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Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?
early birds
post Posted: May 15 2019, 02:16 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 15 2019, 11:07 AM

so, banks not necessarily the bastards (just prudent)?

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ask RC . seems they have the answer you wanted nipper.
it is a chaotic world out there. i for one not gonna bet my bottom dollar on it----it's just too risky. unsure.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: May 15 2019, 11:07 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 15 2019, 10:51 AM

QUOTE
by their non-bank lenders.....
so, banks not necessarily the bastards (just prudent)?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: May 15 2019, 10:51 AM
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https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential...y_Sent=15052019

Sydney developer Mark Bainey has pooled $50 million from wealthy investors to bulk buy newly-completed apartments at up to 30 per cent discounts as oversupply fears and high funding costs start to bite projects amid the weaker market conditions.

......

“We have been fielding approaches from concerned developers who have been unable to sell due to oversupply concerns in suburbs such as Epping, Parramatta, Mascot, Macquarie Park and Waterloo,” he said

....

Alongside apartment fires sales, developers are also coming under pressure to sell whole projects by their non-bank lenders.
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i reckon it just start. the distress will run a lot deeper and further.

 
early birds
post Posted: May 13 2019, 09:49 PM
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http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2019/05/13/8305560.html

hope you guys can get someone to translate it.
basicly it says " no trees grow to the sky" it is long and painful housing bear market with aussies.

well, we still have someone hold bullish view with our beloved housing market from those "housing gurus".
i'm in the bear camp/

.



 
nipper
post Posted: May 1 2019, 12:24 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 30 2019, 06:42 PM

QUOTE
About 108,000 millionaires migrated across borders last year, a 14 per cent increase from the prior year, and more than double the level in 2013, according to Johannesburg-based New World Wealth.

Australia, US and Canada are the top destinations, according to the research firm, while China and Russia are the biggest losers. The UK saw around 3000 millionaires depart last year with Brexit and taxation cited as possible reasons......
... goes on to point out that there are no Inheritance Taxes in Australia.
https://www.afr.com/leadership/afr-lists/au...20190430-p51isy

- housing is often and rightly thought of as a lifestyle choice not an investment asset; people make decisions for a variety of reasons that can be emotional as much as rational

((And interestingly, Australia, Canada and USA are the three nations most accepting of refugees, with the numbers running at 6, 4 and 3 respectively, last year. In terms of sentiment, more than just a coincidence I would think ... <..... and one at odds to the leftist mush about our lack of resettlement generosity> ))



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 30 2019, 06:42 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 30 2019, 01:36 PM

Spot on EB, For those old enough to remember the heady days of 1980's when Japanese buyers paid ridiculous prices for Gold Coast property, its a sense of deja vu all over again.
And it all ended in tears.
History is truly great teacher. Beware the person who says "this time its different".

Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Apr 30 2019, 01:36 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Apr 30 2019, 12:45 PM

From memory the construction sector employs about 9% of Australian workers s
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yeah triage. you are right about that, and also Mick is right about infrastructure will try to hold sliding down housing market for aussie economy.

here is the thing i try to point out.
if our property market really have a nasty down turn like what Mag siad{ i really agree with him/her],, then it will spreading to other sectors likes of retailers eg...
also, Chinese Govt. is trying really hard to contain the money flow to other countries-----THEY TRY TO PLUG ALL THE LOO POLES AS THEY CAN. so there will be far less money from China to our housing market form now on.
a couple have salary about 130k/a owns 7 properties { all leveraged} dream of getting rich ---------not sure how they gonna deal with current situation . if they don't sell most of them now to take loss then banks will force them to do if housing market keeps down term at current pace. that will spill the disaster

a lot of Chinese still believe "getting rich by buying properties} i guess soon they will learn the lesson for their life ----IN A HARD WAY.


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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 30 2019, 12:59 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Apr 30 2019, 12:45 PM

There are plenty of construction workers employed in areas other than housing.

One of my sons was telling me that he is inundated with engineering work because so many tradies are only taking short term jobs cos they all want to get on the Tunnel Project in Melbourne.
Its a union dominated site where the money is good, the hours are good (especially if the union says down tools because its too hot, too cold or too wet) and its going to last a long time.

Mick



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triage
post Posted: Apr 30 2019, 12:45 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 30 2019, 12:23 PM

This is not a river in Eygpt ... I read some analyst saying that a contracting housing market will not impact employment in the sector because Australia has a long term shortage of construction workers. But if a quarter of new home buyers are not going ahead with building surely that means that the demand of work building new homes will be cut by about the same proportion. I suppose not all alotment sales were going to new home buyers as apparently amongst the uber crowd people were leveraging up to the max to sit on numerous blocks in the expectation that prices would keep spiralling upwards.

From memory the construction sector employs about 9% of Australian workers so ...
(great link eb, thanks muchly).




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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

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Mags
post Posted: Apr 30 2019, 12:38 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 30 2019, 12:23 PM

But there's a hidden ugliness not addressed in that article.
The two previous lot default peaks occurred under rising interest rate conditions: The first in 2008/09 preGFC when our mining boom was humming, and the second time in 2012 when interest rates were trying to revert to 'normal'... Since then rates have only fallen or remained steady.
We have falling house prices (fasted on record) yet:No interest rate rises.Stable/low unemploymentGood terms of trade
....yet the housing market is falling apart.
Why? Easy, the credit growth, it's the weakest on record. Check our currency supply, it stopped growing in 2017... Right when the housing boom peaked... Co-incident?? Of course not. It's also when the slide in the dollar got it's grove on.. Co-incident? Of course not.
In 2017 the australian view of property shifted seismically. The 'need' to take out monster debts to pay for home become a bad idea for the masses. Once the Chinese money stopped flowing, the whole market tanked. And it's not going to turn around anytime soon.
That housing is tanking so hard, without any negetive news to trigger it, is the telling sign. This is the 'new' normal. People are not expecting to make 10% per year on their properties anymore.
The real 'crash' is going to occur when our interest rate rises. I know the MSM are talking rate cuts, maybe 1 or 2, but our dollar is going to get punished, meaning we will be importing inflation. If they try QE, our dollar is going to get punished.
The only tool they have to prop our dollar is raising rates.... At some stage this is going to NEED to occur.
Wait for the MSM to start talking of our falling dollar, which will then move to talk that the RBA held the rates too low, for too long, which the public will buy/believe.
There's hell to be unleashed at some point: But I've been sprouting that for years now........



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