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TPM, TPG TELECOM LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Sep 27 2019, 03:20 PM
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After three extraordinary weeks, the biggest corporate case of the year will come to an end on Tuesday, leaving Justice John Middleton alone to make a momentous call: Should Vodafone Hutchison Australia and TPG Telecom be allowed to merge?

His decision, which probably won't come until the end of the year at the earliest, will have massive implications for Australia's telecoms industry. In a market dominated by two goliaths – Telstra and Optus – a merger would create a powerful third all-encompassing telco with a finger in all the telco pies: mobile, residential fixed line, and the enterprise market.

The alternative is much less certain. Vodafone would remain a mobile-only operator (albeit with a small NBN reselling business), and a distant third in that sector. TPG would remain a fixed line player, with the option of reviving its abandoned mobile network.

And that's the big question. Would TPG revive that network outside a merger? TPG categorically says no. The ACCC says yes, or at least says there is a real chance of it, and its star barrister Michael Hodge QC has put everything into arguing that case...




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 13 2019, 09:20 AM
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Fast and nimble, or fast and loose?

The ACCC enquiry has bought Teoh out into the limelight. He'd prefer running TPG away from it.
QUOTE
Hodge persisted. “You don’t need models to make decisions, even the decision to spend $900 million?”

Teoh said there were time pressures surrounding some spectrum deals, particularly the deal to approach the federal government to buy the 700 megahertz spectrum. It wasn’t possible for the board to wait for a formal business case to be drawn up.

“I have the trust of my board. So that is a very important factor,” Teoh told the court. “The board could see the opportunity as well, in mobile. As I told them, the future is mobile.”

This is a crucial point for the case of the ACCC, which is arguing if the merger between TPG and Vodafone is blocked, TPG will have to go back and build a mobile network just to remain competitive in this market.

Hodge’s point is that Teoh was so desperate to get into mobile that he wasn’t worried about business cases or even detailed financial models.

The ACCC is trying to argue that because Teoh knew back in 2017 – and, by implication, still knows today – that without a mobile network, TPG cannot compete in the Australian telco market.

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/teoh-s-mobi...20190912-p52qla

(Lot of money at stake. Do we end up with just 2 networks, the Telstra gorilla + one other, and see competition slip away?)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: May 9 2019, 10:19 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ May 8 2019, 08:57 PM

QUOTE
...[the ACCC's Rod] Sims says the rejection of the merger means “there is a real chance” TPG will roll out a mobile network. It says it has the mobile spectrum, an extensive fibre network, a large customer base and a well established brand.

Essentially, Sims is using the rejection as a weapon for forcing TPG into a corner. He is punting on the slim possibility that TPG will respond to the margin squeeze in fixed-line broadband markets with the construction of a new mobile network.

The problem with the assumption that TPG’s executive chairman David Teoh will spend billions of dollars building a new network is that it is completely without foundation. The word out of TPG is that Teoh won’t succumb to this ACCC pressure....
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/accc-misrea...20190508-p51lda

- there will be a High Court challenge, in all likelihood.... which should get up!?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
triage
post Posted: May 8 2019, 08:57 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 8 2019, 06:30 PM

Tis a poor tradesman that blames his tools ... also, this decision seems to confirm that Telstra is the only silver-back allowed in this patch of the forest.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: May 8 2019, 06:30 PM
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Australian competition watchdog, the ACCC, has blamed "lousy" computer systems after a botched release of its decision to nix the merger between Vodafone Hutchison Australia and TPG Telecom sent the share prices of the major telecommunications companies tumbling.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission accidentally published a decision to block the planned $15 billion tie-up on Wednesday, a day earlier than expected, and while the companies' shares were still trading.
- my my



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 22 2019, 01:18 PM
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he Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has pushed back its final decision on the $15 billion tie-up between TPG Telecom and Vodafone Hutchison Australia to April, with the competition regulator saying its yet to receive relevant information from the telcos.

The regulator had originally set a provisional decision date of March 28, however, the date has now been tentatively pushed back to April 11. The regulator had sought further submissions from interested parties on the merger by January 18.

According to the ACCC, the timeline has been suspended due to delay in receiving information from merger parties. “The ACCC will confirm the new provisional decision date when the information from the merger parties is received,” it said



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 

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nipper
post Posted: Dec 13 2018, 11:15 AM
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TPG shares plunge 17pc on merger doubt
QUOTE
The Australian Competition and Consumer Competition has warned a merger of TPG and Vodafone could result in a "substantial lessening of competition"...




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 30 2018, 03:17 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 30 2018, 10:12 AM

U dodged a bullet, eb. From sub $6 and trending down, TPM is now above $9 on the merger news
QUOTE
entrepreneur David Teoh has responded brilliantly to the NBN Co's creeping destruction of his cut-price broadband business with a Vodafone merger deal that has already added $700 million to his personal wealth.

He was willing to give up control of the country's most powerful telecommunications challenger in return for the opportunity to stop the erosion of his wealth and get a bigger share of Australia's $60 billion telco pie.

Teoh was never in danger of going broke because of the NBN. But his core strategy of offering aggressively priced broadband plans with 50 per cent profit margins was slowly dying...

https://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/tpg-m...20180829-h14pnh



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 30 2018, 10:12 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 29 2018, 05:33 PM

thanks nipper

i got out of shorts in time. lucky me rolleyes.gif

watch it for while, and will take short side again when things settle a little bit.



 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 29 2018, 05:33 PM
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TPG would buy Vodafone Australia in return for a big pile of new shares, and the combined entity would trade on the Australian Securities Exchange.

The proposed deal would be done without raising fresh equity or selling assets.

And to work, it is understood the companies want to be about the same size on entry to help create a true merger of equals and some debt would need to vanish. Quickly.

As is stands, TPG is worth $8.6 billion on an enterprise value basis - thanks to a recent run in its share price which may have to be overlooked - while Vodafone is worth $7.4 billion on JPMorgan's numbers.

Vodafone's problem is its giant debt stack worth $8.4 billion and mostly payable to its two big shareholders; British giant Vodafone Group and Hong Kong's CK Hutchison, part of the Cheung Kong group of companies controlled by Li Ka-Shing.

Vodafone's two shareholders would absolve a big chunk of that debt as part of the deal being discussed.

The two companies' respective shareholders would be expected to split the new company 50/50.

The new TPG's two biggest shareholders would be Vodafone Group and CK Hutchison, followed by TPG stalwarts David Teoh, the company founder, and his long-time backer, the Millner family's Soul Patts.

The free float is expected to account for only about 20 per cent of the combined group - which would still be about $2 billion or so of shares available to trade.
it may work?!



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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