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LITHIUM, LITHIUM DISCUSSION
nipper
post Posted: Oct 14 2020, 02:32 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 14 2020, 12:37 PM

and furthermore, in world of the Lithium chemicals (not Lithium as a commodity)

https://www.globallithium.net/articles

My top nine assumptions (for better or worse) over the next five years are:

1) WA Spodumene oversupply moves to tightness then short supply within 12 to 18 months moving the right hand side of the lithium chemical cost curve up ~ 30%. Before the end of 2022, China spot pricing for battery quality lithium carbonate and hydroxide will exceed contract pricing in Korean and Japan which will increase more slowly just as it did in 2016 to 2018 returning to the mid teens. Delayed investments in chemical capacity will create a great pricing environment for all lithium chemical producers that could last beyond 2027 depending on how much longer investment is delayed.

2) Conversion capacity in Europe is starting up by 2024 with feedstock from Australia giving companies like Pilbara and Altura more partnership options. Wesfarmers and SQM breakup leaving Wesfarmers free to fully leverage their chemical skills at Mt. Holland and bringing joy to those longing for a Lithium Valley in WA. Wodgina starts back up after it becomes obvious the capacity is needed.

3) The Atacama struggles to reach 200K MT of production with less than 75% being battery quality, a far cry from the 400K MT forecast just a few years ago.

4) In Argentina, Minera Exar produces from Cauchari and begins phase II becoming Argentina's top producer, Livent finally expands but doesn't exceed 25K MT LCE until 2024. Orocobre proves building a hydroxide plant in Japan wasn't a great idea and struggles to meet tight specifications. Galaxy and POSCO remain also rans with production of less than 10K combined by 2025.

5) Lithium America Thacker Pass validates the US as a significant lithium producer by mid-decade and because the US government did not allow Ganfeng to invest in Thacker Pass, LAC is viewed as a standalone lithium power and the newest major. Standard Lithium & Lanxess validate special situation DLE in Arkansas. The word lilac continues to symbolize purity, innocence, happiness, tranquility, love and passion depending on the color but has no lasting meaning in the lithium space.

6) In 2025 lithium carbonate still provides at least 55% of the LCEs going into battery.

7) In 2025, Quebec is still touted for great potential but has zero lithium chemical production. Pallinghurst recovers from the embarrassment of their 2020 folly of throwing more money at Nemaska.

8) By 2022, at least two large multinational companies not currently involved in lithium make significant investments enabling the industry to catch up with demand by 2030.

9) The lithium assets of Albemarle change hands and the new entity becomes the clear global #1 lithium company edging out my friends at Ganfeng who still dominate China with their "ecosystem" but struggle to transplant their culture globally.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 14 2020, 12:37 PM
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the Joe Lowry podcasts on Lithium are interesting. Folksy, long, sometimes unfocused, but interesting


https://www.globallithium.net/podcast

most of the podcasts are with market participants, and the common themes seem to be around
... the current state of the lithium market and ponder when the the current oversupply situation will turn to shortage.
... thoughts on the ability of the industry to respond to the anticipated steep growth in lithium demand in the coming decade and the opportunities a global lithium battery build out will offer.
.... that a tight lithium chemicals market and price spike are coming based on the lack of investment in new hard rock and brine capacity in recent years....



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 4 2020, 04:45 PM
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In their report Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation, the scientists from the University of Augsburg in German and Lappeenranta Lahti University of Technology in Finland are quite clear about the fundamental importance of lithium. Liithium is critical to achieve a sustainable energy transition, the report concluded.

Lithium battery demand is expected to be the main cause of a supply deficit.

In 2016, there were about one billion light duty vehicles on the world's roads .... but by 2050 that figure is expected to be about 3.05 billion.

Then there is the trend to electric vehicles (EVs). The German and Finnish research team estimates by 2025 14% of all light vehicles in the world will be EVs. By 2030, that it predicted to have grown to somewhere between 40% and 50%. Yet by 2050, every light vehicle on the world's road is expected to be powered by batteries. That, the study concludes, is going to place huge strain on lithium supply.

Meanwhile, lithium ion batteries achieved a compound annual growth rate of 24% between 2015 and 2018.

Critically, automotive applications for those batteries in 2015 made up 43% of demand; yet by 2018 hybrid and electric cars were accounting for 70% of all lithium ion batteries coming on the market.

Will there be enough mines?
The German and Finnish researchers outlined just how long it takes to get new lithium mines into business. In the build up phase, so called greenfield projects must go through resource discovery, several stages of feasibility studies, facility construction and production start up. This usually takes one to two decades, the report noted.

And brine projects have their own issues. Relying on solar irradiation, the evaporation process is not constant throughout the year, the report explained.

Another problem highlighted in the report is that no one knows how much lithium is left on earth. The US Geological Survey estimates about 80 million tonnes but the authors of the report dismiss that as unrealistically high; other scenarios assume remaining stock is 41Mt, 56Mt or 73Mt.

https://smallcaps.com.au/lithium-sector-spr...y-crunch-nears/

(So, what was Musk on about?)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 01:29 PM
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Shares in Australian lithium producers have taken a hit after the Tesla Battery Day event tested investor conviction in the commodity class and among companies with exposure to the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.

Tesla founder Elon Musk and co-presenter and engineering boss Drew Baglino offered fans a series of materials, process and product targets,
QUOTE
It is important to note that there is a massive amount of lithium on earth. Lithium is not like oil .... there is a massive amount of it pretty much everywhere, Musk said, explaining that all US vehicles could be replaced with EVs using lithium sourced in America alone.

Mr Baglino added: There really is enough lithium in Nevada alone to electrify the entire US fleet.

Investors responded by offloading shares in Australian lithium producers. That followed a 7 per cent fall for Tesla shares in after hours trading.

Galaxy Resources GXY plunged 11.6 per cent to $1.29; the following day saw them touch $1.15

Orocobre ORE shares dropped 6.5 per cent and continued to slide another 2% on Thursday.

Pilbara Minerals PLS gave up 6.8 per cent and a further 4% the next day.

Novonix NVX fell sharply after reported speculation that it may be revealed as a technology provider to Tesla failed to materialise. Its shares closed on the Wed some 11.6 per cent lower at $1.29, after erratic and speculative swings when it had surged to $2.40 at open. Come Thursday it went below $1.20.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 3 2020, 12:50 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 3 2020, 12:24 PM

not true, Neometals is listed under NMT



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 3 2020, 12:24 PM
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Perth based Neometals is set to build a demonstration lithium-ion battery recycling plant in Germany as Europe continues to .. attract investment in green energy tevhnology.

Neometals and Dusseldorf-headquartered SMS Group are due to update the market about their joint venture after the passing of a July 31 deal deadline. SMS, a leading supplier of metallurgical equipment and plants, has been in an already extended exclusive due diligence process with Neometals since October after being impressed by the potential of the Australia-developed recycling technology and the performance of a pilot plant in Canada.

The interest comes as European lawmakers and others mandate recycling and industry stewardship of lithium-ion batteries that are recognised as hazardous waste and carry a storage and transport fire risk. The issue is becoming more pressing with the first wave of electric vehicle and static storage batteries due to come to the end of their life over the next few years and with a tonne of Apple batteries containing some 600 kilograms of cobalt.

The Neometals process allows the recovery of valuable battery minerals for reuse.

In its quarterly report on Friday, Neometals said SMS had successfully completed due diligence on the pilot plant performance and the two companies were now finalising definitive transaction documents for incorporated joint venture.
Neometals, which started life as a gold play, was one of the first movers in lithium in Australia. Neometals had $81.3 million in cash and no debt at June 30 as it looks build the scalable demonstration plant, starting with two tonne a day capacity, in partnership with SMS.

The memorandum of understanding between the two describes the demonstration plant operating in a hub and spoke configuration with comminution and beneficiation at SMS sites in Germany and its hydrometallurgical plant in Austria. The memorandum also contemplates SMS constructing and operating multiple commercial scale recycling plants on behalf of the venture.

Europe's strict batteries directive applies to all types of batteries and has a 45 per cent collection and recycling target by weight with reporting mandatory.
(Neo must be private ... was delisted in 2013)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 20 2020, 09:35 AM
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In Reply To: jacsar's post @ Jan 15 2020, 09:27 AM

Yo Jacsar, LKE in a trading halt.
Capital raising by any chance??
Mick




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jacsar
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 09:27 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 15 2020, 01:03 AM

One to read up on is Lake Resources LKE in Argentina using new extractive technology ...should be a good newsflow over the coming months...cheers

 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 01:03 AM
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QUOTE
... a change in sentiment has seen lithium miners share prices soar in 2020 – even though we are only 9 trading days into the year. The Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) share price is up 24%, the Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE) share price is up 34% and the Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is up 19%. Could the sector be coming back to life or is just another short-term bounce for lithium?

The lithium spot price has yet to make a positive turn despite increasingly bullish news from the electric vehicle market. Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to falter towards the end of 2019. Asian seaborne battery-grade hydroxide prices fell by 50 cents in December to less than $10 per kg (compared to $15 per kg in December 2018), while lithium carbonate prices held steady.

European and US prices fell on competitive offers and slowing market activity. Domestic Chinese prices were unmoved with limited transitions as markets are winding down ahead of the Lunar New Year on January 25.

Without improving spot prices, lithium fundamentals will not materially improve and miners will continue to be reluctant to ramp up production..




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 27 2019, 12:59 PM
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In Reply To: lugaville's post @ Nov 27 2019, 07:20 AM

I would not go as far as saying "all lithium stocks" will come back. IMHO there are many penny dread fulls in this space (also cobalt and graphite) that won't last the distance and will ultimately jump into the next hot sector to stay alive - as they have done in previous hot cycles.





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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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