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Copper, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Jun 2 2020, 09:43 PM
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Copper trading in New York jumped more than 2% to $2.4775 a pound ($5,460 a tonne) in afternoon trade, bring the bellwether metals gains since its mid-March low to more than 25%.

CNBC reports Bank of America analysts increased their price forecast for copper in 2020 by 5.4% to $5,620 per tonne.

Given its widespread use in industry and construction, the expected contraction in the global economy this year could translate into double digit declines in copper consumption according to BofA:

However, they questioned whether falls in purchases to such a degree were realistic, and suggested that while Western economies may not completely mirror the rebound seen in China, the easing of lockdown measures would likely facilitate a rise in raw material purchases around the world.

QUOTE
We also note that the current recession is different to the usual downturns on various other metrics: the epicenter is in services, not manufacturing; governments are gearing up to implement remarkable fiscal stimulus packages, reflected in Chinas NPC and Europes Next Generation EU initiative, the note read




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 7 2019, 02:51 PM
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US payrolls light fire under copper price
Frik Els | December 6, 2019
QUOTE
The price of copper surged on Friday after reports showed the US economy is in robust health on the back of strong payroll numbers – the best reading since January – and progress is being made in trade talks with China.

Trade worries have dogged copper price bulls for the better part of a year, and China is vital to overall demand for the metal widely used in the manufacturing, construction, transportation and electricity sectors.

In afternoon trading in New York, copper for delivery in March continued to climb – hitting $2.7535 a pound ($6,070 a tonne), up 3.4% on the day and the highest since July.


QUOTE
The highest forecast for the average price in Q4 2020 is $7,000 per tonne ($3.17/lb) from Goldman Sachs (+16.7% from current price), while five investment banks and research firms, including JP Morgan and Commerzbank, see copper falling back below $6,000 a tonne. The median forecast for Q4 2020 is $6,255.

read more - https://www.mining.com/us-payrolls-light-fi...r-copper-price/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 7 2019, 02:46 PM
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4 charts that say this time the copper price surge could last
Frik Els | December 6, 2019
https://www.mining.com/4-charts-that-say-th...rge-could-last/
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 3 2019, 11:50 AM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/11/01/cop...-market-update/
QUOTE
Conclusion

In the copper market at present, speculators are very much focused on the here and the now. Fears over trade, economic growth and political instability, have taken centre stage for the time being. These concerns have led to pessimism and lower levels of investor interest generally in the copper sector. However as we know, things can change very quickly. Investor sentiment can change rapidly, particularly if a trade deal between the US and China can be reached.

From a bigger picture perspective, the outlook for copper remains positive. There are big question marks over the supply-side’s capacity to meet burgeoning demand. Of course, higher prices will ultimately flush out new sources of supply, but at the present time flat prices are hampering the development of new supply. Current circumstances have the potential to delay the onset of new copper mines, thus making the supply gap even worse.

For savvy investors, now is likely an appropriate time to be evaluating copper equities.

- Gavin Wendt

... interesting graphs on supply/ demand and inventories



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 26 2019, 01:54 PM
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Glencore cuts copper guidance, to halt some Congo operations
Cecilia Jamasmie | October 25, 2019 |
QUOTE
Miner and commodities trader Glencore (LON:GLEN) reported on Friday a 4% fall in copper output so far this year and cut 2019 guidance as it readies to halt some operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Switzerland-based company said that full-year copper production, excluding output from its African mines, will be around 1.010 million tonnes. Guidance for its copper operations in DRC and Zambia was around 375,000 tonnes, making a total of just under 1.4 million tonnes versus the 1.45 million previously anticipated.

read more - https://www.mining.com/glencore-cuts-copper...ngo-operations/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 9 2019, 12:40 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 5 2019, 03:55 PM

The $$ impact from previous post now evident
Protests halt top copper mines in Peru from shipping, cut off supplies
Reuters | August 8, 2019
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Anti-mining protests in Peru have held up about $400 million in copper exports from some of the country’s top mines and blocked supplies from reaching their operations for nearly three weeks, the manager of port operator Tisur said on Thursday.

Four copper mines – Freeport-McMoRan Inc’s Cerro Verde deposit, MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas, Glencore PLC’s Antapaccay and Hudbay Mineral’s Constancia – have been unable to ship copper concentrates from Matarani to destinations in Asia and Europe since July 18, said Gabriel Monge, manager of port operator Terminal Internacional del Sur (Tisur).

Last year, the four mines – led by the country’s top producer, Cerro Verde – churned out about 1.2 million tonnes, or about half of total copper output from Peru, the world’s No. 2 supplier.

https://www.mining.com/web/protests-halt-to...t-off-supplies/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 5 2019, 03:55 PM
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Peru is the world’s second-largest copper producer. - the following protests may impact supply

QUOTE
LIMA (Reuters) - Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra on Sunday authorized the army to maintain order at a key mining port, a day before an expected new round of protests against Southern Copper Corp’s $1.4-billion proposed Tia Maria mine.


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Matarani is used by major copper miners such as Cerro Verde, Antapaccay de Glencore and Constancia de Hudbay, according to the private Peruvian Association of Maritime Agents.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-sou...t-idUSKCN1UU0OJ



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 1 2019, 10:32 AM
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Posts: 6,791
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QUOTE
Mining and commodities giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) warned on Wednesday that it would take a $350 million hit when reporting first-half earnings next week, due to its African copper business failing to meet expected operational performance and an ongoing slump in cobalt prices.

The Swiss company said that setbacks at its mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia caused copper production to fall 5% to 663,000 tonnes in the six months leading up to June.

Production was also affected by the recent closure of two “uneconomic” shafts at its Mopani Copper Mines business in Zambia and a landslide at a copper and cobalt mine in Congo, run by its subsidiary Katanga Mining, which killed more than 40 illegal miners.

As a result, Glencore signalled it is likely to cut the target for copper production this year, adding that it would reveal a detailed turnaround plan for the division next week.

read more - https://www.mining.com/glencore-warns-of-35...lt-prices-rout/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 15 2019, 03:35 PM
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QUOTE
An eight-year legal fight over an old BHP copper discovery culminated on Saturday when a World Bank tribunal ruled that Pakistan must pay Tethyan Copper Company Pty Ltd damages worth $US5.84 billion ($8.3 billion)


Roughly $1bil per each year of the legal stoush! Lucky stiffs biggrin.gif BHP and Mincor missed out big time

QUOTE
Perth-based Tethyan was once ASX-listed, and remains incorporated and domiciled through the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

BHP largely exited Tethyan when it struck a joint venture agreement with ASX-listed Mincor in 2000.

Mincor demerged Tethyan in 2003, at which time it became an ASX-listed company for three years until it was acquired by multinational miner Antofagasta.

Tethyan is now owned by Antofagasta and Canada's Barrick Gold, and the current owners have inherited a legal agreement over Reko Diq that was struck between BHP and the Balochistan Government in 1993, known as the ''Chagai Hills Exploration Joint Venture Agreement''.

read more - https://www.afr.com/business/mining/austral...20190714-p526zz



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jun 28 2019, 12:03 PM
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At least 41 artisanal miners killed in Glencore’s Congo mine collapse
Reuters | June 27, 2019 | 9:08 am Top Companies Africa Cobalt Copper
https://www.mining.com/web/at-least-36-kill...-mine-in-congo/

Glencore shares fall after DRC mine collapse



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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