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SDA, SPEEDCAST INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 03:14 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 28 2019, 07:17 PM

QUOTE
SpeedCast shares surge
Shares in SpeedCast International are up 19.3 per cent today to $1.14. The stock price is recovering from a low of 76c reached after its full year results.

Substantial holder notices lodged in the past few days suggest the rise is due to stock owners, including Norges Bank (Norway's sovereign wealth fund), recalling shares from short-sellers. This means the short sellers have to buy shares to return stock to Norges Bank. Short positions peaked at 10 million last week, but are now down to 2 million. Norges Bank still owns 13.2 million shares or 5.5 per cent of SpeedCast, according to a substantial holder notice lodged today.

Meanwhile Mitsubishi Financial, which recently purchased Colonial First State Asset Management (CFSAM), today emerged as a substantial holder with 5.5 per cent. It too has lent hundreds of thousands of shares out to short-sellers. By recalling the shares, both Norges and Mitsubishi can sell the returned stock in the rising market to another short seller trying to cover their position.


Total short positions as at 28/8/19 = 8.18%
QUOTE
Mon 2nd Sep, 2019 2,330,838 239,741,258 0.97% 16,986,249 13.72%
Fri 30th Aug, 2019 3,832,881 239,741,258 1.59% 17,748,244 21.60%
Thu 29th Aug, 2019 10,342,319 239,741,258 4.31% 35,318,200 29.28%
Wed 28th Aug, 2019 3,538,073 239,741,258 1.47% 40,293,786 8.78%
Tue 27th Aug, 2019 3,142,408 239,741,258 1.31% 16,076,962 19.55%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=sda
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 28 2019, 07:17 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 28 2019, 02:38 PM

Yikes!! Finished the day down 33% @ $0.755. Volume was 40.2 mil with 6.8 mil shares traded after the close.

AFR are carrying an article - Speedcast boardroom all at Portsea

QUOTE
It is understood UK fund manager Portsea Asset Management has been shaking the trees at Speedcast and can lay some claim to a few of the changes blowing through the satellite owner


Portsea became SDA's biggest shareholder 3 mths ago with 14.2% @ an average SP of $3.61 - no wonder they are miffed.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/speedcast-b...20190828-p52lnt



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 28 2019, 02:38 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 28 2019, 01:40 PM

QUOTE
Shares in SpeedCast International are down a further 21 per cent today, now hitting 89¢. Sydney Morning Herald reporter Colin Kruger notes auditors PWC mentioned a material uncertainty over SpeedCast's ability to continue as a going concern in the half-year accounts, due to the $180.3 million loss, the $6.8 million cash outflows, and $654.6 million debt load.

"The Group's ability to continue as a going concern is dependent on the group having a continued appropriate level of funding from its existing lenders and creditors and/or other sources for at least the next 12 months from the date of this report," the auditors wrote.

Credit Suisse analysts have a 'neutral' rating on the stock with a $1.21 target price, down from $2.20. They note the company is too highly leveraged for many institutional investors to invest in and "recent forecast credibility is low".

They are expecting second-half earnings of $141 million, at the bottom of the company's own forecasts of between $140 million and $150 million. They do not expect SpeedCast to pay any dividends for the next two years, and have reduced their gross profit forecasts for 2019-20 down from $373 million to $357 million.

Meanwhile UBS's Eric Choi considers the satellite communications company a "high risk investment" that may deliver on debt repayment and earnings growth, or not.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 28 2019, 01:40 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 27 2019, 01:22 PM

Updated chart - SP down another 22.12% @ $0.88/share.

Looks like Norges Bank have been shorting - collateral returned on 26/8/19

Notable short alert yesterday
QUOTE
Tue 27th Aug, 2019 3,142,408 239,741,258 1.31% 16,076,962 19.55%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=sda
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 27 2019, 01:22 PM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jul 18 2019, 01:58 PM

SP down 25.22% currently @ $1.26 - this time last year the SP reached a high of $6.80.
2019 HY results in - https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190827/pdf/...wjthy6cq9lj.pdf
Total short positions as at 21/8/19 = 8.25%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SDA

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 18 2019, 01:58 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jul 3 2019, 01:00 PM

Updated chart - 5 year.

SDA now #17 on Shortman's Top 100 with 9.32%. Notable short alerts continue
QUOTE
Wed 17th Jul, 2019 3,080,667 239,741,258 1.28% 5,791,539 53.19%
Tue 16th Jul, 2019 1,444,156 239,741,258 0.60% 3,226,594 44.76%
Mon 15th Jul, 2019 2,547,314 239,741,258 1.06% 2,406,259 105.86%
Fri 12th Jul, 2019 3,105,477 239,741,258 1.29% 3,386,663 91.70%
Thu 11th Jul, 2019 1,039,888 239,741,258 0.43% 2,966,981 35.05%
Wed 10th Jul, 2019 2,910,854 239,741,258 1.21% 5,721,712 50.87%
Tue 9th Jul, 2019 2,267,579 239,741,258 0.94% 5,243,866 43.24%
Mon 8th Jul, 2019 1,696,882 239,741,258 0.70% 6,823,149 24.87%
Fri 5th Jul, 2019 2,320,794 239,741,258 0.96% 12,894,333 18.00%
Thu 4th Jul, 2019 6,592,859 239,741,258 2.75% 25,200,112 26.16%
Wed 3rd Jul, 2019 7,177,813 239,741,258 2.99% 25,908,240 27.70%
Tue 2nd Jul, 2019 6,487,648 239,741,258 2.70% 29,265,903 22.17%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SDA
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


nipper
post Posted: Jul 6 2019, 02:55 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 2 2019, 08:44 PM

Will be a management thing
QUOTE
....back in favour after it announced it had shared in a $US3 billion contract from the US Department of Homeland Security. The contract will be worth around $USS600 million a year or more over five years.

“Speedcast Government is honoured to have been selected as an awardee under the TacCom II vehicle,” said Speedcast Government chief executive Moe Abutaleb. “We are committed to bringing leading-edge technologies, equipment, network, and technical services to support DHS and its end users on this important program.”

TacCom II is designed to provide federal agencies with access to the latest tools and technologies. The contract vehicle features equipment (radios, infrastructure and satellite solutions) and services (systems integration, installation, engineering, and operations and maintenance) to ensure end-to-end transmission of mission-critical data.

The equipment and services offered through the contract vehicle can be used for all types of missions including maritime, airborne and land-based,” the release said yesterday.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 3 2019, 01:00 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 2 2019, 08:44 PM

Sizable short alert yesterday ......

QUOTE
Tue 2nd Jul, 2019 6,487,648 239,741,258 2.70% 29,265,903 22.17%


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SDA

Ugly chart


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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 2 2019, 08:44 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 28 2018, 02:22 PM

QUOTE
satellite communications business SpeedCast International [ had] a shock profit downgrade [that] wiped $340 million off its value on Tuesday.

The company announced to the market on Tuesday morning that its 2019 full year earnings before interest, tax and depreciation was expected to be between $200 million and $215 million, compared to previous expectations from the company's annual general meeting in May of $229 million to $245 million.

... announcement sent the share price plummeting 40.8 per cent to close at $2.06 . Globecomm seems to be a problem, though there are many.

... SDA attributed the downgrade to "weaker performances in enterprise and emerging markets, particularly in the first half of 2019, technical difficulties in one of its contracts, contract churn and delays to expected revenue in a project.".



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 28 2018, 02:22 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 19 2017, 09:45 PM

QUOTE
.. giving it a "big runway to grow"
and equally big to fall. Announced a new acquisition today (Globecomm) but also reported - and lost 30%.

Something is amiss:
QUOTE
Group revenue grew 24% to US$304.9 million (1H 2017: US$246.3 million)

 Underlying EBITDA grew 14% to US$60.4 million (1H 2017: US$53.2 million)

 EBITDA margin impacted by 180 basis points to 19.8% (1H 2017: 21.6%) due to dilution from the UltiSat acquisition in November 2017, phase 1 of the NBN contract, a one-time investment in a key Cruise customer relationship in 1H 2018, and the delay in recovery of the Energy market

 Underlying NPATA grew 37% to US$21.1 million (1H 2017: US$15.4 million)

 Strong operating cash flows (89% of Underlying EBITDA) generated as a result of improved working capital discipline

 Net debt increased from US$388 million at 31 December 2017 to US$430 million at 30 June 2018 as a result of investment in growth including debt refinancing costs and US$20 million for the UltiSat acquisition earnout

Ah, there it is.... "Margin impacted .. due to dilution" plus " Disappointingly, the Energy sector suffered from delays in the market recovery, but we remain bullish about our ability to significantly benefit from the Energy sector's recovery "

And if Globecomm
QUOTE
"complements last year's acquisition of UltiSat. This will double Speedcast's revenue in Government, and add more scale, visibility and capabilities in this strategic growth market",
then expect more margin impact?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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