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OIL, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Dec 12 2017, 10:00 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 23 2017, 09:30 AM

QUOTE
[In the North Sea], the Forties Pipeline System, one of the most important oil conduits in the world, is to be fully halted after a crack was discovered, the link's operator Ineos said. Repairs will take about two weeks, according to a spokesman.

The announcement boosted pricing that had been largely muted over the last week following an OPEC-led agreement by major producers to extend output curbs through the end of 2018. The Brent rally in London pulled New York futures up to near $US58 a barrel.
Tapis priced off Brent; Xmas pump prices unlikely to drop.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 23 2017, 09:30 AM
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QUOTE
.. there is some visibility here in the oil price, given:
- the high degree of OPEC compliance and the strong likelihood of an extension to the output cut agreement;
- the drawdown in US inventories;
- declines in global storage;
- solid world demand especially from oil-hungry emerging markets;
- and a geopolitical risk premium coming back into the market because of the uncertainties now over the Iran deal which sits in Congress and these tensions between Iraq and the Kurds.

The shape of the curve doesn't lie and the recent move from contango to backwardation is an added sign of how tight the crude market has become.
David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff

Why oil could be back to $US80 a barrel a year from now - Jim Rogers
QUOTE
...with trend lines for the Brent crude oil spot price and the five-year forward price. I have long defaulted to watching the five-year forward price for lack of a more fundamentals-based approach to thinking about the equilibrium price of oil. The Brent crude oil spot price is less subject to speculative fluctuations, and is thus a purer approximation of underlying commercial supply and demand factors.

The chart I prepared – which was made before the latest oil-price acceleration in early November – shows the five-year forward oil price picking up after a period of some stability. With the spot price having now moved above the five-year forward price, one could conclude that a trend change is under way. For my part, I'm unsure; but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. ...
Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/why-...m#ixzz4zCqofGp0



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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cooderman
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 07:39 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 7 2017, 05:38 AM

Another big night for Oil. It now seems overbought and some bears may get the pullback they are waiting for, although 55.70s
spot WTI could now become support.

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nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 05:38 AM
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Oil pierces two-year high as Saudi round-up rattles markets
  • by Jessica Summers
QUOTE
Oil prices have climbed $US15 from their nadir this year to more than $US57 a barrel, spurred by a cascade of events that began with widespread arrests among Saudi Arabia's elite. Dozens of princes, government ministers and billionaires were arrested in a sweeping anti-corruption probe, including high-ranking officials involved with state oil producer Saudi Aramco.

The arrests raise "the specter of instability in the kingdom," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, by telephone. "It's another round of jawboning here to get this nervous market higher."

Futures surged as much as 3 per cent in New York to levels last seen in July 2015. Though the [Saudi] shake-up .... underpinned crude's rally, a promise by Nigeria's oil minister to cap production joined with the dollar's drop to add upward momentum as the day progressed.

Oil-market news:
  • Oil stockpiles at the key pipeline hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 400,000 barrels last week, according to a forecast compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Nigeria is ready to meet with the Niger Delta Avengers and other armed groups in the southern oil-rich region, Reuters reports, after the militants ended their truce.
  • U.S. oil rigs targeting crude dropped by eight to 729 last week, the biggest decline since May 2016, according to Baker Hughes data.
Bloomberg

- a " case of don't fight the Bulls " indeed ! Good call, Cooderman



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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cooderman
post Posted: Nov 4 2017, 08:38 AM
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It's a case of don't fight the Bulls at the moment, although some EW traders are calling wave 5 near completion. You would have to
have some respect for their methods, if they are correct.

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cooderman
post Posted: Oct 30 2017, 09:25 AM
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Daily close above April high. Real strong Res. next at 54.60s. A pullback to test the breakout point, wouldn't be a bad thing.

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cooderman
post Posted: Oct 30 2017, 09:15 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 29 2017, 07:27 PM

Not another Frackinginquiry. tongue.gif

 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 29 2017, 07:27 PM
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Yes, a hydrocarbon free world is cost free. There is only upside.

https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports
QUOTE
The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) described the assessment as "conservative" but said it did highlight potential for "significant" growth for the NT's economy.

"We think the actual reality will be significantly greater than that," director of the NT branch of APPEA Matthew Doman said. "But nonetheless they're very significant job numbers, it'd be a very significant economic boost to the Territory."

Mr Doman said the report also reflected the small geographical footprint fracking would have on the NT. In the Gale scenario, fracking would occupy 475.9 square kilometres of land out of the Territory's 1,421,000 square kilometres.


QUOTE
Opponents of fracking used assessment to argue any potential boost to the Territory's economy would not outweigh environmental and community concerns.

"The report makes it really clear that fracking is no saviour for the Territory's economy," said Naomi Hogan from the lobby group Lock the Gate Alliance. "We're not going to see a big increase in jobs... even if we were going to go full pelt with their best-case scenario for fracking wells. "I think this report asks more questions than it answers but certainly makes clear that [fracking] will not be a jobs or economic saviour for the Territory."




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Oct 29 2017, 06:56 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 29 2017, 06:16 PM

nip

I remember when the boss of NATO a few years ago stated that his organisation had seen sufficient evidence for them to conclude that Uncle Vlad and his spooks had been conducting a concerted campaign to undermine popular support for fracking in Europe. At the time his comments were either ridiculed as paranoid or simply ignored.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/201...oppose-fracking

But if you view those comments from the context of what has been shown the Russians did in US aand French presedential elections, in the brexit referendum and elsewhere like in Ukraine then I reckon we in the West missed an early tell about one of Uncle Vlad's main methods of operation.

I suspect that fracking in Australia other than in Qld is pretty much a lost cause. We now have the ridiculous situation where the popular view in NSW is that there should be no fracking in that state - that is, no development of onshore gas reserves within NSW - but for some reason Qld gas, which is a product of fracking, should be sold to NSW consumers at a discount to domestic market prices.

I engaged in a exchange with one of the activists from the Liverpool Plains anti-fracking movement and when I noted that the Russians have form for muddying the waters with regards gas production his response was that he had been at the centre of that movement from day one and he had not once seen any Russians.

Anyway I've taken my profits and suffered my losses from dabbling in the gas industry on the east coast so I no longer have a dog in that fight.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: Oct 29 2017, 06:16 PM
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span spin spun

QUOTE
A new economic assessment of the impact hydraulic fracking would have on the Northern Territory shows the financial benefit does not warrant a lifting of the current moratorium, a Canberra-based think tank says. Research Director at the Australia Institute think tank, Rod Campbell, said the assessment showed even in the best-case scenario the economic development for the NT was not outstanding.

"It points out... that an unconventional gas industry in the Northern Territory is very uncertain and likely to be quite small," he said. "Economically this is a small marginal potential benefit for potentially significant costs.....
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-28/frac...nk-tank/9096180

or.....

QUOTE
Lifting Labor's fracking ban in the Northern Territory could theoretically boost the local economy by as much as $17.5 billion or $674 million annually in real terms between next year and 2043, and create up to 13,600 jobs over the same period, according to a new study.

The results of some long-awaited economic modelling, commissioned by the Gunner government's independent fracking inquiry and unexpectedly released today, also show that the federal government could expect to receive up to $5.5 billion in extra taxes.

The 230-page report, produced by ACIL Allen Consulting, found the change in real income for the rest of Australia (excluding the NT) from letting the northern gas industry rip could be as high as $12.5 billion from 2018—2043, accounting for lower gas prices, taxes and other benefits.............
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/m...0008c17859f2d80

at least the latter had a link to the report : https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
 


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