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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Today, 09:01 AM
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In the S&P500, the decline from the September 4549.50 high is viewed as a corrective pullback. Last Thursday's close above the breakdown level (4425/35) was an initial indication that the correction is complete at the 4293.75 low. However, a close back within the uptrend at 4480/85ish is needed to confirm a return to trend. Until then, a retest and break of the 4293.75 low cannot be ruled out as the third leg of a three-wave correction




The ASX200 closed 30 points lower on Friday at 7339. The real estate sector was the big loser as the IMF called for Australian regulators to cool booming Sydney and Melbourne housing prices. The ASX200’s 6% decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a corrective pullback, not a trend change. Last Thursday's daily close back within the uptrend at 7340ish is an indication the correction is complete. A daily close above 7400 would be further confirmation that the correction is complete and that the ASX200 has the potential to rally towards 7800 into year-end. The ASX200 is expected to open 16 points lower this morning at 7323. Resistance on the day is expected at 7380, and support viewed at 7320.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 24 2021, 09:36 AM
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U.S stocks closed higher for a second day as investors embraced the latest FOMC meeting despite its hawkish overtones and as concerns over Chinese property developer Evergrande continued to ease. The S&P500 closed at 4449 (1.21%), the Nasdaq closed at 15317 (+0.92%), while the Dow Jones outperformed to close 507 points higher at 34765 (1.48%). The decline from the September 4549.50 high in the S&P500 is viewed as a corrective pullback. The overnight close above the breakdown level (4425/35), is a good indication the correction is complete at this week’s 4293.75 low. However, a close back above the uptrend at 4480/85ish is the final confirmation needed to confirm a return to trend. Until then, a retest of the 4293.75 low cannot be ruled out


The ASX200 closed 73 points higher yesterday at 7370, driven by gains in the IT, as Afterpay (APT) stormed 4% higher and the health sector. Former index heavyweight News Corp also in the news as it closed over 8% higher after shareholders voted to double the size of the share buyback. The ASX200’s 6% decline from the August 7632.8 high has been viewed as a corrective pullback, not a trend change. Yesterday’s daily close above the broken uptrend at 7350ish is a firm indication the correction is complete. A second consecutive daily close above 7350 would result in a positive bias, looking for a push towards 7800 into year-end. The ASX200 is expected to open 12 points higher this morning at 7382. Resistance on the day is expected at 7418, and support viewed at 7350.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 23 2021, 09:13 AM
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U.S stocks closed sharply higher after the Fed confirmed that tapering would begin soon (November), and it would end around mid-2022 as expected. Building on the recovery that started in the Asian time zone yesterday after a significant liquidity injection from the Peoples Bank of China eased fears over Chinese property developer Evergrande. The decline from the early September 4549.50 high is viewed as a corrective pullback. While the overnight rally goes some way to suggest the correction is complete at this week’s 4293.75 low, further evidence is required. Firstly in the shape of a move back above the breakdown level at 4425/35, followed by a close back within the trend channel 4465/85ish. Until then, a retest of the 4293.75 low cannot be ruled out


The ASX200 closed 23 points higher yesterday at 7296, as fears continued to ease over Chinese property developer Evergrande, allowing a bounce in the energy and materials sector. The decline from the mid-August 7632.8 high is viewed as a corrective pullback. While the rally over the past 48 hours goes some way to suggest the correction is complete at the 7191 low, further evidence is required. Specifically a daily close back within the broken uptrend at 7350ish. Until then a retest of the 7191 low cannot be ruled out. The ASX200 is expected to open 17 points higher this morning at 7313. Resistance on the day is expected at 7355, and support viewed at 7285

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 22 2021, 09:32 AM
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After a volatile session, the S&P500 and the Dow Jones closed lower as investors wait to see how the Chinese government will respond to the Evergrande fiasco and ahead of tomorrow morning's FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to provide advanced notice that tapering is coming, paving the way to announce the start of tapering at its November meeting. At the start of September, our base case for the S&P500 was for a correction towards trend channel support 4435/25, which worked out well. The break below the trend channel support at 44235/35 is viewed as part of a deeper correction, and despite the lure of a 5% pullback, there is no firm evidence the pullback is complete. As such, the preference is to wait for signs of basing to emerge to indicate a low is in place and a recovery is underway. Alternatively wait for the S&P500 to reclaim resistance at 4435 and then 4460/90 to indicate the uptrend has resumed


The ASX200 closed 25 points higher yesterday at 7273, encouraged by the absence of sellers willing to panic/chase the market below horizontal support at 7200. Our base case for the ASX200 has been for a correction towards trend channel support at 7300, which worked out well. The break below 7300 is viewed as part of a deeper correction and the bullish reversal candle that formed yesterday indicates buyers stepped up to take advantage of lower prices. However, to confirm the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed, the ASX200 needs to reclaim the broken uptrend currently at 7340 The ASX200 is expected to open 27 points lower this morning at 7246. Resistance on the day is expected at 7290, and support viewed at 7220.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 21 2021, 09:27 AM
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U.S. stock indices closed sharply lower overnight on concerns over a potential default from Chinese property developer Evergrande on its $US300B pile of debt and nerves ahead of upcoming event risk.. The S&P500 closed at 4358 (-1.70%), the Dow Jones closed 614 points lower at 33970, and the Nasdaq closed at 15012 (-2.10%). At the start of September, our base case for the S&P500 was for a pullback towards trend channel support 4435/25, which worked out well. However, the break and acceleration below trend channel support add a new layer of complexity and volatility. Despite the lure of a 5% pullback, there are no firm signs the pullback is complete. As such the preference is to wait for signs of basing to emerge to indicate a low is in place and a recovery is underway. Or alternatively wait for the S&P500 to reclaim resistance at 4460/90.



The ASX200 closed 155 points lower yesterday at 7248 on broad-based weakness. Aside from the big iron ore miners, the most notable falls were in the Uranium and Lithium names that have attracted a lot of speculative flows in recent sessions, including Paladin (PDN) -16.5%, Pilbara (PLS), -9.61%, and Orocobre (ORE) -8.60%. Our base case for the ASX200 for the past four or so weeks has been for a pullback towards trend channel support at 7300, which worked out well. However, the acceleration below 7300 yesterday indicates a new layer of complexity and volatility. I prefer to wait for signs of basing to emerge to indicate a low is in place and a recovery is underway. Alternatively wait for the ASX200 to reclaim the uptrend at 7300. The ASX200 is expected to open 109 points lower this morning at 7137. Resistance on the day is expected at 7175, and support viewed at 7100.

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try 7100ish support for asx200, if market just have a pull back, 7100 should be hold !! imho though!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 20 2021, 10:27 AM
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The S&P500 closed below trend channel support at 4435/25 and if the break is confirmed tonight on a closing basis, it indicates a deeper corrective pullback into the 4300/4250 support area is underway. Aware that a break and daily close back above last week’s high at 4486 is needed to negate the deteriorating technical backdrop.


The ASX200 closed 56 points lower on Friday at 7403, with 35 of those points coming from BHP, RIO, and Fortescue, following another sharp fall in the iron ore price. The ASX200 is expected to open 89 points lower this morning at 7312. Resistance on the day is expected at 7370, and support viewed at 7300. Should signs of basing emerge near 7300, it would be an initial sign the correction from the 7632.8 high is maturing, although a break and daily close above 7470 is needed to confirm the basing and the uptrend has resumed. Aware that should the 7300 support zone give way, the next level of support is not until 7200.

 


early birds
post Posted: Sep 18 2021, 05:49 AM
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Instinet's US trading algorithms have been updated to account for multiple index rebalances including S&P, NASDAQ and Russell. Historically on such days we see higher than average volume proportions in the opening and closing auctions, and continuous market volume tilted more toward the close.
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witching day!! ohmy.gif unsure.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 17 2021, 09:17 AM
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U.S. stock indices closed mostly lower ahead of tonight’s quadruple witching, despite U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rising in August. The S&P500 closed at 4474 (-0.16%), the Dow Jones closed 63 points lower at 34751, and the Nasdaq closed at 15516 (+0.08%). There remain several key event risks left in September, including tonight’s quadruple witching for U.S. options and futures, the FOMC meeting (September 22nd), the infrastructure deadline (September 27th) as well as the debt ceiling expiration (September 30th). Providing the S&P500 remains above trend channel support at 4435/25 (closing basis) allow for a rally towards 4600. Keeping in mind, a sustained break and close much below 4435/25 would warn that a deeper decline into the 4300/4250 support area is underway.


The ASX200 closed 43 points higher yesterday at 7460, led by the energy sector following strong gains in the price of crude oil. The ASX200’s close at 7460 is right in the middle of the 7450/70 resistance zone highlighted. A daily close above this resistance zone is needed to indicate the correction from the 7632 high is complete, and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, allow for a retest of support at 7320/00. The ASX200 is expected to open 15 points lower this morning at 7445. Resistance on the day is expected at 7470, and support viewed at 7410.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 17 2021, 12:33 AM
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we discussed four criteria that would create a better set up:


“The SPX’s strongest rallies in 2021 have come from dips within the uptrend, not on breakouts. Thus, the best risk/reward set up would be seeing the SPX:



1. Drop to the bottom of the 2021 trading channel and hold – Good start

2. Seeing a bearish pattern form, FAIL and create a bear trap – Close

3. Visit and hold above the 50-Day MA – Good start

4. Drop from the Upper Bollinger Band to the Lower Bollinger Band, hold and reverse.” – Has not happened yet

======================

1. Drop to the bottom of the 2021 trading channel and hold.

The SPX continued lower from last week through this Tuesday, of course, and while the financial world was waiting for the that inevitable test of the 50-Day MA, the index FIRST came in contact with the upward trading channel. This has been as good – or perhaps even better than - the 50-Day in timing the market’s turns, especially since May.



Again, while not everyone sees this channel, the pattern adequately has captured the advance’s pace. And, thus far, said pace has remained constant. A change of character, i. e., a material slow down, would prompt a downside break.

2. Seeing a bearish pattern form, FAIL and create a bear trap.



As the decline extended through Tuesday, the 4,410-target looked like a real potential. Indeed, the downside objective remains alive for now, but the pattern has very little wiggle room to work with as of last night’s close. Immediate upside follow-through would void the bearish setup, a scenario we’ve grown quite accustomed to seeing in 2021.

3. Visit and hold above the 50-Day MA.



The 50-Day MA discussion has been pounded into our heads with every drawdown. And while we may be sick of hearing about it, the dip buying around the line has been a real phenomenon.



That being said, we need to realize that it's not always a quick one-day visit back to (or near) the line, even though that's been the case since June.



Last September and October saw strong breaks (red), which proved to be temporary, but buying as the line was FIRST hit didn’t help.



In February, March and May of this year, the SPX's first bounce from the line failed (yellow). Those instances provided a few scares before the real turn higher emerged.

4. Drop from the Upper Bollinger Band to the Lower Bollinger Band, hold and reverse.



This has NOT happened yet.



One reason is that as Volatility has increased from August’s exceedingly low levels, the lines (bands) have widened,. Does this mean we’re due for another - and bigger – drop before a real bid emerges

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seems the study lean towards " buy the dip" strategy . unsure.gif imho ----if one wants to do it , used stoploss , that way you can catch the good entry with the manageable risk!! smile.gif




 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 16 2021, 09:45 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 16 2021, 09:25 AM

The ASX is looking for 32 pts higher.

  • AUD +0.2% to 73.33 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net +3.6% to $US48,075
  • On Wall St: Dow 0.7% ; S&P 500 0.9% ; Nasdaq 0.8%
  • In New York: BHP +0.8% ; Rio +1.2% ; Atlassian +1.3%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.1% ; FTSE -0.3% ; CAC -1% ; DAX -0.7%
  • Spot gold -0.7% to $US1792.36/oz
  • Brent crude +2.7% to $US75.56 a barrel
  • US oil +3.2% to $US72.68 a barrel
  • Iron ore -4.1% to $US116.65 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.21% ; Australia -0.01%
  • 5 year yield: US 0.80% ; Australia 0.59%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.30% ; Australia 1.20% ; Germany -0.31




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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