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joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 11:14 AM


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Posts: 1,353

$spx
simple ABC is my main focus, the overnight cash-implied front month cfd has already achieved the target and holding the level, that suggests we're going to go a lot higher
here's the cash hours view
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iCLbT3cH/
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 12:15 PM


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Posts: 1,353

remember the BB's rule of thumbs

"losers average losers"

PTJ

if your short-sell-the-dip idea doesnt keep dipping then dont add to the non-dipping-bid
“It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.”
George Soros
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 15 2020, 06:30 PM


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Posts: 1,353

#bullish
Business News
April 15, 2020 / 1:28 PM / Updated 5 hours ago
Australia consumer sentiment collapses to 30-year low on recession risks
Swati Pandey
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi..._source=twitter

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 13 2020, 02:11 PM


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Posts: 1,353

#stats
Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 3 Although this question seemed ridiculous 3 wks ago, could the S&P 500 actually close higher in 2020? At a YTD loss of >30%, it would be the first year to ever be down that much and close green. The current largest reversal is 2009 at down 25.1%, yet closed higher for the yr.




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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 11:43 AM


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Posts: 1,353

Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick

stocks had their best week since '74.
$nya $djind $spx
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 06:00 PM


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Posts: 1,353

Chris Rutherglen‏ @CRutherglen Jan 14

In 1980, the gold price traded at a 70% premium to the model price. During the 2011 top, the price peaked exactly at the model price. This suggest: 1) 2011 was not a bubble, 2) the blow-off-top is still ahead. By 2022, model price should be ~$3000. A 70% premium would be ~$5000.
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log scale:


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David Rosenberg‏ @EconguyRosie 1

Money supply growth is running at 12.2% on a year-on-year basis, the fastest in two decades and ongoing. The world’s above-ground gold stock grows on average by 1%-to-2% per year. Guess what the investment recommendation is from this discrepancy?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 01:24 PM


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retract that call, no sellers arrived ......xjo in bull mode still
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 01:04 PM


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$xjo 5320 looks HOD .....we'll prob head to LOD into the close to protect over passover/easter weekend
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 02:12 PM


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Posts: 1,353

#longtail
bulls win again $xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 04:25 PM


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The_Real_Fly‏ @The_Real_Fly 12h12 hours ago Portnoy is now ALL IN short $BA from this morning, getting SQUEEZED -- down $500k




the above is how with decent timing on buying stock, forced short covering can aid an investor, it adds liquidity to the auction, forces trade by the shorter benefiting the buyer (when bought at the right time!)




#timing
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 02:22 PM


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and they found the value zone, late arvo bulls ...here they come again $xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 01:32 PM


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yes, almost got fried myself
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 01:32 PM


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bids just vanished ....not a top signal next few days for bulls $xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 01:00 PM


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psss ...only this time, we'll bid after lunch
$xjo
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 06:20 PM


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interestingly, speaking of which, from the US
#REIT
Tracy Alloway‏ @tracyalloway
https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1246949203357532160
The recent sell-off in REITS was worse than even October/November 2008.
Via Morgan Stanley:



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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 05:41 PM


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Posts: 1,353

if you've been saving a deposit you maybe in luck as some prices fall your way
https://www.domain.com.au/news/nsw-governme...s-fines-946902/

NSW government cracks down on holidaymakers, threatens fines
Sue Williams Apr 6, 2020
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 05:11 PM


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Posts: 1,353

Jesskier‏ @JessCluess The headline's good, but the rest is even better




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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 03:43 PM


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Posts: 1,353

until you zoom in on the price dunt look like much
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 02:03 PM


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no bling all ring
$xjo ....if you wanted an almost text book version of trending, this is it!
intraday, higher highs higher lows, post-lunch sell-off missing ......
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 03:13 PM


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Posts: 1,353

Stock Market Commentary 4/3/2020
By Lawrence G. McMillan

The oversold rally that was underway last week ran out of steam as soon as it ran into the declining 20-day moving average of $SPX. There is now resistance at 2650. The 2175-2190 level still qualifies as support, and it has not been tested at all.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, despite the fact that they have curled up ovhe past few days. These buy signals would be canceled if the ratios rise to new highs.

Market breadth continues to swing wildly back and forth For the record, both breadth oscillators are still on sell signals after a terrible day on Wednesday, which was a very decisive "90% down day."

Meanwhile, $VIX has declined enough to close below its 20- day moving average for the last four days, and to close at its lowest price since March 11th. That sounds bullish, until one realizes that $VIX is still near 50. So, with $VIX at 50, it's hard to justify that as being bullish for stocks.

It's not only breadth and volatility that are displaying characteristics that haven't been seen since 2011 or 2008. This does mark the end of the "buy the dips" and "TINA" era that had dominated market thinking, really since 2009 and certainly since 2011. This is a true bear market, plain and simple. Hence, a "core" bearish position is warranted -- certainly as long as $SPX remains below 2730. Hence, while buy signals can be traded, we are continuing to be cautious.
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 01:37 PM


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Posts: 1,353

#contrarianish

(hint: it's a word, better than bullish or bearish, try it on, see how it fits......)

Helene Meisler‏
@hmeisler 1

Consensus Bulls 22%



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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 11:31 AM


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Callum Thomas‏ @Callum_Thomas
https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1246543405007724544

Here's another analog to ponder...



h/t @TimmerFidelity $SPX $SPY

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 09:06 AM


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$nya $djind $spx#insiderbuying

SentimenTrader‏Verified account @sentimentrader
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1...171955436363776

Corporate insiders are buying their own stock. And "smart money" hedgers are net long more than $10 billion of equity index futures for one of the few times in the past decade. Should stocks keep falling, it'll be yet another sign we're not in Kansas anymore.



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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 10:33 PM


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US jobless claims

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 09:54 PM


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emerging markets

Macro Charts@MacroCharts

Emerging Markets just suffered the most aggressive selling purge on record (like almost everything else).

Flows are starting to turn up again.

Similar inflections marked every Major bottoming phase in 20 years – and preceded ALL of EM's biggest historic rallies.

$EEM $MXEF

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 12:37 PM


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considering $NYA/$spx had a 92% down day the local aussie indexes are holding up well
am slightly biased bid side a lot of the volatility dissipating
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 09:02 PM


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Ryan Detrick, CMT
@RyanDetrick

S&P 500 down 14.0% in March.

Only Oct '08, Aug '98, and Oct '87 were worst going back to the Great Depression.

One year later, S&P 500 was higher 7%, 38%, and 11% after those three horrible months.

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 10:04 PM


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#insiderbuying

" Everyone dumped Stocks in March – *except* smart money Corporate Insiders.

Insiders went on the 2nd largest buying spree in two decades – bigger than March'09, Aug'11 and Dec'18.

The buying has ticked down, as it did after every bottom – they're *fully loaded*.

$ES_F $SPX $SPY
Macro Charts@MacroCharts

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 09:11 PM


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yes

but with obvious proviso one also knows the risks, sets the levels, defines how much to risk based on outcomes and grows a significant pair of necessaries

the first way is to consider who is playing and what discounted value they might be chasing, this is more of an industry point of view, in other words if youre a boutique funds manager you'll have an idea
of the trade zone consiidered value

the second is purely a technical pressure based on two major sets of data, how much traded at the bid versus the offer at during the previous session and the close of session, what the breadth was, did it appear in the lows swings that sellers failed to add pressure, in other words when the buying stopped did prices slump due to lack of bid rather than increase of selling

thirdly there is a structure regime i trade, basically pattern recognition, i dont need indicators mostly because theyre false positives in this phase, you can say price cannot go in one direction permanently
so it must have structure, that structure is also a defining of value, value is psychology

so it is not a case of seeing the future but seeing probable actions of the other player on the opposite side of my opinion

every sale is met by every purchase, the important question i ask is "is one (strong) account buying from many (weak) accounts or are many weak accounts buying from one strong account, which phase is that happening in, what is the context, what was the relative price swing that has led to this point, what is the likely constructive target where the counter-swing will hit (buyers/seller) opposing that swing

the bottom line is whom you ask the question-to, what kind of data they have and what is the size of their account
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 10:18 AM


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Posts: 1,353

Australian astrophysicist Dr. Daniel Reardon had to be admitted to the hospital to have four magnets removed from his nose, which got stuck there while he worked on inventing a necklace that warns you when you touch your face. "The doctors thought it was quite funny," Reardon said.

Astrophysicist gets several magnets stuck up his nose while working on coronavirus device
"However, the academic realised the electronic part he had did the opposite �" and would only complete a circuit when there was no magnetic field present. “I accidentally invented a necklace that buzzes continuously unless you move your hand close to your face,” he said."

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1244615884540465152
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 02:43 PM


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https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1YqxoQWBXPjGv
tv
ausbiz LIVE
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 12:14 PM


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$silver front month contract is rolling down as i type, gold in USD's front month contract made a concise 76.4% bounce unlike it's comex counterpart contract which made within a few points of a double top retracementso neither has managed to make headway further than those bounce highs, mostly driven by (see Perth mint) retail

the COT report clearly has not seen the commercial go from historic extreme sellside to a bullish bidside, asks the questiongiven the current global index swing south are we in an inflationary (pro gold) or a deflationary period (con gold)
conversely if the commercials decide to pullback from their extreme sell to open positions the upside would have few limits
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 12:00 PM


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very well constructed upday in progress $xjo
may suggest, not be bullish not bearish, be trade-ish


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 11:42 AM


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ok, so not index trading directly,this maybe completely bogus, did some searches and the tweet has some backing but how much efficacy ?
First Squawk‏ @FirstSquawk CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: CHINESE SCIENTISTS HAVE DEVELOPED A NEW WEAPON TO COMBAT THE VIRUS. THEY SAY THEY HAVE FOUND A NANOMATERIAL THAT CAN ABSORB AND DEACTIVATE THE VIRUS WITH 96.5-99.9% EFFICIENCY

5:49 AM - 29 Mar 2020
----------------------------------------------------------
#education #DJIND #SP500 #$NYA

Walter Deemer‏ @WalterDeemer
1/3 The sensational breadth on Tues/Wed/Thu led to a lot of talk about breadth thrusts. The most reliable ones, IMO, are Whaley Breadth Thrusts (5 days) and my own Breakaway Momentum (10 days).
http://docs.mta.org/pdfs/dowaward-2010.pdf
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 10:06 PM


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Posts: 1,353

in short no, if he has to adjust, never known an algo/bot that didnt need adjustment to the market phase, there's lag time, the bigger the volaltility the bigger the gain but inverse loss too

there is no correlation from a point for point move, there is no mechanism, price being dynamic, it is by probabilities, you have nailed several parametres that lift probabilities in your favour

non of which takes into consideration that you have entered and exited with enough margin for error and can have enough turnover (roundtrips that exceed the cost of the trip)

in other words if there was a correlation outside of the trim we'd probably know about it already and it'd become worthless

so the trim can be accomplished, that is, the win:loss ratio can be skewed in your favour but i'll be frank, only a rocket scientist who can ignore risk and have maximum disciipline can run that trim if done by hand

so if he has enough capital to withstand the constant drawdowns he'll definintely get in some phases, plus he can outrun the fees with each trip then it can be done

unlikely by your common garden home retail trader
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 09:55 PM


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Posts: 1,353

he's trying to play arbitrage

in a bull it's a win, the bull itself gets you out of jail, just like bogus indicators, the bull gets everyone out of jail, the percentages work in your favour
sure you have the occasional loser but in toto played consistently the bull lets you off the hook

in a bear it's pot luck unless you add in a couple if ingredients:

firstly that the stock is at two inflection points:
a previous significant vpoc (volume point of control) where a lot of transactions occurred regardless of the dates
that that zone co-coincides with a discount that you know fund managers will chase of have black box buying set to trigger


so even in a bounce like a 20-25% bounce in a bear you can win but the risk:reward is heavily skewed in a bear to the seller
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 05:35 PM


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"...he uses the futures market to guide his BOTO trades."
that means he's trading the contract even if you said
he uses the futures market for BOTO trades.

if he's trading the spi the spi comes direct from the exchange (unless it's a synth)

curler
what would be the purpose of data "that matches" when the futures exchange data is itself the data you need ?
if it's a bot the data comes directly from the exchange, nothing to do with the cash market (index constituents) he's trading a contract

there's no free link, open an account with a data provider to find the data you want spifutures.com.au/australian-index-trading/

are you referring to indicia or intepretive measures such as the advancers minus decliners or adv+dec's, how much was transacted at the offer versus bid etc ?

from the cash hours perspective, if he uses the futures market he wont know concisely anything he'll only know after the print what has happened, not what will happen in the cash market
while the future can set an opening bias in the cash on some days he needs to know that resets of contract, divies, expirations do not necessarily determin the cash direction and intraday how the future acted in the overnights maybe vastly different
unto itself the future is its own beast but it wont give an absolute insight into the cash as the sydney exchange, well, interpretive dancing with let's hit the stops just coz we can !!


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 28 2020, 08:30 AM


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$NYA $DJIA $SPX $RUT

Stock Market Commentary
3/27/2020
By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks exploded out of a massive oversold condition this week and put together the best 3-day rally since....1931.

That sounds a bit ominous, doesn't it? 1931 and 1932 were two of the worst stock market years on record.

In any case, the bulls are enjoying the rally, and it has generated some buy signals from our indicators.
Oversold rallies typically rally up to, and slightly above, the declining 20-day moving average. That moving average is at 2670 and declining at the rate of 30 or 40 points per day, so we're almost there. On an overshoot of that moving average, we might see the oversold rally extend up towards 2730 or so.

The $SPX chart remains bearish, despite the strength of the oversold rally. All trendlines are pointed lower, and there are many pockets of overhead resistance.

Perhaps the most positive thing this week is that all of the equity-only put-call ratios (standard, weighted, and CBOE) are on buy signals, as is the Total put-call ratio. You can see from Figures 2 and 3 that these buy signals have come from extreme highs.

Market breadth has improved tremendously on the rally this week. In fact, the breadth oscillators are now on buy signals.

There is a $VIX "spike peak" buy signal in effect (from March 17th), although it hasn't performed well. In a more negative vein, $VIX has remained extremely high for a good reason. It is lower than realized volatility, but is obviously being "dragged" upward by the currently high levels of realized vol.

Our conclusion is that a "core" bearish position should still be held, but that these short-term counter-trend buy signals can also be traded.
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 11:58 PM


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Posts: 1,353

The Chart Store
@TheChartmeister

[attachment=52619:rallies_...n_280320.jpg]
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 08:58 PM


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SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
1h
57% of S&P 500 stocks have triggerd a MACD Buy Signal.

Similar to many *HISTORIC* bottoms

$SPX rallied 92% of the time 1 year later by median +18%, NASDQ Composite rallied 100% of the time 6 months later by median +18%

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 04:02 PM


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Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 5h5 hours ago Best 3-day gain for the Dow since 1931. Up more than 21% the past 3 days.




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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 26 2020, 02:24 PM


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of the big high > low swing $xjo we have hit a small wall at 27.2% which is the first sign we maybe in a bounce only
normally in a bounce after such a big swing we'd expect the cash index to achieve 38.2% (ish) at 5471
5300 has some small vpoc hurdles, so we'll look carefully the cash progresses, distinctly diff to overnights

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 26 2020, 09:53 AM


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$xjo as the market finds it's own steam without the discount hunters you'll have more sessions where the index comes back and taps/retests the opening low
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 06:08 PM


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$xjo closed 4998 now printing overnights cash implied 5132's
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 03:31 PM


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after retesting the roundish number more buy programs kicked in

4800 mid arvo, cash closed +157 post the SPA $xjo closed +262
that's pro intent shown to bid up


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 03:29 PM


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keep in mind what drives a market
clue: it's not the news
news fits the trend
trend drives news, if you always waited for the right news to fit your fear you'd never make a decent trade, it'd be pot-luck

news should fit, sometimes there's a rogue wave just like oil tanker captains fear, but in general the trends define good news of bad news in the making
trading news is generally a dumb idea unless you can pre-interpret releases (for example non-farms)
suggestion : trade the price not your ideas around the price


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 03:08 PM


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Posts: 1,353

the pros showed their intent again today $xjo
smashed up the last 10 minutes of cash AND the SPA
weak to strong
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 11:33 AM


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Posts: 1,353

Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 5h5 hours ago Here are the largest Dow gains ever and what happened next.




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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 09:52 AM


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Posts: 1,353

dont worry about "seeing much further" allow the pricing to dictate immediate and intermediate direction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

contradictory to that comment is this(a correctly drawn channel)
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Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 21h21 hours ago If you connect the 1929 high for the Dow with the 1999 high and extend... The good news is now Mr. Market can reset before another assault higher.
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 24 2020, 08:29 PM


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Posts: 1,353

you have to sing along with the Wutang or Wuhan clan when it sings

rarely see this type of volatility, take it while you can

wink.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 24 2020, 03:47 PM


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who wants to suspend trading for 14 days ?
purely arbitrary time period

anyways

wuhan,

woohoo or

saywotnow?

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 24 2020, 03:06 PM


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$xjo another buy-up at the close
pros showing the hand
intent to buy
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 24 2020, 11:59 AM


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to quote trader Kate Bush "we're gunna grind up that hill, we're gunna search out weak shorts...no problems....."
$xjo
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 23 2020, 10:26 PM


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treasuries went on an open wallet spree

so have most markets

big up day coming

$$

MAJOR EXPANSION OF FED LENDING PROGRAMS
-QE has no cap
-Fed will buy $250 billion in MBS this week
-Fed will buy $375 billion in Treasuries this week
-Relaunch TALF to support consumer and business debt
-Launch two facilities to support corporate debt markets
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 09:27 PM


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interesting chart

from The Chart Report

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 02:36 PM


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#observation #experience
Stock Market Commentary 3/20/2020
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Stocks broke below the December 2018 lows this week, which was a support area that many had expected to hold.

This market has blown through every supposed support area there was.

The decline held at 2280. The 2280 level was last seen in February 2017. So in a matter of three weeks, the market has wiped out three years worth of gains.

Bear markets move fast, but this is one of the fastest of them all -- on the order of the most volatile markets of all time, 1931-1933.

I hope that's the ONLY parallel with that time period. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they continue to race higher. They are now reaching or exceeding the heights reached in December 2018.

Market breadth has been swinging wildly back and forth, The breadth oscillators remain on sell signals, but are very oversold.

The major trend of $VIX remains higher, although one wonders if $VIX can really go too much higher. There is a spike peak on the $VIX chart, which is a buy signal that doesn't seem to be having much effect.

In summary, the market is tentatively trying to get to the point where it can start an oversold rally. We have a number of short- term bullish indicators. However the main trend of the market remains bearish, since we do not have buy signals from any of our intermediate-term indicators. So, we are still maintaining a "core" bearish position, but will trade the short-term bullish signals around it.

charts:
optionstrategist.com/weekly-charts?goal=0_2f928c56ef-2262374859-394569658&mc_cid=2262374859&mc_eid=c5d2a13444

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 12:10 PM


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an excellent video, low on hype high on interesting tidbits
both camps can get something from this
https://youtu.be/Hax7EPFysqY
Antarctica : What happens if the 'Doomsday' Glacier collapses?
47,816 views
•Mar 16, 2020
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 03:27 PM


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Posts: 1,353

California lock down on such a winters daaaaaaayyyyyyy
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 01:44 PM


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the technical look inc overnight, shows how much is transacted, normally overnights do not affect cash hours
the lunch gig
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 01:37 PM


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Posts: 1,353

here's the plan
let prices drift upto lunch, we have lunch, save all the sell orders, come back from lunch dump all the sells
buy the low
hows that sound ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 12:15 PM


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honkers on a nice run, looks good construction too

this was the first hint we're were near a low and forced buying came in, check the chart for date/time :

https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...st&p=907147
while there is strong pro activity the actual swing happens on very quiet subdued trade in the Aus cash a lot of the time
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 10:29 AM


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expect a lot of head fakes, while people have switched into bear mode the buyers dont have to push into the offer so you'll get a lot of what-if looking patterns ....maybe change your profile slightly to allow for this part of consolidation phase
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pat Hennessy, CMT‏ @pat_hennessy 5h5 hours ago A trader on the block desk at one of the major retail brokerages said its all puking from advisors... selling IG bonds and equities to buy treasury ETFs. Said normally 300 block orders a day, up to 1000/day now

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 01:42 AM


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in my orthodox charting on a weekly basis both $dax and $spx have achieved their "4th wave extreme of one lessor degree"

the $xjo is just shy of doing the same

at 2.37am AEST both the $dax and $spx are very smoothly heading higher, i am long, the tone has changed, the exchange has changed, maybe the resumtion of the monthly uptrends are resumed

again, not to be precious and oversize, given the extremes in the media and social media the background bodes well for a low build to set in


less frantic upward energy and grinding up trend will do just fine for the next few days and weeks to take the time to see if we need a retest of the lows
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 02:07 PM


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retail cfd's printing 75% buy to open sp200
that's nuts
need butchers gloves to do that
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 02:01 PM


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$xjo
mate, look for the cfd's positioning, i post them as bias tips, youre in a donwtrend, each lift is being sold into
so if the cfd retails are big long at 70 ish % that means theyre gunna get run over, theyre against the trend, use that to balance your trade set-up
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 01:36 PM


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keeping the analysts busy
Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 11:49 AM


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lots of sign posts but with lots of forks in the roads !



Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 11:10 AM


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eb said: not sure about asx200 as it still weak but really over sold level.
next level 4770-4720 appears next trend level
just way too many cfd retailers trying to pick the bottonn at 72% BTO todayno fear all bidding the never ending dip
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 09:23 AM


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$xjo how much follow-thru on yesterdays late arvo buy programs, eb ?

small break-out above 5303's likely to induce chase and covering .....altho, cfd's suggest not much shorting currently counter-intuitive, still too bullish...
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 03:42 PM


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eb writes his own version of "when there's blood in the streets..." :


seems like whole world is gonna come to an end................
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 02:58 PM


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get up there blue !

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 02:45 PM


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nothing goes in one direction forever
true story
#volatility cheer squad
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 02:44 PM


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$xjo
buy programs kick in 4900
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 12:58 PM


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I think the $dax has found its low
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 05:39 PM


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Attached Image
all your fault, eb
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 04:25 PM


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does anyone have an outlook for Au in AUD when this trend reverses:

Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 03:54 PM


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despite the US and Aus hit-up in mining stocks yesterday and today, gold (in USD's) is still displaying sell-side structure inline with the larger daily rotation, the more the construction plays out (lack of bid + impulsive sell after sideways chop) should leave open the idea that bounces are oppostunities to exit trapped or long positions that are "doubtful"
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 02:59 PM


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keep sharp eye on the SPA
for mine pros have shown their intent to bid up the market (not mark-up, bid up)
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 10:59 AM


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$xjo with the inexorable bid !

slow squeez ....
price goes up sideways or down, the explanation we give it is rarely what's actually going on..... wink.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 09:53 AM


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solid buying $xjo but dried up pretty quickly...sideways shuffling plenty of support holding the index up tho....waiting for honkers to get underway
$xjo retrace fracca over 79% of the lift and $spx had the lift then slumped 88%

....both look they reached as far down as they could then got supported
looks like several days of this base building stuff
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 08:45 PM


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platinum went on special so bought the big dip, missed the thrust ratio low by two point and had to pay up after chasing is
maybe take a few more day to play out but i like how it is playing out

$dax now have trapped shorts - looks like "coiling" for a rip north, hanging onto this long is hard work, shouldnt be but the dax, yaknow

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 05:19 PM


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bought small size longs $dax
daily basis has reached an orthodox level for a rotation
not precious on it .......how much more can extreme reach extremities ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 04:56 PM


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top post !
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 02:31 PM


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about due for the words "no one wants to make price discovery" to make a big come back
as dumb as risk on risk off
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 02:26 PM


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pro bargain hunters soaking up late sellers today $xjo

if the pro buyers can overcome we may get a kicker into tomorrow
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 11:32 AM


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keep in mind this (when shorting)
Attached Image
in other words dont be aggressive either way, sudden liquidity bidside can kill ann account just as much as (algo) shock news
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 10:53 AM


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this medium is too slow to make calls like that and i'm too engaged in those times
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 10:52 AM


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and more of the same
Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 10:02 AM


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$xjo looking for 5755's today, at least working on that as a target probably simple updownup sequence then retest fews from now of the low

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 15 2020, 10:24 AM


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from another observer with a long history within markets:(yes, i realise it doesnt affect decisions on an intraday, still nice to see what others see that have larger perspective and are less "reactive")
Stock Market Commentary 3/13/2020
By Lawrence G. McMillan

Markets are in total disarray. I traded through the Crash of '87, and through the Financial Crisis of 2008, and this is worse. On Wednesday night, March 11th,
I was asked "Do you think we're going to crash?" My reply was, "I think we already have."
Extreme oversold and volatile conditions exist, as do a few buy signals. An oversold rally -- and I am speaking about one that lasts more than a day, which is all we've had so far -- generally reaches and slightly overshoots the declining 20-day moving average. That could mean a rally as far as 3000, closing the gaps on the chart.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. They won't generate buy signals until they roll over and begin to trend lower, and since they are 21-day moving averages, that's not going to happen anytime soon.




Market breadth has been the worst in history. The "stocks only" breadth oscillator is at the lowest level in its history, at -1464.

Volatility has gone crazy. $VIX traded at 77.57 on March 12th, the highest level since the financial crisis, when $VIX spiked up towards 90 and was in the 80's on several days. $VIX didn't exist during the Crash of '87, but when its formula was invented in 1993, the CBOE back-tested the data for the Crash, and they estimate that it would have reached 150 at that time and remained above 100 for the next six trading days. Even if the market rallies, $VIX is likely to remain in the 40's and 50's for a while, as is its usual wont in the aftermath of devastating market declines.

The trend of $VIX remains higher. The trend change was registered in a very timely manner on February 20th, right before all of this began. The circled area on the lower right of the $VIX chart shows when this began.

In summary, the major trend is down. Oversold conditions are at record levels, though, and so a considerable rally could unfold. But I would expect a retest of the lows after that rally fades. The bulls are used to "V" bottoms for the last 7 or 8 years, but that may be changing finally. Wait for confirmed sell signals, and even then don't chase rallies.

charts: optionstrategist.com/weekly-charts?goal=0_2f928c56ef-8c68233b33-394569658&mc_cid=8c68233b33&mc_eid=c5d2a13444
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 15 2020, 12:36 AM


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and one other widget

Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
27m
I keep P&F charts on 34 global indexes. Not one is on a buy. That is a global Bullish Percent Index of 0%.


my contrarian heart did a jump but even so such an extreme has been a continuation signal so, again, not a good idea to be precious on positional trades

#tradeyourlevels
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 11:19 PM


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on Feb 5th Walter made his first insightful comment and today another:


Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
Feb 5
Short term wave counts on several indexes suggest that the market is at risk of a downside acceleration.

Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
6m
Yesterday's final hour was the largest hour-to-hour point gain for the DJIA since at least 2001 and probably in history.

https://twitter.com/waltergmurphy
  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 05:36 PM


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kudos, Eb

  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 01:11 AM


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bah, technical shmecknical

$xauusd

#channel

Attached Image



$xauusd signals larger rotation, maybe an ABC correction but look for the base of the orthodox channel to break to confirm momo is part of trend construct $$
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 09:18 PM


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and .....we're limit up

Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 05:22 PM


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time for consolidation, Mick ?
(RMS/SPX good example)
some value if the hedging is right ?
pretty solid rotation in USD's ...when the AUD starts to climb the discounted value already bought will be attractive to sell so double edged gig there
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 02:22 PM


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$XJO
we just smashed thru the ratio so that's a good sign and we did it on an impulsive bid construct
the Aug 2011 low to this years high was retraced at 2/3's that's 66.6%
pretty damn good place to risk some longs


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 02:12 PM


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busy day !
$xjo needs to breeak previous swing ratio at 5293 cash
this is what you call tapping the range on uber small size ....

Attached Image



expecting a good rebate this month ph34r.gif tongue.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 02:10 PM


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$xjo
thazza long tail day ....close in the green ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 11:57 PM


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fyi

in the cfd front month contract

$spx has just travelled 100% of the 2007 decline

that's usually a 1:1 ratio in a bull trend to watch for and has given me several set-ups, it clearly defines risk

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 10:53 PM


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it's a mad mad mad world

Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 07:38 PM


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let's play will it limit down today
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 07:27 PM


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scratched that pretty quickly, every time $xauusd looks like bids coming the thing gets run over
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 06:17 PM


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$xauusd caught a bid, looking well constructed
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 02:25 PM


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this is like the whacky races
xjo cfd longs retail (all accounts) just went to 71% long
that's 29% fear !! blink.gif

skewed data ? nup, skrewed perception
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 11:53 AM


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just caught an uber with palladium, nice

lot's over-extended "assets" with buy-to-open are contracting
wide swings here offer as much risk as reward but i'm still inclined to play small

bwark puk puk
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 11:49 AM


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inverted ratio of 27.2% at 5419 $xjo cash (sp200)
with a 300+ point downer we're about due for whip upstairs
amazingly is long retail cfd's are average 65% longs last few sessions
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 11:28 AM


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and another
Attached Image
200BB into a market that's fleeing
more credit debt
the guys clueless how markets work
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 11:11 AM


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bans travel from Europe
that's what you call hyper-polerisation ...and plain dumb
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 09:30 AM


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quotes of the week

yep we're selling, we're back to offers, what bid?
price action is pretty clean esp on $dax

also cannot define if $xauusd is now in a downtrend (daily basis) and palladium has shown enough to think its in a downtrend daily basis but both metals maybe just lacking bidside liquidity due to account exposure coverage and not seeing any aggressive selling
only mislead think there's a safe haven in a contraction
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 05:43 PM


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@cooderman" I prefer currencies or Gold any day of the week."take a gander at $pdm palladium, looking like confirming a rotation of the weekly uptrend (at least)
STO's with stop 2390
sentiment is overly keen to sell side in cfd retail so not beign precious about the gig but looks good for a swing t
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 01:22 PM


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$xjo
next level 5743
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 01:04 PM


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$xjo
tried several times to hold the 38.2% level but no bids....stair stepper
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 10:03 AM


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bargain hunters $xjo chasing discounted values, not a lot of that around, but plenty in % terms
holding above 5805's would be first signal a larger rotation upwards is in play (38.2% retrace of yesterdays lift)
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 03:21 PM


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$xjo 401point upday but so far fits a bounce better than a rejection of the downswing
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 10:02 AM


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$xjo

5920 then 6050 areas seem most likely targets in the cash equiv.
unlikely today is anything but a relief day
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 11:34 PM


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limit down II

Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 06:27 PM


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don't see that everyday

Attached Image
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 01:20 PM


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$xauusd on rotation too.....all close-out bid-side liquidity in action
margin calls effect those accounts too (to cover the the trades in the red)
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 09:44 AM


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that idea didnt last very long !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 09:20 AM


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looking for a longtail upday $xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 5 2020, 10:10 AM


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$xjo $sp200 cfd
retail longs at 70%
pudnockers
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 4 2020, 01:42 PM


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$xjo retail cfd's still way too bully at 65% BTO

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 4 2020, 01:41 PM


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word has it, long toilet paper
true story
blink.gif huh.gif
onya straya
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 01:38 PM


Group: Member
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$xjo
RBA cuts 25BP's
that adds to the monthly uptrend going thru its interruption
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 12:41 PM


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$xjo 6607 looks reachable before a retest lower
lots of relief needs to shake off the selling
the US looks like a very large range-bound effort for a while
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 09:51 PM


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the market in general is in reset mode, the ASX200 has a long way to go to reset the large monthly uptrend

if you were to take the stake you have currently placed in this vehicle and project forward, from the time you first became stuck in the same price range within this vehicle, ask yourself
where could that stake be (re)placed given the opportunities that are currently emerging, versus, the probability that you'll still be in the same price range in another 12 months when the current/coming opportunities have moved on

  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 07:57 PM


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unverified, but, contrast !
Mustafa Altıntaş‏ @MstfAltnt Feb 23

Attached Image


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 03:02 PM


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"trade for long enough, you'll see everything...."
did the pro's bid the late arvo?
didnt look that way, but the late arvo was flattish, .........selling into strength ?


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 12:33 PM


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SP200 $xjo
way too many retail cfd's want to be long
..suggest not be precious about holding
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 1 2020, 10:14 AM


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a global temperature contributing factor highlighted, or simply a sleight of hand in presentation ?...worth a read


https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/14...mets-over-china
Attached Image



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Mar 1 2020, 10:05 AM


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Why Milankovitch Cycles Can't Explain Earth's Current Warming

By Alan Buis,
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2949/why-mila...urrent-warming/



dynamic picture: https://twitter.com/i/status/1233402800379437059
Attached Image



Sean Sublette‏ @SeanSublette Feb 28 "One of the best illustrations I've seen of Milankovitch Cycles and their role in natural climate change.


If you're not familiar with them, take a quick look in this NASA blog."

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 02:02 PM


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$xauusd on the sell, basic target 1603's ...likely 1560's next few weeks
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 01:29 PM


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$xjo price was just shy by 6 points of reaching the target for the swing, hate chasing it....we'll revisit it overnight most likely (ahlfway there from the top of the swing so far, intraday)

you were there the day commsec posted:We are seeing high volumes of trading today. Please be advised that our Contact Centres are busier than usual and you may experience longer than usual wait times.
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 10:23 AM


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$xjo
there's a measure at 6420 likely a small rotation when honkers opens
more amazing markets
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 12:22 AM


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A plan to use snow collected in Japan’s mountains to cool 2020 Olympics venues this summer is being stymied by snowfalls on track to be the lowest on record

https://reut.rs/2HZcOmH

https://twitter.com/i/status/1233034047451881475
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 04:53 PM


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good hunting, eb
honkers looks like sellers have left (the ones that wanted to sell are done)might not mean buyers are around but wouldnt take much to start a chase, looks right to me
a lot of folks who are panicking just cause it's popular to panic but at some point the pendulum does pendulummy things
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 03:19 PM


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late arvo waffled into the ether !!
think we're now due at least a countert-trend bounce, $spx has achieved enough to fulfill an orthodox level to rotate on
holding small longs for a few hours xjo/spx
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 02:11 PM


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$xjo, late arvo rally ?
where to ?
6725's ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 11:02 AM


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$hsi cfd trading suspended on ticker ....not something longs want to see
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 10:39 AM


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gold ($xauusd) nearterm still not finished it's probing lower
also keep in mind the AUD is at major low v USD (at/below 2008 low) so wouldnt bet on a continuation of that trend which impacts local stocks and likely to attenuate hedging
OBM showed that having a tight register is a killer when larger money wants to exit even tho it has shown decent enough results

https://www.macrotrends.net/2551/australian...istorical-chart
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 10:32 AM


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$xjo, clearly accumulation going on today
smells like teen bidding, it's at the value zone, vpoc 6680-6700
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 02:56 PM


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$xjo cash low at 3.20pm, mostly bids, do pros still buy the close ?

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 12:38 PM


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be slow to rush in, Mick
gold and silver shows some very strong trend signals since their recent highs, silver a non-confirmation to gold (usd's)
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 12:04 PM


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swamped buyers locally soon as honkers opened confirming sell there after yesterdays attempt to buy...very trendy
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 10:32 AM


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$xjo bouncing on oversold ?
awaiting $hsi
risk defined BTO

Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 01:30 PM


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$xjo
if the cash can close above 50% of todays high to low that'll go a long way to telling the dummy spit is over, any positive news is likely to feed into that move

in the overnights US $spx, the cfd printed a double bottom 3213's, value zone for bids
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 10:15 AM


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buying the round number
$xjo 6800 consistant bid, short covering, how far can this travel?
$xauusd goes offer
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 11:56 PM


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it had me scratching my head until it got to this :

" All these problems are potentially solvable, apart possibly from the materials one,
but these are very difficult engineering challenges. There are potentially other designs which are more promising for space flight. "

this is vastly different to landbased facility designed to provide cabled electricity to a neighbourhood

https://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/De...-Roadblock.aspx





  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 04:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

gold/xauusd has travelled back halfway (from the futures open to the high) and plained sideways, very good indication the bulls are holding for another push

xauusd 1643 (open) is the uncle point until a higher high prints

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

only confirmed if/with xauusd rolling back thru 1643's
Attached Image




  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

blow off ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 10:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

anti-science Trump says climate change is a hoax

The United States is blocking the G20 from mentioning climate change as a risk to economic growth in its draft communiqué, diplomats said

https://twitter.com/i/status/1231441050662658051
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 08:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

Safety assessment of molten salt reactors in comparison with light water reactors

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/artic...687850713000101

excerpt

2.1.1. Inherent safety features
It has always been the dream of reactor designers to produce plants with inherent safety—reactor assembly, fuel and power-generation components engineered in such a way that the reactor will, without human intervention, remain stable or shut itself down in response to any accident, electrical outage, abnormal change in load or other mishap. All reactors should have inherent safety, which is achieved by suppression of power change by designing the reactor with a negative power coefficient. Because the temperature coefficient of fuel salt is prompt negative and large, this condition is satisfied in MSR in addition to others inherent features:
-
Firstly negative temperature coefficient of reactivity. MSRs passively regulate their own temperature. If the reactor overheats, then reactivity in the core automatically slows down. That is, strong negative temperature coefficient of reactivity. The temperature dependence comes from 3 sources. The first is that thorium absorbs more neutrons if it overheats, the so-called Doppler effect (Mathieu et al., 2006). This leaves fewer neutrons to continue the chain reaction, reducing power. The second effect it has to do with thermal expansion of the fuel (Mathieu et al., 2006). If the fuel overheats, it expands considerably, which, due to the liquid nature of the fuel, will push fuel out of the active core region. In a small or well moderated core this reduces the reactivity. However in a large under-moderated core less fuel salt means better moderation and thus more reactivity (the size does not have a significant impact on the feedback coefficients because the neutron spectrum changes very little with the size. The slight evolution of the coefficient is due to the difference in neutron escapes, which are more likely in smaller reactors). This response permits the desirable property of load following—under conditions of changing electricity demand (load), the reactor requires no intervention to respond with automatic increases or decreases in power production. The third part is the graphite moderator, that usually causes a positive contribution to the temperature coefficient (Mathieu et al., 2006).

-
Secondly, MSRs operate at atmospheric pressure and use no water, thus eliminating the risk of a steam or hydrogen explosion. The MSRs design appears, in its present state of research and design, to possess an extremely high degree of inherent safety. The single most volatile aspect of current nuclear reactors is the pressurized water. In boiling light-water, pressurized light-water, and heavy water reactors (accounting for nearly all of the 441 reactors worldwide), water serves as the coolant and neutron moderator. The heat of fission causes water to boil, either directly in the core or in a steam generator, producing steam that drives a turbine. The water is maintained at high pressure to raise its boiling temperature. The explosive pressures involved are contained by a system of highly engineered, highly expensive piping and pressure vessels (called the “pressure boundary”), and the ultimate line of defense is the massive, expensive containment building surrounding the reactor, designed to withstand any explosive calamity and prevent the release of radioactive materials propelled by pressurized steam. A signature safety feature of the LFTR design is that the coolant—liquid fluoride salt—is not under pressure. The fluoride salt does not boil below 1400 °C. Neutral pressure reduces the cost and the scale of LFTR plant construction by reducing the scale of the containment requirements, because it obviates the need to contain a pressure explosion. Disruption in a transport line would result in a leak, not an explosion, which would be captured in a noncritical configuration in a catch basin, where it would passively cool and harden (Hargraves & Moir, 2010).

-
Also the fuel in an MSR is already in liquid form, it cannot melt down and in an emergency situation it can be quickly drained out of the reactor into a passively cooled dump tank. MSRs designs have a freeze plug at the bottom of the core—a plug of salt, cooled by a fan to keep it at a temperature below the freezing point of the salt. If temperature rises beyond a critical point, the plug melts, and the liquid fuel in the core is immediately evacuated, pouring into a sub-critical geometry in a catch basin. This formidable safety tactic is only possible if the fuel is a liquid.

One of the current requirements of the USA Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for certification of a new nuclear plant design is that in the event of a complete electricity outage, the reactor remains at least stable for several days if it is not automatically deactivated. As it happens, the freeze-plug safety feature is as old as Alvin Weinberg's 1965 Molten Salt Reactor Experiment design, yet it meets the NRC's requirement; at ORNL, the “old nukes” would routinely shut down the reactor by simply cutting the power to the freeze-plug cooling system. This setup is the ultimate in safe power outage response. Power isn't needed to shut down the reactor, for example by manipulating control elements. Instead power is needed to prevent the shutdown of the reactor (Hargraves & Moir, 2010).


So, from “inherently safe” point of view MSRs comes closer to this ideal case than does any water-cooled reactors. This is inherently much safer, eliminating almost all the (water-based) risks of current reactors.

2.1.2. Engineering safety features
Engineering safety features are based on the defense in depth (DID) philosophy. Which adapted to assure higher safety of the nuclear facility, taking in the following three different levels:
Level 1: Prevention of abnormal operation and failures: by provisions in design, manufacturing, construction, operating and maintenance.

Level 2: Control of abnormal operation and detection of failures by: abnormality detection in an early stage, plant Inherent features and the reactor shutdown system.

Level 3: Prevention of the large release of radioactive materials : by setting up containment and Emergency Core Cooling System ECCS. The multiple defense concept in the MSR should be the same as LWR but it must be obvious that defense in depth for a MSR must operate in a quite different way than for a LWR.


In LWR, the defense in depth approach to the safety design followed intuitively from the configuration of a LWR, which provides 3 important physical barriers to the release of the fission products to the environment viz, the clad on the fuel element, where the fission products are generated, the reactor vessel, which contains all the fuel elements forming a reactor core and the leak-tight containment, which is supposed to keep any fission products inside the containment from escaping to the environment. Assuring the integrity of each of these physical barriers in any accident scenario becomes the defense in depth approach against the release of radioactivity to the public environment (Sehgal, 2006).

In case of MSR many of the defense features of the LWR are not required. For example, the massive steel pressure vessel can be dispensed with since MSRs operate under atmospheric pressure. If the pressure vessel is removed from design in case of MSR, we loose one of the physical barriers present in the LWR defense in depth system. Also, LWRs coolant failure is a hazard because it leads to core meltdown. We have seen that much of the LWR's defense in depth system is devoted to prevention of core melt down, a molten core would represent a partial failure of the reactor defense system. Since the core of the MSR is already molten, from the viewpoint of the NRC the MSR violates profoundly important safety rules.

So, It must be obvious then that defense in depth for a MSR must operate in a quite different fashion than for a LWR. Reactor defenses are the most reliable if they depend on the automatic operation of laws of nature, rather than human intervention (Moir & Teller, 2008). Defense in depth in necessitated with undesirable events an unlikely but not impossible. Defense in depth thus is about defense against the unlikely. The purpose of defense in depth is to make the unlikely even more unlikely, if not impossible. More defense in depths are not needed if undesirable consequences cease to be matters of practical concern, or when they stop being theoretically impossible.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

i suspect i called that high too quickly, the COT report shows commercials want prices higher or at least chop around to give them enough new chasers for the "incontrovertible" uptrend

technically the chart called for a reversal and i suspect monday (tomorrow) will clearly show if the commercials can remain dominant, based on thin trade it's likely they do, the only question now is has there been a
significant enough sentiment swing in retail and managers to warrant a larger swing to test lower value zones

upto 8 weeks ago retail cfd were very keen to be short averaging 75-80% sell to open versus the last 3 weeks averaging 50-55% buy to open



timingcharts.com COT report
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 05:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

ask Bill Gates, his new reactors far surpass the French implacements

not only are they 99% safe ...the fuel is 100% reusable

TerraPower, an energy company cofounded by Bill Gates, builds advanced nuclear reactors. The company is developing a new reactor that uses molten chloride instead of water as a coolant. TerraPower believes the design will be safer and more efficient than today's reactors.Nov 27, 2018

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/bill-gat...0?r=US&IR=T

there's good insight in the netflix doco dedicated to him
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 04:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

have sold to open at 2750 front month contract (cfd)......looks like a blow off, requiring confirmation
considering the long positions by commercials we'll at least get a retest of todays high

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 18 2020, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

not so sure about the US/Aus indexes, theyre still pretty bully, only overnight sells to test weak stop levels
honkers looks good for more downside next few days
negative trends attract negative news
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

Earth just had its hottest January on record
Weather Last night
"According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the planet experienced the hottest January in recorded history last month. Four of the planet's hottest Januaries have all occurred since 2016."

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment...sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
Feb. 14, 2020, 3:31 AM AEDT
By Denise Chow

The planet experienced its hottest January in recorded history last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

It was the 44th consecutive January, and the 421st consecutive month, with temperatures above the 20th century average, according to NOAA. The milestone is just the latest in a string of climate records set in recent years.

The average temperature across land and ocean surfaces in January was the highest in NOAA’s 141 years of climate records, surpassing the 20th-century average of 53.6 degrees Fahrenheit (12 degrees Celsius) by 2.05 degrees F (1.14 degrees C).

The new milestone highlights a worrisome trend as the planet continues to warm at an accelerated pace. The four warmest Januaries on record have all occurred since 2016, and the 10 warmest Januaries have occurred since 2002, according to NOAA.

Last month bested January 2016, which previously held the record for warmest January, by only 0.04 degrees F (0.02 degrees C).

Russia, Scandinavia and eastern Canada experienced the most dramatic warmer-than-usual conditions last month, with some of these regions seeing temperatures at least 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) above average. Conversely, most of Alaska and part of western Canada experienced cooler-than-usual temperatures in January.
Attached Image


https://twitter.com/i/moments/1228001725770092544
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

and the hits just keep coming:
The Antarctic has registered a temperature of more than 20C (68F) for the first time on record, prompting fears of climate instability in the world’s greatest repository of ice.

The 20.75C logged by Brazilian scientists at Seymour Island on 9 February was almost a full degree higher than the previous record of 19.8C, taken on Signy Island in January 1982.

It follows another recent temperature record: on 6 February an Argentinian research station at Esperanza measured 18.3C, which was the highest reading on the continental Antarctic peninsula.

These records will need to be confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization, but they are consistent with a broader trend on the peninsula and nearby islands, which have warmed by almost 3C since the pre-industrial era �" one of the fastest rates on the planet.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/...rst-time-record

Scientists, who collect the data from remote monitoring stations every three days, described the new record as “incredible and abnormal”.

“We are seeing the warming trend in many of the sites we are monitoring, but we have never seen anything like this,” said Carlos Schaefer, who works on Terrantar, a Brazilian government project that monitors the impact of climate change on permafrost and biology at 23 sites in the Antarctic.

Schaefer said the temperature of the peninsula, the South Shetland Islands and the James Ross archipelago, which Seymour is part of, has been erratic over the past 20 years. After cooling in the first decade of this century, it has warmed rapidly.

Attached Image




Scientists on the Brazilian antarctic programme say this appears to be influenced by shifts in ocean currents and El Niño events: “We have climatic changes in the atmosphere, which is closely related to changes in permafrost and the ocean. The whole thing is very interrelated.”

The impacts vary across Antarctica, which encompasses the land, islands and ocean south of 60 degrees latitude. This region stores about 70% of the world’s fresh water in the form of snow and ice. If it were all to melt, sea levels would rise by 50 to 60 metres, but that will take many generations. UN scientists predict oceans will be between 30cm and 110cm higher by the end of this century, depending on human efforts to reduce emissions and the sensitivity of ice sheets.

While temperatures in eastern and central Antarctica are relatively stable, there are growing concerns about west Antarctica, where warming oceans are undermining the huge Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. Until now, this has led to a relatively low amount of sea-level rise, but this could change rapidly if there is a sustained jump in temperature.

The Antarctic peninsula �" the long finger of land that stretches towards Argentina �" is most dramatically affected. On a recent trip with Greenpeace, the Guardian saw glaciers that have retreated by more than 100 metres in Discovery Bay and large swathes of land on King George Island where the snow melted in little more than a week, leaving dark exposed rock. While some degree of melt occurs every summer, scientists said it had been more evident in recent years, with temperatures rising more quickly in winter. This is believed to be behind an alarming decline of more than 50% in chinstrap penguin colonies, which are dependent on sea ice.


Schaefer said monitoring data from these areas could indicate what is in store for other parts of the region. “It is important to have sentinel areas like the South Shetlands and the Antarctic peninsula because they can anticipate the developments that will happen in the future, the near future,” he said.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

pingpong day $xjo !
no real sign anyone wants to sell except the futures kiddies are busy trying to rip the thin trade
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 01:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

small double top with a long-tail daily down bar

$xjo
7048 nearest target likely down to 6962 over a few sessions
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 01:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

the xjo idea got spat out pretty quickly, long is the trope, very bully trend
follow the money


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 02:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

technicals on below post

the risk is 7070$xjo
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 02:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

xjo had a nice upswing today but kinda ran out of fuel and stopped on a techncial ratio, calling for an STO
marked up not bought up ?

tomorrow will give a clear insight if i am wrong,

$HSI bouncing but it looks against the larger downtrend en mode which probably has some neg news coming to go with the pricing
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

higher hihgs $xjo
am long palladium looking for a new high but likely not a big new high and so far signals are right for a struggling top formation even thoCOT report shows commercials are in buy mode, the thin trade can be elusive
looking for gold to achieve 1548-1552 zone before new leg up to take out 1611's in the front month cfd ....retail coughs it up in the sentiment very quickly but the major sentiment is still in the extreme sell to open by commercials
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 10 2020, 08:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

https://www.asx.com.au/education/sharemarket-game.htm

Game play is from 5 March - 17 June
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 9 2020, 05:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

" I can show one showing a different trend "

finally, thankyou

a put-up-or-shut-up post from you

do that, do what you say you can do

do that and we'll have a decent debate

a debate that opens the can of worms that is the "no such thing as climate change"

i started this thread with a clear intention of posting data and insights that are verifiable

sure some of the posts are anecdotal one-off editorials

there are plenty of data driven posts here, if you were starting from scratch and did not have a preconceived bent of "but the climate always changes"
then you'd find plenty of data to say hang on a second this needs to be tested

the vast difference between doing just enough to say gotchya with a cherry picked data set versus a series of data that outlines a trend from several sources who specialise
in the math, physics and it is their vocation to study, have the larger resources plus work that is peer reviewed

let's be honest, youre not a scientist
i am not a scientist

we know CO2 is the culprit, we know its industrial man-induced, we know because isotopes

the defintive proofs are in the data sets

you have not read the data sets in this thread

your response is about you, not the data






  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 9 2020, 09:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

thanks, surandy
missed this" Protean Energy Ltd. will receive an aggregate 20,000,000 post-consolidation shares of Margaret Lake in consideration for the exclusive technology license and technical assistance in design "
raises the question how come no annoc from protean, not an ongoing royalty
at .004 what is the likelyhood a boutique fund manager is going to be interested in a shell that's barely solvent and clearly non-communicative to its holders
a consolidation is more likely, the value of the vanadium inground has not proven to be more than average grades in a heavily falling market and despite how good the batteries (i'm an ardent fan of the science) protean have not shown any feet on the ground in pushing the tech other than an instal
the price reflects the sentiment of the market based on the performance of the company not the product, same with BRN same with TTT, all proven science of some extent .......the market determins likely future income, the market drivers are the fund managers in this instance, there are plenty of far-sighted boutique fund managers around

.....and the price is .004


  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 8 2020, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

not likely to make any signif diff to Protean

the pdf is a rehash, the bulk of the pdf is a cut n paste of previous release that included POW, this time around it doesnt include POW

thru the various guises the company has gone thru and it's tendency to be shtoom with invsetors the company is just as likely to morf into a new form again
...the last one was a promising wave energy gizmo that fell to bits

regurgitating shell .......if gold price gets high enough in price they'll probably go into mining
  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 8 2020, 08:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

because

https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...mp;#entry903304

https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...mp;#entry903141

https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...mp;#entry904317

https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...mp;#entry903770


the trend is your friend if we let it be that
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 8 2020, 03:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

it's a bit like trading, a one 100 point down day in an upward sloping trend maybe significant to a daytrader but not to a longerterm investor

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 8 2020, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353



GENEVA/BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - A research base in the Antarctic has recorded the hottest temperature


ever for the continent amid rising concern about global warming that has caused an increase in the melting of ice sheets around the south pole.

The Esperanza base on the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula recorded a


temperature of 18.3 degrees Celsius (64.94 degrees Fahrenheit), the highest on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday.

“(This) is not a figure you would normally associate with Antarctica even in the summertime.


This beat the former record of 17.5 degrees C, which was set back in 2015,” WMO spokeswoman Clare Nullis told reporters in Geneva.


“The Antarctic peninsula ... is among the fastest warming regions of the planet. We hear a lot about the Arctic, but this particular part of the Antarctic peninsula is warming very quickly.”

The temperature was recorded at the Argentine base on Thursday.

Scientists believe global warming has caused so much melting at the south pole that the giant ice sheet is now on course to disintegrate. This would see an eventual global sea level rise of at least three meters (10 feet) over centuries.





A WMO committee will verify whether the temperature logged by Argentina’s national meteorological service is a new record for the Antarctic continent. The record in the wider Antarctic region is 19.8 degrees C in January 1982.

“The amount of ice lost annually from the Antarctic ice sheet increased at least six-fold between 1979 and 2017,” Nullis added, citing images showing cracks in glaciers in Antarctica.

“The melting from these glaciers, you know, means we are in big trouble when it comes to sea level rise.”


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-climate-...a-idUKKBN2011ZR


February 8, 2020 / 2:38 AM / Updated 8 hours ago
Antarctic base records hottest temperature ever







  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 12:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

unlikely as it may seem now, probably, we'll see a lot more of these being inplace
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi...m_medium=Social
excerpts

"It’s the reason they installed two concrete...."
"Farmer Jeff McCole described the fires as “unfightable”, and said that all he and other “dumbfounded” residents could do was “just stand there and watch.”"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

these two videos go well together
i prefer what 4 fire chiefs have to say versus what 4 of Australia's biggest tv talking heads have to say

Bushfires and Murdoch misinformation | Media Watch
https://youtu.be/s23q9DkCaVY

The cause of Australia’s bushfires what the SCIENCE says
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0x46-enxsA...eature=youtu.be
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 5 2020, 02:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

Walter Murphy‏ @waltergmurphy 4h4 hours ago Short term wave counts on several indexes suggest that the market is at risk of a downside acceleration.

Walter Murphy has 4 decades in

--------------

after the State of the Union the speaker of the house tore up the presidents speech in front of the congress

so ...fun times ahead


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 5 2020, 11:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

mate, beware the trapping game, the whole wide swings are not complete for mine
keep in mind the relative size swings rather than absolute trend moves
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 4 2020, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

youre getting deep into the bid zone but i wouldnt second guess to the upside yet until we see the bid get chased into a series of higher highs
am more inclined to play uber small with smaller banks but work on a framework of a zone rather than absolute trend until we get a weekly breakout
$hsi
$xjo looks like it'll test lower too but not in a a reversal of weekly trend

i think most people miss that indexes were already in rotation when the (fill in the blank) excuse for a decline hitso now we have a lot of players watching each other for commitment and err on the sell side but clearly itchy to chase the bid and get trapped
wide stops are just as likely to get you trapped, conversely waiting for an extreme in a swing (relative size) lowers your risk

and when the auctions slow down dont force a trade
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 3 2020, 04:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

$hsi
youre in the bid zone hence the smash up today so if youre keen on sell side keep it uber small (imho)
i prefer long bias with small sto's
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 3 2020, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

Reuters‏Verified account @Reuters 1m1 minute ago Financial market website Zero Hedge knocked off Twitter over coronavirus story https://reut.rs/2GOwCZC

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 2 2020, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

$hsi is clearly at the vpoc zone but at the top end so we may get some sloshy stuff and the upswing may take some back n forth before the bull can restartno reason to think there is a bear trend ......
the government is both lender and borrower of last resort ...enough said

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Feb 2 2020, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

from the did you know file .....&c

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1223621086635491329
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

State of emergency declared ACT
https://youtu.be/zOVA_COMbzo
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 25 2020, 08:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

How Thawing Permafrost Is Beginning to Transform the Arctic

BY ED STRUZIK • JANUARY 21, 2020

"The frozen layer of soil that has underlain the Arctic tundra for millennia is now starting to thaw.
This thawing, which could release vast amounts of greenhouse gases, is already changing the
Arctic landscape by causing landslides, draining lakes, and altering vegetation."

thought for the day:
if a member of your family decided to spend 4-6 years to get their masters or a Phd in one of the earth sciences
would your default position be that that member of your family is a criminal with criminal intent?
cynicism is not intelligence
cynicism borne out of ignorance is naivety at best and intentional stupidity at worse...just another disguise of fear

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-melting-...form-the-arctic


Attached Image


https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/files/2020/01/A...100subplots.png

"1950-1980 baseline?"
"Yes - it is labeled on the bottom right. You can compare additional baselines here:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archi...an-temperature/
To express climate variables, scientists often refer to "anomalies" or a departure from average (baseline). These baselines differ per data set (research center). Here is an example of using different baselines on #Arctic air temperatures.
Attached Image

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 23 2020, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

..there i go

did you watch the video ?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 23 2020, 04:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353


this entry refers directly to Australia

very useful, instructional, educational, give yourself a clue kinda video
it's a straightforward video, easy to digest

you should watch it to see it you can pull it apart with common sense
of course, common sense is the very thing that causes the challenges we have, common sense was once referred-to as "lazy thinking"which is nowadays confused with normal thinking

https://youtu.be/t0x46-enxsA
Attached Image


Attached Image






  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 22 2020, 10:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

almost ground me out my short, stop 2301 level as it's really the final level above which it's obvious the trend remains fully intact

meanwhile i stumbled across interesting read

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-magic-...et-in-2020.html

excerpt:

"Why post all those links? Just to demonstrate that I know a little bit about this stuff. As opposed to the army of "analysts" on Twitter,
I didn't just stumble onto the monthly chart last week and now feel compelled to author an opinion.
Additionally, most of this new analysis and opinion misses the most important point:
The situation in palladium is unique, and it holds the possibility of exposing...and even threatening...the entire LBMA/COMEX fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme.
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 22 2020, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ene...60b1_story.html

#trade persepctive, odds are balanced for a larger rotation in palladiumonline chatter and hype surrounding the demand for palladium is fairly easy to find compared to several weeks and months ago
typically at a major swing high metals attract the most attention as "investors" decide to finally give in an join the ride
#repeatable

#patterns
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 19 2020, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

hat tip Kid Hustler for the find

https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

Stocks vs. Gold and Silver
1896 > 2020
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

observation, eb: something diff, $BTC looks like it's on a break out move

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

thanks for the prompt, alonso smile.gif
2019 capped world’s hottest decade in recorded history
It also marked the second-warmest year ever. “What happens in the future is really up to us," one scientist said.

By Brady Dennis ,
Andrew Freedman and
John Muyskens
January 15
Attached Image

Source: NASA’s Goddard's Global Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...ld/?arc404=true


========================
<li class="css-i49r68">here's one from Feb. 26, 2019<li class="css-60hakz">
LONDON — Two days of unseasonable sunshine in Britain this week have resulted in more than the shedding of hats, scarves and winter coats: They have also brought the highest temperatures ever recorded in the country in winter.

Temperatures peaked on Tuesday at 21.2 degrees Celsius (70.16 Fahrenheit) in Kew Gardens, London, the hottest February day in Britain since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office, the national meteorological service.

Warmer than an average summer day in Britain, the record set on Tuesday ended a short-lived run for Porthmadog, Wales, which had laid claim earlier in the day with a high of 20.8 degrees Celsius (69.44 Fahrenheit).

February’s new maximum temperature record was also snatched from the rural community of Trawsgoed, Wales, which had set a record on Monday with a high of 20.6 degrees Celsius (69.08 Fahrenheit).

The run of unusually hot days smashed the previous record of 19.7 degrees Celsius (67.46 Fahrenheit), set in the Greenwich area of London in February 1998.

“To get more than 20 degrees Celsius in May would be a very pleasant day. So to get that in February is obviously very significant,” said Grahame Madge, a spokesman for the Met Office. “Whether we will see that again next winter remains to be seen.”

The weather could not have been more different from a year ago, when Britons found themselves up against a polar vortex nicknamed the “Beast From the East.” On one of the coldest days in the U.K. for three decades, snow and high winds closed schools, stranded drivers and disrupted flights and trains.

The subzero temperatures extended far beyond Britain last winter. Norway recorded temperatures of minus 43 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 42 Celsius) at the start of March, and snow fell in Rome for the first time in six years.

The unseasonably balmy temperatures that sent Britons scrambling for sunglasses and T-shirts this week also broke records in Ireland, where the national meteorological service declared the February temperatures to be the hottest since 1960.

On the Continent, the Netherlands beat its oldest record for the warmest February day with a temperature of 17.8 degrees Celsius (64.04 Fahrenheit).

In France, temperatures were as high as 22 degrees Celsius (71 Fahrenheit), far above the average temperature for the time of year, and a number of towns in Sweden also experienced their hottest ever February days.

But as moods lifted with the unexpected taste of summer, some voiced a creeping sense of concern at such a dramatic shift from the norm.

The record temperature in Britain is “concerning, given what we known about climate science,” Leo Hickman, the director of a energy and climate fact-checking website, wrote on Twitter.

“This unseasonably warm weather is part of a global trend of record temperatures and unprecedented extremes,” Caroline Lucas, the former leader of Britain’s Green Party, wrote on Twitter. “This is what climate breakdown looks like.”

The Met Office tied the warm conditions to a vast high-pressure area centered over Germany. Warm air is being drawn up to Britain, prompting the record-breaking heat. Mr. Madge, the Met Office spokesman, said the same weather system was also the cause of last year’s freezing temperatures — but because that high-pressure area was centered over Scandinavia, cold air was drawn from the Arctic.

The meteorologists said they could not definitively link the extreme heat to climate change until a full study had been carried out, but Mr. Madge said: “We would expect temperatures in winter to be influenced by global warming and for temperatures to be warmer on average.”

“Simplistically, it does fit the pattern,” he added.

(no links were provided in the article to check the data)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/world/eu...est-day-uk.html

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

some kahuna testing against the wind there, eb ?
uber bully indexes at the mo
China news due at 1pm today AEST
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

holding at resistance overnight aussie time, looks like price may still need to go back down to get enough bids to break thru
not enough impulsive kick
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 01:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

have closed this STO

the bid has held up against resistance

silver is also looking resilient

following the money, above 1558 in the front month contract it's a signal the bulls want to go for a run

there's no right or wrong just bids n offers
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 16 2020, 03:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

$xauusd on its way to completing a pullback, before another strong upleg, most likely the zone 1520-1504

falling below 1470 in the front month contract would be a trend signal that the upside is completed already
the back ground is uber optimism from retail bulls but commercials are extreme opposite postion....again, buyer beware
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 16 2020, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

" How they arrived at these estimates, we have no idea."
nail on the head
any blog, vlog, post, editorial or chat sheet that offers data is all-but worthless unless it supplies a link-to or assigned-to where the data and/or the originating author(s) work can be verified
numbers, stats and approximations are worthless without the ability to verify wholly because the editorial cannot have the context of the work checked and the context needs to be checked because the editor(ial) does not specialise in the science they are quoting, or offering as evidence, for their own opinion

there are a lot of theists around: pro climate change theists and anti climate change theists ...and we have enough religions !
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 09:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

Pendragon, the part in bold may be of interest

" Now, with the country experiencing one of its worst ever bushfire seasons and facing criticism for his pro-coal policies, Morrison is acknowledging climate change is real. He is also talking about “adaptation” and “resilience”.

“I think we want to have a high level of confidence that as a nation we are improving our resilience and our adaptation to respond

to the reality of the environment in which we live,” Morrison told reporters in Canberra on Wednesday.

Australia’s Science Minister Karen Andrews told the Sydney Morning Herald in an interview that climate denial was a waste of time, as she echoed Morrison’s “adaptation” mantra.

As bushfires tore through New South Wales state in December, Morrison avoided drawing a link between the unusually

early and ferocious fire season and climate change, saying the time was not right for such discussions. Just last week he said Sydney

radio 2GB it was disappointing that people were conflating the bushfire crisis with Australia’s emission reduction targets.

While the softening of his stance is significant, scepticism remains over whether it will translate to a stronger climate policy as large swathes of the country continue to burn.

“It’s much overdue for the government to seriously engage on climate change adaptation,” said Frank Jotzo, a professor at the Australian National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy.

“But what also needs to happen is for the Australian government to take a proactive stance on climate mitigation, that is, to reduce green house emissions. And there is still no clear signs that’s about to happen.”

Blazes burning since September have claimed the lives of 28 people, killed more than a billion animals and ripped through forests and farmland the size of Bulgaria.

The hazy skies in Australia’s major cities have become a common occurrence, denting the country’s clean and green image, hurting tourism and consumer sentiment.

KING COAL
The mood in the country is also changing.

A poll from the Australia Institute on Wednesday showed the country’s bushfire crisis has intensified concerns about climate change with almost seven in 10 Australians wanting the government to lead on climate action.

Morrison, whose popularity has sunk to its lowest levels since he took over leadership in 2018 over the government’s bushfire response, continues to espouse the merits of coal.

“Our resources industry is incredibly important to Australia,” he reiterated on Wednesday, adding coal “is worth A$70 billion ($48.3 billion) to Australia and it is important to communities across the country.”

Mining jobs account for just under 2% of all employment in the country, miniscule in comparison with construction, retail, healthcare and tourism-related sectors.

Morrison repeated his government will “meet and beat” a 26% global emissions reduction target agreed in Paris, “without putting taxes on people, putting up electricity prices and pulling out the rugs from regional communities who depend on the sector for their livelihoods.”

Academics and climate scientists say 26% is a lowball reductions target especially if as planned Australia uses its old carbon credits from the 1992 Kyoto Protocol - another sore point for activists.

Australia’s reliance on coal-fired power makes it one of the world’s largest carbon emitters per capita and last year it approved a huge new coal mine by India’s Adani Enterprises.

U.S. climatologist and geophysicist Michael Mann told Reuters that Morrison’s position was “ridiculous”.

“If we continue to warm the planet, then we will in all likelihood exceed our adaptive capacity,” he said in an email.

“In other words, there is no amount of adaptation that will allow Australians to contend with the impacts of climate change if we allow for a further escalation of the problem.”

In fact, Mann said, Australia could become so hot and dry that its residents could join the ranks of the world’s “climate refugees.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi..._source=twitter
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

this is not climate, but, if the link between them is ever made this graphic (see link) will be high in the department of "something needs to be done"
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1217296456819736576
The smoke from Australia's bushfires has circumnavigated the globe
Australian news 52 minutes ago
Smoke from bushfires burning across southeastern Australia has travelled around the earth and back to Australian skies, NASA said on Wednesday (AEDT). Scientists using data from the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite traced the movement of the smoke, which has also triggered an unusually large number of fire-induced thunderstorms.


excerpt from graphic
you can see smoke above New Zealand as it journey's full circle to Australia
Attached Image

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

am currently long the $xjo

the RSI is useful when applied in two different ways
preamble is; the 14day setting is of itself arbitrary, so you need to observe what works best depending on the time frame you are trading
so that leads to specific context, that is, the setting you use versus the time frame youre in versus the phase of the trend/congestion zone
there is a lot to go thru, so this is a brief looking into my thoughts, it's diff for each player
keep in mind RSI does not inform you of the health of a trend it can only give you a frame work of conception in advance but you need to do two things
in my humble opinion: know the context and the relative size at playthis also requires some experience or at least some time in observation of the "personality" or "propensity" of the action of the RSI relative to the phase youre trading .....keeping in mind youre trading the right hand side of the screen, the weight of your observation is going to effect your risk decision
but not necessarily your ideas of the trend or the larger phase youre in, it is somewhat lateral and cannot be applied as a linear approachkeep in mind the ideas applied TO the RSI are different to the ideas applied FROM the RSI ....this is a trap many fall into as they apply risk on a linear approach to (any) this indicia
also keep in mind that the RSI is "boxed" so it cannot be default give insight into trend
thus, I say, it is like russian dolls in effect in some time frames, keep in mind that these are time-frames within a phase of tradeso, the price precedes and drags alone the RSI, i use 9day setting, too close too many whips, it is far too easy to misinterpret the RSI setting with the context of price (price has it's own context and it is distorted within the RSI) so in this instance price + RSI is its own context but does not relate to the phase directly so
it is easy to see a divergence and incorrectly apply that divergence when the context of price action is not itself correctly understood by the trader

this last sentence is most critical to understand, so, reread it......
maybe a doodle thread is in need here, Mick .....am happy to contribute so long it's not energy into dead air .....maybe we could call it the non-CUV technical doodle thread !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,353

$xjo making new altime highs
cfd retail is 92% short today
that, is very bullish
  Forum: Macro Factors

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