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FMG, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD
nipper
post Posted: May 19 2020, 03:04 PM
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I have the solution; why doesn't Forrest buy it?
QUOTE
WA is the state hardest hit by China’s decision to impose a tariff on Australia malting barley, with almost 90 per cent of the barley exported to China grown in the state.

Ms MacTiernan said tensions between Australia and China over the proposed inquiry into the origins of coronavirus had influenced the outcome.

”While we have every confidence that Australian barley is neither being dumped nor subsidised, this final outcome is not surprising, given the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s conditional ruling less than two weeks ago,” she said.

“It would appear Western Australian barley growers have been caught up in a much larger issue.”

The 80 per cent tariff is expected to all but end the shipment of Australian malting barley to China. Farmers are expected to instead sell the product as lower-value feed for cattle and plant other crops instead.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 14 2020, 11:19 AM
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Someone's optimistic
QUOTE
“The Chinese government has reaffirmed recently their growth targets and one of the levers at their disposal to achieve those targets is to stimulate the economy through infrastructure investment. And that infrastructure investment tends to be steel-intensive... which means strong demand for steel and strong demand for iron ore”

Elizabeth Gaines, CEO, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

China also going in big on 5G.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 11 2019, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE
Shares in Fortescue have nearly trebled this year, surging from $3.86 to a record $10.45 during trade on Wednesday as prices for iron ore gallop past $US93 per tonne.

Prices lifted earlier in the year as mine closures in Brazil and Cyclone Veronica closing ports in Western Australia. But the rally is being sustained as global economic conditions lift and speculation mounts in China over increased stimulus measures and greater infrastructure spending.

The rally has lifted Rio Tinto 9¢ to $98.80, it's highest level since mid-August. BHP gave up earlier gains to slip 0.4 per cent to $38.29. Fortescue shares are up 150 per cent this year while BHP is up 12 per cent.

In a note to clients, Macquarie analysts said the strength in iron ore spot prices was in line with its forecasts and as a result there "was no material earnings upgrade potential".

But it said there was significant upside earnings potential for Fortescue in fiscal 2021 of about 70 per cent and between 20 per cent and 30 per cent for BHP and Rio respectively.

"We retain our positive view on FMG with the stock boasting strong medium-term earnings upgrade potential under a spot price scenario," Macquarie told clients. "The gap between RIO and BHP has narrowed with RIO retaining slightly higher free cash flow yields at spot of 9-10 per cent vs 8-9 per cent for BHP. The further recovery in premium iron-ore prices should benefit both Champion Iron and Mount Gibson Iron."

Swelling cash flows for Fortescue have delivered a dividend bounty in recent years...




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 2 2019, 07:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 28 2019, 11:23 AM

FMG breaks through the $10 mark for the first time since May 2008

Iron ore -0.7% to $US87.46 a tonne so what is the reason for FMG's rising SP? According to Citibank

QUOTE
Citibank itself cited the widening disparity between iron ore prices and FMG’s share price action as a potential problem for the pure-play miner. Peaking iron ore prices and peak Chinese steel output potentially further compounds this issue.

FMG’s potential dividend is the final piece of this bearish puzzle, says Citibank. With the investment bank noting that a large dividend payment around the US$0.96 per share mark in FY20 – equating to a dividend yield of 14.8% – could result in a significant ex-dividend share price reversal.

In saying that, Citibank expects this yield to moderate significantly in FY21 and FY22 – as potentially weaker iron ore prices lead to weaker top and bottom-line figures.

For reference, FMG paid a total of $1.14 per share in dividends during FY19.

In line with all this, Citibank currently has a neutral rating and a bearish share price target of $8.50 on FMG.

https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/...e-highs--191127

Total short positions as at 26th November, 2019 = 4.92%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=fmg

Fortescue Metals Group stock rally sends Andrew Forrest’s stake beyond $10b
https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/fort...-ng-b881399260z
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 28 2019, 11:23 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 26 2019, 09:45 AM

QUOTE
Must be time for a breather?


Morgan Stanley seems to think so also

QUOTE
Morgan Stanley anticipates big falls for Fortescue
Shares in high flying iron ore miner Fortescue Metals are likely to experience some turbulence over the next two months, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

“We believe the share price will fall in absolute terms over the next 60 days,” the investment bank told clients.

“This is because the stock has traded up recently, making short term valuation much less compelling. While iron ore is now trading in line with our forecasts, we expect the price to fall next year. At spot, FMG is currently pricing in an iron ore price of around $US85 a tonne, around 40 per cent higher than our long-term price estimate of $US60 a tonne.”

Morgan Stanley estimates there’s a 60 to 70 per cent chance of its call being correct, odds it describes as “likely”.

FMG shares closed at $9.79 on Wednesday.


Iron ore -1.9% to $US87.56 a tonne
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
bg99
post Posted: Nov 26 2019, 09:57 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 26 2019, 09:45 AM

the price of iron ore doesn't look extended..... it could rally off a recent support level here
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Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 26 2019, 09:45 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 15 2019, 03:27 PM

IO price continuing to rise - Iron ore +3.2% to $US90.92 a tonne - FMG's SP following - currently $9.80/share 52 week high. Must be time for a breather?

Total short sales @ 19th November, 2019 = 4.79%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=fmg
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 15 2019, 03:27 PM
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Posts: 6,791
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 6 2019, 01:59 PM

Iron ore +2.9% to $US83.42 a tonne overnight. May have caught some shorts by surprise. SP ended up 3.78% @ $9.06/share
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=fmg
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: boylep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 6 2019, 01:59 PM
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Notable short alert yesterday. Total short positions as at 31/10/19 = 5.11%.

QUOTE
Tue 5th Nov, 2019 24,461,856 3,078,964,918 0.79% 77.02%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=fmg

UBS bearish on Fortescue - Perhaps UBS have borrowed that 24 m?

QUOTE
UBS analysts are clearly not among the vast array of optimists. They retain a sell rating on the stock with a 12-month price target of $7.50, representing a 20 per cent discount to its current trading level.

“FMG's share price remains around 12-month highs despite a 33 per cent decline in the [benchmark spot] iron ore price from $US126 per tonne in early July to $US85 per tonne today. “This compares to BHP and RIO share prices which are down 12 per cent and 11 per cent respectively [over the same period].

While UBS can see why Fortescue shares have outperformed the larger diversified miners recently, it expects iron ore prices will fall further in the period ahead, leaving Fortescue’s earnings multiples and free cash flow (FCF) yield stretched compared to its rivals.


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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 19 2019, 11:28 AM
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Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group loses appeal against Pilbara native title claim
By Andrea Mayes and Rebecca Parish
Updated about 11 hours ago
QUOTE
Mining magnate Andrew Forrest faces a compensation fight after losing an appeal against a WA native title ruling over a huge tract of ore-rich Pilbara land.

Key points:
The Yinjibarndi people were granted native title to 2,700 square kilometres of Pilbara land
FMG says it may appeal to the High Court after its failed Federal Court challenge
But the Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corporation has labelled the ruling a "fantastic result"

The land in question includes the multi-billion dollar Solomon Hub iron ore mine belonging to Mr Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group (FMG).

Two years ago the Federal Court granted native title to 2,700 square kilometres of land north of Karijini National Park to the Yinjibarndi people.

FMG appealed the decision to grant exclusive native title to the group, citing concern about the higher standard of engagement with traditional owner groups required.

But the Federal Court rejected the appeal on all grounds — prompting FMG to flag a possible appeal to the High Court.

"We are considering our next steps which may include an appeal to the High Court," FMG chief executive Elizabeth Gaines said in a statement.

FMG 'misunderstood' native title rights
FMG's mines sit on Yindjibarndi land, officially represented by the Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corporation (YAC).

But an ongoing dispute over compensation has led to a bitter falling out between the mining company and leaders of the group.

Part of FMG's appeal centred on disputing the court's native title determination "concerning the meaning and significance of the Yindjibarndi's activities on country," according to the appeal judgement.

"Implicit in these comments is the notion that the exercise of traditional rights over country is in some way a less legitimate form of occupancy than that seen in the context of Anglo-Australian relationships to real property," Justices Robertson and Griffiths wrote in their rejection of the appeal.

The judges found that such a position "is to misunderstand the concept of native title rights and interests to require them to fit into non-Aboriginal concepts of property, the exercise of proprietary rights and the enforcement of property rights".

"That is why what occurs is recognition of native title; not conferral, and not transformation into non-Aboriginal property rights," they wrote.

The compensation fight begins
YAC chief executive Michael Woodley described the decision as a "fantastic result" but said the group would still have to fight for compensation from FMG.

"Everyone had mixed emotions, mainly having tears in their eyes," he told the ABC after receiving the news.

"[But] we are continuing to have to fight for our rights.

Mr Woodley said he did not know how much compensation the group would be seeking.

"That's not the reason we do this obviously, it's more protecting our rights," he said.

But FMG downplayed the possibility of a substantial compensation payout.

"The matter of compensation is an entirely separate matter and our legal advice is consistent with our previous view that there is no material financial impact to Fortescue following today's decision," Ms Gaines said.

"Our mining tenure rights and current operations are also unaffected."

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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