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NAN, NANOSONICS LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Sep 4 2019, 10:07 PM
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QUOTE
NAN is a mid-sized healthcare company that makes Trophon, a high-level sterilisation tool for sensitive medical instruments in hospitals and clinical practices.

NAN produced a strong result, outperforming market expectations with revenue up 39 per cent to $84.3 million and NPAT up about 92 per cent to $13. As a result, we noticed a marked improvement in full-year return on equity from 6.3 per cent to 13.3 per cent while net profit margins remained high at 15.8 per cent.

As is the norm, management did not provide any quantitative guidance. It does expect, however, 2020 growth in the North American installed base to echo the pace of this year with a target market share of 75 per cent for that division within three years. Positive commentary around the launch of a new product in 2020 also contributed to the bullish share price sentiment, though at current prices this is factored in.

Although non-executive director and chairman Maurie Stang has gradually sold his shares from 2015 to 2018, he (together with close family members) still holds a significant stake in the company and remains the third-largest shareholder.

General advice only. Elio D'Amato is executive director at Lincoln Indicators, a fund manager and creator of Stock Doctor.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
doc-gt
post Posted: Aug 27 2019, 01:40 PM
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Another solid (but not spectacular) result for NAN was released today. With the SP up 25% on the announcement, it seemed to me like time to sweep a few crumbs off the table.

I missed the investor conference call, but it seems like nothing new was announced in regard to the new disinfection product due for release by the end of the FY "subject to regulatory approval".

So, it would appear in the meantime that the market is quite happy to embrace stratospheric valuations for NAN based on maintenance of the current growth trajectory and an expectation that a new but unspecified product will cause sizeable ripples somewhere in the disinfection market during FY 2021.

 
doc-gt
post Posted: Jun 14 2019, 05:53 PM
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In Reply To: doc-gt's post @ Jun 14 2019, 04:52 PM

Looks like the bullish activity with NAN today relates to a feature article on the company and the CEO in the AFR (see: https://www.afr.com/business/health/why-nan...20190515-p51nq1 )


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
doc-gt
post Posted: Jun 14 2019, 04:52 PM
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NAN is up nearly 7% today on solid volume. It's not far away from the all time price highs which it set shortly after the release of the half yearly report in February.

Perhaps, a few of today's buyers are getting warm and fuzzy about the prospects for the second half, which concludes in a couple of weeks.

In any case, the second half will need to be an absolute cracker, and/or there will need to be some substantive news revealed in the Annual Report due in August about the much anticipated new disinfection product(s) if the current out-sized valuation is going to continue to be accepted by the market.

 
doc-gt
post Posted: Mar 3 2019, 03:35 PM
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In Reply To: dr_dazmo's post @ Feb 5 2019, 08:09 AM

Hi dr daz

That was a very handy half year result from NAN. Certainly better than I had expected.

With a trailing PE ratio of nearly 200 a month before the half year results were announced, I think the SP would surely have withered if the NPAT expectations of analysts hadn't been well exceeded.

Interestingly, in the wake of the half year results, the full year NPAT forecasts from the four analysts who cover NAN remain quite conservative, which probably explains why the forward PE ratios for FY19 (that I derived from Friday's NAN closing price of 4.17 and the earnings forecasts of each of the four analysts) remain well over 100.

Bell Potter - 112
CGAU - 116
Morgans - 122
Wilsons - 136

I took a small amount off the table on the back of the half year earnings results and the consequent all time price highs, but still hold more than enough to be watching NAN with keen interest over the next 6 to 12 to 18 months.

This years AGM in November might be a good one to attend as the long awaited and much anticipated new (non-trophon related) disinfection product will be a maximum of 7 months away from being commercially released and by that time you would have to expect that the company would be just about ready to announce what the new product is. Otherwise, there would be a risk that a description of the product would simply seep out from third parties involved in some of the pre-release marketing activities.

If you look at Nanosonics patent library and net out trophon related patents(as the company has said the next disinfection product will not be trophon related), there's not too many new product candidates that seem to have "potential blockbuster" written over them, but there is one that causes me an itch that I find hard to scratch. I'll be interested to hear from you if you can spot it unprompted.

 
dr_dazmo
post Posted: Feb 5 2019, 08:09 AM
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In Reply To: doc-gt's post @ Feb 4 2019, 04:19 PM

Thanks Doc.Watching with interest.
CheersDr_Dazmo




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Always remember the Golden Rule - Those with the Gold make the Rules!
 


doc-gt
post Posted: Feb 4 2019, 04:19 PM
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In Reply To: doc-gt's post @ Feb 1 2018, 09:21 AM

One year on and another half yearly report is almost due.

In the last 6 weeks, the SP has increased nearly 25% on solid volume, but on no news. And that's despite NAN remaining near the top 20 on Shortmans most shorted stocks list.

Makes me wonder whether the steady accumulators may know or be surmising something positive which is not yet "out there", and if so, whether that will become apparent from the half yearly report, CEO presentation, and subsequent conference call with investors and analysts.

 
doc-gt
post Posted: Feb 1 2018, 09:21 AM
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I understand that the NAN half yearly report will be released on Friday 23 February.

I'm expecting that the global installed base for trophon will have continued to expand at an exciting rate. However, I think two factors will have caused a temporary moderation in the rate of earnings growth:

1) R&D expenditure has been increased substantially to facilitate the commercial development of two new (but as yet unidentified) products.

2) The Managed Equipment Service (MES) model is being used in Britain to grow the installed trophon base in the face of major budgetary constraints for the NHS and the effect of this model on the NAN ledger is basically to recognise capital revenues incrementally over the life cycle of payments for trophon consumables, which means a possible revenue recognition lag will be in play in the short term.



 
doc-gt
post Posted: Oct 22 2017, 08:13 AM
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European guidelines for disinfection of ultrasound transducers have been released: http://www.efsumb.org/safety/resources/201...be_cleaning.pdf

Nanosonics trophon technology gets a favourable mention in the context of the expert committee's recommendations for automated systems of high level disinfection of ultrasound probes for all semicritical procedures.

These guidelines should bode well for uptake of trophon across Europe, particularly in France and Germany.

 
doc-gt
post Posted: Aug 10 2017, 11:12 AM
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The NAN Annual Report has been scheduled for release on Thursday 24 August, with an Investor Conference Call to follow at 11.00am.

 
 


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