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Palladium, Discussion
joules mm1
post Posted: Feb 23 2020, 05:54 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Feb 19 2020, 04:45 PM

i suspect i called that high too quickly, the COT report shows commercials want prices higher or at least chop around to give them enough new chasers for the "incontrovertible" uptrend

technically the chart called for a reversal and i suspect monday (tomorrow) will clearly show if the commercials can remain dominant, based on thin trade it's likely they do, the only question now is has there been a
significant enough sentiment swing in retail and managers to warrant a larger swing to test lower value zones

upto 8 weeks ago retail cfd were very keen to be short averaging 75-80% sell to open versus the last 3 weeks averaging 50-55% buy to open



timingcharts.com COT report



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Feb 19 2020, 04:45 PM
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have sold to open at 2750 front month contract (cfd)......looks like a blow off, requiring confirmation
considering the long positions by commercials we'll at least get a retest of todays high





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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 23 2020, 02:15 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 23 2020, 09:24 AM

looks like i am not the only one who doubts whether the squeeze on Palladium will transfer to the other PMs.

This is a quote from some opne commenting on the original Sprott article.
QUOTE
Craig, the Fed has little or no interest in palladium. That is the crucial difference. The Fed has an unlimited amount of money with which to create phony paper gold and silver. It will back-stop all of its bullion bank proxies to prevent them from failing. If the Fed has to shut down COMEX long gold/silver ala Hunt brothers, it will. Liquidation only. You can sell but you cannot go long until Fed says so. Once prices are crushed back to where Fed thinks they should be, normal paper trading will resume. If some smartalek traders try to go long again, it will be wash, rinse, repeat until Fed completely kills gold and silver market. It cares not! Fed only cares about saving their Frankenstein dollar creation and will do anything to preserve the illusion of the mighty dollar. Sorry to be so cynical and pessimistic but I have been watching this charade since 2011 and cannot see why Fed would relinquish control of gold and silver price setting mechanism that is the COMEX.


Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 23 2020, 09:24 AM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Jan 22 2020, 10:02 PM

Sprott along with others such as Ted Butler , Chuck Casey and the usual bullion sellers have all been screaming about the manipulation of PM markets via the COT reports for as long as I have been investing.
Everything they say is true, its been well documented, and the head of the CFTC, Bart Chilton admitted on his death bed that JP morgan had manipulted rhe PM markets via paper derivatives for yeas.

The problem is, that Central banks throughout the world need this fractional market manipulation to keep going to stave off a currency collapse.
So although everything points to a collapse, I have my doubts as the rulers of the world (the big commercial banks) want the status quo to keep going.
Yes they will pay the occasional fine. Yes some of their employees will be thrown under a bus. But it will keep going.
Personally, I would love to see the collapse of the rigged COT markets get killed, I would make a lot of money. The problem is at that stage, money may well be worthless.
Mick



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joules mm1
post Posted: Jan 22 2020, 10:02 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Jan 22 2020, 10:44 AM

almost ground me out my short, stop 2301 level as it's really the final level above which it's obvious the trend remains fully intact

meanwhile i stumbled across interesting read

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-magic-...et-in-2020.html

excerpt:

"Why post all those links? Just to demonstrate that I know a little bit about this stuff. As opposed to the army of "analysts" on Twitter,
I didn't just stumble onto the monthly chart last week and now feel compelled to author an opinion.
Additionally, most of this new analysis and opinion misses the most important point:
The situation in palladium is unique, and it holds the possibility of exposing...and even threatening...the entire LBMA/COMEX fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme.



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Jan 22 2020, 10:44 AM
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ene...60b1_story.html

#trade persepctive, odds are balanced for a larger rotation in palladiumonline chatter and hype surrounding the demand for palladium is fairly easy to find compared to several weeks and months ago
typically at a major swing high metals attract the most attention as "investors" decide to finally give in an join the ride
#repeatable

#patterns
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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 

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nipper
post Posted: Jan 20 2020, 07:04 AM
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QUOTE
record high

Spot palladium was 6.9 per cent higher at $US2,472.80 per ounce having earlier surged past the $US2,500 an ounce level to hit a record peak of $US2,537.06. The auto-catalyst metal was also pacing for its best week since December 2001, surging more than 16 per cent.

“This is a structural deficit market that has been brewing for years and we don’t really see an increase in supply on the horizon to quell that,” said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Palladium has constantly been breaking records, rising more than 50 per cent last year, on a sustained supply squeeze and expectations for stricter emission laws across the globe.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Dec 18 2019, 12:08 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Dec 18 2019, 01:51 AM

in the (US) overnights palladium has taken out several key levels with only the 1889 to go to complete a major swing high
not necessarily the trend high but it would def bring in larger risk:reward for longside players
same levels apply per prev post

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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Dec 18 2019, 01:51 AM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Dec 18 2019, 01:29 AM

speaks for itself

risk defined (..even when trapped!)

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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Dec 18 2019, 01:29 AM
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the phone chimed several times

booted out of BTO

opened small STO

price has broken several ratios and basic structural levels with an impulsive leg down

in the cfd the 1899 level is key

price is holding the 1905 1:1 ratio as i type this
(that's the symmetric move of the previous largest swing against the larger uptrend, by holding it confirms the trend remain intact, by breaking it offers a clue to structure)

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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
 


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