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db76
Posted on: Jan 1 2021, 12:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

In the old days they just played the game
Big controversies like body line made the news
Today social media and the rapacious mainstream media want anything to fill the 24/7 news cycle
Anything is fodder, a bowler tripping over , a bouncer hitting a helmet
The more alarming the better
It is as though marginal entrants to the Test arena
Are trying to modify the conditions of the contest
Im not too good at hooking bouncers for 6
So could you please ban them for me and all the others like me
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Dec 2 2020, 07:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

All the political elites are taking advantage of the electorate being distracted by the COVID "Emergency" to introduce more of their crazy Woke agenda.
NZ has spent vast amounts on COVID
Their income sources especially tourism will take a while to recover
Where is the money coming from?
To fund the response to this Wokey Climate Emergency Alarmism
The politicians are inhaling their own rectitude
Soon to be rebadged by the reality of unsustainable debt as their stupidity
What has happened to the NZ War on feral animals?
How many fewer possums, stoats, cats, rabbits, ferrets, minks, foxes, pigs , rats are there now?
All hot air!
You can tell when a politician is on the level when the drivel flows from both sides of their mouth.
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Aug 13 2020, 12:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

The fact that we have not heard of any APP notifications from the government propaganda channels means that the APP is Useless
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Jul 17 2020, 07:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

BIOVYZR 1.0
Looks good
No one will come near you
Only US$249 on special
Might become mandatory for the nightclub set smile.gif

Like the gear used on that movie "The Hurt Locker"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Jul 12 2020, 02:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Real reporters are very important but not to the mainstream media.
You are right about the cut-paste mentality
They save money by plagiarism

You know a real reporter when their outlet is attacked by the politicians and the MSM
The MSM doesn't tolerate dissent from the anointed line

There are some inciteful blogs out there
Try Quillette
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: May 8 2020, 02:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

You raise a good point about HIV etc.
They could just as well make the app universal so it covers any notifiable disease.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 4 2020, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

This thread started when cash was worth something
In 2005 you could get 5.5%+
Today you get effectively a negative interest rate
CBA settlement account pays 0% and their Saver account pays 0.05%
There is a lot of cash earning less than nothing
Cash may be still be king because you are "guaranteed" to maintain the face value of your stash
Whereas the alternatives are more likely to erode it away.

What do you do with it?
Bank deposits - hard to find a term deposit that pays 2%
ASX - Dividends shot, banks provisioning for Armageddon, iron ore price at whim of china, oil price kaput with 2nd order effects coming
Property - Immigration the driver of the market to be cut, mortgage defaults , rent defaults, few international students wanting units, too many units in pipeline
Gold - always around but subject to big swings
Spend It -?

Once the covid emergency is over reality and its judgement will return.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 25 2020, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

He is just providing some lateral thinking.
It may be better if he kept it to himself.
He seems to lack situational awareness.
He generally speaks and acts the same way wherever he is.
That is good and bad.
Good as he often cuts through the BS the panicky COVID modellers and experts throw up as gospel.
Bad in that he opens himself up to criticism from his opponents.
I didn't interpret his comments as saying he was favouring injection of disinfectant.
He was favouring a search for solutions and just encouraging that.
In an election year he is a target and all the naysayers have him in their sights.

Jonathan Swift said:
"When a true genius appears you can know him by this sign;
That all the dunces are in a confederacy against him"

I don't think Trump is a true genius but I'm sure that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

I think the swedes see that the deaths would have occurred anyway but later on.
In a severe shutdown there is little population immunity developed, and with necessary relaxation the risk of severe outbreaks and more deaths.
They are trying to "inoculate" their population so they are more resistant for the longer term..
A vaccine is unlikely for 18 months or more , if at all.

They also rely on their population taking sensible precautions.
and they are not restriction free having undertaken some shut-down actions.

I doubt that their internal economy has been damaged as much as in other countries.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 08:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

It is surreal watching the pandemic curve unfold
From what I've read three waves are normal
Relax then next wave relax next wave and so on until it vanishes
We can't keep locked down for too long
When new cases are in a falling trend parts of the economy should open up

How will the govt reverse the stimulus measures
When some one is given money they will not want to give it up, they will want more
How will it all be funded when other countries doing same thing
COVID Bonds?
Can Australia afford to keep paying for the stalled economy
I doubt that govt can hold up the east coast real estate market
Though it has been suggested that real estate will be the new gold(by RE investor of course)

As interest on cash investment account is almost zero

Are we heading for hyper inflation fuelled by the printing presses

I agree with you that stock market is in dead cat bounce
We have had first big down leg followed by bounce then to come - drop then bounce then second big leg down followed by same sequence
And hopefully consolidation.






  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 1 2019, 01:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

"Going to Bunnings" is the vibe

  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Jan 27 2017, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Is the Australian east coast Sydney - Melbourne real estate markets in a bubble ?

A bubble primer - context Canada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC6GStFNR8g

What is so different about Australia that will sustain our bubble and prevent the bubble burst?

Both have chinese money pouring in.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Nov 23 2016, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Here is another good one from Auckland NZ, as bad if not worse than Sydney.

From a "Lion" of the market.

"Secret to buying Auckland property: 'use parents' house', says super investor"

"Hoy Fong, an Auckland Property Investors Association member and property coach, is encouraging Aucklanders whose parents own houses to use that to get their own homes"

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=11753446

What will happen when interest rates go up and property values stop rising ?

At some point there will a rush for the exit and property isn't very liquid.













  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Nov 22 2016, 05:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

This one bells the cat.

From The Australian Business Review 21/11/16

In the Article developer Mr Triguboff is quoted as saying : - "There is no housing bubble, I promise you"










  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 27 2016, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Good news , sold out of sugarloaf at profit

Will pay off debt

Huge rise today
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Jan 25 2016, 12:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Shows that banks are not exactly keen on foreclosing, as they would have to write off a vast amount

Provisioning for $2.5bn only indicates caution as they don't want to collapse the house

The outstanding bank loans to oilers must be a huge total

Anyone know how much?
  Forum: Macro Factors

db76
Posted on: Apr 13 2011, 01:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

You see it well

The USD weakening further dragging the AUD upwards until no more commodity price rises can be sustained

Then the bubble bursts
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 6 2010, 01:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

wasa,

He is just being hesitant or maybe trying to show the futures market who is the boss dog, and he will put rates up next month !

Back in 08 he left rates high too long so he is overcorrecting this time the other way

Real estate still seems to be going bonkers and the whole range of dodgy lending practices - no deposit loans seem to be in the news again

Banks are sitting on mountains of cash they has to be pushed somewhere

The hesitancy seems to reveal that none of us including the banks and the RBA really believe deep down, that with the USA and the Eurozone stuffed that any significant progress will be made, and China is simply spending its savings on a Hope. How long can they keep it going ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 5 2010, 06:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

What planet is he from ?

"Financial markets are still characterised by a degree of uncertainty" -- when will they ever be otherwise ?

He should have put up rates and he will regret today as inflation is booming - maybe traded goods are low but asset markets like housing are again running beserk.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Sep 28 2010, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

How do they do it in other countries ? Europe - inheritance is typical

We think we have unlimited land hence the vast urban sprawl ,while we have very limited liveable land mostly near the coast which so happens to be the arable land which we have built on

Europeans value their land for what it can provide , so live more vertically with smaller dwellings

Imagine if a tribe of australian real estate developers gained the upper hand in the UK - there wouldnt be a green field left anywhere just a sea of houses - like Kellyville which was once a place of dairy farms but now is a nightmare of legoland houses.
All those people could have been well accommodated on half the land footprint so that you would have had some parks or even places left that could grow food

The realisation that our land is really limited is catching up with us
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Sep 10 2010, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

blatant money printing

you forecast very high inflation to wipe away the debts

didnt work in zimbabwe

visionary america - a new green revolution - if they can exchange their inventiveness for export income well and good but the rest of the world needs to be convinced that they need the US products - physical or intellectual - more than the US needs their products to make a difference to the US economy
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Aug 17 2010, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

you are right to be sceptical - if it cant be reduced to a simple net bottom line it is too complex.

I suggest that if you do have a query about the RBA statistics email them with your question reduced to the simple level you are interested in - they may be able to assist

also if you are interested Steve Keen who has a "rogue" economist status may answer your debt questions - his website has a lot of processed RBA data SteveKeen

If the RBA the US Fed and all the others were so good and the reporting systems so transparent were they simply asleep and allowed the GFC to happen - any conclusion would have to be that they were incompetent in the role that was expected of them

but the politicians were involved and they have no tether to Reason - just populism for re-election - cant have prudential advice getting between a voter and a 100% no-interest loan can we ?

as one commentator has said the Financial System would be best assured by the absence of so called "Smart people" experimenting with "fancy products"

Accountants need no more than 4 function maths --- not complex at all

it is when the accountants cant fulfil the needs of the Greedy fast enough that tricks to increase leverage were introduced

reduced to its roots a financial system should be a simple loan service for which you pay a reasonable fee

the "financial services industry" is an apt name - a Service industry not a Growth industry - a service at a reasonable utility type profit


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Aug 10 2010, 12:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Sounds like a signal for the TRUE TOP of the Australian Real Estate Bubble

Australians will gamble on a Fly crawling up a wall - are CFDs a gamble ? does a Pie need sauce ?

banks exposed 60%+ to RE biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jul 24 2010, 08:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Wren,

Steve has already done the walk , months ago - he had the courage of his convictions

He walked the talk

as for Rory - he is a smug fellow and his time may come ? - but as we know the RE moral hazard is so high with the unrelenting govt tinkering that the govt will keep on doing it for as long as they can afford to

RE never goes down in Australia !

That Grantham bloke should just shut up and let us have our moment in the sun buying and selling houses with not a worry biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jul 21 2010, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

like ASIC was for HIH, onetel, opes prime , storm, trees and all the other disasters on its watch - an expensive farce

rory robertson reckons there is absolutely no problem in RE - can only ever go up

as 75% of the debt is held by the top 40% of income earners

like to see Rory drag his pampered self to Mount Kosciuszko
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jul 11 2010, 11:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Good Find biggrin.gif

similar to Pat Condell - direct passionate speaker - but different topic

see if you like Pat - PatCondell

Dmitry Orlov's book Re-inventing Collapse is a good read - his thesis is that the Russian collapse of the early 1990s is the old benchmark but the USA looks likely to set the new one

Orlov
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jun 11 2010, 11:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

They Should have parachuted Kevin to assist her biggrin.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: May 29 2010, 08:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

My view is that we are still on course for a repeat of the resolution of the 1987 event at the least

very similar to what you describe - years to go yet

and that is being optimistic when you consider that 1987 was before Greenspan really let loose and supported financial
engineering to make money out of thin air biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 28 2010, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Mr Henry has crossed the political rubicon - instead of sound advice he now seems to provide political spin

especially his generalisation of the miners real world behavior in controlling their labour costs (in the face of falling commodity prices ,closing mines and retrenching labour) to the rest of the economy artificially buoyed up by the handouts from Mr Rudd

How out of touch is this bloke to say that if the rest of the economy had done what the miners did in their retrenchment that the unemployment rate would have been 19%

Sure - when we have "Productive" Government departments and Qangos employing vast numbers of people who are never face the real world and are never likely to ever be retrenched under any circumstances - just moved around

The other Real Non-Govt world retrenched as well but labour was soaked up in the long list of projects the Govt dreamt up to pour money into the economy

As many commentators from outside of Australia have observed - How smart is this Government to attack the mining sector which brings in external income ?

In the world of Mr Henry there are no consequences - he provides his programmatic prognostications to satisfy his employer and that is his job !

A Gold Medal performance - "Often in Error but Never in Doubt"
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 24 2010, 03:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Australia still is at Stage 0 - low-moderate Public debt but High Private debt

if our Housing market turns causing problems for the banks which have 50%+ of their assets exposed to RE then the process will begin - socialising of the private debt

RE never falls in Australia biggrin.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 23 2010, 10:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

the "perpetual" interest only loan

the tempting assumption of inflation forever biggrin.gif


InterestOnly

QUOTE
Mr Koch wants to position the bank as a "mortgage partner for life", with borrowers carrying the same interest-only loan from property to property for as long as they wish, accumulating equity from rising house prices as they go.

Then, as they near retirement, they could sell their property for a big enough profit to pay off the original loan and buy a smaller place outright, leaving them mortgage-free. Or, they could keep the mortgage going and repay the original capital from their estate, after death.

These loans has been popular for years in the UK and Europe, where repaying capital is seen by many as unnecessary and prohibitively expensive.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 21 2010, 01:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

I know this has been posted before - but it is based on the premise that financial crises are not resolved in one year as the "V Shaped" School would have you believe . There is some evidence from the past biggrin.gif , but for consolation say repeatedly "The past is not a predictor of the future" - as if that will do any good.


remember the fools who went bust in 29, the sensible people lost in 30, the bargain hunters got smashed in 31 but the really smart money got wiped out in 32.

remember the fools who went bust in 2008, the sensible people lost in 2009, the bargain hunters got smashed in 2010 but the really smart money got wiped out in 2011.



Let us HOPE that we are not on the above schedule


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 21 2010, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

NH,

I am not against a RRT - we have had state royalties for ages

but a retrospective grab at the profitability of exisiting projects is effectively a nationalisation - the huge investments in those projects were based on the sovereign terms and conditions at their inception - would they have been started had the RSPT been in place ?

It is trite to look at what has been achieved by hard work and capital risk and conveniently forget the path to the present

I am against more erosion of state autonomy as a centralist like Mr Rudd and his army of bureaucrats in Canberra may have
even more on their agenda

but you have to admit that what Mr Rudd did was hasty and only so he could include
the RSPT in his budget papers as a big inflow to wipe out the debt - a cynical politician even in the naming of the tax as a "super" , nicely segued with a 3% increase in "super" for all australians to be paid for by employers

cant you see that Mr Rudd is the "Dead Hand" on the economy ? You have to go way back more than 30yrs to find a similarity.

he seemed to anticipate the miner's outrage and concluded that he would "crash through" with his 40% ambit

he says he wants to negotiate with the miners but about what , the timing ? - he never involved them at the outset, no wonder they are frustrated, and he refuses to broaden the terms of negotiation.

a Leader would have recognised the miners ,not as evil pillagers of our precious resources but as partners in their profitable exploitation , and involved them at the outset but like everything else he has tried and the list of failures is well documented he rushed it out . Let us hope that he eventually does negotiate properly. A Win for the citizen and Not-so-bad Loss for the Miners.

the miners "practical intelligence" will dominate the Idiocy of the politicians and bureaucrats - they will do their sums and make real business decisions.

like under the PRRT new development will slow down, Tax is too high and why risk your capital here when your experience is that
you were lulled into a false sense of security and then pole-axed by a Left Wing administration


Economists -- high in theoretical intelligence , but how many do we need to actually make australia productive ? - since when does a new tax do that ? -- will it make it "affordable" for more australians to enter the "sheltered workshop" and be public servants ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 21 2010, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

QUOTE
Do something for Australia and for ALL Australians


Yes - Think rationally about the group we have put in charge of our nation and do something about it

what about the hundreds of billions in infrastructure invested by resource companies over many years ?

what value would be Mr Rudd assign to those assets ? - as they are built on australian soil they must belong to him

what value did Mr Chavez assign to the infrastructure developed by Oil companies in his socialist paradise ?

Mr Garnaut thinks in terms of taxation elegance as does Mr Henry - a high level of theoretical intelligence but a low level of practical intelligence

"Fine tuning" - lol

If Mr Garnuat was involved in the PRRT why does he now see the retrospective nature of the RSPT as "Fair", when the PRRT applied to new projects


Fear campaigns - "a fight for democracy" + Flanneryist type climate exaggerations - are ridiculous

Lucky for Mr Garnaut that Lihir Gold is mining Lihir island

For the good of Australia I hope reason prevails
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 14 2010, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

we will have to wait and see how the big miner's accountants work it out - they are not as exposed with their offshore revenues

they wont stop mining in Australia - but some new projects/expansions under consideration spurred by demand from china may be cancelled.The miners know that china is simply in crisis mode closing its GDP gap until the Eurozone and USA recovers. They could use the RSPT as a catalyst to respond to that looming threat. Or the "Resource Cycle" is now a fallacy !

In your area of australia does a "early childhood education" classroom really cost $500k ? - it does in my area and elsewhere around Australia. Totally and utterly mismanaged. - and the Insulation program !

But you could say that the govt imperative was simply to close our GDP gap by pouring money into the economy by any means so any proper planning and management would have taken too long and been counter-productive to that aim. In that case they succeeded but some contractors have become very rich as a result. Maybe not much different from wartime expenditures.

"Reckless" -- If they are now moving to fiscal consolidation why are they not cutting spending as well as increasing taxes. They are betting one way on china with no fallback position, hoping to have it all and the miners pay for it not just by the RSPT but by the extra 3% wages bill for Super. No pain at all for voters -- the "lucky country" forever.

"Saved " - only delayed I think as China will slow down when the realisation that the Eurozone and USA are stuffed and unlikely to demand excessive consumption fuelled by home equity withdrawals for many years. The growth by debt model seems broken.

China though could still keep its current track for years as we have discussed before --- "stronger for longer" may be true

maybe 2012 biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: May 14 2010, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

the resource companies expense vast amounts of money in Australia before they can get any profit

this is way beyond the amounts that would be collected by a RSPT, so if a project is cancelled due to ROR considerations because of the RSPT the loss of expenditure would hurt us more

I agree with your point about the depletion but the govt can stop reckless spending and put more aside for the future - "the future fund" biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 30 2010, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

that "exiled" link is priceless - where did you get it ? - biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 30 2010, 01:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

this link explains how greece "functions"

Greece
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 28 2010, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

for your amusement

RatHole

the www.dailybail.com sure has some good comedy as well - Taleb features
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 28 2010, 11:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

GreyWolf the manager of Timberwolf biggrin.gif

like asking a wolf why it eats meat

the Greenspan Bernanke combo caused the problem by making money too available - they are responsible

all Goldman Sachs did was eat what was placed in front of them

remember that Greenspan famously declared that risk was reduced by it being spread around by the fancy derivative securities some of which GS developed and deployed

the GS interrogation is an exercise in deflecting blame from the politicians and the Federal Reserve

GS may have stretched the envelope but they may not have broken the law - which is why they all look so smug as from the GS wolf lair the senators asking the questions are just displaying their naivety

if there is no law against something then it is legal -- GS push against that boundary, morals, ethics dont enter at all
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 22 2010, 03:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

what we really want to know is of all the homes sold what % and $ value are sold to foreigners?

where is that statistic ? - anyone know smile.gif

the Govt wants foreign $ coming in and cant afford to let housing drop

another committee devilsmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 22 2010, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

the previous housing bubbles in australia have been resolved by the market stagnating while incomes have accelerated to revert to the long term price/income multiple trend

our leader keen on inflation, committed to the real estate market and supportive of our great banks exposed to 70% mortgages , will enable more wage inflation if he can

who knows ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 20 2010, 01:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

you have probably seen this one on GS from rolling stone

VampireSquid
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 20 2010, 01:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

No not that -- "..stop loans for third-home purchases"

This will just mean that more chinese will be buying in Melbourne biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 15 2010, 02:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Steve Keen is doing the walk , paying the price for being a RE bear

maybe that is the signal to SHORT the BANKS

as well as the Complacency of "RE only ever goes UP" in the LuckyCountry
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 14 2010, 03:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

here is one for you on Acronyms - hope it is not regarded as political

AustraliaAcronymCountry
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 13 2010, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

we seem to have become China's Province 23

they are spending their savings keeping their gdp up and also buying the rest of the world - in the hope that the western economies will start spending again

to hedge their bets they have also cornered a lot of world manufacturing so if we want essentials then they will always out compete our home manufacture so we are dependant

if they revalue their currency their RE speculators will be able to buy more australian houses bidding up the price further

Ireland was a "Celtic Tiger" - lionised for quite a while - all that borrowed money misallocated into housing

We are tagged the "Lucky Country" - not hard working or smart , simply Lucky , (except for QLD "The smart state")

Our banks do have close to 70% in mortgages - reluctant to invest in risky businesses when RE is a home run (or a misallocation)

Our governments have always interfered in the housing market - the Government "PUT" - I can only see that stopping when the govt is confronted with the fact that it cant borrow enough money to continue it

Our credit rating is based on our resources income - looks good for now but again dependant on china's ability to continue

"straight line growth projections" -- unlikely , but china probably has enough $ to continue for a few years

it does seem too good to be true
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 13 2010, 12:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

NH - as a sinophile I'm sure you have read this one

GMO_Chancellor

and The Age has finally seen it

ChinaBubble

sorry if it is a repeat as you are usually way ahead of me biggrin.gif

Chancellor seems to be two years in advance of his predictions "coming true" so maybe 2012 for the China Bust ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Apr 8 2010, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

"the irrationality can last a fair bit longer than others might think - maybe even three or four more years"

china heading off "stronger for longer" , "stronger forever" spending its savings holding the ship together and buying up as much of the rest of the world as it can

until the savings run out and the income expected from the expected resurgent euro and america doesnt eventuate

as for the financial system - conclusion seems to be that it has now "proved" itself !

it is good at inflation and as that is the basis of the "growth by debt" model why "mess" with it again biggrin.gif


I know you are familiar with Taleb - his black swans will keep popping up - there is no equilbrium
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 31 2010, 11:48 AM


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Posts: 1,661

the sellers think they have all the power

3month contracts are better except when the demand falls

I agree that irrational-exuberance might be here again

but do we have enough courage to buy PUTs on RIO and BHP ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 25 2010, 02:09 PM


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Posts: 1,661

it is a bit like climbing your wall of worry except the wall is very high and retreating is no longer possible

either reach the top and continue at that altitude or crash

I reckon that 4500 will still be a hopeful target for 2010 calendar year end

the May sell off is yet to come

and of all the PIIGS - Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain

Portugal now exposed after Greece - what next ?

but China still spending , buying up Australia
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 25 2010, 11:14 AM


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they have non recourse loans in the US so the risk is higher for the bank

if the owner walks away the house is foreclosed and the bank takes a writedown and tries to sell its asset in a depressed market

their scheme is to encourage a potential walk-off to hang on and so avoid the bank a write off

In australia the "borrower" or "home owner" as we would describe the individual would just keep making the payments until he couldnt.

at that point our nice banks would negotiate a new re-payment schedule over 50yrs or encourage the owner to sell the property so they get their money back

worst case - the bank calls on the mortgage insurance the borrower paid for and the borrower's assets if any
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 25 2010, 10:52 AM


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if they had surveyed those who owned or were buying their property then 100% would say there is no bubble

those they surveyed must have been "aspiring" buyers

if you have looked at www.doctorhousingbubble.com and other such USA sites over the last 5yrs the warning was there.
In the USA housing had always been a traditional conservative regime where 30yr fixed loans were the norm. Then came the "financial engineers" who managed to develop ways to amplify money even more . The classic symptom for me was the californian market where sellers were demanding that potential buyers submit their "resumes" before they would be allowed to view the property, The Seller "power" was too great caused by too many "eligible" buyers.

The correct answer to the survey was "Forever" if you consider the evidence of the Govt response and interventions in the market over the last 30yrs - yet only 7% got it right.

Inflation is the only certainty in our financial system.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 24 2010, 11:17 AM


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lesson

- do it the chinese way or go away
- the chinese way is ambiguous
- the chinese "way" depends on the circumstances

Province 23 had better do as it is told
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 13 2010, 01:40 PM


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shows how many were employed in the RE industry and its multipliers

also the equity withdrawal re-finance bonanza they had which raised demand

our man at the top will support australia's RE forever -- cant afford to have the implosion the US has had

whatever you think of the US their citizens have few illusions about the govt helping them out too much - unlike Australia
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 10 2010, 12:42 AM


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NH
Flower

I think I have the "answer" to China ( courtesy Sun Tzu)

It could be one or more or any permutation of the adages below or none of them biggrin.gif

1. To see victory when it is obvious is no sign of excellence or cleverness. To lift an autumn leaf requires no great strength, to see the sun or moon does not indicate keen eyes, and to hear thunder does not necessitate sharp ears.

2. As a log or stone rolls down a hill good soldiers seek effectiveness from momentum.


3. Be extremely secretive, subtle and mysterious in your battle plans.

4. Warfare is fluid. It changes continuously just as water will adapt its form to the earth. He who can change tactics in relation to his enemy or opponent will succeed in winning.







  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 9 2010, 02:51 PM


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Probably not -- but they dont produce all they need for the current rate of internal stimulation so they have to pay for imports - our iron ore and coal. At present this must be coming from their reserves - how long will that last ? Once their reserves are depleted they will have to rely on exports more to fund a lower level of GDP gap filling unless the west returns to previous excessive consumption.

we should thank the chinese for producing cheap tools and other stuff as it keeps our inflation down but it also gives them monopoly power, having decimated western manufacturers, so they can increase prices at will

and the whole asian region is linked - japan - sth korea - taiwan - all with the same business model to produce stuff for he western consuming economies and part manufactures for each other

but the west really cant do without cheap asian essential goods as most countries have practically ceased manufacturing and sell each other services - 70% Consumer economies

Crash or a Dip ? - Im still of the view that the current exuberance will be extinguished by the drawn out USA situation,
with a significant pull back - more than a dip. China will be affected as it is in "Hope" mode that the West will re-commence the levels of consumption from 2yrs ago. If that Hope is hit then you would expect china to batten down the hatches.

we can wax lyrical like Gspan used to do - unintelligible - but the evidence will be in hindsight

Bonds - ? - are you suggesting that the Chinese will ask the US for their money back so they can keep stimulating or will China keep buying US bonds to stimulate the US ? The US would just roll the presses some more if China wants the money ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 9 2010, 11:14 AM


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we know by now that most crashes occur when there is an overshoot of exuberance over the reality

Gspan called it "irrational exuberance" - He identified it but did nothing about it

The time gap between the exuberance and the crash is variable and unpredictable but the crash is almost certain

Booms-Crashes are a characteristic of our financial systems - just normal

have you read :- This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly ~ Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth Rogoff

China may continue on its exponential growth path but 8-9% of a large number becomes more and more each year so in any growth the % would be expected to fall

Intuition - tells me that there will be a dip again this year - China pumping internal demand in the hope of returning export demand from the west especially the USA maybe be disappointed considering intractable umemployment . From the history of all the crashes there has never been one which had a simple V shaped recovery, they are normally at least 2 to 3 stage events

The only certainty is higher inflation everywhere to try and devalue debt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 4 2010, 12:12 AM


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good point by you - as usual biggrin.gif

how long did it take japan to concrete-over their country

China will continue to surprise us - they must have a lot more ghost apartment blocks , cities and shopping centres to build

??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Mar 3 2010, 10:21 AM


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DR article China: No Shortcut to Greatness -- ChinaShortcut

QUOTE
The Chinese economy must be getting out of control, because the Chinese government is doing the unthinkable: It is desperately trying to put the brakes on the economy. When you pump a stimulus package that represents 14% of GDP through a fire hose into an economy, which was already on shaky bubble foundation, in a very short time you’ll have some serious unintended consequences -- you’ll get super bubbles. 


---------------------

Though Chinese economic growth in the past was very high, more recently the quality of growth has been low. For example, in an echo of past Chinese government asset-allocation decisions, China built the largest shopping mall in the world, the South China Mall, which is still 99% vacant years after construction. China also built a whole city, Ordos, in Inner Mongolia, on spec for one million residents who never appeared. 



our RBA - absolutely convinced that Australia is SPECIAL (Unique even unlike any other commodity exporter)

Are we not a commodity exporter dependent upon China/Japan who make product for western nations to consume and so if consumption remains stagnant or falls wont China (eventually - when ?) have less income to continue buying our commodities at the Current rate ?


Interview with Schiller on ABC 730 report 2/3/10 - Schiller
double dip in USA very likely ?
and his comments on chinese and australian real estate "Bubbles" resonated the close coupling of Australia-China Fates

QUOTE
KERRY O'BRIEN: Australia's housing downturn was relatively short-lived and we're now heating up again quite substantially in most cities. What's your instinctive reaction to that?

ROBERT SHILLER: I would imagine that it has bubble aspects to it. But, you know, maybe I shouldn't say; I'm a foreigner, I'm not ... I was recently in China and I got to talk to a lot of people. And I could smell and sniff a bubble there. What I mean by that is I could see that people's judgments were influenced by rising prices, and the rising prices were amplifying for them optimistic stories, and that's what happens in a bubble. We've seen this happen in the United States. I've been doing questionnaire surveys, and during the - in 2003, when our boom was going gangbusters, we were seeing 15 to 20 per cent expected returns for 10 years. People thought it's gonna go on forever. I know because we've done questionnaires and asked them. And it was a wild expectation. It was generated out of excitement from the real estate price increase. And we know that the cities where prices were going up more, there were stronger long-term expectations. These expectations were ultimately violated because the prices came down, but - so I don't think they were rational expectations; they were bubble expectations. And there's an easy tendency for this to happen again. So when I hear that in Australia prices are going out rapidly, I'm inclined to suspect that something similar to what has happened in China is happening. And I think that the Australians may well be deceived, just as we were in the United States, by the sense that prices never fall here. That Australia hasn't seen any significant drop of prices, that seems to mean, in a very intuitive way of thinking, that it can't happen here. But that's exactly what ultimately makes it happen.



but who can recognise a bubble ?

and isnt the current australian RE bubble good for us as people could start to borrow more on the back of their increased RE wealth to buy more RE or Stuff ? - if the banks let them do equity withdrawals biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 24 2010, 05:20 PM


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this is a good link - with a bit of Keen and Robertson thrown in

MortgageDebt


make sure you read the comments as well


Chinese diversifying into offshore assets
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 16 2010, 11:27 AM


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Australia is still filling up

A land of opportunity for immigrants invited in because our own people dont breed enough

We all hope that Keen's 40% fall never eventuates, and Im sure any govt will do anything to prevent it

Hence the error in Keen's rationalist "hands off" analysis - Govts depend on voters who buy real estate - govt in australia seems always to be ready to socialise the losses to the maximum extent of taxpayer capacity and commodities income

QUOTE
Professor Keen will wear a t-shirt with the words, “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices. Ask me how.”


The site will highlight the 224 kilometre journey on foot from Parliament House in Canberra to Mount Kosciuszko in the Snowy Mountains he is making in April, after losing a wager with Macquarie Bank analyst Rory Robertson that home prices would fall 40 per cent from peak to trough in a year

He also reminded Mr Robertson that the second part of the bet - whether Australian home prices would drop 40 per cent over 10 to 15 years - “is still alive and well.”

“Rory may yet have to follow in my footsteps,” he said.

Mr Robertson said in November that if Australian house prices ever fell by 40 per cent from any peak in his lifetime, he would follow in Professor Keen's footsteps


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 15 2010, 11:27 AM


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Treasure - did you watch BHP's Kloppers on ABC Insiders "exposing" the strategy of selling Iron Ore on the Spot Market to provide guidance for the benchmark negotiations coming up? His logic is that the Spot Market has revealed a price for you the Buyers so just sign up.

Makes you wonder about the arrogance of it all and the balance between Suppliers and Buyers in a time when the big western consumer economies seem to be having a long rest . Let's hope china can keep consuming Western Australia.

Anyway to know that you reckon the current market is undervalued is interesting

I still reckon more shocks are still coming and maybe XJO at about 4500 will be a figure we talk about for quite some time
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 15 2010, 11:13 AM


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Jevons paradox - more efficient devices , cars, mobile phones etc will probably lead to more total energy use

it would give the large population centres like china the energy headroom to use more cars

world energy consumption has only trended up and no matter what the energy is derived from it will still go up

Im not sure that more efficient cars will buy more time for peak oil , but as you point out Peak Gas or Peak Coal seems to be in the far future and may never happen with new energy sources substituted
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 12 2010, 06:38 PM


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the spaish bloke said he doesnt want to ban the truth !
the economist is in fantasy land
the leech made them aquirm

the Leech has a place in the financial world like the medical world to repair the bruises

the Euro countries want simply to be regarded in the same way as US States are

part of the grand EU - all for one and one for all

brother spain or greece gets into strife then the head of the EU family will come to the rescue

the Leech has sharp teeth , you dont even realise you have been bitten
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 12 2010, 12:52 AM


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If you thought that "Financial Engineering" had disappeared - look at this one

LongevitySwaps

Longevity Swaps ! --- and that Babcock word appears again !

and did we really think that the masters of the old universe had been put to sleep ?

QUOTE
Longevity swaps, in which investors take on the risk of paying for longer-living pensioners in return for an agreed stream of payments from the seller, are emerging as a favoured answer. Last year Babcock International became the first company to complete a longevity swap, with Credit Suisse, for three of its schemes. Others have followed. Nick Horsfall of Towers Watson, a consultancy, thinks the pipeline of potential deals could push the British swaps market to £10 billion this year, up from around £3 billion-4 billion in 2009
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 10 2010, 01:44 PM


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seems money morning today has taken your moniker

Why Housing is a White Elephant
Wednesday, 10 February 2010 - Melbourne Australia
By Kris Sayce
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 10 2010, 11:14 AM


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Garnaut's book was a surprise for me - readable

the only easy way out for excessive debt is Inflation and what better way than to allow housing to take off and then allow wages to rise to compensate

those buying entry level $500k housing today will get wage rises through CPI adjustments and probably promotions and will look back in 10yrs and find they can no longer afford to buy the house they live in

the previous govt favoured housing from the HIH crisis on and allowed wages to boom with deregulation - one on one bargaining

no australian govt that I can recall has allowed housing to falter for any length of time - the moment it stutters out comes another prop or accelerant

that old adage - Everything is going well until it isnt - applies here

the moral hazard in our RE markets is breathtaking - seems to most observers that the govt will always bail you out as housing is the only internal manufacturing industry we have left and that cant be allowed to slow down too much


BTW when is Steve Keen doing his walk? - one of his new year resolutions -

"Establish a blog for the walk from Parliament House to Kosciousko"

so we wil be informed - biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 5 2010, 11:39 AM


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FIRB

rules enable the lawyers a framework to work around

we can be certain that a number of loopholes have been found and exploited faster than they can patched

foreigners often use their relatives with australian citizenship or other eligibility to buy on their behalf with their ownership protected by means other than title deed
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 4 2010, 10:48 AM


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Brooksley Born or just about anyone other than Ben

she or very few others would want to sip from the poisoned chalice that is the "creation" of Gspan

better for them to wait out the cataclysm

in a major organisation re-build after a crisis the first thing done is to get rid of the management who "managed" to get to the crisis

the fact that Ben is still there says that the tail still wags the dog
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 3 2010, 12:08 PM


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you may be interested in this article (Shooting)

GunFighters
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 3 2010, 11:26 AM


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we already have the petroleum resource rent tax so why not be consistent with other resources

Royalties go to the States , the PRRT goes to the Commonwealth and the PRRT is paid only after all project costs are covered - some negotiations to be done

WA may want to secede - biggrin.gif

we have the "Future Fund" - why cant a % of the Commodities windfall (our only common wealth) go into the fund ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 2 2010, 12:54 AM


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not for me to rain on the parade - biggrin.gif

but to rhyme with a post by "deadone" back in 2008

remember the fools who went bust in 2008, the sensible people lost in 2009, the bargain hunters got smashed in 2010 but the really smart money got wiped out in 2011.

Let's be careful is my motto at the moment
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 1 2010, 02:05 PM


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why is it that the Moneymorning.com.au emails always say australian houses are overpriced ?

it has been that way for more than 30yrs - so isnt it likely that state will continue ? ( or will disruption occur ?)

it is normal for australia - it is our major source of asset inflation enabling us to put a $1000 into a house and get $2000 back in 7 years

we dont want it to stop

I will just have to cancel my email subscription so I dont get disturbed in my reverie
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 1 2010, 01:54 PM


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they already do a good business with their Advanced Technology Products on display in actions worldwide


maybe the O could get them a new business line in the great leap forward to FUSION Energy


still needs something to occupy the masses, rather than just the scientists and engineers - the list I posted below is what the BLS reckons is the future

the income from sale of more ATPs and Fusion Reactors would provide enough $ for most of the population to only have to worry about how they look every morning - biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Feb 1 2010, 11:07 AM


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makes you wonder whether the previous excessive Consumption of Chinese manufactured goods (using australian commodities) by the USA will re-start

USA_JobGrowth

QUOTE
The BLS list of fastest-growing occupations between 2006 and 2016 paints a disturbing picture. Among the 30 fastest-growing occupations, I could only find two that produce something of long-lasting value (network systems and data communications analysts and computer software engineers). The list is littered with the likes of:

  • Personal and home care aides
  • Home health aides
  • Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors
  • Skin care specialists
  • Gaming surveillance officers and gaming investigators
  • Mental health counselors
  • Mental health and substance abuse social workers
  • Gaming and sports book writers and runners
  • Manicurists and pedicurists
  • Environmental science and protection technicians, including health
By the above list, it would appear that we are destined to become a nation of sickly obese people confined to our homes, with good skin and nails, playing the lottery but mentally impaired from worrying about global warming.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 27 2010, 08:59 AM


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agree that australia is a real estate home run to the consternation of commentators who like to quote our high house price to income ratios

is there any other country where the govt has been so unequivocal about intervening to support the market

and where our banks feel so comfortable in having most of their assets in RE

RE never falls
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 25 2010, 01:24 PM


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"IT IS NOT GOING TO FALL OVER!" will be true for longer than I can remain solvent

but then IT WILL FALL OVER
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 25 2010, 01:11 PM


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economic forecasting - not determinant like engineering is it ?

anyone can have a guess - and as Gspan said it is only in hindsight that you can be sure - lol

I accept your point that high TD rates would have a big effect on the market - like the 1980s-90

if you can get 17%+ why risk your money in the ASX ?

seems like many generations ago but as it happened then does that mean it cant happen again ?

dont tell me - I know ! (to be evidenced by hindsight biggrin.gif ) = the panacea for the Australian excessive lifestlye = CHINA

Have a Happy and Reflective Australia Day tomorrow !
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 25 2010, 10:29 AM


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noticed Ubank have dropped their 12mth TD rate from 6.31% to 6.26% (peak was 6.81% early Dec09)

reckon they how have more deposits than they can profitably lend out

certain that bank TD interest rates have peaked

the RBA may still raise rates but the banks will let the gap between the RBA rate and theirs narrow

as for the market , there is no trust as there has not yet been a bottoming process - it still has some major oscillations to get there
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 13 2010, 11:05 AM


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an ANZ senior commodities astrologist - lol


china fixed investment sector accounts for ~45% of GDP ( Roach,Steven Bloomberg.com 5/1/10)

china building steel bridges , building lots of roads ( sounding like Japan but from a lower base)

I guess they can keep doing that for quite a while

China the land of the Big Lurch - where will they Lurch to next ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 12 2010, 01:03 AM


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USA - Flexibility

Optimism

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 11 2010, 12:18 PM


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QUOTE
The simple truth is that despite myriad challenges to its supporting science, man-made global warming has become the favorite political tool of those who would control our lives by regulating what and how often we drive, how much energy we are allowed to consume, and even what we can and cannot eat.


MorePolarBearsEtAl
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 11:25 AM


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agree that the internet makes easy the systematic lying necessary to keep the proles under control

but you do get the impression that the sedation offered may conflict with persistent unemployment in the USA and the reality of the con job that is the Wall St and Federal Reserve conspiracy will be confronted

the storm is brewing and they thought they would get away with it --- doh! Why shouldnt they? - If Greenspan replaced by Bernanke and Bernanke re-confirmed then anything is possible
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 10:39 AM


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sometime soon the market will have a "Tiger Woods" moment

everything is "all right" until it is not
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 25 2009, 12:37 AM


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same for this one I suppose

Box brains for men
Tangled Wired brains for women

Brains
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Dec 24 2009, 01:18 PM


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I think of a locked enclosure with 200 rabbits , one bowl of water and 2 lettuces

also "Watership Down" comes into the mind space as well


Merry XMAS and a Happy New Year
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 24 2009, 10:20 AM


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Mr Bernanke - "person of the year" by TIME magazine

WhatDidYouExpect?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 24 2009, 09:44 AM


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We can forget any real change to the US type financial model - exists for the good of the elites

They know they have been on a winner as if it can survive the last 12mths, so interwoven into western society that it cant be disentangled at an acceptable "political" cost

"this time it is different" --- hardly, just more of the same , enriching the "few" with some crashes along the way and guaranteed govt bailouts and executive bonuses and incentive rewards in the bad times as well as the Boom

they cant lose

will the "many" ever be able to change it ?

but you still get that underlying feeling that the market's bouncing ball has reached its zenith

maybe I/We have lost Faith
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 24 2009, 01:46 AM


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noticed today that UBank (an NAB mutant) reduced its term deposit rates on 3,6,12mth terms

seems that he rate cycle may have reached resistance ( I have said that before ! - Lol)

XMAS shopping hasnt exactly been frantic has it ?

economy will cry poor and the RBA will hold or drop rates at its Feb 2010 meeting

or it could be that it is a sign of banks being able to get their money cheaper so they no longer have to offer such a premium to the RBA cash rate

more confidence in our world best banks

(or is it a strengthening US$ side effect , as our banks borrow a lot offshore)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 23 2009, 11:03 AM


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this has been a dead forum since the banks market cap recovered - complacency or wisdom ?

but as some have pointed out our best banks have huge exposure to real estate - so let us hope that RE never goes down
in this great country dependent upon china for the icing on its cake

anyway, maybe Australia Post could be a backdoor way to get a new "people's" bank again

AustPost
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 23 2009, 10:31 AM


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NH

a "balanced analysis" by a market participant is a joke
all players in the market are self interested

executive incentive plans ? - designed by management to enrich themselves (Agency cost of being a small shareholder)

the more one observes and participates in the market the more will "Random Walk" be demonstrated

it just takes a while to become convinced

while I'm still in "Book" mode - try "Predictably Irrational", Dan Ariely 2008

It has been a confusing year with western governments trying to keep the old pre-GFC model breathing - in the absence of anything obviously better - Financial evolution stymied, but let us hope for something that can avoid the "Regulatory Capture" problem of the Federal Reserve and Wall St where

"...those who guard the rules governing an industry succumb to the views of those whom they regulate.."

I have been entertained and enlightened by your contributions to SS.
Thankyou , you have a broad scope.

Merry Xmas and a Happy 2010

DB
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 10:17 AM


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I am not prone to recommending books but having read "The great crash of 2008" by Ross Garnaut I was surprised at how readable and comprehensive it was

Global Imbalances
Regulatory capture
Clever money
Shadow banking system

surprised because Ross in TV interviews comes across as an animated Bernie Fraser type
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 16 2009, 12:05 PM


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Desmond Lachman on Lurkers

JustaFewDangers

In a AEI podcast on global imbalances he made the point that the US needs to save but China needs to consume (similar goods like the US Consumer did)

but China has been spending on infrastructure , and adding to production capacity
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 11 2009, 10:27 AM


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Thanks for the chart

As to how our big crash resolves itself we will have to wait and look backwards

My point about 1987 was that someone in 1988 would have been wondering the same thing as we are now

China - still stimulating in the Hope of a western consumption resumption

China accelerated to the Olympics and when the wheels fell off the GrowthbyDebt Western Consumer Model they seem to have continued unabated even though their export income dropped by 30%+ ---- they are digging into their savings to maintain appearances

There must be a reckoning , but I accept your point that China can probably keep going longer than we think
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 10 2009, 10:59 PM


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if you look at the 1987 event - the XAO for example you would see in the tape that the first retrace up was followed by a relatively
minor dip , then Up, then a slide down to a new low in 1991 back onto the long term trendline

you may say that the past is not a guide to the present - but that is the best we have as a guide

the "informed" talking heads of today have no idea either but talk away anyway !

Reversion to trend is my belief - how it gets there is debatable

The first big 2009 low of the XAO was about onto the trend line -- subsequent stimuli and other interventions have given it air time , so we will see how long it can hang

It could go for years in a range downward slowly eventually reaching the trendline - but history does show that pattern is unlikely

The stimuli will run out
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 10 2009, 11:46 AM


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not a square root recovery

A W with a higher 2nd V ? -

Tell me why it wont turn out like the 1987 crash resolution - what magic do they have now ?

Talk to someone who has recently been to the USA - the cradle of consumerism , or Europe ,UK , Ireland - none of these places seem ready to consume excessively again for some time

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 9 2009, 12:54 AM


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I know you are aware of this one - we need to be very afraid as a commodity exporter

QUOTE
China’s plan was to tide the economy over until U.S. consumers begin spending again. Yet a stark reality awaits central planners in Beijing: the global demand its all-important export markets need to thrive won’t turn up as planned.


ChinaBubbles

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 9 2009, 12:48 AM


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B is for Boondoggle

how about P is for Polar Bears

or C is for CommonSense

Skeptica

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Dec 8 2009, 12:02 AM


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noticed on Sundays's ABC Inside Business program - support for the "Square Root" recovery pattern

I presume it is a long drop with a bounce then a horizontal line

we are supposed to be in the horizontal part now --- until the next shock

any readers who have studied stock market charts seen a "square root" shaped recovery ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 12:04 PM


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maybe Tim Flannery can explain it all to you

the bears have offspring in order for the other bears to eat them - population control in the face of rising sea levels which will reduce ice floes and cause the bears to be unable to hunt enough seals and thereby die a painful death by starvation

so the polar bears are thinking ! - lets be proactive and just eat more of our young until our population reaches a sustainable number so we dont have to starve to death

Logic biggrin.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Dec 4 2009, 01:09 PM


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Lal la Land - land of OZ - a commodities economy dependent on China being able to keep spending until the Western consumer economies again start wanting its Widgets

GST -- dont mention it - only 10% so far
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 4 2009, 01:38 AM


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bit more china

Rotten

QUOTE
One such pocket of rot is undoubtedly China. People have been writing this for at least a decade, and have lost credibility because collapse never happens. Nevertheless, China, while big enough and opaque enough to hide problems, is NOT immune to the normal laws of economics. It now bears every sign of a gigantic jerry-built economic edifice waiting to crumble. China has had money supply growth in the past year at 28.7%, with the government now doing 50-year bond issues at 4.4%, far less than the rate of inflation – both signs of a market in extreme bubble mode. It also has a mass of uneconomic state industries that have been propped up by the banking system, a gigantic portfolio of real estate investment financed by cheap loans that has been built far ahead of demand, casinos in its stock exchanges that are supporting immensely lucrative but fragile trading operations, and innumerable entrepreneurial ventures in all sectors of the economy, at least a substantial percentage of which have to be non-viable.

Having all four types of bubble-created rot (albeit in different degrees), China must eventually undergo the collapse that is necessary to remove the rot and restore its long-term growth prospects. That's not to say China isn't the great growth economy of the 21st century – it probably is – but it has to go through a truly gigantic financial crash first, before resuming its growth on a healthier basis, probably at least 5-10 years late


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 02:31 PM


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Selloff coming to take profits so we can have some money to buy Xmas presents

XMAS Present Correction - XPC
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 11:35 AM


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a true believer in the chinese miracle building ladders to the sky

china needs the western consumer to continue what she was doing before last year - consuming excessively

with current debt levels that doesnt seem likely

so china closes its GDP gap by spending its surplus savings internally

unless the West re-starts excessive consumption and china exports recover then what ?

how much longer can the chinese continue on this path ?

I admit that we can be thankful for their excess production capacity and the cheap drills, mowers and most other Stuff they provide

Cheap at the moment but as they have cornered the market in manufactured goods they could raise their prices !
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 10:50 AM


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NAB UBank today - 1yr TD 6.81%

makes you wonder

companies raising money on the market sucked in huge amounts of cash that was sitting in deposits

recent market run has seen more deposits going to the ASX

banks might be getting short of deposits and having to compete - westpac 6.8% one day , NAB 6.81% the next

if the market crashes there will see money flooding back to the banks

a surplus of cash would mean that interest rates dont have to be as high

or we might just be going to the mother of inflations and the interest rates of the late 1980s may be building (18%+)

but you cant use the past to predict the future !
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 2 2009, 11:33 PM


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apply spin

USA is 20th most indebted as % of GDP at 94.3%

Australia is only marginally worse at 18th at 111.3%

look at the UK - No3 408.3%, Ireland No1 1267%

Australia is much better than 17 other countries and despite our english - irish heritage we havent borrowed nearly as much as those two
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 2 2009, 11:44 AM


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house inflation caused by low rates allowing bigger loans and leverage

low rates have also allowed faster pay down of loan balances

RBA action - commentariat sees 4-5% as Neutral so RBA will continue raising especially if everyone spends up big over Xmas

St George/Westpac 6.8% 1yr TD - as you imply - wonder why ? buffering of its deposit base !
Interest rates used to be a risk indicator ?
Are our banks riskier than we are prepared to admit ? esp with our Housing market in a bubble and still a major risk, whereas in the USA housing has been somewhat de-risked.
Is the 6.8% a forecast of (inflation + growth) to come?

wonder if other banks will respond - NAB Ubank has been most voracious to date

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 1 2009, 10:01 PM


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a lot happening on Dec 1 in the "Worlds" - "Limitless World" is a good one

note that NAB's Ubank today raised its 9mth term deposit rate to 5.51% from 5.46% - an interest rate resistance level is approaching I think
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Dec 1 2009, 12:08 PM


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not sure whether this link is "funny" or a view of the future

PlasticCups

only in Queensland of course
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Dec 1 2009, 11:53 AM


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QLD seems most advanced in this area - their legislation gives the water rights to the CSG producer

see this report - CSGWaterStudy

NSW - will probably follow QLD lead

uses mentioned in the report in addition to my earlier post - also

- surface discharge to streams ( not recommended without treatment)
- feedlots - 500 cattle at 45l/head/day = 22,500l/day
- aquaculture
- algae farming
- coal mine washing plant
- cooling tower
- enhanced oil recovery
- fire protection
- municipal water supply and recreation activities
- wildlife habitat creation

from page 128 of the Report

QUOTE
The choice of beneficial product water end use will depend on economics, regulatory requirements, produced water quality, and local hydrogeologic conditions.

The beneficial use of product water should be outlined before extraction commences for the project.

The responsibilities for meeting the costs of treatment, transportation, construction and operation of end use applications need to be established before development begins


they dont seem to be mandating RO , but require protection of existing water aquifers and the water rights of others

the water end use obviously has to be approved so the higher the economic use the better - just flowing it to evaporation ponds without serious consideration of alternatives will not be allowed in the first iteration but considering the vast amounts of water to be produced regionally some evaporation will have to be allowed

plenty of water for ducks and pelicans
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Dec 1 2009, 10:48 AM


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remember 2008 with the oil price high - the commentariat said it was because of the weak US$

now we have the same reason given for not so "high" commodity prices

speculation - leverage = back to normality

behind the scenes the work has been done to restore the financial system to its previous speculative dominance

"they" made it work up to 2008 and are now restoring it at the expense of the world's working stiffs

if it looks like a conspiracy it probably is - apart from a few poster boys like Madoff the rest of them seem to be doing just nicely evading any form of justice

the cycle starts all over again - greed and hubris

look at recent AGMs - executives and directors stony faced justifying their massive remuneration packages against the obvious poor share price performance - obvious to the shareholder but not to them

"obvious" is the key word - I can see it , you can see it but the agents who nominally work for shareholders are blind to it as they are the cause of it

Inflation is all govts can achieve - no way do they want deflation

the Climate change boondoggle - Why ? the fuss at this time - will cause huge energy inflation

anyone working will want and get a pay rise - no govt will resist because they want to cause inflation to inflate away their debts

a $500k house price will just be an old-timer memory just like the $50k price from 30yrs ago

and the RBA and other central banks will just be too slow in raising rates

Agree - "massive inflation" - looks like it is coming
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Nov 30 2009, 11:47 PM


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at about 3000bwpd (477kL) from current pilots - they say they have 2 reverse osmosis plants running and 2 more to come to process all the lateral pilot water

- using it for theri own drilling processes and domestics

later when in gas production

- industrial process water
- irrigation - farm cropping ventures, tree farms, carbon offsets
- potable water for local communities - recharge other aquifers

considering that they are processing it through RO possibly to potable standard it surely must be a valuable commodity they can exploit

as the water production rate drops off as gas production increases they would need to store it somewhere prior to processing as probably no "use" could consume the water at the rate initially generated

companies like Carbon Conscious (CCF) would like water for their trees

as to the extra cost of govt regulation on water disposal ? - it would seem significant if RO is going to be the norm rather than just running it into evaporation ponds

ESG should aim to offset the cost with revenue from sale of the water - I assume that they have the rights to the water as well as the gas ( dont they ?)
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Nov 30 2009, 10:51 PM


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this even beats the last one


AlarmistInChief

QUOTE
Holdren has been selling doom for years through academic papers, books and conferences. He has gone from overpopulation to global cooling, nuclear holocaust and global warming. The alarm level never wavers; only the vehicle changes as one disaster fad segues into a new one
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Nov 30 2009, 10:16 PM


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Hubris of the believers

RiggedConsensus

QUOTE
The response from the defenders of Mr. Mann and his circle has been that even if they did disparage doubters and exclude contrary points of view, theirs is still the best climate science. The proof for this is circular. It's the best, we're told, because it's the most-published and most-cited—in that same peer-reviewed literature. The public has every reason to ask why they felt the need to rig the game if their science is as indisputable as they claim.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Nov 26 2009, 11:20 PM


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Look at this - SuperVolcano

a big super volcano eruption like Toba, Yellowstone, Taupo will sure cool us off

Global warming - biggrin.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Nov 26 2009, 11:24 AM


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Remember how when official interest rates went up, the stock market went down and vice-versa

discounted cash flow for future company earnings - part of the reason

but never before have interest rates been ~Zero ( didnt the Japanese try that for the last 20yrs)


as you suggest like a final clutch at life
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Nov 25 2009, 10:58 AM


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There seems to be more than enough scams to still be discovered and unwound

- commercial property
- derivatives
- the fundamental growth by debt model

just normal, not different this time - going back to the old familiar "normal" seems to be the strategy

China needs income to sustain expenditure and buy commodities. At least with it currency pegged to the US$ the cost of its manufactured goods to Americans will not change much and the US with unemployment over 10% can still buy the goods but no longer excessively ! China will have to pay more for commodities. How much longer can they sustain it ?

The whole world aim is Inflation by any means - else why would the Climate Boondoggle - ETS and CPRS types be contemplated with such renewed vigour to add to the cost of living ?

I'm still of the view that this time is not different and the 1987 crash model resolution will eventuate this time as well.
Back in 1987 you would have looked to the 1929 experience and wondered if it would repeat itself -- the answer was "not quite" but it followed the same rollercoaster ride - down,up,down,up then Down for a fair while until a real recovery could be developed. The "not quite" was because of the arrival of the great inflationist - Alan Greenspan. So maybe the even greater Bernanke can work more magic?

If capital preservation is your aim - why would it be different this time ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Nov 24 2009, 11:44 PM


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what is left to pump up

- done real estate - must be ready for a run again soon
- doing gold now
- sharemarket underway

cheaper than cheap 2001 money has to go somewhere

climate change - chicago climate exchange CCX --- another good financial boondoggle for the money men
- a bubble in low carbon intensity stocks ?

A multi-year bull run ? - more inflation , low expectations and companies exceeding them ?

or was that 2009 date at the bottom of the page 1982 ? - biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 30 2009, 01:40 PM


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how more accurate will they get - to the "postcode" level biggrin.gif

PostCodeAccuracy

QUOTE
“I think we need to be very careful about purporting to be able to supply very detailed and apparently accurate information about how the climate will be in 50 or 100 years’ time, when what we’re really giving is a possible future climate,” he added.

“We’re not in a position to say how likely it is and what the chances are of it being different. There’s an understandable tendency to want to make climate change real for people and tell them what’s going to happen in their postcode, and that’s very dangerous because it gets beyond the level on which current models can operate.”


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 30 2009, 12:52 PM


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Australian banks - the world's best, exposed to the world's safest and best real estate market , one that only goes Up

why would Mr Smith of ANZ be worried by some regulation - it doesnt matter what happens the Govt will always look after him

a good part of the problem - as to why the banks took big risks and still do

he doesn't realise that the Govt bank guarantee has a price to be paid

WeDontNeedFixing

QUOTE
But Mr Smith told analysts in a conference call yesterday that people were quick to jump on the regulatory bandwagon after a crisis. He pointed to a proposal emerging from the Basel Committee, the global standard-setting body for banking regulation, for a leverage ratio to put a floor under the build-up of leverage in the financial system.

While such an initiative might be appropriate for a more leveraged operation, for example UBS, Mr Smith said, a commercial lender like ANZ had a "totally different make-up" and a different portfolio of businesses.

"I think there is a real danger of fixing something that's not broken," he said. "We have to say our piece on this; there's not one size that fits all."

The Basel Committee, apart from looking at a leverage ratio, is also examining the introduction of capital buffers that can be drawn down in periods of stress, strengthening the quality of bank capital, and the development of stronger liquidity buffers.




  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 29 2009, 12:19 PM


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if we have an asteroid hit then the climate change mob will get their climate change

then those still breathing will lecture us about it !
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 29 2009, 12:13 PM


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I guess the ocean would be a probable impact zone as it occupies most of this planet - could cause a bit of a wave

On a planetary rsk analysis basis - Event - Consequence , Probability

the large impact from space event would have Extreme Consequence and Very Low Probability, but would still rate #1 in any risk analysis

while the means of deflection or destruction seem beyond us , is it psychologically positive to "know" about such large objects coming towards us

better we dont know

In the period humans have been around there has been no major impact that I know of

Humans have survived some major volcanism so far but not a major impact, but we are adaptable and some would survive
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 29 2009, 11:48 AM


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let us pay homage to Jupiter for having such powerful gravity and collecting all that space debris
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 29 2009, 11:06 AM


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look how long the "power of reason" took to finally dominate religious dogma (theocracy) in the western world

and today how some 56 "states" are still in thrall to religious dogma

and the centre of the current ClimateChange dogma is the West ? --- Regression to the old days of control through fear
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 29 2009, 09:50 AM


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it has been like a ponzi scheme - but you will get some money back

add up all the gross dividends you have received + current share price and it will be close to what you paid in T2
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 29 2009, 09:46 AM


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See - USA_Handouts

The Americans have finally realised that if you want a Miracle economy like Australia then you simply always support the housing market

We can finally teach them something !

QUOTE
It really paints the wrong picture about what is going on in the nation's housing market if, by historical measure, homes are still overvalued by a large margin and the government takes extreme steps to support those valuations.

Including freakishly low mortgage rates - under 5 percent for a 30 year fixed-rate loan as of last week - and low or no money down loans from the FHA and USDA (yes, the USDA), the US government has created many of the same conditions that were present when the housing bubble was at its peak.

The only thing they're doing different this time is verifying income.

With many respected analysts calling for home prices to continue to decline through 2010,efforts by the government to prop up the housing market through tax credits may end up backfiring over the long run.

Since housing bottoms are normally extended affairs, usually lasting for years, this one likely to persist even longer commensurate with the size and duration of the boom that preceded the bust, this program has the potential to set the housing market back for many years.

The reason?

Once the tax credits, low interest rates, and low down payments go away, homes that seem quite affordable today could all of a sudden turn out to be quite expensive.


under 5% for a 30yr fixed rate - that is a good rate ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 11:41 PM


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and if none of the threatened events happen - the IPCC and its cadre of alarmists will claim responsibility for prevention

and if something does happen , a hurricane , a drought , a flood - the Above will use it to show that you need to follow them for redemption

an absence of rational thinking - the destruction of the scientific method by politicians and actors

a Religion


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 02:09 PM


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that makes sense

- Need to get in early before it is washed away

- Last chance to get a coastal view

- Mooring buoy guaranteed

all that added value reflected in the price
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 02:05 PM


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found some gold -- or some people with metal detectors found some - now a Gold Rush described by the FXR Ann today

ASX speeding tickets responses earlier didnt reveal any gold prospects -- those prospectors must have been hiding

so the F(O)XR is onto the scent - looking to be a gold miner now

nickel & copper - iron ore -- gold

nothing stops the FOX

you know the definition of a miner biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 12:49 PM


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from your link - Barnaby knows that a new tax can't stop the sea

QUOTE
Senate leader Barnaby Joyce said sea levels had been rising for about 10,000 years.

"And if you wait around they'll cover the flood plains of the major capital cities,'' he told reporters, adding that a "massive new tax'' from an emissions trading scheme (ETS) would not stop the sea rising.

He accused the government of "grossly exaggerating'' the effects of climate change to get its package of ETS bills approved by parliament.


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 11:47 AM


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another couple of deep thinkers MeatIsEvil

QUOTE
In an interview with The Times, Lord Stern of Brentford said: “Meat is a wasteful use of water and creates a lot of greenhouse gases. It puts enormous pressure on the world’s resources. A vegetarian diet is better

.....

Su Taylor, a spokeswoman for the Vegetarian Society, welcomed Lord Stern’s remarks. “What we choose to eat is one of the biggest factors in our personal impact on the environment,” she said. “Meat uses up a lot of resources and a vegetarian diet consumes a lot less land and water. One of the best things you can do about climate change is reduce the amount of meat in your diet.”

The UN has warned that meat consumption is on course to double by the middle of the century.


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 10:30 AM


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agree , but while you would think that the ETS would favour base load gas power generation it doesnt seem to as both AGK and ORG have abandoned plans for base load CCGT and are now concentrating on OCGT for peak loads and to support wind

too much of a union lobby in the coal industry and rank hypocrisy exporting thermal coal to China for them to burn !

also various studies of world gas supply , LNG, show an over supply at present and in the near future

longer term once it is realised that gas is a reasonable bridging powergen fuel then the situation should change

there is too much east coast CSG for the domestic market , hence the LNG plans

even ESG mulls over a Newcastle LNG option !

look at the ESG sp trending to 85cps - wouldnt want us retail investors , the unsophisticates , to get a bargain now biggrin.gif

they may have to re-think their SPP if the market gets the expected Oct-Nov clobbering
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 09:49 AM


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never let the facts get in the way of an agenda

which seems to be world government

Monckton
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 09:43 AM


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funny how we build on the coast and ignore the geologic record of tsunamis , and past higher sea levels

some think that the internet age and our computing "power" can defeat nature

the fact is that with the aid of a easy to exploit fossil energy endowment humans have been able to increase their population from 1bn to 6bn+ in 150yrs

just like a rabbit population explosion once everything is eaten up a collapse follows - who knows, but that is the nub of the current climate change mania, a realisation that humanity of the excessive consumption model is probably unsustainable
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 12:36 AM


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reckon you probably know about Bob Carter Deceit

QUOTE
A well-accepted aphorism about science, in the context of difference of opinion between two points of view, is “Madam, you are entitled to your own interpretation, but not to your own facts”.

...

It bears repeating that the onus is on Minister Wong, or her advisory IPCC scientists, to provide any evidence that the null hypothesis regarding modern climate change is false. Because she cannot do so, the clever trick is used of inverting the null hypothesis to demand that climate rationalist scientists demonstrate that human-cased global warming is not occurring.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 26 2009, 12:40 PM


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last gasp loans BeatRateRise

QUOTE
BANKS are urging first-home buyers to lodge mortgage applications ahead of the next rate rise so they qualify for the biggest possible loans, an investigation by The Sunday Telegraph has found.


but we all know that RE in Australia is world unique as it it never goes down in value - the absolute best place to buy a house where the price you pay is the value

all the factors in alignment
- continuous immigration - looking to 35M according to The Leader
- protected banks - Govt will always help them and their customers ,no matter what they do
- high commodities income - The Leader assures us that China will always be prepared to pay the price we want
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 26 2009, 11:21 AM


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another loopy loop from the hall of climate change FreezeTheCoral

QUOTE
At this meeting, politicians and scientists acknowledged that global emissions of carbon dioxide are rising so fast that we are losing the fight to save coral and the world must develop an alternative plan. Freezing samples for the future may be a necessary option


what these people would have done in the time of the mega-fauna ! were they extincted by CO2?

be nice to have some giant wombats running around biggrin.gif


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 25 2009, 10:12 PM


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put a global warming spin on this sydney stupidity Success

- no cars on the harbour bridge

- 6,000 people sitting on grass, over 10,000m2 of it - where cars usually drive

a victory for the environment ( spun the enmoronmental lobby )

How do Sydney people tolerate their very own Nathan ( Rees )
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 23 2009, 11:52 PM


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Ken Henry sure knows a lot now - rebutting Garnaut who is a bit of a bear on the economy and the Govt method of avoiding recession GoldenAge

everything is the "best" in Australia - sounds like hubris to me

QUOTE
Golden age 'will stretch to 2050': Ken Henry

Dr Henry said Australia would not have been able to manage the investment boom and the challenges of population growth and climate change with the inflexible economy of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.

"But these forces are hitting now, at a time when we have implemented 25 years of economic reforms; when the Australian economy has just demonstrated to the rest of the world that, for some time now, it has quite possibly been the best governed, most flexible, most resilient of all industrialised economies; when there is unprecedented global interest in us; and when there is, domestically, a strong appetite for further policy change," he said
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 23 2009, 02:15 PM


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STO paid $1/share and 85c/15c option - so maybe that is where the 85cps comes from

STO wouldnt want us to to get too much of a bargain - seems that the 85cps was tricked up by 7day vwap , if they couldnt get computer to say 85cps on 7day they would have just varied the days until computer agreed with what the 85cps they wanted

ESG seem to be making slow progress - broken pump rod couplings and so - the market hasnt been impressed

certification requires a market - where ? very crowded - too much gas unless LNG gets going or more gas powergen

it would be good to see STO take them over - condition 1 has been met : poor management - underdelivering on the promises

the SPP funds are going to be used to catch up

  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 23 2009, 11:25 AM


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SPP - a good one or not ?

85cps -- 10% disc to 7day VWAP - Max $40M

bit steep considering they have not progressed much and are still have equipment issues - 7 months ago they gave the big players a go at 55cps

I guess they reckon the last one was oversubscribed and they will easily get the $ from the small holders

March 2009 - 55cps to institutions and the sophisticated (not a SPP) 13.3% disc to 10day vwap- total $50M
Dec 2007 - SPP - 40.86cps 10% below average of closing prices over 5 days prior to 19/12/07 - total $22.47M
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 23 2009, 10:52 AM


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canada and USA tied together - landlocked

interest rates may have some influence

Bank of Canada - Target for the overnight Rate as of 21/04/09 = 0.25%
RBA - Target for the Cash Rate as of 6/10/09 = 3.25% (RBA min of 3% achieved 8/4/09)

though back in July 08 - Canada had 3% and our RBA had 7.25% - Canada dropped rates a further 2.75% compared with our 4.25% as we had maintained a much higher rate. Canada's peak was 4.5% 10/7/07 so peak-trough they dropped 4.25% also.

uncanny isnt it ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 23 2009, 08:59 AM


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the Americans are seeing the Australian experience once you give out grants and tax breaks on housing - exploitation

no surprise there ?

SomethingForNothing
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 23 2009, 08:18 AM


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you conclude that the USA is an economic basket case

I assume you would say the eurozone is similar as well as japan

those major consumer economies are surely the main source of external income for China which China needs to continue buying commodities at the same pace "forever" - a % of what is now a big economy is a big number

China internal growth stimulus seems to be the main driver at present, but can that continue (for how long?) without recovery in the main consumer economies and a return to the recent excessive consumption model

China has a history of "lurches" - we have to wait for the next surprise

Australia has become too dependant and wont be able to do much about it - the Govt solution of borrowing to avoid recession requires us to always offer a good interest rate margin to compensate for the risk of loaning to a commodities economy

Argus has restarted the "Stronger forever" theme - we should hear more boosters match him soon

I still reckon we will follow a pattern similar to post 1987 - a return to trend could take quite a few years

I agree that we could see 5000 then back to your targets then downwards towards 4000-3500 - which is on trend , over 2-3 years

The 1987 post crash was ups and downs for about 4 years

If we think that by some miracle or magic (money printing ?) that we can go back to 2007 then we are delusional

and Shouldnt higher interest rates drag on the the ASX as well ?

I dont really know as you dont - we just have to be as nimble as practicable

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 22 2009, 11:03 PM


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I couldnt help it (credit NotMe)



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 22 2009, 07:57 PM


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if they were truly rational the good Victoria University professors Brenda and Robert Vale would look at their own eco-footprint and conclude that their unique selves should become UnBeings , and do us all a favour

only in NZ - a place of remarkable moonbattery
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 22 2009, 03:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Capitalism will always ultimately win as it motivates individuals to perform and the USA with its diverse population will continue to be a centre of creativity and innovation

the moral compass has been lost at the top end only - what is needed is for some justice to be seen to be done and the extreme risk taking constrained - like the Brooksly Born attempt on derivative trading

Im always impressed by Canberra where you can drive around and be surprised by the mammoth buildings that spring up from behind a hill, full to the brim with shiny pants paid for by the taxpayer - a lot of make work activity going on

Capitalism is to be free of the socialism the free riders want to impose on us all - never ending finer grained control

should everyone work for a government "firm" biggrin.gif

Faber like the rest of the world should thank the USA for doing the hard work the last 100 years

When the S..t hits the fan they all want help from the USA
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 22 2009, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

AWE publishes 2P reserves and then only in its Annual Report

my emails to them simply get a re-iteration of the above

It refuses to publish the full set 1P,2P,3P Reserves , let alone Resources --- I dont know why ?

Unlike BPT

or STO which publishes a comprehensive prior year end report every January with the full Reserves + Resources

If you hold AWE and want more transparency please contact them
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 02:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

good point - the tax on petrol is what 38cpl?

remember LPG is on a tax holiday soon to run out

cant have too many tax free electric cars substituting for taxed petrol/lpg cars

bound to be some canberra shiny pants getting worked up over this issue biggrin.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

looks like they are trying to get back on the growth track rather than just act as part of the service industry

the envy of the world - ranked no12 world's safest bank by global finance magazine

CBA has approx 42 hardship specialists on call 6 days per week to help clients

CBA has market leading exposure to residential property - plus they took on BankWest chock full of WA mortgages

Govt has demonstrated that it will always support real estate so thereby backup the banks so they regard themselves as bulletproof
- moral hazard

ready for even greater financial excursions than before the GFC (what crisis ?)

A vertical chart - exponential + - but they would say that they deserve to be rewarded as the Best Bank

Which Bank ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

from your link - it is all Magic

QUOTE
But for Wall Street and American capitalism, use your gut. You know something's very wrong: A year ago "too-greedy-to-fail" banks were insolvent, in a near-death experience. Now, magically they're back to business as usual, arrogant, pocketing outrageous bonuses while Main Street sacrifices, and unemployment and foreclosures continue rising as tight credit, inflation and skyrocketing Federal debt are killing taxpayers.

Yes, Wall Street has lost its moral compass. They created the mess, now, like vultures, they're capitalizing on the carcass. They have lost all sense of fiduciary duty, ethical responsibility and public obligation.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

look at this USA debt clock - apart from being mesmerising the detail is amazing

USA_DebtClock

Australian debt clock is minimal by comparison

Aust_DebtClock
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 11:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Schillers main point seemed to be that starry eyed optimism and irrational exuberance have not been washed out yet

a true bottom in the markets would be signalled by red eyed pessimism and rational depression

of course that state may have been reached by the average person already and the markets are being held on high by the big players supported by Govt (also in Australia)

but Americans have only just started to understand how we in Australia can have a never ending Real Estate boom (by continuous application of handouts)

the underlying theme is that the American model of continuous conspicuous excessive consumption, deployed in all western economies, will be hard to re-start in its birthplace
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 10:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

you have to wonder how much longer the WallSt-Masters are going to keep drawing players back to the market

when will enough be enough and the masters can take their profits

even Mr Biden reckons the USA is in a Depression

Biden
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 10:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

this reported new chinese E6 electric car will enable china to leapfrog current car technology and get hundreds of millions on wheels

400km range on a charge ChineseElectricCar_E6

QUOTE
It needs 7-8 hours with a domestic plug to charge the car but BYD - it stands for Build Your Dreams - says a specially developed fast charging point with a lead the diameter of a fire hose will fill up the car in just one hour.

....
Even if they are run on coal-fired power, electric cars still produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions than a petrol car because they are inherently more efficient, according to the UK's chief energy scientist David MacKay.

This efficiency is increased if you can run an automobile fleet on either off-peak electricity at night or on intermittent power from, say, wind farms.


good news for AGWers - wind farms, electric cars (dont mention coal)

be good news for australia - export of more commodities various


we can export more thermal coal for them to burn in their powerstations - too dirty for us
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 10:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

nonsense has a purpose

NonSense


QUOTE
For another, studies have found that people in the grip of the uncanny tend to see patterns where none exist — becoming more prone to conspiracy theories, for example. The urge for order satisfies itself, it seems, regardless of the quality of the evidence.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Who is Wolfgang Munchau ? CAPE - Q - Que?

Minsky ?

a fence sitter

WhatBubble

QUOTE
We did not need to wait until the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 10,000. It has been clear for some time that global equity markets are bubbling again. On the surface, this looks like 2003 and 2004 when the previous housing, credit, commodity and equity bubbles started to inflate, helped by low nominal interest rates and a lack of inflation. There is one big difference, though. This bubble will burst sooner.

So how do we know this is a bubble? My two favourite metrics of stock market valuation are Cape, which stands for the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, and 'Q'. Cape was invented by Robert Shiller, professor of economics and finance at Yale University. It measures the 10-year moving average of the inflation-adjusted p/e ratio. Q is a metric of market capitalisation divided by net worth. Andrew Smithers has collected the data on Q, a concept invented by the economist James Tobin.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

rising interest rates - no problem

more people squeezed into each house anyway - could just keep packing them in

InterestRatesNoProblem

QUOTE
Answering questions at the Citi Australian Investment Conference, the Reserve Bank's assistant governor (economic), Philip Lowe, says most first homebuyers understood that interest rates would soon increase from the current historical lows."We haven't seen the very marked reduction in credit standards that we've seen in the US and some other countries," he told the conference.

"By and large, the Australian lenders have been very careful, and I think that they've continued to do that, and most borrowers understand that the current level of interest rates, or the rate we've had just recently, is not likely to be sustained and I think have planned appropriately for that."

However, he also repeated a warning that the Reserve Bank has issued several times over the past few months about house prices and housing supply.

Dr Lowe says a shortage of houses has not only increased prices, but forced more people to squeeze into each home.

"With the population growing at the current rate, we need to build more houses than we're currently doing, and what's happening at the moment is that the average number of people who are living in each dwelling is rising - we've reversed a multi-decade trend of fewer people in each household," he commented.


"Australian Lenders have been very careful" ---- that statement will be tested

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

dont miss reading the 19/10/09 RBA speech by Philip Lowe RBALoweSpeech

QUOTE
As a result of these developments, Australia’s medium-term economic prospects are more closely linked with those of Asia than has been the case ever before. Business cycle fluctuations in Asia are also likely to have a bigger effect on the dynamics of the Australian business cycle than has been the case in the past. Despite this, I suspect many of us still better understand what is going on in the 50 states of the United States of America than in the 30 plus provinces and administrative regions of China, or the 28 states and seven union territories of India. Over time, this will surely change. At the Reserve Bank I know how much more effort we are putting into understanding what is going on in the Asian region, and I am sure many of you in this room have moved in the same direction.



our sensitivity to Asia is monumental - both imports and exports
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

is that Malcolm of the HIH association ?

a financial coup d'état - No! - Wall St is in charge and has always been - What's new ?

ony 4 big banks now - lot of market power --- just like Australia

It doesnt make sense to me biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

you are questioning the basis of our financial system - the buying of things we want or desire but dont need (waste) biggrin.gif

zero waste and greater efficiency are desirable goals supported by everyone ?

the AGW lobby see the ends justifying the means

rather than talk "warming" why cant they be honest and state that the goal is to find alternatives to fossil fuels which are finite and use energy more efficiently

the AGWarming alarmism is seen as a rallying cry to stir action and motivate through fear - school kids are being "educated" to convert their parents
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 19 2009, 10:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

one aspect of Plimer is that he is a "Hard" evolutionist ( he goads the Creationists)

he sees humans as just one species amongst many and their presence just a blip on his geologic timescale

with the fossil record showing extinctions as "normal" with unexpected events like meteor strikes, earthquakes, eruptions and so on having extreme effects on the lifeforms on this planet

he regards species "conservation" as absurd

random mutation and selective retention will determine the outcome

it sure seems that AGW is the new religion of the state (evidence not required - but the big computer knows !)

Hypocrisy and self interest rule (Rationality and altruism long gone)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 19 2009, 08:16 PM


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Posts: 1,661

precision needed - we deny Anthropogenic Global Warming

and the lunatic alarmist fringe

and Gordon Brown - we think we have it bad with our Leader, it is hard to imagine how the Brits put up with this bloke

Catastrophe_GordonBrown

QUOTE
The UK faces a "catastrophe" of floods, droughts and killer heatwaves if world leaders fail to agree a deal on climate change, the prime minister has warned.

Gordon Brown said negotiators had 50 days to save the world from global warming and break the "impasse".
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 19 2009, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

constant battle between Warmers and Deniers

not how they frame the above -- the implication being that the mainstream theme is Warming (Fact) and the those who argue with this "Fact" are Deniers (of the Fact)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 19 2009, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

QUOTE
break the habit of underdelivering


very droll

they had to have a rights issue at 22cps to repay AED its deposit - shows that they were short of funds at the time

noted that 2 new directors are not taking up their rights but their associated companies have entered into sub-underwriting arrangements for any shortfall shares ! for up to 14.64% ! and of course they both get a significant sub-underwriting fee in shares

the visionaries at Shell would have snapped it up if they regarded Echuca Shoals as a valuable addition

Shell's project is big enough I think and NXS would need them more than the other way so the price offered for NXS gas wouldnt be high (didnt Shell buy the gas from Crux for a pittance ?)

underdelivering management , depressed market cap, some net cash(if you can believe the prospectus pro-forma), reasonable assets, legal liability potential to Transocean &Sedco Maximum of US$176M plus defence costs - ?


lets hope the rights placement is well supported by ordinary shareholders ? - about 71% take up , only a shortfall of 58,026,225
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 18 2009, 02:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

just in case - this may be of interest Blissful

QUOTE
While all the talk at present is about economic corners turned and markets charging ahead, no one is paying much notice to an American economy deteriorating before our eyes. These myopic commentators seem to be simply moving past the now almost-universally held conclusion that before the crash of 2008, our economy was on an unsustainable course. If these imbalances had been corrected, then perhaps I too would be joining in the euphoria. But evidence abounds that we have not veered at all from that dangerous path




  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 17 2009, 11:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

If you look at the RBA D10 Margin Lending

Total Debt
Peak Dec2007 $37,767M (margin calls 0.79)
Low Jun2009 $18,268M

Margin calls
peaked Dec2008 at average 9.95/day/1000clients (Total Debt = $21,093M)
Jun2009 - 1.32

Sep2009 data not out yet - will the punters have taken advantage of the low interest rates or will most of them still be in intensive care

wonder if there is appetite for more margin debt yet ? Good indicator of exuberance or confidence ?

you would think that the real economy will start to have an impact on the peaking markets soon
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 16 2009, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

angry.gif linking me to a tim_flanneryism angry.gif

Lol
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 15 2009, 11:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

one of the better articles Ive read - LearningAnything?

QUOTE
Present-day capitalism is sometimes attacked for being nothing more than a "casino economy." But I know of no casino where the head of a central bank and the finance minister accompany customers to the roulette table, kindly offering to cover any losses.The problem is, we do not have a casino economy. To borrow a metaphor from child rearing, we have a "helicopter economy." Helicopter parents hover over their kids, preventing them falling and hurting themselves. This means their children never grow up and learn to see dangers for themselves. And for this very reason, such children will eventually fall in more serious and dangerous contexts instead, because risk is part of the human condition. The helicopter economy works in a similar way. The government hovers over the banks and investors, making sure they do not get hurt too badly (and cleaning up any messes they leave behind.) Whenever there is an accident, the benchmark rate is lowered, the central bank extends credit and taxpayers' money is pumped in. The players never learn to look out for risks; they just continue their reckless behaviour, and sooner or later they will fall off a ledge that they were not watching out for and pull us all down with them.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 15 2009, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

how about Security Footprint ClimateChange-Security

all on the climate change warming bandwagon - the ultimate boondoggle

QUOTE
At the unveiling of the climate legislation he sponsored with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), Kerry stressed the impact of the bill on national security. "Fundamentally, this bill is about keeping Americans safe," said Kerry. "Unless we act decisively, climate change could become a threat multiplier, a lit match on the kindling of an already dangerous world."

The intelligence community is also taking action on climate change.

In September, the CIA announced it was opening a Center on Climate Change and National Security to examine how global warming could affect the country’s military strategies.



we need a Footprint dictionary

Carbon
Water
Security

Like it is a Mania to distract from real world concerns - a Religion for the "moderns"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 15 2009, 12:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Look at this - the US is learning how to get their housing to perform like ours - just throw money at it with a first home buyer boondoggle

MoreMoney

QUOTE
Beyond extending that deadline, some lawmakers want to make the credit available to all homebuyers who meet income eligibility requirements. And some want to increase the amount of the credit from $8,000 to $15,000.
....
"The most fundamental argument for the credit is that nothing works in the economy if housing is falling -- it hurts household wealth and credit becomes tight," Zandi said. "[The credit] is a good insurance policy. It's vital to stem the housing price declines."



they should look how we do it and change the tax credit to a straight grant a gift

Im sure the world is looking to Australia for guidance on how to have a never ending RE boom - we got the answers and the experience !

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 11:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

you mean banks reducing the velocity of money by hoarding it rather than lending(risking) it to productive users

and borrowing from the Govt and lending it back to the Govt at a good spread - easy

or pumping it into the stock market --- the Current Bubble

how can the US markets be going up when all relevant US economic reports and anecdotal evidence are so dire

Hot Air
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 11:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

good find - just how stupid are our climate change gurus ?

wonder what Penny Wong said when she heard the Brumby was going to export his brown coal ?

even though the reasons given are reasonable and laudable in my view and applicable to the whole argument

QUOTE
But the documents say exports can be justified on three grounds: Victoria cannot unilaterally limit global emissions, the coal products could help developing countries overcome poverty, and emissions may be even higher if countries are denied Victorian coal and use dirtier fuels.


to be a good politician you need to practice asking yourself a question and then answering a different one

we all know who is the wizard at that competency biggrin.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 10:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

the IPCC plan is to cut global pollution by reducing carbon emissions hence we will then have less of an atmospheric solar reflecting layer so we will start to heat up and counter the global cooling now happening (= Global Warming (by IPCC design !))

(remember global dimming discovered after the airspace shutdown after the 911 attack)

if we had not had all this pollution produced since we discovered fossil fuels and invented aircraft we may be cooked already
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

this is all we need - more Govt interference DomGasReservation

QUOTE
The Queensland government's preferred option is to reserve up to 20 per cent of the production for domestic use, a much higher percentage than the WA reserve of 15 per cent.
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

all the actions of the Australian Govts are inflationary and encourage Moral Hazard

- FHOG and many state govt assistance packages
- Govt provision of funding $ to smaller banks
- Govt bank guarantees
- Increasing immigration
- lower interest rates lowering loan repayments quickly as rates are mostly variable
- re-establishment of union power - to enable wage inflation
- safety net plans for mortgage defaulters

and so on and on

Banks typically hold 70%+ of assets in housing, so their sensitivity to a correction or the establishment of even a neutral or small downtrend in RE asset values is very high

so housing needs to always trend upwards - it can have occasional drops but the long term trend has to be up for the Australian RE Model to continue to flourish

Govts have demonstrated that they will defend housing as No1 priority as by doing so they defend the banks and small business using housing as collateral

the Moral Hazard is that as we have seen, the banks and other RE associated entities take risks as they know that they can rely on Govts to bail them out

As for the current media headlines it is all part of the process to keep prices buoyant no matter what - convince all and sundry that "there has never been a better time to buy your house"

If by the time China has exhausted it surplus stimulating its people, the USA and Eurozone have not begun to consume excessively again , then the Australian RE model may hit the wall with falling commodity exports and rising unemployment

but as it has shown in the past the UP Trend is very powerful

The UK , USA are envious of our world's Best Govt , Banks and a RE model that seems to be invincible no matter how bad the GFC

We should set up ourselves as the Financial Training Center for the world - get the UN to mandate that the rest of the world follow the Australian Financial System design

We can have Irrational Exuberance and Rational Prudence - a balance biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 12:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

a statement of the obvious by Conoco CSGLowerValue


QUOTE
The broker has stuck to its estimate that LNG from CSG will be sold at a 10 per cent discount to traditional LNG from natural gas, which is typically sold at a 15 per cent discount to oil price parity
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 13 2009, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

FoodProdnMustRise70%

the extra CO2 being emitted is necessary to enable the plants to grow to feed the extra people

the Global Starving Alarmists may yet battle the Global Warming Alarmists

the CO2 so hated by the GWA could be channeled to the GSA

the UN - where would we be without them biggrin.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 12 2009, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Orlov would have to be the master of the understatement ClubOrlov

QUOTE
I've said it here before: Obama is the new Gorbachev, the smiling face behind the crumbling imperial façade, the personable, non-threatening loser. Gorbachev got his Nobel Consolation Prize in October 1990; a little less than a year later the USSR was no more and he was unemployed.

In awarding him the Peace Prize, the Nobel committee actually did some good: by reaffirming his legitimacy as a leader, it helped to weaken the hand of the conservative forces within Russia, which later staged an unsuccessful coup in an effort to reclaim control of the dissolving empire.

Gorbachev certainly deserves credit for making sure that the USSR disintegrated with a whimper and not a bang. May Barak Obama be just as successful in completing the dissolution of the USA, quietly and without any undue bloodshed. Moving forward, I wish him a long and happy unemployment.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 12 2009, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

he is currently Professor of Mining Geology at University of Adelaide
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 12 2009, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

old world = >70% consumerism

new world = <30% consumerism

old world (Western world) with excessive consumption habits will find it hard to learn how to be poor

new world has had a lot of practice being poor
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 11 2009, 08:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

the climate change debate has left Reason behind

the Rationalist Scientists like Plimer and many many others are perplexed as Science is usually supported by evidence (Reason) yet the debate has gone to Hollywood

Govts seem to have accepted the Gore-isms and the "new elite" scientists have the lead

The only benefit I can see is a focus on more efficient use of our fossil fuel endowment and/or a realisation that nuclear power is a "solution"

Punitive carbon taxes will cause the developing countries to be without the access to energy we take for granted - is that fair?

Boone Pickens - listening to Gore - only because solar and wind need gas to provide fast start backup power

QUOTE
The reason: his Pickens Plan, which embraces natural gas and wind power and which proponents say would cut oil imports and curb air pollution in the process


as you suggest we should follow the trail which may be profitable

it seems to me that GAS is it - a lot of it around but will the world agree to substitute it for the more abundant coal

I doubt it! - and will coal be loaded up with Carbon cost to force the issue - I doubt it !

will we be burdened with expensive Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants - gasifying Coal ?!!

and that is the core of the Plimer argument - why impose vast cost burdens to "fight" something which is not proven by evidence and even if it was is beyond our capability to fight and requires adaptive measures

and CO2 is not a pollutant - it is essential to life

you now even have escapees from some asylum - "Engineers" no less, wanting to do "Geo-engineering" - deploy reflectors , artificial CO2 sucking trees and so on

self interest - simple greed on the part of vested interests - which governments should counter as representatives of the voters, but Govts seem to have been almost captured by the mania - they seem to be unable to be rational but will go with the flow to achieve their own interests

the UN is not a World Government - but sure would like to be !

the many billions already spent on this "Boondoggle" could have provided efficient power to most of Africa by now

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 11 2009, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Alert but not Alarmed

is not good enough to engender the "respect" demanded by those who govern us

Government of the people , by the people, for the people - is no longer, assisted by the un-elected lobbby groups

Even our "democracy" is becoming unipolar
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 11 2009, 12:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

from the comments attached to your link -


QUOTE
When governments have to spend billions of dollars on advertising to convince you that something is true then it probably isn't true
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 10 2009, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

the Global Warming mania is consistent with the "need" to cause worldwide inflation to extinguish outstanding debts from the GFC

why are nations now more enthusiastic about policies which will add costs to their economies ? biggrin.gif

uKEnergyBills

in australia we are facing 50% rises in most states

as perverse as it seems rising costs feed inflation which feeds greater % pay rises - then we have inflated our debts away as a % of our incomes, especially if rising interest rates stabilise asset inflation

(Disc: probably delusional )
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 9 2009, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

good luck to TLS in its attempt to correct the Factual Errors in the Govt legislation

this Govt has a level of missionary zeal not seen for a long time - resistant to the facts , reliant on ideology

runs on Faith = Belief without evidence

what should the TLS management do ?

If the govt wants to control TLS why dont they buy it back ? - because they dont need to as they can legislate control

eg. from the TLS submission to the Senate inquiry ->

QUOTE

The Bill exempts the ACCC from procedural fairness obligations. There is no policy justification for a Government agency not to adhere to normal administrative processes that support fair decisions and efficient use of public resources. Indeed, as a „model litigant‟, the ACCC should at all times be required to meet an even higher standard of procedural fairness


shouldnt any company be able to rely on the ACCC to be fair ?
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 9 2009, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

if by "Recovery" you mean that the bottom has been discovered then on face value what you say seems reasonable though the evidence is still a bit thin - your "appears" is about right

back in 2005-07 when the ASX was going parabolic the theme was "stronger for longer" and so on , very little "the sky is about to fall in" around at that time

the commentariat do the bidding of the big players who love to suck in the retail investors and each other and then take their profits - it is war in the markets every day

recessions take time to build and our world's best government is hoping for the best while borrowing to avoid the worst

I wish for the best like everyone else
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 9 2009, 12:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Earthquakes are just one cause of a Tsunami that could hit the east coast of australia Tsunami_Earthquakes

now Ted Bryant knew about Tsunamis caused by space objects - washing rocks up the hills around Wollongong

Tsunami_Asteroids
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 11:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

I just go to www.pm.gov.au and email Kevin with my outrage !

always polite and to the point that TLS shareholders should be compensated for loss in value caused by government policy

they have terminally damaged investor support for any more floats of govt enterprises
  Forum: By Share Code

db76
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 11:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

you got it right again --- "in isolation"

our RBA raised rates last year when most others were dropping them

now they are at it again , raising ahead of the others - as though our "huge" economy is a trendsetter rather than a follower

our AUD income from commodity exports will fall if the AUD rises against the USD unless there are compensatory rises in USD commodity prices

but we need to borrow so much to continue to avoid recession that we need to have a good interest rate gap to encourage the world to lend to a commodity exporter like Australia

I can see an RBA turnaround in the wind - their weasel wording is that ~ we have plenty of room to drop rates if we need to ?

Imagine the damage to the market if they about face and drop rates - disillusionment

in the meantime their action may moderate the housing bubble a bit with all the banks upping 25bps today

agree that US and Eurozone are in poor shape and they pull from China-Japan which pull commodities from Australia - we are way upstream and a follower
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 11:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

....the arrogance of the political class - call them Unsuspecting Fools if you like

Of course I regard all politicians equally biggrin.gif

from your reference : -

QUOTE
That claim is that not for 1000 years and more has it been this hot - and, of course, it's all man's fault.So unprecedented is this heat said to be, and so dangerous, that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says it threatens to destroy the ancient Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu.


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 12:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

Foolish

QUOTE
In truth, there are essentially three kinds of fools: Real Fools, Professional Fools, and Unsuspecting Fools. Real Fools are the innocents, the simpletons, the idiot savants and “naturals” who react to situations and people with an Aspergian lack of restraint or decorum. They speak their unmediated minds, and great truths sometimes emerge, as “out of the mouths of babes.” Any of them might have blurted, “The emperor has no clothes.” Forrest Gump is our great modern examplar of this kind of fool. Heaven looks out for such as these.

Professional Fools include court jesters, clowns, toadies, con artists, and a whole range of yes-men. By pretending to be stupid or servile, the Professional Fool coolly aims to reinforce his client’s conviction of his own obvious superiority. In fact, these performance artistes always quip and caper with a purpose: a salary, behind-the-throne power, a scam. In literature one of the most memorable of these professional fools is Rameau’s Nephew, who in Diderot’s famous dialogue of that name toadies to the rich and powerful in return for a snug berth and regular meals. In the film The Usual Suspects, Kevin Spacey is a more complex example: Hunched and crippled (as were many professional court jesters), he’s slightly pitied by the tough and obviously much smarter people all around him. But Verbal Kint is far more than the “talkative child” that his name suggests.

As for Unsuspecting Fools, they are essentially everyone else in the world, starting with you and me. Everybody plays the fool sometimes; there’s no exception to the rule. More particularly, the Unsuspecting Fool is the supposedly wise figure — a sovereign, a pedantic scholar, a pillar of the establishment — who is blind to his own vanity and self-importance, ignorant of what’s really going on, puffed up with hubris. Pride goeth before a fall. In tragic vein, Oedipus and Lear are Unsuspecting Fools.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 7 2009, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

come on now you know that bloke's name - Flannery - the 2007 Australian of the Year

though Farhham is close

Good One - Lol
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 7 2009, 02:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

I cant recall if you have informed us before - but have you read Plimers book "Heaven+Earth" ?

the climate mania has been media driven so Plimer wrote his book , a media event, for which he has been criticised for not going via the scientific paper route

Plimer highlights that a lot happens beneath the oceans including vulcanism and that oceans have a huge capacity to emit and capture CO2

and that CO2 is essential to life on earth , global warming is normal in this cycle and the earth has been warmer in the past

warm has been good for the earth and cold has resulted in plagues and population collapses

the IPCC has effectively been captured by politicians now using it for their own ends - bargaining chip for trade favours ?

Plimer adopts a geologic timescale difficult for anyone to fathom, but he illustrates that the past can be a guide

He also points out that mass extinctions have happened before and will happen again and why should homo sapiens be so special it being just another inhabitant of the biosphere and subject to climate, vulcanism, earthquakes, extra-terrestial impacts and so on

Now numbering 7bn due to the energy subsidy derived from fossil fuels

a "benefit" of the emissions control ideas is greater energy use efficiency allowing a bigger population ? (Jevons paradox)

should we even think that we can influence climate in a human timescale or accept that we have to adapt

Do we have a problem or not - ? - or is it just a beat up to raise community anxiety and focus them on their "saviour" governments, in essence a means of greater government control and extraction of taxes

a manufactured problem in my view with the benefit of more conservative use of fossil fuels so extending the life of that endowment
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

db76
Posted on: Oct 7 2009, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

is winning a Nobel Prize for Economics a contra indicator for common sense ? Irrationality

QUOTE
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said U.S. unemployment will keep rising and should be the focus for policy makers, and gains in the stock market show investors have been “irrationally exuberant” about a recovery.

“There’s a lot of risk going ahead of some big bumps,” he said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview from Istanbul, citing housing, commercial real estate and consumers’ inability to pay off credit cards because of job losses. “There’s a very big risk that markets have been irrationally exuberant.”

His comments echo New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini’s view that “markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast,” and billionaire George Soros, who warned yesterday that America’s economic recovery will be “very slow.”


that old Irrational Exuberance again - well what else can you do - Irrational Depression doesnt have the same contagion

try Rational biggrin.gif




  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 7 2009, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

you know that old saw - If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true!

remember when rates went down and share prices went up and vice versa

now we have the opposite - so far anyway - maybe a return to the above will signal "normality" has returned ?

as for our PM his brilliance has been acknowledged by Bill Clinton biggrin.gif

most other nations are prepared to watch our greatest G20 member nation with the certified best leader to see what happens next
  Forum: Macro Factors

db76
Posted on: Oct 7 2009, 12:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

agree that extra 0.25% shouldnt be life changing for most borrowers but you get the impression that high leverage is still the game

the RBA is "courageous" and what is left unsaid is that Australia needs to attract money to feed our borrowings to ward off the politically unpalatable (Rec'n) - we borrow to avoid ! (nonsensical)

our Guru SteveKeen has a take on it already :- RBA_WrongAgain

(see a comment at the end of the Keen article re insolvencies - not good Insolvencies )

QUOTE
I think it is likely that the RBA will achieve far more than it intends. The last time the RBA put rates up to attempt to control an asset price bubble that was already out of hand was back in 1989. That exacerbated the economic downturn that was already in train as the debt bubble of the 1980s started to collapse. I expect the outcome of this rate rise will be similar: a downturn that is already in train as a debt bubble bursts will be made worse by this increase in rates at a time of greatly heightened financial fragility.

The problem this time is I believe far worse than 1990. Then the household sector had a relatively low level of debt–the mortgage debt to GDP ratio was a comparatively trivial 18 percent, compared to its now record level of 87.5%. It was therefore possible for the financial sector to lend willy-nilly to households, something neoclassical economists facilitated by their enthusiastic deregulation of the financial sector


he has a point as Mr Stevens has a record

may be time to get some medium term deposits at 5%+ while they are still available

  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 6 2009, 01:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

RBA raises to 3.25% today

watch the whingeing from the RE lobby and politicians
  Forum: Investment Discussion

db76
Posted on: Oct 6 2009, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,661

did anyone see 4corners last night ? (can see it on ABC Iview)

whenever I go back to sydney I end up finding a new tunnel somewhere - but that may change as the tunnelling machines have moved to brisbane to turn it into sydney

I sympathised with the bus travellers from the NW - 3hrs travelling per day, the car travellers with $30/day+ in tolls

and the Government - and the public servant CEOs paraded on the show - like watching a re-run of The Sopranos

the worst was that you could conclude that the "elected" governent was no where to be seen as it seems to be controlled by non-elected powerbrokers

then there was the clip of the keen young couples camping out for their dream block at the newest stranded suburb "The Ponds" - a Landcom paragon of materplanning - 547m2 for $305k

ThePonds
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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