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Trading should cease prior to opening Monday for 14 days
post Posted: Mar 27 2020, 10:31 AM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Mar 27 2020, 09:45 AM

They would hardly say anything else, seeing as they make money from trades on the NASDAQ.
Not what I would categorise as an unbiased opinion.

sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
post Posted: Mar 27 2020, 09:45 AM
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Closing Markets is Not the Answer

What did Uncle Mel do to us?
post Posted: Mar 26 2020, 09:28 AM
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With all this stimulus going in to prop the economy up and maybe more to come, I am beginning to have concerns for inflation.

If inflation takes a hold, banks will do what banks do and put up the interest rates.

Where to then for the property market?

What did Uncle Mel do to us?
post Posted: Mar 24 2020, 02:26 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Mar 23 2020, 08:17 AM

I would respectfully disagree with your sentiment.
The only way US financial systems can even begin to their clean up their toxic fiat based currency systems is for lots of their big poxy derivative filled debt laden behemoths go into chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The shareholders will take a bath, and hopefully the grossly overpaid execs will be much poorer.

sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
post Posted: Mar 23 2020, 08:17 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Mar 22 2020, 12:14 PM


USA virus numbers at about 5 am started being LOWERED by massive amounts.The count got up to 39,000 infected then one by one sites ... dropped 8,000 or so.Someone can explain it ... latter.I did take screen shots and raw data in some states of their FACTUAL numbers got multiplied by 80% .... Rhode Island 83 cases ... blink it was 66 on onse site.
Similar and shall we say disturbing crap.

This aside.
USA futures and o/n derivatives opened.
That the numbers were 32k instead of an assured 40 k or 39k ... 2 hours prior ...
USA futures ...
DID not open LOCKED limit 5% down.

They took a mere 3 mins 53 seconds due to the ABOVE I suspect tinkering with NUMBERS which is ... what it is.

They now are LOCKED 5% DOWN .... FOR NOW
whilst fluid and news may change things, I suspect they DO not rise.

Not till the limit is expanded to 13% and since I suspect many in America were watching as numbers got fudged ... in real time, possibly to not have the population panic, then again 38% of FOX news people are not even at all concerned and that the most popular news source ... this is about the Keptocracy and Oligarchy people rather than the masses.

Whilst I may disagree as is my right with PM Potato head here and his 6-12 month timeline and whilst reading the riot act to get idiots to STAY isolated until ... a bloody vaccine happens and this will be a doosey on the ASX .... if they are stupid enuf to open after that 253 seconds to loose 5% so 15% in a straight line ... for the USA side ....

Only time will tell.
Its only money.
Stay safe ... tell someone you love them ...
Call someone isolated and needing a call.

The rest will be what it will be.
Its not the end of the world ....

YET ... we Humans are actually pretty smart and hope is around the corner

Take care
Mark K

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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post Posted: Mar 22 2020, 12:14 PM
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Hi Pendragon ...
yes a lot of ... well BS with numbers. Chinese, YEP ... South Korea for ages a fictional reporting of things. Whilst they did well, not suggesting anything else, that deaths stayed at the same with 7,500- cases and a lot serious for 72 hours .... speaks volumes verses likely reality.

USA ... denial ... delusional denial by dictator who defeated it ... gave himself 10/10 and well ... seems to be picking a fight with the Chinese even now whilst blaming Obama for shortages and he has been dictator for life since ... well forever.
Markets not functioning at all. DIRE and extreme lack of liquidity .... main function to provide say capital raising venue ... forget trying to cap raise in the next 2 weeks unless your insane !!

With extreme regret USA cases likely 200% of Friday 4 pm NY time when the derivatives and overnight trading open just prior to our own.
We announced a decent on paper stimulus ... but I point out virtually NONE of the promised bush-fire money has been paid 3 months latter. NEARLY NONE> and if you fill out the 17 pages it gets sent back again ... and again ... asking for things already in the 17 pages ...

This said .... USA lets say futures I suspect open locked limit 5% down.
We may initially open UP ... after stimulus ... as Asia opens ... looking at the obvious USA whilst NOT trading and in Limob is likely 13% if NOT 20% down ... will not be well behaved.
Who the hell knows .... maybe they keep it open and it stops prior to 13% next limit being hit.

USA has bugger all to do with our economy ... China which is passed the worst ... so too South Korea largest export destinations. Hong Kong same ... Maybe we when they are cleared let them visit and BARR the USA till it gets a handle on how many .... which will be 14 days and then wait another 90 days ... and then seriously consider if we let any of the leaders back into Australia EVER ... or at any time. Political and Business ones as well since its a non functional democracy and oligarchy or Kleptocracy at best.

I cry for the common Yank whom we love and to see the worlds third richest man, Bloomberg, Most boring ... run for president and spend 860 million USD a mere 1.3 billion AUD to block any and all tax rises and in the process also any hope of Universal cheap medical care which was ... called communist ... and socialist ... are we ? ALL commies here ? Did Bloomberg even get a TShirt for his 1.3 billion ? He did however wipe out Warren who wanted tax rises then Sanders ... so mission accomplished.

Worst for the poor in the USA right now ... 500k homeless ... 1.5 million living out of cars .... 11 million undocumented and all with zero healthcare .... they are sadly irrelevant at MAra Lago and Trump resorts ...

Does Fake orange tan protect from CV19 ? Thats a topic ... which Trump seems to believe works. It seems even he lied about being tested, because, well the procedure is sticking a thing 15 cm long up your nose and swiping the back of your throat, and he was unable to describe even that when asked.
Fake news. ... all fake news. ... it is time to distance and quarantine from stupidity !! Close the bloody MARKETS.

Not money markets and NOT FX .... they will function and be seen over by the RBA as always ... just the rest.

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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post Posted: Mar 22 2020, 11:43 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Mar 21 2020, 05:16 PM


In total agreement with you about a trading halt for a time. Should have been done weeks ago.

As for China Coronavirus figures. Methinks they may not pass the pub test.

Almost 99% recovery rates in all Chinese cities and almost no new cases throughout China. This in stark contrast with the rest of the world where recovery rates are much slower and much less than in China.
At this stage recovery rates in Germany and USA are only 1%. Spain and Italy are much better at about 10%. This is nothing compared to the miracle in China where almost 100% of cases recover.

Better case management or Chinese government controlled media?

When they write the history of this pandemic, the Chinese Communist government should rightly be humiliated for its handling of the outbreak. Shame shame shame.

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post Posted: Mar 21 2020, 08:04 PM
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Just to correct an error ....
I relied upon someone else ... which is a mistake there have been around 40 total shutdowns of the USA exchanges and ...

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) closed at
the outbreak of World War I. Exchange officials maintained that the threat of
European liquidation of US securities justified a suspension in trading as a
circuit-breaker. However, the exchange remained shuttered for more than four
months, from July 31, 1914 to December 12, 1914.

Other reasons 9/11 was till it opened on the 16th ? ... a few days ... various other things from blizzards to obscure reasons ... to blackouts and once via Presidential order I believe in 1969. Something landed on the moon. Hurricanes ... and storms spring to mind as well. In 2010 ... a flash crash or have you forgotten ?

An aside. But ... well the WW2 thing was actually WW1 ... and the trading event was not stopped for days but MONTHS. USA media even normally very factual sources, not to be relied upon. My mistake

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
post Posted: Mar 21 2020, 05:16 PM
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Markets should PAUSE and shut down.


Having been around for a while, and a fossil in many ways, over the past 37 years involved in markets and most currencies, bonds, equities and commodities at various times, not much is new.

Famous last words. Often things I know are worthless or worth 1% of the heights they reach is not uncommon. Conversely, in times of panic and this time terror, the opposite occurs. People, seeing 50% of value lost illogically panic and sell. Other times when its a worthless asset the stop loss is the correct action to preserve capital.

Right now, either society ends, markets and economies crumble or they DO NOT.

The Billy Joel song, as a former head of trading for one of the worlds largest banks “I go to Extremes” springs to mind at times like this. The words, “so high and so low, with no in between” is so true of most activities on markets today where idiot savant trading dominates.

“I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.”
― Edgar Allan Poe

The CASE and precedent for hitting the pause button on all trading and equity markets is CLEAR.

ALL TRADING OF EQUITES AND DERIVATIVES, Futures. options and others in G20 Markets needs to cease totally prior to Sydney opening and USA market futures opening Monday Morning.

An opinion, but actually a no brainier. As one of few with 35 plus years experience still active in most markets from currencies to bonds and equities to commodities, to see for instance a 10% range in 8 hours on an equity Index USA trading representing 20 trillion or so, is and at best alarming.

Markets have stopped and all trading in Equities, derivatives and futures, options paused post 9/11 . It did so to stop irrational fear. IT also paused for some time after the Bombing of Pearl Harbour late 1941.

This time. It should not even BE a question.

USA sadly dropped the ball declaring the virus defeated at 15 cases. Denied it would hit them due to USA being, well, better or the best in the world is delusional in the extreme.

USA did NOT test in any significant numbers even till early March 2020. CDCC reported a mere 8,000 samples or less, and each sample being 2-3 per person its likely a mere 2,000 actual people were tested up till 10 days ago.

To ramp up to say EU test levels, takes time. CDC produces daily totals and these show snails pace verses what to reach say the 10,000 a day a nation less than 10% the size USA is appears where they are NOW.

Cases have risen, and PANIC … is not even close to what is about to occur.

USA as I type is 19,700 cases for 329 million people. Its testing at about 10% the level it needs to for it to identify those infected and isolate them.

USA equity futures open at 9 am Monday morning if allowed. They have limits at 5% where trading pauses in overnight trading, then at 13% and then at 20% where all trading for a day ceases.

It is sadly and without much doubt, that the reported cases in the USA rise dramatically even by Monday morning and it opens LIMIT down 5%, when trading resumes at 9.30 am NY time or about then it opens LOCKED limit down 13% and when it resumes after a pause, likely it sadly hits 20% down and all trading ceases. NO actual trades will occur in reality. It will go locked limit …

Would it not be prudent to HIT pause …. over illogical, if not idiotic fear ? Prior to this occurring and if allowed, its possible to do the same thing the next day.

Essentially end of everything. Possibly forever for some companies in the panic. They literally cease to exist as idiotic conditions exist.

Irrational fear, in fact, hysteria that has replaced denial is virtually guaranteed. Its actually not unexpected. It seems they are in threat, their very lives according to the doomsday preppers society.

There is HOPE …

This FEAR, is NOT logical. Whilst understandable as a threat to your life, all be it minor if precautions are taken, THIS WILL PASS.

Comparing it to Spanish flu where even oxygen in hospital was not available nor ventilators is, well … absurd. Penicillin not invented or in use for 25 years to stave off infections ….

Whilst if NOT stopped spreading, CV19, the virus can be if allowed and not controlled, deadly. We KNOW what to DO.

PAUSE … deep breath.

This is one Tracker …. Johns Hopkins …

And this another,

Now after a lot of deep breathing, lets have a look.

China …. 80,000 cases … sadly 3,200 deaths and still some serious cases, 75,000 out of 80,000 cases, CURED or sadly they passed away.

Virtually NO new cases for a nation of 1.3 billion people.

This will of course matter bugger all for the MAYHEM about to hit. USA and its leadership, which has 33% with pathetic health-cover or NONE will be the focus of the next weeks. USA USA USA …

So whilst it took TIME for China to attack the virus, massive testing and isolation/ social distancing WORKS.

Again likely forgotten in the next 2-3 weeks as the financial markets implode as the USA, as it always does, believes its the centre of the Universe.

Lets go to Hong Kong, hit by SARs MERs Avian Flu and Swine Flue issues in the past, with 7 million plus and in close proximity to China, its had a mere 256 cases identified.

Are you getting any sanity back into your perspective ?

DOES … now alerted to the threat, social distancing WORK ?

Of course.

Talk of all activity ceasing forever ? A common topic of the media. Did it happen in post 2003 Sars era ? Or other pandemics ? OF course not stupid.

It will NOT stop what will be likely an implosion IF ALLOWED … markets to open Monday.

USA will and is likely to go troppo.

Its sad numbers, eventually assured with extreme respect and regret to rise and rise till testing reaches around 10 times the current levels at say 100,000 plus tests a day.

Time and time again, idiotic if NOT absurd in the extreme on one side of ignoring a virus replaced with, which is normal doomsday preppers and idiots who have predicted the end of the world time and time again. The weird fascination I have for those shows and low tolerance for their reasoning is now replaced by, a real life event, that, well, if you DONT social distance or ignore a bloody virus that spreads, STUPID people prevail.

Deep breath. If someone comes inside your NOW personal space of 1.5 metres, for NOW, they are to be sprayed with bleach in the face to stop them.

All this aside, the absurdity of what is about to occur and USA is going to go from a slight unease and in some cases terror to total mayhem in the coming week. All of it based, upon little logic.

If sadly the USA hits 100,000 cases identified its a tragedy, much like Italy which is 25% the population and has hit 47,000 cases. Of course one can only wish it was not so and express our deepest sympathies for those lost and well wishes and prayers for those still fighting it.

We, as a species, as opposed to looking with some cynicism via USA media and cable news as the Chinese built hospitals and enforce quarantine and massive testing, many nations, ones already well versed in previous virus events did much the same.

Singapore revealed how far it could track visitors and citizens and anyone, anywhere, via CCTV and mobile signal was identified, read the riot act quarantined and locked away in threat of massive fines and jail and they had, 385 cases despite being a travel hub with about of 5 million locals. I wish, USA had similar outcomes and being 60 times the size, the 20,000 mark will be passed and exceeded in hours.

IT WORKS …. Social distancing.

All forgotten.

MARKETS must close and SHOULD not open Monday.

Predicting LOGIC … I suspect NO trading actually occurs in USA markets EVEN if they remain OPEN …. it locks LIMIT down at 5% …. Trading stops … no trades actually occur … between zero and down 5% … trading resumes and it LOCKS limit 13% .. DOWN … no trading occurs between 5% down and 13% down and reopens after a pause and likely 30,000 USA CV19 cases identified and all sanity and logic left in dust after some, with margin, loose everything and any exit NEEDED …. so the 20% limit down … cascaded into with NO real trading or exit seen. Repeat the next day ….

I will go beyond this. Stupidity and non factual events or actions have one thing that cures them. TIME or Scientific evidence and logic.

Obviously in panic, we ignore … the latter.

CURES, Vaccines and ANTI Viral Agents.

A cure, or treatments, some seem to work and some do not.

Why say Italy has been hit so hard, until scientific data and peer reviewed factual numbers are presented, speculation is the only observation. Sadly, kissing on the cheek on greeting and leaving of friends, not a good outcome and possibly why the initial viral load seems so high along with the spread.

Vaccines are great.

Right now, we NEVER have cured any virus or EVER produced a vaccine.

No Smallpox …. was never defeated.


Hepatitis C

Chicken pox

the list goes ON and on.

Nope we are never ever going to create a vaccine or so it seems.

How astoundingly stupid and absurd.

A vaccine works one hopes protects at close to 100% of the time and sometimes lower, but it stops the spread and human to human transmission. It also lowers the severity of the the thing in the case of the Flu if you get a different strain you will likely get it less severe.

Suggesting even with a straight face that a vaccine will not be developed is absurd. INSANE and in the Swine flu version it took some time to identify and map the thing, 10 times as long as it did in 2020, and when deployed it took a mere 4 months with technology to test and wheel out a vaccine. That was 2009. Not with double if not triple the technology and this time being conservative 10 times as many resources thrown at the task.

Do you really think, whilst CV19 related to MERS and SARS not swine flu, that it will take some time beyond 12 months ? It feels that way listening to some idiots they wheel out.

TIME will not be kind to these types.

Social distancing and isolation WORKS all by itself. Let alone a vaccine with 95-99.99% effectiveness and the Chinese with no reason to lie, and every reason NOT to, say they have one almost ready, limited testing and they have 9 at least they have been testing, ready if needed April.

Add to this 3 if not 5 others in very early stages testing a vaccine, IF NEEDED … which with my new personal space and not kissing random girls who beg me walking down the street, I have to say no for now !!

Whilst a lot of rubbish has prevailed via various media outlets. It is 2020.

NOT 1920.

That's a vaccine.


An Anti Viral is something given to lessen the severity of say Flu such as Tami Flu and its very big brother one gets in hospital which dumb it down in most cases.

NEW Flu and CV19 … we had and have no natural immunity unless your one of the very few who got SARs or MERS and MAY have some limited immunity one might expect to CV19 which is 85% of the same type of thing.

Well …. we humans, in 2020, have actually a long list of things for other viral infections. Anti viral agents, if they get out of hand. Some for bloody infections that actually are also very good at limiting and in some cases totally eradicating a virus if not putting it into suspended animation.

Cervical cancer, eventually, a virus hopefully will be a thing of the past. But a thing like Hepatitis C, HCV is a virus which can be eradicated in 2020. HIV a death sentence in 2020, well, suspended animation and the PREP that limits spread WORKS.

One and on one could go.

I noted, Japanese trug with some testing in China seems to work with CV19. So too a malaria drug in combination with a common penicillin works even better.

Astounding and encouraging.

Extremely. In the meantime, USA and doom and gloom types will prevail.

Here is a decent U tube

It missed many of the things that appear to hold promise and astoundingly quickly. I personally was not expecting any Anti Viral till after a vaccine which given the scope, and 20 massive drug makers in the vaccine side and some with multiple teams for the bigger ones working on a vaccine, its more than 30 working that side and if anything, 100 or more working on existing anti viral agents or new ones to slow the severity down.

Just a few links

Decent up to date as of now

Possible … but early stages …

A few more with promise

All this …

sadly likely forgotten in the mayhem if MONDAY trading resumes.

Myopic self interested focus on USA totals infected and a real fear, for ones well being and this has crossed and will cross into hysteria.

Australia, CAN and should act alone as should EU markets should USA not.

If you have read this far, and I am sure some will disagree, some with vigour.

I am merely a person who has faced this type of event, all be it not the same, but not unlike where fear and logic needs time to take hold.

Interviewing a cafe owner who YES needs help as others hit initially, and government SHOULD act and not be stingy with 5% of GDP directly focused not a mere 1% Australia has seen.

Most say Cafe's have seasonal periods and if 3 weeks of 10% customers, in and when we have it contained, well identified, and virtually no new cases LIKE Hong Kong, trade will resume, not at 100% but 50% in a few weeks, then at 75% in 8 weeks. Some things, like airlines, and confidence have taken a hit, but if your suggesting the end of the world, again, we may change, learn a lesson and do things like being more prepared and social norms more careful, life WILL go on. Or for doomsday preppers gulping their cordial down now … it ends.

We are an island and most nations the same. Whilst tourism takes a hit, and reality and short term say 3 month impact occur, we have 10 million plus travelling overseas a year and a mere 8.5 million visitors. Things will return to some normality with I suspect more domestic tourism and less visitors when our borders open again.

Obviously, I have NO idea how this unfolds. I do hold hope and the fact that governments NEED to step in and fill the gaps for a while is astounding our Banks basically gave up 25% likely of their profits …. PRIOR to our bloody government acting is a disgrace. We have been running one of the tightest fiscal policies globally of any nation. NOT just balancing a budget but a surplus was to occur 2020. Obviously not now. Our debt to GDP ratio and NET debt to GDP ratio is astoundingly low lowest in G20 or close to it ?

WAKE UP you DRONGOS in charge. If your wrong and go to 5% of GDP stimulus pre Monday and even 10% supporting retailers and small business, casual workers, HUMANS … that's WHY … you saved. That virtually NO payments have eventuated to business from Bushfire support to date, given nearly 3 months have passed is pathetic.

If global markets DO NOT CLOSE …. and the USA do not see need, it will cause NO HARM … it will likely reduce it. I have no vested interest other than being long equities, and if the ones I own. Top20 ones, fall, so to will our nation and species.

CLOSE the BLOODY EXCHANGES please for 7 days or 14 days. Get your finger out DRONGO and announce something. ANYTHING …. NOW ….

Kind regards and apologies, a prayers and for those impacted and sick. I hope they find some magic combination that works immediately.

Of course, likely …. totally wrong, its a bad dream.

take care

Mark Kahuna.

P.S maybe I rush out and buy mince, forgetting Australia exports 4 times as much as it consumes and we are all becoming cave people ?

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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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