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Tylergold
Posted on: Jul 12 2011, 04:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Alot swear words...than insane (at least we all agree on something)

Aus contributes 1.4% of world human carbon emissions

World only contributes 3% of carbon emissions


Australias impact is .00042 (.014*.03)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jul 12 2011, 04:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Operating cashflow can deviate from profits due to profit being accrual, just check oveer long term to see if they eventually match up. e.g. property development business usually exacerbates this.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 25 2011, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

do they have any competitive advantages
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 25 2011, 02:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Why would i do an off market deal with you idiots when i can buy it for below its value on market at 70c
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 25 2011, 02:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

besides the fact ive made money on it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 15 2011, 06:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

your not looking that smart are you know,

o no wait, your good at predicting the past, you'll come up with some mumbo jumbo.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 12 2011, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

im not sure what this has to do with anything, i dont really look at there reports. sometimes id o only for qualitative purposes
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 10 2011, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Just a quick question,



Has anyone invested on the indian stock exchange NSE?
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 10 2011, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

you dont know anything. this company is worth more than it is selling for.

+ here is a good over view (for people who invest & not gamble)
http://www2.aspecthuntley.com.au/pdf/aspec...oday/ccv_cp.pdf
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 9 2011, 11:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Clearly the share price has risen over the past, at 44% compounded per year for the last 10 years to be exact which is about 3800%.

Nothing has changed with the business since it was 90c, its called short term market speculation (which you are involved in i.e. gambling).

maintain it is worth around 1.20 - 1.30


check the shares in one or two years time & we will see.



think about it,it is a company with profits of approx $27mil growing at 15% for the next 3-4 years (estimates)

yet it sells for 240mil.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 9 2011, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

we might be getting into buy territory
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jun 9 2011, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

the list i just gave had alot fo his winners, just abou this formula its not really his its J. Walter's & i dont neccesarily agree with it.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: May 15 2011, 04:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i maintain that CCV is worth 1.20 to 1.50
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 28 2011, 09:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

QUOTE
TG, I reckon you shouldn't enter a trade because of what anyone of "us guys" thinks. By all means, read our opinions, but make a decision only after you have studied the company's "DNA" and are 100% convinced ot ticks all boxes of YOUR Trading Pl


I meant that if you think it has a bright future, YOU guys should buy it.

Not me as i said i havent had time to look into it...
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 28 2011, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

not a great company low rates of return, capital intensive. i'd keep away better opportunites elsewhere
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 20 2011, 10:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

if anyone of you guys think ERA has a bright future, i would seriously buy it, however i havent really looked into it as yet, i will try soon.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 15 2011, 09:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Does anyone have negative views on this business? fundamentlaly

  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 14 2011, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

The Vix has nothing to do with value
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 14 2011, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Operating cashflow expected at 70 mil FY11
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 11 2011, 11:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-10/b...-inflation.html

should help you out. Basically, Stocks are more attractive than bonds yet the bond prices have kept rising, which could easily be a bubble.
QUOTE
But with market volatility and low interest rates, bonds offer certain stability for investors
, interest rates are not going to be low forever, or just look at your return if you bought KO. As well as this stability has nothing to do with intrisic value.

I dont really deal with US bonds or that stuff but:

QUOTE
Can you please explain to me what in your mind is "intrinsic value" when it comes to the U.S bond market? on top of that are you referring to treasury bonds, muni bonds or what?


Probally the low yield compared to a discount rate, the long term bond rates (about 8%) + relative value to the stock market.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 11 2011, 11:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Bonds / gold
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 8 2011, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

To rule303:


I sad to hear you cannot grasp the concept of investing, (TA's are involved in trading i do not want to speak with you idiots).
You may think there is such things as growth investing and all the other names but in the end growth creates value & it all leads back to value investing.

To everyone:

I have not come here to pick fights, or get advice from idiots like Harry etc. I have come here to find ideas --> new companies & interesting factual articles.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 8 2011, 03:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Harry, if you think you are good (you said you "succeeded") post your return on capital employed, as i said you can do it through the unit method, i hope you work it out.
Market is made out of a lot of silly people like you so it wont
QUOTE
market will eat you up and spit you out in little pieces


QUOTE
I mainly trade the SPI, SPX and FX

if you're smart you'd see that equities are the easier way to get rich without going broke, haha you need leverage!! (good luck)



Smart people have no need for leverage, stupid people SHOULD DEFINITELY not be using it.

"Leverage is the only way a smart guy can go broke … You do smart things, you eventually get very rich. If you do smart things and use leverage and you do one wrong thing along the way, it could wipe you out, because anything times zero is zero. But it's reinforcing when the people around you are doing it successfully, you're doing it successfully, and it's a lot like Cinderella at the ball. The guys look better all the time, the music sounds better, it's more and more fun, you think, 'Why the hell should I leave at a quarter to 12? I'll leave at two minutes to 12.' But the trouble is, there are no clocks on the wall. And everybody thinks they're going to leave at two minutes to 12."

QUOTE
Comparing your self to Warren Buffett


I use him and other investors e.g. graham,lynch etc as sources of learning.


PS. i dont really care about the money, i have no use for it, i do this for enjoyment of beating everyone.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 11:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Ok flower, let see if we can see an opportunity here. we need to be able to comfortably normalize earnings , we need to see if the earnings are predictable otherwise it may not be possible to value.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 11:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

QUOTE
What happens next will be acted on as applicaple (buy/sell). There seems to be something fundamentally missing from your thinking mate..(bit like TG)..


Harry, would you mind posting annualized results on the amount of capital you have employed, may be hard to do with your speculative mind, but you have to use the unit method (if you know what that is).

So far this fiscal year ive had my entire portfolio in ANZ, TFC since .87, CCV
So i bought CCV earlier last year at approx .55c valuing it around 1.20-1.50. it dropped to .50 or so, so you would have sold it according to TA, then it rose to .63c bought a few more. Rose to .72 & declined rapidly to .53 or something, told my grandpa to buy some (which he did tens of thousands of dollars) and since risen to .74 & will continue + received a few dividends.

Made about 15% of ANZ dont expect too much valued around 28-34.

Harry your dillusioned. im sorry.

there isonly one type of Fundemental investing & thats value investing. TA people please do not comment here neither you or i will convince each other, but i have history on my side.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 11:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Hughes made a massive amount of runs last season domestically + in RSA (2 centuries in a match)
I certainly have faith in him even with his form dip, he has shown an improving technique.

Sort of agree with Watson however he just cant ball that many overs or he will get an injury.

D.Hussey i did list him but only short term, hes getting on a bit now,

Sorry i have one major disagreement with your team and that is A.mcdonanld, zero penetration & only a handy batter.

My Remade Squad (12 + In the mix)

Hughes
Watson/Marsh
Khwaja
Ponting
Clarke
M. Hussey
Paine / Haddin (Either, both good, paine is the future tho)
Siddle
Starc
Hazlewood
Beer
C. Ferguson

In The Mix:

Pattinson
Hauritz
Krezja (Bigger turner)
Copeland
Swan (Bit old now)
Maddinson
Bollinger (Not a great player but decent, give starc/hazlewood/copeland a go before)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

LOL,

QUOTE
Lets face it the market is always right, (market being the majority),


so wait, do most people smash the market indexes? i think not!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 08:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

With out knowing much about CVN, i can tell Harry is an absolute idiot. I have great comfort in posting this quote knowing that the market is made up with many fools such as Harry.

QUOTE
imagine you are partners in a private business with a man named Mr. Market. Each day, he comes to your office or home and offers to buy your interest in the company or sell you his [the choice is yours]. The catch is, Mr. Market is an emotional wreck. At times, he suffers from excessive highs and at others, suicidal lows. When he is on one of his manic highs, his offering price for the business is high as well, because everything in his world at the time is cheery. His outlook for the company is wonderful, so he is only willing to sell you his stake in the company at a premium. At other times, his mood goes south and all he sees is a dismal future for the company. In fact, he is so concerned, he is willing to sell you his part of the company for far less than it is worth. All the while, the underlying value of the company may not have changed - just Mr. Market's mood.

The best part of this entire arrangement: you are free to ignore him if you don't like his price. The next day, he'll show up at your door with a new one. For your interest, the more manic-depressive he is, the more opportunity you will have to take advantage of him [don't worry, he doesn't have feelings or mind being taken advantage of.] As long as you have a strong conviction of what the company is really worth, you will be able to look at Mr. Market's offers and reject or accept them... the choice is yours.

This is exactly how the intelligent investor should look at the stock market - each security that is traded is merely a part of a business. Each morning, when you open up the newspaper or turn on CNBC, you can find Mr. Market's prices. It is your choice whether or not to act on them and buy or sell. If you find a company that he is offering for less than it is worth, take advantage of him and load up on it. Surely enough, as long as the company is fundamentally sound, one day he will come back under the sway of a manic high and offer to buy the same company from you for a much higher price. By thinking of stock prices in this way - as mere quotes from an emotionally unstable business partner - you are free from the emotional attachment most investors feel toward rising and falling stock prices. Before long, when you are looking to buy stock you will welcome falling prices. The only time you want to invite high stock prices is when you are eager to sell your securities for some reason. Thankfully, in most cases [except those caused by "Life" which we discussed earlier], you are free to wait out Mr. Market's emotional roller coaster until he offers a price that you consider equal to or higher than intrinsic value. This is perhaps your greatest advantage in your investments.


CVn looks like a decent company with high ROE IF! the analyst forecasts are correct. Perhpas some homework to do, ill report back soon,hopefully.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 07:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

We seriously have a good team, just didnt play to full potential like england did and they dont have such a strong team. Cook is not even a great batter our crap bowlers made him look good.


like to see:

Hughes
Watson
Khwaja
Ponting
Clarke
Ferguson/Marsh/D.Hussey (would be a short term fix)
Paine
Starc (MJ if he gets his mojo back)
Hazlewood
Siddle/Copeland
Krejza/Beer/Hauritz
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 11:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Bell cost us 60 runs (possibly more as prior may have not steadied) were were slightly unlucky with cook (140 runs cost) just didnt like the umpire going to review it, make up your mind! call the no-ball if it is.

thats basically englands lead, if we were batting after even first innings i'd back the aussies or a draw, however luck at the moment is against us.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 11:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Flower have you seen snicko, or maybe just used your ears & eyes.

Honestly our woeful bowling as made the mediocre english batting, look splendid.
Tho none of the england bowlers are 'great' they have worked really well as a unit, some credit due.
We have a few ledgends in our batting lineup who failed to fire, which in my opinion cost us, i never expected much from anyone except mj in the bowling.
Very unhappy to the way the pitches were created, hasnt swung like this in australia since god knows when, were better on bouncy wickets, less swing.

Bell is almost as bad as those corrupt pakistanis, hes a poofta & a jerk. probaly cant look in the mirror anymore!

Aussies need to reform bowling unit, hazlewood, starc etc.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 11:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

glanced over the long list you gave me (thanks smile.gif ),

These deserve a further look in



AIR
BGL
BHP
CGS
CIL
CMA
CNH
COU
CSL
CUE
DTL
DWS ERA FGE FWD GCE GUD HGO IDE JBH JRL LUL LYL MCE MND NCK NFK NVT NWH ORL PTM QBE REF RKN SFH SND SOO
TFC TGA TRG EZL MOC TSM TWO TYO
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 04:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Bell is a dishonest cheat, the most unsportsmanlike act ive ever seen. I have no respect fo rengland whatsoever.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 3 2011, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

going to day 2 hopefully haddin and hussey get the score to at least 350-400
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 2 2011, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Rogers formula is a manipulated version of James E Walter's. Ill give an example
WOW= 1.60 earnings 25% ROE 10% DR 1.15 Div
(1.15+(2.5*(1.60-1.15))/0.1
He has taken this formula and manipulated to make it look obscure & advanced
Look, its obvious when something is cheap, the hard part is working out if it has a durable competitive advantage.
He talks sense but i wont listen to him blindly, i'd like to see his overall performance
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 2 2011, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

TWD & DGX seem alright anyone got negative fundamental perspective???????
Both ENGINEERING.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 2 2011, 05:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Ok, Try these paramenters

ROE > 20
Debt/Equity < 50
P/E < 25

EPS growth rate above 8% over past 5 years

Thanks
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 2 2011, 05:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

QUOTE
Who is talking about rationality--especially when it comes to the stockmarket, isn't anything worth what the market will pay for it on the day it is bought or sold?


Wow, whats the point of being in the sharemarket if there was no discrepancy between price and value??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 1 2011, 10:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Lol,

markets are not always rational, price does not always equal value. How was Oil worth 140$ and the next year $30?
So much investor speculation. I guess you could try work out long term demand/supply for industrial use.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 1 2011, 09:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Thanks man,

remind me of where you are doing these scans from? does it do all markets?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 1 2011, 05:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Illogical, because its hard to value a commodity, you do not know if the market has factored,underfactored or over factored the knowledge in.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 1 2011, 11:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Seriously, its hard to quantify the value of gold, considering th massive price surge i'd be very cautious and bearish, if you see anything like the CRB index in 08 i'd get out
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 1 2011, 11:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Can ordinary investors buy on the SSE
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 1 2011, 11:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

http://pragcap.com/buffetts-favorite-valua...estly-expensive

IMO overall i see the market not going much either way, unless the inflation story comes around, anything could happen but according to buffett's metric which im still working to fully get it says our market is super expensive.

ASX/GNP

= 1300/835 (Billions)
= 155%

which according to him is very expensive (says 70-80% is moderate returns)

Anyway just go about evaluating business and you'll be fine.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 1 2011, 11:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

I agree the brands are very weak, no competitive advantage
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

The fracture has moved, may require surgery.

Uzzy! Uzzy! Uzzy! (Beware)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

give us an annual return (with units) and i assume your tax rate is above 30%, which will destroy most of your profits, just buy good businesses with excellent economics. at a fair price.

http://gregspeicher.com/?p=1430
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

they have a lot of short term debt why?
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

DO they have a sustainable competitive advantage, what do they do???

Thanks for the heads up...so far, check out DGX
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 30 2010, 12:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Give us some stats, whats your avg annual return AFTER tax an other frictional costs + you have a 50/50 chance of winning/losing in the short term, i would argue there are not many of you 'gamblers' .

Just give us some stats
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 29 2010, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Does anyone have negative views on this business? fundamentlaly
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 29 2010, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Any thing besides long term is gambling unless special situations such as liquidations & bankrupticies & Arbitrage
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 27 2010, 11:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

We will see flower, we still may not lose as ive said before + we have some amazing players coming through

Khwaja, Ferguson, Hazlewood, Starc, PAINE,

Also Hughes will be back in form
+ Smith should not be in as a batter perhaps a spinner. Looking at hauritz's stats as much as i dislike him, theyre pretty good!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 27 2010, 07:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

We need to get a lead of 200+, looks like a score of 600+ in the 2nd is needed, probaly 4 batsmen need to score 400. need to be at least 400/3
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 26 2010, 10:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Dont give up just yet, ive seen stranger things remember india V Aus in like 2001 or 2003 where we enforced follow on and they got 700 or something or in 1936 we were bowled for 75 and won by 5 wkts
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 26 2010, 07:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Its bullshit, these pitches are swinging, ive never seen the ball swing like this in Australia, our batsmen are more aggressive and dont have sucha good technique for swing bowling, give us a flat pitch in Sydney
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 25 2010, 09:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Fox, distinguish yourself between the passive & active investor, if your the passive investor as i suspect, i would recommend an index fund bought consistently over time, If your only looking for a fund maybe take a look at Platinum Asset Management
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 25 2010, 09:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

seems like a decent company
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 23 2010, 04:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

A stock exchange serves to allow exchange of ownership freely, public companies are listed here. Private companies are not on the ASX and ownership changes privately.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 23 2010, 12:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

would you buy a private company for ther short term??????
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 12:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Agree!
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 21 2010, 10:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414



  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 21 2010, 10:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

gambler
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 21 2010, 05:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

To Arty:

I disagree, Volatility is not risk, its opportunity. risk is the loss of capital this only happens when you pay more than what a security is worth. If somethigni s worth $1, it trades at .80c on monday, on tuesday for no apparent reason it drops to 25c, this offers greater reward less risk & therefore volatility does not constitute risk.

To Arty & Fox & AJ007:

Arty, I will show my results need to get exact figures when i inputted & outputted money from the portfolio but im estimating 3.5% compounded per quarter (i know im doing 3.2% without half of the dividends), Over the past year ive held (CCV,TFC (last 2 months), ANZ, CSL (sold for small loss to add more $ into CCV), ANZ & tiny loss on TLS (cause im an idiot i used the wrong discount rate))

Fox, when your in the sharemarket you have to be comfortable losing 50% of the portfolio's market value due to a recession, you must not panic & sell, but rather buy (look over past few years). Quick basic tip look for companies with high ROE,ROIC & little or no debt, sustainable competitive advantage. I'm a skeptic on the resources space as there is no real competitive advantage but if i had to choose definitely BHP over RIO. perhaps look at ANZ,WBC or CBA & look at TFC,CCV. you may have missed out on Decmil, but have a look at FGE.


Also what is the capital gains tax after 12 months?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 21 2010, 05:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

"And the funny part about gold is that the higher the price the more this reinforces the reason for investing in gold"

LOL

You obviously have no understanding of value, the higher the price means more risk & less reward.

& to your comments of demand from retail investors e.g. chinese & indians (FIRSTLY they are just rumours)
This will come to an abrupt end, they cant keep purchasing the amount of gold to sustain the price (this is how bubbles form).
Retail investors tend to speculate not invest and when the market swings the otherway all the demand will drop.

Its only a matter of time (USD/GOLD)

anyways how do you value a currency, maybe the AUD is overvalued, the only thing i know is that the USD value has dropped due to QE but how much & from what value?

  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 21 2010, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

I would say gold is in a bubble, the demand is being driven by central banks and investors which is not sustainable especially if interest rates go above .25%
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 21 2010, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

As for HIL it seems relatively priced fine, its not a great company, does it have sustainable comp[etitive advantages, there are far better companies at far better prices
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 20 2010, 09:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Risk does not equal return.
lets use precise figures, say a security is worth $1 its current price is $1.90 there is no reward & very high risk
if its at $0.30 there is very little risk and quite a high reward.

PS i will be opening a fund in say around 1.5 years. I will publicise my past record (so far approx 3.2% compounded over the last 6 quarters) will redo figures and get the exact probaly slightly higher.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 20 2010, 11:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Bubbles are strange, they are driven by demand that is unsustainable, think houses in 2008, people were buying houses fueled by debt (unsustainable) but the demand was real. With rare earths i have no idea you have to decide is the demand coming from china to make stuff or investors speculating if its the former you need to work out how long it will last, China will grow fast for the next 10 years at least IMO
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 20 2010, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

They are not rare, they used to be called rarely mined minerals.They changed the name to make it more appealing
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 19 2010, 11:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

very true. " assess how good a broker's (or astrologer's, or lawyer's, or...) advice is, the best if not only way lies in collecting their predictions - as many as possible - and revisit the outcomes after a year or ten.
No point taking their assurances for gospel -"
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 19 2010, 11:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

the stockmarket often is irrational but price eventually converges with value, what rational did you use when purchasing TLS at 8 or 9 dollars,

ps. $1 book value, had 100% payout ratio, with a 10% discount rate (assuming passive money could get that risk free i wasnt really around), ROE 30%, 3*$1=$3. Or you can do a discounted cashflow, assuming growth of 3% for the next 10 years the intrinsic value was about $3.31.

I cant understand how anyone would pay above $3
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 19 2010, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

ur a noob.

stop using telstra as an example because it was worth $3 10 years ago & still is worth $3 possibly slightly less.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 18 2010, 12:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

MJ is back with his fixed action creating inswing. I hope they dont drop hughes, he really is good.
Don think we need siddle put smith down the order & play him as a spinner with Kwhaja coming in for siddle
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 17 2010, 11:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

book value has nothing to do with value.
When we purchased See's in 1972, it will be

recalled, it was earning about $2 million on $8 million of net tangible

assets. Let us assume that our hypothetical mundane business

then had $2 million of earnings also, but needed $18 million in net

tangible assets for normal operations. Earning only 11% on required

tangible assets, that mundane business would possess little

or no economic Goodwill.

[/size]

A business like that, therefore, might well have sold for the

value of its net tangible assets, or for $18 million. In contrast, we

paid $25 million for See's, even though it had no more in earnings

and less than half as much in "honest-to-God" assets. Could less

really have been more, as our purchase price implied? The answer

is "yes"-even if both businesses were expected to have fiat unit volume-

as long as you anticipated, as we did in 1972, a world of continuous

inflation.


To understand why, imagine the effect that a doubling of the

price level would subsequently have on the two businesses. Both

would need to double their nominal earnings to $4 million to keep

themselves even with inflation. This would seem to be no great

trick: just sell the same number of units at double earlier prices

and, assuming profit margins remain unchanged, profits also must

double.


But, crucially, to bring that about, both businesses probably

would have to double their nominal investment in net tangible assets,

since that is the kind of economic requirement that inflation

usually imposes on businesses, both good and bad. A doubling of

dollar sales means correspondingly more dollars must be employed

immediately in receivables and inventories. Dollars employed in

fixed assets will respond more slowly to inflation, but probably just

as surely. And all of this inflation-required investment will produce

no improvement in rate of return. The motivation for this

investment is the survival of the business, not the prosperity of the

owner.


Remember, however, that See's had net tangible assets of only

$8 million. So it would only have had to commit an additional $8

million to finance the capital needs imposed by inflation. The

mundane business, meanwhile, had a burden over twice as large-a

need for $18 million of additional capital.

After the dust had settled, the mundane business, now earning

$4 million annually, might still be worth the value of its tangible

assets, or $36 million. That means its owners would have gained

only a dollar of nominal value for every new dollar invested. (This

176 is the same dollar-for-dollar result they would have achieved if

they had added money to a savings account.)

See's, however, also earning $4 million, might be worth $50

million if valued (as it logically would be) on the same basis as it

was at the time of our purchase. So it would have gained $25 million

in nominal value while the owners were putting up only $8

million in additional capital-over $3 of nominal value gained for

each $1 invested.


[size="4"]Remember, even so, that the owners of the See's kind of business

were forced by inflation to ante up $8 million in additional

capital just to stay even in real profits. Any unleveraged business

that requires some net tangible assets to operate (and almost all

do) is hurt by inflation. Businesses needing little in the way of tangible

assets simply are hurt the least.

And that fact, of course, has been hard for many people to

grasp. For years the traditional wisdom-long on tradition, short

on wisdom-held that inflation protection was best provided by

businesses laden with natural resources, plants and machinery, or

other tangible assets ("In Goods We Trust"). It doesn't work that

way. Asset-heavy businesses generally earn low rates of returnrates

that often barely provide enough capital to fund the inflationary

needs of the existing business, with nothing left over for real

growth, for distribution to owners, or for acquisition of new

businesses.


In contrast, a disproportionate number of the great business

fortunes built up during the inflationary years arose from ownership

of operations that combined intangibles of lasting value with

relatively minor requirements for tangible assets. In such cases

earnings have bounded upward in nominal dollars, and these dollars

have been largely available for the acquisition of additional

businesses. This phenomenon has been particularly evident in the

communications business. That business has required little in the

way of tangible investment-yet its franchises have endured. During

inflation, Goodwill is the gift that keeps giving.

But that statement applies, naturally, only to true economic

Goodwill. Spurious accounting Goodwill-and there is plenty of it

around-is another matter. When an overexcited management

purchases a business at a silly price, the same accounting niceties

described earlier are observed. Because it can't go anywhere else,

the silliness ends up in the Goodwill account. Considering the lack

of managerial discipline that created the account, under such circumstances

it might better be labeled "No-Will". Whatever the

term, the 40-year ritual typically is observed and the adrenalin so

capitalized remains on the books as an "asset" just as if the acquisition

had been a sensible one.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 17 2010, 11:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Look Fozzy, I've run over the company, i cant predict future free cashflows for this company and it lacks a significant margin of safety.
& to rogers valuation, i use Discounted free cashflows and are usually similar to his but i wouldnt always trust his valuations as his formual is very strange. e.g. if you have a company with ROE 30 and a discount rate of 10
30/10 = 3
so in table 11.1 you times the book value by 3
for table 11.2 he does 30/10 =3 & then raises it to the power of 1.8 for what godly known reason & multiplies it by the equity and weights each table according to payout ratio, food for thought...

it may well be worth more than its current price but i dont fully understand engineering & drilling companies just yet.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 15 2010, 10:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

while siddle is a hard worker i dont rate him
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 15 2010, 09:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Parameters:

ROE > 15%
EPS growth over past 5 years > 8% compounded
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 15 2010, 08:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Any broker who is a FA, & recommended BNB, ABC learnings, QAN, TLS theyre all shithouse companies, you could tell ABC was going broke, look at capex, rising debt & low returns on equity.

As for a long term time frame i have that.

ETF's from memory give you like 7%-9% over the long term, correct me if im wrong, Buffet was doing 29.3% compounded for 15 years or so & averages 22% over like 50 years. there is a massive difference. i.e. if you invested 10000, from buffet you would have got 80 million & from ETF you would have got 560K. basically 160 times difference.

If arty could turn 5000, in 7500 he would be a millionaire in 13 years if he started with ONLY 5000.

Discounting is the correct measure of value however you need a stable company in a stable industry.

For small caps there is FA, cash converters or TFS corp, i own both and are both small/med caps.

Buying a company without a profit is gambling unless profit inevitable from a growing customer base and low variable costs
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 13 2010, 10:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

mpl, u resemble a gambler, good luck you'll need it.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 12 2010, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i reckon its a scam, i would take it to the police and go from there, but i wouldnt know.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 12 2010, 11:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

does the company have a sustainable competitive advantage?
if so someone please explain them

thanks
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 11 2010, 10:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

selectors said 1 fast bowler will be dropped.

apparently beer is meant to be similar to warne mentally like sledging.
Dno i though Smith could be used a pure spinner. Krejza was good dont think he should have been droped a 10 wicket haul in India.
Callum ferguson needs to come in & khawaja
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 11 2010, 10:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

thanks for the tickers, what screener do you use?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 11 2010, 10:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

you chartists are like buying little pieces of paper that you try predict future with no understanding of whats behind it, your buying a business. If you went to buy the corner store would you go ask every person in the street how much would you buy it for. You only buy an asset if it is worth it through the future streams of cash. read this article if you have the time, http://www.fusioninvesting.com/Files/readi...erinvestors.pdf .

Arty im not an idiot, i know what im doing, i know what i need to improve on and that is understanding accounting & actual businesses, like its obvious you cant to own a business that your customers pay direct cash, eliminating accounts receivable (See's Candy Choc Shop).

Arty you can go enjoy charting but are you a multi millionaire?

in either case i dont really care about the money, im more into building an empire of businesses, kinda like tycoons i guess.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 11 2010, 10:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Everyne on the FORUM, i need to solve this issue with DCF.
We can all agree that higher ROE is usually a better business all other things being equal ok.

So if we look at the worser business SEE ATTACHMENT

Ok on a DCF the worser business will be worth more than the better business.

Theses are only profit figures and we should be using Owners earnings (profit+depr/amor-capex required to maintain unit volume)
Is their a correlation between capex & ROE, does a lower ROE = more maintenance capex therefore less owners earnings and a lesser valuation????
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/valuation-me...-owner-earnings


Or Am i wrong??


Thanks
Tyler
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 10 2010, 10:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

rogers view is perfectly correct for the years 2000-2006/7
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 10 2010, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i thought the selections were good
would have liked to seen smith as the pure spinner, with khwaja or ferguson in the team
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 10 2010, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Wren, i saw that post by Roger.
Look Roger i think isnt a genius. But he has memorized Buffetts principles which has allowed him to do well.
His funny formula is bullshit in my opnion. but ROE is important.
But the negative operating cashflow was definitely cause for concern.
However in the past 3 years, the company has improved and operating cashflow is very close to my approximations for Free cash flow.
2008 -- the figure overstates real earnings
2009 -- the figure is approximately real earnings (slighlty less)
2010 -- the figures should be +25 mil (the company is waiting on a 50 million payment) 26 mil is the approximate real earnings.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 10:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

from a quick glance with no knowledge of company:

good / decent buy price
not an amazing company, doesnt generate extremely high returns
DONT WORRY ABOUT THE SHARE PRICE.
Mr. Market, an obliging fellow who turns up every day at the share holder's door offering to buy or sell his shares at a different price. Often, the price quoted by Mr. Market seems plausible, but sometimes it is ridiculous. The investor is free to either agree with his quoted price and trade with him, or ignore him completely. Mr. Market doesn't mind this, and will be back the following day to quote another price.

make sure company has a competitive advantage
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 10:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

cool story but rather look at ERA, but im not expoert on ore grades etc. so im not sure hoever the uranium demand looks strong but remember this is a commodity business with no economic moat
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 09:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

almost got 1 more exam.

good. i dont trade i invest (TFC,ANZ,CCV)
thanks for asking
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

from a bank that would have gone bankrupt if not for the Fed
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 08:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Well wren ill tell you this ur going to make some money buy holding CSL but your not gonna double your money in the next two years i promise you that. As well as this i dont know how you could value CSL with all the USD exposure because i cant value USD except for the fact its value has fallen due to QE. I'd rather QBE at a much cheaper price than CSL. Sad how you put in a short term price change. Wren your not that smart get over it
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 08:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

USD earnings

  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

EBITDA is a bogus figure, capex of 10 mil i doubt it, i think its more
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 08:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Suti,
Lending rates for banks have risen, if you bothered to do any reasearch you would see that ANZ Net interest margin has fallen to 2.47% from 2.74% 10 years ago.
Also THEY ARE NOT LYING!!!!
if your so jealous and think theyre making huge profits go buy their stock.
however i HATE how we pay the bank ceo's so much
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 08:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Charting is pure speculation & gambling. go read 'intelligent investor' by benjamin graham
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 08:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

you dont really want them paying dividends if they can purchase stores at 5 times earnings with growing earnings (i.e. ROE at 20%). Ive tried to explain this to management. Also dont follow profit growth, follow EPS growth. The only problem i have with this company is management. The CEO has issued 20 million options which in my opnion is complete theft! this dilutes existing shareholders something like 3%. Also i dislike the fact they keep issuing 'cheap' shares.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 08:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Hi sorry about the delay,

Basically i discount estimates of future 'owners earnings' similar to free cash flow but different.

Basically, you can use a calculator, but if you cant do it in your head & see that the share is underpriced, its not cheap enough.

Few points:
1. P/E is nto really that important however i do confess to looking at it
2. Look at ROE, Dont worry about how the ROE dropped this year, its because they issued shares and have not used most of the cash.
3. Buffett wrote "Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business.
4. Invest big when you have a good idea

I own 3 companies for all my invested money
TFC, CCV, ANZ (not as cheap as the formers)
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 9 2010, 07:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

no one believed me...
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Sep 27 2010, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

I cannot predict gold prices, extremely hard to value.

However:

1. Fundamentally the gold comapanies in general are extremely overvalued
2. There is so much speculationin the gold price and distortion with speculators and a few central banks buying, the demand is no sustainable

So in conclusion there is no reason to buy gold companies.

From history gold bull markets end abruptly, and head down speedily.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Sep 27 2010, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

TFC is extremeley cheap
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jul 9 2010, 07:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Assume:

- Capex Reduces to 15 million i.e. maintaining capital (rises at 3% for the next 10 years)
- Operating earnings increase at 3% for the next 10 years
- Depre & Amort increase at 3% for the next 10 years

i.e.

FCF = Operating earnings + Depre & Amort - Capex

So FCF = -10 cents per share but if capex was reduced to say 20 mil instead of 50 mil (management has stated extra capex for expansion)

FCF would = 12 cents per share

the valuation would be:

$2.53

therefore my buy price would be anything less that $1.26.

Also we would have to subtract the obvious next few years of capital expendite reducing this valuation.

In Conclusion this company is not a bad company but its not trading at a price where i have a significant Margin of safety.

I would not buy this company at this price maybe if it dropped to below buy price i will considerate again.

Also i am not 100% with the growth rates and therefore i would suggest any potential investors to work ou there own growth rates as im not familiar with the company. However it does seem to have a competitive advantage.
Good Luck !!!!

Tyler

P.s Arty, i dont care what the price action is like, you may do that and you may understand and do well with it. But to me its illogical. if a business is worth XY if the price is falling the investment gradually becomes more attractive. But your investment decisions are yours and i wont argue with you.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jul 6 2010, 09:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

looking really good, just i cant value it becasue no free cash flow but i suppose i can estimate, but could be wrong will report tomoz
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: May 24 2010, 06:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

theres a seller on the end of every trade....
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: May 24 2010, 06:05 PM


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Posts: 414

bought at 21.38
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: May 16 2010, 02:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

the value of the usd is going to fall becuase they have to issue so many gov bonds each year to fund debt, really is simple

* long term im referring to
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: May 15 2010, 05:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

wolv dno y we r arguing over something so irrelevant, i would by QBE when it is 50% below its valuation (i.e. 38-19/38)((X-.5X) / X)
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: May 2 2010, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

I would buy it at $19

19/38 = 50%
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Apr 29 2010, 10:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

O'Hallaran is not going to be there forever and im still young

through my valuations

QBE = $38

therefore i would only buy at less than $20 (pref under $19) (50% under value) to achieve a good return

more valuations

ANZ- buy $22

WBC - buy $23

JBH - Buy $17
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Apr 28 2010, 09:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

I hope to be corrected.

1. QBE is cheap!

However

2. It acquires businesses rather than investing in its own - suggesting that 'if management dont see QBE as a good business why should we invest in it" - Benjamin Graham

3. I Like the insurance industry - low capex

4. QBE has outstanding management - proven through the performance over the past 10 years

so one day the management will change and im not sure if i want to be in a decent ship with outstanding management (QBE) or an outstanding ship that an idiot can run.

Just my thoughts



PS... i havent spent much time on QBE. like i said i hope to be corrected because it is cheap in terms of numbers.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Apr 28 2010, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Tassal Group is an extremeley interesting company
Profits 30 mil
Amort & Dep 10 mil
Capex 50 Mil (15Mil for replacement & repair & 35MIL in new technologies)

FCF = - 10mil

therefore i cant really value it however
assume capex drops to 15 mil this stock could be worth $4-$5

also controls 70 PERCENT of the salmon market in AUS
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Apr 28 2010, 06:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

throught my valuations CCV is a buy under $1 (worth $2)

some others

JBH buy $17-18
ANZ buy $22
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Feb 9 2010, 07:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

if tls was a bond like the aus 10 yr yielding 6% its share price or par value would be $6.22
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 23 2010, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

ive been saying tls is a bargain, worth well over 4.80 so long as a profit+Dep&amor - cap exp. can grow at around 3%
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 23 2010, 10:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Wow is not a stock, but a VERY good business churning out huge profits. Its gone sideways/down as it was very overvalued 2 years back, still in my opinion slightley pricey.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 23 2010, 09:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

does it really matter if it goes up or down in the next year or two from 17$, if i get it at 16-17$ i know ill have a bargains and i really dont care where it goes.

investing how i see it is the same as buying a private company.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 18 2010, 10:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

if IPL hypothetically is going to grow earnings at 7% for the next 10 years, the company should deliver you around 9% p.a compounded in gains. which is not great. I see wesptac giving 11% returns.

overall IPL is fully valued and the hypothetical growth is fairly optimistic.

  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 18 2010, 10:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Im not saying it will go to 17$, athough i hope some idiot will sell me a part of this company for that amount.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 14 2010, 09:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

with a 7% growth rate in earnings over the next 10 years IPL is more than fairly valued
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 14 2010, 01:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Looking at arbitrage here. got a retail entitlement offer at $42.10. Shares trading at 48.60, I do not own any. What are your thoughts of this arbitrage opportunity?
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 11 2010, 02:52 PM


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Posts: 414

2 new stores opened, 1 acquired
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 09:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

not sure about thhe company but has good numbers
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

well, if you got a company that produces gold at 800$ (Company A) and one that produces at $400 (Company B/ LGL,NCM)

gold is 1000, moves up to 1100

so company A has just increased its profits by 50% 200 to 300

so company B has increased its profits by 16% from 600-700

therefore company A (small cap gold) has a tendancy to spike more or less with the gold price.


do u get it?
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 09:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Now 69 cents, dreaming of a pullback, missed the opportunity to buy at 64 cents.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 09:35 PM


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Posts: 414

not so eager on this company only because of its price, would rather wait (very hopeful) to a pullback to 17,18
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 29 2009, 02:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

done some research.
this is only an estimate. JBH will be trading in the $50 range in 10 years representing an annual compounded return of around 14% incl div (approx 3%).

disregard price in '11' as we arent in that year
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  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 29 2009, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

update to attachment
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  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 29 2009, 02:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

researching this great company, hope it keeps dropping.

can anyone fill me in on its competitive advantage? does it have any pricing power?
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 28 2009, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

so ull only buy it if it becomes more expensive?
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 28 2009, 03:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

this stock should be in the high $30's at least.

anyone got growth rates for this company.

some are saying 182c 2010 while others 217c 2010
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 28 2009, 03:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

do u know why you get more bang for your buck at the lower end of commodities, its nothing to do with charts but pure fundamentals
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 24 2009, 05:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Check Sheet 2 or my woolworths valuation through DCF looks like a buy (2003-09)
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  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 11:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

MistaGear, are you saying that if you value something at 400 mil and its 200 mil (you buy some) and it drops to 100 mil (you buy some). Thats dollar cost averaging and its a perfectly correct technique so long as the value stays the same.

Now if you say im wrong your saying Warren Buffet is wrong when he purchased a media company at 200 mil it dropped to 100 mil and he kept buying and buying, he made a huge amount of profit from that transaction
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 12:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

can anyone update me on the fundamentals

does it have a steady base of revenue?
Long term growth rates

because with the consensus earnings estimates for 2011 the stock looks cheap,
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 18 2009, 12:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

hi guys can someone work out the owners earnings for a company and i wanna see if i can get the same answer
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 11 2009, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Charting is the most ridiculous thing ive ever heard!!! A 5 yr old can draw lines that indicate support and resistance...what a load of BS. Would you buy a house based on charting??? i would hope not so why would you buy an asset with charting!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 11 2009, 04:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

break what?
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 11 2009, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i warned you guys that this share was a bargain, i guess i should have been more assured of myself and bought more, Good experience lesson. The market is presenting fewer and fewer investment bargains, however there are still some good investments, CCV still is a great investment opportunity and if Woolworths can tick below $25 it would also be presenting a great opportunity.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 10 2009, 12:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i really need the share go below 60cents so i can buy more.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 8 2009, 10:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

dont follow charts, and my investment in lgl is speculative. MPL please watch this

http://boardroom-pc.streamguys.us/files/ASX/ASX20090605/
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 8 2009, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

on the next spike i might sell out, i cant value gold, no one can really not even buffet
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 10:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Hi guys can anyone find access to the TOTAL RETURN of the ASX 200 (dividends reinvested) i need to track my portfolio against this. i need data for June 30 2009, September 30 2009, ill need December 31 2009 and then march 31 (2010)
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 09:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

DTL looks good with numbers, ive plugged in 10% growth for next 3 years and 2% there onwards and you can reasonably with those figurs expect a 11.5% compunded return annually, however i dont know the business well enough to make accurate growth estimates, so you could get a lower or higher return then i have stated. if my numbers are correct you would be better off putting your money in QBE(3g), TLS(2.5g) or CCV(15g 3 years 5g onwards) all delivering 12%,11%,15% respectively
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 08:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

great find and cheap price im a bit weary as it is a tech company
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

CW what level did you buy in on Telstra i got in at $3.27, also if you bought CBA back in the 20's you could reasonably expect 15% annual compounded returns possibly more with consistent growth in FCF
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 08:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

the banks can only be valued against the returns you want currently if you bought CBA you could achieve 11% compounded annual returns over the long term
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i think with these stocks youve listed you need cosistently growing eps and find the ones with great future prospects, business models
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

64 cents now
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 6 2009, 11:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

CCV

eps growing
p/e 10
div 5%
cap 200mil
D-e is 15% or 20%
been growing profits rapidly for the last 5 years
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 6 2009, 09:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

buying this company at these levels with 0% growth implied (earnings are moving lower according to estimates next year) you would get a 9% annual compound return and this is without a margin of safety
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 6 2009, 09:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

theres been a 20% move in the AUD against the greenback this will impact EPS to around $1.6-$1.75, so no as attractive as i though
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 6 2009, 09:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

CVN - not a bad buy at these prices you can reasonably expect a 12% compounded annual return over the foreseeable future, however i believe you can get 11.5% annual returns with Telstra at these prices and 15% with CCV or 11% with CBA
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 6 2009, 09:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i think the ball off pitch didnt come onto the bat on the 3rd day, our batsman scored slowly compared to a windies line up on day 1 + 2. expect wickets to tumble and runs to be scarce. Hope hauristz can bag 3+
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 6 2009, 09:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

CASH CONVERTERS, i really want it to go down so i can buy more

i bought in at 0.565c
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 6 2009, 05:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

global warming may be a problem, i think we cant afford not to believe in it but people have their doubts on it. However actuaries are extremely smart people
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 5 2009, 08:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

QBE in my opinion is extremely cheap but i need to research where its investments are.

  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 5 2009, 08:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Aldi is certainly a new major competitor and apparently is growing rapidly. watch out.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 5 2009, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

dont care much for levels if you do a DCF with 0% growth its worth 70 cents. this business is a definite buy
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 10:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

just a thought..

what will happen to resource companies when resources run out? will they go renewable?

opinions would be welcomes...im really interested to hear
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 10:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

your return is a function of the price paid. i will not buy WOW above $25 this year unless circumstances and valuations change/ my knowledge becomes mroe knowledgable smile.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 09:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

up over 10% last two days? wow
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 09:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

nearing record highs
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 30 2009, 08:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

woolworths is definitely one of the best business's on the ASX DEFINITELY!. i just hope to buy it at a resonable price (mr. buffet)
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 30 2009, 07:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

getting an interview with maccas
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 30 2009, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i really hope this share plunges down, i have a 2011 target value of 32$ for this share . currently i value it at 23$ so ideall id like to purchase it at $20 now or $25 in 2011 however i dont think that will be likely
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 30 2009, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

telstra at 10$ levels would represent annual compound growth at 6% which has definitely not happened. I envisage growth to be around 3% making Telstra worth in the vicinity of $5.

ps bought in at $3.27 and my grandpa bought in earlier at 3.15

&

Analysts estimate that eps for 2011 will be around 38c which is more than 10% bigger than todays eps, however i cannot guarantee these results and i use a 3% G rate for Telstra and a 20% margin of safety represnting a buy position at $3.40 or less
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 29 2009, 04:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i understand your concern, however that is another indication its the time to buy, when people are scared, uncertain. if Mr Thodey hits his expected 6bl in cashflow telstras free cash flow will increase tremendously, allowing dividends, debt, acquisitions & other needs to be paid. therefore increasing the value of the business. also you cant expect tremendous capital growth with a such high payout ratio. telstra is almost a risk free 9%
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 28 2009, 10:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

DCF

FCF Growth
Yrs 1-6 = 5%
Yrs 6-10 = 3%
Terminal Growth = 2%

Discount Rate 9%

Telsta Share Value = Around $5.20
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 28 2009, 10:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i conservatively value them at $1.08-$1.25
a margin of safety of 30%
CCV is a buy below 78 cents
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 27 2009, 08:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

CCV upgrades profit guidance from 18 mil to 21
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 23 2009, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

well for a start. CCV have many franchised stores and theyre buying them back. Cash converters is easier to use than ebay for the non computer savvy. i dont have time to do this right now cuz i gotta pack for a camp. i do hope that CCV expands into the Bric nations though.

i like looking at the numbers and CCV's numbers look good
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 21 2009, 10:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

market cap = 1 mil
china deal = 2 mil over 5 yrs

y am i not buying this share lol

will do more research
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 21 2009, 10:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

the value of Lihir that us shareholders can only realise - IS IN AUD, therefore we have to use gold/aud. any dividends we receive will be in aud etc.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 21 2009, 10:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

made a mistake , however still comfortable i bought them.

instead of 240 mil outstanding shares its closer to 350mil therefore

p/e is closer to 11

eps is estimated at 6.5c next year.

however still a good buy and will buy more if it goes below 50c
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 18 2009, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

is their a programs that searches through the ASX where you can find companies that match your queries

e.g.

Company that has a P/E ratio of < 5

Company A P/E 3 (comes up / is a result)
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 17 2009, 07:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

wren, great chart, love the accummuation period!

Flower the AUD conversion eats most of the gains we are making in USD.
Because they have to convert their USD revenue into AUD
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 17 2009, 07:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Bear markets when people lose sight of fundamentals - sell to the smart investors
Bull markets people lose sight of fundamentals near the end, smart investors sell to speculators.

if i can compound 15% returns per year ill be extremely wealthy, you may make 20% in 1,2,3 days but eventually the market will get you back, we fundamentalists like to put the odds heavily in our favour.

The numbers tell a story, listen, and decide.

I disclose that i am speculating on Gold shares but i hold TLS, CCV, For value shares & IPL for a possible Cyclic Rebound, but it is worth more than 2.80, and it will be higher in 2-3 years
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

soz didnt know

MY!, thats alot of brokerage fees LOL
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

I DNO, build long term wealth you can make heaps of cash in the 15-20 years of investment.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 08:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

dont speculate
  Forum: Macro Factors

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 07:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i really couldnt care about the short term, i know IPL is worth much above $3
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

bought in today at .565
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 07:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

MPL ive made more than double my money, however i believe gold stocks are very hard to value, by buying gold shares your speculating on the gold price, you probaly missed todays jump right?
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 15 2009, 08:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

well for DCF its probaly around $34 but thats usually the high end of a valuation.
and for my other formula

ROE/RRR*shareholder equity / shares outstanding

= 16$ per share

however i think CSL's ROE will increase or maintain the ROE of the past 2 years giving a value of

= $22

now if you average that out and it value is between

28-34$



im dissapointed with this purchase because their is a huge opportunity cost, im so keen on TLS & CCV
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 15 2009, 05:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

im really upset i bought CSL.

let it be known, CSL is a great company, but its real value it closer to the $28 mark
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 15 2009, 05:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

ye just finished yr 10 then i still got 11, 12 , uni
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 15 2009, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

rule 1 : never predict, look at the cold raw stats, figures (you can still try project growth but do so with caution and "conservative" i actually value IPL very highly look at its ROE!
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 11:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

ive done some exams, what year you in?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 11:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

http://www.amazon.com/Investment-Valuation...d/dp/0471414883


http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Statements...4223&sr=1-1

not up to security analysis yet, but i will read it.

anyone heard of this valuation formula

(Return On Equity / Real Rate Of Return (~9%) * Shareholder equity) / (Shares Outstanding)

e.g. Telstra

31% /8% = 3.3
3.3 * 12841 = 49759
49758 /12443

=$4
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 11:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

from a couple of calculations it seems like IPL is undevalued, i was really surprised by the massive rise in expenses tho
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 03:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Any input,

P/e ratio is 8
Div is 5.5%

DCF 5% growth 11% DR $1.20 a share

currently 54 cents

ROE= 20% for the last 5 yrs

ROE/RRR * Equity All / Shares
=86 cents per share
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 03:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

how much have u day traders made on lihir with brokerage costs included
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

i like bloomberg news, the interviews are interesting.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 03:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Im reading the intelligent investor -benjamin graham

then ill read

security analysis
analyzing balance sheets
valuation methods and tools
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 12 2009, 08:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Anyone want to do some analysis on Cash Converters. I value them 50% higher then they are now. Please anyone with input

ROE / RRR * Equity ALL divided by Outstanding shares
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 12 2009, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

bull markets are like parabolas they go up and up faster and faster then explode then fall to cheap prices
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 12 2009, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

Flower the AUD definitely affects earnings, read their earnings report.
  Forum: By Share Code

Tylergold
Posted on: Nov 6 2009, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 414

bought TLS at 3.27

seems unvervalued through
DCF
P/E
D Yield
Best Time To Buy Is In The Worst Scenario ( Now ) or Most Uncertain.

Also Dont Think TLS will go down the worst possible scenario is about $2.80 cuz why would you have your money in the bank when you receive 10% with not much risk and profits are growing steadily around 3-4%
  Forum: By Share Code

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