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NUF, NUFARM LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:17 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 20 2019, 11:57 AM

Updated chart.

Notable short alerts reported last 4 trading days. Total short positions as at 20/3/19 = 10.46%
QUOTE
Mon 25th Mar, 2019 2,480,041 379,639,334 0.65% 3,673,463 67.51%
Fri 22nd Mar, 2019 5,157,271 379,639,334 1.35% 7,451,194 69.21%
Thu 21st Mar, 2019 7,833,427 379,639,334 2.06% 12,930,248 60.58%
Wed 20th Mar, 2019 8,517,423 379,639,334 2.24% 19,904,498 42.79%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NUF
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 20 2019, 11:57 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 14 2019, 10:28 PM

Strong 1H result in the Americas offsets challenges in Australia and Europe
QUOTE
Nufarm Limited today announced underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation (EBITDA) of $120.9 million, down 2% on the prior corresponding period, and a
statutory net loss of $13.6 million.


Nufarm Managing Director and CEO, Greg Hunt, said the half year EBITDA result reflected strong
performance in the North American, Latin American and Seed Technology businesses, which
largely offset weaker performance in Australia and Europe.

“We achieved good revenue and earnings growth in North America, Latin America and Seed
Technologies and this reflects the potential we’ve set our business up to achieve. We had a
difficult half in Australia and Europe with dry weather conditions impacting earnings in both
regions, and product availability issues further impacting results in Europe.


“We’re preparing the business to deal with tough conditions in the second half. Farmers on the
east coast of Australia are facing continued dry conditions and we’ll be scaling back manufacturing
and running down inventories in anticipation of another difficult season. This will impact profit in
the second half as we won’t be able to fully recover manufacturing overheads.

“In Europe we’re working through supply issues in the product portfolios we acquired last year. We
are currently supplied by the vendors of the portfolios and product availability has been impacted
by supply disruptions caused by improved Chinese environmental standards
. This has resulted in
lost sales and increased costs and the impact is expected to worsen as demand for product
increases in the second half. Resolving these issues is our top operational priority. We are
expediting the transfer of product registrations so we can exit the transitional supply agreements
with the vendors and bring product sourcing under Nufarm control in time for the autumn selling
season.

“Notwithstanding these transitional issues with supply, our first year of ownership of the new
European portfolio has reinforced that these are products customers want. There is strong
demand and brand loyalty and we are confident we will deliver full value from the acquisitions in
financial year 2020”.

Mr Hunt advised that the company is taking a conservative approach to managing the balance
sheet as it works through the challenges of the next six months. As a result, the interim dividend
has been suspended.

“While we acknowledge the short-term challenges, Nufarm is ultimately about growth and we’re
very positive about what we can deliver in the medium term. We have a quality product base that
is delivering growth and a strong pipeline of new products to be launched in the coming years. The
Omega 3 canola platform is progressing toward commercialisation and every milestone brings us
closer to realising a step-change in the value of our seeds business”.


SP responded accordingly - down 18.35% currently
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 14 2019, 10:28 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 4 2019, 11:08 AM

Nothing fishy in Nufarm's omega-3
Crop protection company Nufarm could be sitting on a $1 billion omega-3 gold mine.
Commercial production of omega-3 canola is expected this year.
QUOTE
Nufarm’s third largest shareholder, Firetrail Investments, believes the omega-3 technology will be worth $1 billion or about half the value of the entire company if the FDA grants approval for human consumption.

The second largest shareholder in Nufarm is Ashok Jacob’s Ellerston Capital, which owns 12.6 per cent of the stock. The largest shareholder is Sumitomo Chemical with 15.9 per cent. Sumitomo’s strategic stake virtually guarantees the Japanese company access to Nufarm’s global crop protection supply chain.


QUOTE
Chatter about a possible Nufarm takeover has gained in volume over the past few weeks partly because about 5 per cent of the issued capital was traded. Chanticleer believes there has been interest in the stock from a Hong Kong based investor with a history of participating in takeovers.

read more - https://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/nothi...20190314-p514an


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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 4 2019, 11:08 AM
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Posts: 5,632
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 4 2019, 06:20 AM

and, FWIW, Deutsche Bank talking NUF up

QUOTE
Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Upgrade to Buy from Hold

After upgrading to Hold in January Deutsche Bank has now upgraded Nufarm to Buy, as the stock is now trading at a -16% discount to valuation.

The broker's valuation does not yet ascribe any value to Omega-3 canola and some delay for the acquired earnings to flow has also been allowed.

Nufarm is now trading at a -23% discount to the 10-year average of the one-year forward relative operating earnings (EBITDA) multiple, and at a -20% discount on a relative PE multiple basis.


SP up 6.97% currently @ $5.37.

Total short positions coming down - as at 25/2/19 = 7.93%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=nuf

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 4 2019, 06:20 AM
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Posts: 5,314
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QUOTE
On Friday, Nufarm’s shares fell 4.6 per cent to their lowest level in four years as it wrestles with the impact from drought conditions and fears surrounding a ban of products containing glyphosate, from which Nufarm earns about a fifth of its revenue.

Compounding problems for Nufarm is Canadian rival Nutrien’s likely acquisition of the listed Australian business Ruralco which some believe could strengthen its presence in Nufarm’s local market.

Nufarm’s market value is now just under $2 billion after being worth more than $3.6bn two years ago and is now on the list of most major buyout funds as a possible takeover target.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/d...01d2e0e4d3851cd

- and Wesfarmers t/o talk bubbling up?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 25 2019, 01:35 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 2 2018, 01:39 PM

Lawsuits continue against Bayer in the US

QUOTE
(Reuters) - Bayer AG is set to face a second U.S. jury over allegations that its popular glyphosate-based weed killer Roundup causes cancer, six months after the company’s share price was rocked by a $289 million verdict in California state court.

A lawsuit by California resident Edwin Hardeman against the company was scheduled to begin on Monday in federal rather than state court. The trial is also a test case for a larger litigation. More than 760 of the 9,300 Roundup cases nationwide are consolidated in the federal court in San Francisco that is hearing Hardeman’s case.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bayer-gl...k-idUSKCN1QD0I8
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=nuf
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 2 2018, 01:39 PM
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NUF AGM on Thursday 6 Dec - "Will provide an update on the impact of drought. Questions about Glyphosate safety too"
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 24 2018, 03:35 PM
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Posts: 5,314
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Things that cause cancer are all around us, if you believe the news — how worried should we be?
QUOTE
The 2015 IARC report on glyphosate concluded that "glyphosate is probably carcinogenic to humans" and placed it in the category Group 2A — along with consuming red meat, drinking very hot beverages, and shift work that disrupts your circadian rhythm.

Glyphosate resurfaced in the news this year when a jury in a US court case declared the weed-killing product Roundup was a factor in causing a man's terminal cancer, and that the company Monsanto (now Bauer) failed to warn of its risks.

Despite the IARC using considered language, stating that there was "limited evidence in humans for the carcinogenicity of glyphosate" and that "a positive association has been observed for non-Hodgkin lymphoma", the looming shadow of a chemical giant can influence how people think about glyphosate and cancer.

Dr Lamberts said when it came to dealing with big corporations like Monsanto, "hardcore tribalism" often kicked in.

"Monsanto is cast as the nasty company that doesn't give a toss about anyone else. Which means that any negative stuff [about glyphosate and cancer] is going to be believed and amplified," he said...
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v...ncer%2F10386298



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 18 2018, 09:55 AM
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Posts: 5,314
Thanks: 1945


Nufarm: Why buy Nufarm?
- Blake Henricks, Firetrail Investments:

QUOTE
Why buy Nufarm? ,..........
......... Industry consolidation and Omega 3.

Nufarm has become undervalued because of the Australian drought and their distribution of a specific weed killer commonly used in crops. The company has had two stumbles, but Mr Henricks believes it presents great value at today's prices. The industry is now more consolidated than the Australian banking market. That means Nufarm can take organic market share as competitors are distracted doing M&A, in short, Nufarm is a beneficiary of industry consolidation.

Nufarm has a technology which earns nothing today but is worth $1 billion according to Firetrail. Humans rely on small fish as a source of Omega 3, growing around 6 per cent per annum. Henricks expects no increase in ocean based supply of Omega 3 because of over-fishing. But it can now be grown from plant-based canola and Nufarm can take 20 per cent market share of that supply gap.

Most of the regulatory approvals have come through, and it is trading on less than seven times EV to EBITDA today because the market has over-reacted to the drought and glyphosate concerns. One of the great strategies is to buy in drought and sell in rain, Mr Henricks said. He strongly believes Nufarm is well placed around all reasonable scenarios related to glyphosate outcomes.

Valuation of $10.40.
... Sohn Hearts and Minds



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 23 2018, 02:14 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2018, 02:57 PM

QUOTE
(Bloomberg) -- Bayer AG failed to persuade a California state judge to set aside a jury’s verdict in the first trial over allegations that its Roundup weed killer causes cancer, but the judge said damages should be slashed to $78.6 million from $289 million.

San Francisco Superior Court Judge Suzanne Ramos Bolanos on Monday rejected Bayer’s arguments that the jury didn’t have any basis to conclude that the herbicide caused a former school groundskeeper’s cancer.

The decision isn’t a legal precedent for thousands of related lawsuits across the U.S., but it will encourage plaintiffs to press forward with their claims. Bayer said it plans to appeal the ruling.

For Bayer, the ruling “is not good news,” said Thomas G. Rohback, a trial lawyer who isn’t involved in the Roundup litigation. “From Bayer’s perspective the bigger concern is it’s saying there was enough science to support the plaintiff’s case.”


read more - https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/bayer-...dict#gs.wB3cJTs
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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