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Commander C
Posted on: Mar 23 2012, 09:55 AM


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Hi Flower

Were/are you holding SHD as well as WDR?

For SHD I didn't end up sending any complaint letter, just in case there is a future rights issue with shortfall form and I get rejected because I had complained earlier!

Wonder if WDR can do takeover of SHD --- or even get funds from merger with MMX?
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Commander C
Posted on: Feb 8 2012, 01:42 PM


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yay WDR up to make up for my SHD losses!
thinking whether to send in a complaint letter to SHD
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 17 2012, 06:47 PM


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[On a minor related point...do you mean Angus Geddes or someone else...I thought Angus Geddes is still at Fat Prophets??]
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 22 2011, 06:41 PM


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For half way between baroque & classical:

C P E Bach

Here is an amazing rendition of his Flute concerto
Philippe Bernold with the Concerto Avenna in Poznan (Poland) in 1989

Check out the speed / tempo and virtuosity!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAaLbqinLWM
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Dec 21 2011, 05:34 AM


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Christmas musical item --- Corelli's Christmas Concerto

Roy Goodman and the Brandenburg Concert with theorbo (I think)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anVSAGFkuTA...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4flBSb5ZaU...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4x5XrdU5fg...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-PtdTlwdBk...feature=related


Gottfried von der Goltz and the Freiburg Baroque Orchestra with archlute (I think)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqP7bWRj4v4...feature=related
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Dec 14 2011, 09:39 AM


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Foster Stockbroking research report out on website today
http://www.westgold.com.au/westgold-broker-research.html
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 8 2011, 07:03 PM


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As a rough rule of thumb I wonder how much $/oz one would pay for mid-high cost reserves?
$300 or $400/oz?

Let's say it's $350/oz, then if they can prove up 800k oz of reserves (they already have 600k oz of reserves) then WGR in production should be capitalised at about $280 million.

Subtract $150 million in capex to get there.

And left with market cap of $130 million -- compared with the current market cap.


Of course, only a small portion of the $150 million in capex will be raised from debt....rest from equity

So rise in actual share price won't nearly be as proportional as $130 million / current market cap.

BUT they do need to get a move on promoting share price UP, so when do the capital raising, it is less dilutive to existing shareholders.

Thoughts?
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 8 2011, 06:55 PM


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decided to get some SHD in the 6-7 cent range (just a bit off the bottom unfortunately)

wanting some DSO found quick!!!
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 2 2011, 03:16 PM


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Nebo, Arty - you guys still following?

Reading through the last two presentations which indicate trading at half of broker values -- is this for real?

Commander C
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 2 2011, 02:48 PM


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Beats me how people get into such responsible positions really.

Through bluster and prating LOL!
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 2 2011, 02:46 PM


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Yeh meh keeping eye on UCL too!:)

Although MAK keeps fallling faster than UCL, so the hypothetical "merger" ratio is falling from MAK's perspective (bad for MAK's shareholders)
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 1 2011, 06:00 AM


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Aren't we talking about their incremental "5th" area at CGMP?

No 1 = existing open cut + Big Bell tailings = 0.6m oz o/c + 0.1m oz tailings = 0.7m oz resources @ $700/oz cost

No 2 = Big Bell underground = 0.4m oz reserves @ 4 g/t @ $900/oz cost

No 3 = Great Fingall & Golden Crown underground = 0.2m oz reserves @ 8 g/t @ $800/oz cost

are more or less real

No 4 = South Fingall open pit = trying to define say 0.1m oz resources

No 5 = Cuddingwarra (incl Jim's Find & Lady Rosie) open pit = trying to define say 0.1m oz resources

are more or less speculative



Cost of No 1, 2, 3 = say $100 million for plant and $50 million for 1 pit and two declines (refurbish/extension I think rather than totally new)???
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 29 2011, 07:05 PM


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Hi denpal

I totally agree ---- Namibia costs at most $200 million (gross) to develop....while Wonarah costs $2 billion --- where will MAK find $1 billlion for their share???

Should we be writing letters into the new Executive Chairman and remaining Board members???

Commander C
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 23 2011, 12:17 PM


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Hopefully doesn't leave shd sherwin in the lurch as I have some of these too
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 21 2011, 04:37 PM


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anyone still following Ariadne Australia?
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 21 2011, 04:21 PM


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hopefully
* sale of residual assets for a gazillion
* takeover for a gazillion
* discovery of a gazillion DSO

but probably
* a minor deal LOL
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 17 2011, 02:47 PM


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Yeh not so good news for the Cottee camp

Still 35% voted "no" against the remuneration report = 1 strike

If at the next AGM more than 25% vote "no",

then a resolution to remove all directors (spill the Board) must be put to shareholders (requiring 50% to succeed) at the same AGM

then within 90 days, a new vote on who should be a director (where the spilled directors can stand again of course)
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 17 2011, 12:50 PM


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Any word on the voting?
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 4 2011, 02:25 PM


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Hi WW

Great to hear from you! How're things "out west"?

Yes it's been a painful last year with WGR (and ADN).

What do you reckon -- vote a big "NO" on the Remuneration Report???


Re Rover - How hard can it be to drill all those ironstones! Just do it! Grrrrrrrrrrrr.

Re CMGP - What do you make of the latest results at Jim's Find and South Fingall?

Cheers & regards

CC
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Commander C
Posted on: Nov 2 2011, 07:32 PM


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Apologies both to "Aaron" Henrietta and Arty, my name is Commander Aardvaark!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Commander C
Posted on: Oct 31 2011, 11:08 AM


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Hi Brierley and all

Re "commitments" I get the following estimates...


Administration
$2.5 million per quarter (incl. Melbourne HO and Jakarta office) 8 FTEs = $10 million pa
i.e. $30m by 30 June 2014


Exploration
ca $30m by 30 June 2014 (assuming no farmin deals in Seruway PSC), made up of

Carnarvon - WA 360 (50%) - under renewal/review
Carnarvon - WA 361 (50%): 363 sq km 3D, ca $2m
Petrel - WA454 (100%): 2D etc + 400 sq km 3D, say ca $5m
Vulcan - AC/P50, P51, P53 (100%): 2D & 3D, some number
East Java - South Madura PSC (30%): under review
North Sumatra - Seruway PSC (100%): 700 sq km 3D, say $7m, plus one offshore well, say $13m all by Dec 2012


Anything odd or missing here?

So in summary, in worst case scenario
get no farmins and no success

so on 30 June 2014 we will have spend $60 million and only have $30 million in cash left

so max downside is a share price of 30/540 = approx 5 cents, i.e. -75% from today's share price

upside should maybe be 3-5 times this or 45-75 cent gain
i.e. maybe ideally want share price target of up to $1.00 in the mid success case
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Commander C
Posted on: Oct 30 2011, 10:23 AM


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haha so it has been you bidding ahead of me:)
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Commander C
Posted on: Oct 12 2011, 12:57 PM


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looks like it was worth it!
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Commander C
Posted on: Oct 2 2011, 08:14 PM


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And geoq if you can hunt down full version by the flamenco guitarist Paco de Lucia, I think you will like

there are partial versions of the Rodriguez concierto on youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8LL1x6J2rU...feature=related
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Sep 22 2011, 12:42 PM


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We've been Nexed.
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Commander C
Posted on: Sep 18 2011, 09:00 AM


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solid rise in GTE last week (although SRI and LSR fallen off a bit)
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Commander C
Posted on: Sep 6 2011, 01:53 PM


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Sipa has announced a big discovery at Thaduna (refer SRI releases and sharescene comments).

Lodestar's Ned Creek is 10km east of Thaduna (and 30km east of Sandfire's DeGrussa).

DeGrussa me!
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Commander C
Posted on: Sep 6 2011, 01:43 PM


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SRI Sipa and DUO Duorado going mental too

-- maybe due to SRI???
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Commander C
Posted on: Sep 6 2011, 01:39 PM


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thank goodness!
one of my very few winners this last 6 months - need the morale boost!
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Commander C
Posted on: Aug 15 2011, 11:33 AM


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Still holding a bit of IGR.

Trying to get a full picture:

Life Of Mine cash costs are estimated to average A$800/oz

--- so maybe A$700/oz for open pit (although FY2012 cash cost is A$550/oz)
--- and maybe A$900/oz for underground
--- noting that production could be 50-50 from open pit and underground, to produce 1 million oz in total (but can only call 0.5 million oz as reserves, as no point delineating the underground)

Do we know if these cash costs include the cost of doing the declines each at Cock-Eyed Bob, Santa and Maxwells?
Any other large capex items expected?


If we assume A$1800/oz gold price on average for FY2013 onwards
Then $70m after-tax for 9 years at 10% discount rate is worth about $420 million.
Plus FY2012 will get say $50 million, after netting off the $23 million of exploration and delineation budgeted for this year.

So in total $470 million NPV, less corporate costs ???

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Commander C
Posted on: Aug 10 2011, 07:50 PM


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Alkimos

Here is ME with his new translator Catherine Tate....she translates into Wolof at the end

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XY66ZJ0TFUI...feature=related

CommanderC
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Commander C
Posted on: Aug 10 2011, 05:41 PM


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haha didn't realise "wolof" was a language, read it as "woof"

FAR need to invite Karim to the F1 in Singapore next month, 23-25 September - and pay for flights + accommodation + entertainment.

Then paper can be signed on 26 September on the top floor restaurant here:
http://www.singaporecasinohotel.com/marina-bay-sands-hotel

How hard can it be?
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Commander C
Posted on: Jul 29 2011, 05:46 PM


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QR makes interesting reading

if had to summarise, I would do so as:

Reserves 0.550m oz Au (CMGP, net*)
Plus Resources 1.450m oz Au equiv (CMGP + Rover 1*)

= 2 million mineable reserves & resources

Yet Enterprise Value is only about A$100 million --- why???



* Workings are:
RESERVES
CMGP Big Bell undeground 400k oz
CMGP Great Fingall/Golden Crown 200k oz gross, less say 50k oz arguably belonging to potential JV partner = 150k oz net

RESOURCES
CMGP open pit 600k oz
CMGP tailing 100k oz
Rover 1 high grade 750k oz Au equiv
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Commander C
Posted on: Jul 29 2011, 02:20 PM


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oh dear QR out today with inconclusive result at Winjabbie East

let's hope they get soon
* cultural clearance to drill Canegrass South
* renewal of permit at EL4284 Toondulya

note also that GUN Gunson jv is drilling two wells at Emmie Bluff (Xstrata paying drilling costs to get to 75%) --- which may (or may not) be connected to Argo's Emmie North across the permit border...

...you know if the two Emmies are truly geologically related?
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Commander C
Posted on: Jul 28 2011, 07:35 PM


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quarterly activities report
quarterly cashflow report
non-exec director announcement
second drilling rig announcement

+ Westgold has Rover 1 updated resources release
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Commander C
Posted on: Jul 28 2011, 07:32 PM


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Resource update released today.
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Commander C
Posted on: Jul 26 2011, 06:43 PM


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Hi Ericson

Gotta question re the conference --- what is the name of the Gold Coast conference in September?

I can find these:
- RIU Melbourne Resources Round Up (28-29 Sep)
- Mining 2991 Resources Convention (26-28 Oct)

but none other?

Thanks!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jul 19 2011, 05:08 PM


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Sibelius Symphony No.2 --- 3rd & 4th movement

Leonard Bernstein conducting, amazing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY6b1DdSCwk
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Jul 6 2011, 06:46 AM


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so was anyone apt enough to budget for buying in the tax loss selling week?

i had all my holiday bills and unexpected expenses and don't get paid to mid July - so no budgeting or aptness on my side!:)
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 19 2011, 02:00 PM


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Hi Brierley

Note that the alternative strategy is to wait till just before the commencement of drilling of ENI's Heron well in 201x.

It's quite conceivable that the share price will be lacklustre until then!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 18 2011, 04:32 PM


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Hi Triage

Do you read the A$200m given as the value of the Longtom Santos contract and the A$160m in cash and tax credits as being NET of Longtom debt and net of the Subordinated notes

If not, do we have to subtract from A$360m the Nexus debt balance to work out the NAV/share based on Longtom and net cash & tax credits?

Thx

Commander C
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 18 2011, 04:04 PM


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Cash backing is 18c (excluding capitalised G&A)
So if buy below 18c, getting the ENI firm well for free

If super genius investor, would be 50% cashed up ahead of the tax loss selling week (last week of June)

and can go around buying up all the stocks trading below net cash!!!

Alas still mostly in stocks with only a bit of cash aside lol
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 7 2011, 12:41 PM


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same plan here, although not one of my more successful trades here! sad.gif

--- i think now I will wait to mid month before re-entering
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 6 2011, 05:52 PM


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bonus modus

aut

malus modus operandi?
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 5 2011, 02:07 PM


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Finally a live performance of Africa uploaded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgeUOR284ds...feature=related

Ilonia Turchaninova (piano) + Vyacheslav Redya (conductor)
and what I think, translating the Cyrillic and into Ukrainian, is the Zaporizhia Academic Symphony Orchestra
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Jun 4 2011, 07:53 PM


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I guess perhaps when brokers are negative, time for a closer look to see if worth buying:)
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 2 2011, 09:08 PM


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i think they have been trading at a discount to NAV for yonks (years)

BUT

if you have a spare month of weekends, it may be worthwhile to track their share price / NAV ratio for the last 3 years to see if at an abnormally big discount today
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Commander C
Posted on: Jun 2 2011, 10:16 AM


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if he finds a phosphate project from Outer Phosphalia I shall be happy!:)
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Commander C
Posted on: May 30 2011, 08:55 PM


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are we the only guys in the entire world to be following this stock?
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Commander C
Posted on: May 30 2011, 08:55 PM


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Yeh have held, off to the fortune teller and palm reader this week to decide what to do
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Commander C
Posted on: May 30 2011, 08:43 PM


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Yeh now that you mention it and then one does some googling, there are some interesting articles

e.g. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...3259214498.html

Mr. Som, who was in Australia with an Indian delegation recently, said the company has also reached an informal understanding with Australia's Minemakers Ltd. to jointly develop one of the largest rock phosphate projects in the country's Northern Territory. NMDC will soon prepare a detailed project report and if it is found to be satisfactory, the company will look at buying up to a 50% stake in the Australian company, Mr. Som said.


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Commander C
Posted on: May 30 2011, 08:29 PM


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In my fantasy maybe Aru and Cannavo have found some more potash projects in potashkent or potashistan to vend into GTE

one can only dream....
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Commander C
Posted on: May 30 2011, 08:22 PM


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Cheers Nowhere Man, yeh just going through my stocknessmonster stock watch list and saw the announcement!

What's do you make of it???
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Commander C
Posted on: May 26 2011, 07:09 PM


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hi BP
Euroz say anything interesting/useful?
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Commander C
Posted on: May 15 2011, 02:10 PM


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Bach's great Brandenburg Concertos (#1 to #6)

Search on YouTube for the ones conducted by Claudio Abbado and performed by Orchestra Mozart (an Italian orchestra it appears).
-- OnlyClassicalMusic and wolfganghp and galdo80 have uploaded these performances


No. 1 Three oboes & two horns, 3rd movement makes me feel happy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS7ImLrEqDE...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GH9_7N6_rUE...feature=related

No. 2 Amazing trumpet playing
1st movement makes me think have wandered into a friendly tavern, getting a drink and chatting with long lost friends
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNXaJKdr7yk...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ewqx7Pu9yBI...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLsNzCx1ots...feature=related

No. 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmW92wOdRdI&feature=fvsr

No. 4 Two recorders
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRoojYH0GbQ...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xzJstWE_4Y...feature=related

No. 5 Awesome harpsichord & flute
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBw6wwa7eC8...;feature=fvwrel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUfnC4xSizk...feature=related

No. 6 Check out the two viola de gamba and the two violas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LoW_H1TNoE...44D214041E728C3
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: May 15 2011, 01:47 PM


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So June then (or maybe July if there are delays --- how long does it take to tow a rig down from the Barents Sea to Senegal)?

Seems to me a choice between

- buying in last week of June, as betting there will be delay into July (and thus taking advantage of any tax loss selling in the last week of June)
- buying now BESBS

Hmmm maybe just have to do 50-50 or 1/3-1/3 (and keep 1/3 free in cash in case an unknown unknown hits)
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Commander C
Posted on: May 15 2011, 01:40 PM


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question for me is how to get me some free trustee shares:)smile.gif
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Commander C
Posted on: May 13 2011, 10:24 PM


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MLM up strongly on volume today
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Commander C
Posted on: May 13 2011, 10:01 PM


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carefully check denominator for NAV per share is correcto.

from memory (and I think in post below) there are 33m trustee shares and 73m partly paids, so have to adjust for that
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Commander C
Posted on: May 12 2011, 08:08 PM


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Ah just noticed 14 March announcement - Robert Brierley (ex-Patersons, ex-Hartleys) appointed MD
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?...SX&N=533200
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Commander C
Posted on: May 12 2011, 08:05 PM


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RIU presentation out today
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?...SX&N=541557

rather unfortunately looking slide 12 (pdf page 13)
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Commander C
Posted on: May 12 2011, 03:21 PM


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bit stuck now....bought some earlier below 8, so should I now sell for >12c for an instant gratification 50%....

....or do I hold on and hope they hit say Commonwealth Dam?
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Commander C
Posted on: May 11 2011, 10:51 AM


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New WGR presentation out
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Commander C
Posted on: May 11 2011, 10:44 AM


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Re-reading QR from last month:

* McDonald Well --- Phase II RC drilling status = awaiting heritage approvals

* Marymia --- 3 drill targets (A, B, C) = awaiting statutory approvals
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Commander C
Posted on: May 9 2011, 08:42 PM


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For me the wariness is that their production strategy has a little bit of illogicality in it....

by which I mean there is something not quite right, but it could be my misinterpretation...



Oil prices at record highs
So want to produce as much oil as possible at these high prices
So drill high initial production wells asap

But

Carnarvon says "let's drill low production sandstone wells" because "these are stable over the long-term and means less volatile cashflows"


volatilty schmolatility dammit, i think they should be drilling high production volcanic wells when oil prices are >$100/bbl and switch back to sandstone when oil prices are <$100/bbl

but instead they do the reverse??!!

am I crazy to think they are crazy?
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Commander C
Posted on: May 6 2011, 08:28 PM


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I can dream tonight that it hits the next Olympic dam --- or does 100m drill core of solid gold haha:)
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Commander C
Posted on: May 6 2011, 11:52 AM


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probably only thing on mine that's up today!
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Commander C
Posted on: May 5 2011, 06:31 PM


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2) also kept funds in reserve, in case in the week or two leading up to 30 June there is "tax loss selling", and that pushes share price down further
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Commander C
Posted on: May 5 2011, 06:27 PM


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"some" not a "bundle" -- kept some funds in reserve in case my wild guess*** is wrong



***as just wildly guessing that share price is about 40-50% discount to net asset value, and in the currently climate won't go to 50-70% discount to NAV because
- not in a GFC or sharemarket crash
- POE would do a takeover if CVN share price went to 50-70% discount
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Commander C
Posted on: May 4 2011, 07:52 PM


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well I B some at 23-24

can easily go lower, but hopefully there is something to GCA's valuation report and they haven't been telling porkies

mr delusional:)
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Commander C
Posted on: May 3 2011, 08:19 PM


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spp closes Wednesday 4 May?
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Commander C
Posted on: May 2 2011, 12:03 PM


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QR out
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Commander C
Posted on: May 2 2011, 11:48 AM


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Sinotech Minerals MOU -- wonder why they are interested in ENT?
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Commander C
Posted on: Apr 28 2011, 07:36 AM


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do you have hte website link to the Finder presentation? i can't find it thx:)
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Commander C
Posted on: Apr 27 2011, 08:09 PM


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arrrrrrrrghagah should have bought $500 of this pup earlier in the month, for the rights issue overs!
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Commander C
Posted on: Apr 24 2011, 11:26 AM


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Ah yes just saw 1 April one now. Interesting from north to south in two columns we have:

PEP 52593 - OXX 100%
APPL 53473 - OXX 100%
PEP 51906 - OXX 35%, OMV 65%

PEP 51558 Parihaka - NZOG 50%, Mitsui 30%, Todd 20% (recently farmed in)
APPL 53374 - Todd 100%
PEP 381203 - Shell 77.5%, OMV 10%, Todd 12.5% - not sure what the result of the recent Ruru exploration well was?

Todd must like east of Maui, and Octanex west of Maui!


and then to the south of both and around Maari oil field
PEP 51313 - Cue 20%, Horizon 30%, Todd 50% but no OMV or Octanex

and to the southeast of Tui oil field and east of Maari and west of Kupe gas condensate field
PEP 51311 - NZOG 90%, Raisama (Peak) 10% but no OMV or Octanex


[P.S. Trying to find economics & engineering studies et al on Cornea at the moment...]
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 23 2011, 04:44 PM


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Posts: 1,116

anyone following KSO?

I wonder how their drilling is coming along, very silent last few weeks...
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 23 2011, 03:43 PM


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Hi mme

How are you? I am keeping a lazy eye on OXX!

By my calcs, market cap is 151m quoted plus 33m trustee shares @ 36c and 73m partly paids @ 16c= $78m

It therefore seems that their exploration portfolio is valued at A$40m, with $15m for CUE (and MOG) shares and $23m cash = market cap of $78m.

some questions i have include
* what does Galahad result mean for chance of success at Gawain
* is there a knight in shining armour around the corner
* is Santos drilling at Winchester
* will Shell farmin to WA-385 and WA-394
* what's the holdup with Cornea

Commander
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 16 2011, 11:06 AM


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given Longtom is funded by debt, one could hazard a guess that NXS needs to drill Longtom South to prove up reserves to keep the banks happy to continue to lend (whatever that facility amount would be).

there was something in the fineprint of presentation about the Longtom reservoir being "complex" which usually is not a good sign...implies reserves are lower than one was expecting, based on the existing capital expenditure budget.

so NXS has to drill more make-up wells in the existing reservoir to get its forecast reserves out (and keep banks happy) and/or it has to find new reserves a la drilling Longtom South

so we are about 2/3 of the way there....raise money, drill Longtom South, find more reserves, banks roll over Longtom loan

at the same time try and fix Crux
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 13 2011, 12:38 PM


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it has worked for a few other of my companies!:)
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 13 2011, 11:32 AM


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Hiya for comparison to see whether PCL is undervalued or overvalued also check out the presentations of

COV.LN Cove Energy
DPL.LN Dominion Petroleum
Fxx unlisted Flow Energy

These are the juniors in offshore "deep water" Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique.
There are probably a few more listed juniors involved in "deep water" Comoros and Madagascar too, but can't find them easily.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 12 2011, 08:17 PM


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if we all write in out of the blue (totalling 4-5 letters from concerned small shareholders), at least at the next board meeting it will be an agenda item lol!
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 12 2011, 08:15 PM


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big day today
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 12 2011, 02:01 PM


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Do you guys want to each write in to the Board (Kennedy/Myers) asking that shareholders get to participate on same terms -- either through rights issue or spp?

http://www.pancon.com.au/about/board-of-directors/
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 7 2011, 10:03 PM


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GTE getting back up to 50

although GTEO only at 20 (cf high of 30 in October 2010) with no time value currently being attached to options
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 5 2011, 10:54 PM


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Next 11 wells at McDonald's Well (Neds Creek) awaiting Heritage approval
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 5 2011, 10:20 PM


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TerryA You still following this stock?
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 5 2011, 07:16 PM


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lol
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 3 2011, 07:23 PM


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does it just threaten the world though or does it also create opportunities? smile.gif

of course there is a wealth loss from there not being lots and lots of a cheap input (oil costing <$50/bbl) to produce products and services which maintain a high standard of living for us in the West

but partially offsetting this,

won't higher oil prices just make the large 2nd-tier resources in non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Australia, and NZ more economic and doable?

and there is always a chance that the technologies for developing 2nd-tier resources (oil sands, liquids from shale gas, shale oil, lignite coal to oil etc etc) which cost say $100/bbl now may become cheaper quite quickly and head to $50/bbl cost or lower....which then leads to an overall absolute higher standard of living?

I guess I am the eternal Panglossian*?smile.gif


* search "Candide" in wikipedia
  Forum: Macro Factors

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 3 2011, 04:59 PM


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Posts: 1,116

COMPANIES TO WATCH IN TOP HALF OF SOUTH AMERICA


French Guyana
Shell / Total / Tullow


Suriname
Inpex (on the Japanese stock market)
Murphy
Noble / Petro-Hunt / Repsol
Tullow


Guyana
CGX Energy (OYL on the Canadian venture exchange)
CGX / Tullow / Repsol YPF
Exxon / Shell


Venezuela
Chavez Co, Gaddafi Corp, Assad Group, Mugabe Oil --- OK I jest here...but is it true?


Trinidad & Tobago
???
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Commander C
Posted on: Apr 3 2011, 04:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,116

Cheers Apache.

Have a look at OYL on the Canadian exchange (CGX Energy) and tell me what you think.
They do Guyana.
http://cgxenergy.ca/investors.html

Pity it's valued at $170m instead of $17m if it were listed on the ASX!

I'll set up a new Discussion topic for this .... Oil - West Africa and South America

Regards

Commander C
  Forum: Macro Factors

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 28 2011, 12:54 PM


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Posts: 1,116

Announcement on Jupiter Deeps result + commentary on what it means in relation to Southern Zone.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 17 2011, 05:06 PM


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Can you recall if they said Brent less 10% or Dated Brent less 10%?

10% is a bit of a discount, although still making US$100/bbl
http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wco_k_w.htm


this exploration game sure sucks...nothing from CVN/SUR and nothing from NWE
only TAP finds something and I don't hold it!
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 10 2011, 07:09 AM


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Posts: 1,116

Speaking of Bernstein
here he is conducting the finale of the Haydn Symphony No. 88 'Oxford'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlURvraEmeY

from about 4 minutes..."look no hands"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 10 2011, 06:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,116

Here's some Schumann for today

Symphony No. 3 in E flat "Rhenish", conducted by Leonard Bernstein
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_U8NCfDwbFk...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3u98j5DBE8k...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGMzEUPc430...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2rOtbyRYRM...feature=related

Symphony No. 4 in D minor, conducted by Leonard Bernstein
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia9yf-U6AFU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzS-n43Mzj8...feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8iteWJb-hc...feature=related
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 9 2011, 05:34 AM


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Posts: 1,116

hmmm I wonder if I do a GTE and wait hoping it hits 30c, or just buy some now...
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 9 2011, 05:33 AM


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hope you get better soon! and got a bit of help round the house too, that always helps:)
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 8 2011, 03:23 PM


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rats had my low bids in at about 30 last few weeks and never filled sad.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 2 2011, 08:08 PM


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Mick are you cashing some profits though and [recycling into other silvers]?
e.g. selling random number half, so that if goes up more at least you gain and if falls at least you sold some?

14 million oz probable reserves Ag = 280k oz probable Au
[and 50m oz Ag resources = only 1m oz Au resources]

150 million shares @ $1.00 = $150m market cap for 280k oz of Au equiv reserves is >A$500/oz Au-equiv reserves
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Commander C
Posted on: Mar 2 2011, 03:52 PM


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do you think (reading between lines of previous announcements) that there is a target at what we would call

"Area E (north)" --- east of Area F (east) and west of the top bit of Area E (east)?

i.e. a full 15km strike of thinly dipping DSO from the western edge of Area F (west) to the northern tip of Area E (east)?

that would make my day to get 30 million tonnes of DSO!
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 2 2011, 11:34 AM


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Like ARE/SRQ & Torrens --- have to wait for heritage approval to drill in the most prospective southern section of Vulcan.
What have they been doing last 5 years?

For now, they are drilling to the north-east of VUD-7...
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Mar 1 2011, 07:14 PM


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How are our "eusocial" friends doing?



Termites in the human diet
In many cultures, termites (particularly the winged ones known as alates) are used for food. The alates are nutritious, having a good store of fat and protein, and are palatable in most species with a nutty flavour when cooked. They are easily gathered at the beginning of the rainy season in West, Central and Southern Africa when they swarm, as they are attracted to lights and can be gathered up when they land on nets put up around a lamp. The wings are shed and can be removed by a technique similar to winnowing. They are best gently roasted on a hot plate or lightly fried until slightly crisp; oil is not usually needed since their bodies are naturally high in oil. Traditionally they make a welcome treat at the beginning of the rainy season when livestock is lean, new crops have not yet produced food, and stored produce from the previous growing season is running low.[citation needed]

They are also eaten in Indonesia, including Central Java, where they are roasted or fried.

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Commander C
Posted on: Mar 1 2011, 07:04 PM


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Anyone following? From 75 to 55 recently....just due to copper price?
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Commander C
Posted on: Mar 1 2011, 07:03 PM


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Area D (BFO) resource statement out today

I am waiting for what their DSO (if any) will look like...
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 25 2011, 11:32 AM


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Out last Tuesday 22nd -- nothing much from 5 RC wells.

A conductive black shale unit, which makes it difficult to ID conductive sulphide targets.

Applying for approval to drill another 13 VTEM anomalies in the McDonald Well area.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 21 2011, 07:44 PM


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Posts: 1,116

Good spotting arty!

A ratio which might be interesting to keep track of (I haven't really as too busy on other stuff) is ratio between POE (Toronto) and CVN share price

since POE-CVN are in joint venture in their main producing asset.

Maybe (? -- mechanics need to be sorted out how one successfully executes) one strategy is to hold 1/2 normal holding in POE and 1/2 normal holding in CVN, and when CVN gets "relatively" cheap sell POE and buy more CVN....and vice versa.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 21 2011, 07:37 PM


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NB. Chocolate fish to Lord Spesh for correctly picking 48c!:)
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 21 2011, 07:32 PM


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I had a read a few times, and I must admit they have been working on their PR!

It seems to make sense mostly....but

...the nagging feeling is what about our hedging that was required to underwrite the debt --- it is closed out, or are we still locked into a gold price from a year or so back?

IGR: "We need debt to build this mine"
Bank: "OK we will lend you, but you have to hedge most of your initial production --- that way, if there is GFC 2 you will be protected"
IGR: "OK we hedge so now we don't have to worry about GFC 2 ever ever"

later

IGR: "We done it, our mine is built and our share price has doubled, so now we raise equity to repay debt because we worry about GFC 2 (even though we had hedged earlier)"
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 20 2011, 09:17 PM


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Good luck to us indeed!:)

I have Sipa to the north, Enterprise to the northwest, Dourado to the west and south, Xstrata to the south east and east, and UNKNOWN to the northeast & north --- did you ever find out the unknown one?
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Commander C
Posted on: Feb 20 2011, 08:16 PM


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9. Hopefully in ancient times between Degrussa and our acreage, there were volcanoes [a la Jingpo Lake, Keluo, Wu-dalian-chi in Manchuria China, Baekdu Mountain in North Korea and the island volcanoes of Hallasan and Ulleungdo offshore South Korea] + "growth faults", whereby the molten "magma" feeding the volcanoes also vectored into the "growth faults" and deposited large amounts of gold and other treasures for the benefit of millions of dollars for future shareholders in GTE...
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 20 2011, 07:54 PM


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Posts: 1,116

Thanks for that Nowhere Man -- yes Wiki is very useful!
esp. as my geo uni notes are in a carton in the etherspace of 50 other boxes of notes & books in half the garage

So the logic appears to be:

1. We have found bimodal volcanism

2. BMV is associated with
- continental rifting, or
- back-arc basin (spreading area behind the island arc and the subduction zone, i.e. Sea of Japan/Russian Far East, behind Japan and the Mariana trench)

3. We think our acreage is in the back-arc basin area

4. We think most acreage around Degrussa is in the fore-arc basin area

5a. In ancient times, when one continent was subducting the other continent in the fore-arc basin area, it got jammed...the jammed part of the subducting continental crust (deep in the earth) rebounded now (like paper in a shredding machine when it gets jammed) covered both in oceanic crust / upper mantle, and this oceanic crust and upper mantle was uplifted into the air.

5b. The exposed oceanic crust and upper mantle, emplaced on the rebounded part of the subducting continental crust, is called an ophiolite.

6. We think most of the Narcoota Formation near where Degrussa is located is an ophiolite.

7. Pointless in targetting most of the Narcoota Formation because that will just be oceanic crust or upper mantle.

8. Instead we are targetting specific zones in the sub-arc basin which are similar to the specific zone where Degrussa is located.

9. Hopefully in ancient times between Degrussa and our acreage, there were volcanoes [a la Russian Far East] + "growth faults", whereby the molten "magma" vectored into the "growth faults" and deposited large amounts of gold and other treasures for the benefit of millions of dollars for future shareholders in GTE...


Hopefully this is a near-enough plain English translation!!!:)
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 19 2011, 08:22 PM


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hah agree, "The End of Cheap Oil" is a far better description.

An interesting dynamic --- as borne out by low US gas prices and the big discount of WTI (American) oil compared to Brent (UK) or Tapis (Asian) oil, as the US has relatively more surplus oil being produced unconventionally --- will be shale gas. Unlike coal seam gas, shale gas typically comes out wet (with condensate/light oil and LPG).


If oil prices remain stronger for longer (meaning that banks will update their internal oil prices assumptions and be willing to lend more money out) and assuming no GFC (meaning that banks will still be lending normally)
then (wet) shale gas projects around the world will start rolling out.
Santos/Beach/Stuart are already talking about Cooper Basin.

One scenario could be
* oil moves into range of between US$100-$120/bbl
* a zillion wet shale gas projects (and conventional LNG condensate projects) get rolling from North America to Australia to Europe
* oil demand met at this price range, from increase in condensate production from unconventional shale projects
* HUGE gas surplus leading to plummeting gas price
--- becomes economic to start converting cars to CNG (compressed natural gas), lessens demand for oil at very high oil prices
--- Gas-to-Liquids projects using the very cheap gas being economic, again lessening demand for oil at very high oil prices


Just realised - over 1000 posts!
Triage you are nearing your 2nd millennium:)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 19 2011, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,116

Current ALY enterprise value (market cap less net cash) is around $30-$40 million, so comparable companies include

ARX Arc Exploration (Papua & Indo gold exploration)
MTH Mithril Resources (NT)

DUO Dourado Resources
GTE Great Western Exploration
SRI Sipa Resources

All of these have had "hits" --- but have yet to prove up a meaningful resource.



To get to the $50-$60 million range in the current market environment like

AZX Auzex
AAG Aragon
WGR Westgold

probably need the 1 to 2 million oz of undeveloped MII resources like these companies have
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 19 2011, 11:11 AM


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Previously...
Chairman - Davies (ex Hamersley, Robe River)
Director - Downey
Director / Co Sec - Arbuckle

MD - Hannington (ex North, Oxiana)
EM - Cassidy
CM - House
PDM - Hopkins (ex Equigold)



Now...
Chairman - Davies (ex Hamersley, Robe River)
Director - Moore (MD Abra, ex-MD Allied Gold)
Director - Arbuckle

MD - vacant searching
Acting CEO / EM - Cassidy
Co Sec - Crawford
(and presumably House & Hopkins still there)
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 18 2011, 04:45 PM


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IGR turning into a bit of a disaster for anyone who hasn't sold any over 55c!

I was wondering using Hindsight Investing techniques...

...are there any technical guys/gals here who can tell me if we look back at the bar charts or candle charts and trading volumes of IGR, was there anything in the spike up above 70c that said "sell sell sell" ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 18 2011, 11:26 AM


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Hi Mick

MAR really need better investor relations -- today's release should be good news

but it is too wordy and no pictures and no graphs and no presentation and no fuzzy happy words in big bold font:)
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 17 2011, 08:41 PM


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Do we know how much cash SRQ Straits Metals has?
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 16 2011, 03:01 PM


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PCL need better PR!!!

instead of ASX release entitled "divestment"

they should have released a jazzy one such as "Apache buys into L8 Kenya permit!!! Double Plus Good!!!"

  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 15 2011, 04:40 PM


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when I was reading it I was thinking there are times every few thousand of years when (small) meteors or (small) comets hit the earth in the ocean, causing tsunami everywhere, hence at those times want to be up high!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 14 2011, 07:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,116

Hi Nowhere Man

Hope you are well. Couple of unimportant questions:

* With the lingo, do you know what is "bi-modal volcanic sequences" in a couple of words?
* Am looking at the tenement map slide --- do you know who is the owner of the permit to the north and east (in yellow)? Is it Sinosteel?

Well I hope they are onto another "Noranda":)

Let's get "vectoring" toot sweet onto those depositional sites!:)

Commander C
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 14 2011, 05:16 PM


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My totally unscientific, unrecommended weightings in SA spec stocks post-price spikes is

1 unit each in
ADN (Willamulka, Yorke + Peninsula Resources spin-off + t/o of residual ADN by WGR)
AXT (Oak Dam South & Winjabbie East & if cultural permission Canegrass South, Olympic Dam)

and 1/2 unit each in
ARE (Alford, Yorke + Torrens appeal)
SRQ Straits spin-off
TAS (Vulcan, Olympic Dam + heritage/cultural appeal)


However ARE Argonaut @ 11c is getting back into the cheaper zone --- so may add some on weakness esp. if heads down to spp price.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 14 2011, 04:05 PM


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Short presentation out today

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?...SX&N=528873
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 10 2011, 08:39 PM


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I get breakeven volatility to be about 65% using Black-Scholes European Option valuation, to get 0.75c option value.
(5.6c NWE share price, 10.0c option strike, 4.75% interest rate, 0% dividend, today's date = 1 March 2011, expiry = 30 June 2012).

So if you think that NWE shares are more volatile or have implicitly more upside potential than that implied by "65% pa volatility" then the options are cheap.

If you think that NWE shares would be more stable at today's share price levels, then options are expensive.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 10 2011, 05:36 AM


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Posts: 1,116

lol

give me a few days to compose reply haiku
maybe something like


as the bull charges on
past the 5000
does it not glimpse
the toreador in the arena

and what will he do
with his speculative mining affairs
if the bull bites the dust
they melt into nothingness
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 9 2011, 08:52 PM


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Anyone still following MXR?
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 9 2011, 08:24 PM


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Ah yes Wasa just going through QR now.

Market cap $9m
Cash $1m (after near-term expenses)
Investments in PANR $2m

Enterprise Value = 9 - 1 - 2 = $6m for 25% of Intercept Hill project

Should we be comparing to the EV of Tasman Resources which is about $18m for 100% of Vulcan project?

Do you know how many wells Xstrata is free carrying AXT for?

Still, $6m is quite cheap!:)
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 9 2011, 07:51 PM


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I guess SHD (BTV) and WDR will independently try and raise some dough
then if find too hard
merge with each other to get PR scale

maybe Tony Sage needs to be appointed Chairman lol!

hopefully can do it all before the next GFC or commodity price crash!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 9 2011, 06:56 PM


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Posts: 1,116

Just had this thought --- spin-off of Peninsula Resources assets does leave ADN as prime t/o target for WGR (i.e. MLX) at the end of the year, i.e. once WGR has digested AAG.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 9 2011, 09:38 AM


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yeh the equiv to Basker-Manta-Gummy (AZA/ROC) offshore Gippsland

i.e. unmitigated disaster for minority shareholders --- although not necessarily for management...
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 8 2011, 08:24 PM


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Looking better now, in fact re-reading very good news.

We have I guesstimate
- 15 million tonnes DSO @ 57%
- 180 million tonnes UFO (Unsure if Feed Ore LOL) @ 38%

And Area D North using finger geometry looks like being I guesstimate
- 70 (?) million tonnes high-grade BFO @ 45-50%, upgradeable to 55%

yum yum yum yum!:)

I think the value of WDR has change significantly --- but share price up only 10% since announcement?
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 8 2011, 08:13 PM


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Flower are we the only ones following WDR?
There must be no Northern Territorians on sharescene!

Are you also following SHD Sherwin? How does that compared to WDR?
Any other companies in the Roper Bar / Mountain Creek area?
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 8 2011, 08:03 PM


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for what it's worth Bochman, ROC and PSA would also be chunderous stocks to own over the long term
--- and AZA (Anzon) was effectively a dud, although they managed to sell out to ROC at inflated price

...the perils of smoiler [small oil] investing!
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 8 2011, 06:31 PM


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well hit 43 today.

trying to work out what all the stuff in the quarterly report means --- i.e. good or bad

market thinks bad, but it could be wrong

there is upside from winning in Warden's Court (a big "if" of course) and getting all of Grosvenor's acreage
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 8 2011, 06:06 PM


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AZX drilling update out!
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 8 2011, 05:24 AM


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or a very big garden!:)
  Forum: Macro Factors

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 7 2011, 07:45 PM


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Posts: 1,116

WGR takeover offer for AAG.

Also 3 Feb announcement of a third "high grade" (>10g/t) gold lode at Jupiter Deeps
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?...SX&N=527544

to complement the other two high grade gold lodes at the Main Jupiter Zone and at the Western Zone.


I think the plan is to test - at some time in the future - whether the high grade zone extends at depth from Jupiter Deeps towards the deeper Southern Zone --- but announcement doesn't specifically give drilling plans on this.
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 7 2011, 06:37 PM


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Posts: 1,116

Hi Nash!

I missed the high this morning (too much work) but decided to sell out most <20c.

Will probably buy back in at the "inevitable" capital raising!:)

Hope you've done well too!

Commander
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 7 2011, 05:52 PM


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Posts: 1,116

Cheers Mick

MAR has had a sad life and seems to be wanting to turn into gold.

Does that mean we have to look on the Toronto exchange and through the dubious venture issues to find silver plays?
  Forum: Macro Factors

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 7 2011, 11:29 AM


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Posts: 1,116

what fozzy bear says when he's happy!
  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 7 2011, 10:00 AM


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Posts: 1,116

waka waka waka!

  Forum: By Share Code

Commander C
Posted on: Feb 2 2011, 07:53 PM


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well that strategy wasn't successful - it was HOR that hit lucky horseshoe!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 27 2011, 09:31 AM


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AXA AP Chairman Rick Allert appointed Chairman of WDR

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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 19 2011, 11:49 AM


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maybe cos MAK up?
rats should have been buying when MAK up but UCL not!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 19 2011, 05:58 AM


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My favourite Ravel

Piano Concerto in G - 2nd movement adagio assai [slow]

Martha Argerich http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwLarIVXH4k...feature=related
Belgian piano competition winner http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZNISNsMrYY
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Jan 19 2011, 05:09 AM


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Yes I agree Lord Spesh --- maybe this is a better reinterpretation...


-- With this type of shallow cover, there usually are not many anomalies (relative to other gold fields).
-- In our case, we have found anomalies 10% of the time (with grade >0.1 g/t)

[doesn't say what is normal in other gold fields]

-- With this type of shallow cover, anomalies usually have low grade (relative to other gold fields).
-- In our case, our anomalies had grade higher than low grade
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 18 2011, 06:37 PM


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Hi continuum

I read Aldiss announcement as having some import i.e.
--- "there is conceivably something there (to underwrite a standalone Aldiss development)"
--- as opposed to "recce drilling unfortunately found diddly squat"

IGR will now commence drilling "priority one" anomalies with Air Core drilling in 1Q11
--- this could mean starting now January or starting March 31st
--- initially I read it as drilling "one anomaly" and was underwhelmed, but then I corrected myself when I re-read

If - and only if - things still look up and "leads" and "anomalies" turned into "prospects", then IGR will proceed to Reverse Circulation drilling of any real prospects
--- not sure when, no date given


Positives:
* 10km corridor of anomalies
* Existing resource base means may only need to discover an additional 500,000 oz of resource to underwrite standalone development

Negatives
* very complex shallow cover
* there may be not as many anomalies as you would normally expect
* average anomaly may have a lower gold grade than normal
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 18 2011, 04:06 AM


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimony
http://antimonywrold.tradea.org/ [sic]
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009...ent_8654294.htm

Australian stocks (as per Mick's SRL post): SRL and NWR
[and maybe OYM in Bau --- but check first if their "Bau" permit is the same as the "Bau" mine mentioned in antimonyworld]

Howdy gents, Having made a killing on REMs recently, I am hoping that Antimony may become the new Rare earth. Originally, I thought antimony was something you paid after a divorce, but it seems I may be mistaken. It has risen recently from around 6,000 a tonne to a record of 12,000 a tonne over the past year.
China treats antimony in the same way it treats REM's that is it has tried to corner the market - about 91% of all antimony is produced by China.
The chinese have put in a bid to by the defunct Queensland Antimony Mines.

The only other mines are the Coimadi in Vic , owned by Canadian interests, and the Hillgrove mine owned by Straits resources.

Northwest Resources recently announced that it had found good pockets of Antimony.

Antimony is often seen in gold/lead/silver deposits, but is not usually produced as a byproduct.
SRL and NWR may be worth a look.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Commander C
Posted on: Jan 18 2011, 03:58 AM


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Cheers Mick!

Found article on 2009 takeover of Beaver Brook mine in Canada here
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009...ent_8654294.htm

Maybe I shall start an Antimony topic! smile.gif
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 17 2011, 07:33 PM


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MAK on the make the last couple of days...
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 16 2011, 05:19 PM


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Hi Macduffy, Merc, Nifty and Bluebug

I too am watching (although don't hold as yet).

STI seem to have so many pies on their plate and so many fingers in each pie....smile.gif

* Pharmaceutical manufacturing (Canada plant)
* Pharmaceutical marketing (Australia - Stirling Health, 3M)
* Healthcare cost savings technology (TeleMedCare remote monitoring e-Health)
* Healthcare device blockbuster (HDA nebuliser for pulmonary drug delivery)
* Biotech anti-obesity blockbuster
* Biotech HIV/TB (ImmunoXel)
* Animal growth promotion (R-salbatomol)

What are the reasons we think the MD can handle all this?

Why with so many potential upsides, is the stock trading at $11m market cap?

Has it had a poor history with previous management?
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 14 2011, 07:53 PM


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you reminded me --- maybe the optimal strategy is to diversify by geological model...by which I mean

GTE -- say ophiolite etc etc Goodin Fault is a growth fault
ENT --- acreage along Goodin Fault because they think it is of real importance

therefore one is right, not sure which since geological model is just a hypothesis, so holding both 'should' be a way to reduce risk...
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 13 2011, 07:47 PM


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Good point -- also as you later point out it comes down to politics.

But then politics is related to taxes and the fiscal regime.

So say if you had choice between shale gas in Poland and oil in Indonesia the picture might not be so clear-cut.

Sure shale gas in Poland may be lower price --- but the Poles desperately want to be independent of Russia for strategic reasons.
So will have lower government take and even incentives for gas discoveries and production --- e.g. Polish government take might be <10% operating profits.

But in Indonesia government take might be >90% operating profits if discover oil.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Commander C
Posted on: Jan 13 2011, 07:28 PM


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that's what i was asking you!:)

Actually luck has meant I ended up with a bit of GTE for some random reason (was in bottom draw from late 2000s in any case).
And just bought $500 of the others and $2k of LSR while I decide what to do.

If while I am humming and hawing what to do, and one stock doubles or triples --- well that's a bonus $500 or $1k, better than a poke in the eye!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 12 2011, 07:27 PM


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So of

ARO (market cap $9m)
CYS (market cap $9m)
ENT (market cap $23m)
GTE (market cap $30m) - currently drilling
LSR (market cap $11m) - currently drilling
SRI (market cap $36m)


is GTE the best because it is currently drilling AND has a sound geological model....and this more than offsets its higher market cap...so should hold GTE more than the others?

or are we saying that GTE should be one of 5 "Doolgunna/DeGrussa" stocks that one equally holds because we don't know which one will hit pay dirt so have more or less an equal holding in each of the sensible ones?
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 11 2011, 05:44 AM


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My favourite Saint-Saens:

Africa
--- first time I heard this amazing piece was on a United Airlines flight in '09
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=polPjzm225Q


Piano Concerto No 5 - "Egyptian"

--- the 1st movement grows on you after a while
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTPiKPfroMk

--- the 2nd movement beautifully Oriental
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW6FAGqjyUk

--- the 3rd movement reminds me of the steamboat on Death on a Nile chugging up the nile with Hercules Poirot / Peter Ustinov and Angela Lansbury fluttering away
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_LcU8rx-J8
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Jan 10 2011, 02:09 PM


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I know I sold a bundle at close to 15, to buy back in at 10!!!! grrrrrr
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 9 2011, 08:26 PM


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good point.

just been listening to VML interviews on Watershed, and I think on balance it is wise for HAZ to avoid.
(Watershed is nuggety, variable grade in veins, near impossible to do economic drilling to get measured resource for JORC, and has high 10:1 strip ratio yuk yuk yuk)

hopefully HAZ has a JORC surprise in store at Mt Mulgine!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 9 2011, 07:38 PM


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GarryW HAZ will probably do a capital raising after 3 Feb, to replace the $5m cash if they decide to exercise the Wolfram Camp purchase option. So you should have the opportunity then!:)

As a side note, wonder if HAZ will look to acquire VML's Watershed (QLD) project that has 15 million tonnes @ 0.4% WO3. VML say it is currently projected to have <15% IRR, so only a so-so project -- so shouldn't be overpriced and VML need cash to fund their Burkina Faso gold plans.

Are there any other major Australian tungsten (undeveloped) deposits out there?

Arty, you and I seem to be following the same stocks!:)
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 9 2011, 07:32 PM


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Dan1, it is interesting that the capex for Big Hill is estimated at A$120 million, while capex for the Ferrotungsten plant is US$11 million!

Probably shows no barriers to entry in the downstream, and the key issue is getting financial support from banks and shareholders to fund the big upstream mine developments.

This implies that top priority is to get supply off-take contracts required to underwrite development to get bank support, and contract price set at market price to get shareholder support.

As HAZ is also downstream, then banks funding Big Hill will probably want to see customer offtake agreements for Ferrotungsten product.
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 9 2011, 07:10 PM


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Hi all

Just did a quick cursory comparison of Nyngen (JRV/EMC) vs Norinco (MLM/SRL).

Nyngen is 12 million tonnes @ 260 ppm Sc

Norinco's Lucknow has high grade of 4 million tonnes @ 200 g/t (i.e. 200 ppm) Sc
Not sure though if in Stage 1, that MLM plan to mine all the high grade Sc or focus on Ni and Co.

Norinco also has Kokomo deposit - which has the high-grade Wild Honey zone of 0.3 million tonnes @ 200g/t
The low grade Sc at Kokomo is 9 million tonnes @ 110 ppm Sc
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 8 2011, 05:17 PM


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I've read and re-read through their 20th December 2010 announcement and get a slightly different interpretation.
(Jun Quarterly report's Geological Model on page 4 and Sep Quarterly report's Background on page 4 are still great reads.)

Take the interim results to mean that there was NO visible mineralisation in 15/30 holes.
So they are going to stick a EM squidgy down each hole and try and identify where the target might be.
(Admittedly can get mineralisation that is not visible, but ideally want gold lumps in one's drill core!:) smile.gif )

A minor point -- why do GTE say they could be the largest landowner in the district (1750 sq km) when they know that LSR Lodestar has over 2000 sq km? (Unless they define district to meant everything SOUTH of the Jenkin Fault?)
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 8 2011, 03:00 PM


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Thought I would keep a new year's resolution and start a new topic!:)

This is The Seasons by lesser-known 19th & 20th century Russian composer, Alexander Glazunov
Heard it live some time ago, amazing to watch all the different instruments & percussion being played.

Intro & Winter http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37fyRO3s66w...feature=related
Spring http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aQ8TMuYCBU...feature=related
Summer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBJPhblRS5g...feature=related
Coda & Autumn http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf3wvHLpIBM...feature=related

and the stunning Autumn Adagio & Finale http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJs2iJj3Z6E...feature=related



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Glazunov
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Commander C
Posted on: Jan 8 2011, 11:14 AM


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Yeh had a look last night at commercialisation options for hypothetical Zola discovery:

* connect to East Spar pipeline, after Halyard/Spar# in decline
* connect to East Spar pipeline (if spare capacity) and expand Varanus Island production facility, while Halyard/Spar at full production
* connect to Apache & Santos' John Brookes pipeline (further away), if East Spar pipeline is fully utilised
* build own pipeline to Varanus Island
* build own pipeline connecting to new processing facilities on mainland WA
--- probably requires $8/GJ gas contract to be economic, based on Reindeer/Caribou development cost and gas contract deals
* connect to existing Tubridgi pipeline network and facilities
--- if these are large enough to handle production and are in good working order



#Apache (55%) and Santos (45%) are developing Halyard/Spar
--- which has somewhere between 300-600 bcf and 8-16 million barrels of condensate.
--- and where gas will be piped along the unused East Spar pipeline also owned by Apache and Santos.
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 09:14 PM


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any idea what the other largest undrilled structures in shallow water Carnarvon basin are?smile.gif
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 09:07 PM


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BP, hopefully not another Artemis!

So was what TAP said on 1 December fact rather than opinion: "One of the largest undrilled structural features in the Carnarvon Basin..."?

Question is what happens if end up with <1 tcf of gas discovered --- presumably will be high(er) cost development in 280m of water?
So will want to find lots of liquids and not so much CO2 too!

(John Brookes was developed for around A$300 million in 2000-2005 dollars, but is only in 45-75m of water --- plus one can guess that some toll or effective toll had to be paid to use the Varanus Island facilities.)
http://www.santos.com/exploration-acreage/...hn-brookes.aspx
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 08:28 PM


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Cap Raising timing methinks will be somehow related to:

* on holiday
* hmm back at work, time to start preparing the quarterly report
* ooh looks like a bit thin in xxx quarter --- need to raise some money, must prepare board paper on this
* draft and submit paper to board in advance of board meeting
* board meeting approves, yee-hah
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 08:24 PM


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lol Duster shrewdy tactic works best if can somehow access low broker commissions (in Aus or NZ)!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 04:54 PM


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Alas obdc, nothing too interesting in the drilling results!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 04:49 PM


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hilariously funny Yeti!:)
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 04:46 PM


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me too!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 04:08 PM


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share price settling around 5c --- wonder when results will be released??
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 02:32 PM


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FAR, SUR, PCL --- any others of similar status and type we should be keeping an eye on?

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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 12:50 PM


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Hi Wasa and Duster

Yes I was meaning if you are taking a gamble, but don't want to immediately commit funds to PCL.

If you love PCL then of course you would hold PCL, which gives you option of "arbitraging" any rights or spp issues.

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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 08:38 AM


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and buying $500 then selling $500, but retaining 1 share smile.gif
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 08:32 AM


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Also the next cap raising might be a rights issue --- but the type of rights issue where you can subscribe for new shares IN Addition to your allocation...and get allocated additional new shares if there is a shortfall

some companies do this too

all the tricks of the trade:)
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 7 2011, 07:14 AM


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Good point. Yes have my $500 already.

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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 6 2011, 05:49 PM


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cleared 10c alright Mick!
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 6 2011, 12:21 PM


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yeh his holdings in BAS, MOG, and Octanex always confused me
why so many all holding interests in the same or similar permits
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 6 2011, 05:48 AM


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undervalued is a relative term now mon ami!

- is it undervalued compared to ARE and TAS et al?

- and is it undervalued compared to a bear market, ranging market, bull market?

I know it was absolutely cheap at 4c (as below net cash and/or net quick assets) --- question is what has changed that would make it absolutely cheap now?

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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 07:37 PM


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This is my simple pre-geo 101 synopsis:

Once upon a time Earth was a giant snowball.
The giant supercontinent Rodinia ruled half the planet, surrounded by frozen oceans and glaciers.
Earlier Rodinia had blocked the Polar seas from circulating into the warmer equator, thus causing temperatures to drop and the Earth to become very very cold.

After a while, though, the thick blanket of ice made the surface of the earth get hotter.
Volcanoes starting erupting everywhere, melting the ice.
The erupting volcanoes also caused Rodinia to gradually break apart into smaller continents surrounded by shallow seas, allowing ocean currents to flow again and the Polar seas to circulate and the Earth to warm...this was the end of the age of ice and the beginning of life.



Question is --- where does the oil come from? Dead trilobytes?
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 07:19 PM


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Hi Apache and others

You got any geological or reservoir engineering oriented thoughts or comments on Georgina basin --- EP 127 and EP 128 (BKP and PFC/AEC) and EP 103 and EP 104 (PFC/AEC)

Why has no one thought of billions of barrels of unconventional oil here from the time of "Rodinia" before?

Commander
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 06:23 PM


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me still waiting for phosphate prices to zoom up --- must be the only commodity not to this year!!!
need a Chinese ban on phosphate exports lol
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 06:11 PM


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still waiting --- anyone else holding and watching?
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 06:03 PM


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TNG up recently on highest volume for yonks (2 million shares, albeit <1% of issued capital)

although spreads still wide (4.8c-5.6c)
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 5 2011, 05:57 PM


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I am still around wasa - why is AXT going up???
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Commander C
Posted on: Jan 4 2011, 07:12 PM


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One important factor is also if they are going to get reservoir engineering advice from a credible consultant --- i.e. someone who can estimate what likely production profiles could be and thus whether looking at <1 million barrels or somewhere between 1 and 5 million barrels.

maybe you have to write in and ask them to (even though that would be common sense)
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 06:33 PM


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methodology seems to be

Take historical P/E from FY98 to FY10
Apply 25-35% takeover premium for 100% control
let's say this is makes it 7-8 times PE

working out average seasonal earnings based on EBITDA for FY98 to FY10, removing abnormals
work out ongoing depreciation and interest costs
check no big capex maintenance requirements

Apply takeover PE to average seasonal NPAT
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 06:28 PM


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Lonergan Edwards valuation Book VI, verses 119 to 171...
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 06:22 PM


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Yeh I think it was the 3 April 2007 Target Statement (18 megabytes)
try stocknessmonster ticker code QCH
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?...SX&N=186754

looked at 10 years of earnings for NAM and QCH to get historical earnings
then applied historical multiple and takeover multiple for QCH and may have done so for NAM else said something about discount that NAM should trade to QCH due to co-op

can update NAM historical average earnings for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 09:57 AM


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anyone following NAM? NAM valuation can be found in QCH takeover docs.
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 27 2010, 08:51 PM


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will be interesting to find out the specific reasons the mid-case resource size has increased --- and on what new data
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 26 2010, 07:11 PM


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Anyone following TNG?
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 26 2010, 06:58 PM


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Hi Rubra

Re colloquialisms...what do mean by "Festinavir not a patch on ATC" --- ATC better results or Festinavir better results?

Cheers


Commander
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 23 2010, 11:12 AM


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who is republic and their backers?
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 05:09 PM


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Exploration update out at Peak Hill, Doolgunna
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 05:04 PM


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Wolverine ALY almost back to where it started (40c, now 50c)....hmmm is 50 the new 40 with all the latest info I wonder...
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 05:03 PM


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Damon22 you still following MLM, MTE, COK?

I hold slim portion of MLM, an OK holding in COK and am empty of MTE.

Share prices of all have been "hovering" last couple of months.
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 05:00 PM


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Anyone still following SRL, and has worked out a value range for the non-coaly part?
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 03:26 PM


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merger termination official
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Commander C
Posted on: Dec 21 2010, 12:15 PM


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New resources estimate out, looks like:

15 mmt DSO @ 57% Fe
180 mmt BFO @ 38% Fe

plus three exploration targets at Area F (west) targetting up to another 15 mmt high-grade Fe
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