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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
sharelooker
post Posted: Today, 12:08 AM
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Another ETF that tracks the S&P/ASX 200 index:

Lyxor Australia S&P/ASX 200 UCITS ETF
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LAUU:LN

 
FarmaZutical
post Posted: Today, 12:07 AM
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In Reply To: NewToCli's post @ Yesterday, 11:37 PM

As everybody here, I’ve made a nice profit but I’m very binary about this investment. I’m not selling anything at this
moment because I know I’d hate myself for not seeing my original plan through.
I’m not worried about the FDA and I believe we will see a lot of new
initiatives being made public soon after approval. Yes, they never ever
live up to their own timelines and, yes, they bury stuff. What ever happened with
the cosmetic line that was delayed due to a supplier issue ? That kind of
misleading statements, I don’t like. But I’m sure they will eventually get
things done and Wolgen’s interests are very much aligned with ours.


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NewToCli
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:37 PM
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In Reply To: FarmaZutical's post @ Yesterday, 10:40 PM

Yes I know. First hit from Sphene was 32 aud for Epp globally. He used a very high wacc which I don’t agree with because Epp income is like saver money than cash at the bank. From my own calculations including a probability weighted evaluation of vitiligo XP and VP I derive around 70 aud as a fair value as of now. My estimate goes beyond 2030 with slow ramp up... I know of the potential etc.

I just wonder about Cuv being able to deliver on it and especially when?!!! So having now (!) a level of 40 aud almost before(!) fda seems quite fair evaluated, with many question marks that are not answered by the management team... the only thing is that they continually do is not to do deliver on their promises.
I guess in the end it comes down to
- how much of millions you have now made in Cuv
- how much you are willing to wait and still be in the risk
- how much you trust the management team to deliver or initiate a well paid take over




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macgyver
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:03 PM
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In Reply To: FarmaZutical's post @ Yesterday, 10:40 PM

I have EPP sales for Europe and America at $200 million with 1500 patients in America and the current patient numbers in Europe (with 6 implants in USA) roughing out at $3.25 per share. Use 20 as a multiple based on Sphene Capital’s 2020/21 estimation and the sp is $65, or conversely using a multiple of 12 (average for established Pharma companies) = $39.

To me $40 seems an appropriate target before FDA approval. And then there’s Japan and Australia to contend with. Japan will have some material effect concerning profit but I don’t see Australia being significant in the scheme of things (although every dollar helps the bottom line of course and the added benefit of having Scenesse in the Australian market for the next indications).

This is a pure stab in the dark but over the next 18 months I don’t picture the sp going higher than $55-70. Of course with all the expectations concerning Scenesse for future revenue, a somewhat exorbitantly high P/E ratio could be a possibility for the next 2-3 years. If that’s the case then the sky is the limit and perhaps $100 per share is coming in relatively short order.


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FarmaZutical
post Posted: Yesterday, 10:40 PM
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In Reply To: NewToCli's post @ Yesterday, 09:53 PM

Sphene Capital has done a very thorough evaluation that I mostly agree with.
But I’ve posted my own back of the envelope calculations here many times and I’m
happy to do it again. IMO we’re not overvalued in any way.

I expect NICE to come back with some sort of positive final determination.
GB is is app. 400 patients.

Germany is expanding, Holland is fully online, Austria a few patients and it seems
France could come online soon. Add at least 4-500 patients in the US very quickly
after FDA approval and we’ll be treating app. 1,500 patients within the next year or so.
Clinuvel seems to already factor in 6 implants in the US (per the latest presentation) and
they are trying to expand in the EU as well. Conservatively, I will use 4 implants
in my calculation.

1,500 patients x US$ 64,000 per year = US$ 96 m. revenue / US$48 m. earnings x 25 ratio = 1,2 b. / 49 m. s/o =
US$ 24,4 pps.

This is very conservative.

Here, NOTHING else is part of the valuation. Not 6 implants, not EPP in Australia and especially Japan, not a risk weighed
valuation of any of the other indications, nor the topicals, Enfance, OTC or especially Vitiligo.
Other companies with prospects less promising than Clinuvel and with no approved products
on the market can have higher valuations just based on hopes and dreams.







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NewToCli
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:53 PM
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In Reply To: Dr Wally's post @ Yesterday, 08:21 PM

Very true smile.gif and it’s because we know everything about the potential and he management team.

But I’m also wondering if anybody here would regard Cuv as fairly or even over valued once we hit the 40 aud before approval? The approval is just for EPP and considering the slow penetration and still bureaucratic hurdles we don’t know how much and especially when revenues will sum up to a couple of 100 millions (to justify such an evaluation). Then the drug is highly restricted and until it can become available for the masses and other indications, many many years will pass by...
Just trying to bring in a realistic or conservative view.. for those who are not willing to wait another 10 years


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Dr Wally
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:21 PM
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In Reply To: Kboy69's post @ Yesterday, 03:35 AM


ASX200 inclusion does nothing to eliminate any of the uncertainty that still exists of a possible FDA rejection. 😱 I’m sure there’ll be interest because of it that didn’t exist before but that might take some time??

I’m 95% certain that that won’t happen but there are many out there that are of the belief that the FDA will either drag this out for a couple of years yet (a la Euro) OR simply say “NOPE” erasing the hopes of the EPP community of living a normal life without to hassle and cost travelling to the other side of the world for access to the super safe drug AND devastating investors financial futures all because of idiotic fears of “tanning” abuse by the masses.

So even at this late stage of development it’s just too risky for some to invest especially if your not thinking outside of the box by only factoring EPP into the equation.

FDA approval on the other hand (obviously) evaporates any remaining uncertainty about the future of Clinuvel and guarantees that the incredible potential of this drug, that has been dreamt and talked about for decades, will 100% be realised over the next few years (post approval)

For what it’s worth I’m of the opinion that this game changing potential is no where near “baked into the current SP either. What other drug or company can you compare Clinuvel and it’s enigmatic, controversial drug Scenesse to? None! 😎



--------------------
50+ on or before PDUFA... GLTA that have seen the future and kept the faith. 😎

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Zodiac1
post Posted: Yesterday, 02:37 PM
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In Reply To: Johnny H's post @ Yesterday, 11:37 AM

QUOTE
I'm still incredibly irritated about the recent delay


Inclusion in June followed by approval in July would have been great timing, in theory anyways. I was not counting on it, but I had been thinking long and hard about the possibilities.... I have a very reasonable target price, wink.gif

I've been in this too long, need to go bye bye, preferably before the men in white coats attempt to hall me away to the padded room. wacko.gif

 
Johnny H
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:37 AM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Yesterday, 08:06 AM

In addition to the explicit ASX 200 index funds, I'm optimistic about some of the category funds (small cap, mid cap, international. etc) and the sector funds (medical and biotech).

When Clinuvel was added to the ASX 300, we were all closely watching the Vanguard ASX 300 fund, as it seemed to be the only game in town.

In addition, Vanguard picked up the stock in several other funds (at different times), including "Total International Stock Index Fund", "Developed Markets Index Fund", "FTSE All-World (excluding US) Small Cap Index Fund", and "Pacific Stock Index Fund".

While we can estimate the likely purchases of domestic (to Australia) ASX 200 index funds after the recent inclusion, there's no way of telling what the international funds might do. Whatever it is, it's definitely better now than it was before, so again, I'm optimistic.

I'm still incredibly irritated about the recent delay, but that post is for another time. I'm still trying to find the words.



--------------------
Clinuvel until my bowels release for the last time.

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Verharven
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:06 AM
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One more ASX200 ETF - it's German based and pretty small, but every bit helps

Xtrackers S&P ASX 200 UCITS ETF

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAUS:GR


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