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BAL, BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 13 2019, 07:32 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 7 2019, 10:38 AM

Updated chart - SP down 3.8% today @ $10.00
Another notable short alert yesterday
QUOTE
Tue 12th Mar, 2019 634,827 113,368,297 0.56% 1,537,239 41.30%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=bal

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:38 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 28 2019, 02:27 PM

Battle of the longs vs shorts?

Notable short alerts since 22/2/19
QUOTE
Wed 6th Mar, 2019 1,559,150 113,368,297 1.37% 6,113,187 25.50%
Tue 5th Mar, 2019 985,662 113,368,297 0.86% 3,261,341 30.22%
Mon 4th Mar, 2019 1,778,177 113,368,297 1.56% 6,808,213 26.12%
Fri 1st Mar, 2019 981,648 113,368,297 0.86% 3,968,977 24.73%
Thu 28th Feb, 2019 886,081 113,368,297 0.78% 2,266,203 39.10%
Wed 27th Feb, 2019 1,459,300 113,368,297 1.28% 6,152,418 23.72%
Tue 26th Feb, 2019 885,600 113,368,297 0.78% 2,371,128 37.35%
Mon 25th Feb, 2019 841,970 113,368,297 0.74% 1,945,174 43.29%
Fri 22nd Feb, 2019 674,017 113,368,297 0.59% 1,774,098 37.99%


Total short positions as at 28/2/19 = 10.45%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=BAL
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
plastic
post Posted: Mar 4 2019, 07:19 AM
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What would happen to the Au. dairy product industry if and when the US-China FTA is sorted? They are talking about opening China to US ag. products with reduced tariffs.

My feeling is, the US would have the competitive advantage leaving the Au. sector eating their dust. Not good for BAL IMHO.






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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 28 2019, 02:27 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 25 2018, 12:21 PM

Posted 25 October 2018
QUOTE
During October there have been some 12 notable short alerts, suggesting shorters seem to have a better idea where BAL is headed than BP. Current position @ 19 October 2018 = 7.76%


Notable short alerts continue - 8 in February 2019. Total short positions as at 22nd February, 2019 = 9.78%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=BAL
SP currently $8.04 - long way from it's high a year ago of $23.07

Edit - just noticed Morgan Stanley are remain overweight BAL despite downgrading it's target price from $11-10.00 - suggesting "the sun is about to shine" and that the company's new forumula would provide a boost in the 2H of the fiscal year.

I'm sure investors will be hoping that's correct. let's see if shorters are worried

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 7 2019, 03:55 AM
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QUOTE
Much to the delight of its shareholders, it has been another positive day of trade for the Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) share price.

In late afternoon trade the organic infant formula and baby food company’s shares are up a further 6% to $9.14. This means that Bellamy’s shares have rocketed an impressive 33% in the space of just six weeks.

Why is the Bellamy’s share price on the rise?
Although there has been no news out of the company during this period of time, there have been a couple of notable broker notes that could be attributable to its strong share price performance.

One of those came last week when Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on the company with an overweight rating and $11.00 price target. This price target still implies potential upside in the region of 20% even after its stellar run.

The broker is bullish on the company’s prospects due to its belief that the launch of its new formulation could be an inflection point for its sales and earnings growth.

Elsewhere, a note out of Citi in the middle of January was similarly bullish. Its analysts have a buy rating and $10.65 price target on Bellamy’s shares.

It held firm with its buy rating despite its belief that the SAMR accreditation required to sell its products in China won’t be finalised until the end of FY 2019.

Should you invest?
Whilst I would still choose rival A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) ahead of it due to it being less exposed to regulatory risks, I still see Bellamy’s as a great long-term investment if you’re willing to be patient.

Bellamy’s financial performance is likely to underwhelm until it receives this accreditation, but when it is granted I believe its growth will move to the next level as it starts to sell Chinese label products in mother and baby stores throughout China.

What about Bubs?
Fellow infant formula company Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) has seen its share price rise 27% during the same period, but I would caution investors off it until its operations are profitable.
Motley Fool



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
plastic
post Posted: Dec 20 2018, 02:19 PM
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What ever happened to that China approval which was supposed to happen sometime this year?

Doesn't even get a mention these days. As if it doesn't exist or isn't important.





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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 


plastic
post Posted: Dec 11 2018, 06:09 PM
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Why no China approval?

Is this a spoke of the US trade war?






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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
plastic
post Posted: Nov 21 2018, 05:53 AM
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How come no Chinese approval yet?

Something smells. More like a dead rat than roses.

If the hold up is something to do with the Sino-US trade war then you can be sure anything BAL days and does doesn't make the slightest bit of difference to anything. Instead it will be all about politics.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 25 2018, 12:21 PM
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Always interesting when brokers downgrade their lofty targets after they see there's no hope in harry's of achieving.

During October there have been some 12 notable short alerts, suggesting shorters seem to have a better idea where BAL is headed than BP. Current position @ 19 October 2018 = 7.76%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=bal

QUOTE
Bell Potter has downgraded Bellamy's Australia by 30 per cent, forecasting the company's earnings for the next few years will take more of a hit than expected.

The broker has retained its 'hold' recommendation on the stock, but dropped its price target from $12.85 to $8.75, a 9.7 per cent premium to its Wednesday close price.

The broker said that the most material driver of value for the company overt the next three years would be its ability to successfully navigate both the re-certification of the Camperdown facility and achieve SAMR registration of its product.

The changes to CBEC channels is likely to make SAMR registration increasingly important for the pathway to China.

Bell Potter said that Bellamy's is almost a binary call on SAMR registration and as a result, it has retained its 'hold' rating.


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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Oct 25 2018, 06:57 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 24 2018, 01:53 PM

Not unexpectedly shares in dairy products group, Bellamy’s Australia took a whacking yesterday after the annual meeting heard a warning for weaker revenues and earnings in the first half of 2018-19 and possibly for the full year.

The shares ended down more than 6% at $7.98 after hitting a low of $7.66. Such violent slides (and big rises) have become a feature of this company’s share price performance in the last three years.

CEO Andrew Cohen told shareholders to expect first-half sales to decline in a range of 10% to 15% from the first half of 2017-18.

Mr. Cohen blamed the expected fall on costs of $10 million to $15 million in clearing older inventory prior to overhauling its product line ahead of the launch of a new brand and range of products in 2019..

Mr. Cohen added that full-year Australian label revenue growth for the Tasmanian company would be weaker than previously advised – at the lower end of the previously stated zero to 10% range.

“As flagged in August, we do see a more challenging FY19 trading environment and have observed slower China cross-border growth across the category, as well as increased competition in terms of both availability and trade pricing for both local and global competitors.

“We view these changes as short-term challenges that need to be cycled in FY19,” he told the meeting.

“Our guidance range is unchanged, but in the context of recent category performance, we anticipate full year Australian label revenue growth at the low end of the stated 0-10% range.

“We note that 1H19 sales are likely to be 10-15% below 1H18 due primarily to an expected $10-15M run-down of trade inventory prior to the rollout of the brand upgrade. Stronger performance is expected in 2H19 as we return to normal trading and implement key revenue initiatives including the brand upgrade launch.”

He said this includes s a continued review of the $6 million write-off provision set aside in 2017-18 for the launch to accelerate the transition and ensure a clean changeover.

Bellamy’s shareholders at the meeting also heard a warning that delays in securing a permit to sell directly in Chinese shops would slow revenue growth for as long as two years.

“China is an enormous and complex infant nutrition market and our top priority for the future,” Chairman John Ho said in his address.

Both the chair and CEO both emphasised that Bellamy’s is targeting more than $500 million in revenue by 2021, with a specific focus in China and broader Asia.
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never thought this thing can worth over 20 bucks, but am no guts to short it . looks like it will drop to my targeted value zone [about 5ish bucks ] in near term.



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