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NXL, NUIX LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Sep 13 2021, 09:06 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 30 2021, 12:55 PM

Nuix Limited (ASX: NXL) has entered into an agreement to acquire all the shares in Topos Labs, Inc. a developer of Natural Language Processing software that helps computer systems better understand text and spoken words at speed and scale.

Topos is a software company headquartered in Boston. Its artificial intelligence driven NLP platform is designed to reduce the workload on data reviewers and analysts by surfacing relevant or risky content faster. Its mission is to provide customers with risk-oriented content intelligence for proactive risk management and regulatory compliance.

Topos’s early stage platform is already able to automate accurate analysis and classification of complex content in documents, electronic communications, and social media. NLP models can be defined directly by business users through the no code user interface, reducing the time required to identify risk in an organisation’s data. Topos is then also able to present the risk assessment of confidential, sensitive, and regulated content in user friendly dashboards.






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 30 2021, 12:55 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 30 2021, 12:59 PM

Nuix has swung to a $1.6 million statutory loss in financial 2021, versus a profit of $23.6 million in financial 2020. Revenue rose 0.1 per cent to $176 million. On a pro forma or adjusted basis it said profit rose 33.2 per cent to $25 million, versus $18.8 million in the prior year.


It said it won 100 new customers over the year at an average order value of $240,000. Customer churn finished at 3.7 per cent.


........ now that is a Growth Stock! (if growth in downgrades is a positive).... down 10% to mid $2s again.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 30 2021, 12:59 PM
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and further pain .... all of their own making
QUOTE
Nuix chairman Jeffrey Bleich said Nuix is genuinely disturbed by the allegations concerning its former chief financial officer, Stephen Doyle, and will fully assist ASIC in getting to the bottom of that matter after ASIC commenced an investigation. This investigation also includes Ross and Ronald Doyle.

Nuix has learned of a separate investigation into the affairs of Nuix related to its financial statements and prospectus, with which it plans to fully cooperate, it added


and the shareprice .... down >>>> Low of $2.16






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 22 2021, 04:29 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 15 2021, 03:40 PM

Today marked further pain for Nuix, the embattled tech group, which touched its record low closing price during the day and ended 0.8 per cent lower at $2.62, just 3¢ above its lowest level. The shares have lost three quarters of their value since a peak in January.

The company last week announced an overhaul to its senior ranks and today faced news that it must turn over documents relating to $80 million in stock options cashed by Tony Castagna, a former executive, in relation to potential breaches of the Corporation Act.





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 15 2021, 03:40 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 31 2021, 11:17 AM

new CEO, new COO ..... janitor on double shift cleaning up the mess?
Up a few percent, to $2.75


If the CIO went, I would be really worried.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: May 31 2021, 11:17 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 3 2021, 03:11 PM

and whoopsy daisy .... drop another 15% and settling around $2.80
QUOTE
Nuix has downgraded its financial year 2021 revenue targets for the second time in two months, adding fresh pressure to its share price after a sharp drop over the past few weeks.

Nuix anticipates revenue for the year to June 30 of $173 million to $182 million, down from a forecast in April of $180 million to $185 million.

The company said the outlook for earnings before interest and tax would remain the same, but its annualised contract value would also fall, and is forecast to slip to $165 million to $172 million, down from prior guidance of $168 million to $177 million.





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: May 3 2021, 03:11 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 24 2021, 04:54 PM

and back under $4.00 today. There is quite a searing article on Nuix in the AFR today, along the lines of
QUOTE
[t]he Nuix honeymoon is over and investors are now wondering whether they are the victims of a well-orchestrated heist or a bumbling transition to public life.

Nuix, an intelligence analytics and data firm, was exactly what the Australian share market wanted ... a global software company that was a leader in a growing and critical field.

After a strong 60+% stag at IPO time and trading as high as $11.90 (IPO was at $5.31) the reason for the miss, Nuix said, was due to a delay in sign ups and renewals. Not to worry. It had "strong visibility" it would make up for the delay via a strong second half and still deliver the full-year target of $194 million of revenue, or $200 million via its preferred annualised contract value metric.
Then on 21 April it confessed it would not make prospectus forecasts. Post the IPO, there is universal agreement that Nuix's accounting has been on the far end of the aggressive scale.

QUOTE
When Nuix signs up a client on a multi-year contract, it books at least 80 per cent of it up-front. These large contracts have tended to account for about 15 per cent of its annual revenues, but in 2020 that shot up to 23 per cent, and was forecast to drop back down to 15 per cent.Interestingly, the share of multiyear deals ran ahead of prospectus forecasts in the first half, at 23 per cent. Nuix said this was a result of more corporate clients requiring a mix of its subscription, consumption and software-as-a-service offerings.

Nuix also changed its revenue recognition policies in mid-2020, just as it prepared to float.

Under the new measure, it accounted for less of its revenues from multi-year contracts up front as licensing fees and more as recurring service and maintenance. That led revenues to be restated, lowering previous years, but also led to a sharp increase in deferred revenues. The new policy also allowed Nuix to show a better match between revenues and cash receipts.

A dig into the accounts also showed that once adjustments are made for its acquisition of Ringtail in 2018, Nuix's revenue growth was fairly modest at around 10 per cent.
..
QUOTE
The challenge now for investors is to know what base revenue they should work off to determine how well the company has tracked, and is likely to track.

When Nuix flagged it would miss its full year revenue guidance in April, they did give it a positive spin. The reason was a higher-than-expected number of clients were transitioning to a consumption model from an up-front 'all you can eat agreement'.

The consequence was that the large up-front contracts would be replaced by steadier more reliable streams. Those in aggregate were higher margin and therefore more valuable, even if the transition would be a little painful.
Then there is the capitalisation of research and development, which is high among ASX companies. Nuix capitalises, rather than expenses, about 84 per cent of R&D which it amortises over 10 years.

This treatment may boost earnings but it manifests itself in the negligible free cash flow. The low free cash flow, according to one fund manager that ran the ruler over Nuix, can be tolerated for a fast growing organic business that is investing for growth. But for a mature company with sub 10 per cent revenue growth, "it's a red flag".



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 24 2021, 04:54 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 8 2021, 02:27 PM

got down to just above $4

NXL provides commentary on recent trading conditions following completion of an internal quarterly management review.
• Pro Forma Revenue of $180m to $185m (vs $193.5m forecast in the IPO Prospectus)
• Annualised Contract Value of $168m-$177m (vs $199.6m)
• Pro Forma EBITDA of $64.6m-$66.6m (vs $63.6m)
• Acceleration in customer transition to consumption and software as a service (SaaS) licenses impacts the revenue profile but delivers significant longer-term business model benefits
• Current operating climate has reduced near-term upsell opportunities, while revenue from renewals and new business remain in line with expectations
• Strong underlying business performance with substantial increases in new customers won, and total and average order values, compared to the same period in FY20


During April, a significant and larger than expected number of Nuix's customers, including one of its largest, elected to transition from module-based subscription licenses to consumption and SaaS license models, resulting in a shift in both revenue and ACV profiles.

Some of Nuix's law firm, advisory and service provider customers have also recently informed Nuix of a reduced add-on (upsell) requirement for existing licenses. This is due to both their unutilised license capacity in the current climate, as well as the recovery in legal case backlog being slower than anticipated.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 8 2021, 02:27 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 27 2021, 09:58 AM

now $4.80. Insto's bailing.

Following the Half Yearlies, CEO Rod Vawdrey reaffirmed its full-year guidance and blamed the half year revenue hiccup on currency movements, a resurgence of COVID-19 in key geographies and delays in contract signing given a longer than expected transition among government clients following the US election.

Statutory revenue fell 3.9 per cent to $85.3 million and its pro forma net profit was $9.5 million.

An insider said,
QUOTE
.the feedback he is getting from existing and prospective investors is that Nuix could do a better job in terms of enunciating the key drivers of its business and prospects.

Its revenue recognition policy is now under scrutiny and a number of shareholders are evaluating its status as a growth stock and where it goes from here. There are two ways to measure revenue: statutory revenue, required under its accounting standards, and annual contract value, a commonly used metric in the software industry to average annualised revenue per customer contract. The prospectus describes ACV as "removing fluctuations from multi‑year deals in Nuix's total revenue which results from its revenue recognition policies".

Under its statutory revenue measure, multi-year contracts can be recognised and booked upfront ... as much as 80 per cent can be booked upfront , and the rest deferred over the life of the contract for support and maintenance. In a statement, Nuix said upfront multiyear deals made up 25 per cent of its 2020 revenues and 23 per cent of revenues in the first half of FY21.
QUOTE
With a continued rise in software as a service deals which are recognised on a month to month basis, the percentage of MYDs is expected to decrease.
Some investors believe ACV is a better measure of the company's revenue performance. In its prospectus, Nuix forecasts ACV growth of 18.6 per cent for the full year, a figure that attracted growth investors. In the December half, ACV was 4 per cent, which many investors believe will make it difficult to reach its full-year forecasts, something the company rejects.

....xxxx.....x.x.x.x.x.x.....xxxxx.....


In a further reiteration, today the company once again said it was still on track to hit its full-year estimate of $193.5 million in revenue, as well as an annualised contract value of $200 million (the company's preferred growth metric), earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $28.6 million and a net loss of $7.7 million.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 27 2021, 09:58 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 26 2021, 10:06 AM

tech selloff !! closed at day low of $6.06 (in fact its lowest ever)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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