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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
endymion96
post Posted: Oct 25 2019, 06:52 AM
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In Reply To: Desert Rat's post @ Oct 25 2019, 02:23 AM

PTN recent fall from grace (above US$1.50) occurred due to 40 million share ATM offering just a day or so after FDA approval. This dumb move by management killed all of the momentum and then shorters came in and drove it down further. SP is holding at resistance level now waiting for Vyleesi sales news to pull it back up and onward. I believe, due to the way AMAG (licensee) is marketing the drug and the education of doctors that must first occur, ramp up will start out slow and then accelerate ...as will sales. So, SP will follow suit. I do not expect this investment to blossom until at least a year of increasing sales has been achieved. But I do believe once the train starts chugging along, it won't be stopped. At any rate, I'm not sure an apples to apples comparison to Clinuvel can be made due to the ATM used to fund PTN future pipeline. Both companies have an FDA approved drug, and both drugs work effectively. I believe the investment in Clinuvel is the better bet right now because Palatin has an effectiveness issue that it must first dispell. Similar to how many people thought Scenesse was not very effective due to incorrect measurement of sunlight exposure during trials, Palatin has the same kind of thing with going on with HSDD measurement effectiveness. The drug works and works well. If they can expand drug to male population, it will explode since males respond much more easily and the measurement (i.e. boner) is not in doubt ... where other drugs like Viagra, etc ... failed to work on some men. Sales of Vyleesi have barely even started. I don't expect any news until early 2020.


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Desert Rat
post Posted: Oct 25 2019, 02:23 AM
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Preclinical article from Jan. of this year on Palatin’s MC1r-specific melanocortins, PL-8177 and PL-8331 in anti-inflammatory models in vivo. This was written by Palatin’s CEO Carl Spana who clearly did none of the actual work, since it was all done by contract labs. Nonetheless, PL-8177 does compare very favorably with other known anti-inflammatory agents, specifically, Restasis (cyclosporin) for dry eye and sulfasalazine for gastrointestinal inflammation, both in mouse models. PL-8331 was also superior to a-MSH in experimental autoimmune uveitis in a mouse model. And importantly, unlike Clinuvel, PTN is actively advancing their follow-on melanocortin drug candidates into clinical trials, and in non-pigmentation indications.
Having said that, PTN's stock remains hopelessly mired under $1.00, and there are no indications that bremelanotide (Vyleesi) has gotten any significant market share. So, it highlights the much-better investment that Clinuvel has yielded to date. I also saw that at one time, PTN's stock was valued at almost $90/share- how the mighty have fallen.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P...ar-09-01535.pdf



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blackm3
post Posted: Oct 25 2019, 02:16 AM
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In Reply To: hibchibbler's post @ Oct 25 2019, 01:16 AM

Hey everyone ,
Looking at the clinuvel annual report released in the past week or so ...
Are we expecting another phase 2 vitiligo trial or are we jumping to a phase 3 vitiligo trial ?
One of the graphs in the report points / gives one the idea we are heading for a phase 3..?
Cheers guys

 
hibchibbler
post Posted: Oct 25 2019, 01:16 AM
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In Reply To: Billy Boots's post @ Oct 24 2019, 02:42 PM

Those are all deprecated..
Now a days, it's:
sksksksksksks

 
johnnytech
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 11:01 PM
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In Reply To: LegendInMySpareTime's post @ Oct 24 2019, 08:54 PM

That's a good point, thank you. FYI, 2014 was another good November that is missing from the bottom graph.

I have this expectation that when the shorters close out, it'll be quick. February is my expectation, November is my hope. (February because of FDA approvals averages).

If shorters take a slow exit strategy, then this price movement prediction is off the table. Separately, I don't think they'll wait till a NASDAQ listing either to exit.


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LevelHeaded2000
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 09:07 PM
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In Reply To: LegendInMySpareTime's post @ Oct 24 2019, 08:54 PM

I don't think many posters are putting faith in it. It is more likely that they are getting hyped because they see something that corroborates what they intuitively feel right or wrong.

I personally expect the stock to be somewhat range bound with a slight upward trend. I do expect November to higher than now simply because it seems most sellers are done selling and shorters probably don't want to risk doing a lot more shorting, but I don't expect a 50% bull. That will come in probably something like January when Clinuvel fires off a press release about official roll out to the US, first product sold to the US, etc. That, IMO, will mark the real, meaningful trend reversal into a strong bull uptrend.


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LegendInMySpareT...
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 08:54 PM
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In Reply To: johnnytech's post @ Oct 24 2019, 08:38 PM

Several people have referred to November being a good month on average, but looking at the historical averages that is only really created by Nov. 2010 where the stock went up 792% according to shortman's seasonality graph. https://www.shortman.com.au/seasonality?q=CUV

Seeing that's a clear outlier it probably makes sense to discount that performance, looking at the other years the average return is -1.32%.

I am no specialist in technical trading and algo trading etc, but it seems to me that it might be a bit optimistic thinking that these type of traders won't be able to discount an abnormal return that happened once, 9 years ago? Or am I wrong?


PS: I am long in CUV since 2016 and have increased my position steady ever since, and have strong faith in a bright future for the company. I am just curious in why many on this board put such faith into November historical numbers.




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LevelHeaded2000
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 08:50 PM
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In Reply To: IntiRaymi's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:47 PM

Yes, I believe Clinuvel will show similar stock chart as Avita. The PW incentive package incentivizes PW to market the company, so that will be the deciding factors. Clinuvel is mostly held by 20 large shareholders. It needs to get a few more thousand retail holders and new institutions on board. That is when stock price goes up 5x.


Looking at the Avita annual report there are some interesting findings.
  1. Since July 2018 Avita has diluted shareholders to the tune of 564 million stock shares (that is over 10x than all clinuvel shares). At current prices that is worth about 400 million dollars. This does not even include the 111 million shares that are unissued shares due to stock options. Nor does it include the executives performance incentives. For all the negatives this board has against the Clinuvel management be thankful that Clinuvel is not diluting shareholders like this. The compensation package while ultimately dilutive it also is aligned with shareholders and there is no way PW will hit every target.
  2. Avita is still suffering from huge losses. I would have no doubts they will dilute shareholders more

I would say if Avita can achieve price increases of it's stock given the above, then Clinuvel which is in a much better financial position and also a growing market will have an easy time producing similar market gains. Clinuvel is in a stronger position than Avita, IMO.

The primary difference between Avita / Clinuvel is the way each management is trying to market the company. Avita is obviously trying to gain more investors (nasdaq listing, lots of PR, etc). This is probably due to the fact that it is a state of continual dilution so it needs new shareholders. Clinuvel does not have that problem. On the other hand, PW's incentive package will encourage him to market the company to more shareholders, so I have no doubt he will over the next year.
Clinuvel's position is even stronger than Avita's. "It will pay off in the end"



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johnnytech
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 08:38 PM
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In Reply To: IntiRaymi's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:47 PM

Avita is one of the stocks that I used in my original prediction 1-2 weeks before approval, that it would be Feb 2020 before we saw a climb out of the inevitable retreat after approval.

What's different with Clinuvel is the 10 yr avg monthly change chart, and the extreme spike in Novembers for CUV. (Avita has no seasonality to their 10 yr avg). My revised prediction was the short attack may close out in November.

Either way, I think we'll see all time highs in November or Feb and it'll be sustained like Avita.

By the way, I use shortman to find seasonality charts.


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Farleap11
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 08:26 PM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:31 PM

Apologies to all (particularly IntiRaymi) for misleading you on the closing price. As you correctly point out Verharven, in my haste I incorrectly typed A$34.40 instead of A$30.40. My calculation of monies outlaid was based upon the correct rate of A$30.40 x 200,000 to arrive at the A$6.08m.

No doubt like all other contributors on this board, I wish that it had closed at A$34.40. No doubt we will get back to that level and beyond in the coming months. In the meantime and in closing let me simply say, bring on the AGM.


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