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crashtstdumy
Posted on: Mar 22 2020, 02:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Welcome back Mark. Great to hear from you again.

I'm surprised to hear your long considering your past posts.
Did you re-enter recently and more importantly could you give us your guesstimate from a technical perspective where you estimate the next substantial support levels are for the Dow and the S&P ?. (My rough estimate is around 15-16k for the Dow & 1700 for the S&P). I know your answer is likely to refer to the insanity of today's environment and I can't remember such wild and extensive swings in the 2008 crash (which I was trading) but hey, you can't blame me for asking 😊
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Aug 7 2017, 05:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Mark a great read as always.
Good to hear from you again. I have to admit I haven't been active on SS since your break.
If possible it would be appreciated if you could footnote references for the sources of your facts. I'm not debating their validity, just interested in learning by expanding my reference sources.
Thanks.

CTD.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: May 4 2017, 07:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

I would suggest checking out Westpac Online trading. The platform seems to be identical to Comsec but in different colours. Cant say yet if IRESS works on it as I'm currently using a Adroid phone but I can say that having previously been a Macquarie Prime client but having to move due to Macquarie closing their Margin loans I found that BT Margin lending (owned by Westpac) the most competative in what they could offer. CBA rejected my application because I'm currently still traveling the world ( 5 years now) NAB offered me a credit limit of 1.1 Million at 5.8% variable rate and I signed up with BT because as a wholesale investor they approved a limit of 4.5 Million at 4.2%. LVRs on the blue chips at 75% which might be lower that NAB at 80% ion some blue chips.
The above may seem irrelevant when talking trading platforms but it is something to consider as the next step relating to the platform. Personally I view the market as high so I'm not drawing down on the loan until we have a crash but it's what I did during 2008 which enabled me to be classified a wholesale investor today. Good to have the ammo ready.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Mar 6 2016, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

I found the Macquarie Prime margin lending account the best option for me several years ago when i was looking. I don't know how competative it is now. Currently it pays 2% at call for positive balances, interest calculated daily and credited monthly and %7.2 for negative balances. No fees. It has been a useful tool for me I borrowed big on it pretty much at the bottom of the 2008/09 crisis and sold off enough to make it positive again at the end of 2013 when i viewed things as expensive again which seems to have been a good move in hindsight. It may sound like an exaggeration or that I'm spruiking but I retired 5 years ago at the age of 43 by and large thanks to that account. Now patiently waiting for the crash so i can do it again but been tempted by the banks recent lows.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 24 2016, 07:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Sorry just change those charts to the 'Max' timeline option when you click on them.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 24 2016, 07:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Dow Jones Long term Chart
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 24 2016, 07:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

S&P 500 Long term chart

Would the 'Tech heads' amongst us like to comment on the long term Charts for the DJS and the S&P 500 ?
If i was a bull I'd be hot under the collar looking at these but I never seem to hear anybody mentioning them.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Mar 27 2015, 02:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Mark. I have nowhere near the knowledge or expedience of the markets as you do but over the years have done well enough with my trading in equities to retire in 2010 at the age of 43. Like you I also sold off a significant portion of my portfolio in 2013 and have been traveling the world continuously for the last 3 years (currently in South America) but I don't think we have egg on our faces, I think the adage 'The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid' is appropriate in the current environment (and is why I haven't shorted) and those who are disciplined and patient will once again be rewarded. Thanks again for your views.
(btw can't 'Thank' your posts at the moment from my smartphone the option is missing)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 28 2014, 06:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

And the Dow .....
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 28 2014, 06:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

The S&P since 1978 :
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 27 2014, 11:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks GG. only got a smart phone as I'm travelling the world. About to hike up a mountain in Panama so I'll try later.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 27 2014, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Can the TechHeads amongst us comment on this longer term picture of the S&P and Dow please?
If I was a Bull I'd be nervous even without Mark's insightful logic..
As my inexperience on SS probably means me probably failing to correctly paste these links I'm just attempting to link Google finance's max time length charts for the Dow and the S&P which don't paint a pretty picture going forward when viewing 1978 through to now. Just choose the chart length value of 'max'

https://www.google.com/m/finance#company/INDEXSP:.INX

https://www.google.com/m/finance



  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Dec 12 2013, 12:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Mark. Do you have any contacts in the Australian Media who could do a story on the whole sorry situation?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Nov 5 2013, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

I've been traveling since the start of March in 2012 (currently in Jamaica) and came across Max Keiser on Russian tv whilst in the Uk. His report 'The Keiser Report' is probably not known by most Australians on this site but highly amusing and probably closer to reality than his seemingly exaggerated entertainment suggests.
In keeping with the spirit of this discussion he is worth checking out :

www.maxkeiser.com/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 23 2013, 08:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Flower I'm using a Galaxy S2 so I'll check it out.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 23 2013, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Arty and Falko. I'm currently traveling the world (for the past 18 months) and should have added that in my quest to travel light I've only got an Android smartphone with me so if anyone has the same with a direct link to a site with the 50 and 200 DMAs overlaid on each other I'd be much appreciative. Thanks Arty for the links but so far I've only been able to show the 400/200 on the 200/50 you supplied but maybe just needs more experimentation on my part. And Falko as I'm on the smartphone I couldn't download the charting software but again if I ferret around on the site long enough maybe I'll discover an active chart with both overlaid.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 23 2013, 06:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Hi there. Could someone please steer me towards a site where I can get up to date charts showing the All Ords 50 and 200 Daily moving averages please?
I'd like to overlay the two and keep an eye on the cross over points.
Thanks.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Aug 9 2013, 09:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Well I've got it but it's one of my forgotten stocks given my small holding and the fact that I've also been offshore for the last year and a half.
Doesn't look like the outlook in the short to medium term is great for it from the little I've read. What are your thoughts on it?
  Forum: By Share Code

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Mar 4 2010, 05:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Mark,

As already said by many. I will miss your insights and talk of grass huts and cordial when things look tough. All the best for the future I I wish you personal success with the new venture & hope those you now guide gain the same satisfaction from your knowledge and entertaining style as I've received.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Oct 10 2009, 10:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Yeah Mosaic I've been offered Edge but haven't checked out the detail of it yet. I'll be interested to find out the fees associated with it and how they compare to the Prime platform but am interested in the research. I've found Prime to be good but the live info is expensive. Also found the charting option wasn't reliable for a week or so and when I called them was told it was in hand with support. I asked where the Support was and they told me France. I just imagined some Frenchmen saying 'It is not owl problam It is yous!'
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Oct 4 2009, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Axeman, some interesting stuff there I'd be keen to hear what Arty makes of it ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 21 2009, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

You hit the nail on the head Arty!
The world would be a much better place if we taught children how to think not what to think. Sadly, few people practise Critical thought when they need to or even know what it is.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 18 2009, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Yes of course Sirob but I think your missing my point on the amount of tax you pay - 50% difference is very relevant.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 18 2009, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Mark,

I don't however think I explained myself as well I could have. My basic point is the assumption that you are going to make the same net profit in both tax scenarios ie 'now or later' later is incorrect.
Thanks to our tax system If you hold a share for at least 12 months you will pay half as much capital gains tax on it (assuming that the sale price in both scenarios is the same.)

Scenario 1:

Lets say you buy $100 worth of a stock. Hold it for 6 months then sell it for $150 and your tax rate is 37.5 cents in the dollar you will pay $18.75 in tax leaving you with a net profit of $31.25 or %31.25
You sold it because you expected the stock (as well as the broader market) to drop approx %10 relatively soon.
Your view turned out to be correct and one month later the same company dropped %10 to $135. You buy it again for $135 and hold it for another 6 months where it returns again to $150. Should you then sell stock again at this point you will be liable for tax at %37.5 so your $15 profit becomes $9.37 profit or %6.95 Your total net profit over the year is $40.62 or %40.62

Scenario 2:

Lets now say the above scenario is the same except you hold the same stock for the whole 12 months then sell it again for $150 you will only pay $9.37 tax leaving you with a net profit of $40.62 or %40.62


Assumptions:

We are assuming of course that the stock has returned to it's previous price of $150. If we are to propose the same scenario for the XJO and used yesterday's close of 4714 we would then be saying that it would at the same level in another year's time regardless of a 'W' or any other letter you choose. Obviously there's much scope for for movement in either direction but the above two scenarios don't account for brokerage fees and dividends which would then make 'Scenario 2' the winner.

Hypothesis:

Obviously there are many other scenarios other than the two I have mentioned above but my point is that if you are going to sell on the expectation of a drop in the market it is important to have a strategy as to upon what circumstances, level and time line you would reenter. You do need a reference point in all analysis. It does not seem unreasonable to me that XJO could be approximately where it is today in a years time after some ups and downs which would make the above two scenarios relevant.
That said, given that Scenario 1 relies on timing (granted I agree with the motivating factors) incurs more fees and can only at very best match the dividends (but possibly miss a payment) of scenario 2 , I would suggest that only a drop of %15 or more would make scenario 1 worthwhile. Whats more, if a drop was only 8% and you executed Scenario 1 you would be worse off hence my question re what sort of drop you were expecting.

Cheers,

Jamie.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 17 2009, 05:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Mark would you care to estimate if there was a drop at the levels you note by what approximate amount and percentage would it be?

My tax rate is %37.5 and I'm sitting on some large capital gains made over the last few months so if I realize those gains now (ie before having owned them for 12 months) then I will pay twice as much tax by being taxed on them at %37.5 instead of the %50 discount being applied after holding them for 12 months which would then make the tax paid %18.75.
I don't know if I'm missing something here but it seems to me that such a drop would have to be 20% plus to make it worth while for me to sell now. I do view that the market has generally overpriced most companies now based on where they are in the earnings cycle and am formulating a exit strategy but at the end of the day it all comes down to mathematics to me. Thoughts anyone?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Sep 4 2009, 06:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

I think some perspective is needed when talking about government debt.
I agree with Sean Carmody's assessment that Government debt as a percentage of GDP has been dropping for several years now and a projected peak of $315 billion in 2014 at 21% of GDP (net debt 14%) is not high by historical standards. Carmody points out that gross debt actually reached %125 of GDP just after World War II and we should be more concerned about household debt which is already over 100% of GDP.
Goverment debt as a percentage of GDP

Considering the seriousness of the GFC, government stimulus was & is called for. The public is easily scared by 'big' numbers and not likely to place the current scenario in a historical context. The sensationlist propaganda re government debt is not warranted.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Aug 30 2009, 05:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

I forgot to add that I'm cordial to the odd glass of cordial biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Aug 30 2009, 05:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Likewise Kahuna great to hear from you again.

Although I'm only a new comer to ShareScene (6 months or so) I've always found your postings informative, amusing and disproving of the idea held by many that the study of finance is bland.
I haven't gone back through all of your previous postings to check their veracity but I've found the ones I've read made sense to me and appreciated the fact you didn't sit on the fence as most do. I would be happy to pay for your newsletter keeping an open mind to their content which I may or may not choose to agree with.
I wish you all the best for such a venture.

Cheers,

Jamie.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Aug 15 2009, 03:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

I cant say I'm that happy with 15k never mind 5k. I think SPP offers should be made on a % of current shareholder's holding rather than a set amount to negate the watering down effect of a SPP. My NAB holding is currently over 300k so 15k is not significant enough to make up for this effect (granted that the effect will only be small anyway per share).
  Forum: By Share Code

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Jul 18 2009, 12:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

China is ranked on Transparency International's 'Corruption Perception' index as 2 -> 2.9 out of a possible score of 10 where 0 is highly corrupt and 10 is highly clean. If Stern Hu's position wasn't so serious, China's charges that he or other's offered bribes would be laughable. As a country with widespread ingrained corruption it would be more believable that China would be dissatisfied with someone because they failed or refused bribe officials.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: May 6 2009, 06:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Considering the latest profit result and capital raising @ $27 can someone explain to me why MQG has gone from $30.31 to $35 since Monday ? (Infact it might have almost made it there on Monday) I know it's going ex div in a week but still! Is it possible/probable that there has been some background support engineered by Macquarie or the institutions?
  Forum: By Share Code

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Apr 11 2009, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Thanks Triage.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Apr 11 2009, 06:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

'click on their name with the last post they did... and then you can select - find members posts'

Thanks Skorpian but that's my problem - finding Kahuna's name and his latest post due to the infrequency (in recent months) of his posts. I used to 'search by member' on the old version to find his latest post now I just keep paging back through this thread.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Apr 11 2009, 06:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Wasa your not alone - Kahuna please come back! Can someone please point out how I find the most recent post by a person on any forum by their name? - I used to find them by profile name but haven't yet stumbled across the same option on the updated site. icon14.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Feb 10 2009, 11:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

Any thoughts on Hastie at the moment anyone? looks attractive to me.
  Forum: By Share Code

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Jan 17 2009, 06:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

In reply to: cwjohn on Wednesday 14/01/09 09:16am

[QUOTE] ....' I will make the case for the ASX here. Currently average dividend return on market is 8%. Some are less, others are more. I would argue that those that are less are unlikely to be greatly affected whilst those that are more will be more likely to be affected. Let us assume that this dividend return drops to 4% on average. Further let us assume that taxation effect is minimal (an exhaustive analysis on its own) and this return translates to 3.5%. But of course this is not the end of the story..... '


I agree with you CW and would suggest that imputation credits would have a significant further postive effect on shares in a net yield comparison of the asset classes.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Dec 29 2008, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

In reply to: Mark M on Wednesday 03/12/08 06:56am

Do you think the Australian bank’s fundamentals, exposure, (ie the property market) environment and regulatory framework within which they operate are the same (or very similar) as the US or UK?
Sure they share the same challenges, but I understand the above factors place Australian banks in a significantly different position.
Rather than a resource threat, I would have thought that a large drop in property values coupled with high unemployment (more likely via a large broader retraction by Australian businesses not necessarily instigated primarily by resource retraction) would be a greater threat to our banks due to the possible inability of their customers to repay loans (proportionately their largest income source). If our banks then needed to recoup their investment via property divestment in a oversupplied, deflated market, then obviously they would be in serious trouble. However, even though Australian property appears to be overvalued as an asset class on fundamentals, it’s not the same league as the US property when it comes (or came to) overvaluation. The credit fuelled property bubble in the US was many times greater than that here.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Dec 29 2008, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

In reply to: crashtstdumy on Monday 29/12/08 11:46am

I'll say that again. The poll could have had extra options over 100% for those of us now geared.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Dec 29 2008, 11:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

In reply to: ShareScene.com on Monday 29/12/08 09:30am


The poll could go over have been set up with options over 100% for those of us brave or foolhardy enough (like myself) to gear in the current climate.

lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

crashtstdumy
Posted on: Nov 30 2008, 11:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 41

In reply to: Danville on Saturday 29/11/08 06:34pm

Danville,

Here's the link to the Macquarie Prime Account rates:

https://www.macquarie.com.au/emgonline/port...collateralRates

wink.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion


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