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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
kahuna1
post Posted: Today, 01:29 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Today, 10:53 AM

Confused ...
that's is where I am.

USA has actually halved .... HALVED testing in some states.If you dont test, less cases are found.
TO be nice, the white elite likely will get less hit and the poor black and browns ... hit hard.

During this pandemic in the USA tax cut upon tax cut and now another ONE .... cutting payroll tax for employers DOES NOT CRATE JOBS.Trump actually is considering a capital gains tax holiday .... to create jobs he said.
What a total load of BS.

Any attempt at even containment in the USA is a joke. States are out of money and their main source is via sales tax, most cant go and borrow and well ... the Senate blocked any and all attempts to bail out the states along with expanded testing and contact tracing.
This does not mean Trump will loose 2020. The number of white religious and actual racists in the USA cannot be underestimated.
Sending kids back to school in the USA .... is NOT going well. In fact terribly.

Giving a holiday if you have a job .... on payroll tax merely for the poor makes the income higher and you pay More tax. For companies in the USA who avoid tax and ones like Amazon pay no tax anywhere to anyone .... its a great windfall not having to shell out 6.25% in Social Security and Medicare for their employees.

Vaccine stuff is NOT going well with a mere 1,500 signed up despite very generous money to take the Moderna vaccine which sent 13.34%to hospital. Basically if they are lucky maybe end of Sept they have the 30,000 .... and then ... it needs 12 months including deliberately infecting people to see if the bloody thing works.

I wish to be positive but the ... science is alarming at side effects of just normal covid 19 on people of all ages. Grey spots in grains of 1,200 average age 44 .... similar but even younger heart MRI and tests say well over 50% that had inflamed hearts and 34% who appeared to have had a heart attack.
Either you contain ... this thing .... or NOT. USA is not even trying.

Australia is a tale of many nations with some states up around 100 days of Covid free community transmission ... NT is over that .... Tas and ACT and WA doing well. Then we have Victoria and NSW. NSW is nothing compared to VIc and over time, we will snuff this out and change. Moving forward we all hope with increased supervision of overseas travelers and mask ... when needed for some states .... in 4-6 weeks we have it under wraps again.
Lets cross our fingers.

For the USA ... well Florida never really tried testing ... NO contact tracing. Its almost halved the number of tests it does, hence the drop in USA daily numbers. Texas well its only down 33% ... Arizona 40% and Tennessee 38% . All for Trumps election.
The most despicable thing of the past, recent past was the CDC not treating syphilis suffers for 40 years, black people ... went on till 1975 ....
The blacks were told they were being treated .... they were NOT.
https://www.history.com/news/the-infamous-4...-tuskegee-study

Clinton eventually apologized for it.
Then again ... CDC claims Latinos live 5 years longer in the USA than anywhere else .... and they have the lowest healthcare in the USA. Whilst less cancer they have double the diabetes and heart issues of other races. Reality is .... no adjustment is made for the 500,000 illegals who enter each year and the same number sent back home. Basically the new ones on average are 15 years younger and fitter .... so they never .... expire on any Census or CDC measure. Basically overstating the whole USA life numbers at 78 years ... by about 3 .... so life expectancy at birth on average in the USA is 75 .... not 78 ... and it was equal to EU best 40 years ago. Of course ... massive difference in life expectancy if you have healthcare in the USA or are rich. Some counties have Monaco like life numbers around 90 and others, many many others .... poor ... often colored its age 55 average.

This however ....
Covid19 and no tests for 330 million as of the 1st March ... or 1,556 tests to be exact, now 5 months latter NO contact tracing in the USA for most, testing at 3rd world rates and well .. Trump going it is what it is ?

I am agog.

Sorry but humans ... at times ... like Rwanda where close to a million hacked each other to death with machetes ... was awful, this, virus and how to contain and control the spread has been know for 100 years. We have a repugnant dictator saying it will go away ? Its safe for kids when 100,000 got it in the last 3 weeks in the USA ? And in the meantime handing out tax breaks to his mates, and bribes to others whilst doing stuff all ?

I hope they are proud of their efforts.

Why is Australia sniffing this nations behind ? USA .... during a genocide !!
Is Morrison just a spineless toad ?




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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nipper
post Posted: Today, 10:53 AM
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The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won't Slow It Down
QUOTE
The world is confused and frightened. COVID-19 infections are on the rise across the U.S. and around the world, even in countries that once thought they had contained the virus. The outlook for the next year is at best uncertain; countries are rushing to produce and distribute vaccines at breakneck speeds, some opting to bypass critical phase trials. Meanwhile, unemployment numbers remain dizzyingly high, even as the U.S. stock market continues to defy gravity. We're headed into a global depression–a period of economic misery that few living people have experienced.
We're not talking about Hoovervilles. Today the U.S. and most of the world have a sturdy middle class. We have social safety nets that didn't exist nine decades ago. Fortunately, that's true even for developing countries. Most governments today accept a deep economic interdependence among nations created by decades of trade and investment globalization. But those expecting a so-called V-shaped economic recovery, a scenario in which vaccinemakers conquer COVID-19 and everybody goes straight back to work, or even a smooth and steady longer-term bounce-back like the one that followed the global financial crisis a decade ago, are going to be disappointed.
Let's start with the word depression. There is no commonly accepted definition of the term. That's not surprising, given how rarely we experience catastrophes of this magnitude. But there are three factors that separate a true economic depression from a mere recession. First, the impact is global. Second, it cuts deeper into livelihoods than any recession we've faced in our lifetimes. Third, its bad effects will linger longer.

A depression is not a period of uninterrupted economic contraction. There can be periods of temporary progress within it that create the appearance of recovery. The Great Depression of the 1930s began with the stock-market crash of October 1929 and continued into the early 1940s, when World War II created the basis for new growth. That period included two separate economic drops: first from 1929 to 1933, and then again from May 1937 into 1938. As in the 1930s, we're likely to see moments of expansion in this period of depression.

Depressions don't just generate ugly stats and send buyers and sellers into hibernation. They change the way we live. The Great Recession created very little lasting change. Some elected leaders around the world now speak more often about wealth inequality, but few have done much to address it. Large segments of society, particularly people who weren't already on the verge of retirement, were able to hunker down and later return to the same approach to saving and investing they practiced before the crisis. They were rewarded with a period of solid, long-lasting recovery. That's very different from the current crisis. COVID-19 fears will bring lasting changes to public attitudes toward all activities that involve crowds of people and how we work on a daily basis; it will also permanently change America's competitive position in the world and raise profound uncertainty about U.S.-China relations going forward.

In addition, political dysfunction–in the U.S. and around the world–is more severe than in 2008–2009. As the financial crisis took hold, there was no debate among Democrats and Republicans about whether the emergency was real. In 2020, there is little consensus on what to do and how to do it.

Return to our definition of an economic depression. First, the current slowdown is without doubt global. Most postwar U.S. recessions have limited their worst effects to the domestic economy. But most were the result of domestic inflation or a tightening of national credit markets. That is not the case with COVID-19 and the current global slowdown. This is a synchronized crisis, and just as the relentless rise of China over the past four decades has lifted many boats in richer and poorer countries alike, so slowdowns in China, the U.S. and Europe will have global impact on our globalized world. This coronavirus has ravaged every major economy in the world. Its impact is felt everywhere.

Social safety nets are now being tested as never before. Some will break. Health care systems, particularly in poorer countries, are already buckling under the strain. As they struggle to cope with the human toll of this slowdown, governments will default on debt. For all these reasons, middle-income and developing countries are especially vulnerable, but the debt burdens and likelihood of defaults will pressure the entire global financial system.

The second defining characteristic of a depression: the economic impact of COVID-19 will cut deeper than any recession in living memory. The monetary-policy report submitted to Congress in June by the Federal Reserve noted that the "severity, scope, and speed of the ensuing downturn in economic activity have been significantly worse than any recession since World War II." Payroll employment fell an unprecedented 22 million in March and April before adding back 7.5 million jobs in May and June. The unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% in April, the highest level since the Great Depression, before recovering to 11.1% in June.

Now for the bad news. First, that data reflects conditions from mid-June–before the most recent spike in COVID-19 cases across the American South and West that has caused at least a temporary stall in the recovery. Signs of corporate economic distress are mounting. And second and third waves of coronavirus infections could throw many more people out of work. In short, there will be no sustainable recovery until the virus is fully contained. That probably means a vaccine. Even when there is a vaccine, it won't flip a switch bringing the world back to normal. Some will have the vaccine before others do. Some who are offered it won't take it. Recovery will come by fits and starts.

Leaving aside the unique problem of measuring the unemployment rate during a once-in-a-century pandemic, there is a more important warning sign here. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report also noted that the share of job losses classified as "temporary" fell from 88.6% in April and May to 78.6% in June. In other words, a larger percentage of the workers stuck in that (still historically high) unemployment rate won't have jobs to return to. That trend is likely to last because COVID-19 will force many more businesses to close their doors for good, and governments won't keep writing bailout checks indefinitely.

These factors lead us toward the third definition of depression: a slowdown that will last longer than recessions of the past 80 years. The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the unemployment rate will remain stubbornly high for the next decade, and economic output will remain depressed for years unless changes are made to the way government taxes and spends. Those sorts of changes will depend on broad recognition that emergency measures won't be nearly enough to restore the U.S. economy to health. What's true in the U.S. will be true everywhere else.

In the early days of the pandemic, the G-7 governments and their central banks moved quickly to support workers and businesses with income support and credit lines in hopes of tiding them over until they could safely resume normal business. The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan threw out the rule book to add unprecedented support to ensure markets could continue to function.

This liquidity support (along with optimism about a vaccine) has boosted financial markets and may well continue to elevate stocks. But this financial bridge isn't big enough to span the gap from past to future economic vitality because COVID-19 has created a crisis for the real economy. Both supply and demand have sustained sudden and deep damage. And it will become progressively harder politically to impose second and third lockdowns.

That's why the shape of economic recovery will be a kind of ugly "jagged swoosh," a shape that reflects a yearslong stop-start recovery process and a global economy that will inevitably reopen in stages until a vaccine is in place and distributed globally.

What could world leaders do to shorten this global depression? They could resist the urge to tell their people that brighter days are just around the corner. People need leaders to take responsibility for tough decisions.

From a practical standpoint, governments could do more to coordinate virus-containment plans. But they could also prepare for the need to help the poorest and hardest-hit countries avoid the worst of the virus and the economic contraction by investing the sums needed to keep these countries on their feet. Today's lack of international leadership makes matters worse. If COVID-19 can teach world leaders the value of working together to avoid common catastrophes, future global emergencies will be that much easier to manage for the good of all. Unfortunately, that's not the path we're on.

https://time.com/5876606/economic-depression-coronavirus/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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plastic
post Posted: Aug 9 2020, 05:57 PM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Aug 9 2020, 04:24 PM

Its a suspicious observation to make but Covid is reaching its zenith just before the presidential election. One cannot discount the concept of political and economic gains being harvested by an elite cabal from organized rebellion along racial lines and the feeling of inequality amongst the working classes. Especially the youth. An entire generation or more have been marginalized by the quackery of free market paradigms making everything alright. The foment we see now in the US lies just beneath the surface in many other countries. Indeed we saw it in France.

Any student of the French Revolution will tell you the similarities between France then and America now are not that large. Its so easy to imagine Hilary telling them all to eat cake instead. In Nancy's case it would be ice cream.

If America really was set up to be the battle ground of ideologies to take civilization forward then it is quite a rational notion to imagine that recent activities including Covid lockdowns is an attempt to overthrow the current government.

So, how will it end?

With name calling, cat fights and bigotry out the other end of the wazoo for some.

Maybe with a half assed vaccine put to the market but more likely with an election that Trump wins followed by military intervention in the trouble spots and the passing of George Soros. I mean its amazing he's still around now. And a whole new, economic, social and political paradigm.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
plastic
post Posted: Aug 9 2020, 04:24 PM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Aug 9 2020, 04:08 PM

The PSA test for prostate cancer is renown for its false positives. If Covid is so similar to the flu, or even a head cold, its not out of the realm of plausibility that all the tests being done are yielding incorrect positives.
Might explain the disparity between nations on outcomes. For example Japan and Sth. Korea versus USA.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 9 2020, 04:15 PM
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For some ...
Its more a racist thing in the USA ....

It hits the poor .... the non whites and well .. they for some are even worth less. Seems to excite others I can see. For myself its a disgust that some people are this way. Lets destroy healthcare is Trumps latest move. Poor .... black brown ... whites ...

Imagine how sick your mind has to be to to think that way, or not even be able to work out 500,000 deaths is more than 30,000.

Of course some is unavoidable, and Canada having 2,000 cases a week and USA 500,000 .... USA is 10 times the size .... so 480,000 excess cases, and USA is jumping off a likely cliff sending 40 million kids back to school.
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Attached File  RACIST_covid_Leopold_table1.jpg ( 82.18K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
plastic
post Posted: Aug 9 2020, 04:08 PM
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A similarity is that both have a 98% recovery rate.
It's even possible Covid is a genetic mishmash of corona and influenza or other virii. HIV according to one doctor I know.
So the drill is, you get sick and then recover. Unless you don't. What's new?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

QUOTE
[b]What is the difference between Influenza (Flu) and COVID-19?[/b]
Influenza (Flu) and COVID-19 are both contagious respiratory illnesses, but they are caused by different viruses. COVID-19 is caused by infection with a new coronavirus (called SARS-CoV-2) and flu is caused by infection with influenza viruses. Because some of the symptoms of flu and COVID-19 are similar, it may be hard to tell the difference between them based on symptoms alone, and testing may be needed to help confirm a diagnosis. Flu and COVID-19 share many characteristics, but there are some key differences between the two.




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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 

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kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 9 2020, 03:47 PM
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OH and Israel ...

It sent the kids back when ? Mid May 2020 .... Cases were nearly ZERO ... USA is far from that.
Numerous scientific papers on COVID19 in children and their ability to spread it, in fact super spread it as most dont show even symptoms.

Look hard and long at the chart below. USA is shocking now, kids back .... tomorrow and next 10 days ....

I wish it was NOT so. But ... slashing testing as Trump has done to claim cases are falling ? Now add some more petrol to the COVID19 fire.

Of course, for some, even understanding value of human life is beyond them. I note Barron Trumps school will not be going back.
 




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 9 2020, 03:40 PM
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Sociopaths and Psychopaths ... and severely mentally disturbed

have tells ....

A lack of compassion, remorse, empathy is just one of the 7 traits.

Comparing flu deaths in the USA which in a bad year of 30,000 to covid 19 which in 4 months has hit 200,000 USA deaths likely total .. and its at 500,000 or so infections a week so 10,000 more deaths a week for 30 weeks, grand total 500,000- Americans. Is 30,000 dead is the same as 500,000 ? And then add long term damage to lungs, brain and heart and liver of say 2.5 million more. Is that the same ?

In deeply disturbed mind, they are merely insects, ants of some sub species.

Since some like Trump continue NOT to even acknowledge its an issue and this week yet again claimed it will go away.He actually slashed testing and kids go back to school in the USA Monday. Science shows those under 18 get COVID19 but on the main dont show symptoms and shrug it off.
Israel got their covid under control and sent kids back in May 2020. Cases exploded, went up over 30 fold. It again had to shut down.
USA leadership has ruled that out. Insects ... back to work ,,,, your unemployment is cut ...

In fact Trump just announced he intends to remove Social security which is pensions .... people paid into all their lives and also abolish Medicare in the USA. During a pandemic ? That's healthcare for those who are retired, for those who are disabled.
For like minds, if one can call them that, they rejoice.

For most, not in those fringes of personality ... human life has value.

For those on the fringes, their is no understanding even of these basic concepts.

What sort of a genocidal maniac would slash testing in some states 33% in the last 10 days to send kids back to school ?
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Attached File  Testing_South_8th_aug_2020_.png ( 51.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
plastic
post Posted: Aug 9 2020, 03:11 PM
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When it comes to some things it pays to listen to the experts. If I blew numbers and opinions out of my ass all day long, hating, abusing and trolling people along the way I reckon I would look like a right twat.

And the most basic of all rules is respect the concept of personal space. Don't need an app to have manners.

Check out the video.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/artic...jectid=12354969

QUOTE
Professor Anne Kelso, from the World Health Organisation, was right on the money when she said it would be a respiratory illness that originated from animals somewhere in Asia.

"If we're talking about a new avian influenza then the most likely thing is it'll come from somewhere in Asia," she told viewers.

"There are very high densities of bird populations living closely to humans, mixing with other animals which can also be infected with flu viruses like pigs.

"This can then spread like wildfire because it's a respiratory virus."




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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 8 2020, 01:35 PM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Aug 8 2020, 01:16 PM

....
A normal response may have been to acknowledge at a minimum the issue and deaths.
Sadly your even unable to do that.





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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
 


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