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Foreign Currency, Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:14 AM
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The AUDUSD closed at .7262 (+0.41%) after a brief spike higher to .7300c after the FOMC meeting. We remain on the sidelines in the AUDUSD, aware that the market is sitting very short AUDUSD, however also cognisant of the idea the market appears interested in retesting the August .7106 low

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 22 2021, 09:35 AM
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The AUDUSD closed lower at .7230 (-0.32%) and needing to see evidence that Chinese authorities have the Evergrande situation under control to prevent a retest of the August .7106 low. With the market sitting very short the AUDUSD, there is some potential for a sharp snap back over the next 24 hours—something to be aware of.


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aware of short squeeeeeeezzzz?? lmaosmiley.gif use the stops guys!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 21 2021, 09:28 AM
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Compared to the action in other asset classes, it was a rather dull affair in FX overnight. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7238 (-0.34%) as the U.S. dollar found broad-based support on risk aversion flows. Little fresh news is expected from today’s RBA meeting minutes following RBA Governor Lowes speech at the Anika Foundation lunch last week that reiterated interest rate hikes are highly unlikely before 2024

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 17 2021, 09:18 AM
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The AUDUSD closed below .7300c for the first time since late August following a mixed AU labour force report, and on risk aversion flows and better than expected U.S. retail sales that supported the U.S dollar. Bounces are likely to find sellers on the day ahead of resistance at .7350.

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AUD looks weak on TA base.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 16 2021, 09:38 AM
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The AUDUSD also closed flat at .7327 ahead of today’s lockdown affected AU August jobs data. There is an extreme ride range of forecasts for today’s jobs number. For example, estimates for the unemployment rate vary from 4.8% to 5.5%! For the record, the market expects to see the unemployment rate rise from 4.6% to 5.0%. Employment is expected to fall 110k, along with a sharp decline in the participation rate from 66% to 65.5%. Support at .7320/00 needs to continue to hold to prevent a deeper pullback towards .7200c

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 15 2021, 09:34 AM
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The AUDUSD is the biggest mover in G10 FX overnight as it closed lower at .7328 (-0.53%) on risk aversion flows and following a dovish speech yesterday by RBA Governor Lowe. Support at .7320/00 needs to hold to prevent a deeper pullback towards .7200c.

 


early birds
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 10:00 AM
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The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed higher for a third session at 92.70 (+0.20%), again benefitting from risk aversion buying. The daily close above 92.60 results in a more neutral bias, needing a sustained break of support 91.95/75 or resistance at 93.20/93.70ish to put an end to the DXY’s range trading. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7378 (-0.11%) after testing the upper echelon of a band of support between .7340/00. After its 5% rally from the .7106 low, the best guess is the AUDUSD has entered a new higher trading range with sellers operating ahead of the 200 day moving average .7550/.7600 and dip buyers likely ahead of the .7320/00 support region.


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my long trade on AUD been stopped out!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 8 2021, 09:23 AM
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The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, gained higher for a second straight session at 92.55 (+0.36%), benefitting from risk aversion buying and bringing into question the rejection from the August 93.72 high. That said, while below resistance at 92.60, give the downtrend a chance to reassert itself, aware that should the DXY index reclaim resistance at 92.60ish on a closing basis, it would negate the bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7390 (-0.34%), after initially trading 25 pips higher to .7468 after the RBA elected to taper its QE program despite ongoing lockdowns in Melbourne and Sydney. After its 5% rally from the .7106 low, our best guess is the AUDUSD is entering a new higher trading range with sellers operating ahead of the 200 day moving average .7550/.7600 and dip buyers likely emerging ahead of the .7320/00 support region.

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i'm long AUD as well, but trading only [ stop loss is set really tight]



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 7 2021, 09:29 AM
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The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, broke its run of five straight losing days, closing higher at 92.22 (+0.20%). Nonetheless, after the clear rejection from the August 93.72 high and the break of support at 92.60/40, a bearish bias is in place, looking for a test of the 200-day ma at 91.30/20. Keeping in mind, should the DXY index reclaim resistance at 92.60ish, it would negate the bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7434 (-0.34%), taking a breather after a 5% rally from the .7106 low and ahead of this afternoon's RBA meeting at 2.30 pm. The impact of extended lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne is expected to see the RBA delay the scheduled taper of its QE program. However, due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies and the soft US jobs number on Friday, the preference is to buy dips in the AUDUSD between .7400 and .7300c.

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 6 2021, 10:25 AM
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The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed lower at 92.035 (-0.21 building further on the rejection from the August 93.72 high. As a result, a bearish US dollar bias is now in place, looking for a test of the 200-day ma at 91.30/20 with scope for a deeper move towards range lows near 90.00. Keeping in mind, should the DXY index reclaim resistance at 92.60ish, it would negate the bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed higher a .7458 (+0.78%), extending its recovery from the .7106 low and opening up a move above .7500c. As noted in recent updates, the AUDUSD is likely to be well supported in the coming weeks due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies. As such, pullbacks that follow the dovish RBA Board meeting on Tuesday are likely to be limited.

 
 


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