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POS, POSEIDON NICKEL LIMITED
bg99
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 09:02 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 2 2019, 08:05 PM

todays candle suggests a few think its at least a maybe thingy again .... will be interesting to see what happens with Ni price from here

 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 2 2019, 08:05 PM
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here we go again ?
QUOTE
Andrew Forrest-backed Poseidon Nickel is in the frame to accelerate mine re-opening plans in Western Australia as prices surge to their highest levels in years. The company is looking to bring the mothballed Black Swan operations, which include the high-grade Silver Swan mine, back into production 50 years on this month from the Poseidon nickel boom. There was speculation a restart, currently on track for some time in the next eight months, could be bought forward after nickel prices reached a five-year high on Monday.

The spike in the London benchmark three-month price to $18,470 a tonne came with a cloud hanging over supplies out of Indonesia and the future of the Chinese-owned Ramu nickel plant in Papua New Guinea after a big waste spill. ASX-listed nickel stocks rose sharply on Monday, with Western Areas Limited up more than 15 per cent to $2.86, Independence Group up almost 9 per cent to $5.92, Poseidon up 13 per cent to 4.3¢ and junior explorer St George Mining up almost 18 per cent to 16.5¢ after announcing a new nickel sulphide discovery at its flagship Mt Alexander project.

Indonesia has flagged banning nickel exports from December, raising concerns about a supply deficit. Indonesia's Energy and Mineral resources Minister Ignasius Jonan announced the island nation would bring forward a ban on exporting ore by two years in a move that would cut supply to China's nickel pig iron ore. The ban is consistent with Indonesia's push to force nickel miners there into downstream processing and could result in significant reduction in global supply in the medium term.

Independence managing director Peter Bradford said the current nickel price dynamic had been building for some time, with demand outstripping supply over the last three years. Mr Bradford said this had led to a drawdown in inventory to levels where any supply surprise could lead to immediate and sharp price movement. "Going forward there is the risk of increased tightness with continued demand for nickel into stainless steel and increasing demand for nickel into electric vehicle batteries," he said. "Under-exploration and under-development in new nickel production, largely as a result of sustained low prices over the last few years, means that supply-side response will be slow." Mr Bradford said higher prices were needed to encourage exploration and new development. He predicted nickel supply from Indonesia would grow over time and that was a positive for the industry overall.

Shaw & Partners analyst Peter O'Connor said he didn't expect any shutdown of the Ramu operations to cause a multi-quarter supply disruption. However, he said the situation in Indonesia had the potential to cause a significant squeeze in supply in the short to medium term. Mr O'Connor said another key factor for nickel stocks was emerging demand from battery makers looking to secure supply from WA's nickel sulphide producers.

Both Western Areas and Independence appear likely to receive higher premiums for their nickel concentrate as they negotiate fresh off-take agreements. Mr O'Connor said sustained strength in the nickel price would encourage Poseidon and others with mothballed assets to return to production as had been the case when the iron ore price spiked at the start of 2019.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/nickel...20190902-p52n5q



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 4 2018, 12:53 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 3 2018, 08:49 PM

QUOTE
Posted Yesterday, 08:49 PM UBS became a subholder - the last two transactions borrowing 42.6m shares with a view to shorting I presume


This morning the SP is down 6.78% @ 5.5c
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 4 2018, 12:47 PM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Oct 4 2018, 09:26 AM

QUOTE
They should expand the Royal Commissions to securities trading.


Completely agree, and not just looking into shorting activities - the big shorters largely appear to be the big insto's and/or clients of theirs. There was a senate enquiry a few years back that looked into trading activities of a number of companies - a couple of extracts below - well worth reading the whole article as it gives graphical examples of the activities

I also posted this recently - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/goldman-jpm...trust-case.html.


SENATE ENQUIRY
QUOTE
Re: The performance of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC)
Supporting Information – Attachment 1.2
1.2 AN OVERVIEW OF ASX TRADING AND ITS REGULATION
1.2 BACKGROUND INFORMATION – GENERAL COMMENTS ABOUT TRADING ISSUES AND REGULATION

The questionable trading behaviours concerning CuDeco have emerged from analysis of long term
empirical trading and registry data. The only plausible explanations to address anomalous data issues are
those that refer to wide scale collusion and share price manipulation issues.

Anomalous data trends mainly relate to the activities of a small group of institutional brokers. The
identities of their clients are unclear as they are likely to reside within Nominee Entity accounts sitting
within Institutional omnibus accounts that are managed by the large investment banks. The system
provides layers of camouflage that enables the activities of sophisticated to be opaque to the market. It
makes official claims regarding fair and transparent markets grossly misleading <Refer: For dark pools, just
wade into the ASX>

The trading activities by either sophisticated investors (e.g., hedge funds) or fund managers on behalf of
accounts held by institutions, have unquestionably led to unfair dominance and control over pricing levels.
The practice of institutional brokers being used on a rotating basis to buy and sell for major clients has
further camouflaged their dominance over trading. Occasionally the services of other brokers, who have
reduced trading profiles for most of the time, are utilized whereby they step in and play a prominent role
for the same institutional interests.

Importantly, the activity of institutional brokers appears to represent the same substantial interests, as the
register shows institutional holdings being retained at reasonably static levels despite all of the trading
churn taking place (i.e., large volumes sold then re-purchased which necessarily requires high levels of cooperation).
The combined efforts of brokers, acting for much the same interests, have resulted in a
compromised and dysfunctional market regarding CuDeco. Research has also shown that similarities
regarding dubious trading patterns are also evident in the trading in other companies across the ASX.
The situation translates to cartel-like activity and is facilitated by the use of insidious algorithms that are
integrally connected to high frequency trading. Research has shown that high frequency algorithms have
the capacity of being able to choose who they deal with and can therefore connect designated sellers to
preferred buyers with transactions designed to achieve particular pricing outcomes. The situation
effectively translates to share price manipulation that is given safe passage on the ASX as the systems have
regulatory approval.

The complexity of algorithmic design and how they actually deliver a competitive advantage to those that
use them is beyond the comprehension of most market participants. Certainly the world’s most powerful
investment banks have poured enormous resources into recruiting and supporting some of the sharpest
mathematical/statistical minds in the world, to develop and fine-tune their proprietary algorithms,
Refinement s are continually taking place and new programs are appearing constantly. Crucially, by their
very design they represent a manipulative influence in the market that advantages one group of investors
(sophisticated investors) over another (retail investors) and enables companies to be unfairly targeted
resulting in severe undervaluations. The manipulation that occurs with algorithms is referred to in the
internet article High-Frequency Trading: A Market Destroying Scam.

There is no doubt that large volumes of high frequency algorithmic transactions have been instrumental in
setting and maintaining artificial prices not only in relation to CuDeco, but in all stocks where they are
utilized. A common practice borne out by CuDeco research, is for large volumes of small parcels of shares
to be sold in a manner that deliberately forces lower prices (i.e., Downticks in price) but where the majority
of the transactions are picked up by ‘affiliated’ brokers running algorithms that are tuned to seek out and
accept the trades. Such trades generally involve no change to beneficial ownership of shares, as the selling
and buying algorithms of brokers are acting in tandem for the same interest or interests ‘loosely’ affiliated
and sharing trading agendas. Large numbers of small algorithmic crossings, deliberately putting trades
through the market at lower prices, provide another mechanism for share prices to be worked lower.

Daily trading in stocks across the entire ASX is saturated with such spurious activity. The same approach
can also be used to force upward movements in price and to cap share prices, and it can be used to
manufacture volatility with large volumes of stock passing back and forth through the algorithmic
interactions of related interests. Again, there is no effective change to beneficial ownership as institutional
holdings have remained relatively unchanged from one month to the next.

Algorithms have a propensity to disguise and confuse trading in such a way that it is difficult to monitor
what is exactly taking place. Certainly, all such trades viewed on a tick-by-tick basis appear innocuous. But
the reality is that all trades are designed to deliver a strategic advantage, even the plethora of small trades
for one or more shares that make no sense to retail investors. A major function of trading algorithms
appears to be to disguise trading agendas by recycling shares through the market and controlling price
movements. Often a large seller or sellers are able to offload large parcels of shares that get recycled
through the market by algorithms buying then selling, or selling then buying, over and over, until the
shares eventually end up with a major buyer or buyers. Yet at the end of the day often there are only
minor changes to beneficial ownership as the large seller(s) and the large buyer(s) are related to the same
shareholder group.

A large amount of trading has the hallmarks of manipulation with trading representing a zero-sum game.
Some institutional brokers have trades that net out as losses while others have trades that net out as
profits but as the trades are essentially for the one group, (i.e. the register remains relatively static), buying
and selling tends to average out. The trading doesn’t necessarily generate profits, so that must not be the
motivation behind the copious buying and selling, and as such, it must be regarded as non-genuine and
servicing manipulative agendas.

While the design elements of algorithms are not properly understood, their impact over trading is readily
noticeable through the anomalous data trends that result from their use.


QUOTE
The issue of unscrupulous short selling activity was flagged by financial journalist Adele Ferguson as far
back as February 2008 <Link: Traders plunder super>. The recipients of short selling gains were hedge
funds and their gains were at the expense of Australian superannuation holdings. The following excerpts
are extremely revealing in regard to the ASX’s self-regulation expertise back in 2008.

Part extract
THE Australian Securities Exchange is demanding a review of stock trading rules amid evidence that
hedge funds are "borrowing" shares from superannuation funds to force down prices, a practice that is
mauling retirement savings. Traders, such as hedge funds that exist to exploit market anomalies and
volatility, have been borrowing large parcels of stock, mainly from superannuation funds.

Australia's $1.1 trillion superannuation industry warehouses its shares with "custodian" companies,
which often offer a discount for the service if the fund allows the stock to be lent to third parties.
Borrowed shares can be used to take long or short positions - betting shares will rise or fall - or to
manipulate voting at companies' annual meetings. The transactions are exempt from capital gains tax.
Other countries allow stock lending but do not have the same tax exemptions available in Australia.
David Bryant, group executive of investments at Australian Unity, which has $6.4 billion in funds under
management, likened the practice to leaving a car in a car park, which lends it to local hooligans who
return it damaged. The owner is left with the mess.

ASX chief Rob Elstone said yesterday short selling was not the issue, but the related stock lending
activity. "It lacks transparency and, depending upon how many links there are in the stock-lending
chain, it has the potential to raise systematic risk issues

ASIC took over regulatory duties from ASX in August 2010 but apparently did nothing to address the issues
raised by Adele Ferguson back in 2008 and referred to by the ASX itself in its role as self-regulator. In
February 2012 it was reported in The Australian newspaper that< Short sellers rang up $72bn profit over
18 months > in respect to the period June 2010 to January 2012, which, with the exception of June and
July 2010, coincided with ASIC taking over as regulator. An excerpt from the article follows.

SHORT sellers made a combined $72 billion in profits in the 18 months to last month, as the number of
stocks sold short increased. In their second study into the implications of short interest on stocks, Royal
Bank of Scotland analysts yesterday confirmed that increased short-selling leads to medium-term
underperformance from the stock. The study also shows the massive profits that can be made, or alpha
fund managers can generate, by shorting successfully.


The plundering of Australian super funds as per the article has been referred to ASIC by at least one
complainant with a response to the effect that they didn’t believe the figures were correct. Nothing further
was done about it. If anything, the figures probably understated the situation and even if RBS was only half
correct, it represents an enormous amount of wealth stripped from the accounts of pension fund holders.
Unfortunately the rorts have never been addressed and continue to this day




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: bg99  
 
bg99
post Posted: Oct 4 2018, 09:26 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 3 2018, 08:49 PM

They should expand the Royal Commissions to securities trading. This shorting racket has turned the markets into a casino and ASIC is a toothless tiger.... their replies just say.... we will look into this but will not disclose any information to you as this would disrupt an orderly market. So no one ever knows if they have done anything !
There should be trading constraints put on these shorters..... ie if you buy more than 5% of a companies stock in 6 months you must hold 50% of that volume for 12 months minimum.



Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 3 2018, 08:49 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 3 2018, 02:49 PM

BMM no longer looking at a control transaction - good news, IMHO

QUOTE
BLACK MOUNTAIN METALS PTY LTD PROPOSAL
Poseidon Nickel Limited (ASX: POS) refers to the announcement made to ASX on 22 August 2018 and
wishes to advise that the due diligence process being conducted by its largest shareholder, Black
Mountain Metals Pty Ltd (BMM) has concluded.

BMM has further advised that it has no current intention to continue with discussions with POS regarding
a control transaction proposal
.


UBS became a subholder - the last two transactions borrowing 42.6m shares with a view to shorting I presume - not such good news, IMHO

QUOTE
Date of change Person whose relevant interest changed Nature of Change Consideration given in relation to change
Number of securities Class
19-Jul-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Buy 60,970 1,398,389 Ordinary
20-Jul-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Buy 23,894 546,770 Ordinary
23-Jul-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Buy 25,826 588,284 Ordinary
24-Jul-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Buy 7,673 180,960 Ordinary
07-Aug-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Sell 24,240 (577,132) Ordinary
08-Aug-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Sell 44,428 (1,096,979) Ordinary
09-Aug-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Sell 15,984 (399,595) Ordinary
13-Aug-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Sell 25,115 (640,697) Ordinary
28-Aug-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Sell 3,430 (70,000) Ordinary
30-Aug-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Sell 20,400 (400,000) Ordinary
19-Sep-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Buy 4,592,637 91,852,734 Ordinary
26-Sep-18 UBS Securities Australia Ltd Buy 550,000 10,000,000 Ordinary
26-Sep-18 UBS AG London Branch Stock received N/A 2,626,453 Ordinary
1-Oct-18 UBS AG London Branch Stock received N/A 40,000,000 Ordinary




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 3 2018, 02:49 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 27 2018, 10:14 PM

Updated chart - SP currently 5.8c, up 5.45%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=pos

A couple of recent Board changes, with Twiggy Forrest/Squadron Resources Pty Ltd nominee Felicity Gooding and Black Mountain Metal Pty Ltd nominee Karl Paganin joining
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 27 2018, 10:14 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 26 2018, 09:59 PM

Credit Suisse has emerged as a substantial holder with 6.71% - 176,950,668 shares. Two large transactions standout apart from various other smaller buys and sells

1. Purchase of 115,413,036 shares on 20 September 2018
2. Borrow of 62,303,000 shares on the 24 September 2018 - having a bet each way, hoping to get shares cheaper? smile.gif

SP ended the day down 7.27% @ 5.1c
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=pos

Twiggy Forest wanted to "boost" his POS stake recently

QUOTE
The corporate watchdog has taken the highly unusual step of referring a capital raising to the Takeover Panel in a move that threatens to derail Andrew Forrest's plan to boost his stake in Poseidon Nickel.

The Australian Securities and Investment Commission is concerned Poseidon Nickel's $69 million capital raising could unfairly give control to Mr Forrest's Squadron Resources.

https://www.afr.com/business/corporate-watc...20180913-h15bv4

CS accumulated shares in AGO obo Twiggy earlier this year - could CS being doing the same with POS? I guess they can't stop him buying on market No doubt we'll find out in due course

Twiggy's Squadron Resources Pty Ltd (together with other family companies) held 18.01% (based on 1,250,391,850 Shares in the issued capital of Poseidon) as at 28/08/2018

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 26 2018, 09:59 PM
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Two large block trades appeared after market close @ 5.5c on CHI-X

QUOTE
1 16 4:39:37 pm 5.5 10,000,000 $550,000 Block Trade
2 15 4:39:27 pm 5.5 10,000,000 $550,000 Block Trade


Today's ann

26 September 2018
QUOTE
DRILLING RECOMMENCED AT ABI ROSE NICKEL DEPOSIT
Highlights
• Mitchells Drilling has recommenced diamond core drilling at Abi Rose
• Following the success of previous drilling an initial 3 diamond holes for 1,500m contracted with an additional 3 holes for 1,800m planned as immediate follow up if successful
• Newexco Services has been contracted to assist Poseidon with rig management as well as geological and geophysical support
• Significant intersections from previous drilling included;
- PLJD0001; 0.19m high grade zone of remobilised nickel sulphide grading 10.20% Ni
- PLJD0002; 10.48m wide zone of nickel mineralisation grading 3.20% Ni,containing 5.72m at 4.66% Ni and 1.29m @ 10.22% Ni
- PLJD0003; 1.13m zone of massive nickel sulphide mineralisation grading 3.35% Ni, including 0.26m at 8.67% Ni
• Lake Johnston was host to the Emily Ann Mine which averaged a resource grade of 4.1% nickel and produced 46,000 tonnes nickel


From Macquarie - their thoughts on nickel
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: balance  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 20 2018, 10:08 PM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Aug 17 2018, 07:22 PM

Went into a TH today pending an announcement re material fund raising;

The US suitor not happy - Black Mountain Metals vows to axe takeover bid if Poseidon Nickel raises cash

QUOTE
"As a result of this morning’s trading halt announcement by Poseidon, we intend to terminate our proposal regarding the acquisition of 100 per cent of Poseidon shares at an attractive premium,” BMM chief executive Rhett Bennett said.

However, the Texan firm said it could decide to proceed with a transaction in the same or different form in the future.

“As beneficial owner of the second-largest shareholding in Poseidon, BMM does not support management’s decision to pursue an unnecessarily dilutive placement when a compelling proposal and an interest-free loan are available to Poseidon,” Mr Bennet said.

https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/blac...h-ng-b88933925z



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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