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Commodities, General discussion of commodities
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:16 AM
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As flagged in yesterday's Brief, a good bounce for iron ore overnight as it closed at $107.55 (+14.40%) p/t on the back of better risk sentiment. Technically, iron ore remains oversold, and our expectation is for the recovery to extend in the coming sessions back towards $130 p/t. Crude oil closed at $71.96 (+2.09%) and remains a favourite of ours due to the ongoing demand and supply imbalance highlighted again last night as EIA data showed U.S. inventories fell to their lowest level in three years. Technically the decline from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low is viewed as a completed correction, and we continue to look for a test and break of the $76.98 high in the coming weeks

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so, the ore price is over shooting the down side target of usd$100/t, now it snap back.



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 22 2021, 09:38 AM
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A test today for iron ore after it closed unchanged overnight at $94 p/t and ahead of the return from holiday of Chinese markets. I sense that with iron ore deeply oversold, a sharp bounce is likely in the coming sessions back towards $130 p/t. Gold closed higher overnight at $1775 (+0.65%) after holding support $1750/40 area. This provides the basis for a potential inverted head and shoulders bottom pattern, which projects a move towards $2000, providing gold can break and close above the neckline/triple top at $1835

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the study might be right as RIO BHP FMG all closed up little bit yesterday. seems the miner price leads the ore price these days??!! unsure.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 21 2021, 09:30 AM
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Iron ore closed at $94 p/t (-6.70%), below $100 for the first time in 14 months, on concerns Chinese property developer, Evergrande will default. 50% of all steel produced in China is used in property construction. Stability in Chinese property developers urgently needed to prevent further falls in the price of iron ore this week. Crude oil fell 1.85% to close at $70.64, caught up in the risk aversion flows and a stronger U.S. dollar. Technically the view remains that the decline from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low completed a correction and that a retest and break of the $76.98 high will be forthcoming. Given the increase in volatility, we would not want to see crude oil break below support at $67.00 to remain with the bullish view.

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why the ore price is little higher than others?? unsure.gif


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early birds
post Posted: Sep 20 2021, 05:37 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 20 2021, 03:25 PM

i remember when ore price hit usd$150ish , i try to short RIO [ OVEER 115 bucks that time];
70--80% of chinese steal mill either loss money or make nothing when 62% ore price hit usd150ish bucks. but the price kept going higher to usd$220--230 ish, i kiknda scratch my head to see the way how people push it to the sky.
now , we see ore collapsed in very short time frame, i guess some of the hedge fund took big shorts laughing all the way to the banks without little fish like us [most of us been stopped out for the shorts] thumbdown.gif

now we are looking at ore price support at usd$80ish. it's just TA .



 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 20 2021, 03:25 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 20 2021, 10:29 AM

Iron ore futures dipped below $90
QUOTE
The relentless pace of the iron ore collapse has strategists at a loss as to when producers might see a reprieve, as prices extended their fall below $US100 a tonne on Monday, inflicting further pain on the major miners and the national accounts.

Futures in Singapore hit a low of $US90 a tonne upon their return to trading for the October contract, tumbling 11.5 per cent from where they closed on Friday.

The spot price dropped 4.9 per cent to $US101.95 a tonne, according to Fastmarkets MB, taking the commodity's weekly loss to 21.4 per cent. Longer dated contracts were spared the carnage witnessed in the short term market. March 2022 futures fell 1.6 per cent to $US96 a tonne on the SGX




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early birds
post Posted: Sep 20 2021, 10:29 AM
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Some profit-taking in crude oil on Friday after its 3% gain for the week and as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production following recent hurricanes. We remain bullish crude oil, looking for a retest and break of the July $76.98 high Iron ore took another leg lower on Friday to close at $101.95 p/t (-4.90%), on expectations of weaker demand from China and increasing supply from Brazil. Adding to downside risks, the deepening woes of Chinese property developer, Evergrande. Iron ore needs to hold $100 p/t or risk a deeper pullback towards $80p/t

 


early birds
post Posted: Sep 17 2021, 09:21 AM
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Copper closed at $4.2690 (-3.12%) on the back of risk aversion, a stronger U.S dollar, and headlines yesterday that China would sell more of its reserves, including copper, aluminium, and zinc. Copper needing a break and close above resistance near $4.50 to confirm that its four-month correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. Iron ore’s meteoric fall from grace has continued as the spot price closed at $106.60 p/t (-6.10%), still reeling after data on Wednesday showed that August steel production in China dropped to a 17month low, the fastest drop in 17 years. Support at $100 p/t is expected to hold in the coming sessions.

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still holding little shorts on RIO, think it will go under $100 bucks soon. imho though.



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 16 2021, 09:39 AM
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Crude oil closed over 3% higher at $72.63 after a U.S. government report showing a bigger-than-expected decline in crude stockpiles and as the impact from Hurricane Ida on the US Gulf Coast continues to linger. Technically the view remains, crude oil completed a three-wave corrective pullback from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low of August, and the uptrend has resumed targeting a test and break of the $76.98 high. Iron ore’s meteoric fall from grace has continued as the spot price closed at $113.40 p/t (-5.80%). Yesterday data in China showed that August steel production dropped to a 17month low, the fastest drop in 17 years. Under these influences, further falls towards $100 p/t are likely.


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early birds
post Posted: Sep 15 2021, 09:35 AM
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Crude oil closed higher at $70.43 (+1.35%), consolidating its break higher as the impact from Hurricane Ida on the US Gulf Coast continues to linger. Technically the view remains, crude oil completed a three-wave corrective pullback from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low of August, and the uptrend has resumed. Iron ore’s fall from grace has continued as the spot price closed at $120.35 per tonne (-1.80%), now 50% below its high of $240 per tonne in May. China, which buys 97% of all iron ore from Australia and Brazil, is reducing steel output to reduce carbon emissions at the same time as Brazil is increasing supply. Under these influences, further falls towards $100 per tonne are likely. China will report August steel production in today's industrial production numbers.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 13 2021, 09:01 AM
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Copper closed higher on Friday at $4.43 (+3.35%) after news that Shanghai copper stocks fell 10.7% from the previous week to their lowest level in almost ten years. Watching now for a break and close above trend channel resistance at $4.50 as an initial indication a retest of the $4.888 high is underway. Crude oil closed higher at $69.71 (+2.30%) as the impact from Hurricane Ida on the US Gulf Coast continues to linger. A break and close above recent highs $70.50ish would be an initial indication the next leg higher towards the $76.98 high is underway.

 
 


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