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kahuna1
Posted on: Sep 1 2020, 09:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Testing has fallen 40% in the USA ... over the last month


Deaths remain around 1,000 day ...

Only 190,000 dead ...

Pity that you can get it again and again ... that's science for those interested.

Meanwhile Murdoch press and nutters rule for now. Should only take 2-3 years until they get it a few times to a solution and sanity.

America is shooting for herd immunity when ... ITS NOT POSSIBLE .... if you can clearly get it again after 90 days.

Brilliant !!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 31 2020, 07:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sigh ...

The GOP convention was an absurd joke. Virtually every speech total lies.

Testing via CDC has stopped .... seriously.

Trump is encouraging white militant groups with guns to confront people protesting over black people gunned down ... the latest shot 8 times and he had no GUN.

Meanwhile the USA stock market hits all time highs, 30 million about to be evicted unable to pay rent and 20 million in distress on their mortgage and likely to face the same.

The only really important things of the last week is the question about re infection .... is NO longer a question. Yes you can get it again and having had it once DOES NOT make the next case less worse. Well documented and scientific study now on this issue.

NOT A GOOD THING.

Market USA side still goes up and at say 1,000 a day they report, likely much higher ... no doubt much higher is that 500,000 excess deaths in a year ?

please pass the cool aid filled with bleach.

On the vaccine front ... scary stuff Trump is doing at the FDA in the USA and CDC. Be very very very afraid !!

Not just cutting corners .... but deliberately so and releasing a vaccine that's approved prior to it being safe is even ore insane than what is going on.
Hard actually to get there given the stuff that is now normal under an openly racist president who is running a kleptocracy for the rich.

ON the vaccine side, Moderna and its JOKE trial which sent 13% to hospital ... it gets worse. The vaccine which is unlikely to work for any length of time due to what is now becoming clear this virus ... and its antibodies disappear post 90 days . ... Moderna's vaccine it now turns out needs to be stored at minus 4 F .... about minus 20 C . This is WAY colder than even a decent freezer that is at minus 14C so it will need to be stored and transported and administered in a very very controlled environment because if it gets warmer .... it goes off.

Wait wait .... this joke is ... worse. Pfizer and its vaccine, it needs to be stored at minus 90F or Minus 67.8 C which is virtually impossible without a custom built freezer. It again goes off and rapidly and likely for both you need 2 shots to maybe, maybe be protected for 6 months.

Its BAD and in fact worst case stuff.

The USA market ... and delusional belief they have beaten this and done a good job is astounding.

Delusional American Exceptionalism at its worst.

Either you try and control it a bit, contain it a bit and contact trace, or for the USA you accept 500,000 plus avoidable deaths a year.
Australia say 40,000.

then we have 3 times that number with shredded lungs or grey voids in their brains .... brain fog like Alzheimer's and heart and kidney and liver issues for the rest of their life.
Bliss.
I am sure, over time ... a cure or better way of dealing with it will be found but its going to take time.
The delusional gap between the USA index's and day trading idiots and the overall rest of the world ... is insane. Our market, somewhat less idiotic, if one took out FMG via iron ore rallies and then just silly ones on the tech side and some retailers who reported not so great results but are up 25% ...
Our market is not that far away from 5,000 verses the 6,000 headline.

USA side, much the same .... take out the techs and its a grim picture.

Still unable to come up with any idea on valuation for a lot of stocks. Banks in particular. What happens with another 12 or 24 months of this ? Government support will and is being reduced over time. That said it will be a long time till say overseas travel or visitors return. How Qantas is where it is or such things as Casinos are where they are astounds me.

Time and patience is on the side of just waiting.

In the meantime another 60 days of stupidity game show antics. I thought I saw 1,000 older Americans at the White house at a Trump rally without masks for 99% of them and no social distancing whilst chanting USA ... USA .... USA ...

Must be this bad dream 2020 has been a D grade movie with a racist dictator running things.

Stay cool and safe

Mark
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 25 2020, 07:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Lets be like USA ....

Is say 20,000 dead Australians enough ? Adjusted for size.

USA just hit 180,000 dead for the Republican convention and its likely the real numbers is 150% of that ... so 250,000 PLUS.

Its about HALF of where it will be by end of 2020 .... USA side.

Can we be just like them ? You first ....

Or better still anyone you care about first then ... you ? Or maybe Mr Trump ?

Then again Mr Trump only cares about himself so that totally invalidates the question.



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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 23 2020, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

OH and I was being fair ...
on the 4th May they massively adjusted their numbers UP .... estimates ... the first picture ....

they doubled it basically that day ...


I gave that on the previous post. The higher number.

Here is Today's new number and the pre change one USA had.
Why is Australia even speaking to the USA regime right now ? OR are we also right wing ghouls ?

All it took was a White House dinner for Hillsong and Scotty ...

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 23 2020, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Amazing ....

USA regime Govts favorite site ... for estimates

USA Govt estimate of Genocide Numbers COVID19


whilst you were distracted.
Total deaths
309,918- COVID-19 deaths
based on Current projection scenario by December 1, 2020

Since handover is not till 20th January 2021 ... if Trump is ejected, that's 3 months further so add another 150k .... since its winter in the USA by then.
Sickening stuff as this thing congratulates himself on a job well done. Is that 450,000 ? By end of January 2021.


Gee This was May ... after they updated it .... its only likely 300,000- Humans more .... just 450,000 ... and he is still on the ticket for 2020 ?


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 20 2020, 08:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Another worthy article ...

Basically along same lines. We need TIME ... and what we DON'T know is massive.

No quick solution sadly.

What the immune response to the coronavirus says about the prospects for a vaccine

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

This article is somewhat more positive, but cautious all the same due to lack of TIME and unknowns about the thing.

Take care
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 19 2020, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Very worthy article ...
What we know about COVID19 .... NOW.

Not something nutjobs can or will read.

Science not ... rubbish and factual as opposed to conspiracy theories or delusional people speaking about the flu.

Seven months later, what we know about Covid-19 and the pressing questions that remain


The thinking is that a case of Covid-19, like other infections, will confer some immunity against reinfection for some amount of time. But researchers won't know exactly how long that protection lasts until people start getting Covid-19 again.Researchers don't know for sure what level of antibodies are required to block the virus from gaining a toehold in cells, and what role pathogen-fighting T cells might have in fending off an infection. People who recover from Covid-19 also produce varying levels of antibodies it's possible people who generate a weaker initial immune response might not be protected for as long from reinfection.

"We don't know for how long that immune response lasts," the WHO's Van Kerkhove said last week. "We don't know how strong it is."


https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/17/what-we-now-know-about-covid19-and-what-questions-remain-to-be-answered/


Its long ... gives BOTH sides as to science and goes into the key questions. Likely upsetting to anti vaccine dummies and the flat earth society members.


I hope or hoped. as in past tense. for a quick solution to this Virus, its clear that is unlikely.

How long immunity lasts of if you get get it again is it milder, is of interest in the extreme. Only time will answer this.

Vaccine stuff, all revolves around this key question. The side effects set out in the article are sobering. Scary ... if one reads the studies the article alludes to as to effects on Lung heart and brain ... longer term ones.



Stay safe
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 18 2020, 04:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Every day ...

Another study.

Trump I note is pushing an Oleander derivative. A plant that is toxic in the extreme. Unproven of course.
Gates study of a mere 15 people claims some long term immunity if infected.
On the flip side .... two studies of 1,200 and 15,000 that show T cell immunity and antibodies disappear after day 90. There are about 15 on this side and less than 5 on the other side like Gates study if one could call it that.

The Bill Gates study has not been peer reviewed and came out yesterday. Seriously 15 people ? It directly contradicts 10 of the other papers with at times thousands of people studied. I note it cut off at DAY 86 ..... this is the cliff that the other studies noted was an extreme antibody ...T cell .. drop-off.

Basically the Gates Foundation funded study at best voodoo science ... due to size and deliberate length on the study ...


One simple question ... or a few still remain to be answered.

Can you get it again ... and again ???

Is a vaccine possible if the immunity is vanishing ?

I note the NIH in the USA is becoming less reliable as any source of science.

The science people are talking about a vaccine now that works for 6-12 monhts at most with boosters needed and is only 50% effective.
Not an outcome one would wish for.

Of course conjecture and speculation is what is is ... just that.It is not however looking at all promising for a one shot immune for say 10 years vaccine.

Fauci the USA guy who is at best dodging Trump and his theories is even speaking of a less effective vaccine. One that likely is not well tolerated and will not be great for those most at risk with underlying conditions and those over the age of 65.

Read a paper on Mutations and with 6 main ones and ... 100 subs or so in that group ... the virus of course mutates as it is passed but nothing too alarming at this stage other than any vaccine has to be tested ... challenged tested and people deliberately infected to see any use that vaccine has against the various strains.

Basically ... TIME and well, fingers crossed for a one shot or 2 shot thing that lasts for 5 years if not 10 and is well tolerated and accepted by all those at risk.

Realistically, there are more questions being raised as time goes on rather than answers found.

Hope is all I can have for a good outcome.

Possibly Trump can boil up some Oleander tea ? Famous case of person murdered via that in Australia.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 18 2020, 07:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Ahh uh ..

Nice cat.

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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 17 2020, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I wish the PC camera was turned off when some share their views ....

Seriously ...
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 14 2020, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yep franking credit ...

Lucked some at the low today,
One never knows where you end up in the order list.

I am adjusting for franking credits with my assumptions .... 5% with franking and 6.5% without. That is my moat of safety and unless the market gives it to me, I dont give the money away. Conversely when it goes to silly side stuff .... say 4% without franking credits ... or 3% with, by then I go well you can have it back. About 50% gains between the two and holding ... with dividends as well.

Gives some margin or moat of safety if there is such a thing nowadays.

With banks, being harsh on them and demanding even higher from what I suspect will be half dividends for a while. Sure longer term ... it will be fine or the world ends, but prior to that there is some pain to endure ... our govt will not be bailing out every corporate willy nilly like the USA and abandoning covid testing and contract tracing.

Only time will tell on this but have been playing the TLS game for 20 years or more. I tend to sell too early and often buy too early leaving lots for the rest either side which they are welcome to.
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 14 2020, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy,

well half the brokers like it .... some love it and some hate it.

UBS has a buy and value of $3.70 on it still after the results.
I do agree we are in a low interest rate environment for many years. YES any return looks good and when banks are likely to pay half or 40% of old dividends as CBA did and most will not be as good as that as the dust settles post COVID19 ... that's 3% ish for many ...
TLS whilst longer term not worried, being the type who adjusts holdings to price, .... I loved it below $3- not so much at $3.40 and again, with the dividend still there till 25th Aug ... same stuff.

Our market to me is following the USA which has cut taxes again .... and again .... and again ... making their already non paying corporate side more a joke.That payroll tax and Medicare just saved employers 7% .... off their tax bill has NOTHING to do with Australia. However we followed equity wise.
Trump 2020 or Biden is ... not much different. Both corporate neo liberal types and unlikely any of the massive holes Trump has made fiscally slashing company tax then audits, then supervision, then rules and depreciation cuts and so on and now this .... whilst not immediate, USA has halved its tax collecting .... HALVED.

None of it will create a job ... or trickle down.
At some stage the rest of the world, who has let companies on the main deal with COVID19 and its implications and taken care of the people will come to roost. USA will have a deficit of over 150% of GDP and collect 10% in tax federally whilst trying to spend 15% ... a year.

EU will have say 140% of Tax to GDP at worst, collect 40% of GDP in tax and well ... the better long term risk is obvious.

Bottom line the year goes on and USA under billionaires ... both sides does not give a stuff about COVID19 or deaths and well at 1,100 a day and 140 days till the end of the year is 350,000- a decent call ?
As such, at some stage, eventually the fiscal taps are turned off. USA has done this for the non billionaires whilst handing a 500 billion gift to Walmart and large employers. In the meantime slashed Unemployment support to $300- HALF what it was and well ... it will eventually hit.
EU and other nations can no longer ignore Apple and Google and FB tax theft.
Eventually ... USA will correct, or its currency implode ...

Basically happy to wait.

We will follow ... and whilst we are at 6,100 miles away from recent highs, USA is close to its highs.
Nothing like a tax holiday for the needy and COVID19 for the poor.

As such .... I wait and will add ... if able to on the way down.DO expect TLS dividend to be cut ... minimum to 14 cents and possibly to 12 cents in coming years.

As such, if I demand a 5% yield on say 13 cents that's $2.60 I would be happy to get set at.Sure I will buy higher ... $2.95 without the Dividend ... and slowly as it goes down.
Trying to average that number around $2.60 for better or worse.


That's the plan at least.
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 14 2020, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Uh huh ....

Conflating and minimizing and maximizing things abounds.

That we have someone comparing USA 30,000 FLu deaths a year to 200,000 USA COVID19 deaths as the same when its a merely since APRIL 1st so ... that's 4 1/2 monhts is par for the course.

I would agree skepticism is needed with some sceintific papers. I do it myself. Peer review is often tearing rubbish papers to bits, that its a published paper means not a thing.

COVID19 whilst not being alarmist in the extreme is the worst virus in 100 years.

Either we deal with it, minimize its impacts, or we do not. Denial is not working for USA and if one merely goes there are 200 days till April 1 2021 ... at 1,000 a day which is LOW .... is 400,000 deaths the same as 30,000 ? Apparently it is !!

Each to their own. Tin foil hats often work !!

Makeup is better
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 13 2020, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yep ....



These days, when there are so many science deniers, it may feel like arguing with them is absolutely pointless. But a 2019 study published in the journal Nature Human Behavior showed that it's in fact worth arguing with them.

Philipp Schmid and Cornelia Betsch of the University of Erfurt in Germany conducted six experiments with 1,773 subjects. They assessed "how to mitigate the influence of a denier on the audience."

The results showed that "not responding to science deniers has a negative effect on attitudes towards behaviors favored by science (for example, vaccination) and intentions to perform these behaviors."

...
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 13 2020, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy,
TLS results spell to me ... a cut dividend in 2021 and beyond around the 12 cent mark.
The 2021 ... forward call they said was not good. In fact very poor. This is outside COVID19 factors and NBN stuff is rolling off.

Suspect its value somewhere, but a long way away from here.
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 13 2020, 11:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yippe ..
Covid testing HALVED in some USA states.

Texas ... 29 million people managed to test a mere 32,699 people the last 2 days ....

It got 49% .... YES 49% POSITIVES for COVID19 ... 16,003 cases

Is this what genocide looks like ?


Stock market in the USA went up of course .... Trump praised himself 17 times on his testing efforts and Covid 19 in the last 2 press conferences.This is sadly factual ..... .

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/texas
That impressive .... testing at 2% the rate of Victoria for .... 50 times MORE positives. And NO contact tracing for Texas !! NONE.

Life is dirt cheap in the USA .... in 2020.

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 11 2020, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Confused ...
that's is where I am.

USA has actually halved .... HALVED testing in some states.If you dont test, less cases are found.
TO be nice, the white elite likely will get less hit and the poor black and browns ... hit hard.

During this pandemic in the USA tax cut upon tax cut and now another ONE .... cutting payroll tax for employers DOES NOT CRATE JOBS.Trump actually is considering a capital gains tax holiday .... to create jobs he said.
What a total load of BS.

Any attempt at even containment in the USA is a joke. States are out of money and their main source is via sales tax, most cant go and borrow and well ... the Senate blocked any and all attempts to bail out the states along with expanded testing and contact tracing.
This does not mean Trump will loose 2020. The number of white religious and actual racists in the USA cannot be underestimated.
Sending kids back to school in the USA .... is NOT going well. In fact terribly.

Giving a holiday if you have a job .... on payroll tax merely for the poor makes the income higher and you pay More tax. For companies in the USA who avoid tax and ones like Amazon pay no tax anywhere to anyone .... its a great windfall not having to shell out 6.25% in Social Security and Medicare for their employees.

Vaccine stuff is NOT going well with a mere 1,500 signed up despite very generous money to take the Moderna vaccine which sent 13.34%to hospital. Basically if they are lucky maybe end of Sept they have the 30,000 .... and then ... it needs 12 months including deliberately infecting people to see if the bloody thing works.

I wish to be positive but the ... science is alarming at side effects of just normal covid 19 on people of all ages. Grey spots in grains of 1,200 average age 44 .... similar but even younger heart MRI and tests say well over 50% that had inflamed hearts and 34% who appeared to have had a heart attack.
Either you contain ... this thing .... or NOT. USA is not even trying.

Australia is a tale of many nations with some states up around 100 days of Covid free community transmission ... NT is over that .... Tas and ACT and WA doing well. Then we have Victoria and NSW. NSW is nothing compared to VIc and over time, we will snuff this out and change. Moving forward we all hope with increased supervision of overseas travelers and mask ... when needed for some states .... in 4-6 weeks we have it under wraps again.
Lets cross our fingers.

For the USA ... well Florida never really tried testing ... NO contact tracing. Its almost halved the number of tests it does, hence the drop in USA daily numbers. Texas well its only down 33% ... Arizona 40% and Tennessee 38% . All for Trumps election.
The most despicable thing of the past, recent past was the CDC not treating syphilis suffers for 40 years, black people ... went on till 1975 ....
The blacks were told they were being treated .... they were NOT.
https://www.history.com/news/the-infamous-4...-tuskegee-study

Clinton eventually apologized for it.
Then again ... CDC claims Latinos live 5 years longer in the USA than anywhere else .... and they have the lowest healthcare in the USA. Whilst less cancer they have double the diabetes and heart issues of other races. Reality is .... no adjustment is made for the 500,000 illegals who enter each year and the same number sent back home. Basically the new ones on average are 15 years younger and fitter .... so they never .... expire on any Census or CDC measure. Basically overstating the whole USA life numbers at 78 years ... by about 3 .... so life expectancy at birth on average in the USA is 75 .... not 78 ... and it was equal to EU best 40 years ago. Of course ... massive difference in life expectancy if you have healthcare in the USA or are rich. Some counties have Monaco like life numbers around 90 and others, many many others .... poor ... often colored its age 55 average.

This however ....
Covid19 and no tests for 330 million as of the 1st March ... or 1,556 tests to be exact, now 5 months latter NO contact tracing in the USA for most, testing at 3rd world rates and well .. Trump going it is what it is ?

I am agog.

Sorry but humans ... at times ... like Rwanda where close to a million hacked each other to death with machetes ... was awful, this, virus and how to contain and control the spread has been know for 100 years. We have a repugnant dictator saying it will go away ? Its safe for kids when 100,000 got it in the last 3 weeks in the USA ? And in the meantime handing out tax breaks to his mates, and bribes to others whilst doing stuff all ?

I hope they are proud of their efforts.

Why is Australia sniffing this nations behind ? USA .... during a genocide !!
Is Morrison just a spineless toad ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 9 2020, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

For some ...
Its more a racist thing in the USA ....

It hits the poor .... the non whites and well .. they for some are even worth less. Seems to excite others I can see. For myself its a disgust that some people are this way. Lets destroy healthcare is Trumps latest move. Poor .... black brown ... whites ...

Imagine how sick your mind has to be to to think that way, or not even be able to work out 500,000 deaths is more than 30,000.

Of course some is unavoidable, and Canada having 2,000 cases a week and USA 500,000 .... USA is 10 times the size .... so 480,000 excess cases, and USA is jumping off a likely cliff sending 40 million kids back to school.
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 9 2020, 04:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

OH and Israel ...

It sent the kids back when ? Mid May 2020 .... Cases were nearly ZERO ... USA is far from that.
Numerous scientific papers on COVID19 in children and their ability to spread it, in fact super spread it as most dont show even symptoms.

Look hard and long at the chart below. USA is shocking now, kids back .... tomorrow and next 10 days ....

I wish it was NOT so. But ... slashing testing as Trump has done to claim cases are falling ? Now add some more petrol to the COVID19 fire.

Of course, for some, even understanding value of human life is beyond them. I note Barron Trumps school will not be going back.
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 9 2020, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sociopaths and Psychopaths ... and severely mentally disturbed

have tells ....

A lack of compassion, remorse, empathy is just one of the 7 traits.

Comparing flu deaths in the USA which in a bad year of 30,000 to covid 19 which in 4 months has hit 200,000 USA deaths likely total .. and its at 500,000 or so infections a week so 10,000 more deaths a week for 30 weeks, grand total 500,000- Americans. Is 30,000 dead is the same as 500,000 ? And then add long term damage to lungs, brain and heart and liver of say 2.5 million more. Is that the same ?

In deeply disturbed mind, they are merely insects, ants of some sub species.

Since some like Trump continue NOT to even acknowledge its an issue and this week yet again claimed it will go away.He actually slashed testing and kids go back to school in the USA Monday. Science shows those under 18 get COVID19 but on the main dont show symptoms and shrug it off.
Israel got their covid under control and sent kids back in May 2020. Cases exploded, went up over 30 fold. It again had to shut down.
USA leadership has ruled that out. Insects ... back to work ,,,, your unemployment is cut ...

In fact Trump just announced he intends to remove Social security which is pensions .... people paid into all their lives and also abolish Medicare in the USA. During a pandemic ? That's healthcare for those who are retired, for those who are disabled.
For like minds, if one can call them that, they rejoice.

For most, not in those fringes of personality ... human life has value.

For those on the fringes, their is no understanding even of these basic concepts.

What sort of a genocidal maniac would slash testing in some states 33% in the last 10 days to send kids back to school ?
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 9 2020, 03:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

OH and Israel ...

It sent the kids back when ? Mid May 2020 .... Cases were nearly ZERO ... USA is far from that.
Numerous scientific papers on COVID19 in children and their ability to spread it, in fact super spread it as most dont show even symptoms.

Look hard and long at the chart below. USA is shocking now, kids back .... tomorrow and next 10 days ....

I wish it was NOT so. But ... slashing testing as Trump has done to claim cases are falling ? Now add some more petrol to the COVID19 fire.

Of course, for some, even understanding value of human life is beyond them. I note Barron Trumps school will not be going back.
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 9 2020, 03:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sociopaths and Psychopaths ... and severely mentally disturbed

have tells ....

A lack of compassion, remorse, empathy is just one of the 7 traits.

Comparing flu deaths in the USA which in a bad year of 30,000 to covid 19 which in 4 months has hit 200,000 USA deaths likely total .. and its at 500,000 or so infections a week so 10,000 more deaths a week for 30 weeks, grand total 500,000- Americans. Is 30,000 dead is the same as 500,000 ? And then add long term damage to lungs, brain and heart and liver of say 2.5 million more. Is that the same ?

In deeply disturbed mind, they are merely insects, ants of some sub species.

Since some like Trump continue NOT to even acknowledge its an issue and this week yet again claimed it will go away.He actually slashed testing and kids go back to school in the USA Monday. Science shows those under 18 get COVID19 but on the main dont show symptoms and shrug it off.
Israel got their covid under control and sent kids back in May 2020. Cases exploded, went up over 30 fold. It again had to shut down.
USA leadership has ruled that out. Insects ... back to work ,,,, your unemployment is cut ...

In fact Trump just announced he intends to remove Social security which is pensions .... people paid into all their lives and also abolish Medicare in the USA. During a pandemic ? That's healthcare for those who are retired, for those who are disabled.
For like minds, if one can call them that, they rejoice.

For most, not in those fringes of personality ... human life has value.

For those on the fringes, their is no understanding even of these basic concepts.

What sort of a genocidal maniac would slash testing in some states 33% in the last 10 days to send kids back to school ?
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

....
A normal response may have been to acknowledge at a minimum the issue and deaths.
Sadly your even unable to do that.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yes it excites you ...

humans dead and dying. Plucking numbers ? They are factual ... and increasing at close to 500,000 a week in the USA .... 10,000 deaths.

I note you still are unable to express any remorse, sympathy, empathy or compassion for the situation.


Zero ...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sigh ...
I always find it helpful NOT testing ... as Trump just bragged about USA cases falling .... some states with outbreaks 10 times worse than ours testing at 60% slashed testing this week by 33% ...

MAGA ... elect your madman ...
This is the South .... testing ... and they are up over 15% positives per test, so if your test 100,000 a day nationally less it disappears ? Pol Pot was an amateur. Trump has no limit where he will stop. NONE>

No contact tracing in the South .... and kids back at school in some states. Yippee .... Rwanda and the genocide there was not a fluke.

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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

When someone speaks about Flu deaths ...
Conflates say 30,000 USA flu deaths in a very bad year .... and compares it to COVID 19 ... which likely the real number is 200,000 so far this year .... in the USA

I know its time to not engage . One is likely 400,000 DEATHS in 12 months and long term damage in 3 times as many .... is that 30,000 ? Or 1.2 million with brain issues or lung issues or heart issues for the rest of their lives ?

How COvid 19 finishes is ... vaccine or antiviral but not sure that's much use ... as the thing damages lungs, clearly brains .... and other organs or a prophylactic.

In the meantime which may be ... 9 months or NEVER ... its what we do, in the meantime.

What occurs globally and since conspiracy fools and imbeciles dont like vaccines even when ones are tested, which cannot occur for say 9 months despite Trumps wishes, without full testing to assure safety ... which takes time ... then we have possibly a solution.

I am not trolling, merely expressing how stupid it is to ignore science in favor of your pet theories about aliens or whatever. Next you will be comparing it to AIDS ... which well as you know needs transfer of body fluids ... or nuclear war ... whoops sorry you already did !!

Possibly the next argument would be your unlikely to catch it ... in Australia yep ... USA just hit 5 million cases, NOT the asymptomatic ones .... people who show signs and of them half now appear to have issue beyond getting over it.

It would be helpful if you just would not sprout your conspiracy theories so I am not tempted to insult your quaint beliefs.

5.095 million cases in the USA as of right now. Herd immunity seems unlikely given the latest science, and anyhow one would need 70% infected to get there so .... good luck

That I expressed my dismay at the course the USA has taken seems to have upset you ... So mocking you is the least one can do !! Likely 400,000 deaths American and 10 million infected excites you !! Certainly no remorse or even sorrow shown so far just denial. Denial ... and more kooky theories. That poor gym sock ..

Sorry but turn off your camera on your computer its distracting.
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

On and on ..


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Isn't it the flu ?





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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 08:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Really ?



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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 8 2020, 08:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sigh ...

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 7 2020, 09:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

?

Your point if any ? None of the gibberish you spurt makes any sense.
Or is it still the flu to your universe ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 7 2020, 06:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sigh ....

USA testing down 15% ... nationally in 14 days ....

Down an insane 25-33% in Florida and Arizona ..the most infected states ..... since White house took over all data.

Alan Jones .... our resident Trumpist and George Pell supporter along with climate denier , claims lock-downs dont stop the spread of COVID19 ...

Trump again claims it will go away ...
Just like the Murdoch Media and Alan Jones ...


Georgia Schools open ... it worked out so well for Israel and their COVID19 rate went up 5 fold when kids went back.

Then again with Trump now in control of whats reported .... and its a an election USA is declaring less cases ... via magic.
USA fed again says it will bail out the needy SP500 and all unemployment benifits halted 7 days ago for the poor.

USA stocks hit all time highs .... the lower 40% cant pay rent, face eviction and anyone with a mortgage is in dire straights as no jobs and benifits cut out after 12 weeks in Florida and Texas.

Bliss.....
Donald Trumps says it will go away ... as Did Alan Jones and this despite 165,000 dead which is likely 200,000. They ... to these types are ... well since its more black and brown for Trump ... and poor whites, there is NO number that will have any impact on him.

NONE ... not 200,000 nor 300,000 .... and its 90 days so ... at 1,100 a day ... close to the latter when he is re elected ?
Strange times

I understand they need people for Challenge tests for the vaccines ... If only it worked that way.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 4 2020, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy ...

USA is of course different to Australia.
It does however lead our market and equities.
The bailout in the USA was targeted at the top end. The bottom ... well one cheque 4 months ago.
The debate is about the Unemployment top up and for many, they cannot even get that.

Renting in the USA is a looming issue as are mortgages ... without adequate support for the masses and well .... go back to work ... ignore the virus because its not at my country club ... is a fact of life. Sadly the jobs however one wishes to put it ... many are gone. Half of USA is living with the virus and acting accordingly and the other half ... NOT.

If this bill in the USA does not pass or slashes the unemployment number to $200 a week ... and the worst states unemployment is very hard to get and runs out after 10 weeks in Florida and Texas ... mayhem will ensue.

Food insecurity there is at 100 year highs. Trump tries to cut aid for food stamps for the ultra poor.Pandemic ... tries to slash medicare and demolish Obama care. This is when million have lost their health cover along with their jobs.
Still the market rises as well off Americans complain about the FLU and wearing masks and become day traders.
Victoria hit 78 cases per million PEAK .... contact tracing and tested at surge 4% .... of the population but say 3.5% IN A WEEK.
USA slashed testing in recent days .... down 33% in some states that hit 600 cases per million recently and YES the rte has fallen but without testing ... and contact tracing ?

Here is perspective ....
Regional and on average NO contact tracing for 230 million .... and well testing barely got above 2% nationally .... EVER and its FALLING for Trump election.
They are INSANE and out of their minds.
40 million have NOT paid their rent and cant .... 40 million are way behind on their mortgage and face eviction as well ... in the USA.

We are thankfully far better off ... with govt support. Of course, we need to change and wear bloody masks and distance ourselves. Also zero tolerance for those who do NOT.
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 4 2020, 08:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sigh ...

Lock downs DO NOT prevent the virus spread ? Yes leader of the free world Donald Trump just said that at today's media briefing.

What ? WTF ?

If your looking USA has beaten the virus and he is declaring because tests come back less than 5% positives in some states .... they have won.
Victoria ... under 1% .... with contact tracing. Lets ignore the virus and let it rip ... just like Donald ..... fudge numbers .... on deaths ... slash testing and forget about contact tracing that's too hard. Only 50 nations do that ... just like Australia ... even bloody Vietnam is able to do it and its not a rich nation. Obviously a smarted one than Donald's world. Then again ... if your rich in the USA ... its mainly hitting the peasants and non whites.



In some states positives are 19% ... on tests ... results come back in Arizona 12 days latter and NO contact tracing.
Testing for the USA election has STOPPED .... no that's being unfair but Florida with no contact tracing and most things open and even Disney .... fell ... fell by 25% ... and case numbers reported FELL .... DERR. Some states testing fell by 33% in 14 days .... with insane infection rates.

Arizona ... same ... massive falls in tests.
Florida went from 420,000 tests a week with NO contact tracing and that's 2% of population and getting 19% positives .... down to 320,000 a week for Trumps CLOWN show !!


Whilst I want a vaccine .... TIME is needed.
One simple question .... Science and 15 or more papers now show the antibodies drop off beyond day 60 for most people even with full COVID19

So the vaccines on trial .... ignoring their likely possible other side effects if not tested. Is one possible ... that lasts say beyond 60 days ?
All of these vaccines are of course producing antibody responses at day 28 or 30 or 34 ..... one that tested over 55's Antibodies and the response was HALF that seen in under 55's ....

Will this stop a maniac .... declaring an untested vaccine .... valid ?

I want a cure to this COVID19 and a vaccine ... but ... seriously .... this post 60-90 day antibody issue is just ONE of three massive questions that WILL take time.

I am still agog at USA federally stopping testing. NO contact tracing in most infected states .... and that idiotic comment about LOCK DOWN .... NOT stopping the spread ?
I note one of our politicians went over there and sadly ... she seems to have a Trump look after some time in Washington ... maybe she was like that prior to her departing.


No I checked she had BROWN or Blonde hair ... prior to this ... has she got the other virus >? Trump Cult Virus ?
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 2 2020, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Vaccines ...

Well ... as someone who since 1992 followed the AIDS search, my co worker a PHD was interested and well ... 20 false hopes ... 50 magic cures ... which were BS ...
COVID19 has even simple questions that make me shudder as we progress with knowledge.

Unlike AIDS where the immune system breaks down and eventually your body is attacked in a multitude of ways ....
COVID19 yes attacks the lungs of all ... then ... 55% have their heart damaged ,,, google German study heart damage covid 19 ..

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective...vid-19-patients
Brain ... similar issues ... Liver same ... Kidneys if anything worse


Bottom line your own immune system attacks you in many cases. NO years till full blown aids hits, no sex .... each person their immune system responds differently

Oh and that magic 60 day antibody dispersing act .... 15 plus papers ... science ones ... not the pseudo science some new vaccine makers are persisting with ....
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/932671
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7346807/
The list goes on and on.
We hope for a well tolerated vaccine by all ... one shot lifetime immunity even 2 ...

Seems not ... or a lot of testing prior to any vaccine.
Next ... and there are 10 valid issues .... whoppers ...
Over 55 vaccine FAILED to get desired response .... the Warp speed ones only tested under 55's and well Moderna sent 13.34% to hospital on their trails.
Can SIno results stage 2 ....

Chinese biotech CanSino, that had been previously released. The Phase 2 results showed that, as was seen in the Phase 1 data, the vaccine induced neutralizing antibody responses which could be vital to preventing the diseases dangerous symptoms in most subjects. But further study continues to show that this vaccine works better in some people than others. And among those it didnt work as well in were people aged 55 and older, a key target for Covid-19 vaccination.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/study-provides-first-glimpse-of-efficacy-of-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine/
That's just the tip ... sadly.
The most needy of the vaccine are the older ones. Ones with bung immune systems and so on.
A vaccine that Dr Fuaci is now lowering its effective rate needed to possibly 50% .... will of course work for those under age 50 ... with no issues.
Not sure one can get around the fact the body seems to forget between 60 and 90 days it ever got infected.
I would add, getting your body to actually have an immune response .... when the virus ... this one actually sends it at times into overdrive the opposite of AIDS may be a good idea if that's how your body reacts to being infected.

It needs ... well longer testing ... to be even remotely safe.
There are 80 strains as of 2 months ago ... does it or will it work on them ?

Like many I am asking more, as knowledge and science defines what the thing is. More questions coming up, not being solved. Needing answering prior to any hope of a cure or vaccine.
AIDS has no vaccine .... its managed thankfully by keeping the virus at bay in somewhat suspended animation .... COVID 19 attacks suddenly and with damage at the onset so this is not ... possible.
There is however a prophylactic that exists for aids giving brief cover from infection. A prophylactic when your at risk that works for a short period of time.
I suspect, with incomplete knowledge at best a vaccine is 18 months away, if ever. A prophylactic we can take ... all of us for a month could possibly be the long term solution to eradication. Leaning this way ... or longer term some drug that deals with most virus attacks but that could be never or likely many years.
Vaccine ... given what is being learnt by science ... is ... less and less likely and a growing group of very eminent scientists and much better qualified people are raising alarms.

Only time will tell on this quest, but in the meantime ... pretending and ordering a vaccine not yet invented seems to be the USA thing. Testing has stopped effectively and when you get 19% positives in one of your largest states and then drop testing levels 15% to claim all is well ... Florida ... it will not and does not go away..

Food for thought these ones. The brains and science will answer them. In the meantime ... Moderna and Gilead ... are shonks .... as is one other of the Warp speed vaccine companies selected. Moderna and the other one .... have never made a vaccine or a drug EVER. These are 3 of the 5 .... selected. I have no issues with Pfizer or GSK or Oxford Astra .... other than some dribble out of their mouths. Modernas vaccine is so poorly tolerated in humans compared to the 3 others with results out ... its a joke ... a sick one.

Have fun
I am a fan of vaccines. YES they have a tiny fail rate, TINY and for say Small pox its 1-2 in a million. Others larger but ... not serious verses the benifits .. older ones ... now not used other than by Mr Gates on unsuspecting Indians for polio ... had higher fail rates and more modern Polio vaccine has 2% of the fails of the old pill version from 1983.
Safety and dealing with this new virus sadly takes time. Extreme care since a vaccine is given to health and vulnerable to protect them. NOT potentially make things worse.
Any news prior to December 2020 ... if they now progress into stage 3 on these 5 warp speed vaccines and 30,000 ... its takes 90 days to answer even the most basic question as to antibodies fading post 90 days .... we sadly I suspect will see over 55's with very weak immune response from all of these in about 60 days. How many Moderna removes from its supposedly scientific study or have extreme reactions ... I suspect will be more than any of the other 3 put together. As to the one that's never made a vaccine and its ... well stage 2 results. Its about money baby .... 250 mio market cap is now 5 billion ... Moderna never made a drug or vaccine went to 25 billion market cap ... massive awards of options and the leader of operation I went my pants ... Warp Speed in the USA ... board member of Moderna ... massive shareholder ... previous with GSK ,,, massive share holder .... no I dont see any conflicts anywhere with science.

Never let a pandemic go to waste .... 2 tax cuts or handouts to the rich .... handouts to save the top end ... back to work peasants in the USA ... testing all but a joke ... you get your results back in Arizona 12 days PLUS from the test which at that stage your in hospital or NOT ....

Are we still sniffing the USA like a dog ? I saw some red haired man/woman over there ranting recently ? And we rely upon the USA for a vaccine ?

LMFAO ... or actually cry for the things that the people outside the top 10% endure. We follow blindly ... and all it took was a white house dinner ?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 2 2020, 11:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Perspective ....

USA and its denial ... Tennessee similar size as Victoria ... NO contact tracing
NO masks .... or very few ... bars open and the picture is Saturday night in Nashville and around 10,000 outside on the pavements no social distancing and well no intentions to close down.

Its cases Tennessee are 10 times Victoria ..... 10 times .... Testing takes 10 days till you get a result.
Victoria surge tested at close to 4% of Population per week on a single day and in the 3.5% of all the population .... in a week ... ALL CONTACT TRACED.
Whilst Tennessee is testing at close to best for a USA state .... 3% in a week .... the virus rages ON.

What is most alarming is Trumps actions. We deal with this virus till a vaccine comes along which is looking more difficult. Drop off in antibodies past the 60 day mark and NONE after day 30 in some .... over 55's from recent stage 2 trial ... the only one that tested on over 55's ... antibodies less than half of those aged lower.

The worst states and testing at 1.3% .... per week and even WORSE infection rates .... Arizona actually dropped testing 25% ... for Trumps election in the past 8 days. Florida with an infection rate 12 times say New York and returning an insane 19% positives per test ... which state does more tests ? the one with 12 times the infections over the last month being Florida or New York ? ... NEW York .... which DOES have contact tracing to slow the spread and Florida does NOT .

Our .... behavior must change till either a vaccine is found or we squish this curve.

Bench marking this globally ... Victoria is say 30 times 50 nations target goals and we, having being stupid ... are testing our brains out and contact tracing along with shutting down to further contain it and bloody MASKS. Arizona at 300 times what is accepted in 50 nations is insane. The 230 million in infected USA states only California has contact tracing ... the rest the average time back for a test is now 8 days. Ours is 48 HOURS.

Numbers are being played with in the USA and overall at 800k tests a day is for Trump .... too much. Sadly this virus does not give a damm.
At 5.6 million for 330 million people in a week that's well short of 2% .... its in fact 1.7% ...
If 50 nations ... EU and others can do it .... even Vietnam ... contact trace and test if needed in the 3-4% range the political denial and efforts of USA are worse NOW than even in March when a mere 1500 tests had been done by March 1st.

To maintain surveillance of say crucial high exposure saints .... Nurses and Doctors and Ambos ... that's 150,000 per 10 million so 1.5% and they are needing to be hyper vigilant so each week ... even in low risk infections one would expect a serious amount to be done. Going wider and again high threat nursing homes and say police and healthcare workers from janitors to food prep people its 3% ... and the USA had 150,000 cases per week not so long ago and that was 10 TIMES EU or our own goals ... when we breached say 20 ... and now at 30 for the past few weeks .... our testing responded.

USA responded with ... well ... denial and time lags on testing .... now nationally to 8 days. With say 1.7% being tested a week overall nationally and well over 70% of states in extreme RED zones .... insane ones up to 300 times EU accepted containment levels .... the supervision and testing of the 3% directly likely to come into contact with the Virus and even at best efforts our own saints have seen over 1,000 of the 7,000 recent cases coming form Nurses and Docs and aged care workers .... USA should be at a minimum testing close to 0.75% of them a week .... leaving a mere 1% ... of the public being tested.
This message in the USA of it not being so bad ... or since the Healthcare lobbyist now running HHS took over .. testing dropping magically when the virus is at insane levels .... is just that. Texas whilst it may be massive increased testing to protect the aged ... I find it now as time goes on ... the positive test rate in that state magically has dropped from 18% to 12% .... or 33%. Florida is still at 19%. TO test and protect doctors and nurses ... and aged care people is a good thing ... you want negative results back ... to be barely testing as Texas is ... and see this drop , unique in all other states .... other than ones like Arizona and Florida who actually tested LESS .... not more ... LESS people and as such reported cases fell. Texas to do this had to have either lied .... or 33% of testing NOW is healthcare workers which is possible but it would mean the public, was being tested say 25% less allowing for a small increase in their overall testing.

Florida and Texas both crucial states for USA elections. KEY ones. Both have well documented massive deliberate actions with downplaying COVID19 numbers and well ... if you dont test a person who presents to emergency with an oxygen rate so low they normally are dead .... so no contact tracing ... this is standard for USA in these two hell holes.


This is SOURCE factual data ..... on testing ...
https://covidtracking.com/data
No other nation would let the virus get this out of hand.


21 states in danger .... 1 or so .... 240 million ... humans at around 150 times EU accepted rates and our own.

The worst... in the USA is states in the 200 times EU rates say 7 times our own outbreak ... NO contact tracing testing at a mere 1.3% for the month and for most .... NO action shutting down. Some are valiantly trying but most states are out of money. Only source for many is sales tax .... and federal support cut off .... contact tracing support .... cut off.
If you dont test .... you will not find cases. Only partially reliable number now given testing has in effect stopped .... or become useless for most due to delays is a trailing one on deaths. This week USA will rise to around the 1,500 a day average as the week grinds on ... its where it goes form here. Clearly we can see in Australia the size of the spread ... via contact tracing. WE >.. need to change and respect this virus. USA spends half the time denying it.
Look at that picture ... its the same in Arizona in many parts ... Florida ... well Disney is open and so too bars skirting the laws ...

Humans get used to bubbles and the USA stock market owned by the top 20% .... mainly white .... mainly republican and the fate of those with less than good healthcare and the lower 80% with awful cover ... it hits them harder. Denial will go on for a few weeks as even the fudging of numbers by Florida and Texas get swamped by 10 other smaller states being honest. California who has said bugger it and shut down ... masks and contact tracing has a hope, but well for the USA as a whole ....
It just passed 200% of SPAIN overall in positives. Whilst USA is lying on the death rate overall via omission and not giving a stuff often, I do wonder if even a vaccine is declared safe .... by end of year which if you think I am annoyed at the testing .... the Vaccine stuff is WORSE .... new thread ... we all want one and tthats safe, but ... the total BS going on there .... at 1,500 a day for 50 weeks ? just over 500 k more deaths.
Its worse ... obviously ... the absurdity of pretending your testing ... an obscenity.

Gotta love Nashville ... or say 50 casinos with no mask rules and well ... Florida is just as bad and Texas a rainy day in the beach and .... literally thousands walking around like some immunity exists.
I thank the lucky stars we live here. We MUST change. USA ... I hold little hope pre election. Only reliable check as the virus progress is the number of deaths as long as they dont play with that too much .... rise to 1,500 or so reflecting the current under reporting of the issue. If it rises, grinding up as more and more and more ... get infected, say at 10% a week and the new normal is 2,000 a day and 14,000 a week and say 700,000 deaths pre vaccine if ... that is even possible.

Sad world. Sounds kooky but the pure DATA source on testing is given. Our testing data ... google it ... or this one

https://covidlive.com.au/
Testing without contact tracing to STOP or slow the spread ? A car without wheels ? Or one without an engine ?


Picture below ,,, Nashville and country music mecca at Saturday Night ... last week , this one looks busier. You can see about 10% of the bar scene and area so is there 1,000 outside you can see ? Its alive ... the virus is alive and well !!
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 1 2020, 11:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I want a vaccine ....

Believe in them ... but the USA efforts are non clinical approaching a joke. All funded by the goverment.
Having read all 7 of the advanced trials one stuck out .... Moderna Vaccine ...
I just read their test on Monkeys .... of their vaccine.
Basically they tested the effect of their vaccine day 28 after .... and golly gee ... it worked supposedly. Some missing monkeys from the study.
Whilst genetically they share 98% of our DNA and for some morons who can speak they are ... well from the planet of the apes.
MY question and the one serious efforts are asking is what occurs beyond day 60 ... when antibodies drop off.

this study is actually a joke scientifically, a game ? One where billions will be given a vaccine that is being tested to actually produce results rather than safe answers ?


Call me picky ... the Monkeys in question .... live to around age 25 ....

so testing ones aged 3-6 .... is testing human people aged 12-24.
Mortality and ability to shrug off the virus in these monkeys is virtually universal. NO BLOODY WONDER ....
Under age 25 .... whilst mortality and long term damage is an issue ... a person who gets full blown ... a HUMAN who gets full blown COVID19 aged under 25 has a mortality rate of around 0.6% with a decent medical system.

Age over age 50 .... to 65 its around 3% for decent medical systems and this does not include the USA ... as most have poor health cover.Aged over 65 its over 6.4% .... rising as age rise .... ignoring co morbidity issues. Over 80 ... its a shocker.
So testing on children and young adults and going golly gee this works ?

Call me annoyed and not stupid. Then again Dr Fauci claims the USA is conducting these trials in a clinical manner .
I would say this is some sick joke ? A farce ? Fauci is fighting against Trump ignorance and well political moves, but testing a group which already seems to shrug off the Virus ... the Monkeys .... and then testing on children and young adults ?
Who actually needs more protection ? Yes of course kids do, but in terms of mortality and long term damage it rises .... with age and a 40 year old may get the serious type and if into hospital likely will have lifetime damage to lugs and heart and also cognitive and live .... at a factor of 3 to under 25's and a factor of 6 for over 50 .... a factor of 10 for over 65 .... and a factor of 20 for over 80.

I prefer .... a safe ... effective vaccine tested clinically and CRASH tested not a joke the USA is right now in terms of science.
Have they lost their collective minds ?

Here is the Study

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2024671?query=RP

Here is an article on it ... not too critical at all ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/health/c...ne-monkeys.html

Moderna and Gilead failed in every sense with their trails and methods. That a vaccine producers antibodies after tested on mice and monkeys when tested on humans is a given .... or course its going to likely do that. Testing a group the monkeys that seems to have some natural ability itself to deal with Covid 19 and then test young healthy children and young adults ?

This is Americas number one vaccine they are supposedly going to release pre elections .... so Trump can claim victory ? I would NOT even try it on the bloody monkey aged 15 of their years .... 60 of ours and not expect vastly if not diabolically different results. As we age .... our immune response fades. This was seen in the Can Sino vaccine trial where over 55 people produced less antibodies.

Be bloody afraid of the political dialogue and this will go away ... It takes time to make a safe and effective drug ... let alone a vaccine that is injected into both healthy people and those with busted immune systems and the elderly.

This test ..[b]Moderna Vaccine... was and is a sceintific farce[/b]. Much like Trumps other cures.

Scientific community will not speak out, because to do so ... and your blacklisted for life. Hope I get .... I wish for a cure ... but to be led astray for personal gain ? Wake up Dr Fauci .... some other eminent scientist needs to point out the diabolical non clinical nature of some of these vaccine efforts USA is touting.

I dont care !! Even the dumbest of dumb ... can be made see this test, their methods and record to date is shoddy at best.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Aug 1 2020, 07:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Haha ...

Science cannot even answer one simple question with COVID19.
Can we get it again. Antibodies fade at day 60-90 .... even for serious cases. Does that mean they can get it again ?Only way to test is challenge test .... give it to someone again.

Does it mean second time you get it less serious ? OR just as bad ? There are 80 mutations as of 3 months ago.
Asymptomatic ... CDC has been releasing pure rubbish on this ... that up to 24 times those with the one showing symptoms have it.If so .... NY in some areas had 150% of people infected.

Florida is testing under 2% of people .... a week
SO nope as to herd immunity.
It is so bad FLORIDA that is adjusted for size .... in one single week its reporting 80,000 cases .... THAT'S 100% of what Italy recorded in a single week,


As to asymptomatic ..... a few big sceintific studies show .... their immunity fades at the 60 day mark with no detectable antibodies.

I would wish ... we get it once and its lifetime immunity ... but I suspect not.
Same for vaccine .... but clearly that's not going to be the case.

I hope for an early vaccine like Trump and his imbeciles are touting .... even Fauci ... who is very very poor verses any MD globally.

That a vaccine produces the expected results stage one and 2 .... occurs 99% of the time.
Does the vaccine actually work ... protecting ... have side effects .... well the moderna one sent 13.4% of its patients to hospital ... so not amused.
Timeline for any of these vaccines normally 4 years or more .... COVID19 is proving very complex in how it attacks ... what it attacks and what organs it goes for.
Lets say the next trail is reasonably well tolerated ... what occurs on day 90 ? Does immunity lapse ? What about how the virus in one person hits the liver and another the kidneys ... most people their heart .... some their brain .... we hope for the best, but giving a vaccine that has a total fail rate of say 5% is stupid.
In that .... TIME ... sadly is needed to be safe. I hope .... wish and pray .... once you get it ... that's it. Sadly the science is mounting for this possibly not to be the case.

Oh and Trump declaring Florida was doing well last week ?
Compared to what ?

I have no idea to many of these key and crucial scientific questions. I do however read .... the USA based studies are more Pseudo Science or non clinical or even utter conspiracy theory nut job stuff just like Trump and his doctor this week the one that believes aliens are in control and speaks about demon Spawn ...
Good name for Trump .... Demon Spawn.

What we dont know even now is everything.

WHO ... World Health is debating asymptomatic spread and whilst anecdotal .... in some ways but hard science in the other ... Australia with contact tracing and surge testing to close to 4% of the population ... in a week ... we just saw say 5 cases ... go to over 5000 ... or that Thai Restaurant where to went to over 70.

So either ASYMPTOMATIC spread is real .... or the other bug bear Trump and the CDC has been trying to downplay and say its safe ... the life of the Virus on a surface and its dangers ... is very real.

Can we get it again ? HMMM .... does herd immunity exist ? Well at over 70% infected. That is if you cant get it again ... and again ... and again ... and there are well documented scientific studies on many hundreds of cases. Problem is .... nations that get it ... in serious ways ... DO SOMETHING ...
dont deny it .... so reinfection risk when say Italy is getting 200 cases a day ... and that's 80 milllion so 3,200 A week adjusted for USA population size and USA is .. getting 500,000 ... a week. USA claimed the curve was flattened at 150,000 cases a week
Now its 500,000 ...
They actually tested LESS people iN Florida this week to Wednesday ... 372,000 WAY under 2% ... they got 82,000 new Cases

The previous week they tested 419,000 ... SO despite 22% POSITIVES ... they tested less.
I note they closed for a storm ... or Hurricane ...

HARD DATA ... not a myth the actual numbers live

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida

Today they tested 52,000 for just under 10,000 MORE cases. Not quite the 20% ....
The numbers since being passed from CDC to HHS and the loving hands of a Drug Lobbyist who now heads HHS and Jarad Kushner ... have been ... well unusual.

Texas claimed to have their infection go ... from 18% positives to 10% ... I think the weekly was 12% ... But in 7 days ... unless they are testing 33% more Hospital workers ... and people who you want to be negative, which is a good thing .... well ... its unique in the USA ... even if they wore masks which they dont on the main ... no other state has seen this occur let alone nation. Either you take action ... lock-down ... or masks ... and then its takes weeks ... NOT overnight ... when Ivanka's pretend husband takes over.

Time will tell on the virus .... however several vaccine makers speaking LONGER not sooner for a vaccine. Yes I know and wish for one TODAY. Second is 3 of the 7 making a vaccine are talking two shots initially and then a booster shot 12 months down the track ,,,,

I dont want to think this .... but Covid19 ... is AIDS ... without the sex ... and one requires body fluids to spread the other, well ... debate and crap on all you like for political agenda Trump ... he is not even alarmed at Florida ... adjusted for size hitting all of Italy's cases 100% in a single week.
This virus is voting for Trump ... it is in fact the Trump VIRUS.

USA has the ability to be testing at 4% a week ... and crucially surge testing. IT can shut down .... it can mandate masks and fine .... It can ... but Trump will not It upsets their rights ... it hits the less white people more so he ...and his openly racist platform are safe ?

Sadly ... I suspect ... this virus is far more complex than first though. As we learn, the scientists learn ... we are left with more questions than answers. As to the USA drug companies .... SHOCKING ... removing patients from clinical studies ? Are you kidding Moderna and Gilead ?? ... results via media release and then the clinical study drip fed over weeks ... and missing key data ? Vaccine one ... Moderna released study on vaccine given to monkeys .... likely 50 then they selected those who ... got the best antibodies and .... had 8 .... they then reinfected deliberately 8 ... and said their vaccine and the virus was fought off after 30 odd days .... on 7 of the monkeys. I am wondering ... what happened to number 8 ? Did he or she die ? Or get infected ? Or now is at the white house ? That is science ... warts and all ... but Moderna ? They are shocking.

I am more interested in post day 90 .... and ... well ... since you own immune system with this virus attacks you in many cases, having your immune system attack your own body, what does a vaccine do with this. Too many questions that take TIME >.. given the extreme complexity of this virus.

Happy thought is that ... we never get a vaccine.

I am sure over time some treatment will occur, but USA is happy NOT to test. to pretend with 500,000 cases a week .... testing LESS .... in fact lower than any EU nation would at 10% of this .... 75% of states with NO contact tracing ... its going away.
Golly ... books will be written about this for years. Actual Mortality is 4% or was for the USA when it was outside old aged homes. Then sadly its awful.
EU and Australia a lot better with functioning healthcare for all ... and 2% ish ...


4% on 500,000 .... that's 20,000 a week for what is likely 50 weeks .... that be a million. As to getting infected again ... or herd immunity ... USA is going to find out, but unlikely till 50 million more serious cases ... and Asymptomatic seems to be 3 ... and if I were a betting man, they ... milder cases appear to be able to get it again ... and again ... and again,
No nation has been that stupid to let this thing rage ...

Akin to me like Rwanda where 1 million slaughtered by hand with machetes ... this time just sheer stupidity. Oh and the racial thing ... its hitting black and brown people more. For NOW ....
too hard and depressing.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 31 2020, 06:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Florida ....
Last week reported 82,000 COVID19 cases.
Adjusted for size it reported MORE than the whole of Italy .... in a single week.
MORE.

It already has been caught for not reporting COVID deaths and its chief statistics person refused to comply ... she left.

Last week it ... announced 78,000 cases .... STILL larger than the whole of Italy adjust for size since this nightmare began.

Trump hailed the this as some success.
They close down testing now for 4 days due to a storm.

Instead of increasing testing .... or shutting down ... tests FELL ..... FELL this week by 10% to a mere 372,000 ....

NO contact tracing and very hard to get a test. The positive rate was 22% .... YES 22% of those who managed to get a test came back positive.
NO contact tracing.

I wonder how this is going to go ? That we have another 20 million to infect there .... it is right now at over 300 times EU infection rates and targets.
300 times .... no contact tracing and testing falling and testing is at HALF .... HALF EU levels.

I mourn. Texas is WORSE ..... they just make testing impossible to get ... massively increased testing at nursing homes ... which is good but public tests down 33% .... IN 2 weeks ?

Arizona .... worst .... like Florida testing fell 10% .... FELL and its similar rates.

Meanwhile following the advice of a doctor who speaks about Demon Spawn seem to be the go ....

This from Yesterday as 11 States are similar to Florida ....

Trump falsely claimed that large portions of the U.S. are "corona-free," despite a federal report that 21 states have outbreaks so severe that they are in the so-called "red zone." 28 states are in the "yellow zone," and only one state, Vermont, is in the "green zone." Trump's trade adviser, meanwhile, refused to answer what Trump meant when he said the U.S. is "getting towards corona-free" but touted hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for coronavirus even though the FDA has determined that it is "unlikely to be effective." Peter Navarro, who is not a medical professional, added: "I'm sitting on 63 million doses of hydroxychloroquine at the FEMA stockpile and that would save that's enough for 4 million Americans." Trump also defended sharing a misleading video that claimed hydroxychloroquine is a "cure" for the virus, telling reporters that "from a safety standpoint it's safe." (New York Times / Axios / ABC News / New York Times)

I wish it was NOT so.
IF you want a cure. as we all do .... Moderna and its vaccine trials is being led and conducted in a similar way by these imbeciles.

It may be a while.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 30 2020, 07:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Oh I see now ...
All is Ok in Mara Lago ...


Silly me ...
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 29 2020, 04:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yes ...
Sweden worked ... kind of ....

750,000 DEAD Americans is collateral damage in the next 50 weeks?
Sweden
They are one of the worlds best hospital systems. 100% cover ....

They are as anal as Germans about things and tolerance in society for NON compliance is zero ...
Their testing capacity is world class at 4% ... of the whole population a WEEK if needed .... much like Victoria in Australia who hit similar levels.
Contact tracing occurs on every single case. ALL OF THEM.

USA does have a few states with decent contact tracing ..... but of the 211 million really infected states .... only California has decent cover ... none or jokes in Florida and Texas .... or Arizona which is 300 times German accepted infection rates ,,,,

With Arizona ... testing barely went above 1.2% of the population .... and FELL 10% last week for the USA elections. This is hard data from source..No contact tracing and well since HHS run by a healthcare lobbyist and Jarrad Kushner took over all data 10 days ago from CDC .... there are massive anomalies which are total BS>
Texas positives fell from 15% to 10% to 5% .... then when an article called this out .... back to 10%.

Trump again today claimed a drug with 40 plus clinical trials that say its dangerous and has no effect on COVID19 ... he was claiming it does.
Masks .... in the USA refused to be worn ...
Number of states in the USA with say a contact tracing phone app ? ..... ZERO

The worst and poorest EU nation tests and contact traces at many times USA levels with infection rates much lower.
Trump is pretending its going away .... USA hospitals i n Texas and Florida and Georgia are imploding right now.
Florida for example tested more healthcare workers .... last 2 weeks which is GREAT ... but the infection rate per test went UP ,... and the overall number of tests went DOWN .... basically a forest fire raging and well .... no contact tracing ... hard to get a test .... 6 day lag in results there 8 days Texas and 12 plus in Arizona ....

USA via Trump is accepting 500,000 infections per week ... and Whilst testing 5.6 million a week sounds a lot ... its well under 2% ... and since 1% of that is likely healthcare workers nurses and ambos and aged care people .... its PATHETIC .....

Trump makes it go away ... via NOT testing .... no tests ... no cases .... USA is sending people back home to DIE in Texas right now.
This said EU Germany and Italy are willing to accept 500 cases a day ... 3,500 a week .... so thats half the size of USA ...
7,000 is what they hope for testing ... contact tracing ... USA is accepting 500,000 which likely is 700,000 today because well efforts just stopped and we are playing pretend ....

Vaccine and well ... even if they found it which sadly seems unlikely till mid 2021 .... Merck CEO and long list of others .... Trump is ordering a vaccine the Moderna one which was not well tolerated at trails causing a heart attack and sending 6 out of 45 ... to HOSPITAL.
All this to one side .... USA healthcare for most is AWFUL .....

We and I include AUSTRALIA must grow up ... which we will ... USA .... led by a moron ... A genocidal maniac ...

USA is going to have 500,000 MORE cases a week than it could or SHOULD .... and at best 50 weeks to a vaccine widespread use, if not longer ...

that's 25 million cases .... in the next 50 weeks and if it stays out of nursing homes ... which is unlikely .... USA mortality is 3% ....

USA and Trump regime is willingly going to kill 750,000 Americans in 50 weeks ?
The infections did NOT stop magically at 500 k .... they were growing at 20% a week ... just testing stopped and well ... more tests for healthcare workers and less for the peasants ...

So last Sunday ... it was 600k ... this Sundays 700k and where do they wave the white flag ? If ever ? the next 2 cycles already locked in even if they shut down ... hard lock-down. 800 k a week .... 900 k a week.
I am being kind at 500k a week .... hoping Trump and his Drug company lobbyists take note.
750,000- Americans ....

Rather than tantrums all around about fake news ...

Hard data and sources


Testing stuff
https://covidtracking.com/data
Hospitals in Texas about a week ago .... its worse ///\
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/23/...es-of-survival/
New HHS tool of beds in use ... all non essential surgery shut down .... NOTE ICU beds in Georgia and Florida and Texas the last 10% is .... well ... rubber.NO extra capacity .... NONE ... they can ship them north ... the say 40 year old converted tankers have ICU of 100 each .... or did ... likely upscale and half beds already removed for covid 19 .... but even 1,000 beds ... when Texas has 10,000 and they are GONE ...

https://protect-public.hhs.gov/datasets/hhs...bed_utilization
It is updating and clearly someone with a brain ... doing all they can to empty spare capacity in say New York ... and likely they cancel elective surgery but in a few weeks.... IMPLOSION ...

Very skeptical of the ICU overall use after watching for a week ... yes the awful states are updating ... up 10% ... ICU capacity to well over 90% which is 100% ... NO just looked.
Texas is bloody fiction ... hospitals even inside Texas stopped accepting patients from other areas and the total capacity used ICU has remind at 81% ish.
Jarrod Kushner and Dr Birx and Alex Azar the head of HHS and Drug lobbyist ...
Some states really try ...
California but ... flat tack .... 2% testing with contact tracing ....

Others well Texas numbers ... are needing an audit is what I would say.
I only have 30 plus years of doing this sort of data stuff ...

Never seen a nation send 750,000 people to their death.
USA has the capacity to lock down to stop this totally out of control virus right now ... Arizona at 300 times Germany and testing LESS ...
The poorest EU nation makes USA look stupid let alone say Vietnam .... WHO has contact tracing.
I am ashamed that Australia has anything to do with these people. It was awful when Yemen and 100,000 being killed heir by USA ACTIONS each year ... Trump called out for selling the Saudis cluster bombs and enforcing a blockade ... Trump went its about USA jobs and arms sales 15 billion ...
USA sadly and its billionaire liberal fascist leaders is I regret sending 750,000- Americans in the next 50 weeks to their needless death.
USA has the capacity to test more. Contact trace, and nothing short of a lock down will stop an infection rate 300 times Germany .... masks are not even allowed.

My least favorite state in the USA and I love yanks overall ... but ... sending 750,000- to their death and 4 times that will emerge from Hospital with life long injuries to Heart or Lungs and that is Scientific not an opinion..
The head of Merck and I leave with this link .... on the eve as USA kills 750,000 own people. One of the largest drug makers globally and his views about when to expect a vaccine.
COVID-19 vaccines under development are not guaranteed to work and people who say to expect a vaccine before year-end are doing a "grave disservice to the public," says pharma giant Merck & Co's chief executive.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/merck-ceo-says-raising-covid-19-vaccine-hopes-a-grave-disservice-20200715-p55c3r.html
I do not pretend to do science, I follow ... I do however do data ... treads and at world class levels. They do not make a spastic the head of trading or any institution.

Take what you will ... is it a good result 750,000 dead Americans over what should have been ? I mourn and cry for their souls and leaders and this includes most of the twat billionaires and that one spent 1 billion to deny getting taxed above 1% and no universal medicare with Gates and Bufffet and Bezos and the gang cheering Bloomberg on ...
I have no jealousy of their money, other than the tax theft they did here ... Australia ... but are they human ?

750,000 DEAD is collateral damage ? Oh and sending kids back to School in the USA ... 40 million of them ... CDC has been claiming they are not a risk ...
https://www.sciencealert.com/older-children...idence-suggests
About 20 Scientific studies ... all of them outside the CDC ... show near identical results.
If they send them back ... to school at infection rates of 300 times Germany ... well ...

Please Australia ... eject the American Ambassador ... or ask him to please explain in public this genocide.
750,000 ... its only 15,000 a week ... says Jarrod ... No one will notice.

750,000 HUMANS and likely a lot higher if you send the kids back ... whilst their mortality rate is low ... read the science.
My name is

Mark Kahuna ... and I am ashamed for them ... grieve for them and wish it was NOT so.

I would like to thank the study that USA was rated number 1 globally to handle a pandemic in 2019 .... BY ... Mr Bloomberg Gates and Buffet funding the study.

I am sick 750,000 DEAD is collateral damage ?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 28 2020, 06:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

AUSTIN, Texas A man was shot and killed at a Black Lives Matter protest in Austin, Texas. The suspect drove through the crowd of protesters before shooting the victim with a rifle. The shooter was released by police "pending further investigation." (BuzzFeed News)

Trump said he would deploy as many as 75,000 federal agents into U.S. cities as part of his "surge" against "violent crime." Trump told Fox News that he would would dispatch "50,000, 60,000 people" into American cities, but eventually upped the number to 75,000. "We'll go into all of the cities, any of the cities. We're ready," he said. Trump first said the federal government would "have to be invited in," but added suggested that a lack of invitation wouldn't prevent him from deploying federal agents. "At some point we'll have to do something much stronger than being invited in," he said. Meanwhile, the Trump administration deployed a Special Response Team, comprised of an unspecified number of Customs and Border Patrol agents, to Seattle to protect federal property. (CNN / New York Times / Seattle Times)

Old but funny
Trump spent Mother's Day sending 126 tweets, retweets, and quote-tweets about the Russia investigations by the FBI and the House Intelligence Committee. Falling just 16 short of the single-day posting record he set during his impeachment trial in January, Trump spent much of his holiday bouncing between wishing everyone a "HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY" to railing against Obama, "60 Minutes," Jimmy Kimmel, and Chuck Todd. The U.S. coronavirus death toll, meanwhile, crossed 80,000. (Axios / Vox / The Guardian / Washington Post)



He did hit a peak tweeting total .... of over 200 in a day ... none about covid19 ..It will go away !!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 28 2020, 12:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Well ...

No reaction to Trumps drug ploy ... not sure if the media will even cover it as one of their main advertising revenues in the USA is drug companies.
The relief package and it dominates.

Vaccine ... well early stage ... not expecting it to have a result on say antibodies is under 1%.
A vaccine ever ? 80 strains ... CEO of Merck at 4 years .... Pfizer end of 2021 maybe .... Trump ordering things as though they exist ?
That there is a massive issue of the post 60 day antibody is yet to be resolved .... let alone will it work on 80 types there are now .... even basic questions like can we get it again ?

I would love to dream one shot vaccine and poof its gone.Sadly science is pointing as we learn more .... a longer road. Even monkeys deliberately infected after 29 days have some immunity BUT ... their temp spikes which is the key question with this thing. Time .... and lets try again at day 99 .... when the antibodies in humans are basically gone and see what occurs ?
I am scared to wonder on this.

In the end maybe we get a penicillin type thing for a virus say in 5 years.

Meantime ... we must change .... or deny it. USA only got down to 150k a week .... EU target for USA size is 12.5 k a week.
At that level and say 3% ... mortality rate if they keep it out of elderly its 200,000 MORE dead people.

USA is not at 150k a week .... its at 500k a week and effectively testing just stopped. IN this I mean already at a pathetic half of EU levels and HALF of ours with Victoria ..... and infection rates 10 times even Victoria for 200 mio in those states .... NO contact tracing .... actually dropping testing of the public .... yep they increased testing of the healthcare workers ... which is great ...
But ... well ... its going to be around. No shutdown .... contact tracing for half of USA and this really infected 200 mio only exists in California ... and at 12 months and 500k a pop that's 26 million infected ... 3% or MORE mortality rate as USA healthcare for the average person is not even close to EU or ours ... thats 780,000 Mr Trump is deciding.

That of course under the fantasy that this Virus does not increase if you dont test.
Contact trace ... and well even masks is too much to ask.
Since Victoria went from say 5 to 5,000 cases and a meal with say 2 infected people at a Thai place is now 70 .... science and even common sense out the window.
P,S USA hospital system is collapsing .... dont tell anyone ... it may upset Trump ... ICU at 90% or more in 8 states .... and this is with every elective surgery cancelled and including all assets.

If they test .... well ... they will one day ... but if they did ... the reported infected remained flat last week as did number of tests .... sadly its the same virus Mr President and well if your wondering if they swapped body fluids at the Thai place ... suggest you look at Nashville on Saturday night with no masks ... no restrictions and well minimum via live camera and its got a look back slow lapse ... oh a mere 10,000 on the pavements not a mask in sight.
There is something worse coming ... whilst they sleep .... Victoria with a rate of infection that's less than 10% of USA ... we tested 4% of people and contact traced all of them .... Bravo for the workers and well idiots ... need to learn. USA worst state and there are many ... Arizona well it tested LESS last week and barely 1.2% with 22.6% positives and NO contact tracing .... bars open and restaurants at 50% .... masks less than 25% ....

Hmm.... is eating spicy food why it spread so far here ? Or is USA in another Universe ?
Will say in a week ... or two ... or three ... it dawn on them ? I doubt it ... takes 12 days to get a test back in Arizona .... and well ... to get even a test is since Mr Trump cut federal funding ... its hard.

I wish I had something wrong with this picture but either USA is in another universe and I am still dreaming ... things like their hospital system have less than 3 weeks till implosion even if they ship them north.
Oh in case your wondering ....
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/23/...es-of-survival/

Did any of this make the nightly news in USA ? The one that gets about half its revenue from Drug company adds ? Or the next link which is sad sad sad ...


Trump better call an early election with his devoted followers leading the charge for no masks ... or its the flu.

Then again ... if Postal voting is allowed ... COVID19 itself ... the virus ... will send in 50 million votes for Trump .... one for each infected person !!

Its amusing that Mr Azar a drug company lobbyist is now leading things in the USA at Health and Human Services

then again a coal industry lobbyist for the EPA and on and on and ON it goes.
This one is sad ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-c...s-idUSKCN24H3HK
Whilst for now its not into nursing homes .... well at 10 times the rate of infection of Victoria and NO contact tracing testing at 33% ... good luck Mr President. Deny deny deny

Hmm New York was not a good thing .in April and May ... New Jersey less so We apes must learn ... did he pass that test yet ?

More lessons ? will they even care the leaders ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 26 2020, 12:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hahah dribble ...
The accounts they just release for years end are just that, dribble.
Minus 9 million and a black hole ... no break even point in sight.
Then again must be nice, they have a share subscription underway .... so they can fund more of those management fees to the needy ?

Not sure with this frog even of they increases sales 10 fold , which has not occurred despite ... DRIVEL about it ... one has no idea when they even break even, if ever.
I prefer to have an idea as to if they have a product that has a profit margin. Selling a product that costs $1,000 per unit to make for $100- is amusing.
Value of product and company is impossible to asses.

A black hole .... relevant ? Or dribble ? Accounts out last few days and well ... its being going on for years, fantasy after fantasy .... blah blah blah


  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 25 2020, 03:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hilarious and sad ...

Trump just threw the whole healthcare industry UNDER A BUS
.Not just drug companies ... Insurers ... Hospitals ...Bernie Sanders communist plan to give healthcare at a decent cost ... Warren the same ... but well bugger me
Trump is allowing legal overseas import of drugs that USA people pay, say for Insulin 40 times the rest of the world .. Canada right next door and 100 times for many things like the AIDS prep drug that prevents you catching it. Does it mean that awful Gilead Drug that does not work ... was developed on public funds costs $100 a course to make ... NO costs to recoup as the govt paid for all of that even the dubious testing. This Remdesivor ... sells for $200- a course in India can they import it into the USA where its being charged at $2.300 if you have insurance $3,100- of you dont and the USA goverment paid $2,400 per course for 500,000- courses of a drug that does not work ... destroys your liver and kidneys and mortality is unchanged.

Of course .... likely when we read the fine print due to anti gay religious base ... and Mike Pence the VP is a rooting tooting one ... anti gay anti abortion anti science .... leads the covid 19 task force yet ... well the world was created in 7 days.

Great news for many Americans .... stolen from the communist Bernie Sanders playbook ... that's what they call him there and he just wanted what we enjoy.
This is a link to Trumps .... media conference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM0k8AliGuA...WL&index=31

at the 1 hour 3 min .... if you look at the crowd ... about half masks ... one dummy keeps shaking hands ... but at the end. Trump surrounded inches away from 9 or more non mask wearing women.

This is Florida .... its COVID 19 infection rate is 200 times say Germany and Italy ....

I suggest again Trump goes to Arizona where its 300 times and pres the flesh ...

I give credit for this one. Biden would NEVER ever have done this. Sanders and Warrren well they had a cretin spend a billion dollars to ensure this did not occur. Bloomberg ... Mr Personality for a billion dollars did not even get a T shirt. He did however not get a tax increase, but he had many goals on behalf of the corporate side of the USA and it was to ... god forbid ... cheaper medical costs ? They pay 3 times as much for a system that is 66% ... as effective.

Its third world ...
Science does not exist as one can see in living color .... Go MR Trump ... play gold MORE in Florida. Arizona needs you.

Given the USA market has been expecting more handouts for the top end, well ... and ignoring any and all bad news. This being able to order drugs from countries who dont allow patents to be extended forever and Insulin patent was given away 100 years ago ... but sells for insane amounts in the USA.
Well ... will the USA market open up or down ? How far ? What has happened to say medical insurers in the USA now that instead of making plans that the customer pays the first $3,000 as an Excess then $1,500 or half of the drugs ... whoops. ...

I am not sure what to rejoice over more. The long term impacts on the medical side in the USA ... the extortion for your life ... or the fact its done, Biden cant possibly reverse this order. He can try .... but, for what reason ? Due to political donations ?

No the winner is Trump ... and his lack of mask and lack of social distancing.

Sadly USA is getting worse, but unlikely to report it due to the elections. Grim ... but its already occurring. Hospitals in Georgia and a few other states ... imploding. When or where the media will report on this is another matter.


Yipeee is all I can say
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 23 2020, 06:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Putting other things aside ...

Debating about ordering the star ship ... or time machine .... since Trump can.
Can we get reinfected ? Unknown on most of the below .... but this one .... leaning towards YES .... scientifically for next question ...
Can we actually easily get a vaccine and this antibody issue where it evaporates at 90 days ? ..... Unknown but serious issues clearly in over 20 sceintific papers.

Can we get it soon ? one that's tolerated and works .... again unknown but sadly leaning to longer for a myriad of issues. There are so far 80 different strains and again, unknown in the extreme is if a vaccine comes out whether it works and if it ... mutates as it will .... so far slowly where it goes.
I wish as all for a safe vaccine and future.

On issues in the meantime ... debate over eradication which being an Island nation is likely possible or control.Control ... WE clearly have an issue for now.
To control .... lock-downs .... social distancing .... masks work if unilateral .... contact tracing essential and is testing ... uniform messaging and clear leadership on these issues.

We have them. IF dopes will not wear masks or social distance, lock them up. USA has ...
NO contact tracing .... its testing at the same rate FINALLY we are ... but its actual infections are 10 times ours.
Without this, without clear social distancing they are stuffed.
Spread vectors and people without symptoms.

Scientifically its about 2-3 times MORE overall infected than present with actual symptoms. NOT larger .... but not smaller.Gave just one link on the kids paper ...

Kids more likely to get it without symptoms showing.

In the USA the CDC ... the ones who could not even get a test till April .... suggested via pseudo science that asymptomatic people may be up to 24 times the actual tested and infected. In other words .... some states 50% or more have already had it ? Trump touted this at today's press meeting along with 20 other fables.
Idiotic ... in short the testing was via a viral test that gave FALSE positives many times and the methodology was absurd. If you say suspect you had it and could not get tested .... and offered to be tested to see if you had .... you would be curious. Getting a test i n the USA was and is nearly impossible even now. Trump for the election seems to have slowed the testing despite the surge.

As such ... the sample group not only had issues with the test going for up to 10% yes you had it ... when it was not the case ... you had it the people actually turning up were heavily and if not already absurdly overweight. If say the community as a whole reported say 1% .... overall infections and you tested not 10,000 people totally randomly but offered it .... a lot who say lost sense of taste or other common things would turn up. Just checked and maximum size of the already faulty group was 1,200 people so one might expect, 1% of that .... who would be 12 to show symptoms and get tested, but using this as a representation as a sample ... representation of a much wider community of say 120,000 people to make your case and you got 50 people who curious if they did have it .... turning up ... as they clearly did ... it just buggers the results.

Sample size was too small ... 1% ... NOT random ... and added to that faulty antibody tests .... of course ... junk in ... junk comes out.
USA is not mandating masks and even when they do ... not enforcing it. In fact Georgia gov is suing Atlanta Mayor for this and shutting down. Some like Tennessee are ignoring it ... . Louisiana with New Orleans smashed early ... the bloody Governor right now is having a 3 day prayer session and fasting.
We are not them. We can learn ... and social distancing breaches not to be tolerated. Masks ... as annoying as they seem .... its life.I watched as a doctor connected to a machine that measured your pulse oxygen level .... put on one mask and it did not change ...then he put another over the top ... then a total of 6 masks and his bloody oxygen level DID NOT CHANGE.


I not the Victorian governments fines for no masks and applaud that till we deal with this.I note there was an exception for medical reasons for not wearing a mask ... is that condition stupidity ?
His part ? or the person meant to be wearing it ?
I have no answers other than this may be some time till we have a vaccine.Hopefully not to many anti vaccine idiots as there seem to be in the USA.
We as a nation on the main doing the right thing. Forget the debate about ... can we eradicate it or control it. We have right now a problem. Stop the spread.

USA ... well ... stop testing ... kids back to schools .... no masks ... open bars even when rules supposedly exist.
they went from 150,000 cases a week to 450,000 a week and was, well expecting action ... passed 500,000- and to slow it ... lets slow testing ?
At those infection rates .... masks ineffective for say 5 cycles of 10 days.Current actions or inaction assure ... a few cycles of increases ... but ... well if you stop testing or make it absurd and impossible as previously mentioned, things .... explode.

Its not worked in any nation pretending it would go away. Despite what seems clear slowing of testing ... in some states for the USA election .... underlying this its been spreading at 20% a week. This will slow ... unless they are that stupid as to send 30 million kids back to school.

If you dont get a test .... many dont have medical cover and .... well ... I am glad to report Arizona ordered 14 mobile refrigerated morgues .... Georgia ordered more and Florida and Texas the rest.

Its going to be a sad 100 or so days to USA election time as pretending to do the right thing ... is mixed with go back to work ... go back to school ... it will go away ... its safe for those under 80 ....

We in Australia on the main, brilliant. Until this monster is tamed, we learn ... we adapt and move on.
Masks ... for all ... sadly an option. Since I am not pretty any longer, its an enhancement.

Take care
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 23 2020, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

This covers most of why I am concerned ....
did post it on the Covid thread.

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
From la a land ...
two vaccine trials Oxford one and Moderna ...both hailed as great success.
One sent 13.33% to hospital .... one did not. One was 24 times the size of the other ...One had one single severe reaction .... not needing hospital, for the Oxford trial of 1,077 people .... Moderna trial of 45 people ..... had 6 extreme fails ... some with multiple issues including a hear attack

A vaccine ... needs to be safe with mild or moderate reactions and one .... had a 50 year old man screaming and in tears due to muscle pain called a mere moderate reaction !! One ... had a 29 year old marathon runner with a temperature that almost got to melting organs ... and fainting ... also unable to use his arm after the second injection. NOT BS ...
Read the results ... and the 29 year old spoke at length to the media and described his reaction as the sickest he has ever been .... EVER. Link below, not some conspiracy theory ... factual ... he is on CNN being interviewed mid May

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna...evere-reaction/

Moderna ... if one ignored the heart attack guy ... had 140 times more serve reactions than the other.Moderna backed by Trump .... praised by the USA media ...

Moderna actually removed HALF of the extreme reactions from its results .... only 42 of 45 in their .... well trial ... got the second injection. Heaven help them testing on elderly and people who unlike the very fit 18-55 people both trials ... used .... they will be trying it on the people less like marathon runners. Oh by the way ... the mouthy fan who nearly dies was PAID of course for his efforts.

Both are progressing to next stage testing on 30,000 .... I would take one ... if it works which is unknown for about 6 months even then it will need to likely be challenge tested ... that being a person and group actually deliberately infected to see if it works or sending it to a high infection area.
My suggestion would be Arizona ... at 300 times the rate of Germany ... or Florida at 200 times. Good third world nations for a trial.

Meanwhile ...Whilst both as one would expect produced immune responses ... as they were bloody tested on primates PRIOR to this to see if they worked and they share 98% of our DNA ...
A person ... who appears to share more than 98% of primate DNA ... seems almost an Orangutan due to his coloring and from planet of the apes since he can speak ... well kind of.

President Trump owner of the virus announced overnight in a media circus that he was ordering 500 million doses of the vaccine from two other companies.Pfizer is doing a trial ... much like the Oxford results had a well tolerated early stage test. The other company much like Moderna has never ever produced a drug or vaccine. Moderna in about 10 years .... but this one ... awarded an order for a billion or so .... in 33 years .... yes 33 years .... has ever made any successful drug.
NEVER ...

So either one of US has lost their mind.

Oxford vaccine ... their results were released with caution ... ones 200 times better than Moderna in terms of tolerance and urged caution and a likely 6-12 months more of sceintific trials and of course hopes. Positive but realistic ....
Trump ... whilst eating his favorite banana seems to have yet again awarded ... a bucket of money making it appear a vaccine is already here ? Or close.If anything the positive of Oxford and the total fail of Moderna ... in the USA media wise ... Oxford which is safe .... and used science verses ... media releases for its findings ... is far preferred. One hopes ...

Massive amounts of more testing needed on any of the 6 valid vaccines ahead. Moderna's is well ... a joke .... that they are proceeding ... is alarming but only time will tell. A vaccine given to unhealthy or less able to deal with things like heart attacks or uncontrolled voiding of your bowels or fainting and also likely to have even more extreme reactions .... even at what is a mid range dose, again .... I have never seen a company with a straight face go to next stage testing on this data. Then again ... Gilleads Drug Remdesivor did so ... was wheeled out and DOES NOT WORK. It may or may not reduce time in hospital but clearly already found not to change mortality rates whilst often destroying both kidneys and liver, to possibly .... maybe as the deputy Chief MD of Australia put it .... shorten hospital stays by maybe 2 days ?


As to ordering a non existent vaccine as though it works ?

Yippee ....

The same day as Oxfords results which were encouraging as to tolerated with minimum side effects, the underlying issue is .... will a vaccine work .... if so how long does it work and sadly, the Sino vaccine not just tested on the under 55's but also over ... noted a much less pronounced antibody result which added to 20 plus scientific paper son the topic about immune response disappearing after 60 days even in severe cases and gone by 90 ...
Sadly ... we have some time for a SAFE .... effective vaccine.It will take time.

Lots of key questions to answer for real scientists.Lots of pure baloney ... and self interest out of movie primates.Tolerated with close to zero reactions.That it spurs an immune response and one that lasts ... and works for all

I am amazed, alarmed and astounded by the USA in so so many ways. The company awarded the vaccine contract, and yes I know ... we do want to be prepared to get it out quick ... but ... really ? seriously .... two companies .... with NO record ever of a drug or vaccine ? On the internal stuff the executives awarded themselves I believe 100 million in options which they get at the end of a stage 2 trial. Market cap of this frog went from 250 million to 5 billion so up 20 fold. Connections to Trump family and friends is unknown ... but well .... you know the drill.
With the utmost and deep respect for the real science community and our own ... Deputy chief MD of oz and he is no fool .... regarding the magic Remdeisvor ... clearly he has his doubts .... extreme ones.

I suspect with great confidence if the goverment was to fund me for 100 mio as the USA is ... I could easily hire decent experts to create a vaccine on the inactivated style that did produce at least on the surface an antibody response and was well tolerated. Where the art ... and brilliance of the REAL science community is, as one said .... is creating a bloody vaccine that works. It may appear it gets a response ... an inactivated virus .... in stage 1/2 trials. ... but that I suspect despite unlimited funding ... would have 1% chance of eventually working verses the brilliant minds, on the main working for an end to this mess.

This ... is highlighted by the Malaria drug ... which did not work in the two studies early on Covid 19 ... yet via Trump ... 200 plus studies resulted, the sceintific community spent billions ... AGAIN .. to find a drug already that did work ... did not work time and time and time again.
I do wonder where they, as in the Orange man is taking the world.

Unknown a lot of these questions other than the obvious ...
Must run and sign up for Moderna's bleach vaccine trials !!


It could work .... then again .... a vaccine for 6 billion people that works at 50% for 90 days and well ... produces extreme reactions sending 13.33% of healthy people to hospital .... let me see. I am ordering right now my own spaceship ... yet to be invented ... goes warp 9.9999 !!!

Yipee .... I am sure sending kids back to school is a good thing as Trump said he will send his own and grand-kids.That he cant read, amusing ....
https://www.sciencealert.com/older-children...idence-suggests
The above is just one of 20 such studies. Kids GET covid 19 and actually spread it. Since they are less likely to show signs .... be asymptomatic ... I think it will work out well sending 35 million American schoolkids back school.
That and NO contact tracing .... NONE in most states currently in flareup.Testing in the USA ... virtually impossible to get ... despite alarming rises in numbers. All for the election ...

I have been sighing over these issues for days. On one hand reported covid cases hit 500,000- last week.Deaths lag by 22 days .... and the rise your seeing now is from when cases were say 250,000 a week.

Current numbers they were reporting .... or under reporting in the extreme for many states, were at 2.55% .... if it goes into older nursing homes as it did early on .... well ... double triple it. But right now, in 3 weeks ... for last week ... a mere 2.55% ... 12,750 death a week.
Likely peaks up near the old highs, around 2,000. This is science and math.
That say New York and New Jersey sent people who tested positive COvid 19 back to nursing homes without telling them, the homes they were positive at the beginning ... astounding that Governor Cumo held a press conference claiming what a great job he did. I think 10% of all residents passed. New Jersey it was 12% ...

Perspective ... if Florida added 300,000 cases ... double that likely asymptomatic not showing signs but walking g around so 600,000 highly infectious people well over 1% of the population, and no mandate on masks ... Disney is even open .... and testing is well ... near impossible as people turn up at 8 am and its booked out. SOLID ... whilst yes testing is going on, at similar levels, what are the chances of say it not getting into nursing homes ?
I note via cameras bars ... shut ... then reopens ... serving nibbles to skirt the rules. Some already serving food called themselves restaurants. Masks ? Protest in Miami and well some wear them ... but 75% dont and when you have over 1% walking around infected .... gee.
I am sure Trumps plan will work,

Don't test ... no cases. Or limit testing ... then its out to 8 days for your results .... some places 12 .... if your willing to line up from 4 am .
Hospitals ... would take another long post ... but this wave ... is not the mere 56 million USA got hit with early ... its the West ... and South West ... 211 million in those states. California who is ... trying ... but Texas .... Florida Georgia ,,,,, Arizona hell on earth ... 11 States.

I do love yanks .... and cry for them right now.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 23 2020, 03:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

From la a land ...

two vaccine trials Oxford one and Moderna ...both hailed as great success.
One sent 13.33% to hospital .... one did not. One was 24 times the size of the other ...One had one single severe reaction .... not needing hospital, for the Oxford trial of 1,077 people .... Moderna trial of 45 people ..... had 6 extreme fails ... some with multiple issues including a hear attack

A vaccine ... needs to be safe with mild or moderate reactions and one .... had a 50 year old man screaming and in tears due to muscle pain called a mere moderate reaction !! One ... had a 29 year old marathon runner with a temperature that almost got to melting organs ... and fainting ... also unable to use his arm after the second injection. NOT BS ...
Read the results ... and the 29 year old spoke at length to the media and described his reaction as the sickest he has ever been .... EVER. Link below, not some conspiracy theory ... factual ... he is on CNN being interviewed mid May

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna...evere-reaction/

Moderna ... if one ignored the heart attack guy ... had 140 times more serve reactions than the other.Moderna backed by Trump .... praised by the USA media ...

Moderna actually removed HALF of the extreme reactions from its results .... only 42 of 45 in their .... well trial ... got the second injection. Heaven help them testing on elderly and people who unlike the very fit 18-55 people both trials ... used .... they will be trying it on the people less like marathon runners. Oh by the way ... the mouthy fan who nearly dies was PAID of course for his efforts.

Both are progressing to next stage testing on 30,000 .... I would take one ... if it works which is unknown for about 6 months even then it will need to likely be challenge tested ... that being a person and group actually deliberately infected to see if it works or sending it to a high infection area.
My suggestion would be Arizona ... at 300 times the rate of Germany ... or Florida at 200 times. Good third world nations for a trial.

Meanwhile ...Whilst both as one would expect produced immune responses ... as they were bloody tested on primates PRIOR to this to see if they worked and they share 98% of our DNA ...
A person ... who appears to share more than 98% of primate DNA ... seems almost an Orangutan due to his coloring and from planet of the apes since he can speak ... well kind of.

President Trump owner of the virus announced overnight in a media circus that he was ordering 500 million doses of the vaccine from two other companies.Pfizer is doing a trial ... much like the Oxford results had a well tolerated early stage test. The other company much like Moderna has never ever produced a drug or vaccine. Moderna in about 10 years .... but this one ... awarded an order for a billion or so .... in 33 years .... yes 33 years .... has ever made any successful drug.
NEVER ...

So either one of US has lost their mind.

Oxford vaccine ... their results were released with caution ... ones 200 times better than Moderna in terms of tolerance and urged caution and a likely 6-12 months more of sceintific trials and of course hopes. Positive but realistic ....
Trump ... whilst eating his favorite banana seems to have yet again awarded ... a bucket of money making it appear a vaccine is already here ? Or close.If anything the positive of Oxford and the total fail of Moderna ... in the USA media wise ... Oxford which is safe .... and used science verses ... media releases for its findings ... is far preferred. One hopes ...

Massive amounts of more testing needed on any of the 6 valid vaccines ahead. Moderna's is well ... a joke .... that they are proceeding ... is alarming but only time will tell. A vaccine given to unhealthy or less able to deal with things like heart attacks or uncontrolled voiding of your bowels or fainting and also likely to have even more extreme reactions .... even at what is a mid range dose, again .... I have never seen a company with a straight face go to next stage testing on this data. Then again ... Gilleads Drug Remdesivor did so ... was wheeled out and DOES NOT WORK. It may or may not reduce time in hospital but clearly already found not to change mortality rates whilst often destroying both kidneys and liver, to possibly .... maybe as the deputy Chief MD of Australia put it .... shorten hospital stays by maybe 2 days ?


As to ordering a non existent vaccine as though it works ?

Yippee ....

The same day as Oxfords results which were encouraging as to tolerated with minimum side effects, the underlying issue is .... will a vaccine work .... if so how long does it work and sadly, the Sino vaccine not just tested on the under 55's but also over ... noted a much less pronounced antibody result which added to 20 plus scientific paper son the topic about immune response disappearing after 60 days even in severe cases and gone by 90 ...
Sadly ... we have some time for a SAFE .... effective vaccine.It will take time.

Lots of key questions to answer for real scientists.Lots of pure baloney ... and self interest out of movie primates.Tolerated with close to zero reactions.That it spurs an immune response and one that lasts ... and works for all

I am amazed, alarmed and astounded by the USA in so so many ways. The company awarded the vaccine contract, and yes I know ... we do want to be prepared to get it out quick ... but ... really ? seriously .... two companies .... with NO record ever of a drug or vaccine ? On the internal stuff the executives awarded themselves I believe 100 million in options which they get at the end of a stage 2 trial. Market cap of this frog went from 250 million to 5 billion so up 20 fold. Connections to Trump family and friends is unknown ... but well .... you know the drill.
With the utmost and deep respect for the real science community and our own ... Deputy chief MD of oz and he is no fool .... regarding the magic Remdeisvor ... clearly he has his doubts .... extreme ones.

I suspect with great confidence if the goverment was to fund me for 100 mio as the USA is ... I could easily hire decent experts to create a vaccine on the inactivated style that did produce at least on the surface an antibody response and was well tolerated. Where the art ... and brilliance of the REAL science community is, as one said .... is creating a bloody vaccine that works. It may appear it gets a response ... an inactivated virus .... in stage 1/2 trials. ... but that I suspect despite unlimited funding ... would have 1% chance of eventually working verses the brilliant minds, on the main working for an end to this mess.

This ... is highlighted by the Malaria drug ... which did not work in the two studies early on Covid 19 ... yet via Trump ... 200 plus studies resulted, the sceintific community spent billions ... AGAIN .. to find a drug already that did work ... did not work time and time and time again.
I do wonder where they, as in the Orange man is taking the world.

Unknown a lot of these questions other than the obvious ...
Must run and sign up for Moderna's bleach vaccine trials !!


It could work .... then again .... a vaccine for 6 billion people that works at 50% for 90 days and well ... produces extreme reactions sending 13.33% of healthy people to hospital .... let me see. I am ordering right now my own spaceship ... yet to be invented ... goes warp 9.9999 !!!

Yipee .... I am sure sending kids back to school is a good thing as Trump said he will send his own and grand-kids.That he cant read, amusing ....
https://www.sciencealert.com/older-children...idence-suggests
The above is just one of 20 such studies. Kids GET covid 19 and actually spread it. Since they are less likely to show signs .... be asymptomatic ... I think it will work out well sending 35 million American schoolkids back school.
That and NO contact tracing .... NONE in most states currently in flareup.Testing in the USA ... virtually impossible to get ... despite alarming rises in numbers. All for the election ...

I have been sighing over these issues for days. On one hand reported covid cases hit 500,000- last week.Deaths lag by 22 days .... and the rise your seeing now is from when cases were say 250,000 a week.

Current numbers they were reporting .... or under reporting in the extreme for many states, were at 2.55% .... if it goes into older nursing homes as it did early on .... well ... double triple it. But right now, in 3 weeks ... for last week ... a mere 2.55% ... 12,750 death a week.
Likely peaks up near the old highs, around 2,000. This is science and math.
That say New York and New Jersey sent people who tested positive COvid 19 back to nursing homes without telling them, the homes they were positive at the beginning ... astounding that Governor Cumo held a press conference claiming what a great job he did. I think 10% of all residents passed. New Jersey it was 12% ...

Perspective ... if Florida added 300,000 cases ... double that likely asymptomatic not showing signs but walking g around so 600,000 highly infectious people well over 1% of the population, and no mandate on masks ... Disney is even open .... and testing is well ... near impossible as people turn up at 8 am and its booked out. SOLID ... whilst yes testing is going on, at similar levels, what are the chances of say it not getting into nursing homes ?
I note via cameras bars ... shut ... then reopens ... serving nibbles to skirt the rules. Some already serving food called themselves restaurants. Masks ? Protest in Miami and well some wear them ... but 75% dont and when you have over 1% walking around infected .... gee.
I am sure Trumps plan will work,

Don't test ... no cases. Or limit testing ... then its out to 8 days for your results .... some places 12 .... if your willing to line up from 4 am .
Hospitals ... would take another long post ... but this wave ... is not the mere 56 million USA got hit with early ... its the West ... and South West ... 211 million in those states. California who is ... trying ... but Texas .... Florida Georgia ,,,,, Arizona hell on earth ... 11 States.

I do love yanks .... and cry for them right now.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 21 2020, 03:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Meanwhile in La la land ...

It will go away ?

The Trump administration is trying to block funding for coronavirus testing and contact tracing, the CDC and the National Institutes of Health in the upcoming coronavirus relief package.
(Washington Post / New York Times / ABC News / CNN)

Since Florida is around 25 million added 250,000 new cases in 4 weeks .... that's what Trump meant by it will go away on Fox news Yesterday ?

Not sure how Australia would react with 300,000 new cases adjusted for size and this sort of effort from leaders. USA in Florida a new third world nation outside Mar a Lago resort Trumps official residence .... contact tracing is NOT done at all in Florida. This is just the total so far rising at 10,000 a day.

Trump likes playing golf there ... I suggest every day Mr President.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 21 2020, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

QUOTE
Eden USs CEO and its executive director travelling to Florida

Pity it was not the twits in Adelaide.Florida and Trumps home address is only seeing infection rates 200 times the current ones of Germany and Italy.
So so sad the Australian Solomon could not join Trump in Florida and press the flesh. Then Arizona with 250 times EU infection rates.
Of course it will go away Trump said yesterday.

Having looked at this company many times over the years, that its still around ... amazes me.

12 zillion shares or have they consolidated them ?
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 05:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

No perfecto ...

Seen the whole lot of efforts.I thought, it would take a few months much like swine flu, but NOPE.
A few links

One of the studies found that 10 percent of nearly 1,500 COVID-positive patients registered undetectable antibody levels within weeks of first showing symptoms, while the other of 74 patients found they typically lost their antibodies two to three months after recovering from the infection, especially among those who tested positive but were asymptomatic.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/...ntibodies-67650

wacko.gif

Modenra rubbish ... ignoring how awful tolerated it is .... this vaccine, is Who knows.there are 15 papers about this drop off ... beyond day 60 of antibodies.

Does this mean your immune still ? Or not ? Or does any vaccine work for any length of time ?
Do we get akin to a flu shot even the other strain we get Covid 19 but not full blown ?

We dont know. It does actually have DIRE and very serious implications when you have 15 sceintific papers now and more arriving in the 50 plus submitted every day .... some are on this type of stuff.

Until one gets infected or god forbid deliberately infected and it being a human not a monkey, a human .... and then a lot of humans we will not know if a vaccine works, will work or ever work. AIDS they can control the virus load ... we have say PREP to prevent it but no vaccine. A magical time for COVID19 awaits. Its more complex than even a nightmare with you least favorite actor or personality dropping in.

I dont know or pretend to. Nor do the scientists, for now, unless your trying to sell say a drug that costs $100- a 5 day course to make and then sell it for $2.300- USD or $4,000 AUD .... that maybe ... possibly ... it could work. Sadly I suspect with very good data on a lot of trials the actual mortality rate went UP ... not down ... given average age of infection was falling when this bleach was used in the USA and now here. Could be wrong, but that was the anti viral.

Amusingly its under review, Gilead's Remdesivor even by the FDA and has awful results if your taking Trumps malaria drug, they become toxic if you can read the FDA notes. I think the Indians found out the hard way. No one told them. Since I mistakenly put the link in.

Still mulling on the rest and its bleak, complex but .... relevant. To shares ... to investments ... to well humans when the leaders of the free world are leading into black holes.
Back in coming days.

The end part is the crunch. Possibly overnight the bad dream stops.

Thanks
Mark
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 02:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sigh ... weirdsmiley.gif
Markets aside .... other than observing cash at zero forever skew valuations.Slashing tax rates boosts NPAT ... when they have no tax now ... 4 massive actions on slashing tax in the USA ...Another coming and cutting capital gains tax for the ultra rich helps the pandemic how ?I sigh ....I build models .... computer ones ... economic ones.

Pandemic and vaccines ....
going nowhere. Some great evidence on antibodies evaporating between day 60 and 90. Its new ....
Moderna making a new vaccine on a very risky type. Basically engineered ... not tested and outcomes diabolical.In 30 plus years the stuff Trump is pushing to make it go away ... via magic and a trial where a guy has a heart attack so is removed.A 50 year old fit guy has pain so bad ... muscle pain as a result of vaccine he is crying ? ph34r.gif Worst ,,, a fit 29 year old .... marathon runner ... second injection his temp spikes ... he faints ... emergency room ...


Clinical trial ... to test safety and tolerance and work out correct dose. Not whether it works ...
I kid you not, this is NOT a science fiction conspiracy theory, IT occurred. Its well documented and the patient was in the media and in fact three were.
Here is one of them the 29 year old. https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna...evere-reaction/


He gave a whole series of interviews on various sites CNN and the 29 year marathon runner not being able to use his arm ? Let alone an extreme temp spike. I am sure a 60 year old diabetes person with immune issues will tolerate this bleach well !!


For a vaccine to be given to all ... some will be fit some will not ... most will fall way below this 45 they tested .... 42 only made it to the end as 3 were removed and they called this well tolerated ? They plan to proceed to clinical stage 3 and 30,000 .... at the dose that saw 100% either mild or moderate reactions which the man screaming in tears was moderate ... extreme includes death in these trial jargon. Only 3 they saw that they kept in .... 4 with heart attack man and most amusing.


That is the best news ....
Remdesivor the magic drug via Gillead ... does not work ... never has worked and well it shreds your kidneys and liver. Mortality did not and does not change. It may or may not ... change things. When I read all the results it made Modernas vaccine even look good. We just approved it here for use but dont worry ... our chief medical guy seems to KNOW this ... not actually I Suspect that in the USA ones that used it in the North East were not amused and its extreme toxicity to other organs for no gains is what the first bloody clinical trial said. No change in Mortality at all .... Here is the link to our chief medical guy and he clearly knows this is BS to some extent. https://theprint.in/health/govt-reviewing-r...atients/454169/

Oh whoops that's India going this drug is destroying livers and kidneys ... the same one we approved here.
Here is our chief MD ....

https://www.health.gov.au/news/deputy-chief...on-11-july-2020


whops deputy and well I would suggest he closely read the initial clinical trial out of China with USA doctors involved and well ... its scary. I am not even sighing for that ....

Nor for this ...
USA just hit 500,000 COVID cases this week.In a single week ...


Trump did respond ...
Trump on "Fox News Sunday" repeated his assertion that the virus would eventually disappear.

"I'll be right eventually," he said. "It's going to disappear and I'll be right."


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-c...l-idUSKCN24K0IP

Amusingly hydroxychloroquine that malaria drug Trump was sprouting at the time I was reading what FLOP Gileads Remdesivir was I also read next the total clinical trial fail of the malaria drug. This was PRIOR to Trump touting it. What occurred was 230 plus clinical trails globally to test if Trump theory worked. I kid you not. Its on the NIH clinical trial data base. There were tow very good clinical trials that showed IT did not work ... then 230 more and all of them failed. Only about 500 million wasted let alone the brilliant minds involved.

Talk about wasting time and well ... make your own mind up on the Moderna vaccine and whether its tolerated. There are 163 current trials and most repeat old vaccines. Chinese have 4 .... Oxford one and even our own and a few others. Oxford one comes out latter this month and its a tradition safer type on the inactivaated vaccine .... we shall see. As to antibodies or do they work .... concerning scientific studies now are at about 20 . Does a lack of antibodies after day 90 or a steep drop ... between 60 and 90 matter for immunity ? One will never know.


Wait wait I have another set of steak knives and Its not even to the reason for the sigh. Ignore the markets. Ignore all else ...


Need to think for a sec and the above is NOT why I sigh on the main.

I try and be objective and my discussion previously with the gent was amusing but, wasted.


Links provided comments appreciated. Am I being a baby when for one of the few times in the last 30 years a clinical trial removed 10% of patients because they didn't like it ?



The next post is ... why I sigh. I do for the above, but well ... hm
mm.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 10 2020, 08:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sorry ...
American Pie the movie .... gym sock is being polite.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 9 2020, 06:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Plastic ....
You missed the pun ... time and time again ... now after 24 hours with your sock, your back ? With a quip ?


Ho ho ho ho .... obviously I had shingles not anything else. Bit hard to be concerned about an unborn child if it wasn't that.'
Possibly check inside your gym sock and see it there are any there among your efforts ?


Still amazed you think this virus is the Flu. Only goes to show the nuns were right about excessive gym sock use.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 8 2020, 08:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838



I am amused by how long it took for you to catch on .... Keep up the good work.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 8 2020, 07:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sigh ...

that gym sock is getting a workout I see.
Chicken pox is related to Shingles but there is NO vaccine for shingles. Herpes is from the same family ....

QUOTE
Why hadn't you been vaccinated as a child?

I think your there, but excessive use of gym socks ... possibly not, Small pox was eradicated I believe and it did have a vaccine ... from Cow pox which was harmless but worked.

No vaccine for chicken pox when I was a lad ... possibly now ... Shingles ... it does however have issues with a pregnant woman and is able to cross the placenta barrier and into the unborn child with at times devastating outcomes. The unborn child with no immunity to chicken pox gets it, which is the same family as shingles. At times in the eyes and is born blind and sometimes even worse.
Joe Rogan is that racist homophobic boofhead I now know and Musk denies their is any virus ... both clearly suffering from either excessive gym sock use and untreated syphilis.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 8 2020, 05:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

QUOTE
Elon Musk on Joe Rogan has just explained the BS around Covid deaths


Yes both well known doctors and they also advised if you believed them, you should not breed.
One other expert advised using bleach was the best for CV19 !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 8 2020, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

QUOTE
Colds can be deadly. Just as deadly as Covid.


Really ?
Truly ?

Its impossible for anyone to be thinking that way, right now, but clearly you are.
Time for me to take a break.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 8 2020, 07:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Okay ...
Opinions vary.
I love some people in this world.If I came into contact unwittingly with a CV19 infected person, I would be mortified if I infected say the woman I love or child.I would prefer to be harmed prior to harming them.For me thats what love is in part.

If downloading an APP ... means I reduce the risk, all be it small, I have done it.If I even infected someone else and having CV19 myself and being asymptomatic ... no symptoms till say 6 weeks latter, it would distress me to know I had infected someone else unwittingly and by downloading the app ... would help them get tested, treated and reduce the risk of them infecting others. A small price.

For me not to take a simple step, an opinion, who and what I am ... a core belief and way I live life would be absurd, and akin to deliberate driving on the wrong side of the road ... driving whilst drunk ... similar things. Not giving a F about anyone or anything is common, I get it. Selfishly I give a stuff about those whom I love. I also give a damm selfishly about myself and if unwittingly I came into contact with someone with CV19, I would prefer to know, get testing and treatment if needed.

Once with shingles, unaware it was contagious and basically mild, at age 35, I was sent home with nothing not knowing it was extremely contagious chicken pox and deadly to pregnant women and their babies or elderly, I was not amused ... since I had come into contact with one pregnant woman and felt the moral obligation when I found this out to call her and fess up, just in case.

So no ... dont download the APP .... if your wife or partner does not mean anything to you, go right ahead. Kids, grand kids, friends ... family ... even yourself and early treatment possibility. Nope none of that matters.

Same for turning off Bluetooth and leaving your phone at home or in the car ... its much the same.

Just my view, opinion, I do understand each to their own, but for me, how I operate, its not even a question. I love my better half, my family and friends along with lots of young ones .... and yes, even people I dont know, whilst not loving them, or being in love with them, I respect they have loved ones and ones that love them.

Must run and tell one of them I love them in these mad times.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 7 2020, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

‘They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.’

Benjamin Franklin 1775

Life is the penultimate liberty, without it, nothing else matters.I would hardly call Google tracking me, whether I like it or not, or Apple which is worse, Apple phones ... a liberty.

Even if you go in and turn off GPS ... your phone ... it speaks to towers and your location whilst not exact is ... known to your provider in my case Telstra.
Turning your phone off seems to defeat the purpose of the thing. That is to communicate to people.

Since I have little to hide, and more to gain, life and possibly the gift of life to another, I choose ... the downloading of the APP.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 6 2020, 09:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi,
I wish I had the answers.USA basically bailed out the big end of town.
Small people have a choice, work or starve.

You may have noticed reports the virus has mutated ? It has and whilst still not peer reviewed enough there are virtually no dissenting views. None of value.
USA is testing at 240k per day and getting 10% positives.
Italy and France and Spain getting 2% positives and Germany 1%.
Australia and NZ a very different scenario and we are getting 0.1% or 1 in a 1,000 positives.

You may have noted one of the best medical systems Singapore has lost control .... with infections. It has hope of getting back on track.
USA has no interest in this. Remdesivir does not work, flat out does not ... nor did the malaria drug .... nor bleach ... or whatever BS Trump or UK Boris may push.
It is draining to listen and watch. Both, well Trump has a mental disorder. A mere month ago it was back to work for Easter. Easter Sunday seems like 50 years ago but was April 12th 2020..
USA has had 800,000 more infections and 50,000 more deaths.'
Today, to distract you ... Trump is again claiming victory and its safe mulling over when to disband the virus task force when the virus has mutated into something that spreads more quickly !!

I would prefer to be an optimist but I am not delusional. USA at 24,000 infections a day and more than Italy ... needs to be testing for 330 million at 500k plus a day. If not more.,
This new strain is looking like its one that possibly one can get time and time and time again. I hope not, the virus is new and data is new so we hope not.
Since Trump congratulated himself at 4,000 cases ... and now at 1.2 million doing it again, deaths and infections seem not to matter. They do however to those not in the rarefied air of Trump tower.

I note UK and USA now claiming to be doing a trade deal. Since the UK has yet to even agree on Brexit final details, and Boris ... like Trump looking like an idiot for CV19 ... this is absurd. A trade deal with a nation 6 hours away via fast jet ? This to one side, these deals are complex and take years. Years because they can breach other deals and well without Brexit with the EU ... its impossible to do any deal

Australia and our dear NZ friends likely go close to getting rid of this Virus. Fingers crossed. Download the app ... Google can locate you within 1 meter at all times and half the apps you have on your phone have GPS turned on ...

This said, the road out will still be tough for Australia. No overseas travel for 12-18 months ? A vaccine and one especially coming form the USA without TIME and clinical trials stages 1.2.3.4 ... takes TIME> shortcuts lead to ... worse outcomes. Try the Bleach first !!

USA narrative is via Trump ... and corporate media on the main its safe. Being locked up for 27 days ...EU nations for 50 ... does give you zero immunity. Less so for USA. Neither for Australia but with zero new cases for say 14 days ... then 28 .... I will be feeling quite safe. Still no overseas tourists, no students .... and well ... the rest of the world is in a far worse place.

UK reported 97% fall in car sales ... yep sure one month.Its cases have as yet to peak ... so its not coming out of lock-down in May ...
Just sticking to cars ,,, so another poor month of sales.After that ... sure some pent up buying but twice as many without income or worried about it and their job future .... hmm at best for the year car sales down 2 months ... bad 97% and then say 70% and a few at minus 20% .... and then the rest at minus 10% .... down 20% plus year on year ?

Then take say ship building ... no cruise liners being ordered .... no tankers ... not with oil well below break even ... as for the absurd USA tech prices ... business will use windows 3 version from 1996 ... rather than the latest ...

Las Vegas ... golly ... it only exists for tourists and if its open again, well ... unless your mad ... down 70% this year ? I know Trump idiots are just that but ... maybe a bit better ... but it will be a smoking crater at best.

Fed and Trump .... gave one massive tax cut to the rich already ... bailed out the big end of town and ... well ... ignored the small end. Not sure what the small end will do with 500,000 deaths by end of 2020. That's the top end of my numbers. Likely with extreme regret its 250k. Around 128k by June 30th 2020.
These are humans. As yet, there has not been time to reflect and dwell on many counties in the USA, large ones .... not just NY but ones in New Jersey and Connecticut with 2.5% plus infected. Insane levels 5 times Italy.

As always I reduce into rallies. Sometimes and ... at times like this, a miracle is not possible. Sorry but its a virus. Yes one cure may show promise and some being tested, are showing some improvements ... without awful side effects like Gileads Resmidivir. The mortality rate actually appears to be 150% of NOT using it but the USA just approve it for use without even a clinical trial that is blind tested .... they actually just removed those who ... were having extreme reactions and dying. The drug actually costs a mere $10- a day to make and say $100- .... is going to sell for USD $4,500 a course.
IT does NOT work ... never did. ...
Most doctors know this, but, well greed and the USA body overseeing the drug is ... controlled by paid for Gilead people. Some declared it ... most did not, people doing the study reported, paid for associates and one for over 20 years, not mentioned of course in the clinical trial study.

This is the world of Trump.

Pre GFC I was talking about stimulating the corpse and giving the cancer patient aspirin. That was Bush .... Obama was not much better. Just better PR. Under Trump ... no aspirin for the ill, just a nice shot of bleach.

I do have a secret cure for Covid 19 .... dont tell anyone ... eat asparagus ... then the real secret is drink your own pee. In fact bathe in it ... and if you can surgically get a catheter inserted into your nether regions ... and a bag with a straw so you can sip sip away. Bathing in it ... well it takes care of social distancing and if only these neo liberal arrsehhhollles ... would try my remedy they would too stop reproducing and since they have already mutated into a lower form, its solves many problems.

But keep it a secret and the Asparagus is key !! It makes it more pungent.

I await Trumps next magic cure or utterance. I do wish someone would dose him with my secret cure. Diet Coke Mr President ? A long list of these types needs my cure.

Since Mr Trump sat there a few weeks ago and awarded funding ... like Shark tank ... he sat ... heard their proposals and well one company which has NEVER produced a vaccine and NEVER produced a drug, but was convincing and promised action and testing within 2 months, MR Trump awarded them a company called Moderna ? I think ... USD $483- million. Please do not tell anyone about my secret cure.

I have high hopes of winning a bet that I can both get $100- million in funding and make the President of the USA drink my pee ....

I wonder what I will charge per course, its all natural ... strictly enforces social distancing and ... well if Gilead can sell something at 50 times cost and its sells another AIDS drug at 100 times what it sells overseas ... hmm .... $5,000 a dose ? Here Try some Mr Pence ... Mr Munckin ... I dont have enough pee for all of them !!

Better make it $10,000 a dose as they love something rare.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: May 2 2020, 11:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

USA just passed Italy at CV19 infection rates !!!

Trumps new press secretary …. declared Trump never has told a lie and always tells the truth. She proclaimed she will not lie in her first press conference. Sorry if you needed laxative, well we now have it via the 31 year old propagandist.

I note USA has 36,000 new cases 1st May 2020 and 66,000 deaths. I also note their models which were touted to the press are all broken and one has total deaths adjusted up 5 times to now 72,433- seems to have all death stopping in USA as ordered by the resident idiots.



https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america



USA and Gilead drug that supposedly helps CV19 the peer reviewed scientific paper on its trial, shows NO change to anything other than adverse reactions. This was released on the 29th April the day after it was claimed it was of some use.



We await the actual USA trial and removing 10% of patients from the trial with extreme reactions of which 8 at least died, makes the actual mortality rate 16% verse 11% … WORSE … not better WORSE.

Australia and its numbers remain encouraging. As does NZ. USA with a broken system and seriously infected presenting latter and often beyond much hope other than let the virus run its course already has a sobbingly awful mortality rate.

Some states, Florida has taken to deliberate not reporting CV19 as cause of death. If they die as often is the case via heart attack as the lungs stop functioning via CV19, stress on the heart cases a heart attack, cause of death ? Even if your postie for CV19, medical examiners put heart attack as cause of death !!

USA, has not a hope. For their medical system and society with 11 million illegals who unless nearly dead will not get tested for fear of being deported is one issue. Second is 80 million on Medicaid which is an awful cover leaves them also unlikely to be tested because they will get smacked with a massive bankrupting bill on the side. Medicare not much better for 60 million. Then those insured, with deductibles of $3,000- needed to be paid first by the patient and then $1,500 co payments and this is the type of cover for say 100 million out of 130 million, the visit to the doctor or emergency room is last resort.

Basically a perfect breeding ground for a virus. If your poorer more than likely you live in a big household. If your poor you have little savings and need to work. I will have a sandwich please with virus on the side !!

I think it would be fair to say the USA is a “Failed State” right now in terms of its role as a government for the overall people. Its failed. Open and exposed. CV19 for now is just exposing the medial side of things. Society will not be the same for the USA post CV19. The indifference of the fate of the majority and seeing food banks swamped by people of all colours, astounding.

Last point and this also is clear is that USA not only is failed state, USA is a “Rouge State” for the rest of the world. USA policy under Trump not much different than Obama and Bush and Clinton. USA first. Open economic terrorism has abounded for many years. Actions of USA based and controlled credit rating agencies are absurd. USA state sponsored tax theft is assumed will continue post CV19 when all nations are faced with 50% more debt to GDP ? USA has been the worlds policeman post WW2 but increasingly more a brutal monster with some actions.



In 2019, USA was ranked number one in terms of being prepared for a pandemic. Ranked in the very upper end of medical systems when recently in 2020 many ER people were wearing garbage bags as protective gear. People who should have been in hospital for weeks were and still are arriving dead or near dead in ambulances with blood oxygen levels in the 60's.

USA openly and actively is not only slashing funding to say the UN or WHO, its trying to destroy them. World Bank and IMF are adjunct USA policy arms and their statistics are a joke when what one nation calls one statistic is vastly different to another. Without fail, they favour the USA for these institutions.

I am sure, USA will as always attempt to assert its authority. Its actions post 2016 with threatening virtually every nation with actions, will, of course continue but with, I suspect, virtually zero tolerance as time goes on for tax theft via the likes of Microsoft and Amazon, FB and Google.

Only time will of course tell. Not an environment easy to navigate.

Retail sector for those with virus issue till a vaccine a USA restaurant already likely struggling paying a waitress $3.40 an hour plus tips ? To get infected with say 33% of the customers ? Amusing and once habits change, as they have been forced to, the longer it goes on, the longer it takes to even think about going back.

My model still optimistic with 1.7 million reported as seriously infected in the USA by June 30th 2020 and 128,000 REPOTED deaths.

Of course, its now a race for who can be more dishonest, China or USA with its reporting.

With now 19 states after a mere 3 weeks break and infections at 4 times any EU nation right now being currently, CURRENTLY reported, lets go back to work.

As such science meets stupidity yet again ….

Likely double the numbers even reported by end of 2020 for USA and 3.4 million seriously infected, likely 250,000 deaths end of 2020 and well … who shall we blame ?

It is science. It is maths. Things ultra far right deny and do so with revisionist propaganda to try and cover the graves.

Right now, USA has more infections per capita than even Italy !!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It is testing at per capita similar levels to Italy finally, but has tested merely 66% as many overall !!

Its likely its current infection rate is close to Spain and worlds worst.

Italy locked down on the 3rd March and Maybe relaxes a bit by 8 weeks. USA well it only locked down for 20 states April 3rd and opened back up for 19 on the 26th to 29th April. Active unidentified cases are 4 times MORE and clearly so being identified each day in the USA. Outcome does not take a rocket scientist or anyone with an IQ over 50 to work out.

CV19 is a virus. It is immune to political bull. It thrives upon stupidity.

Calling USA a failed state, is mild. Whilst CV19 would have hit the severity already of USA actions to date have it at DOUBLE where it should have been. Since that will double by June 30th 2020 and quadruple by end of 2020, what does one call this regime ?

Actions of USA pre CV19 to the rest of the world pre CV19, were rogue and designed with contempt for all non USA people not in the top 1%. These ranged from de-funding aid programs to trying to destroy the UN and EU at any and all opportunities to tearing up mutual non proliferation treaties for missiles and weapons to any other thing that suited the USA. USA was standing alone pre CV19 on many issues and post CV19, even late 2020 I fear the worst. I hope for more, but fear what a sociopath will do.

Declaring 10 out of 10 for his efforts on CV19 when 400 were dead and still doing it with 66,000 dead is absurd and disturbing.

I note today magically Trump who defeated the virus at 15 cases, was stuck on 60,000 deaths magically went to 100,000 verses Mondays estimate of 60,000.

At least most despot genocidal maniacs did not appear on TV to display their contempt and absolute contempt for human life.

Welcome to 2020 !!

A "Failed State" that clearly does not care about the welfare of its people is being nice.
Comparing it to a genocidal maniac state would be far more accurate. Its not as though they are not aware how the virus spreads and what need to be done to protect the people. Back to WORK now for $3.40 an hour as a waitress plus tips with 33% of the seating ... then again 16 States dont even have that !!

Take care

Mark K.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 01:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy ....

Well its Sunday in the USA and as per normal no reporting of deaths or people with virus .... hence the sudden drop ... each Sunday same stuff.
Agreed they have massive issues for some time. Basically they don't care. Its only about white .... old rich people and CEO's .... nothing else.CV19 has a gift for them ... I note one of the main people and groups is led by Koch Brother Heritage foundation along with many other large self interested groups.

OIl .... oooh ... well technology and USA allowing the dirtiest of all oil to be produced .... Tar Sands in 2006 when George Junior declare it legal and Kyoto went out the window added part of USA's current stuff all stance. Other is of course new technology and shale oil being able to drill sideways and again no oversight and all environmental rules gone .... so they can frack till they bleed and do so.

Both very expensive and energy hogs so a nightmare for environment but, well .... they don't care ... about that.

We did have peak oil .... some time ago ... Peak Traditional oil ... that is vs a non traditional oil production say shale oil or tar sands. By opening tar sands and then fracking there now is about 150 years of supply. More than you think .... because old oil fields with tight structures ... well now you can frack them and drill and then fracture the structure and get close to 95% of the contained oil out over time.

This .... has come at a price and around $60- USD break even for this new production and the traditional oil is getting more expensive as well for the USA as its more than likely off shore verses onshore and that comes at a higher price.

USA oil production last time I looked massively up .... around 15% of global production and that's 15 million barrels a day. I think they still use somewhere near 20 million barrels so they do import .... but far far less.

Basically the USA and its reliance on imported oil is massively down. Demand globally despite some decent growth has been very little. Tiny in fact and the USA extra production has produced a glut. there already was a glut post 2010 ....

More efficient cars and so on.

USA response was to let Libya get invaded and cut their supply ... when that didn't work ... invent a reason to cut Venezuela off ... and since they have the largest reserves .... and Koch brothers got .... a refinery they lost there, revenge works ... well it didn't and there was no crisis ... but now there is one due to sea blockade and embargo .... Cause and effect back to front.

Still not enough.... so invent a crisis with Iran and they were complying with inspections for nuclear side, much like Iraq was when USA claimed ... WMD's but none were found ... and yet another oil supplier cut off.

Basically ... if at some stage Libya sorted itself out ... adds more supply ... Iran sanctions eased or ... better still the rest of the world Ignores the USA and its policies and then demands nuclear inspections and compliance .... its a good thing for everyone in the world. Venezuela and whilst not a fan of these regimes in Iran or Venezuela ... USA is run by a dictator who is just about to kill 150,000 more Americans.

Bottom line, USA really does not care about life .... for any nation and its own self interest is not about the people who would benefit from cheaper oil, its about the donations of the Koch family and oil interests.

USA has been trying to goad Iran into acting and taking out Saudi Arabian oil and the rest of the gulf ... which given the sociopath in the the White house is still on the cards.
If we just remain here, no change .... there is a massive already over capacity on the supply side. Yes traditional well will run out over time, but things now not operating due to low prices such as the tar sands of Canada will resume at say $60- USD a barrel and as such the topside barring a war event is limited for say 5-10 years ... and unlikely without massive currency devaluation to rise too far for too long up above say $70- USD.

That USA is run by self interest groups and ... well the 0.1% .... anything goes and that a million die in Libya ... so what. Oh they got NATO to green light that one ... Asked to leave Iraq after murdering an Iraqi militia leader ... USA said no ... oh and the Iranian General there as well on an official visit to Iraq Prime minister on his invitation .... Poof ... your gone.

Not sure any of this is relevant given the extreme events of late and USA acting more like a regime under a dictator and its genocidal actions to its own people and to basically every other nation as they go USA first, post CV19 ... I suspect the world stands united against USA and its self interest.

Then again ... who the hell knows.
I note and have noted a lot of hot air about fracking and whilst CSG ... coal seam gas is fracking a shallow coal deposit which is ABOVE the water table ... and as such the nasty chemicals they use can and do often seep into the water table, oil fracking is DEEP ... below the water table and as such risk of contamination is close to zero. Then again, most amusing have no idea when they write articles about the risk. Of course fracking does seem to cause earthquakes .... due to fracturing underlying structures and so on.

Where to from here ? Oil ... well with every tanker and storage tank at full and capacity, cut supply a mere 10% ? .... its NOT enough. Air travel unlikely to resume in any meaningful way in 2020 .... and subdued other demand so that ... stored up oil and what is still an oversupply of at least 10% for now verses demand ... needs to be shut down.

Compliance as always is an issue and OPEC members have a vast history of lying.
As such, nothing compelling for now about oil. Sure it may double .... it may halve .... but that over supply hang is still out there. For some OPEC members their reliance upon oil money is dire and ... well ... some can produce at double the rate they are today.
Hope that helps ?


Who knows .... its a seriously nutty world and I took my loss on the single oilier I had. I do not like the optics longer term in the say 2-3 year region with oil likely to be subdued for some time and their needs and financing .... requires much higher oil prices. Some seem to think this will go away, oil .... with CV19 .... but sadly ... the oversupply side has been going on for some time.


Have fun
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Apr 26 2020, 07:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Been thinking ...
which is dangerous,
Having studied the USA healthcare system for many years and ... well ... given up on its lack of humanity, its met a foe that will alter the USA.
USA about to hit 1 million CV19 cases. That is assured very soon. Deaths at 54 k and USA rubbish models have them stopping at 67 k and none beyond the 3rd July, ... all done by self interest healthcare industry types or far right people ....


Minimum deaths USA first wave 128k by 30th June 2020.Cases reported over 1.6 million

Since USA has seen fit not to cover people for wages ... or support ... only bailed out industries, you may have noted massive lines at food banks because people are literally starving.
Either work or STARVE ...

No choice .... some states like say Georgia only fully locked down on the 3rd April opened back up partially 24 th April and fully open 27th April.
Similar for Texas and Florida and 19 other States.

Literally the leaders only concerned about their share portfolio could not give a damm about the people. Nothing new there.
I didn't expect change and media driven by advertising dollar, politicians by political donations and lobbyist .... rich got not one but two tax cuts so far in 2020 ... in the midst of a pandemic.

For the 11 million illegals they have no healthcare and no support via unemployment ... they go and get hospital care or a test and it runs into the chance ICE will deport them. For another now 86 million have NO healthcare ..... 80 million awful Medicaid and even those with medical insurance only the test is covered. Most have things called deductibles and at around $3,000 then co payments .... of $1,500 - the first $4,500 each year is on them,
Amusingly no media will cover this in the USA or anywhere else. Put against a virus, that really does not care, much like Trump and in fact 95% of the USA leadership both sides, a perfect breeding ground for CV19.

As such, I believe USA not only will hit 1.5 million infected but without much doubt 3 million. Deaths and not counting the ones they dont count will top ... wait for it ... 250k by end of 2020.

Easy math. Person even sick either starves or works. Working when highly infected is never a good idea other than in the USA.Of course USA stock market seems to think its business as usual and all will be bailed out. They have to some extent and even healthcare companies raising premiums by 40% next year is to be accepted.

None of this is rocket science when USA is adding 35k new CV19 people a day officially and likely double that ... outside it.
At say 1.5 k deaths for the next 35 days till end of May ... its up over 100k and say 130 end of June 2020.

If they think because Mr Trump has a new cure, Malaria drug that killed more or now bleach and its safe .... they are to be pitied.Clearly .... if they go back to work without testing and testing MORE than any other nation because ... STUPID ... they are the most infected nation on the planet, things will NOT go well.
Vietnam killed around 64k Americans, its assured CV19 is double that Yes some sadly would have died but less than half the June total of say 130k if they acted, without stupidity, extreme arrogance and contempt.

Nothing ... saddens me more than what they have done, and are about to do. Yes lets get a haircut and since CV19 is 5 times more alive and well in the USA than here, I find this astounding. Lets get a tatoo or your nails done !!
I have never seen a nation decide to kill 150,000 more people.

Then again USA real life expectancy using the correct one for Latinos is 75 not 78.6 .... so on average 329 million people lost 8 years of life verses Australia since 1980. All so Mr Gates didn't have to pay tax nor Buffett or Bloomberg or Bezos.
This however ... is open as opposed to smearing statistics. Possibly the toll will be VASTLY higher than my numbers.

It will not be lower end of 2020.
Leaders of USA and CEOS dont care.

Get back to work and work for shitty healthcare coverage if your lucky, but work and die in vast numbers they will.

One salon ... hair salon .... one infected cutter they infect 3 other workers and then they cut 10 a day ? Go forth and multiply. The person making your dinner ... is likely living sharing with many others, with no healthcare or awful cover and wow ... gee can I have a sandwich with the works ?
One of course is a human tragedy. Another is the world watching with disbelief.
Lastly and least important is its effect on equities and the economy in the USA.

I always find it cheaper to not fill the tanks when I go flying and actually ... not use the brakes when going down a steep hill when driving.What is stunning is the carnage already caused in the USA is being met with quite idiotic media and corporate self interest cries to go back to work mixed with workers being blackmailed via no support and needing desperately to work and ... well ... die.

This is not going to be even close to any experience post 1800. Whilst I suspect most nations will fare as well as can be expected, some like USA and UK .... those two are heading for the bleach and cups to drink it from.
Patience and CV19 is very very patient with idiots.


Minimum deaths USA first wave 128k by 30th June 2020.Cases reported over 1.6 million


DOUBLE it for end of 2020 !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 09:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Oooh I just read .... the thread ...
No dont have PM ... not being rude, sorry but removed since it was potentially an issue.

Mistagear ... well he knows my name and well ... even track record since its published . and ranked ... some people, one can lead to water but they will never drink. We were too different and buying into value as markets fall not for a chartist. Perfect for a value investor.


As for comments mid Jan ... on the 30th Jan ... WHO declared it an emergency CV19.Prior to the 20th ... Jan ... which is where I commented on yet another end of the world ... strangely things DO change.It was quite a different tune ...


I was singing after that ....


Each to their own.

Sigh ...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 08:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

We sit ...
And patience is needed.
USA in total denial as per normal much like early 2008 if not worse.I find it surreal to see the USA response was about bailing out companies and ignoring the people.
Sadly so.I dont expect change, its too far gone. Biden is much like Obama and Bush and Trump. Same ... goals. Not a thing to do with the common good just the few.
TO see USA act overseas and treat its great people with equal contempt was evident prior to CV19.
A vaccine is a long way off at best.
USA locked down last, has the most infections and wants to re-open first.
Despite an awful toll its learnt nothing. Not a single thing.

This article sets out the actions and timeline.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/polit...america-982944/
USA and with Trump as the leader, has no patience and NO respect for science or humans other than their own self interest.
CV19 is a virus, no feeling and in fact a pathological desire to replicate. Much like Trumps pussy grabbing.
Sadly the virus eats stupid idiots, bigots and spits them out with ease.
Some Republican states who really did not full close down, infected at worlds worst rates just opened up fully for business. Georgia and by Monday you can go to the movies, get a tattoo, and everything is back to normal.
In the meantime, those not in the top 20%, all benifits and goverment help is missing in action. Either you work, or you starve. Sadly the imbeciles who demand this will likely have very low paid workers preparing their food, living likely in cramped houses with many and .... well ... stupidity as Boris from the UK found out does not make you immune to CV19.
Strange to watch the end of an empire and the total denial by a delusional dictator who gives himself 10/10 for his actions.The rest of the world, struggles with CV19 and one thing has changed. USA, once a great nation, is now the fool one sits in the corner and tell them to shut up. The world, forever changed, well not quite. I note Mr Potato head PM Morrison now parroting Mr Trump and right wing ideology word for word from Trump ... who parrots Fox news or Sky or the Australian.
Sadly ... despite doing a better job with CV19 than the bush fires, it seems .... we are just muppets for Mr Trump and his policies.
Since MR Trump is encouraging them to go back to work, I am sure the CV19 will respect his wishes. Trump actually said today he thought the virus might go totally away in 3 months. I thought he said that 3 months ago and well ... likely 100,000 deaths this time ... didn't make him blink, lets try again ?
Congratulations Mr Morrison for your lackey status. Maybe another White House dinner and we can put you in quarantine for 2 years ?
Sigh ...
Patience and sadly all will be revealed.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Trump has a cure ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMkyDS5ULts...ex=13&t=11s

Since his main support base is types like this ... I kid you not.

Meanwhile ... USA set to report more infections per million and deaths adjusted for population and since some states only shut down and SOME still not fully, but 4th April ... and he wants to go back to work 1st May with 5 times 0ur infection rate ?

Watch the preacher again and again.


ITs sad ... and scary.CV19 any vaccine is not getting closer but further away.
Any other thing to diminish it, or protect against it will take longer.
Whilst Australia and NZ have a chance to stomp the hell out of it .... USA ... golly ...

Leader of the World and Canada will have 20% the infections and death rate adjusted for population and getting 3 times the overseas visitors speaks volumes.
I sadly dont expect anything to change. Not Universal healthcare and certainly not political followings. Having lived in the USA for a very long time and with many USA friends, the delusional, condescending nature of USA exceptionalism and utter belief they are the best in every way is impossible even to use critical thought to examine facts or science.
USA market I note has rallied. Of course GFC it took 16 months for the bailout ... this one 16 days and then oversight when Trump signed it went out the window 16 hours latter.
Thats 454 billion USD leveraged to 10 times for big business. So 4.54 trillion. Who funds that .... because EU and China will and are not amused ... remains to be seen.
Meanwhile peasants promised $1,200 in a one off payment ... expect it at best 2 months from NOW .... some likely 4months. One of the many departments Trump has slashed funding to is the Labor Dept and then IRS their tax office.
I again stress, nothing will change. NOT a thing and Trump fans eat his drivel up like dog poop. Others, well .... any leadership in times of crisis seems good. Even instructions like the mad pastor to drink the poison cool aide and you will merely go to sleep followed blindly.
I have little idea of where the ball ends. CV19 distancing here for 18 months. Radical changes to business and employment will occur. Some professions and things like airlines and casino's and Hotels and Motels are in long term deep freeze.
USA had a massive rally the other day as Bernie Sanders dropped out. Any even remote chance of universal low cost healthcare went out the window. Most health companies and insurers gained a whopping 8-10% and of course any chance the right in the USA got taxed also gone.
USA health insurers already proposing increases of 30-40% next year in premiums. Of course, not ever reflected in CPI. Nothing like ghouls at work.
We followed this rally, despite, well Banks being told not to pay dividends ... not ordered and then the old ratings agencies downgrading them. One day selloff and then rally back to square one ? OH really ?
An at best, is spending habits are changed for a very long time. YEARS and despite governments best efforts business models OUT the window. Hotel rates and occupancy, forget it .... virus lives happily for 3 days ... restaurant ... even open can now hold 30% ? Is rent 30% labor 30% .... debt 30% ...
YIkes ..
the other shoe will drop here.
USA with 84% of shares owned by the top 10% and 93% by the top 20% .... what the peasants which includes all the middle class are well .... disposable.
American Airlines got 18 billion in relief via tax cuts and rules .... declared in 2017 it would never loose money again .... did stock buybacks for 17 billion and ... well its ... front of the line for 20 billion bailout again.
Pain and economic pain for most nations will be spread and owners and shareholders will cop some of it. Not for the USA .... no no no ... we are the leaders of the world and Emperor Trump defeated the virus at 15 cases.
Today 500,000 reported and well likely 60,000 dead first wave .... so many are dyeing in their own home that in NY instead of 20 a day its 200 a day. NOt tested for CV19 .... because they are likely poor. How many the extra 180 a day are CV19 .... even 100 a day ... well bugger me.
I note, they are making mass graves on Islands in the middle of the river and stacked 3 high 2 wide, over 50 meters .... that's 600 at a time and I counted more than one site and mass grave.
Sadness ... and the delusions of Trump have no bounds.





  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 07:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yep ...

Science verses stupidity

Human lives verses economic cost ....

When both are to be ignored and Massa dictates back to work and I have a cure ... WORK ... and gives you a vaccine that is a placebo or ends up with all males having their parts drop off in 18 months,

I know we are safe

MAGA
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 09:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

OOOH ...
how times evolve ...Some thoughts ...

HIDE ?

RUN ... its going to be long. An exit from sheer panic was offered via an equally silly bounce and took it and LOCKED in some losses as radically chopped exposure.
\To one day being given at $13 and change and day latter as the actual playing field went from bad to shocking near $17 .... Im will take anything to reduce risk and make pain of $23- and $22 and $20 purchases which well ... hurt.

NET loss on stuff despite at times 25% cherry picks on mayhem ... does not ... never will .. pay for exits and extreme capital preservation measures for some that saw awful falls, Many I avoided early those I did not, well .... taking a massive loss lowered by lessor gains is better than ... a very big question I have over the longer term for some despite governments best wishes, I sadly know some will ... be hit harder.

What was, is irrelevant and buying something for $20 and getting 8 years and 100% back in dividends I DON'T include ... just that the pain, oooh the pain.

It is however like a band aid. Right or wrong, this is a game changer not GFC nor 1929-32 ... but NOT far away one lost 88% and the other 56% ... not sure we get to 56% but a mere 23% down we do get a lot more pain. World as well. What was ... January 1st is NO longer the same field. GONE ... puff ...


From something else, the following and scope of this not reflected at the moment.
As we sift fact from fiction and Science battles with imbeciles and revisionist propaganda so disgraceful my contempt for USA leadership and Oligarch and Kleptocracy is ... disgust for what they have done to the normal common yank.

Anyhow ... from something else. Two ways to approach CV19 and virus actually seems to thrive upon idiots decisions. As the horror and likely cures go out the window and if anything the proposed timeline is now ... awful and a not well tested vaccine from the USA inspires me as much as their testing at 1% the level of say Canada on 1st March or our levels.
Anyhow ... sorry ... in a rush ... Read MFF monthly ASX release ... and read between the lines of the best fund manager Australia has. Ignore the MFG one ... unless your ... wishing for pain. Or follow it if your a devoted MMT Chicago economics person or a Trump follower . LEVERAGE .... all will NOT be well ... I joke sadly.

enuf ...
88888888888888888888888888888888
CV19 is special.

MERS and SARS as some are aware was hard to spread, via one showed symptoms to be able to.
As such a perfectly normal person walked around and when ill, and only ill was infectious.

CV19 whilst WHO some may think dropped the ball, or China, reality is by 30 Dec 2019 weeks after first infection WHO despite being lobotomized by USA and cuts, issued its first warning then again 8th Jan and for the 5th time ever .... 30th Jan 2020 a full emergency.

Whilst having opinions.... facts verses actions and science dictates.
Why WHO declared an emergency was contained in the 30th Jan release. CV19 was twice as infectious as SARS and MERS ... and spread when no sign of infection was evident via symptoms making it whilst less life threatening than its closest relations, 10 times more deadly via diabolical spread rates.

I would agree, we have NOT even started, we are in act1 science one in relation to the impacts and ending of this event.

Each nation chose to act. Australia acted accordingly and whilst not berserk like others like South Korea even our March 1 total tests was 100 times USA response. they had done 2,000 tests for 329 million people, Canada and other similar.

With a vaccine a long way off, longer than I thought at 9 months till meaningful deployment and likely 12 or more, we go into hibernation for a long while. Globally still DENIAL is the common theme. Being locked up for 6 weeks will NOT stop outbreaks popping up again and again till a vaccine is out there. A Prophylactic or Antiviral agent that works if infected or the former protects from getting infected, is NOT going to occur sooner than a vaccine.

MERS and SARS were a massive hit to Asia but quite different animals. In the end via testing people who developed symptoms and only then became contagious the two closest relations die out on their own.

SARS did get a vaccine. SARS1, and not one spoken about much because despite an awful mortality rate the vaccine was WORSE than the virus itself so to be blunt that's bloody hard when it already was deadly. Of course we are 2020 and not 2003, still without time and to see side effects and all of them via new vaccine or therapy, its clear any shortcuts will and likely will be a mistake.

The world is in two camps, economically and socially with developed nations. A displayed indifference for the welfare of the masses and those who are NOT. At this time. already strained relations are going bust. Stealing masks of one nation off the Tarmac or hijacking, paying 300% in cash for something already paid for is NOT going to help. Attacking China and we all have faults, their system and choice of goverment did as best one might expect being rational in sharing the new bug .... WHO releases show that and the timeline.

What we did and other nations did and cope is sadly displayed, with living horror in one case. Social norms of kissing on the cheek and CV19, early cases via large populations can even under normal rates see 1 person at them infecting 3 every 5 days ... in 50 days that's 59,000 infections.

We love om a word where science is denied. In fact if it doesn't suit us, attacked. CV19 really does have no political party and really cares not at all about BS.

It lives happily inside us at 37C and lives well at much greater temps. So expecting it to go away or be defeated is an absurdity. Shut up peasants BACK to work for $10 an hour !!

I am happy not to live in such a place. Of course most will deny till their face turns blue and not about to waste time of effort with them. Canada right next door to the USA, first infection 4 days after USA acted quite differently and society and tax much like our own. If one multiplies their population by say 10 you have the USA. USA magically claimed it knew, actions speak far louder as do now even crries to get back to work peasants.

This virus is a game changer globally. We will emerge, low debt to GDP adding 50% MORE will still leave us at HALF m0st nations totals and overall including tax we collect from rich and poor a total with super of around 38% tax. NZ our bestie similar .... EU nations same but mush higher Debt levels. They however took the effort to REDUCE post GFC, face ugly choices as did we, higher contributions for many latter retirement age and slashing payouts on some pensions.'

Eu same thing and our budget was to balance this year ... EU has been doing so for 8 years.. USA well ... a 5% Deficit 10 years post GFC ? and tax not slightly rising but tax cuts that went 92% to the top 10%.

Golly gee ,,,, they like all others .. will take a hit. Will the peasants go back to work ? Will the world endure a nation likely to be 30 trillion in debt over a much lower GDP size than now so likely 160% Debt to GDP and a mere 12% likely being collected in tax ?

Who will nations lend to ? An EU one average at 135% debt to GDP and 40% tax .... or one with $160- and $12 income but wanting to spend $20-

Trump and he is no different than Obama and Bush or Clinton just wall street investment bank types of a different color. They DEMAND you lend to them

I am sure the French region hardest hit will forget 20 million masks taken from the Tarmac as will Germany and Canada .... having expected supplies ... stopped.

In the GFc 3 banks came clean and declared they were in effect broke .... late 2007. Same assets identical bonds on every banks books and ... as such if one was marking them to market and the the rest ... were also broke. Market reported 5% plus GDP growth that week ... really ? Market did fall ... 15% only to recover as all is well was trumpeted to 3% off all time highs. On and on and ON it went. The problem was in plain sight at the start. Amusing to get a billion into AMBC the bond insurer when it had 10 billion in losses it had already ... it got an AAA rating just like Australia which had NO federal debt not a cent and AMBAC was broke 9 months latter.

Expect the same, in fact, WORSE. China relations were poor with USA and so too every other nation either bullied or stolen from by USA sponsored tax theft. Australia did better than most and got about 20% of the tax Google took via 472 million settlement. The USA tax cuts halving USA tax paid is the sole reason why USA stock rose above all others. NO other reason ... or other than state protected tax theft that saw USA threaten 100% tax on French wines if they god forbid got Google or Facebook to pay tax.

Oh the world is changing and post CV19 ... all with HIGHER debt to GDP over a decade as in the past by prudent management it will be reduced. NO longer will the gloves be feather filled when discussing state sponsored and protected global tax theft. France will, nor will Germany ... tolerate it. Being polite and tolerating USA laughing at the Trumpist who really is not different from Obama who also was just a Treasury controlled by Goldman Sachs, so too Clinton Bush and on and on.

I have disgust and extreme regret for the common USA people and what their leaders and imbecile has done to them. Sadly with not much functioning free media and basically FOx news on every channel, even glancing at an adjoining country Canada and their CV19 results will not enter their minds.

Market for now, USA will deny ... dispute and well ... I am sure funding another 25% of the GDP via a slush fund to support non global tax payers will go down like Dick Smith float in future years.

Governments and good ones, and nations have billionaires and rich. Some inherit and some make it by brilliance. What defines and differentiates EU and UK and NZ and virtually all others is that they get taxed at a HIGHER rate and not a lower one. Not to penalize brilliance or punishment ... they pay their fair share. Some of our own billionaires I like, some I despise as the self serving people they are. BUT ... they PAY tax contribute to society and NOT play god and spend $876 million USD with a sole goal and thats to STOP tax to the rich. Bloomberg didn't even get a Tshirt for that.

Things, often take generations or events to change.
We have one that, well ... is unique and relationships globally already frayed are now I suspect shredded. No amount of apology will change recent events and even more racist comments via chief troll.

I cry for the lack of any comprehension or caring whilst denying CV19, doing NOT a thing, 2,000 tests and Canada compared did 100 times that adjusted ... its too late ... TOO LATE ... to advert.
Now its a victory if 100,000 die ? I like and respect and love Yanks, most with about 5,000 on the nose and likely more, a tiny fraction now rule.

Other nations, the NEEDS of the many outweigh the needs or need of the one or few.

We are, in not in denial, its often when inside an abusive relationship the awful becomes normal. Its like a dream, did someone just assassinate a leader flying to another nation ? Or did a nation politely ask and other with a spy plane over its soil, rather than shooting it down, to leave ? Did the worlds richest man never pay a dividend, never pay tax anywhere ?

Times they are a changing. Of course, resistance as the Borg say, is FUTILE. of course with every billion they possess they will sadly in the case of the USA expect and demand the rest of the world fund their debt, not ask even for pennies form their profits overseas and BOW ... and then fund their slush fund to bail out tax criminals.

Its going to be FUN to watch. TAKE THE PAIN NOW ... early and well ... a vaccine is not possible inside 12 months. As such, the impacts I gave are an AT best, and an at best impact in the stock market is not anywhere near current levels.

I note now the USA oil industry is to be bailed out via Tariffs and all oil at $60- a barrel because USA break even is that. Wonder who will bear the brunt and who will bear the benifits ? We and EU and most others already have petrol with massive inbuilt tariffs and stuff. Then again we have a functioning healthcare system ... we have decent roads, good education and good support if you get sick via income or loose your job.

GET BACK TO WORK .... NOW ... PEASANT ... I need my burgers .. the virus I defeated it at 15 cases and the rest is fake news.

See Donald when he announced 100,000 deaths likely, he spent 15 minutes talking about his ratings.
What a caring fellow he is. Amusing 7 minutes about how we love his wife Mealaiananan .. whoops Ivanka. Oh boy ... they started with a C grade movie guy Regan and now a game show host and slum lord running the effort Ivankas pretend Husband JJJJAaaarod,

NOW .... clean my boots ... BOY !! and that racists term is for anyone non Trump like of any background race and creed even white dumb folks called Kiwi's whoops ,,, Ozzies ...

Find a rock and HIDE in a financial sense. What is left standing in 12 months will not resemble o matter the governments efforts what is standing today. As yet to be reflected in stocks let alone eventual mayhem from overseas and peasants refusing to serve Trump his burger and his tantrum.

Upside ? well we just had the dead cat bounce !!

My worst case, outlook is NOW my best case result 14 days latter. Of course we are miles away from a best case low and worst case ... is well .... I dont want to think that far ahead.

Doomsday preppers seem sane right now so ... well if that's true even for an instant, golly !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 23 2020, 08:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy

USA virus numbers at about 5 am started being LOWERED by massive amounts.The count got up to 39,000 infected then one by one sites ... dropped 8,000 or so.Someone can explain it ... latter.I did take screen shots and raw data in some states of their FACTUAL numbers got multiplied by 80% .... Rhode Island 83 cases ... blink it was 66 on one site.
Similar and shall we say disturbing crap.

This aside.
USA futures and o/n derivatives opened.
That the numbers were 32k instead of an assured 40 k or 39k ... 2 hours prior ...
USA futures ...
DID not open LOCKED limit 5% down.

They took a mere 3 mins 53 seconds due to the ABOVE I suspect tinkering with NUMBERS which is ... what it is.

They now are LOCKED 5% DOWN .... FOR NOW
...
whilst fluid and news may change things, I suspect they DO not rise.

Not till the limit is expanded to 13% and since I suspect many in America were watching as numbers got fudged ... in real time, possibly to not have the population panic, then again 38% of FOX news people are not even at all concerned and that the most popular news source ... this is about the Keptocracy and Oligarchy people rather than the masses.

Whilst I may disagree as is my right with PM Potato head here and his 6-12 month timeline and whilst reading the riot act to get idiots to STAY isolated until ... a bloody vaccine happens and this will be a doosey on the ASX .... if they are stupid enuf to open after that 253 seconds to loose 5% so 15% in a straight line ... for the USA side ....

Only time will tell.
Its only money.
Stay safe ... tell someone you love them ...
Call someone isolated and needing a call.

The rest will be what it will be.
Its not the end of the world ....

YET ... we Humans are actually pretty smart and hope is around the corner

Take care
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 23 2020, 08:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy

USA virus numbers at about 5 am started being LOWERED by massive amounts.The count got up to 39,000 infected then one by one sites ... dropped 8,000 or so.Someone can explain it ... latter.I did take screen shots and raw data in some states of their FACTUAL numbers got multiplied by 80% .... Rhode Island 83 cases ... blink it was 66 on onse site.
Similar and shall we say disturbing crap.

This aside.
USA futures and o/n derivatives opened.
That the numbers were 32k instead of an assured 40 k or 39k ... 2 hours prior ...
USA futures ...
DID not open LOCKED limit 5% down.

They took a mere 3 mins 53 seconds due to the ABOVE I suspect tinkering with NUMBERS which is ... what it is.

They now are LOCKED 5% DOWN .... FOR NOW
...
whilst fluid and news may change things, I suspect they DO not rise.

Not till the limit is expanded to 13% and since I suspect many in America were watching as numbers got fudged ... in real time, possibly to not have the population panic, then again 38% of FOX news people are not even at all concerned and that the most popular news source ... this is about the Keptocracy and Oligarchy people rather than the masses.

Whilst I may disagree as is my right with PM Potato head here and his 6-12 month timeline and whilst reading the riot act to get idiots to STAY isolated until ... a bloody vaccine happens and this will be a doosey on the ASX .... if they are stupid enuf to open after that 253 seconds to loose 5% so 15% in a straight line ... for the USA side ....

Only time will tell.
Its only money.
Stay safe ... tell someone you love them ...
Call someone isolated and needing a call.

The rest will be what it will be.
Its not the end of the world ....

YET ... we Humans are actually pretty smart and hope is around the corner

Take care
Mark K


  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 22 2020, 06:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hmmm

listened to the news. Always a mistake.Even the PM saying or implying a lock-down will be 4 months if not more .... astounding.
USA is NOT testing people and in fact has run out of tests and asks people NOT to get tested ... REALLY ?


Obviously end of the world ... when the leader of USA task force actually says you need not get tested even if your sick. WTF ? They have run out of tests.

All non essentials in OZ closed tomorrow so ... unless the stock exchange is something other than the volatility machine it is at present, that means them. Likely NOT ... given some other stupidity being dosed out liberally.

This will pass, eventually ... via a pause and isolation, spread will reduce and hopefully to sporadic levels as a vaccine is somewhere found along with one or many more anti virals. I missed that from our PM totally and his potato head speech.

I am still agog at USA ..., sorry we have no tests ... even of your sick ... only for healthcare workers and USA to be renamed New Sudan or Somalia
I am sure of markets open ... they will remain calm as Posiden adventure the movie. Likely Rambo will be unleashed in a bad mood and make it all better ?

Maybe someone can lend the USA some tests, but then again China is the target of USA bile ....

Astounding times. Sad, but astounding.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 22 2020, 05:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

To be honest... ...
Here was a level ... on the ASX and we have played around this low a few times.Suspect, if stupidity rules and the market opens Monday ... USA will not fare well with likely 40,000 cases verse 16,000- at 4pm NY time Friday


Our market could be very positive ... via stimulus and sanity for a second or two ... sadly the USA has 10 days till they have any idea where virus totals are. Support ... serious one in the USA is 1,800 ish S+P and 4,000 a GFC adjusted for inflation low that in raw numbers was say 3,100 on the ASX 200 now its ... 4,000.

Reality, and not much clear other than .... hope and well founded one a vaccine is found and wheeled out.Negative of being in lock-down for say 14 days .... two ways people view this .... or more ways .... its the end of the world ... or its needed and then the idiots who ignore it all.

Unless anything changes ... even if we hit 2,000 cases here, Borders closed and in 3 weeks ... either they are better or not. With testing at even more hectic pace here ... new cases identified will peak .... those identified and cured will increase and in reality we will identify say 10 or 20 a week ... and have a mere 100 still ill.

Fingers crossed verses some of the hysteria right now.

Vaccine ... 3-9 months not the old fart the govt used ... who retired 15 years ago and uses pre 2000 technology and estimates.
Best call for me ... as vaccines being tested ... 9 by the Chinese ... 2 very good ones and 6 others now in initial stages ... likely 20 plus in a month being trialed .... so possibly ... as early as 2 months if we accept the Chinese one but likely 6 months.

With enhanced understanding of the thing ... life will resume all be it in 3-4 weeks and ... at say 50% for some places and post vaccine and it being widespread in use , say 9 or 12 months ...


Markets. It scares me that no announcement as of NOW on Australian side.USA faces an Italy style diabolical tally.
I wish it was not so. I wish for many things and sadly they never occur.
If they keep their market open its only a matter of time till they are limit down 20% and more than likely Monday if they are that stupid.
Sadly they are.


But ... hoping it becomes a bad dream ... knowing it will not and the arrogance of Trump will ensure worst outcomes possible.
So, either way, not rushing in, could be wrong and MAd Max type scenario which many idiots on TV seem to be braying about forgetting polio or Cervical cancer or AIDS all defeated ....


USA will of course ignore our actions as we ... are ... irrelevant. They will myopically focus on their own fate and blame others which seems to be Trumps style.

One thing I can only say with certainty is if they open, they will regret it and it will NOT be pretty. Volatility at unseen of levels EVER ... seemed not to even have them reaching for pause button. Will 27,000 cases now verses 16,000 at 4 PM NY time and 40,000 tomorrow give them reason to pause ?


NO is the honest answer and ... when you say see panic hit, trading stop at down 20% .... and essentially do the same the second day ... with no one able to exit, will that wake them up ? It can go on being 20% of the remaining total ... so 5 days of 20% will not be zero ... it will still I suppose have 10% of value left whilst Trump holds a 4 hour press conference up from the 2 hr 40 min one today up from 60 mins a week ago.

Just be careful.
IF someone is so stupid to go outside in a cyclone ... or not take precautions ... prudent ones, well .... it will be what it will be.
I do think sanity prevails and its closed. Markets and USA can open all by itself as other saner nations go, well ... EU and UK go ... well we closed the Pub why the hell is the Market open ?



Too hard.

Be safe
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 22 2020, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi Pendragon ...
yes a lot of ... well BS with numbers. Chinese, YEP ... South Korea for ages a fictional reporting of things. Whilst they did well, not suggesting anything else, that deaths stayed at the same with 7,500- cases and a lot serious for 72 hours .... speaks volumes verses likely reality.

USA ... denial ... delusional denial by dictator who defeated it ... gave himself 10/10 and well ... seems to be picking a fight with the Chinese even now whilst blaming Obama for shortages and he has been dictator for life since ... well forever.
Markets not functioning at all. DIRE and extreme lack of liquidity .... main function to provide say capital raising venue ... forget trying to cap raise in the next 2 weeks unless your insane !!

With extreme regret USA cases likely 200% of Friday 4 pm NY time when the derivatives and overnight trading open just prior to our own.
We announced a decent on paper stimulus ... but I point out virtually NONE of the promised bush-fire money has been paid 3 months latter. NEARLY NONE> and if you fill out the 17 pages it gets sent back again ... and again ... asking for things already in the 17 pages ...

This said .... USA lets say futures I suspect open locked limit 5% down.
We may initially open UP ... after stimulus ... as Asia opens ... looking at the obvious USA whilst NOT trading and in Limob is likely 13% if NOT 20% down ... will not be well behaved.
Who the hell knows .... maybe they keep it open and it stops prior to 13% next limit being hit.

USA has bugger all to do with our economy ... China which is passed the worst ... so too South Korea largest export destinations. Hong Kong same ... Maybe we when they are cleared let them visit and BARR the USA till it gets a handle on how many .... which will be 14 days and then wait another 90 days ... and then seriously consider if we let any of the leaders back into Australia EVER ... or at any time. Political and Business ones as well since its a non functional democracy and oligarchy or Kleptocracy at best.

I cry for the common Yank whom we love and to see the worlds third richest man, Bloomberg, Most boring ... run for president and spend 860 million USD a mere 1.3 billion AUD to block any and all tax rises and in the process also any hope of Universal cheap medical care which was ... called communist ... and socialist ... are we ? ALL commies here ? Did Bloomberg even get a TShirt for his 1.3 billion ? He did however wipe out Warren who wanted tax rises then Sanders ... so mission accomplished.

Worst for the poor in the USA right now ... 500k homeless ... 1.5 million living out of cars .... 11 million undocumented and all with zero healthcare .... they are sadly irrelevant at MAra Lago and Trump resorts ...

Does Fake orange tan protect from CV19 ? Thats a topic ... which Trump seems to believe works. It seems even he lied about being tested, because, well the procedure is sticking a thing 15 cm long up your nose and swiping the back of your throat, and he was unable to describe even that when asked.
Fake news. ... all fake news. ... it is time to distance and quarantine from stupidity !! Close the bloody MARKETS.

Not money markets and NOT FX .... they will function and be seen over by the RBA as always ... just the rest.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 22 2020, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yep ...
Like most ... if not all, I underestimated the impact and reaction.Not suggesting an exit for myself, what happens happens and ... either we continue or we dont.Some with sheer terror, are hitting the exit.

I note PM has announced stimulus.Since NOT A CENT from promised bush-fire support has hit 3 months latter for 90% talk is cheap.USA ... well its response an absurd mix of denial and stupidity.

We need to distance from USA and whilst we may initially go UP if they open markets tomorrow as I type ... USA cases at 25,600 up over 50% in a single day.

Testing numbers which lag .... and they report samples tested which is 2-3 per person even being generous ... are at 20% at most of our own or EU testing even NOW.

I note cautious mumblings from our govt about time for vaccine at 12-18 months despite worlds best talking far shorter.

USA .... and its derivatives markets opening prior to our own, I cannot see it being pretty. As Asia opens if allowed and despite a reasonable stimulus announced that for now staves off any chance of bankruptcies for business for a while and support for the people, it will be as though its NOT done a thing market wise as say Japan opens and see the USA numbers at whatever the total is tomorrow which is likely DOUBLE the 16,000 identified cases as of 4 PM NY time Friday and have a cow.

Not that USA cases have too much to do with the Japanese economy even in the medium term.
Its all about confidence and sadly with few leaders globally and Trump blaming Obama for a lack of masks, scoring himself 10/10 when there were 1,600 cases, prior to that declaring he had defeated it at 15 cases, its sobering and actually scary his delusions at 25,000 plus cases.

That he now openly calls it the Chinese virus and is bombing Iran backed people in Iraq ... likely because they in the South merely share the Shia faith is astoundingly more absurd since the WHOLE Iraq parliament asked the USA to LEAVE their nation.

Unfortunately democracy is no longer in the USA and a weird mix of dictatorship, oligarchy and more Kleptocracy exists. Klepto maniacs steal everything and the elites running the USA is for them, not the poor peasants. MAGA 2020 ... and another 4 years ... with Bloomberg blocking any person threatening to raise tax spent 860 million or 1.3 billion AUD to get rid of Warren and then Sanders ... and in the process any ta change along with, medicare universal cover which they called communist and socialist.

Sadly, I suspect ... USA total infected when the Dictator calls it the flu ... will exceed 100k if not Italy type numbers at 150-200k. Of course those 500k homeless and 1,5 million living in cars and the 11 million illegals with NO insurance or health-cover will not be tested, counted or cared about.
Such is the disparity of the USA verses Australia and the sooner we put MORE distance between us the better. Trump makes Pauline Hanson look smart, Bob Katter look reasonable and even Mark Latham seem not a fruitcake.



For NOW .... for the good of the economy and nation ... close the bloody exchanges for 14 days till the dust settles. Its primary function is NOT working and all secondary ones either. If someone expects to cap raise during the next 2 weeks good luck. NO functioning liquidity and the opposite with predators looking to SQUEEZE and destroy more the theme of late.


RBA either acts with govt backing or .... it asserts its primary function and independence and says get stuffed GOVT .... ASX and SFE are closed. Not sure how that works but the RBA can and will make their lives a nightmare the ASX if they did not comply. Irrespective of APRA or ASIC or whatever rules.


Doubt sadly it occurs ... so we open up bit ... USA futures down a lot ... Japan opens and we fall a bit .... likely more as the day goes on .... USA opens 9.30 am NY time and its down 13% .... and on and on it goes.

Ahhh ... I wish I was wrong, hoped I was wrong about USA virus total and my love for yanks with many friends there, sadly .... when an imbecile says its all fine .... 40% of people follow without thought.

Stay cool. It will pass.If it doesn't its been a pleasure, life, family and loved ones.
NO I am not thinking this is anything other than a blip ... all be it ... one with say Hong Kong response and ours not perfect but good ... will be a way of life going forward. No pashing random women who ask me every day !!

I wish.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 08:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Just to correct an error ....
I relied upon someone else ... which is a mistake there have been around 40 total shutdowns of the USA exchanges and ...

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) closed at
the outbreak of World War I. Exchange officials maintained that the threat of
European liquidation of US securities justified a suspension in trading as a
circuit-breaker. However, the exchange remained shuttered for more than four
months, from July 31, 1914 to December 12, 1914.

Other reasons 9/11 was till it opened on the 16th ? ... a few days ... various other things from blizzards to obscure reasons ... to blackouts and once via Presidential order I believe in 1969. Something landed on the moon. Hurricanes ... and storms spring to mind as well. In 2010 ... a flash crash or have you forgotten ?

An aside. But ... well the WW2 thing was actually WW1 ... and the trading event was not stopped for days but MONTHS. USA media even normally very factual sources, not to be relied upon. My mistake
Sorry
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 08:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Just to correct an error ....
I relied upon someone else ... which is a mistake there have been around 40 total shutdowns of the USA exchanges and ...

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) closed at
the outbreak of World War I. Exchange officials maintained that the threat of
European liquidation of US securities justified a suspension in trading as a
circuit-breaker. However, the exchange remained shuttered for more than four
months, from July 31, 1914 to December 12, 1914.

Other reasons 9/11 was till it opened on the 16th ? ... a few days ... various other things from blizzards to obscure reasons ... to blackouts and once via Presidential order I believe in 1969. Something landed on the moon. Hurricanes ... and storms spring to mind as well. In 2010 ... a flash crash or have you forgotten ?

An aside. But ... well the WW2 thing was actually WW1 ... and the trading event was not stopped for days but MONTHS. USA media even normally very factual sources, not to be relied upon. My mistake
Sorry
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Ha ha ...
Limiting fear ... is the object of the exercise.If opened ... allowed to trade, its not going to be pretty.Likely to cause massive permanent damage.
A pause ... as occurred 9/11 or 1941 .... same reasoning and this time the pause, until USA tests enough and the numbers stop jumping 25% a day .... is needed. By then, other nations advanced on it, will like China have many cured.
The case for STAYING open, in these unusual times is virtually zero.
Less than zero.
Whilst anything can happen by Monday, its assured USA cases are much much higher.What is the point of remaining open when likely end result is extreme volatility and if anything ZERO liquidity .... and deliberate destruction of assets as computer driven models like in the GFC search for stops. In the meantime, this time around, it may go much further with terrifying results.
We shall see.I wish and hope I am totally wrong.
Have fun
RBA is my hero and I suspect they act no matter what EU or other nations do.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 05:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Markets should PAUSE and shut down.

Howdy,

Having been around for a while, and a fossil in many ways, over the past 37 years involved in markets and most currencies, bonds, equities and commodities at various times, not much is new.

Famous last words. Often things I know are worthless or worth 1% of the heights they reach is not uncommon. Conversely, in times of panic and this time terror, the opposite occurs. People, seeing 50% of value lost illogically panic and sell. Other times when its a worthless asset the stop loss is the correct action to preserve capital.


Right now, either society ends, markets and economies crumble or they DO NOT.

The Billy Joel song, as a former head of trading for one of the worlds largest banks “I go to Extremes” springs to mind at times like this. The words, “so high and so low, with no in between” is so true of most activities on markets today where idiot savant trading dominates.

“I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.”
― Edgar Allan Poe


The CASE and precedent for hitting the pause button on all trading and equity markets is CLEAR.


ALL TRADING OF EQUITES AND DERIVATIVES, Futures. options and others in G20 Markets needs to cease totally prior to Sydney opening and USA market futures opening Monday Morning.

An opinion, but actually a no brainier. As one of few with 35 plus years experience still active in most markets from currencies to bonds and equities to commodities, to see for instance a 10% range in 8 hours on an equity Index USA trading representing 20 trillion or so, is and at best alarming.

Markets have stopped and all trading in Equities, derivatives and futures, options paused post 9/11 . It did so to stop irrational fear. IT also paused for some time after the Bombing of Pearl Harbour late 1941.


This time. It should not even BE a question.

USA sadly dropped the ball declaring the virus defeated at 15 cases. Denied it would hit them due to USA being, well, better or the best in the world is delusional in the extreme.


USA did NOT test in any significant numbers even till early March 2020. CDCC reported a mere 8,000 samples or less, and each sample being 2-3 per person its likely a mere 2,000 actual people were tested up till 10 days ago.

To ramp up to say EU test levels, takes time. CDC produces daily totals and these show snails pace verses what to reach say the 10,000 a day a nation less than 10% the size USA is appears where they are NOW.

Cases have risen, and PANIC … is not even close to what is about to occur.

USA as I type is 19,700 cases for 329 million people. Its testing at about 10% the level it needs to for it to identify those infected and isolate them.

USA equity futures open at 9 am Monday morning if allowed. They have limits at 5% where trading pauses in overnight trading, then at 13% and then at 20% where all trading for a day ceases.

It is sadly and without much doubt, that the reported cases in the USA rise dramatically even by Monday morning and it opens LIMIT down 5%, when trading resumes at 9.30 am NY time or about then it opens LOCKED limit down 13% and when it resumes after a pause, likely it sadly hits 20% down and all trading ceases. NO actual trades will occur in reality. It will go locked limit …

Would it not be prudent to HIT pause …. over illogical, if not idiotic fear ? Prior to this occurring and if allowed, its possible to do the same thing the next day.


Essentially end of everything. Possibly forever for some companies in the panic. They literally cease to exist as idiotic conditions exist.

Irrational fear, in fact, hysteria that has replaced denial is virtually guaranteed. Its actually not unexpected. It seems they are in threat, their very lives according to the doomsday preppers society.


There is HOPE …


This FEAR, is NOT logical. Whilst understandable as a threat to your life, all be it minor if precautions are taken, THIS WILL PASS.


Comparing it to Spanish flu where even oxygen in hospital was not available nor ventilators is, well … absurd. Penicillin not invented or in use for 25 years to stave off infections ….

Whilst if NOT stopped spreading, CV19, the virus can be if allowed and not controlled, deadly. We KNOW what to DO.


PAUSE … deep breath.

This is one Tracker …. Johns Hopkins …

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops...423467b48e9ecf6

And this another,


https://ncov2019.live/


Now after a lot of deep breathing, lets have a look.


China …. 80,000 cases … sadly 3,200 deaths and still some serious cases, 75,000 out of 80,000 cases, CURED or sadly they passed away.

Virtually NO new cases for a nation of 1.3 billion people.


This will of course matter bugger all for the MAYHEM about to hit. USA and its leadership, which has 33% with pathetic health-cover or NONE will be the focus of the next weeks. USA USA USA …

So whilst it took TIME for China to attack the virus, massive testing and isolation/ social distancing WORKS.

Again likely forgotten in the next 2-3 weeks as the financial markets implode as the USA, as it always does, believes its the centre of the Universe.

Lets go to Hong Kong, hit by SARs MERs Avian Flu and Swine Flue issues in the past, with 7 million plus and in close proximity to China, its had a mere 256 cases identified.


Are you getting any sanity back into your perspective ?


DOES … now alerted to the threat, social distancing WORK ?

Of course.

Talk of all activity ceasing forever ? A common topic of the media. Did it happen in post 2003 Sars era ? Or other pandemics ? OF course not stupid.

It will NOT stop what will be likely an implosion IF ALLOWED … markets to open Monday.


USA will and is likely to go troppo.

Its sad numbers, eventually assured with extreme respect and regret to rise and rise till testing reaches around 10 times the current levels at say 100,000 plus tests a day.

Time and time again, idiotic if NOT absurd in the extreme on one side of ignoring a virus replaced with, which is normal doomsday preppers and idiots who have predicted the end of the world time and time again. The weird fascination I have for those shows and low tolerance for their reasoning is now replaced by, a real life event, that, well, if you DONT social distance or ignore a bloody virus that spreads, STUPID people prevail.

Deep breath. If someone comes inside your NOW personal space of 1.5 metres, for NOW, they are to be sprayed with bleach in the face to stop them.


All this aside, the absurdity of what is about to occur and USA is going to go from a slight unease and in some cases terror to total mayhem in the coming week. All of it based, upon little logic.

If sadly the USA hits 100,000 cases identified its a tragedy, much like Italy which is 25% the population and has hit 47,000 cases. Of course one can only wish it was not so and express our deepest sympathies for those lost and well wishes and prayers for those still fighting it.


We, as a species, as opposed to looking with some cynicism via USA media and cable news as the Chinese built hospitals and enforce quarantine and massive testing, many nations, ones already well versed in previous virus events did much the same.

Singapore revealed how far it could track visitors and citizens and anyone, anywhere, via CCTV and mobile signal was identified, read the riot act quarantined and locked away in threat of massive fines and jail and they had, 385 cases despite being a travel hub with about of 5 million locals. I wish, USA had similar outcomes and being 60 times the size, the 20,000 mark will be passed and exceeded in hours.

IT WORKS …. Social distancing.

All forgotten.


MARKETS must close and SHOULD not open Monday.

Predicting LOGIC … I suspect NO trading actually occurs in USA markets EVEN if they remain OPEN …. it locks LIMIT down at 5% …. Trading stops … no trades actually occur … between zero and down 5% … trading resumes and it LOCKS limit 13% .. DOWN … no trading occurs between 5% down and 13% down and reopens after a pause and likely 30,000 USA CV19 cases identified and all sanity and logic left in dust after some, with margin, loose everything and any exit NEEDED …. so the 20% limit down … cascaded into with NO real trading or exit seen. Repeat the next day ….


I will go beyond this. Stupidity and non factual events or actions have one thing that cures them. TIME or Scientific evidence and logic.


Obviously in panic, we ignore … the latter.


CURES, Vaccines and ANTI Viral Agents.

A cure, or treatments, some seem to work and some do not.

Why say Italy has been hit so hard, until scientific data and peer reviewed factual numbers are presented, speculation is the only observation. Sadly, kissing on the cheek on greeting and leaving of friends, not a good outcome and possibly why the initial viral load seems so high along with the spread.

Vaccines are great.

Right now, we NEVER have cured any virus or EVER produced a vaccine.

No Smallpox …. was never defeated.

Polio

Hepatitis C

Chicken pox

the list goes ON and on.

Nope we are never ever going to create a vaccine or so it seems.

How astoundingly stupid and absurd.

A vaccine works one hopes protects at close to 100% of the time and sometimes lower, but it stops the spread and human to human transmission. It also lowers the severity of the the thing in the case of the Flu if you get a different strain you will likely get it less severe.


Suggesting even with a straight face that a vaccine will not be developed is absurd. INSANE and in the Swine flu version it took some time to identify and map the thing, 10 times as long as it did in 2020, and when deployed it took a mere 4 months with technology to test and wheel out a vaccine. That was 2009. Not with double if not triple the technology and this time being conservative 10 times as many resources thrown at the task.


Do you really think, whilst CV19 related to MERS and SARS not swine flu, that it will take some time beyond 12 months ? It feels that way listening to some idiots they wheel out.


TIME will not be kind to these types.

Social distancing and isolation WORKS all by itself. Let alone a vaccine with 95-99.99% effectiveness and the Chinese with no reason to lie, and every reason NOT to, say they have one almost ready, limited testing and they have 9 at least they have been testing, ready if needed April.

Add to this 3 if not 5 others in very early stages testing a vaccine, IF NEEDED … which with my new personal space and not kissing random girls who beg me walking down the street, I have to say no for now !!

Whilst a lot of rubbish has prevailed via various media outlets. It is 2020.

NOT 1920.

That's a vaccine.


ANTI VIRAL

An Anti Viral is something given to lessen the severity of say Flu such as Tami Flu and its very big brother one gets in hospital which dumb it down in most cases.

NEW Flu and CV19 … we had and have no natural immunity unless your one of the very few who got SARs or MERS and MAY have some limited immunity one might expect to CV19 which is 85% of the same type of thing.


Well …. we humans, in 2020, have actually a long list of things for other viral infections. Anti viral agents, if they get out of hand. Some for bloody infections that actually are also very good at limiting and in some cases totally eradicating a virus if not putting it into suspended animation.

Cervical cancer, eventually, a virus hopefully will be a thing of the past. But a thing like Hepatitis C, HCV is a virus which can be eradicated in 2020. HIV a death sentence in 2020, well, suspended animation and the PREP that limits spread WORKS.

One and on one could go.

I noted, Japanese trug with some testing in China seems to work with CV19. So too a malaria drug in combination with a common penicillin works even better.

Astounding and encouraging.


Extremely. In the meantime, USA and doom and gloom types will prevail.

Here is a decent U tube


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_laH7ZkpLg...dex=16&t=0s


It missed many of the things that appear to hold promise and astoundingly quickly. I personally was not expecting any Anti Viral till after a vaccine which given the scope, and 20 massive drug makers in the vaccine side and some with multiple teams for the bigger ones working on a vaccine, its more than 30 working that side and if anything, 100 or more working on existing anti viral agents or new ones to slow the severity down.


Just a few links

Decent up to date as of now

https://www.drugs.com/condition/covid-19.html


Possible … but early stages …



https://observer.com/2020/02/coronavirus-co...s-drug-testing/

A few more with promise

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/...ronavirus-67052


All this …

sadly likely forgotten in the mayhem if MONDAY trading resumes.

Myopic self interested focus on USA totals infected and a real fear, for ones well being and this has crossed and will cross into hysteria.

Australia, CAN and should act alone as should EU markets should USA not.


If you have read this far, and I am sure some will disagree, some with vigour.

I am merely a person who has faced this type of event, all be it not the same, but not unlike where fear and logic needs time to take hold.


Interviewing a cafe owner who YES needs help as others hit initially, and government SHOULD act and not be stingy with 5% of GDP directly focused not a mere 1% Australia has seen.


Most say Cafe's have seasonal periods and if 3 weeks of 10% customers, in and when we have it contained, well identified, and virtually no new cases LIKE Hong Kong, trade will resume, not at 100% but 50% in a few weeks, then at 75% in 8 weeks. Some things, like airlines, and confidence have taken a hit, but if your suggesting the end of the world, again, we may change, learn a lesson and do things like being more prepared and social norms more careful, life WILL go on. Or for doomsday preppers gulping their cordial down now … it ends.


We are an island and most nations the same. Whilst tourism takes a hit, and reality and short term say 3 month impact occur, we have 10 million plus travelling overseas a year and a mere 8.5 million visitors. Things will return to some normality with I suspect more domestic tourism and less visitors when our borders open again.

Obviously, I have NO idea how this unfolds. I do hold hope and the fact that governments NEED to step in and fill the gaps for a while is astounding our Banks basically gave up 25% likely of their profits …. PRIOR to our bloody government acting is a disgrace. We have been running one of the tightest fiscal policies globally of any nation. NOT just balancing a budget but a surplus was to occur 2020. Obviously not now. Our debt to GDP ratio and NET debt to GDP ratio is astoundingly low lowest in G20 or close to it ?


WAKE UP you DRONGOS in charge. If your wrong and go to 5% of GDP stimulus pre Monday and even 10% supporting retailers and small business, casual workers, HUMANS … that's WHY … you saved. That virtually NO payments have eventuated to business from Bushfire support to date, given nearly 3 months have passed is pathetic.

If global markets DO NOT CLOSE …. and the USA do not see need, it will cause NO HARM … it will likely reduce it. I have no vested interest other than being long equities, and if the ones I own. Top20 ones, fall, so to will our nation and species.




CLOSE the BLOODY EXCHANGES please for 7 days or 14 days. Get your finger out DRONGO and announce something. ANYTHING …. NOW ….




Kind regards and apologies, a prayers and for those impacted and sick. I hope they find some magic combination that works immediately.



Of course, likely …. totally wrong, its a bad dream.


take care


Mark Kahuna.

P.S maybe I rush out and buy mince, forgetting Australia exports 4 times as much as it consumes and we are all becoming cave people ?

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Markets_MUST_PAUSE.pdf ( 66.58K ) Number of downloads: 5

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 05:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838



Markets should PAUSE and shut down.

Howdy,

Having been around for a while, and a fossil in many ways, over the past 37 years involved in markets and most currencies, bonds, equities and commodities at various times, not much is new.

Famous last words. Often things I know are worthless or worth 1% of the heights they reach is not uncommon. Conversely, in times of panic and this time terror, the opposite occurs. People, seeing 50% of value lost illogically panic and sell. Other times when its a worthless asset the stop loss is the correct action to preserve capital.


Right now, either society ends, markets and economies crumble or they DO NOT.

The Billy Joel song, as a former head of trading for one of the worlds largest banks “I go to Extremes” springs to mind at times like this. The words, “so high and so low, with no in between” is so true of most activities on markets today where idiot savant trading dominates.

“I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.”
― Edgar Allan Poe


The CASE and precedent for hitting the pause button on all trading and equity markets is CLEAR.


ALL TRADING OF EQUITES AND DERIVATIVES, Futures. options and others in G20 Markets needs to cease totally prior to Sydney opening and USA market futures opening Monday Morning.

An opinion, but actually a no brainier. As one of few with 35 plus years experience still active in most markets from currencies to bonds and equities to commodities, to see for instance a 10% range in 8 hours on an equity Index USA trading representing 20 trillion or so, is and at best alarming.

Markets have stopped and all trading in Equities, derivatives and futures, options paused post 9/11 . It did so to stop irrational fear. IT also paused for some time after the Bombing of Pearl Harbour late 1941.


This time. It should not even BE a question.

USA sadly dropped the ball declaring the virus defeated at 15 cases. Denied it would hit them due to USA being, well, better or the best in the world is delusional in the extreme.


USA did NOT test in any significant numbers even till early March 2020. CDCC reported a mere 8,000 samples or less, and each sample being 2-3 per person its likely a mere 2,000 actual people were tested up till 10 days ago.

To ramp up to say EU test levels, takes time. CDC produces daily totals and these show snails pace verses what to reach say the 10,000 a day a nation less than 10% the size USA is appears where they are NOW.

Cases have risen, and PANIC … is not even close to what is about to occur.

USA as I type is 19,700 cases for 329 million people. Its testing at about 10% the level it needs to for it to identify those infected and isolate them.

USA equity futures open at 9 am Monday morning if allowed. They have limits at 5% where trading pauses in overnight trading, then at 13% and then at 20% where all trading for a day ceases.

It is sadly and without much doubt, that the reported cases in the USA rise dramatically even by Monday morning and it opens LIMIT down 5%, when trading resumes at 9.30 am NY time or about then it opens LOCKED limit down 13% and when it resumes after a pause, likely it sadly hits 20% down and all trading ceases. NO actual trades will occur in reality. It will go locked limit …

Would it not be prudent to HIT pause …. over illogical, if not idiotic fear ? Prior to this occurring and if allowed, its possible to do the same thing the next day.


Essentially end of everything. Possibly forever for some companies in the panic. They literally cease to exist as idiotic conditions exist.

Irrational fear, in fact, hysteria that has replaced denial is virtually guaranteed. Its actually not unexpected. It seems they are in threat, their very lives according to the doomsday preppers society.


There is HOPE …


This FEAR, is NOT logical. Whilst understandable as a threat to your life, all be it minor if precautions are taken, THIS WILL PASS.


Comparing it to Spanish flu where even oxygen in hospital was not available nor ventilators is, well … absurd. Penicillin not invented or in use for 25 years to stave off infections ….

Whilst if NOT stopped spreading, CV19, the virus can be if allowed and not controlled, deadly. We KNOW what to DO.


PAUSE … deep breath.

This is one Tracker …. Johns Hopkins …

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops...423467b48e9ecf6

And this another,


https://ncov2019.live/


Now after a lot of deep breathing, lets have a look.


China …. 80,000 cases … sadly 3,200 deaths and still some serious cases, 75,000 out of 80,000 cases, CURED or sadly they passed away.

Virtually NO new cases for a nation of 1.3 billion people.


This will of course matter bugger all for the MAYHEM about to hit. USA and its leadership, which has 33% with pathetic health-cover or NONE will be the focus of the next weeks. USA USA USA …

So whilst it took TIME for China to attack the virus, massive testing and isolation/ social distancing WORKS.

Again likely forgotten in the next 2-3 weeks as the financial markets implode as the USA, as it always does, believes its the centre of the Universe.

Lets go to Hong Kong, hit by SARs MERs Avian Flu and Swine Flue issues in the past, with 7 million plus and in close proximity to China, its had a mere 256 cases identified.


Are you getting any sanity back into your perspective ?


DOES … now alerted to the threat, social distancing WORK ?

Of course.

Talk of all activity ceasing forever ? A common topic of the media. Did it happen in post 2003 Sars era ? Or other pandemics ? OF course not stupid.

It will NOT stop what will be likely an implosion IF ALLOWED … markets to open Monday.


USA will and is likely to go troppo.

Its sad numbers, eventually assured with extreme respect and regret to rise and rise till testing reaches around 10 times the current levels at say 100,000 plus tests a day.

Time and time again, idiotic if NOT absurd in the extreme on one side of ignoring a virus replaced with, which is normal doomsday preppers and idiots who have predicted the end of the world time and time again. The weird fascination I have for those shows and low tolerance for their reasoning is now replaced by, a real life event, that, well, if you DONT social distance or ignore a bloody virus that spreads, STUPID people prevail.

Deep breath. If someone comes inside your NOW personal space of 1.5 metres, for NOW, they are to be sprayed with bleach in the face to stop them.


All this aside, the absurdity of what is about to occur and USA is going to go from a slight unease and in some cases terror to total mayhem in the coming week. All of it based, upon little logic.

If sadly the USA hits 100,000 cases identified its a tragedy, much like Italy which is 25% the population and has hit 47,000 cases. Of course one can only wish it was not so and express our deepest sympathies for those lost and well wishes and prayers for those still fighting it.


We, as a species, as opposed to looking with some cynicism via USA media and cable news as the Chinese built hospitals and enforce quarantine and massive testing, many nations, ones already well versed in previous virus events did much the same.

Singapore revealed how far it could track visitors and citizens and anyone, anywhere, via CCTV and mobile signal was identified, read the riot act quarantined and locked away in threat of massive fines and jail and they had, 385 cases despite being a travel hub with about of 5 million locals. I wish, USA had similar outcomes and being 60 times the size, the 20,000 mark will be passed and exceeded in hours.

IT WORKS …. Social distancing.

All forgotten.


MARKETS must close and SHOULD not open Monday.

Predicting LOGIC … I suspect NO trading actually occurs in USA markets EVEN if they remain OPEN …. it locks LIMIT down at 5% …. Trading stops … no trades actually occur … between zero and down 5% … trading resumes and it LOCKS limit 13% .. DOWN … no trading occurs between 5% down and 13% down and reopens after a pause and likely 30,000 USA CV19 cases identified and all sanity and logic left in dust after some, with margin, loose everything and any exit NEEDED …. so the 20% limit down … cascaded into with NO real trading or exit seen. Repeat the next day ….


I will go beyond this. Stupidity and non factual events or actions have one thing that cures them. TIME or Scientific evidence and logic.


Obviously in panic, we ignore … the latter.


CURES, Vaccines and ANTI Viral Agents.

A cure, or treatments, some seem to work and some do not.

Why say Italy has been hit so hard, until scientific data and peer reviewed factual numbers are presented, speculation is the only observation. Sadly, kissing on the cheek on greeting and leaving of friends, not a good outcome and possibly why the initial viral load seems so high along with the spread.

Vaccines are great.

Right now, we NEVER have cured any virus or EVER produced a vaccine.

No Smallpox …. was never defeated.

Polio

Hepatitis C

Chicken pox

the list goes ON and on.

Nope we are never ever going to create a vaccine or so it seems.

How astoundingly stupid and absurd.

A vaccine works one hopes protects at close to 100% of the time and sometimes lower, but it stops the spread and human to human transmission. It also lowers the severity of the the thing in the case of the Flu if you get a different strain you will likely get it less severe.


Suggesting even with a straight face that a vaccine will not be developed is absurd. INSANE and in the Swine flu version it took some time to identify and map the thing, 10 times as long as it did in 2020, and when deployed it took a mere 4 months with technology to test and wheel out a vaccine. That was 2009. Not with double if not triple the technology and this time being conservative 10 times as many resources thrown at the task.


Do you really think, whilst CV19 related to MERS and SARS not swine flu, that it will take some time beyond 12 months ? It feels that way listening to some idiots they wheel out.


TIME will not be kind to these types.

Social distancing and isolation WORKS all by itself. Let alone a vaccine with 95-99.99% effectiveness and the Chinese with no reason to lie, and every reason NOT to, say they have one almost ready, limited testing and they have 9 at least they have been testing, ready if needed April.

Add to this 3 if not 5 others in very early stages testing a vaccine, IF NEEDED … which with my new personal space and not kissing random girls who beg me walking down the street, I have to say no for now !!

Whilst a lot of rubbish has prevailed via various media outlets. It is 2020.

NOT 1920.

That's a vaccine.


ANTI VIRAL

An Anti Viral is something given to lessen the severity of say Flu such as Tami Flu and its very big brother one gets in hospital which dumb it down in most cases.

NEW Flu and CV19 … we had and have no natural immunity unless your one of the very few who got SARs or MERS and MAY have some limited immunity one might expect to CV19 which is 85% of the same type of thing.


Well …. we humans, in 2020, have actually a long list of things for other viral infections. Anti viral agents, if they get out of hand. Some for bloody infections that actually are also very good at limiting and in some cases totally eradicating a virus if not putting it into suspended animation.

Cervical cancer, eventually, a virus hopefully will be a thing of the past. But a thing like Hepatitis C, HCV is a virus which can be eradicated in 2020. HIV a death sentence in 2020, well, suspended animation and the PREP that limits spread WORKS.

One and on one could go.

I noted, Japanese trug with some testing in China seems to work with CV19. So too a malaria drug in combination with a common penicillin works even better.

Astounding and encouraging.


Extremely. In the meantime, USA and doom and gloom types will prevail.

Here is a decent U tube


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_laH7ZkpLg...dex=16&t=0s


It missed many of the things that appear to hold promise and astoundingly quickly. I personally was not expecting any Anti Viral till after a vaccine which given the scope, and 20 massive drug makers in the vaccine side and some with multiple teams for the bigger ones working on a vaccine, its more than 30 working that side and if anything, 100 or more working on existing anti viral agents or new ones to slow the severity down.


Just a few links

Decent up to date as of now

https://www.drugs.com/condition/covid-19.html


Possible … but early stages …



https://observer.com/2020/02/coronavirus-co...s-drug-testing/

A few more with promise

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/...ronavirus-67052


All this …

sadly likely forgotten in the mayhem if MONDAY trading resumes.

Myopic self interested focus on USA totals infected and a real fear, for ones well being and this has crossed and will cross into hysteria.

Australia, CAN and should act alone as should EU markets should USA not.


If you have read this far, and I am sure some will disagree, some with vigour.

I am merely a person who has faced this type of event, all be it not the same, but not unlike where fear and logic needs time to take hold.


Interviewing a cafe owner who YES needs help as others hit initially, and government SHOULD act and not be stingy with 5% of GDP directly focused not a mere 1% Australia has seen.


Most say Cafe's have seasonal periods and if 3 weeks of 10% customers, in and when we have it contained, well identified, and virtually no new cases LIKE Hong Kong, trade will resume, not at 100% but 50% in a few weeks, then at 75% in 8 weeks. Some things, like airlines, and confidence have taken a hit, but if your suggesting the end of the world, again, we may change, learn a lesson and do things like being more prepared and social norms more careful, life WILL go on. Or for doomsday preppers gulping their cordial down now … it ends.


We are an island and most nations the same. Whilst tourism takes a hit, and reality and short term say 3 month impact occur, we have 10 million plus travelling overseas a year and a mere 8.5 million visitors. Things will return to some normality with I suspect more domestic tourism and less visitors when our borders open again.

Obviously, I have NO idea how this unfolds. I do hold hope and the fact that governments NEED to step in and fill the gaps for a while is astounding our Banks basically gave up 25% likely of their profits …. PRIOR to our bloody government acting is a disgrace. We have been running one of the tightest fiscal policies globally of any nation. NOT just balancing a budget but a surplus was to occur 2020. Obviously not now. Our debt to GDP ratio and NET debt to GDP ratio is astoundingly low lowest in G20 or close to it ?


WAKE UP you DRONGOS in charge. If your wrong and go to 5% of GDP stimulus pre Monday and even 10% supporting retailers and small business, casual workers, HUMANS … that's WHY … you saved. That virtually NO payments have eventuated to business from Bushfire support to date, given nearly 3 months have passed is pathetic.

If global markets DO NOT CLOSE …. and the USA do not see need, it will cause NO HARM … it will likely reduce it. I have no vested interest other than being long equities, and if the ones I own. Top20 ones, fall, so to will our nation and species.




CLOSE the BLOODY EXCHANGES please for 7 days or 14 days. Get your finger out DRONGO and announce something. ANYTHING …. NOW ….




Kind regards and apologies, a prayers and for those impacted and sick. I hope they find some magic combination that works immediately.



Of course, likely …. totally wrong, its a bad dream.


take care


Mark Kahuna.

P.S maybe I rush out and buy mince, forgetting Australia exports 4 times as much as it consumes and we are all becoming cave people ?

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Markets_MUST_PAUSE.pdf ( 66.58K ) Number of downloads: 5

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Sep 17 2019, 11:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Agreed ...

A pox to them all.


Nuclear stuff ... well EU ... 28 EU nations ... China and Russia thought the nuclear deal was being upheld.In some ways, Iran made the mistake of taking USA embassy hostage ...Took back its assets , Oil ones which the Shah took when he came in ... lost when he went out.
I listened to Dastiari the other nights who his parents supported the overthrow of the shah ... he was born there .. went back recently and spoke negatively about the current regime. I looked, being curious and he left AGE 2 ... came to Australia age 4 from Iran.
Complex stuff and humans, me least of all ...

That his parents left prior to bloody meat grinder of the Iran Iraq war and the horror of being attacked by chemical weapons and nerve agents when Iraq started loosing say in 1985 has made them who and what they are, Iran.
They begged for help ... to the UN .... 350 separate incidents .... between 1985 and 1990 ... well documented.
What they are today, the nation, is shaped and forged in this.


Ignoring other issues. Saudi Arabia bankrolled this Iraq invasion to the tune of about 20 billion back in 1980 ..
Not being of the faith, the threat of a democratic but religious based democracy where state and church are not separated is a direct threat to the Monarchy of Saudi Arabia as well as places like Kuwait and Bahrain. Bahrain actually has a majority of Shia faith ... like Iran but is ruled by Sunni Muslims as is Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.


None of it good, or pleasant or easily solved with a terrible history the last 50 or so years. Strangely they lived in peace at times for 1,000 years and sometimes with Antichrist and Jewish minorities. Iran was actually friendly to Israel when the Shah was there, but he was a puppet installed by the USA and Uk identical to Noriaga in Panama or say MArcos in the Philippines.


None of it much to do about fair, or equal treatment for things. One set of rules for one nation and another for the other. Its ok for one thing to happen to one group and not to the other.

I sadly suspect that outside Israel, all the rest quite happily will be discarded and if you can get them to fight each other, rather than the Arab states who have joined together occasional against Israel, that too is fine according to USA policy.
Venezuela and say Cuba still being treated the same way. Meanwhile we now have a massive nuclear club outside the USA. I am not too sure since Libya almost had a fully assembled bomb and handed it over and was not even suspected that it had one under development that they have any real idea about who or what Iran has. Lots of stuff missing from Soviet states when they split and some of the missiles Iran has copied and improved are from those regions.


Yep a pox to them all ... but ... being human, I wish only for good stuff and people to live in peace and follow whatever beliefs they wish.
Peace .... and kindness seems obsolete and naive I suppose.Where this ends, given Trumps views about the deal contradicted inspectors on the ground and he did the identical thing ... with Iraq, they even payed ball and let USA inspection teams in with no warning in 2002-3 ? ... still that was not enough. We were told, the world was told they had WMD's and they did not.

Playing ball, Does not work. Saddam was executed, Ghaffi in Libya even played ball, but was invaded and he died with a bayonet in his behind. Strange as it sounds Libya had the best healthcare and education system in the whole of Africa prior to the UN led invasion and bombing. Not suggesting HE ... or Iran or Saddam Hussein is or are saints.


Iran ... its already endured a lot since it kicked out the Shah and not being Arabs, not speaking Arabic ... seems like most things totally lost on the USA powers to be. The list of things that, well would ... make even a reasonable person or nation take very drastic action occurred many years ago in there case.


As I said, they spend less of there GDP on defense than even Australia does !! I think its 1.5% ... and its more the type of weapon that is meant to STOP of slow someone invading or make them think very hard about bombing them. Basically a bloody buzzsaw if provoked and whilst USA claimed some action by them, they are ranked by the military experts either number 12 or number 14 in terms of dangerous armies. that is saying something when the top spots go to USA, Russia, China, Japan then France, Germany, UK .... Iran is NOT far behind and scary if provoked. Really scary. Sadly with I think some good cause after running to the United nations after WMD's were used on IT .... 350 times ... and the USA decided to shoot a civilian airliner down .. blow up most of its offshore oil rigs and so on around 1990.


Sadly, this latest stuff, is what it is. I doubt its very much over and Yemen, separate from Iran whilst not even in the same league, the revelation that 10 drones can wipe out 50% of the oil capacity of the worlds largest producer for a while is not about to stop them from launching more drones. At $15,000 per drone and say $20,000 with the rockets ... so 200k in drones takes 5 million barrels of oil a day offline for say 3 months, and needing to rebuild so 100 million ? The toll on Saudi Arabia and its already stretched finances is not a good one.

Roughly 25 billion lost revenue ?

And the USA and global equity markets due to quite obvious plunge protection team support don't move ? Sit 1% below all time highs ?

These imbeciles I thought were insane late 2007 reporting GDP growth in the USA at 5% plus when clearly Merrill Lynch had lost its capital and Citi already had reported loosing at least 5 years of profits, this ... given the extremities we now reside in terms of valuation, in the face of extreme international issues with Trade, not just China and USA but EU.USA ... Japan Korea ... and then this festering stuff ... India/Pakistan ,,, and not even a blink of risk aversion added to the S+p 500 ? Looming USA budget issues ,,, a fiscally broken system with now 1.055 trillion deficit and 22.6 trillion debt or 106% of GDP and exponentially getting worse.



There are about 4 other massive issues as well, so Iran is somewhat a distraction, irrelevant in many ways to the underlying festering situation of policies that cannot continue. USA in 2023 will be 120% debt to GDP and collect a mere 30% of Tax to GDP and a mere 13% federally v 120% debt to GDP on that side. Not too worried about the rest of the govt debt overall, as they collect 17% of GDP via state and local and city stuff and its about 20% of GDP on top of that pile.

Yes lets ignore it all.

When 5% of the global oil market is taken out for say 3 months, maybe more, likely more conflict in the region as well, and the market DOES NOT REACT ... I know something is seriously wrong.
Its broken.

If I say was going for a loan and went you know how I said I earn 100k a year, its only 20k, and you know how I said I have no debt, I actually owe 300k on a 20k income, would the bank still lend me 200 k ? In 2007 they would, and did, as long as I got my commission.

Either we respect rules and risk learnt over the past 5,000 years, or we don't.
Strange times and whilst not really a pox on them all, hoping for the best, the outlook is and was bad pre Trump, its far worse now. Why not seize another ship on the high seas. or threaten to invade North Korea or Venezuela or some other nation. Mr Morrison better behave and roll over . Turnball got hung up on and had to wait 90 minutes on an aircraft carrier for Trump to finally decide to see him.

Marcon at least told USA to get nicked and Google even paid 1 billion Euros ... about 5% of what the tech boys owe France for the last decade.
Enjoy. Maybe a new all time high ... excuse ? I have no idea and at times one is advised not to try and estimate stupidity because it will always surprise you.


Still ... my technical and other models tell me the USA tries that 3,165 level on the S+P 500 .... but my brain is going. Well ... the risks are peaking and likely more than I have ever seen in my 35 plus years. The fiscal train wreck and potential and impossible to avoid things in the 3-5 year time-frame assure 30% if not 50% on the USA side. At some stage the USA does get universal healthcare and 200 billion in profits on that sector become at best 20 billion. Multiply that by a P/E of say 20 .... and you have HALF the 50% in one move.


For now, rah rah rah .... to have the plunge protection team being used in times like this , a mere 1% from all time highs speaks volumes about Trumps way he ranks his performance and thats via stock market performance. Sadly, fiscally, its a black hole. As to global trade, free trade, relations, tensions and lots of other things, relationships will never be the same again. China will never be able to rely upon USA for anything. It must become independent in all aspects of technology and is doing so at a scary pace.


Enuf ... too hard ... sorry but thinking out loud and its not making any sense to me, or any history I have ever seen. Lessons with the same outcome every time, every nation that has done some things, the market may continue for a while, the nation or empire keeps going and then, like gravity and a drone that supposedly was not over Iran but funnily enuf when shot down the debris landed in Iranian territory, these things end the same way.


Enjoy ... will go hug someone I love or tell someone the same.


Mark
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Sep 17 2019, 07:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Fair enough ....
I was speaking of intended Genocide as objective as has been stated By Saudi Arabia
Warsaw Ghetto was cut off, much like Yemen ...
I don't think a single one you mentioned is an issue.
I believe I have covered why Shia may actually not be fond of the Jewish people via the occupation of Palestine and actions against Shia Muslims in Palestine.

Each to their own. Because they object ... they must be killed.
Bravo ....

Irredentisma policy of advocating the restoration to a country of any territory formerly belonging to it.
Gee .... I thought that was their right.
My mistake.
That Saudi Arabia if anything is more active in their TOTAL hatred of the Jewish people and bankrolled not one but two massive attacks against Israel is a sad fact.

That the number 3 and 4 most holy sites now lie inside Israel is an issue for both Shia and Sunni Muslims of which the invading of their holy Mosque for the last 2 years in the last week of Ramadan has occurred only makes the whole religion based hatred even more an open wound for any Muslim.
What a bunch of fun.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Sep 17 2019, 05:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Just a few adds to the above.

Yemen has actually conducted over 100 attacks via drones in the past inside Saudi Arabia.
Some drones shot down previously . clearly ... VERY Clearly ... they were made in a garage and domestically IN YEMEN.

Why ? Look closely and the wires are not even soldered, they are joined with cheap insulating wire.
I would also add, there have been previous attacks on Saudi Oil infrastructure.
Whilst its nice to pretend, Iran was involved which maybe it is, the reality is Saudi Arabia has stated clearly its intent is to exterminate all Houthi of the Shia Muslim faith in Yemen. All of them. Around 30 million are in dire straights and 10 million starving.

Only analogy in history is the 1943 Warsaw Ghetto uprising where 300,000 mainly Jewish people rose up against the Nazis. That was 1% the size of what is going on.

USA maintains a total air blockade on the nation. So too a sea blockade where everything is blocked. All bridges and roads into and out of the nation Yemen also cut off.

Other than the Saudis and their other Sunni Muslim nations who joined them and 15,000 USA mercenaries .... the only nations directly supporting the USA in this in any way are the UK ... and NOW Australia.

I do wonder, and the tape of the Saudi Journalist who was murdered in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey ... I have not listened as its too disturbing to hear a man going " your suffocating me" prior to that occurring and him being chopped up.

Yemen ... is ... 300,000 or so dead this year likely according to the United Nations which the USa just slashed its financial support for and no longer feels its accountable for any action by its military anywhere and pulled also out of various bodies meant to protect against soldiers getting out of hand.

Whilst perfect world, there would be no war, that sadly is a dream.

9/11 was an awful act of state sponsored or protected terrorism which killed 3,000 Americans.
In the Iran Iraq war, Iraq, with full support of the UK and USA did not a thing when Iran was the target of 350 chemical warfare and biological weapon attacks. this is on even Wikipedia and the killed and injured were well above Yemens total for even this year. UK even provided the chemicals used to make the agents.

Post 9/11 the Middle east has been torn asunder. Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria just to name a few. If the total deaths is under 3 million or 1000 times the 9/11 amount I would be astounded.

Since Yemen and its genocide seems to be missing from the debate as to WHY .... if Yemen were to trow a tantrum of similar size, would say 30 million seem to many ... or 300 million dead since that's 1,000 times the size.

This is just perspective and whilst not a fan of Iran and some of its policies, where is it allowed to stand up being the minority Muslim Shia faith and say here is some food and arms for self protection ?

I have no idea. too hard.

It is alarming and only can pray for a peaceful SANE resolution and we all live in peace.

Some of the claims by the USA that Iran was involved or launched cruise missiles are, well, absurd for the Cruise missile aspect. One sadly may learn WHAT a cruise missile does the hard way, if they decide to attack Iran. A cruise missile verses a soft non fortified target or building uses normally cluster munitions and they are baseball sized things around 5kg and the missile contains 40 or MORE of them.

The attack had 19 separate distinct HITs .... so suggesting even ONE was shot is sadly absurd.

My favorite claim by the USA in relation to Iran was when a USA warship shot down an Iranian airliner 1989 ? with I think 289 people on board. The CLAIM by George Bush Senior, now dead, was the plane was approaching the warship, descending and on the ID it was squawking it was claimed it was a military one. Upon the investigation which occurred .... the plan was rising, going the opposite way to the direction of the USA warship and was clearly squawking via radio an Identification as an Airliner.

George Bush senior was asked about this about 10 years ago, did he regret it ? Or wish to apologize ? And he said NO to both.

Not sure the current USA regime is any better. Nor sadly Australia.

Last ... the drones, ones that can go 900 km ... cost a mere $15,000- ... most components are made in China. Scary world and now its been revealed the Achilles heel of the matter, sadly not going to improve.

Iran, USA mocked them and their capabilities and so on, only to have a drone costing 300 million which they believed invulnerable to be knocked out of the sky and the wreckage which due to gravity drops straight down the recovered and displayed. USA claimed of course the incident occurred in international airspace, which .... again ... shows the total BS going on.

Missile wise, Iran is scary and if attacked will retaliate I sadly suspect many times over.

On Markets, a JOKE.
Seriously .... NO drop in USA or global equities ?
Either I know not a thing about history or risk or the market is now without any humans running things.
When say 9/11 occurred the market dropped a lot.
This, if anything is potentially WORSE .... a delusional one term president facing likely prosecution if he looses in 2020 ....

Supporting the regime that, well makes some actions of WW2 look tame ?

Sadly, and not to be alarmist, Iran has had little choice but to be proactive in its own defense. As to say supporting the minority Houthi in Yemen of the same faith, all be it NOT with any material support since the USA closed all Sea and Air routes and Saudi's all land based support is gone ...

Strange world. Sadly so. Here the graves of those who fought gallantly in Gallipoli and so many other causes to stop this sort of thing, we are on the OTHER SIDE ....

Help I cant breathe either not sure iof its the stench of USA or the Saudi person with a plastic bag over my head.

Be wary of markets. Risk adverse is always the best option at all time highs let alone when they ignore ... IGNORE the destruction of 50% of the oil capacity of the worlds largest oil producer.

Possibly the strangest and most staged response I have ever seen in my life. Not suggesting panic .... but, gee ... all time highs as the foundations just had one leg removed let alone the other structural issues.

All so Trump could tear up a deal that was working with the nuclear issue for Iran.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Sep 15 2019, 01:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Here we go again ....
I note drone attacks in Saudi being claimed by as done the Houthi from YEMEN ... are being blamed on another nation IRAN. USA evangelist ... secretary of state Pompeo .... just as bad as the now departed Bolton .... accused IRAN.

He and Pence are really nutty fringe evangelical types who talk about the rapture and end of things. Pence actually makes Trump appear sane, maybe thats why he is vice President .... over and above Trump needed support of these types in the USA in their Anti non Christians and anti gay anti abortion and anti non white policies.

War ... WAR WAR ... Trump gets his wish.
Heaven Help us.

Iran, spends less per GDP than even Australia on defense. Its defense is NOT to attack or invade other nations but has massive capabilities as I already covered.

Its history is shameful what the USA, UK and Australia who blindly backs them ... 350 chemical and nerve gas attacks ignored by the UN ... Verified I might add. 100,000 killed and 250,000 still dealing with this 30 years latter !!

USA bottom line has managed to produce 5 million more barrels of oil a day via Tar sands and Fracking. Break even for this expensive non traditional oil is well over $50- a barrel. Hence why Libya was green-lighted ... then Venezuela and then Iran embargo ... sadly still a glut of oil.

Lets go to war !!

China needs a test bed for its 5th generation weapons .... and Iran is ingenious in copying it.

Sadly, with extreme regret ... if Iran is actually fired upon the reaction will be ... stunning. Not tit for tat, it will be using one of the maps I showed and then add every port, every oil field, every refinery in the region and every tanker in the gulf and Trump will have the distraction he wants and an oil price that will make his mates some profit.

World has gone mad, meanwhile our fathead PM will follow into the gates of hell.




USA making idiotic claims and we this time are directly supporting the genocide in Yemen .... Well done Fathead PM Morrison !!



Houthis in Yemen, blockaded by aid and sea totally by the USA, being hunted on the ground ... by Saudi and death-toll the UN estimates via famine and outright death in 2019 .... 300,000-.

Australia was silent on this, only UK and USA supported it and 28 EU nations vocal in ther horror.

Now we are supporting this action directly !! AUSTRALIA.

On this recent oil attack ....
"These attacks are our right, and we warn the Saudis that our targets will keep expanding," spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement read out on the rebels' Al Masirah TV.


"We have the right to strike back in retaliation to the air strikes and the targeting of our civilians for the last five years."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/dron...4051900472.html

On Houthi TV in Yemen ...

Then we have mike Pompeo CLAIMING Iran was the nation that did it.

Not even a bird can enter Yemen since 2015.

The attacks via 10 drones were not USA style ones which are flown 20,000 km and rain hell from above but commercial TOYS costing less than 1k each likely with a small explosive strapped to them operated on the outskirts of these Oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Pence the vice President is likely to claim Peal Harbor was attacked by the Chinese in 1941 and then Trump that it was Russia bombing the UK in the battle of Britain in 1939.

These people now in power in the USA and their lackeys UK and sadly Australia now ... are DELUSIONAL.

Why are we there ?

Why are we supporting Saudi Arabia in its efforts and goal of total genocide of the Shia people in Yemen ?

That Iran is mainly Shia Muslim faith and sympathies and supports opposition of such a genocide is only to be expected. As to material support, IT post 2015 does not occur. All ports most roads and certainly all air traffic is either totally blocked or searched.

Sadly the excuse Trump needed, he has yet another one all be it totally and easily seen as total rubbish. One nation after last week 100 innocent civilians were bombed and KILLED in Yemen, reacts and admits it was them ... sending back presents to Saudi Arabia and we have totally delusional things coming out of the USA Secretary of States mouth as to who did it .... worse from Pence and Trump ... threatening Iran again ?

These are Pompeo's exact words .... Via twitter ... if one can believe his method.

Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/mbs-...4192436368.html

Yes that's why they, the Houthi in Yemen, admitted it on their local TV ... YOU DUMMY !!

Chief dummy TRUMP ... is silent on twitter, so far, which ... I suspect means nothing good. FATHEAD PM Morrison is our own !!

Shame on you. Shame on Australia.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 28 2019, 05:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi Tom ...
yep well ... as always scratching my head.
His racist rants one thing.Telling other nations how to NOT tax USA based companies is another.Healthcare issue ... is something that will change but ... when 2020 or 2024 ?

For now, we go up I suspect via USA fed cutting rates which well ... will have NO real impact on the lower 80% because the main part of their finance is via credit cards or car loans for the lower 60% and they will not move. Conversely. those who own shares, well that will drive asset prices higher as yet again no interest.
Amazing to see 30 year German bonds near zero and 10 years at Minus 0.4% .Whilst USA bonds much much higher and with good cause, its going to be some time to see rates higher so again ... one of the many reasons the USA is up here and well ... we follow.
2020 Trump re-election appears like a mess. Fox news is a disgrace and so openly right and Trump and whites only club, its chilling to look back at the antics of the 1920's in the USA and 30's ... along with Germany but the USA back then was sadly just like Germany. Not much has changed and for now, thankfully the Jewish people seem to think they are KKK club members in 2019. They have copped enough.
Sadly, KKK hates everyone and each little group has its own Oligachy interests and Tech Boys, who pay no tax, Jewish, fund 30% of all donations which skews things one way, drug companies and healthcare 25% , Oil and gas 20% Banking 20% and from time to time its the large employers who rise up to stop people demanding higher wages, or the Las Vegas crowd, again Jewish and Sheldon who chips in millions ...

what the vast majority and a landslide is over 60% in any election but 75% of people want universal healthcare, sadly the powers to be bribed in the USA and delusional number one, call them socialists and communists for wanting what We have and 65 other nations a lower cost healthcare system which covers close to 100% in basic cover.
I struggle with how many are being ignored and loosing 15 years of life, so ... turnips like trump or other cretins who pay no tax can add to their pile.

I was wrong, in 2008 that they would do something about it. Had to do something about it. They just eroded the pensions, slashed the cover of the already awful healthcare free over 65 cover and then gave themselves a tax cut.
Strange but we, Australia and every other nation by NOT actually demanding tax be paid by USA mainly companies but a long list in other tax havens are actually enabling this.
Sad we are so weak in leadership, afraid of the man with the wig and fake tan. Oh and his minions .... and what a bunch they are !!

Strange times. UP for now ... its the only way ... as much as it is absurd ... low interest rates, no tax paid makes P/E look good for USa and we follow ... and have done so for now.
Have fun



  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 27 2019, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Well MAGA ...
NOT .... Fed muzzled ... USA democracy is purchased and debt ceiling a joke, a record deficit in the best economy EVER ?
Really ?..
France went get stuffed Facebook paying a mere 1% tax rate when its margin is 45% on sales ... Trump responds like a Facebook exec and now threatening tariffs and on wine ? because a nation wants to charge tax on profits generated on its soil ?

Meanwhile, USA hit lowest birth rate, GDP numbers all revised down and even then they are meaningless totally ... as the lower 50% now have negative net worth and the lower 80% even the upper middle class ... thats the 60% to 80% wealth bracket share a mere 7% of overall wealth.
But what drives markets, for now, interest rates, mean it in the USA likely goes now ... we have passed that first milestone of 3,000 on the S+P 500 to likely 3,165.
Outside this, USA could lower rates to MINUS 3% and it still would not improve the lower 80% real economy. This move has nothing to do with anything other than the top 1% ...
As for nations now shedding 1-2% in GDP in not collected tax .... Like France .... Like Australia ... we slowly get strangled. Our nations and NOT bein g hite AMERICANS in the top 1% we are ... well irrelevant and if we complain as France did and imposed a tax to try and collect some value out of the likes of Google and Facebook and Microsoft has not actually gone far enough. When you need 25% PAID on company tax profits and your getting 1% on turnover so about 10% of what you should .... they are stuffed and they must collect more tax there and in fact tighten to compensate.
Eventually, someone will blink.
.
Will it be prior to Trump bombing Iraq ? Or as he mentioned stopping Afghanistan via nuclear weapons or maybe North Korea ? Or Venezuela ? Then of course 2020 and he is unlikely to be re=elected despite FOX news efforts, ... will he actually give up office even if beaten ?

He just gave yet another speech where he claimed fake immigrant voters rigged the 2016 elections and despite investigations in 40 states NONE of this was seen .... NONE of it..
As to telling France what can do, its same for Mexico and Canada and China and Germany and UK and Australia and so on.
Meanwhile USA came 11th out of 11 lowest of OECD nations in healthcare the bug developed ones, came 37th on World Health ranks and likely about 100 if they used the real numbers. As always a cost of the the wealth flowing to the top, the numbers on Medicaid and emergency healthcare in the USA at records up from 20 million to now 80 million. That is a 15 year old with a box of aspirin for your cancer. Its rated at 30% of even the not so good UK NHS health service ....

Bliss .... then again media has every second add in the USA either a defence contractor or healthcare company don t expect any media on it.

Our market, ASX 200 via rate cuts only going one way. UP .... like the USA for now. Sadly USA eventually the debt size and fact their population is NOW not growing with NET negative illigal immigration and ultra low legal immigration and record low interest rates, coupled with rising over 65's retiring ... who is going to pay for the 25 trillion or over 200,000 USD per person debt the Federal govt holds when the lower 80% average income is a mere $32,000- a year ?

Nothing new in this other than the release valve is HUMANS and the fact that 80% of people end up on emergency Free Medicaid in old age, all assets gone, BROKE .... has impacts on life expectancy but to say Mr Zuckerberg or Mr BEzos who the latter has run a company for 25 years that recently hit 1 trillion market cap and has NEVER paid a cent EVER ... in corporate tax, never paid a dividend, something is either wrong with ME .... or with them.
Even the upper middle class, who YES retire with some assets, but being sick in the USA is massively expensive and more and more gaps of not covered and costs for even simple medications at 4 times anywhere else in the world, even they end life on the whole BROKE.
That said. the top 40% ... are in the USA living as one might expect to normal OECD life expectations and the top 10% as always live OECD best plus about 5 years so to 89 .... the USA average is officially 76.8 years .... its lost 7 years post 1985 v Australia let alone 25 OECD top nations ... if one takes out the top 40% of USA and uses a real average life expectancy of the USA not some fiction so about 75 .... the lower 80% and their life expectancy just hit 69 or about the same as Ethiopia or Sudan...
As always a cost .... if one bothers to look.hhhh
USA policy post 1980 when political donations started and now run the goverment and corporate tax is now 30% of what it was. I am serious and even in 2000 USA collected 207 billion corporate tax and the economy was 45% of what it was now. So in other words its lost HALF .... post 2000.

Of course, to say Facebook who actually claimed 5 billion tax deductions for shares granted to Zuckerburg and fellow board members at $10 and when exercised at $120 share price ... they got a deduction for the difference between the two .... $110- and didn't have to pay tax.
Silly Mr Macron in France expecting Facebook to pay tax .... THEY will de=friend you !!
..
Amazing the dictator who ... runs the world now ... is openly threatening France for actually going .... well ... we are merely asking for a share of what we already paid for via the R+D deductions that are already built into the NET profit which of course Facebook paid NO tax to anyone for 60% of the world business it does ...

Silly me ... this will work out fine. That is if Trump doesn't decide to invade North Korea first or ... as Bolton said, nuke them First ... I am sure China will not mind a nuclear cloud over them. They reacted so well last time USA invaded and only 3 million Chinese troops sent McCauther back to the 45th ....

Ahhh bliss .... but for now ... USA goes up.So too do we .... based upon interest rates. Our Govt here, has the wrong policy and balancing the budget with 2% inflation and 3% GDP growth ....we could spend 5% just like the USA but not on tax breaks to the top 1% or 0.1% ... and get things moving. Even 2% of that.'
Since our debt to GDP is a mere 30% NET ... including RBA assets and Future fund, its not as though we are ... even close to USA at 107% of GDP right now or EU average of 94% of GDP ...
We basically are being very loose via RBA policy and then doing the opposite via fiscal policy with that idiot fathead Morrison and Flckerberg even more moronic as treasurer. Yes it makes Sense to have the handbrake on via fiscal policy and the accelerator down via monetary and 1% rates.
Then again, bigger scheme of things, its an aside likely to be irrelevant as the USA seems to think its 1875 and they lead the world. Well since the population globally is 7 times larger and the USA, even with 325 million, only 100 million REAL consumers left .... all the rest on some sick death march of low wages and medical blackmail .... the sad fact that China alone has 700 milloio0n well funded middle class AND the EU with 300 million WELL Funded ... middle class and another 400 million around the world, USA with a mere 100 million relevant all be it mainly racist selfish for a lot of them, will not dictate to the rest of the developed and rich outside world for too much longer.ass
Either Trump exits, and hopefully not Biden as he is likely another bribed corporate fool .... but eventually the rest of the world cannot afford to have such a leak of tax via Google, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon and a long list of others, mainly USA based .... draining the welfare of the world at will.
It is sadly that serious. Given up on Morrison and his boot-licking is a disgrace.
China and India both said get stuffed as well as so many others, which, is evolving onto what the world will look like in the not too distant future. EU and 27 nations same thing.

USA first and stuff the rest ? Or Stuff USA ... or should I say the top 1% and also the racist openly so of late the whole USA and send her back to 3 out of 4 born in the USA ... all women ... so they should shut up according to facist pig with wig .... and my my ... their skin is NOT white !! and SOME have different religious beliefs . Golly ...
kkk

We are in the 1920's for USA where 3 million Klan followers .... about 5% of the adult population were card carrying members. Trumps daddy got arrested at one Klan rally, Gates father ... well he was an Eugenicist a well documented white ONLY one and Buffett his daddy a Birch Society follower who among other things was a holocaust denier .... Buffet supposedly had a normal upbringing if you read some books, but ... well a fiction ... Daddy was one of the original Senators and far right even of Trump ... far far ultra right and America First party member.
Yipeee ....
hmmm

you stupid ignorant French person expecting Facebook to pay tax !!

Meanwhile Our PM ... seen stuffing 6 pies down his throat at the footie ...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 13 2019, 05:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

cap raising of 57m shares at 11c to pros and instos only..... about 4% dilution for current investors in coming AGM 14 Nov 18

Really ... the above was one of the previous posts ....
11 cents and it hit ? 2.8 cents or was it lower.Now it being ramped from inside its 6 cents .... HALF what it was 8 months ago ?

is it back to 11 cents it was 8 months ago ?
I did look at the accounts and its a train wreck ... why are they paying close to 2 million a year to two lawyers ?
I suspect it would need to raise sales 10 fold ... if not more to come even close to break even.
Better bet would be Powerball ...

Oh from the above ..5.7mio raised late last year .... nearly ALL GONE >>>> all gone down the black hole.

I cant wait for their accounts for end of June ...
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 10 2019, 06:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy,
yep agree with all you said.MFG did need to alter its structure at the beginning, they did so ... but yes looked not so great for shareholders. That was a long time ago.
I hold no envy .... u would laugh ....
My concern, a well founded one, is rules that were adhered to during the beginning and for a long time have gone out the window.Time will tell on the likes of say Amazon with a 11 billion profit , NO TAX paid, no dividend ever .... at 1 trillion market cap. So for me a P/E of 100.
Whilst I don't think he holds this dog .... he holds many others who pay ... less than 10% globally in tax and evade ... it ... and are fully valued on a NPAT price and if ... which is a big if ... these people have to pay any tax to Australia, or UK or EU ... profits will get slammed since they pay 2% or less tax to Aust and less to the EU ...
I have shall we say, concerns about China and the antics of Trump. Well founded ones.When you have a global trading partner who imposes tariffs and even sanctions ... and outlaws a competitors tech for what 27 EU nations thought was BS ...

Well ... India aint ever going to become a customer in any meaningful way if they ever get there, China has no choice but to produce HOME grown competing tech and ... well sell it as well to the rest of the world.
For now .... saving grace of the funds performance is one thing only .... ONE ... holding a lot of these things that even if the world went perfectly are fully priced for 2030 ...
Fully.
Adding to this, at all time highs ?
Much like the bank Hamish worked for ... Deutsche and him being very senior there, they just split in half ... a bad bank and a good bank and neither side likely to goon without more funds.
The new CEO ... Brett Cairns, better ... but it seems to be a place run by a Trump like personality.
Maybe the market goes to a zillion gazillion ... but ... with the lower 50% in the USA now having NO NET worth and in fact negative net worth .... the lower 80% and whole middle class with a mere 7% of the wealth down from a not so good 24% in 1980 .... but falling off the cliff post 2000 and even sharper post 2010 ...
who is going to buy the things the USA clowns make ? China with their new social credits system will just put 500 minus points on buying any USA made product which means ... no travel ... no bank account ... no property and well ... sorry ... USA has done it to itself.
Going to be an amusing few years.
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 7 2019, 08:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hmm ...
well if you go back to page one of this thread ...Someone ... was a big fan of them ... at $1-

Now ? At $55- less so.
Nothing like sell low and buy into all time highs. that's what the fund is doing. Going from 18% cash to likely 8% at the all time high ....

I tend as most know to NOT love things when they go ... nuts and reduce ....


I am well aware of the activities of this company, its funds and in the case of MFG ... very poor record on macro issues and terrible action when investments dont work out. Most would reduce ... say tesco but he added, most say would reduce IBM when results did not match expected ... nope ... just the erosion of an index on fire via no tax paid anywhere to anyone ... covers all sins.

Holding 18% cash whilst market rallied 60% from 1800 to 2900 in the S+P ... and a whopping 30% in tech companies ... in 1999 ... went well.
What was 4.8% holding in IBM from i think 2014 went so well ... then again ... others Microsoft doubled ... the other did not rise.
I am not even sure the blind can see how wise it is not to be adding to things at the highs. I cant wait to see the end of June cash balance likely he has managed to buy 10% at the all time highs.


Congrats .... I do expect ... S+P to likely go a bit higher, but its not fruitful predicting stupidity either side.
Meanwhile tech side, Trump actions ... the most R+D staff on the planet by a factor of 5 ... are inside China ... and its now faced with no Android ... no chips or the threat of ... and well planes with shitty software ... I do note amusingly Boeing which also sells defense stuff rallied 50% ....

I would, well ... be blinking ... not adding and ... well ... wondering if someone will demand Google or Apple or Chevron or a long list pay tax overseas let alone inside the USA.

Or maybe ... well what China being forced even to drop Microsoft from all systems will do with its home grown version likely costing 10% of the other ?

Its like my faithful Moterola flip phone a digital that ... cost $3,000 plus ... was great but then they announced digital and it lasted 3 years .... now .... well its normal to pay $1,000- for some for a phone every year. I do prefer ... the $300- one that does an I5 Apple equiv and has a battery life double that one.
Then again, I know not a thing .... Hail Hamish .... your a legend will it be 8% cash v 18% a few months ago ? Do I have some pre NASDAQ 2000 crash tip hot stocks for you !!
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 7 2019, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Tee hee ....
I always like seeing stupid in action.

Cant wait to see how much of cash he has invested at the high .... by end of June.
39% of holdings in tech 1999 and 2019 ... looks great.

Not sure how many made it past 2002.
Run Forrest Run !! Hamish is a hero .... World Economic Forum member who ... well ... never mentions tax.
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 02:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

QUOTE ("kahuna1 @ post: 1027823, member: 30")
Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play, but ... well ... the above is destroying underlying fundamentals quicker than even I can type. It does NOT mean we don't get there, but its less than likely if not impossible that world events and total destruction of overseas markets occurs prior to sanity prevailing. Valuation wise, up here .... USA side ... NOT OURS .... USA wise ... its into 1929 and 2000 type levels. Driven of course by NON payment of tax and it makes things look rosy


The above from a few months ago ... View unchanged USA ...

We are to the first irresistible line in the sand .... 3,000 in the S+P 500 ...
Nothing like the USA lowering tax by 10% that corporate pay.Second is the USA Fed muzzled.
Our markets given the weak Royal commission and our own RBA lowering rates is following lockstep.
Iran and other issues, ignored ... even potential ones.Much like 2000 ... tech sector priced like there is no problem ever to be seen with some companies with a mere 150 mio sales but a market cap over 10 billion.
Still some ways from where the 3,150 -75 SP level where the tide is already out, but the idiocy of markets nowadays is massive selling at lows .... and massive buying at the highs.

I did think the opposite was the idea, but what do I know.Meanwhile the lower 50% in the USA officially have NEGATIVE net equity and no wealth.The lower 80% own NO shares or not much and the top 80% own 93% of all wealth.

Funny thing markets and yep we follow the USA, but our lower 80% have 36% of the wealth .... not 7%.
In 1929-30 ,,,, USA run by the same clowns, with the same no rules policy ... USA actually was making 85% of the cars and 40% globally of all manufacturing.
Today its number 10 .... and a lot of that is questionable that's included.


Time for a holiday and come back when the prices more reflect reality.
Without a functioning middle class, let alone an impoverished lower 50%, much like in 1929, the lower 40% lived in poverty. In 2019, record numbers of people in arrears on car leases, medical bankruptcies number one cause and well ... if your paying in effect 3 times what the rest of the world is, sure my manufacturing numbers look ok.
Take care ...We finally are there ,,, and getting closer .... but this one, painful to watch for human reasons.
Cheers

Mark K
3,165 .... still suspect S+P but betting or predicting stupidity at times ... and for the first time ever, record deficits, record non war defence spending coupled with low low low interest rates ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 3 2019, 03:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I have to laugh ...

Trump took Ticker Carlson, the right win Fox idiot to meet Kim .... He was in touching distance.
The following is how delusional USA is right now compared to well Obama who was not great but one can only be amazed at this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMJakLzPags...dex=39&t=0s


UN ambassador was also an ex Fox news reporter ...
The world is an amazing place MAGA 2020 ....


Right at the end ... Nobel Peace Prize for Trump ... can 300,000 dead people in Yemen vote ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 2 2019, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi,

I note the drums beat louder.
On the enrichment, since USA dropped the deal, Iran even if it wanted to cannot export the excess enriched Uranium at 5% ... that is what it did in the past, but the USA has told everyone it will sanction any nation dealing with Iran.

Nothing like creating a situation.
I note, Say for Saddam in Iraq a Sunni Muslin and about 25% there, the military and all army positions were his Sunni brand and the top end his sons, brothers and so on.

He did comply with inspections pre 2003 invasion, even USA only ones, only for the USA still to claim WMD's were there and invade.

I note Libya with the highest life expectancy and education and welfare in the whole of Africa, again Sunni , NOT shia .... was of course a bad apple, attacks in the region and training and support over many years, In the end however .... 2003 Libya handed over a near completed nuclear weapon.

In 2011 ,. some fighting broke out ... against Gadaffi led govt, NATO and USA bombed him to dust aand he died with a bayonett up his rear.

Saddam, not a nice person either, but ... well playing the rules, well we know what he ended up as.

Any action by Iran will be the wrong one I suspect. At least according to the USA and UK.

They cannot have failed to see the value of even letting in inspectors and being a good non terrorist supporting regime.

I note North Korea with the bomb .... the chances of giving it up, to a group that will welsh on any deal is slim if not absurd.

I note with dismay .... Trump .... AGAIN ... claimed USA would be at war with North Korea.
Is he stupid ? Or just deflecting the latest rape allegation ???

China must have had a cow ..... AMNESIA or stupidity .... extreme overconfidence and looking at all others as sub human stupid people.

Well ... China is actually ahead in military tech in some key areas making USA carrier forces basically a target .... this to one side.

Korea ... Korean war, whilst nearly won, China was not happy and invaded, or supported the North and forced all the might of 20 odd nations back to square one. Even thinking about it, out loud ... would be insane. HE actually said it ... whilst China is not North Korea, having the USA conducting a military operation on its borders even the stupid can see is NEVER ever going to occur.

Yemen .... it has 7 Arab nations supporting the genocide ... All Sunni .... against Minority Hooti who are Shia Muslim ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabian...ention_in_Yemen

and ... wait for it ... Academi which is mercenaries .... USA ones called formerly [b]Blackwater[/b]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academi

I can count about 10 weapons Iran has that, well ... made me blink. They are masters at copying tech and this one ... from 2006 ... a 200 knot rocket torpedo ... which instead of having a say 20-30 knot advantage over a warship running to evade .... it has a 160 knot catch-up speed.

It is going to be a hoot .... sadly ... that's what they call it and its mounted I believe on various things ... not just fast attack boats but well other missiles which, well .... I suggest the Carrier force moves 2,000 km offshore. Unlikely they do get through, but .... 3,000 odd other modern torpedo and 30 subs ....

The sheer stupidity of Custer at little big horn, his arrogance and contempt, mixed with a dummy running the show who is indifferent to 300,000 Yemen people being slaughtered and likely a million next year is where USA policy is right now. So too .... UK and by silence ... Australia.

Enjoy ...

Some background .... on it ...
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...-knot...ant-match-56767

And pictures

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83mDZrAyWbc
Please Australia .... do not send our brave sailors and soldiers there. Mr Potato head PM .... WAKE THE HELL UP !!

This is just one of the 10 identified things Iran has got. It happens when you are ... used for350 well documented VERIFIED BY THE UN nerve gas attacks and plead for help .... numerous times to the UN !! Ignored and blocked by UK and USA ....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I am at a loss for words.

Yemen, 300,000 likely die this year.
Systematic genocide in place and fully supported.


I pray for our brave soldiers who well ... follow orders. Gallipoli was fun being landed on a cliff face instead of gently sloping rise ... they fought with dignity and distinction, so too many places ,,,, Rats of Tobruk ... Kokoda and 70 other places

Lest we forget ...
Our leaders, to be blunt ... following as always .... our darkest death march and Burma railway line whilst being starved was ... inhumane.... and close to an extermination camp

Yemen compares. Even Obama stopped selling weapons briefly to Saudi Arabia

Not Trump .///

Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
300,000 this year .... 1 million next.

Even Trumps senate tried stopping sales ... he Vetoed the senate. I kid you not.


Trumps motto ... now the idiot is running the show ....
Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 05:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I was going to post a China link.

I note it, and several others very strong worded stories against the USA have disappeared from the party English web site pre G20. Unknown as to why.

Replacement is a high brow, but just as insulting view of USA v rest of the world. From one doctrine to the Woodrow Wilson 14 points to the FDR 4 points. The latter saved the depression, the former, led to WW1 leading to WW2. The other doctrine which declared USA could do what it wanted and South and Central America were its, well, still in some ways in force, in others, most give the USA lip service post 1980.

G20 and China can go a lot of ways, one being Iran and its oil still flows, China plays good puppet and some sham treaty whilst they as always persue their own nations interests.

That these hard line articles that only appear with party approval are gone, I was disturbed as they echoed my own shared views almost word for word.

That even Donald could understand them, verses the veiled and tongue in cheek ones that replace them which are, for any student of history even more insulting as to Colonial treatment of sub human species is amusing and one likely lost on Trump. FDR for example and his views somewhat left saved the world, Trump is far right and Wilsons actions post WW1 were a disaster especially the repatriations demanded of Germany of 250 billion Marks in 1918 which was a quadrillion in today's dollars.

I note, with dismay, and a new record in stupidity, Trump in the White house imposed sanctions on a dead person. The religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989. HE in states where religion is intermingled with goverment was first and foremost the religious leader.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini

So also doing the same to the current religious leader and restricting his assets and movements, well ... it is what it is.

Again on twitter ... he makes more allegations which, factually in this case are not true.

To end this, and it will either blow over, or as Trump threatened again to obliterate them, one way or the other.

What is in shreds is Global trade.
Global trust in trade and this is not Iran but all nations.
Any deal, even supervised to restrict Arms, will be ignored even with inspectors on the ground.
Any military alliance, or trade alliance, or friendship will be torn up. Canada or Mexico or 27EU nations and Japan and on and on it goes.

My assessment of impacts, likely sooner rather than latter, on trade and geo political issues is start and scary.

If one said to me, world leaders, would be threatening invasion or obliteration via twitter 5 years ago, I would have called the person insane. Yet we have a call to overthrow Venezuela and North Korea will be eradicated and so too Iran. One calls the other a name and the other, calls the person a retard overnight.

World leaders. One nuclear power to a lessor nuclear power in one case, the other, well, A snapping alligator turtle without nuclear, no hope of getting it, till some idiot tore up the deal, but a nation and an ancient one, insulted, threatened and expected to negotiate ?

I note, the 16th ? Allegation of sexual stuff, not even headlines some USA networks, the woman, alleges Trump raped her and describes something in graphic and alarming detail. Trump, responds, she is not my type and he did not do it. End of reporting on the topic. Amazing, the consensual Monicia incident, whilst a vast disparity of power, was in fact consensual and still to this day, he brings it up. All of the 16, even ones now able to reveal being paid off, with bank records, I am amazed how things change. Then again how similar they are to times in other nations under various regimes.

Take care
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 07:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I am in disbelief.

My opinion, is as always irrelevant.
I wish you to view the President of the USA admitting he is fully aware of Yemen and the Genocide there.

Him speaking, clearly I think acknowledging Saudi will be dropped if ever its a choice of Israel or Saudi ... and well its for $400- billion arm sales which he describes as ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aSBwVx5Ih0...dex=28&t=0s


I know, my values, as a human and expectations are not shared by many. Only the whole EU and 400 million people, but only one person, President, and group of Oligarchy Industrial War one matters. Oh and Oil and gas interests .... suits them for a higher price. What is a skull cave in Yemen anyhow !! Wish we could send them to Cambodia during Pol Pots regime for re=education and plastic bag treatment.

Over the years, with a deep love of Americans and a deep dislike of its now leaders and their treatment of the USA people, the ones outside the top 1% but the lower 70% who are worse off than 1970. live shorter lives than even Sudanese, this, well ... takes the cake.

Any rational non religious view on this, other perspective appreciated. When speaking to someone who had visited some extermination camps in Germany and told one could still 75 years latter smell the human fat in the ovens where they burnt the bodies, my perspective, is somewhat clouded when a genocide, a well documented one, with full knowledge of the USA and its president is now accepted ?

I might add, Iran and its enduring 350 WMD attacks in the 1980-88 period, Nerve agents, and gas and so on, a mere 100,000- of the 500,000 Iran lost, again, we are not far removed from the tree's.

Governments are never perfect, at times appearing to be cruel and with limited resources its at times accepting this, and moving on. Sadly. for the vast majority of USA people, what once was great and make no mistake they are good people, their needs, wishes and desires resembles the hopes and aspirations of people under Pol Pot or Idi Amin. Healthcare and life expectancy for 200 million plus instead of rising 15 years post 1970 is lower, lower than then.

As to foreign policy I am agog, and any non religious view of this, which is associated with economics and likely impacts and only course of action for 27 EU nations and Japan and many others, yep China and India and basically the rest of the World minus USA.

That USA stood by under Regan as WMD.s were used and they supported as did the UK ... in 1980-88 is sadly nothing new in the last 100 years. Suggesting that in 1940, the fate of the Jewish people was not known, is painful to remember, but until late 1941 and Anne Franks father was desperate to go to the USA and did get a visa, only to be cancelled, is the extreme isolationist and barely covered racial ideals of USA in the 1930's .

I am lost on this one, other than economically China has little choice but to protect its own interests as does Iran when you know if allowed, 8 or so nations will exterminate you, and no one will lift a finger, even at the UN.

Meanwhile rah rah rah ... stocks at all time highs, tax paid at all time lows, in fact 25% of 1990 tax for corporate in the USA. Meanwhile, loosing 15 years of life for 200 million people, 3 billion years or 40 million total lives of 75 years, and its falling in the USA. Of course the top 30% are at world high life expectations. Meanwhile China went from 41 years life expectancy to 76 years. Oh and 650 million peasants have very decent middle class lives with more wealth than the bottom 80% of USA times 5 !!

I will add another thing possibly tomorrow. Reluctant to say more as you will see.
I am lost on where many things are other than to say, Google and Microsoft and many others are not having any future in China, India and likely the whole Eu after recent acts of the last few weeks. One cannot ... remove operating systems and barr things and even block deliveries. It renders any technology a mere pile of plastic and wires and if its a plane, like those ones that had the computer glitch, you crash..

Risk will do what it will ... I take the exit as always when things are NOT crashing but happy to do so now, even if possibly missing the last extinction burst of 5% on the USA possibly to 3,150 so 8%. All time highs .... music for the exit and well given the backdrop, thankful of the strength.

Take care
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 05:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Trump over the past few years touted his "America First energy policy" with an effort to boost LNG exports. A clean energy revolution is taking place across the US, which is seeking buyers for its surplus energy.

If the US succeeds in driving Iranian oil exports to zero, or the energy transmission networks in the Middle East suffer a blow from a possible war between the US and Iran, China may have to reduce its dependence on energy exports from the Middle East, especially Iran, and reconsider buying US energy products. That is perhaps exactly what the US wants to see.

Even if China's energy imports from Iran are cut off, China will be very cautious about turning to US sources. The ongoing trade war has made it increasingly urgent for China to cut the links between its energy sector and those in the US. China must reduce its dependence on US energy to safeguard its energy security, which is always a matter of national security.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1155418.shtml

Chinese party paper TODAY ..... after my view and opinion ...
Yemen ...
Same people .... USA and UK supported and Australia as WELL >...

More than 22 million people out of a total population of 28 million are in need of humanitarian aid and protection. Eighteen million people lack reliable access to food; 8.4 million people “do not know how they will obtain their next meal.”
https://theconversation.com/us-complicity-i...trations-106896

Killing Civilians for the Crime of Simply Being Yemeni
The U.S.-Saudi coalition warplanes deliberately target civilian infrastructure. They arbitrarily attack homes, farms, factories, schools, buses, gas stations, government buildings, water treatment facilities, and anything else imaginable.

https://www.mintpressnews.com/yemen-genocide/243247/




There is a complete blockade ... all sea and AIR ... blocked and Saudi call them Persians, just like Iran ...
No food ? You die.

Same backers USA UK .... Saudi ,, Kuwait .... UAE ,,,, as used chemical agents v Iran in 1980-88

Obama also has a list of very nasty things he did ... but Trump, wow he is worse.

Stand proud ... extermination ...

This G20 is going to be ,,,, fascinating.

The Chinese link is to the party paper ... nothing out of it is to be ignored and the cyber attack on Iran ... v my observation China has no choice but to drop Microsoft, Google, Andriod and Boeing and well a long list of things ... India shares this view.

EU is looking, somewhat silent, not on Yemen .... EU is being ignored totally by the USA ... totally.

Meanwhile, USA stocks march towards that 3,000 in the S+P .... driven by no tax or 10% lower tax, tax theft from overseas ... and whilst increased defence spending, the people .... inside USA ... the lower 70% would do better and live longer in even Mexico.

Of course this can go on for some time, but China, in its own self interest has to act. Maybe even on Iran oil .... India really will not be dictated to by another colonial power ... some upstart. Turkey, well ,,,, its being pushed towards Russia and its being blackmailed by the USA as is anyone who says or annoys them.

THat another attempted genocide is going on, and make no mistake the Iraq led invasion of Iran, given UK chemicals for those lovely Nerve agents and then when Iran went time and time again to the UN .... USA and UK blocked any action.

A mere 100,000 of the 500,000 killed on the IRan side, possibly double that. Iraq, a puppet ... lost similar numbers.

Yemen ? Nice place .... no food, no water, all access blocked and Mike Pompeo claims Iran is supporting them ? With weapons ? Have they invented teleport like in Star trek ? Any human supporting a persecuted group is evil ?


I again stress Iran is not a saint, but say the Kurds persecuted by Saddan helped calm things down, then discarded by the USA led forces. Then they resisted ISIL and ISIS ... hmm ...

Its called projection .... when a deranged person kills someone and chops them up .... and blames another.

Time for new friends Australia, your stinking Mr PM and time to get a set of them and send a surface mail letter verses a call going you have 14 days to vacate our nation and ANZUS is OVER.

I love my nation .... Sadly I cant at present love it ... I can only be ashamed. Gallipoli a military bungle and proud efforts over 100 years, but with a cause and a just one. How is killing ... or being complicit in killing a race something to be proud of ? UK Is neck deep in this as well ....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi,,

I hope and pray for sanity. Not with any conviction.Pompeo yet again called Iran a state sposneror of terror.On the two people and organizations that follow this .... ISIL and ISIS and Al Q then Talib ... then a few other flavours ...Iran ... is NOT even mentioned and its absurd to do so.IT fights the first three.

This to one side.Fear and all that.Iran is different ... So are we all.IT is and was the victim .... It is not claiming this ... It is a bloody easily made observation.

I cannot imagine been invaded then nerve gas and then toxic agents let alone Mustard gas.
This said ... IT is NOT a saint.

Iran ... if provoked is a snapping turtle if you look at the mille range link I gave. If your stupid enough to put your fingers in BErts face .... or threaten him .... well your stupid.
I believe ... Iran is the most dangerous opponent one could be stupid enough to provoke on its soil. NEVER again ...
I think if you provoked Austria in a similar fashion, we would be the same.
Bolton, Pence the VP of the USA ... and Pompeo are very fringe evangelical types. Being American and white as well ... and entitled ... they view anyone as beneath them.
Their evangelical end of days rapture crap is ... even more insane than Trump. It is a very .... bad cult movie. But, each to their own .... religion, this however ... is more.
Iran ... if you look at the maps of the USA bases ... then imagine just as many oil refineries and then tanker terminals and facilities in Kuwait and UAE and Saudi ...
Then paint a target on each .... and Iran has some toys like the land launched mobile cruise missile which Ukraine sold them in 2011 and they started making their own in 2015 .... HOME MADE ...

Whilst maybe .... the USA bases that appear to threaten the mythical snapping turtle and surround it .... well BErt is up to 24 fingers he removed.
ONE serious limited surgical strike on Iran by a power which IGNORED and supported another which used nerve agents and WMD's against it ....
Kiss it all goodby ... USA hits 5 sites Iran hits 15 .... USA hits 50 .... Iran goes ... well ... use it or loose it.
I pray for sanity, without much hope. I believe if it came to it, USA generals should REFUSE the order.

Cutting off Iran and strangling it ... when it was haing nuclear inspectors ... was adhering to the agreement which I might add the EU with 27 nations ... and then 5 more .... only USA decided .... Uk has followed but it is without a PM ....

This hopefully goes away. Past history of the USA tells me, they are delusional and not being run by anything other than corporations with an idiot in charge.
We, as an allie with the USA and me I include in this, hold a deep appreciation for USA and it people, NOT ... the paid for lobbyists, the self interest groups, the industrial war complex and so on. I love yanks .... dislike in the extreme the elite ... not to man or woman, but ... the things they have done to the USA are and were sick, and getting worse.
I would hope that some long term friend of the USA... says we are still friends with the people ... love them ... but NO longer can have anything to do with your actions and policies.
Its not being a China puppet .... its being a human being and not rubber stamping as we are the Genocide in Yemen, let alone ... what Iran post 2003 was a 500,000- killing fest. Libya similar .... Syria and ISIL ...

All the war stuff aside ...
China and if we are realisitic, USA just proved that we cannot rely upon any agreement not just defence, but more so trade .... Google wiping Andriod from some local makers phone ? Or Google paying 1% tax here and its Australian competitor is paying 24% ....

We cannot compete ... we sadly cannot trust.
China, India ... Turkey all now cast aside.
We, nor any nation ... can longer trust the USA. Nor do I suspect for a very long time. Trade ... mutual defence .... NATA and Trumps comments and actions, when it would have been NICE .... for once to have USA with us .... Timor ... NO pass from the USA.
Sorry not happy and whilst I pray idiots dont pull the trigger, actually hope China says get stuffed on Iranian oil imports ... and India and Turkey and EU does the same and isolates the cancer in the business sense let alone war mongering sense.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 07:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Must run …

Just got the diplomatic passports for the G20, Bert … looks so cute.

Meeting over the next week in Japan.


Iran's 2.6 million BPD out, up goes oil. Limited fight and even better. Saudi desperate and need oil above $70. USA and its shale oil and expanded production needs $70- as well and here at $50 ish they merely break even. As in 1980-88 Kuwait, UAE and Sadis funing it all. 9/11 same … not Iran …. back to Isreal wars …. same funding. Now USA allies ?

This time ignore a genocide in Yemen ? is genocide worse than WMD .?

Likely, and with regret, a limited strike against Iran, its knows no support for its persecuted minority religion. Are they the JEWS of the Muslim world ? Certainly not Arabs.

China just lost a massive trading partner via Iran. It lost energy independence and now its dictated by the USA ? India the same.

Oh and All Chinese products no longer work as Google and Android removed along with 5G stuff.

China to even pretend to bow, now also needs to convert all its laws, all its rules even style of government to USA.


Well, one shot, a surgical strike and we are at $150- oil, Iran will hit 3 times harder back, China cant really afford to be dictated to this way, NOR I might add any nation. Paying no tax overseas and economic terrorist, then extortion and destruction I thought led to most wars ?

It matters not what occurs from here. When you have been already extorted and threatened with destruction or impairment, economically, China has no choice nor does India to drop USA based tech companies and all products, from planes to all the rest.

That is destroyed, despite the USA equity markets for now, all time highs, running on a tax rate 23% of EU for corporate, 7% for USA .... paid ... that is ... and stealing any tax owed to EU when they sell there adding to the rise. EU , well … it will wake up. Oh and who can forget the 1 trillion in stock bought back as repatriated stolen tax money was allowed back into the USA minus any tax.

China and India ignore USA and protect their interests whilst ensuring Iran behaves. Chances of Iran becoming Communist are ... well ... ZERO. Unlikely as China does not wish to confront emperor Trump and well ... without a protector ... its a loose loose for China either way. Win win win for Oligarchy USA arms makers, oil and gas .... wow the Koch brothers are so nice ...



Going to be fun.






Its going to be pleasant.

Japan and Bert I suspect has developed a taste. If only he can meet with Trump !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Bert is so cute ...

still not well ...


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Note the size of Iran.
More so the size of Iran .... to say Iraq ...


Fascinating 1980-88 history of the Tanker war ...US naval institute ...Iran ... well until 1984 I think sank NONE and then ....l identified targets as best it could. Iraq, even hit and sunk ? A US warship ..
As mentioned .... Iran used mines and a US ship hit one .... USA responded sinking 6 or so Iranian ships.
Anyhow ...
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/.../may/tanker-war
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sorry link that works ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYhvOgN707k

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Will Chinese grow pigtails in 7 days ? For the G20

I love this clip .... Cocked and loaded ....
.
[MEDIA=youtube]MYhvOgN707k[/MEDIA].
Limited ... well Iran if they say hit 5 sites, sadly, Iran will respond via 15 ... and with 2000 odd missiles, not counting anti air ....
Bumble into a war .....
How many nations is the USA bombing ? Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Libya ... Yemen and soon to be Iran ? which is 20 times more able to defend itself..

I gave the link above. Think what you will ....
Will share some other views and again, take what you wish from them..
Bert still has not passed the blockage.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 09:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

OOhhh

what a party ... At the USA embassy. I wore Convict garb and the irony was lost. On them totally .... all with Trump boxers.

Bert ... my new pet Snapping Turtle is not well. His party, the previous night has yielded 17 gold rings most with precious stones, but he is constipated on hopefully the last one. Sadly, an international incident possibly could arise, if the truth ever got out. That embassy, will however resemble a Yakuza Japanese group missing fingers and all ... this time not for saying sorry .... but stupidity.
Anyhow, arrived with another escort to the party, this time ex spook Franciois from EU nation and his wife Dominique and their full diplomatic immunity. They missed the cavity search by a ham fist marine on the way in, no proctology exam needed for many years, and thankfully were the only reason I got out.

Sadly it seems not content with one diplomatic incident ... I have created 2.
Inspired by my convict garb, they thought I was showing correct subservience to my masters, this is the new hairstyle for the Chinese required at the G 20.

I was fascinated to learn Trump would not meet ... Kim Ill Jung of Korea till he had a hairstyle worse than the Donald.

That wearing a pigtail, is so deeply offensive, well ... again lost in the party.

The rest of what occurred at the Televangelist party ... after Bert passes .... all his gifts up ...


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi .. rather than appear like a nutter ... as I often do ...


Iran, whilst Mullahs seem ... well ... not nice. Each religion has its own beliefs. Its words at times about USA and Israel, the latter, contains 2 of the 4 top Islamic worship sites. Let alone holy christian ones.

In 1981, Israel, once friendly with Iran bombed their sole nuclear facility then.
In the 1980-88 Iraq led invasion of Iran .... Iraq and Saddam sponsored and supported by the USA .... a Conservative MID range estimate is 1 million died in that war. Iran, was the innocent party.

Iran eventually despite Iraq having a much better military started winning. Iraq .... used 300 times ... WMD's not just poison gas .... nerve agents.
100,000 of the dead Iranians, most civilians via nerve agents out of the 500,000 they lost.
Not some fantasy, or pet theory ... sad fact.Iran went to UN and complained, they verified both the USE .... and scale.
Here is the Low end estimate via Wikipedia

...current estimates are more than 100,000,Iran asked the UN to engage in preventing Iraq from using chemical weapon agents, but there were no strong actions by the UN or other international organizations. UN specialist teams were dispatched to Iran at the request of the Iranian Government, in March 1984, April 1985, February�"March 1986, April 1987, and in March, July and August 1988.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_chemica...Iran#Casualties
Iran, and dialogue was .... it was some third rate power. Outside the 8 nuclear superpowers, there is no more capable nation to defend itself.
If a single facility were to be bombed ... by the USA or likely say 5 .... the response whilst not threatening USA directly, Iran, already a victim of WMD's ... can and clearly just demonstrated that it can shoot down a top shelf drone, I sadly suspect .... all hell will break loose.
One only has to look at say Iraq and when Saddan was actually letting WMD inspectors on the ground, denying he had any ... USA did not believe it. It invaded on the pretense it had WMD.s and well a million dead latter in Iran .... another 500k regional via Syria and Libya and 1 million both sides 1980-88 ... what would you do ?

Iran is not Iraq.


Claiming to be .... well worried about adding 150 to millions of regional deaths ? As Trump did ?

I note, not a word about this even from well ,,, nutty left wing and history of the USA and shameful history is forgotten !!
I do hope some generals REFUSED ....

I must run and prepare for the USA embassy party tonight.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi
I sent a snapping turtle to the Saudi Embassy cocktail party.
It can hold its breath for 24 hours.
It can resist a lot of effort to attack it.
It is deadly close up, snapping turtles ... are great.

It emerged ... "Burt" ... my new pet snapping Turtle after 3 hours from the Saudi cocktail party.
It seemed sheepish and somewhat content and certainly well fed.
I note, this morning, its ejecting digested fingers with gold rings ... it obviously snapped off when threatened and they all smell of too much perfume.

I note, Iran was warned ... it was portrayed as a backward sheep or goat herding terrorist.
I note it was portrayed as some incompetent military power.
I note it was claimed it is supporting terrorists ....
I do NOTE that the nation Fighting ISIS and ALquada and Taliban is one called IRAN ...

Whilst Burt my new pet snapping Turtle appears and is quite harmless if you don't threaten him, I note with dismay, and in fact shame, some idiot seems to have donated at least 3 rings, ONE finger lost was not enough.

USA loosing a single toy ... a most advanced spy plane .... 242 USD million .... each ...

USA supposedly pausing .... being the bigger person after provoking and trying to say kill my new pet Turtle ... Burt .... is identical to 1991 ... 1987 .... 2003 and word for word .... USA actions.

How absurd to accuse the nation fighting ISIS ... Iran ... of supporting them.

Whilst Iran is not a Turtle .... its far far more dangerous and whilst I am sure USA and if stupid enough allies will prevail, ...

USA will and does not ever forgive. Loosing a fingernail .... via their most advanced spy plane ... or after sponsoring the wholesale loss of life say in Iraq of 500,000 post 2003, Iran Iraq war total cost 1 million and then add another 500,000- ... 1.5 million

If you were a proverbial snapping turtle and able to protect your people and THEIR welfare .... their life and as a minority 10% of one religion, openly persecuted by others of your faith, attacked by foreigners or their puppets.

Its not over. USA will not stop at loosing one finger, nor two.

Loosing a frigate in 1988 after goading Iran .... a USA frigate was lost, seems to be forgotten, not I might add by the person with no fingers back then. Iran, was on its knees when USA sponsored Iraq to invade in 1980 .... even worse when goaded in 1987 by USA ... and well Iran had lost in a brutal USA led and sponsored WMD gass filled toxic agent filled war .... a lot of its capabilities and people. Still, poor old USA ... well of course they retaliated as only they can ... whoops ... did we just shoot down a civilian airliner ?

Whoops did we just ink a few of your boats.

Whilst a mine .... does NOT move ... its anchored to the seabed ... the naval mine, the fact that a USA warship clearly inside territorial waters of another nation in 1988 ... ran over a MINE they had to protect themselves ? Of course lost in the mix.

Amusing, sad and its revenge for the taking of embassy staff ? Or is it oil ? Or is it China ? Or India ? Iran's number one and two trading partners for oil. USA says Yellow people ... and brown people ... put your hands on your head ? We impose embargoes on what YOU do ... who you trade with and then impose tariffs on you ... and threaten all ... of you deal with anyone ... we will do more.

Nope ... not even act one scene one ... USA will feed all of its armed forces ..IRAN is not IRAQ ..

Playbook say from 1987 mine accusations against Iran .... then a stupid USA warship in 1988 did hit a Naval mine.. inside IRAN territorial waters ... . they really as that incompetent ...

I await ... China at the G20 ... being told and lectured about being yellow, whilst told who and whom they can trade with ... whilst we hold your largest tech companies daughter hostage and dictate all USA companies cannot deal with you ....

PS India told the same ...
Meanwhile ... I do feel for the brave people who defend nations and without aggression. I am so so saddened for what is likely about to occur.

Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 19 2019, 06:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Oh and the real pictures //// NOT grainy black and white out of focus

Not even close to real capacity ...

Boat tender buffer they were pulling over the side and KICKED ... Not a limpet mine is the RED ROUND thing ... on deck.

Not a limpet.
The boxes ... u can read the writing on them and I might add two people were standing on said boxes ... when aside the tanker, and the ROPES around the front one is a hint at their contents, which is NOT a thing to do with bombs. let alone anything so stupid as to suggest someone would throw a bomb on deck and kick it.

IT was as suggested the Buffer/ fender to protect small boat vs large one.

Germany actually mocked USA.

French used a verb from I think their intel head, used describing USA claims, that even I blinked at and it was the verb about being well set up ... but so colorful as being violated from behind.

Amusing. scary and absurd.

Facts, even evidence and have no part of USA or the three clowns in this. In fact that eventually 9/11 terror guys caught and Isama and all his stuff which is the Opposite Islam and one that does not likle ... Iran .... the minority ... still overnight despite knowing they had NO involvement ever with Afghan Taliban or ISIS or Alquade and they are funded by UAE and Saudi .... still they repeated it.

I hope sanity prevails. If I suggested the KKK was accepting peole of colour it might be more factual.

Sad ...
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 09:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

ha ha ...

Russia came out as well in support of Iran ... along with EU ... laughing at latest USA pictures as absurd. A flying Mine ... was the comment in French... India and China and Iran and 80% of the world one side.

Love the clips but this one .... is more apt ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F82G_bUdxU...dex=4&t=11s

Oh and Trump just accused EU of unfair trade via Dragi .. saying he may lower rates if inflation does not pick up.
Meanwhile rally rally rally ... tee hee ... just like late 2007.
Economic warfare or is it terrorism on a global scale ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 05:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I write .... and Reuters ... just out ...
Like a machine gun ...

USA ...

As I type …. USA is sending more troops 1000 …. to gulf. Well …



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-midd...s-idUSKCN1TI0SP

Iran has standing army of 500,000 and USA could not, ever hope given the terrain pray for even any meaningful outcome. 4 times the size of Iraq. Iraq is flat ... Iran is one of the most mountainous regoins on the planet.

Then IRan .... VZia Reuters ...

Iran will not wage war against any nation, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday in a speech broadcast live on state TV.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...st-an...t-idUSKCN1TJ0IV

And without a beat being missed …. China …

The Chinese government’s top diplomat warned on Tuesday that the world should not open a “Pandora’s Box” in the Middle East, as he denounced U.S. pressure on Iran and called on it not to drop out of a landmark nuclear deal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-box-...s-idUSKCN1TJ0B8

Do you think ... my mythical invitations to various Embassies and what sadly is about to occur is even close to the mayhem about to potentially if not assuredly via either China joining India going get stuffed to USA on tariffs ?

Time will only tell ... as with the rest. USA trade actions ... even now forcing China to develop and use non USA Microsoft and develop its own version of Android mobile operating systems let alone any chip they already don't produce.

I have decided to blacken my face and go as a cotton farmer from the USA from 1500 till well even 2018 to the USA embassy party.

Take care
Mark ...

PS even without a shot fired, I have never ever seen such a disturbing actually guaranteed total destruction of capital and longer term value for USA based interests, not just tech, but I sadly suspect every industry from cars, to planes to EVERYTHING. Nothing like stupidity on display.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 01:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Ooooh ...


invite to Saudi Cocktail party at consulate in the mail !! I am breathless For some reason.


Invite to USA cocktail party ... in Canberra where the lobbyist lawyer USA Ambassador runs Australia ... NO tax for those USA corporations is now Ambassador/ President of Australia. What to wear ? Convict garb ? OR as an African American despite being anglo ? Or is it Bernie for 2020 T shirt ?

They keep coming. The party invites.
Last one just arranging the deal with other parties to ensure mayhem does not break out.

Mum is the word till after G20 likely failing v China tariffs latter this month. USA allowing its corporate to pay NO tax overseas, in fact claim all deductions say at 30% corporate rate in Australia and then when the bugger off ,,, without paying anything, they don't even have to pay the 21% USA headline rate, there is a special rate for overseas generated profits. stolen from overseas ... now ... 12% MINUS overseas paid tax or deductions.
Is that a subsidy ? Or WHAT !!!

Wow ...

USA of course markets went up overnight despite INDIA going get stuffed USA,
Ignored Russia and Iran agreement,
Ignored China and Iran agreement on trade

Not sure they will ignore the defense mutual agreement likely signed post G20 ?

Whoops did I say that ? Does that mean I cant come to the party next month. China protects Iran, ensures NON nuclear proliferation via Iran, it will hardly need it with a Chinese new port in the Arabian sea. Win win win for actually the world.

Win for Iranian people .... Persians Not bloody Arabs.
Win for China and its Oil needs.
Win for sanity.

So so so sorry Mr USA Ambassador for my convict attire.

I just cant keep a secret.
This G20 ... is going to be a ripper.

Meanwhile China has NO option but to drop Microsoft ... from operating systems ... android is being banned so China must use its own ... and Huawei with 81,000 R+D staff and its just one of the phone makers there .... has more R+D staff than Apple and google Combined.

I have never seen such a stupid, arrogant policy on so many levels ... not just war ... industrial military side ,,,, but a DELIBERATE total and complete assured destruction of WEALTH and markets.

USA and its well ... policies, ensures China MUST develop and be self sufficient in all aspects of tech. Let me see ... hmm $300- phone or $1,500 one ? Doing the same thing. China has 90% plus of Africa by the way ...

Meanwhile USA shares, and equities rise, as their non payment of tax to anyone anywhere .... of course supports valuations, but, when you send a pile of dog poo to a restaurant customer and DEMAND they eat it, are they likely to pay ? Or come back ?

Fascinating unprecedented times on all levels.
Iran even without China ... is NOT Iraq.
It can and sadly will ... again ... if needed ... do what it must and has no choice to do.

Must run party party party ...

Cant breathe ... oh and the Turks who taped recording of the actual the death of the Kosggi Washington Post newspaper reporter inside the Embassy of Saudi Arabia inside Turkey, which as a friend of the USA at the time, in fact crucial one for Gulf War 2, invasion of Iraq number two, NOW no longer USA friend and sanctions for them for their actions.

Washington Post now of course, "Enemy of the state", accused of treason by Trump. Funny, that sounds like "Jewish people enemy of the State from 1933".

My dance card is full !! So many parties.
I suspect hamburgers at one event .... scabs, and bogans that they are.
Do love Chinese food next month, cant wait.
A good kebab at the new Turkish event ....

the other ... well do I wear a scuba set to get air ?

BLiss
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 17 2019, 07:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy ...



I noticed something, a while ago ... In USA stuff which was obvious. If say i called an Indian a Pakistani, or say a Mexican a Canadian, totally different cultures, religions and so on. It is VERY clear out of Trump and the Bolton and Pompeo they are blissfully aware.... OR UNAWARE .... Iran is a separate faith. It is NOT an ARAB state and does NOT speak Arabic there other than around 5% of the people.They are Persian majority.
..
Accused of some armchair warrior or whatever, Here is .... I suspect one of the top military analysts and with vast experience.
former Israeli Intelligence Boss Yakov Kedmi and jis view ... is identical to my own.
..
Israeli Intel Boss Claims US Will Lose War With Iranhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvPZHaz7xKo&list=WL&index=11&t=987s
..
Then again for some, anyone's view no matter how vastly experienced they are ... is an aside.Similar points about SIZE of IRan, geography and so on.
I found another classic and WHY we went into Iran in 2002 ?
'
Look at this classic ... standing next to George W bush JUNIOR ... the guy with the WALRUS mustache is none other than John Bolton the man that time claiming WMD in Iraq, not Iran...
Goes into some depth, not completely accuracy but with pictures of the players speaking, lying ... and is amusing and well ...
scary.

Corporate News Pushes Iran War For Trumphttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgQzb4ErYWQ...=WL&index=9

Meanwhile Our PM .... not a word other than the two pies he scoffed at once were not enough.
Enough on this topic, just fingers crossed, but sadly, history and same players .... Trump is the new boy all the rest of the gang ... still there ...

Are we at war YET ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 17 2019, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Alarmist ? Opinion. yes, emotional ? Maybe, sad and deeply so, yes.

Part 2 .....


It is about investments actually. Not WAR.

There is no single wealth destruction event that can be predicted with some accuracy ... OR Risk off the table if your saneOTHER than a looming a war OTHER than a looming war .. which usually can be seen well prior it.

Yes if one could predict an earthquake or volcano or natural disaster with accuracy, a WAR ... say like 1939 and prior to that which was WELL telegraphed, saw equities in UK, USA and elsewhere, logically Fall and FALL like stones after some events like Pearl Harbor when the threat was direct.

I am not suggesting Iran is blameless, NOR not guilty. Its history and factual, is a sad one.
One cannot one day be on the side using WMD's in 1980-88, then NOT ....

I fear, the USA more than most right now.

If one owned say land in the Somme in 1914 worth 2 million, in 1918, well it looked like mud, no buildings left and worth 10%.

I note, and being foremost a forecasting type of scientific analyst, NOT an economist .... well qualified but not ...

Ben Bernanke, and drip down economics claim that supply side works and Bernanke is famous for his 1929 views and delusional ones I might add about markets which ignored, IGNORED ... Germany invading Poland and the slide then, the Dunkirk slide, the Battle of Britain slide and even Pearl Harbor when markets closed for a week and came back 15% lower much like 9/11.

NOTHING .... beats a bloody war. I am not suggesting we go there, I pray we don't.

I note, China basically said get stuffed to USA again and in relation to Iran this time. Over the weekend India said get stuffed USA and imposed its own tariffs, not that that mean much. Russia at the same meeting with Xi head of China and the rest NO USA .... even Iran there ....

Where did the USA send its index UP ....

UP ? near all time highs. China has been forced to invent its own mobile NON USA based software .... Its stopping all Microsoft in Military and Govt uses with good cause ...


Maybe my picture is wrong, but it seems, well .... a time to be a bit more RISK adverse and my whole point on this thread, topic and others about cycles and an insane ability to strangely predict the future is LOOKING back and then going well .... its common sense to be more cautious.

A best time to do this is WHEN irrationally markets are going one way, and RISK is going the OTHER. Or value is going the other way.

Iran and what occurs will happen. I think, well potentially China will go get stuffed on USA ruling no more imported Iranian oil Mr China and we have this exponentially going into global stuff. Even without that, if USA is so arrogant and they are that, so self centered and one can see despite very bad announcement sand indications for USA and its tech side and equities via China and its actions, it defies even all logic and is UP. Likely it just wants to go up and up and up.

I am happy, as always to reduce risk and stand back into, well .... IDIOTS. Not suggesting USA on the main is that, love them, appreciate their role, but right now, its the sad fact that the lower 70% hold 4% of the wealth, and well 70% held by the top 1% and 40% of that the top 1%.

What the lower say 80% wants, needs or desires, like universal healthcare, decent costing, decent education and things we take for granted, they are labelled via the USA media as Socialist or communist when ... we enjoy them, as do 60 other nations yet are we socialist ? Communist ?

Strange world. MY distaste for USA leaders post WW2 and especially as the vast majority got screwed post 1980 Reaganomics and regressive tax and NO tax for the rich ... is ... profound but also tempered by the REAL role to stop idiots with WMD's and Biological weapons or nerve gas. You just don't stand still and support its use either directly or indirectly then ... use it .. as an excuse to bomb the hell out of another ... Libya or Iraq .... not sure about what side USA is on in Syria where used YET again ...

IRAN had them USED on its people, GAS, Toxic agents and so on, NOT THEM, IRAN .... USING them.

These weird projections of the USA accusing the victim of the crime .... let alone Trumps mutterings, Clearly a psychopath or sociopath, likely to end ... well in tears. All around in tears and if Iran is not well prepared then I AM STUPID.
I am .... I am sharing what most would take years to learn for free.
Risk off ... its all time highs for the USA, post GFC for us, eve if wrong, I will i am sure get another bite at adding to the pile.

Take care
Mark K.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 17 2019, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy


From elsewhere /.. ME ... sorry font but this new site ...

Hi,

Any topic, we will have opinions, and reality unless the evidence is clear and irrefutable.

In some things, science, and experiment conducted 1 million times, same result every time, expecting another result the next time or denying the thing occurred that way a million times is where some people are.

We did not go to the moon, the earth is flat, atrocities did not occur. Even in finance claiming say the GFC stocks went up post 2007 into 2009.

If one had taken the time, and say 30 others on say science behind a topic, all say 40 issues, and every single one, not any were either fake or not agreed with, delusional theories .... not supported by any factual content, scientific or even logical are presented instead .... well they exist in their own little world. There are several threads here on this site with examples of science, irrefutable incontrovertible facts past occurrence and after 50 pages or so, 100 responses, being polite, searching if one had missed something, one asks ? what of the 40 topics ones with chances of less than one in a million and 50,000 scientists believe and sign off on do you agree with ? If the response is NONE and NOT and all are fake ?

What would you call someone with these thoughts ?

Delusional ? .

I mean no disrespect, they are if given even the time of day in any rational discussion where science logic, fact and irrefutable evidence is to be used, a way for some quite irrational and idiotic theories which are just absurd to enter and cloud the issue.

Would you keep listening with any seriousness if someone told you they were 50 kg when clearly they were 200 kg ? Or say if they presented a car run over by a truck resembling a pancake and told you a leaf fell on the roof, maybe if they were cute you may forgive, but ... well it is what it is.

On Iran.
It is NO saint. I repeat I have NO idea if they did it,
I am very clear and have presented that damage was caused by Limpet mines with 3-5 kg of explosive and HOW and WHY they only could have been placed when a ship is at rest and NOT moving especially the one near the propeller.
Of the 6 damaged ships ... 5 had limpets, NOT SEA mines. Sea mines contain 500 kg or so of shaped charge designed to destroy a ship moving twice the speed of a tanker which is not armored.

Factual.
For a month, the first 4 attacks, it was implied and sprouted the attacks were SEA mines which I would agree come from likely a nation state due to SIZE. They were not.

they were limpets, weighing all up around 8 kg the size of a briefcase magnetically attached to the hull. I have shared that a 10 year old could build the bloody thing, not with the explosives likely with $500 if they scrounged.

These were attached whilst at rest in the UAE or Saudi waters, where 15 warships, 6 hovering planes, 3 satellites and hives of drones were looking. Possible but, well, given the first clear lie was left lying for a month, I am less inclined, in my opinion to believe.

Second attack, one limpet and some flying object, one ... which which was called a torpedo until pictures came out that the HOLES were above the waterline.

It was NOT a bloody torpedo, unless it FLEW.

Pompeo overnight ... 15th June 2019, actually blamed Iran for an attack that al-Qaeda the ones in 2001 the guests of the Taliban, In Afghanistan and backed and funded the 9/11 terrorist attacks that come from the Majority 90% Group of Islam, Sunii faith, that DOES NOT LIKE the Iranian minority Islam faith Shia faith... The USA secretary of state, such as he is .... he blamed Iran for the attack that the other Al-Quada terrorists had already admitted was THEM.

Accusing say the DEAD Journalist killed inside the Saudi embassy Kashoggi, it was on tape, as he died. A tape released from inside the embassy as he was suffocated .... going and pleading he could not breathe, and now admitted by Saudi Arabia they then chopped him up and disposed of the body.

If Pompeo had claimed Iran did that, it would be about on a par as absurd as his latest claim.

This is the Secretary of state of the USA.
He and the USA responded by selling 20 billion MORE in Arms to the Saudis. Let alone their funding of al=Quada and the 9/11 attacks which I point out Iran had NOTHING to do with.

On intelligence, overnight again Pompeo claimed more had been released. Japan has expressed its disbelief and Germany outright came out with total disbelief. USA, Britain ... of developed nations ... and a total of 12 .... Yes 12 with 10 other EU nations making well ... comments that do NOT support this USA version.

Australia and fathead PM, with forces in the air over Syria, ships I believe still in the Gulf, troops on the ground in Afganistan and with the most important spy base in the region, a joint USA Austrlain one called Pine gap which uses assets from this part of the world, we have ringing sounds of silence.

Israel, similar.

Some history ... or repeat of the play-book USA used in 1988 ?
USA claimed in around 1988 a tanker was hit, sea MINE and used that to bomb Iran and its offshore facilities. Does that sound somewhat similar to current events ?

USA shot down a civilian airliner with I think 290 people on board from memory in 1988.
Prior to that the Iran Iraq war which Saddam Hussein then a ally of the USA was supported as he started and attacked Iran after they removed the similar puppet Shah of Iran that the USA and Britain had installed who ... well made Saddan and say Manual Noriega in Panama and the Marcos puppets and few despots in South America USA installed an supported look like nice people.

Dates me be out ... its from memory.
Iran under the Shah was actually with Ok relations with Israel up till about 1980 and the removal of him.

Then a war, supported by many ensued and roughly 2 million were killed both sides all up.

The fighting was brutal and compared to WW1 trench warfare at times because Iran, was isolated and at times Iran had to use human waves of people, armed with grenades to stop the well supplied Iranian side with allies like the USA and even Russia and most of the majority 90% other faith of Islam states.

It is BEYOND even doubt, weapons of mass destruction, nerve gas and what occurred is a total complete farce on may levels. this war ground on from 1980 to 1988.

Stalemate and the land grab Saddam in Iraq tried to seize off Iran did not work. Saddan 3 years latter, thinking he was encouraged .. to invade Kuwait and threaten Saudi Arabia in 1990 or was it 1991.

All of this was a land grab, about OIL .... and since then, well even since 1980 its been the forever war the USA has been playing with flies ... in the region.

Now, Iran .... a million dead or wounded, in the past 30 years, victim of weapons of mass destruction ... whilst NOT the USA using them, they supported as did the UK the people who ousted their puppet Shah of Iran.

In the midst of this, Israel, and its status of whether the USA is its Allie or foreign policy is Run vica versa via its influence in the USA political side is just an observation .... Iran had a pilot Nuclear plant. French built I think, in 1981 ... Israel flew over 7 other nations and BOMBED Iran .... Bombed the nuclear plant they saw as a threat and hence the part of the animosity and some of where the rhetoric comes from.

I do understand the need to NOT have nuclear proliferation, I do understand why the horrors of Mustard gas and WW1 were banned, so too WMD of biological and toxic nature, YET ... they were used a mere 30 years ago against IRAN. It was NOT them bloody using them, it was Saddam of Iraq, who thought it would be a pushover with Iran ,,, and was loosing ... badly ... used them to STOP human waves.

Be proud .... our closest Allie USA ... rah rah rah. I was living in the USA gulf war 1 .. and I cast you mind back for those old enough to whilst it being a cake walk, Iraq had 1960's mainly soviet tech verses USA ... a flat terrain ... it was pretty one sided. Well ... I suppose another million dead in Iraq ... post then .. with gulf war 2, its hard to contemplate the misery ...

Estimate out of Gulf war one on Civilian accidental deaths from USA was .... 6 ... yep 6 ... From the Red cross its 50,000.

I digress. Iran. Iraq despite the cakewalk ,,, and USE IT OR LOOSE it bombed from above ... the search for hidden scud missile of which were bloody a mere 100 or so ... they were not found in a totally flat country for about a month and some were sent to ISRAEL .... 1960 design .

Iran is NOT IRAQ.
Its already shall we say, shown tolerance. I do NOT know if some branch of their somewhat dual armed forces placed the mines on the ships. It IS possible but so too from a 10 year old and every single nation state on the planet.

IRAN ... already a victim of what I suspect is the worst of humanity over the last 40 years, is well versed mountainous and well aware ... if the USA actually was stupid enough to click it off, its a matter of shoot it or loose it for its massive long range and intermediate missile defenses. All 1,500 of them, 5,000 or so shorter range ones and they ... are NOT 1960;s they are not quite cutting edge but comparing them to a SCUD ... a mere 100 ... would be absurd.

Whilst 3 old larger subs, 4 or so mid sized ones and 23 small ones, and MODERN ... good luck !!
good luck against the smaller anti ship stuff and 2,500 mobile armored tanks or artillery in regions that offer great defense.

That I suspect Iran is assessed to have NO Nuclear capacity is clear. Iraq was claimed to have it or be close to it, and Libya was not thought to have any yet handed over a near complete one, well ... its time to pause ....

Not a debate about the history or versions of it. I don't have AMNESIA or Dementia or some axe to grind.

Iran, is well prepared. VERY WELL prepared and has endured what I would call extreme events post 1980.

I do understand the role, and at times being the police of the world the USA has assumed. Rightly or wrongly installing Anti communist despot dictators in over 85 nations. Dirty tricks and at times wars like Vietnam which were to stop the commies and stop ... nuclear bombs which we DO not want in too many of any hands, so too ... Nerve agents or other WMD's. at times ... harry hindsight can be critical.
I am Not being ANTI USA or anti the role.

Call the police and most scoff at them, until they are needed. Some hopped up drugged out imbecile with a knife lunges, do you stun him via taser which will not work ... or shoot him ? Tough LUCK ... sorry but this is the ROLE the USA and leaders are meant to play globally. NO exceptions NO rules for one as a group and then for the other.

Proliferation is not to be tolerated nor is open and naked aggression. Its blurry and ... in Iran's shoes, he said she said ... as to Nuclear stuff. A valid deal to monitor and NOT allow Iran to enrich and develop a nuclear bomb was SIGNED and being a very VERY good thing for the planet and ALL nations security.

Along comes Trump, with dialogue out of the Regan Era, actions identical and claims identical. Its not 1988, not for Iran. Not by a long shot.

It at times and an opinion, needed for a strong if not brutal seeming Leader or dictator to stop often fractured religions and ones that without suppression of HATE of say inside Iran, and Saddam was NOT a saint, but Minority Kurds in the North, Mainly Shia of which Hussein was and then minority Sunni Islam, without any violence NOT being tolerated and brutally put down, nations which were created not via ethnic or religious lines, as in the middle east but by the UK and USA drawing lines on maps, well ... mayhem would have ensued.

It certainly has post Gulf war 2 inside Iraq. Libya and again a strongman and NO bloody saint, but the people had decent conditions and society. Gadaffi, well removed and the nation is a total war-zone and he, whilst no SAINT ... for his efforts and he was a good boy in the end, eventually he face down died with a bayonet in his behind from one of the ultra religious zealot factions he had to try and muzzle at times by force during his reign.

We are, well not far removed at times from the trees.

I am NOT prepared to believe much of what has been presented for obvious reasons. It is factually inconsistent with evidence. Past claims, WMD in Iraq ... which were myths, makes me less so.

Opinion ? fact ? make your own mind up.

As to history and well documented events, I am Not about to rewrite roles or forget. In Iran's place, a massive oil producer, that lets or has dictated 35% of all oil goes out less than 12 miles off its shore, but NOW it has to watch ... everyone else and their tankers can go through the Straights, expect theirs ?

Hmmm ... All Iron Ore exports banned from Australia. Lucas Heights mainly medical small reactor Bombed, oh 300,000 Australians killed in an invasion 30 years ago, Offshore LNG not allowed to be exported, rest of world must take their iron ore ships 5 km off our shores whilst we can export none, WMD and nerve gas used 30 years against us ...

I do wonder, what preparations we would have in store when its a mere 1,500 KM away to say the person who bombed us in 1981 ?

Iran is NOR Iraq. Its, well ... something I hope sanity prevails and COOLER heads prevail.

I sadly hold not much faith that the USA desperately needs a war to distract from domestic issues. I suspect even beyond well know capabilities Iran has a lot of toys, ones via others, some domestically made that will make the world blink.

Bombing say Libya and Tripoli as they did in the past, is NOT even close to doing it, AGAIN to Iran. Iran in any conflict, has a sad, shameful well documented history.

I sadly hold less faith in the USA or even UK, which has NO leader until they elect a new one than at any time over the last 100 years. USA has had some great, balanced ones who saved the planet despite domestic views say in WW2 and FDR ... he ignored public opinion or ignoring Germany and Japan till, it was dragged in. This, is NOT a great leader, its not even a reality show, this is potentially a debacle with China, India, Russia and a lot of others V USA and maybe UK ... with EU stepping aside.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hahah ... no not there .... then again this ... stupid new site and font ... i give up.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

I am not an expert, other than a curious observer with a critical eye and some limited knowledge.
My caveat ...

Well ... its pretty basic stuff ... the weapons ,,, claimed ,,, size of explosive in a sea mine is 500 kg ... v limpet 3-5 kg ...

I repeat ... some limited knowledge !!

The size of blast, damage is consistent NOW with the admitted and accepted Limpet mine. Magnetically attached.

Others can make judgement of evidence presented as I have and 6 others sources I shared.
It is factual, easily observed via grainy video ... or simple searches of the internet .. and NOT emotionally presented.

Now more clear, USA, Saudi Arabia and UK, with Israel being the I told you so and UEA in one side and rest of the logical world being the other in this disbelief and logical examination of facts.

A limpet mine, now clear of the 6 ships hit, 5 were hit by a limpet mine a 10 year old could construct. Its small and size of a briefcase. Cost, and lets go cheap, a watertight likely double gasket, making it virtually unthinkable to ever get water inside, cost about $50- at Walmart or a good hardware store. Powered by NO moving parts, a timer and a countdown one on Ebay for $50- with 365 days and powered by 2 Duracell batteries giving if 3 years life another $50-. Then wires …. BEEP BEEP alarm to not the speaker but detonators and and ON off arming switch between it, utterly foolproof and a soldering kit and chances of any fail less than 1 in a million. This is the 10 year old's built version. So detonators and explosives made into a shaped charge, NOT any difficulty there at all. NONE … longer wires one side and shorter the other to focus the explosion into a shaped charge so the main force goes as a shaped charge in one direction. The same side the magnets are placed. The one up against the hull.

Now explosives and detonators, about 200 nations can get, 100 other groups and yet another 500 or so other groups inside and surrounding governments could get.

Magnets, massively strong ones, well I sent my 10 year old to the tip for old microwaves and removed from 3 for $2. the magnets inside old microwaves, which grip the metal side of a ship with over 25kg force needed to remove them. Or of course like the Ebay electronic countdown timer with 365 days I could buy them there for $20- plus freight. All up, explosives for a govt are cheap and we have a foolproof limpet, utterly reliable, $100- plus say $250- explosives. Well under $500- … but if your buying from a contractor a USA one its $50k. Hardly sophisticated or outside capabilities of my 10 year old nephew and a soldering kit.

Placement, well a moving ship at 15 knots or 25 km and hour I can rule OUT as when it occurred. It is Possible, but Impossible for a lot of reasons. One of the 5 totally impossible. I knew for a month it was LIMPET mines with 3-5 kg explosives NOT naval mines which ARE and could likely only come from a nation state with 500 kg of explosives in a sea mine and it would have broken a tanker in two. A limpet mine, a SINGLE limpet mine on a 50,000 ton tanker would be like trying to shoot a raging Elephant with a 22 gun. A marine mine a real one with 100 plus times force would be a battle tank main gun trying to stop the same elephant.

This aside, USA tried claiming it observed Iranian boats, 20 plus, fast light ones operating in the region. Well since its less than 12 nautical miles and inside Iranian territorial waters the shipping lanes GO to get into and out of the Gulf, of course they operate there. Any suggestion the approached the territorial waters of UAE or encroached or Saudi is absurd. Even the massive bases the USA operates in Saudi, in the UAE there is one with 3,500 personnel an air base the operates drones and maintains a 24 hour a day 6 fighter CAP, Combat Air Patrol and any activity would DOUBLE this with I would say 10 drones, 3 satellites around 15 fighters and then we have the warships USA ones, not the carrier battle group but over 15 operating inside the Gulf which would be, lets say, at battle stations so its absurd this new claim. Let alone NOT recorded in living colour.

As to HOW to place a limpet, firstly, ONE will never sink the tanker. Its merely a harassment. An absurd one. It is maybe possible giving the placement of some for it to have occurred whilst moving, highly unlikely at 25 km an hour underwater and IMPOSSIBLE without a souped up min sub matching speed cavitation and making as much noise as a FOGHORN underwater that even incompetent warships worried about subs, all 15 could hear from 100 km away. IT DID NOT HAPPEN … that way. The ships were stopped and they only stopped inside UAE and Saudi Waters. I can now confirm this from more rubbish released.

Now, one of the 5, it was IMPOSSIBLE to even do it whilst moving. The bombs all placed well under the waterline, U shaped Hull, 4 of the 5 the damage was low down the U shape and 12 foot under water. SOMEONE got wet. Suggesting the grainy photo is a recover of a Limpet a fool knows with NO moving parts, is less than 1 in 100,000 chance to fail, was placed below the gangway, in full sight of anyone looking over the side, exposed when the ship went up and down, exposed when it went side to side, makes intelligence claims even More absurd.

One should never use the words Intelligence with the word Military when it comes to these affairs.

So why do we know with almost 100% likelyhood they were placed in UAE waters or Saudi Waters ? Well tanker number 4 from a month ago, the blast was on the rear, and at the REAR, is a thing called a propeller. You know dummy, the thing that MOVES the ship. Even if remotely possible to place a contact mine on a moving target at 25 km underwater, the force is like sticking your head out of a jet at 500km an hour, possible, I suppose but so difficult and noisy to match pace an absurdity to suggest. To do so and a cleanly placed limpet mine under the REAR of a ship whilst propeller is moving, IS NOT POSSIBLE.

Seriously. What crap. Oh and I might add, to place said mine, despite magnets, bottoms of ships need cleaning with wire brush to remove slime and barnacles so mine is flush against said hull or it WILL bloody drop off. So there is little if any doubt WHERE they were placed. In the most intensely monitored waters on the planet above and to some extent below the water for an incursion. Then again a person in a speedboat and wet-suit and hopefully a re-breather system for no bubbles could do it.

This DOES not rule out IRAN, not suggesting it does. But claimed how put forward is ABSURD and if not insane.

Then the fact its ONE limpet meant to not destroy but, well damage. With a timer I presume if they spent the extra $2- on ebay for their timer has 365 day countdown. The cheaper one has 7 days, so WHY would one set the timer to explode a tanker into YOUR fishing grounds ? Or even time it so its passing close to your own waters, as the last one was, why not set it for say 10 days and its out to sea ? Again does not rule out Iran, but, well, letting it go off near you ? It could be a plot within a plot, but in your fishing grounds ? Oh really ?

An aside. My LIMITED NOVICE … knowledge and I share in memory of friends lost long ago, brave men who gave their lives for their nation protecting it on foreign shores many moons ago. We send brave men to protect us at times, and at others, of late, their sacrifices and misery they endure and inflict, is a disgrace to their past sacrifice for even at times misplaced foreign policy decisions. This, current state of permanent war for 18 years its time to just say NO as a nation.

The again, who cares ? One should.

As somewhat conversant in suspected capabilities, if it came to all out, I suspect prior to Iran being bombed from above, its naval side and more to the point missile capability would likely see 30 plus outright tankers sunk if not more, several massive oil refineries and pipelines destroyed, likely a few precious USA warships overwhelmed and if the Chinese have lent a few toys as I suspect they may have, like EMP and enhanced EMP missiles, the grainy 2 MP pictures will be replaced by phone cups with strings and even hardened EMP circuits will fry and look like plastic exposed to fire.

That is not suggesting a free ride for Iran even if it was them. It would seem, being fair its unlikely from evidence present if not absurd it WAS them. Maybe that is the devious scheme, and it was them. Not however from evidence and claimed course of events or claims it was technically only possible for it to be Iran. It was my mythical 10 year old nephew, and there IS no 10 year old Nephew. Building a waterproof container with a 265 day timer and wining with magnets, less than $100- , wiring up to the detonators and explodes simple. Foolproof uttery reliable and to suggest it fails ? Or is SET to explode in your backyard ? Your main fishing grounds ? A tanker filled with oil ?

Iran is seen in the region as a moderate state. I include another decent view from another.

Saudi Arabia has invited all skeptical journalists to any of its embassy offices to discuss the matter and be enlightened.

Am I being a know all ? I think NOT ... or claiming expert status ? Or being emotional ? Or not logical and critical ?

Whatever !! Factual, clinical and presenting it as best one can a complex situation and ... yep ... a more than passing knowledge which can be easily verified by a mere google search as to what a limpet mine bloody is .... and the rest is COMMON sense. Not some gibberish of emotional illogical conspiracy theory.

The mines were limpets. Placed whist ships were STOPPED almost assuredly.

Anyhow that clip ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y1-jMADEzc...dex=15&t=0s

"No one else wants war": Vijay Prashad on U.S. aggression toward Iran

Make of it what you wish. Capabilities of Iranian Navy already given.

ASK more Questions. GET MORE facts ....

Oh and I found this amusing ...
Anyhow, USA admitted in back channels the reason for the poor quality was they used USA made technology without Chinese parts. So it looked like a 2 MP resolution v 100 MP the drones HAVE and at zero Optical zoom v 50 times they HAVE and at 5 times Digital zoom verses the 500 THEY actually have. Oh and colour let alone black and white.


Australia is like a spineless toad of the USA I might add. An opinion. The main part of the rest are facts.

One cannot place a limpet mine on the rear of the ship, near the propeller without the bloody thing not turning.

Make of all of it what you like. I would PREFER not to follow the USA. For obvious reasons.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 03:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Well here are some more rational clips about this incident.


<h1 class="western">Vijay Prashad: U.S. Rushes to Blame Iran for Tanker Attacks as Much of World Pushes for Diplomacy</h1> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktrEIjej9Bo...WL&index=11


<h1 class="western">Japan Says Trump Admin Is LYING About Iran Attack</h1> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf1x2uZrz-c...WL&index=12

the last one its not going to be Iraq 2.0 ….. Iran is TWICE as bad as Iraq and Afghanistan potentially.




See the above link on its navy.


But the Japanese are saying they are lying, USA, the damage to the Japanese ship came from the air, outside the gulf …. outside the straights of Hormuz just where the USA has a carrier force sitting there with a hive of drones above it, a permanent 24 hours a day 4 fighters in the air, off said aircraft carrier AWAC radar planes and 3 satellites let alone the escort of the carriers assets looking at this region …. the attack on this Japanese ship, clearly from the air, I doubt a bloody person flying a kite near the USA carrier force sitting just outside the gulf would not be MISSED.

This is not an unreasonable, nor illogical nor even a stretch of a basic knowledge of what happens with naval operations that anything is NOT recorded or missed.


USA wants war, so be it. Vietnam and Every drubbing the USA has had since then times about 3 is the outcome. Korea 60 years latter is still a mess. Cuba well that went well. Bay of Pigs a classic.


Heaven help us !!

I note the UK is backing these absurd claims. Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?




<h1 class="western">Witness Exposes Pompeo's Lies About Iran Incident</h1> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6nWDVhxJGI...WL&index=14




On this last one … Japanese calling USA a liar. Hit by a flying object, NOT a mine or Limpet mine to be exact, one that's magnetically placed on the side of a resting ship as opposed to a naval mine which is 100 times the size.




Japanese ship hit ABOVE the waterline, by flying objects. UFOs ?




FBI has been called. X files re opened and Scully and Mulder called in. Another TV series.


Clearly the Japanese hit NOT hit by Limpet mine nor a naval mine, NOR a torpedo but a flying object. One I might add encroaching upon USA carrier task force with 50 planes and 15 escort ships, 3 AWACS land based radar in support, 5 Naval versions of it, around 50 drones, 15 helicopters via escorts and 3 if not a lot more satellites looking down from above.
Oh really ... tell me another lie Mr Trump ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 03:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

It now has been revealed, the ship and video in question was the ONE not attacked via Limpet or magnetically placed mines but the Japanese one where Iran rescued the sailors, when it was attacked from the air, above the waterline and NO limpet was seen below the waterline.

USA clarified this first lie, Not Trump who still claims it was them removing a mine. what a dummy .... Japan the owner of the tanker has come out and called it a LIE.

here are a few other views and balanced ones.
First … is the best one.

Where Are the Skeptics as the Drums Roll for War with Iran? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZpR6x_-Y4w...ndex=8&t=0s


"Zero Credibility" Progressives Rip Pompeo For His Shameful Press Conference On Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY8xIAmkBEU...=WL&index=8


Trump Faking Iran Tanker Evidence? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUOi7G2yLag...=WL&index=9


A shot out of a drone via the first camera inside a phone …. is the line I love in this one.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Oh ...
more stuff out.
USA wants a war. it cant win .... a distraction to keep Trump in ?
Bolton ...

10 years ago .... IRAN regime change ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dav-FsIbeTw...dex=10&t=0s
7 years ago . regime change ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FbYA54_PL8
2 years ago ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy_TEpXVpP4...ndex=9&t=0s
and on and on it goes.


why ... it was clearly limpet mine mine. ...3-5 kg explosives

cost less than $1,000- to produce.

Only way to cause damage as seen last month was being placed whilst ship is NOT moving and that is UAE waters or Saudi where the limpet was placed. But please dazzle me with your view.

I can elaborate as to WHY without doubt the mines were placed whilst Stopped and either at anchor or wharf.

In the meantime the marine capability of Iran is not some idiots in a bathtub.

Here is a decent link. Be bloody afraid for what the USA clearly wants.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...0...zyTXi64CVyZMhU2
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 07:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

oOOH BUT THERE IS MORE ....
Despite my missing Mr Burns icon now on the new site. No PM ,,, and SEEMINGLY NOW WAY TO FIX IT ON THIS NEW SITE ...


Here is part two .... I do have part three as well in mind. It involves flying objects, the X files and FBI called in !! Tomorrow ...
Howdy … again.

Ask and you shall receive.
Reuters report with pictures.

If you believe them mind you. If anything I am in disbelief for many reasons.

Grainy black and white out of focus. Obviously taken from above, via a drone I suspect and according to the timeline in daylight !!

I have watched this repeatedly and some questions.

First the supposition it was some malfunctioning limpet mine with explosives attached to the hull being removed, is insulting and implying incompetence of the Iranian military already.

USA claims this as the smoking gun ? Well …. lets be impartial.

I don't KNOW but this raises MORE doubts than its factual content. YES an Iranian boat approaches the side of the stricken tanker.

I have a 20 MP camera with I think 6 times optical zoom and 100 times digital and can READ a newspaper if I desired at 2 kms away. A drone, one that uses facial recognition to bomb from above has far far superior optics.

So why this grainy fuzzy rubbish on this link ?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-iran...e-idUSKCN1TF071

It is without doubt taken from a drone due to the VIEW inside the small boat and elevation. Unless the USA warship was right alongside supposedly when they removed this OBJECT …. the drone is the source.

Now lets look at location of where this boat pulls up. Some knowledge and common sense needed here. On a large tanker or ship the ONLY place to get on or off at sea is NOT at the BOW/ Front or Stern, as any sea will have them rising up and down like a yo yo. So when say a harbour pilot gets onto a tanker or ocean liner he enters and exits from the middle of the ship.

A stricken tanker, exiting to boats via a ladder down the side, the only place to exit …. the MIDDLE of the ship. Look up in the video, where the Iranian small boat pulls up ? Right above it the railing has a gap … where the crew obviously exited and likely the ladder still sits against the HULL. So the location where they pulled up is totally consistent with them going … “Hey is there anyone still aboard ?” We ONLY see them as they pull away I might add.

Now look as the actual small Iranian boat. Note on the side two round rubber I presume tyre type things to protect the boat as it pulls along side wharves and so on. If you have ever seen a Tug boat with massively reinforced bows it has often tractor tyres in that case to protect the Tanker or Liner which will get damaged not the TUG and in the case of any small boat, say a harbour Pilot boat approaching an ocean liner to get the pilot aboard the opposite is the case. The Smaller more fragile boat needs buffers and fenders so to absorb some of the shock of say a 2cm steel hull rising and falling verses a fiberglass boat. That is why there were tyres along the side, but this BOAT was going NOSE on to the tanker even clearly seen via fuzzy crap drone pictures. Any small boat owner or novice knows you DEPLOY buffers and fenders as you approach and then when you depart they are removed.

There is NO way in the world any naval officer or even midshipman on small boats WOULD NOT DEPLOY this protection. Without it, a buffer your front end could get ripped off.

I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown even PRIOR to the next bit leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….

Now I mentioned the arrogant assumption and implication that it was a limpet explosive mine that malfunctioned that was being removed. Insulting and arrogant as always the USA view of others. They just happened to place it BELOW the egress and likely exit point one which clearly was used when the sailors left the ship ?

So lets go on. A malfunctioning bomb. Oh bliss. Lets get 10 people standing around said mine when its removed supposedly and then THROW it on the deck. That's clearly what occurred. Lets all stand around malfunctioning ordinance and a bomb, throw it on the deck and then ONE actually kicks the same thing out of the way.



Are you kidding me ? Seriously ? Is this a joke ? Is the USA so arrogant as to serve a grainy video that supposedly was taken in daylight and suggest Iranians are that incompetent that firstly they had a malfunctioning limpet, then knowing it was malfunctioning instead of having one or two people close to it, in case it explodes …. they throw it clearly on the deck with … let me count … at least 10 people standing as close as they can to an unexploded malfunctioning BOMB.

Gee I did go through the fact that Iran is far from incompetent despite this in a military sense. Its not even absurd this USA crap, its insulting.

I cannot believe anyone dealing with explosives would throw something on the deck then kick it. I can however believe that would be the case with a rubber or plastic buffer or fender to protect the BOW of a small boat verses a massive tanker going up and down.

Of course one can never know but on the balance of probabilities and the fact that NONE of the idiots leading this USA side have any military experience of substance and clearly no common sense, serving this as proof ?

I am insulted. Of course I have no idea if they did it, Iran, but this video, is what it is. I would call the USA ambassador in immediate and ask for a please explain !!

Then again we are gutless sadly as a nation verses USA. I wish is was not so.

I repeat again ... I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….
All views are my own opinions. No guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Consult a professional investment advisor before investing. Or maybe listen to someone who has no qualifications disputing irrefutable facts on the internet and become poor.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 07:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Sorry don't like my missing icon ...
Don't like new venue ...

this first about Iran v USA .... observations.


Iran Is not Iraq
Lets kick the ball off ...

WARS and by this I mean big ones, are bad for markets. Shocking if they are world ones.
In 1937 as Europe headed there Equities got slammed, Battle of Britain, even more. Pearl Harbor saw another PREMIUM demand and stocks shed another 20%.

Iran is NOT Iraq.

Iraq has been a debacle and its population is 33% of Iran. It was and has been a debacle since the second gulf invasion.

Iraq had three main groups one being the Kurds to the North, and the other the two types of Muslins with both not liking each other.

Iraq was and is basically flat. Iran resembles Afghanistan with mountains.
It has a standing army of 500,000 and 900,000 with reserves.
It is a unified one religion state.
Militarily it is at least TWICE the peak Iraq ever was.

Afghanistan and 18 years latter the ISIS and Taliban control more of the nation than they did in 2001. MORE !!

USA failed spectacularly on both counts. Totally.

Invading or making war on Iran which would be insane to take on 83 million people who already faced a proxy war not so long ago when Iraq backed by both the Soviets and USA invaded, or tried to and Iran was left with no weapons and sent waves of humans armed with tank grenades to stop bloody tanks and did so ... it seems the lesson has been forgotten or lost outside IRAN .... the HUMAN sacrifice and needless loss was insane.

Of course the Shah of Iran installed by the UK and USA and his removal and subsequent hostages of the USA embassy will never be seemingly forgotten.

Much like the Cuban removal of USA interests and this relationship has gone backwards under Trump .... So too Venezuela and its nationalizing of some assets, never forgotten and the current moves have more to do with OIL there than anything else.

Iran is NOT a saint, I am not suggesting this. It is however NOT so repressive as other Muslim nations and women drive cars, without faces covered.

I also hasten to add. I don't KNOW who damaged the ships. I do however hold great .... MASSIVE and well founded skepticism about these events as reported.

First attack was reported as a Mine attack on 4 tankers.
Being fairly well versed in military tactics and capacities, a naval mine of which Iran has 3,000 PLUS modern ones and 3,000 older ones typically are designed to stop an armored warship or inflict considerable damage on a fast moving well .... protected vessel.

They contain on average 500 kg of explosives and on a smaller warship the impacts would be devastating. On say an Aircraft carrier with 100 watertight compartments, much less so and it would take I suspect 10 or more.

These warships and mines are designed to hit fast moving at 30 knots plus targets so 50 km an hour .... or subs which move slower but with reinforced hulls similar power is needed.

So the first 4 hit a month ago, reported for weeks ... weeks that mines were involved. I knew at first glace NO MINE ... naval mine other than a tinker toy was involved. The damage was clearly CONTACT ... as would be with a mine and the one with a hole in its rear the explosives involved were 3-5 KG or explosives NOT a mine with 500kg. It literally would blow the rear end off the ship.

Tankers moving at about half the speed of a warship. some with double hulls but NOT armored or reinforced, if they hit a contact or magnetic mine with 500 kg it would have literally blown the end off a tanker or for the other three damaged BROKEN and shattered the spine of the ship. Clearly they were NOT and never were MINES and it took two weeks if not more to it now being limpet mines which is consistent with the damage. A payload of say 3-10 kg of explosives attached magnetically with timer to go off.

With the degree of satellite surveillance and aerial surveillance in the regions it is NOT credible that it was missed now knowing someone swam to the side of the ship or rear and attached the bombs.

Anyhow .... call me cynical ... with cause ... weapons of mass destruction which DID not exist rings in my mind.

I don't know, but I am skeptical on this basis.
The three behind this ... Bolton who avoided military service with a passion and did serve in the national guard to avoid Vietnam, Trump who totally avoided it and lastly Pompeo who did serve and even went to West Point served as an engineer for 5 years with the tanks reaching rank of Captain. This contrasts with say past people with 30 year careers or Colin Powell with 35 years and a 4 star general with active .. service ... NONE of the above have been anywhere near it.

I would add Bolton and his views on Iran well documented and him boasting as he was paid in 2016 a sum of $40,000 to speak at a USA based Iranian lobby group he would bring about regime change by 2018 in Iran.

Stuff me !!
I would point out the 9/11 attacks were a disgrace in every sense but the fact that 15 of 18 terrorists came from Saudi Arabia which practices the other type of Islam religion seems to have been forgotten as to the funding coming 100% from Saudi Arabia as well.

It had not a bloody thing to do with Iran.
I repeat I don't think for a moment they are saints .... and I have no idea if they did these attacks. No idea ... I merely mention extreme caution and skepticism and Hard facts prior to any decision being made.

Then again war forever ... its the USA motto for the Military Industrial Oligarchy complex.

Iran had a valid non proliferation on nuclear deal working, then walks in Trump and tears it up.
Is he insane ?

Iran air force I am sure the USA could handle quite easily.
It actually has over 30 ultra quite submarines diesel electric which I am sure again, over time USA could take care of, but not prior to them causing mayhem. A sub lying dogoo on the seabed, is quite hard to locate. I did mention 3,000 odd modern sea mines and around 3,000 older less capable but still valid mines. Torpedo's over 2200 is the estimate from Janes ...

Navy ... well again USA could handle that easily.
What I suspect it would not handle is the 1,500 short and medium range missiles. Sure they could get a few but with terrain and hiding holes well prepared, these would wreak terror in an all out conflict.

Again, if it was Iran ... something needs to be done, but .... its not your normal situation.

As for 500,000 fairly competent ground forces and oodles of armored vehicles sure ... at a cost ... they would be able to reduce them. Say costing minimum 2 trillion ... WITHOUT going into Iran. Going into Iran itself given its terrain and the past of Iran is a shame story of western intervention and despot leaders ... Shah of Iran ... and the IRAN IRAQ war which Iraq started .... you would be bloody mad to even think about it.

But here we have idiots with no military experience ... a moron on twitter and a war even the USA can NOT POSSIBLY WIN.
It would be the defeat the Soviets got in Afghanistan, the drubbing the USA got in Vietnam. and the humiliation in Korea when China stepped in backing the North. Multiply that by TWO and that's a low estimate on the stuff these imbeciles are provoking.

Russia I might add is at a 30 year relationship low and the Chinese about the same with similar issues and will they stand aside ?

It will be the LAST war the USA will wage if it chose to go in on the ground. It would be inadvisable in the extreme without CONCRETE irrefutable evidence to even go via the air. The propensity to inflict damage OUTSIDE Iran's borders is considerable. A half hearted effort ... the response could and I suspect would be diabolical to shipping in the gulf and most oil refineries and capacity in the region.

Moving on.
This latest attack.
Torpedoes ?
Really ?

Iran had a lot of them. Designed with shaped charges which focus the explosion and kinteic impact a torpedo on a smaller warship, armored and traveling at 50 km an hour is devastating. On a tanker going HALF that speed, not armored, with the thing full of volatile fuel would likely break the back of the back of the ship immediately.

So clearly NOT a real torpedo. Maybe James bond movie type mini torpedo and his Lamborghini the underwater one ... was there.

It is of course possible .... there is a lighter type but well it seems unlikely.
Limpets mines again ?

I stress I don't KNOW ... but clearly any even basic knowledge tells us it was NOT a normal torpedo ...

I note the USA claims they picked up survivors yet Iranian TV said it did and HAD PICTURES and came to the aid of the stricken vessels.

Does this sound credible or logical, the person or nation supposedly doing it is saving them ?

I just have no idea. I do know when I see the survivors and damage on TV they contradict the USA version. Damage clearly was NOT a full Torpedo.

I would add Japanese PM was in Iran at the time and suggesting they launch an attack when he was there is, well ... even more ... stretching things.

Someone did it. I have NO idea if it was Iran or James Bond ... I merely wished to raise some potential outcomes. NONE of them good.

USA seems to think they can bully everyone from China to even Australia over tariffs and threats. twittering whilst on the toilet an invasion of Venezuela and Cuba to yet again be embargoed is the mad mad world we live in.

Time will tell.

Iran is NOT to be trifled with on a military basis. Its .... scary in every way.

Here is another view via U tube.
I repeat I have NO idea who did what. NONE ... I don't like Bolton as a blowhard warmongering idiot as is Trump and Pompeo.

If god forbid the trigger is pulled, it cannot be won by the USA. CANT. The cost would be diabolical.

Anyhow happy happy happy and await the latest VERSION of the truth as to what hit the ships and who picked them up.
Iran War Drum Beats Are THUNDEROUS


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmiCnYMOvWI...ndex=6&t=0s

Impacts on markets whilst ignored .... and USA rose overnight, this will make Vietnam look like a picnic.

Emma is a good impartial reporter on these issues.

Take care

I have a few others I may magically share ... relevant in the extreme if it goes further to all asset prirces.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Feb 15 2019, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy,

Out come the analysts reports, valuation is #2.80-2.90 from the ones I got. Share price has stopped for now going down !! Amazing what they are thinking when the head of TLS came out and in the AFR is saying they make NOTHING from reselling NBN plans. Not any motivation to sell them and even worse, the whole bunch is in the same place, selling NBN for no or little margins. As such, of course they are asking for a price rise so they can eat !!

On one hand if it occurs, the price rise, some profits, on the other not good for competition overall as it will make those with their own networks worth MORE. So I suppose I understand why TLS has stopped dropping for now, but its a bloody long way from any rise and a political nightmare already the whole NBN. Basically don't expect the price to rise any time soon as its a political football and we have an election coming.

Basically heads they loose tails they loose for the NBN and TLS the stupid hope of some price rise that NEVER EVER is going to occur until late 2019 if ever, is not a good risk.

Cheers

Mark K
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Feb 14 2019, 01:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Wow,

well, a long affair with this stock I have had. Hate it, love it, hate it and on and on it goes.T1 back in the dark ages like most government floats, a steal, then T3 was rubbish. Back in 2000 in a stupid tech boom ... up over $9- I think it stunk, and a long long wait till future fund stupidly dumped its holding at $2.60 ish and then, THEN NBN was a great deal with the 30 plus cents for along time fully franked at over 10% yield and then 13% with credits, one could NOT ignore it. I sold out, early, as I tend to do and amazed it went over 20% higher up over $6- whilst the NBN and underlying ground was evaporating.
...Now we are here, 2019. NBN is what it is, an expensive joke. Seriously a joke and the write-down the government is going to eat will make anyone cry. Technology advances and with mobile broadband in the middle of nowhere, by Telstra at 50 MBS v NBN not a hell of a lot faster and sucky coverage, TLS eventually will prevail. NOT for a while however !! I suspect at some stage NBN is taken over by TLS and the folly of a goverment run bureaucracy, called the NBN with incompetence in the extreme will be dumped as a bad joke. Even if this does NOT occur, the 5G v the 4G 50 MPS .... will soon be lightening fast 200 MBS plus and NBN a whiote elephant in many respects. For NOW, TLS in my opinion NOT a BUY.
... The rally when TPG or whomever it was that was going to build a mobile network pulled out was IDIOTIC. So so so stupid the market at times always amazes me. The stock impact, on TLS earnings was MINIMAL and the stock rallies over 10%.
...
For NOW, an opinion is that TLS struggles with dividend income and the price here even though its off 2% at 3.14 is STILL 10% too high. TELCO's are risky and at this price, at a 16 cent dividend IT SUCKS WIND. The rally from 2.80 to 3.20 was always stupid when this result was always on the cards and expected. UNTIL the share price represents a dividend close to 6% or $2.80, or LOWER I am not a fan and will just watch and wait.


Good Luck


Mark K
  Forum: By Share Code

kahuna1
Posted on: Feb 6 2019, 02:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy,
with RBA gov speaking and not saying much and state of the Union ....
I note today, as expected the banks a bit off the boil. I do think we are facing a very long road of litigation v the banks. Almost a total destruction of mortgage brokers, similar with investment advisors and even highly qualified financial planners. The latter have an undergrad and post grad degree !!

I still think banks are a buy, especially in the wake of the RBA head speaking for the first time in 21 years in Sydney. Macro economic wise, we are slowing a bit along with China and the rest of the world. As such, rates on hold for some time.

I hope for some more retracement for the banks and just buy them back at 2,3,4% lower levels irrespective of even a worst case scenario of multiple court cases, the bottom line will not be impacted too much.

State of the Union highlighted the extreme polarization of the USA. We have over the next few weeks so much noise going on, that, I will go deaf if I listen. We have Korean madman meeting late Feb, China trade deal, which really means bugger all to anyone, then we have USA unlikely passing the bill to build a wall. Then when one thinks its all over, in March, the debt ceiling needs to be raised as the USA hits 22 trillion. I suspect a lot of fights.

State of the Union a disgrace, seriously a disgrace to minorities and wheeling out people who one COULD only stand and applaud was, what it was. Citing late term abortions, illegal in all states UNLESS the baby is either very unlikely to live or threatens the mother are a mere 1,200 out of 700,000 abortions. On and on it went, USA and D DAY ... whilst greatly appreciate their efforts and sacrifice, it was a delusional rewrite of history where USA on D-Day was 46% of the total forces and did not join the war till post Pearl Harbor. Another dig at EU and NATO and spending 100 billion more, between 28 nations with a GDP of 21 trillion is NOT EVEN THE INFLATION RATE .... its HALF of ONE percent or 0.5% !!

I was reminded More of a Hitler rally than anything else. USA USA rah rah rah .... these billionaires are so seriously delusional that it astounds me. Announcing 500 million to beat USA childhood cancer, whilst anything is GOOD .... when your healthcare is 3 times the cost of ours, and your 15 times the size, lets adjust the number ..... it was 11.11 Million or BUGGER ALL ....

Nope all eaten up by the Republicans and whilst, in the meantime, Rome crumbles.

Sorry, but things ARE changing and I was proud to see the women in WHITE the Democrat Women, its going to take some time to undo what is a seriously delusional state of affairs.

have fun
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 04:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Oh well.

that was a short silence ... firstly, Iron Ore keeps being bid up, so even FMG gets dragged along.

Royal commission was, well. a joke. Expecting something, given the extreme weakness in banks of late, out come the report with, NOTHING. So whilst cautious into it, and kicking myself at the peaks today for being so cautious, I just couldn't help myself and gave what I had back. When Westpac is up over 10% off its lows and into mid range, in a single day or 36 hours, its time to pause. Not far behind for ANZ.

Whist nothing directly against banks, ASIC has been given a very clear mandate to prosecute, not dilly dally around. THe report, written clearly by a bloody lawyer was, sadly silly. One hand, to get a financial planner jump through more hoops when they have already what is a masters in Accounting is silly. Doing it to other advisors, well whilst welcome. and overdue, the delay and allowed time is on one hand silly. Other side, is that if you want advice, NOW, there is not going to be any decent advice around and in this making the tasks for awful performing bigger funds who are shocking to keep doing thier rubbish.

Mortgage brokers, bloody hell, same thing, makes it easier for banks in the end taking them out and trailing commissions to be replaced with what. Essentially virtually every mortgage broker, share broker and yep, there are some decent ones, they a ll are thinking about becoming truck drivers. Not really a good thing for anyone. New rules on rural loans, will I suspect either add to the cost of them massively or dry up whats available. Again not a great thing.

In the meantime, I suspect a very dark cloud over the banks despite a get out of jail free for now. The pressure is ON and will I suspect make them all blink when eventually one of the many things goes to court, its going to cost a lot more than ever before in fines. Again, not obvious but when you set up layers and layers of new bureaucracies and new rules on top of a mountain of new paperwork already needed, its NOT a good thing. Its a bad thing.

Having at various times held most of the licenses and holding the correct qualifications and so on, the amount of paperwork doubled in the last 5 years for someone trying to advise you on investing or super. Its now about to double again. What sadly was starting to emerge prior to this mish mash, was investors given advice turning around and making their advisors lives hell even when best advice was given. Sometimes stocks actualyl go DOWN.

In the end, the old advice that will be given wil lbe general advice, non specific advice and for someone not well versed in portfolios or diversification of risk and long term goals, a negative outcome is virtually assured whilst getting rid of, YES the crooks ... about 10% of them. Not a thing done about shitty super funds that are merged into others and cover the woeful performance of the fund manager. Similar on the excessive fees they charge verses very poor performance. I have npo issue paying 2% if the fund outperforms the market by 4%. In effect, 1% of it is costs and the other 1%, it about 20% of the NET 5% ,,, minus 1% so 4% out performance.

If they linked the fees to performance verses a benchmark, well, that would have been amusing.
What actually did amaze me about the Royal Commission is whilst ALlianz got a well deserved smack, and legal nightmare, their actions in Workers Compensation are far far worse than any case they heard. Then again. Workers Comp is state run ....

The other big missing thing, being an old FX boy is FX !! The rates the banks get away with today verses 20 years ago are TRIPLE the spread. Instead of the AUD being at 0.7220 and being able to buy USA at say 0.7170 or LESS than 1% BELOW the actual spot rate, todays ripoff rate for CBA ? Bugger me ... well RBA did not act so AUD was 0.7230 most of the day, its now 0.7280. Using the first at worst, one would EXPECT to any get zapped 1% so 0.7210 at worst !! OR this mornings rate so 0.7150.

Well ... hello MR RIPOFF CBA .... you suck, truly suck as does the dummy Royal commissioner.

https://www.commbank.com.au/personal/intern...ange-rates.html

It will change as time goes by ....
Here is a live FX rate link ...
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates

Todays Spot this morning at 0.7220 was met with CBA spot selling rate for USD ... 0.6947.

So you loose ... 0.0273 or 3.78% !!

What wankers these are, lets see what ANZ give us ? 0.6964 ... you MAKE ME SICK .... NAB 0.6932

ARE THESE GREEDY PRICKS SERIOUS ? Of course they are, a low estiamte and an educated one, its collusion upon collusion between them and a MASSIVE PROFIT centre that sees a minimum of 125 million NET on the sale side and another 40 million crossing a 5% SPREAD when people try and sell foreign currnecy. SO one side, they CHARGE to get a card, or USA notes, SO NO real big cost. YES they may have to have the notes on HAND, but when your being given 30% of what you SELL at 5% HIGHER in fact selling notes is 0.7577 at CBA a 8.6% SPREAD ....

So between the big 4 they make 3.8% on 125 million a day and then lets day 8% on 40 million when people sadly have to do the opposite. Wow, 3.2 million plus 4.75 so lets be 8 million a day, say 2335 days a year, a mere 1.88 billion and its ALL JAM MONEY. to get notes last time I was charged to add insult to injury $16- MORE ....

How the hell, this was missed, let alone the MONEY GOUGER rates on credit cards which most hover at 20% as they were when rates were 8% NOT 1.5%.

The end result should be a removal of the FX licenses of the Banks !! To get a decent rate, even on $10,000 is very hard, once you get to $100,000- you get one closer to reality. One might go, well the average is not a lot that is exchanged, and 3.8% on $1,000- is a mere $38-, Just multiply it many times over and the average exchanged is closer to the $2,000 mark.

Oh well, whinge for the day. For now, banks were on fire, Suspect, as time goes on and some more stuff added to WHAT is new, the shine will soon slow down. One hand, great dividends and hence why I owned them, but, vulnerable in the extreme due to gouging on credit cards and exchange rates and various other high margin products.

Not about to chase this one higher, the banks, and will let the dust settle with Donald and his speech tonight which, is a WHO CARES .... and suspect some behavior that IS NOT NORMAL during it. Usually its clapp clap clap and being that old, I remember the first time they did standing ovations, this time maybe the Democrats kneel !! I was thinking maybe they walked out when he gasbags on the state of the Union. NO JUST KNEEL .... in protest, over his rubbish.

Things are getting more polarized over there every day.

Take care
Mark
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Feb 1 2019, 06:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy,

RAH RAH RAH .... USA USA USA ..... zzzzzzz

Seriously, I know the market had a bad December, and yep the rules go out the window with the plunge protection team in the USA, but seriously ?

UP 8% in January ? We went up 4% v USA at 8%

Basically the USA fed is muzzled, ignore the shutdown, ignore the capex numbers did not move. Apparently, well its China China right now as it was the USA fed a few days ago.

NOISE and our market is about as related to the USA as China. Or its becoming that way, the Chinese market which has a mind of its own, our market did a lot better in Dec than the USA and of course its massive spike even into early 2019, has stopped like a ton of bricks.

So where did we end January ? Up 218 points or less than half the USA.

Obviously we await the Royal commission report into banks out after close Monday, but, being suspicious, as its the only way to go, the action has been obvious of late. What I mean is that WBC lost 5% in two days to its lows this morning before recovering, but its not rallying much. I don't know what the royal commission will recommend but so far the banks have been hammered into hell. All down in the bottom 10% of their recent ranges and so far away from the highs its insane.

Given the market action and the fact the report whilst NOT public had to be printed, it would appear I did not get my advance copy and it seems it might not be very kind to the banks !!

What is pretty clear, is the insanity of the USA side. One hand the lower end of the population is being squeezed like a pip. The other is the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans and the MEDIA is shocking. Never seen this before, NEVER. FOX is a disgrace and its reporting makes Trump look honest. When you have 3 people in the USA with more than the 180 million lowest, its insane. Same for $400- expense for an emergency the FED now estimates that 40% of all Americans cannot meet this. Something si very very wrong with this picture over there.


Our side, I read with disgust the Tax office report and are they BLIND ? Or just being bribed ? Microsoft when before the Senate had sales of USD 2.2 billion in Australia now 3 billion AUD .... so i go to the ATO tax report on what tax has been paid ? The income was a mere 500 million in sales NOT 3 billion and from the 2012 senate committee the doofus Gates had there admitted all sales are put through Singapore and a tax haven then Bermuda. I look at their accounts ,,,, a margin of near 25% on sales ... so 750 million PROFIT out of Australia and tax owing at 225 million and they paid less than 10% of it ?

Really ?

Apple is worse .... Google and Facebook again the same ... easy to reconstruct sales in Australia and its been illegal since 1977 to TRANSFER PRICE this stuff overseas. Then again a whole lot of Apple cards seem to have made people forget this. Whilst the ATO has tried, its got one year at HALF the expected amount and they went back to NORMAL.


All an aside for now.

Times eventually are changing in the USA irrespective of the wishes of the elite. That NO TAX was paid when funds were meant to be repatriated there from stolen tax overseas is telling. I suspect TRUMP is forced to give a special amnesty even lower then the 15% rate he did.

For now, USA fed is muzzled. Trump makes Nixon look like a saint. Direction of USA market is irrelevant as 30 nations including Austrlaia are about to make life for tax thieves a lot harder. VERY VERY large swing about to occur in the USA which will take TIME. Likely 10 years, but some very long serving politicians were unseated in absolute surprise losses in 2018. Odds ranged from 6/1 to 50/1 and the unseated were spending at 10 times the rate of the people who got elected and kicked them out. To change senate will take 2-3 elections so 6 eyars. I doubt much changes even if Democrats elect a president I sadly think Bernie is too old and some more moderate corporate Democrat much like Obama who took 65 million from Goldman Sachs and then 35 million from Walmart family the Waltons and whilst a nice guy, did bugger all for health and welfare and pensions and so on.

All an aside for Australia.

We have low rates for a long time I believe. We face an idiotic change to franking credits, it SHOULD be means tested to say 50 k or more income verses hitting self funded pensioners. Anyhow, whatever the royal commission does, spank the banks has already occured and if rates remain here, which seems likely for 2-3 years, low rates, earning 5.6.7 even 8% is a good thing.


On the mix of the market, TLS did a stupid rally, whilst TPG is not going to set up a mobile network, Telstra is hopeless and the NBN deal is not what they expected so dividends will, irrespective of TPG likely fall and fall till when I suspect the government will wave the white flag of the NBN as it was stupid anyhow and even 4g gives me 60MBS mobile data and 5 G try 200 MBS ... the plan was, well ... stupid.


I note FMG is rallying like a thing on fire. Sure VAle and Brazil was awful, and good for their overall Iron Ore price, last time I looked and it was a few days ago, the HIGH END high grade Iron ore was on fire an dNOT so much for FMG. Its got lower grade rusty dirt. Whilst longer term have always liked it, was amazed when it recently went below $4- and just as astounded its up here.


All the rest ? Well, housing side is sucking wind and it happens after a billion zillion years of rallying. The RBA and APRA did smash on the brakes and rightly so as did various governments making it much more expensive for foreign buyers. As to the long term, its still expensive here verses income and whilst the slide in the banks may be somewhat worry worts on that front. the big 4 are less exposed than some of the smaller ones which strangely have done better.

For now, we just meander along. USA like announces the BEST DEAL EVER ... with China ... then With north Korea ... YAWN. Why ? Well with loss of control of the lower house, there is a surprise coming in about 6 weeks. Possibly prior to that DUMP declares an emergency and builds a wall around the White House so he cant get out !! I speak of a very large wave that, well, is going to make the close of the Government look I suspect very much like a tea party.

I speak of course about the debt ceiling. In the USA. U know the country that is about to reach its peak population in 2025 when the baby boomers start departing in vast numbers and with record low birth rates, not much immigration legally and illegals, well ... so instead of having 500 million in the USA by 2050 its going to be 300 million, or LESS than they have now, shhh its a secret. Its so we could get a tax cut of 1.5 trillion for the rich.

Amazing place. Right now in Senate three senators are proposing a bill to slash all estate tax over 50 million which effects a mere 1,700 families verses 125 million families. Of course, you may have heard Sanders and others talking a 705 tax on the Rich, THIS IS USA not here. The rich here PAY MORE and higher rates, but NOT the USA Gates pays 15% on about 5% of his income. Anyhow, all hell will break loose in 6 weeks I suspect. ITs going to be amusing and a lot of noise. OH Warren another in the 2020 race proposes a tax of 2% then 3% on the wealth they own. Nothing against billionaires, NOT here or in most nations, they PAY tax !! Not the USA.

Oh the event ... in March in the USA ... the DEBT CEILING ... it needs to be raised to accommodate a 1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019.

I will end with a happy 22 trillion dollar debt birthday party. USA has added the GDP of BRAZIL to its debt pile since Trump got elected. NEVER EVER before at this stage of an economic cycle has a government been spending at 5% deficit. Things are sadly NOT what they appear, USA stocks at record highs but outside the top 10% .... a mere 5% of shares are owned by the lower 95% in the USA. This is a factual number.

Not sure what the hell to do. Our Government, and most EU and other nations fiscal responsibility and balancing budgets in EU has been a priority for now over 10 years. Ours, same thing and with a mere 15% NET debt Federally, we have one of the lowest in the world. Then again if one goes to the IMF they DON'T include even RBA assets as an offset to the debt or the FUTURE fund. They in the case of Singapore report their debt to GDP at 100% of GDP and ignore the 250% of GDP the Singapore govt funds hold in overseas assets. Talk about BS ....

Why the hell we are paying 100 million to the IMF or World bank or OECD when the numbers are so Oligarchy influenced is like how we bend over and let Apple pay NO TAX here. I might add OECD a mere 15 million has identical numbers like the IMF and World bank and on tax collection they DO NOT INCLUDE ... superannuation which is by definition a tax, overseen by the Tax office not able to be touched till age 67 ... and they don't even include GST so it kaes the USA collection of 30% of GDP in taxes, we apparently only collect 27% NOT the 39% reality like most EU nations.


Even more than now !! With the stupid tax coming in ... Imputation. I take 10 APPLE $100- cards and a new Iphone to vote this in !!

Anyhow, USA has its future crumbling and in many ways I thank Trump. Thank him for breaking so many promises and his twitter account with 57 million followers, 40,000 tweets from his deranged mind, He follows ? 47 people and he has liked ? & posts in 10 years !!

The favorite twitter account of the up and coming and I suspect a big big name in the USA in the future, she has a growing base, not even top 500 but its GROWING and growing quick. She follows 2,000 people and in 10 years has done about 2 posts a day and ... thanks ... or LIKES of other posts or comments ? Well over 10,000-posts she has liked. She and I mean of course AOC, has been adding people at the rate of 200k a month whist is not massive, but astounding for a 29 year old first term in office person.

One person preaches to the serfs. and the other. interacts, listens and behaves like someone who gives a FIRETRUCK.

This upcoming debt ceiling should have had the credit rating agencies in panic mode. but like the IMF and World Bank and OECD and basically much all else, its all about the interests of the Few. AUSTRALIA should no longer be a member of each of these. We should prosecute credit rating agencies for IMPROPER taking of money under false pretences. That the USA has the same credit rating as here with 110% debt to GDP, collects 75% of the tax and is ABOUT to hit peak population is EASY for even a blind person to see an issue.

China whilst not a fan of the regime, if asked the last place I would like to live it would be there, under their thumb. Love Chinese here, not a racist thing but China just passed the USA in something else. Its retail sales are MORE than the USA !! MORE.

I do wish the Australian government WOULD GROW SOME BALLS and say NO !! NO to tax thieves taking a whopping 15 billion in unpaid taxes. MAKE IT ILLIGAL with jail, terms is where they are going, but so slowly its killing me. Since Gates has parked his money in a charity, paying no tax to anyone, inviting him here and arresting him is pointless as he doesn't own any Microsoft shares anymore. As to his tax paid at 12% v the then current 39.7 tax rate is and was an issue for the USA, but a sad joke on the lower 99.99%. His actions in Australia, defrauding the nation of 200 million a year for 30 years, cannot go on.


Enough. Its a strange strange world. Not a peep about the USA massive rally in January. Bad news was met with a rally. Government shuts down, lets rally. Every second day as mindless drones listen to Twitter and Fed is backing off. Again and again a rally. Now China deal, it gets wheeled out again and again.

Its about as relevant to Australia as, well, Kim Kardashian. What is relevant to our future and that of the EU, is this tax evasion stealing 1-2% of tax UNPAID anywhere. Not to the USA, not to the nation where they sell their stuff.

For now, our market and currency and whole economy is about as important as the lower 99% in the USA. We are in fact, a new caste system, SCUMBAGS as Paul Keating would say. Irrelevant in the extreme. Our stock market and whole economy just like when the Asian Financial crisis hit, we were sold down the toilet, DESPITE … having at the time ZERO NET FOREIGN DEBT and federal government.

In some ways, I feel like an ant, caught by some monster child with his magnifying glass and I can smell something burning.

For now, with a market I suspect prices a bit too low, I am cautious as ever to the issues overseas. Sure I expect some deal with China and so what, same with Korea, again so what. China and its long term reaction to having its largest tech company held to ransom remains to be seen. The Fiscal side outside the USA is in good order compared to them. Then again so much total BS going on that, well. Sorting it out are explaining it are irrelevant. Sadly 80% of people who voted for DUMP still support him. STILL …

For our side, well buying some shares yielding 6% v 2% at best and sitting on your hands is always a good thing. Each year, your miles ahead. Buying with franking credits something with an effective yield of 10% even better.

I await like most the Royal Commission report and it appears from market action that some more Bank Spanking is in order !!

Back when something changes in 6 weeks


Take care

Mark K









  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 29 2019, 06:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Yep fine,

thanks. Just digressing as it will be I suspect a driver in future investments as time goes on.
I note you didn't like the left leaning of my other stuff .... its where USA is going, thankfully I might add.


Trump merely exposed how uncaring and totally immoral the 0.1% are on most things.


Cheers
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 28 2019, 08:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi Why only 200 million tons removed plating trees ... vs 2 billion ? One may have noted the apparent mistake in the above post. Or below in this case
Reason being is that trees die and rot or are burnt and capture of CO2 whilst good, is NOT forever and a cycle begins if we plant more trees, one that well ... goes round and round and actually unless frozen and captured or CO2 removed, the gain is not a lot about 2% ....

Do it grow something, capture pure CO2 and put it 2,000 meters into the ground and its gone for good, or a very long time if done well. there are better things than trees to capture CO2, best of all needs a lot of energy and unless cold fusion is invented, we will need a lot of different solutions from reducing emissions by man eventually to NET 25% then ZERO then going the other side and capturing for a long time the 2 trill tons we have sent by now then the 2 trillion of so frozen in the arctic and then add however much at 35-40 billion tons we emit from now on.
Daunting, but possible. As to the ocean and warming aspects, Coral is gone, forget even trying, what can hopefully be limited is acidification beyond a level too far beyond the 7.8 level which I suspect is 2060 or so v estimates of 2120. Just thought I would correct that, apparent error. Plant a tree is a good thing, but the cycle of life and CO2 life is what it is.

Take care Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 28 2019, 02:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy


I deal with realities, planting a hectare of trees removes 4 tons per year of CO2. Planting 1 sq km or 100 hectares 400 tons, with all available land pretty much under crop or pasture, if, and IF ... we planted 5 MILLION sq km of land ... deserts ... it would remove for about 50 years, a mere 200 million tons of CO2.

Yes a good thing, but I suspect something the guy you quoted is aware of the math. When we put 35 billion tons into the air each year, removing 200 million tons is, well .... good but ... NOT a solution. I am not hysterical as this thread suggests, just a realist. I do know there are better ways of removing CO2 and whilst trees, planting 5 million SQ km year one then YEAR 2 .... by year 20 all land ... ALL even the top of mount Everest would be covered at the end of the carbon cycle for trees they burn ... or rot and new ones grow up, its not captured forever. Even then 200 mill v 35 billion rising to 40 billion is ... well under 2% by 2075, is NOT a solution some seem to think r believe it is.


There is hope, a small window, depends more on Arctic Methane and its rate of release again NOT covered in any predictive model used by governments yet, sadly a reality.



As I said I try and deal with realities and eventually, whether via massive disaster which probability rises above 50% post 2050 to 85% if not 90% by 2100 of a global crop fail ... humanity, as we know it, changes, or does not. Davos forum did not deal with either tax theft, inequality or climate change and the Oligarchy meeting prior to it was, as per normal more concerned with ... their own issues. Me I am just the guy who, well .... writes stuff, checks projections and at times annoys the hell out of them via asking stupid but obvious questions.


I will not be around either way. I suspect I will see in coming years, a rising CH4 Methane count and exponentially rising one at that. First it heats at 26 times CO2 then via chemistry breaks down to CO2 and H2O but the breakdown rate already has gone 40% from a mere 20 years ago.


Sorry to be a realist, but when the things in the atmosphere that break down one of the worst greenhouse gasses become less and less, I do wonder is even my just assuming the rate of breakdown stays the same and the release is kept to say 100 years v what seems likely 20-30 ... in 100 years, humanity as we know it, around for 100,00 years or modern times say 2000 BC till now, an eye-blink geologically is in for an interesting 200 years. One which, WILL DEFINE us and likely, without early action, redefine the ability of this planet with an ocean so acidic that most life there stops by 2200 or so, heated to 36 degrees at the equator which the deniers seem to have forgotten the last time 65 million years ago occurred, its a race, for who or what survives post 2300.


Oh happy U tube on Permafrost with most of the guys I follow and have met, all ignored .... out of current models speaking on the topic. the best guy, from Oxford is NOT in there, he is more Melting Ice v Permafrost


I do what I can ... and thats, a fair bit.

For the first link ... the deniers claim ice is NOT melting and its NASA ... over 20 years of artic ice covering this Methane Bomb

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MicU8h4-kNw&index=56&list=WL


the second one ...

well its all methane so to speak !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBSjLD01rXo&index=39&list=WL


why or HOW people deny this issue is not beyond me. Its all about self interest and money. Times are a changing. OLDEST PERMAFROST is actually over a million years old. I am not sure they mention the total number ... but its about 50 years of current emissions BUT ... at 26 times the impact due to it being CH4 first then ... CO2 ... Methane hits a lot harder in temperature change ... a well known and simple chemical reaction. So does 1,300 years or doubling of current CO2 impact anything happening in the space of 50 years ?

Yep inevitable as such, cant be stopped even if we tried right NOW ... we can Limit however the diabolical impacts, if we try. IF .... if NOT ... when DEEP permafrost is warming 1.6 degrees kelvin .... DEEP as in 200 meters deep ... stopping this, is not possible. Its changed already. What we do from here, as a species I will watch and try to change.


Enough sharing from me for a while.
cheers Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 23 2019, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

OOOHHH ...

The sole financial underwriter of the Howard G. Buffett Foundation is Warren Buffett, who donates roughly $150 million to $180 million to his son’s charity annually, according to tax records.

Holy Laxative,
I thought I had seen it all. Yes MR Nice guy ... pays no tax, bugger the welfare of the 99% others and he has his own private Army.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 23 2019, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Ho Hum,

USA actually stopped at the 50% retracement and for now ... going down.

Lost totally in the noise, two things and big things for Australia.
China related, and USA declared yesterday its going ahead with Huawei case in Canada. This is ugly.

Even uglier, the Chinese wanted to come early to next weeks meeting. USA said no thanks. In fact a series of comments by the Chinese yesterday got lost in all the idiotic noise. They were very blunt and very clear about China and its IT rights. They were basically laying down the law in their view and NO WIGGLE ROOM. NONE ....

So whilst this trade deal may be sealed, its unlikely to have any substance at all. If I were a betting man, I dont even think one will be made and China will just be forced to go, get stuffed.

I note, idiot media reports about China GDP at 21 year lows, well 21 years ago, their economy was 20% of the current size, 10 years ago .... 50% the current size. Same argument and view i have had for a long time on this, whilst this trade war is NOT a good thing, China if they had the bloody correct exchange rate is larger than the USA. Its growing of course SLOWER as the overall economy matures.


One a positive, the other, well, the stance is not good for the USA side. I note also that France sent a fine to one of the tech giants for sharing info and its about to become a blizzard via the new EU rules. Add to that, sometime soon a transaction tax for the tax evaders and likely they adopt the new Drongo tax when announced, the clock one might say is ticking.

IBM announced a set of results, the likes of which, well I have 35 years of looking at these things and I giggled when I saw them. The old recurring and non recurring expenses. So we have 10 different rules for how the tech girls in the USA report stuff and trying to sift out the bottom line is becoming tedious to put it mildly.

Our market, well, it seems supported despite the USA cold overnight. Rest of the noise, well twitter reading give me a great laxative dose and try not to do it. USA remains shut down, and the hot air and bluff and bravado coming out is, well amazing.
New Democrat house lady, 29 ... Latino I think, proposed tax of 70% on earnings above 10 million in the USA. Well, it became a 70% for everyone immediately on FOX news ... and gee ... I needed more toilet paper. She is being called a socialist for actually trying to get upper incomes to PAY TAX .... Gates paid 12% v someone on 100k is unable to avoid paying 35% .... and Buffett ... 15% and he doesn't declare much income a mere 50 million at most average the last 20 years,

Please join me in congratulating Buffet with 100 billion or so, given 25 to his family, his sons ranch on the Mexico border runs .... well ... safaris, But Via his tax returns v wealth Buffett is 2,000 YEARS old this year. Yep at 50 million declared v 100 billion ... or 150 if I count some he has given away .... he could be 3,000 years old. Some I might add his hapless son aged 64 has built a ranch on the Mexican border, paid the police off and in a recent article was pointing a high powered rifle at those terrorist !!


I know, you think I am making it up !!

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/howard...county-11103225

Over the past several years, 64-year-old Howard Buffett �" using wealth supplied by his father ­�" has been waging his own border war in Cochise County


Tee hee ... nothing like your unpaid tax dollars at work. OOPOH Trump declared yesterday that Latinos vote now for him at 50% .... his highest approval rating. Maybe they are the ones the hapless racist worthless son of Buffet has in his sights ?


Have fun
Cheers
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi,

last post this thread for a while ....
The convincing argument of the main denier ... is a really good one ... he however is funded by the Koch Brothers and their Cato institute is so far of right its ... insulting.


His argument and it seems logical, seems convincing as do his qualifications, which. well my 2 pages of mish mash ...are irrelevant. Listen ... and make your own mind up ... OPEN YOUR MIND and dismiss clinically and impartially the crap or obvious.

His main argument is that, pre 1950, there was NOT enough greenhouse CO2 to cause the change. I agree. I totally agree. There are 10 or so ... well known reasons why ... we warm. Sun is number one ... number 2 is CO2 .... three is particles in the air .... four is OTHER greenhouse gases ... on and on it goes.


Something happened in say 1800 and we started burning fossil fuels ... but what this person deliberately misses is the PRISTINE nature of the atmosphere. For a million years, the earth cleaned itself .... not much volcanic activity ... every 100,000 years an ice age as the orbit of the earth around the sun HAD ITS WOBBLE ... a thing he ignores, either out of lack of knowledge or likely his employer.

This aside, in 1800 ... good Ozone ..., NO smog ... 240-260 million PPM CO2 ... same for other greenhouse gasses and the accuracy of the measurements via ICE core bubbles is beyond gold standard back to say 900,000 years ago !!

CO2 impacts at a level of 1 ....
Methane ... 26 times that with a thermal bomb ... until it breaks down into CO2 and H2O ... so what happens when you DIG UP COAL ? What is Coal seam gas made of ? Methane ...

https://www.methanelevels.org/



Methane went NUTs ... 727 ppb in 1800 to 1116 ppb in 1950 or 389ppb at 26 times the impact of CO2 ... so ... well ... it must be added to the totals and its THERMAL boom ... is well known. All into a pristine atmosphere ... this added with the even deadlier Nitrous oxide via an impact 5 times even MORE than Methane and 125 or so times CO2 ... whilst in .... PPB v PPM or 1,000 to one ... well as agriculture advanced and well ... fertilizer occurred even by 1950 this had risen 10% or 25 PPB taking and stripping the ozone layer ....
https://www.n2olevels.org/

then what happened ? OH CFC impact at well 23,000 times CO2 ,,,, even by 1950 .... **** the ozone layer one hand protecting us ... being stripped away ....

Of course it had an impact ...


Countervailing this ... NUMBER TWO impact on the global warming side is ... CRAP IN AIR ... particulates and by reflecting and blocking the sun ... by 1900 ... NOT much ... by 1950 ... A LOT ... and more so today ... thankfully shielding us. Yep smog is good ... not really but ... some solutions for the future will NEED to address this and more clouds and water vapor slowing a heating effect IS something deniers ignore.

Dig up coal .... METHANE explodes into the air as its released ... DERR ... or I would say that to the main denier who whilst sounds intelligent .. his denial, of what is pristine clinical data is an oversight. Lots of systems as you can see interacting .... smog and sun going a bit slower post 1970 .... limiting rise ... for now.

Enough. believe what you will.
Kiss your kids as their life, post 2050 will not resemble ours. Post 2100, well, with 50% plus of oxygen coming from the ocean and funny thing is ... It hates acid .... 20% of Protein and that's for 7 billion not 10 billion .... its going to be interesting as time goes on.

I can only, with regret, announce Humanity is technically extinct at this point. We however have a very narrow window, less than 20 years, even if one of my worst case things happens sooner rather than latter, its going to occur either way. And that I might add is without any other massive bad event we have seen in the past that alters CO2 quickly. Say super volcanoes and so on. We have enough to worry about even now.

Happy to join Stephen in this one along with 50,000 other scientists ... me I am just the guy they get to build AI and prediction models ... or more often NOT ... I build them anyhow and correct theirs or crap they put into them.

What is of NOTE is the TIPPING point .... where we can do something .... and likely ... Cannot. Or the pain of doing something exceeds capacity to do it. NOW ... if I had my way, painless economically and we the 95% or 99% would not notice it as our governments struggled and did the right thing for everyone. As we go forward and post 20 years ... no change ... the painless ... even possible ... passes.


Cheers

Mark M
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

PS ....
Unless we go to actually near zero human CO2 by 2050, things are virtually impossible to alter in the future.

Stephen, who had a disease that afflicted someone I admired and loved and she was the bravest person I know, battling for 11 years to watch her son grow up as she battled ALS, Motor Neuron and Lou Gerhigs s Stephen had, I would prefer her son to live in a world without what is an avoidable end date.

Stephen, one of the most brilliant minds of our generation left us in 2018, he however had a view on this topic and whilst I DID NOT and DO NOT agree with his conclusions in total, his view was that in 400 years the planet would be an acid sea and 250 degrees C. Stephen is of course, Stephen Hawkin.


At the bottom of all this are mere chemical reactions, LAWS .... Scientific ones about energy in and out, or HOW certain compounds react, and then are broken down. If you don't like science, then Stop reading .


As to some of the more idiotic predictions of the past, and even now, sea rise and some from the 1970;s were, well ... stupid and the only way the sea will rise a lot is if the BIGGEST chunk of ice melts and that's Antarctica. Unlikely, I suspect in the next 100 years, the stuff on the actual land, but the fringes, yep .... sure ... but they are 15% of the total. Land actually rises or falls, so a rise in water v impact, without taking into account if the land itself is rising or falling makes even this seemingly simple thing extremely complex. Heating of water and its expansion verses, more evaporated due to higher temps, v A vortex effect as the earth spins, FEW take this into account with more water in the initial stages.

On and on and on these things go. But, in the end CO2 burnt for fuel, eventually breaks down. Since most don't know where the hell most oxygen comes from, or most heat ends up .... ITS THE BLOODY OCEAN ... I will be watching with interest a few things as time goes on. One is I suspect, impossible to avoid and will release 50 odd years of greenhouse gasses and I hope to hell its NOT quickly.


Others, seem to think planting a tree is the answer, or using brute force to capture CO2 ... which is in fact idiotic due to LAWS of science and the energy required is about the same ... if NOT equal to that expended in the first place, to turn it back into captured CO2.

As to tree.s and indifference and well .... lack of bothering ... until its too late ... is the end I suspect either way of humanity. A tree .... or a hectare at best absorbs 4 tons of Co2 per year ... one sq km or 100 hectares is .... 400 tons and at 33 BILLION HUMAN tons of CO2 .... ignoring the natural 23 BILLION tons the earth CAN handle and did so for millions of years .... absorb ... 23 itself ... its the 33 we NOW emit that is the issue.

With 50 million sq km of land used to feed us, even if we say planted 5 million of deserts in Australia out of the 7 million total .... needing to absorb say 33 billion tons .... its impossible EVEN to see 5 million sq km planted ... at 400 tons per sq km .... it would absorb ... gee ... all 5 million .... oh 2 billion pout of 33 billion JUST FOR ONE YEAR .... next year another 33 billion .... and so on ... and when the trees die ... the cycle STOPS .... or if they are burnt down .... its not captured other than short term..

There is of course a few solutions .... Green energy is actually LOWER COST than fossil fuels. LOWER >... NOT MORE ... some issues of course are the non sunlight or wind times .... but able I suspect to be overcome. Then again, the OLIGARCHY and their ownership of fossil stuff. prevails ... the need to immediately STOP this excess or reduce oit to 10% of what it is ... is of course possible without too much disruuption economically ... I even have a bloody solution. One the world is ready for ... but not the 1% or 0.1% ....

As to changes, they are set in stone ... some of them ... we cant go back ... its already out there. The solution is likely a few things and NOT what some of the PR Oligarchy types are pushing or pretending.


In the meantime, the Ocean is dead ... DEAD ... not much we can do about that. So too, whilst we hit 10 billion population, the likely-hood of a mass extinction event and starving of not million but billions post 2050 is well, over 50% even now, for me, its over 80% likely a crop fail on a massive scale hitting Africa and lower per capita GDP nations and their inability to pay MORE for food, will be an issue.

Oh bliss ... it is ... as to CO2 capture and NOT hitting 1.5 degree's by 2100, at this point in time I think its MORE not 2 degrees but 3 if not 4. Some serious things missing from the latest predictions out of 50,000 scientists and as a demographer and realist, two things hold the 2 -4 degree by 2100 difference and at 2 degrees ... by the way ... they all agree 80% likely mass crop fail .... the two more degrees have to do with what the bloody sun is going to do and I dont KNOW ... the last 30 years, despite warming 4% in 300 million years, the last 30 years have been a pause in its activity .... so does this change ? I d0ont know ....


A box of crackers for the other thing .... if you can name it ... and WHY its going to be a time bomb .... if it occurs.

As to reversing and trying to minimize some of the impacts .... tree;s whilst good, not the answer ... nor brute force massive energy requiring to remove and sequester CO2 ...

All however is an aside. ... seriously. One cannot compete with a billion dollar funded right wing think tank ... let alone 20 of them. All tax deductible .... best practice science is ... irrelevant. I own a coal mine or oil field ... Trumps ... hahah ... trumps all other issues. Economically things are a total joke and the COST of fixing this, is one that is ONE WHICH WILL NOT BE FELT .... well not by most. But for that to occur, a lot of things need to change and time is NOT something the world has.

enough .... I need to shoot my BB gun at the economic and global side .... in hopes it will change this topic.

Cheers
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Oh golly ....
Gee and ... disturbing some stuff on here.

For education .... a very good, all be it a FEW ... ERRORS still in this guys video. Debunks some of the myths ... and deniers crap

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBF6F4Bi6Sg...=0s&list=WL


Greenhouse exists.
Threat exists.

Deniers, public ones, three main ones, two funded by oligarchs, one a Nobel prize winner, but since I have quite often provided peer review on Winners scientific papers and at times, not kind. The Prize winner ... in physics who is a denier .... IS AN IDIOT. Paid for mind you. His knowledge is narrow AND whilst it sounds convincing, there are in fact around 10 things that change CO2 and its absorption. SOME happen like clockwork ... others ... not as such. But again easily verified via fossil records.


More modern denier is paid for via Koch Brothers, Oligarchy leaders and massive polluters ... and again, he sounds convincing ... but ignores ... totally so many things.

like trying to predict ... or prove something, there is as these de-bunkers TRY .... easy ways to shred something if YOU ... either don't include it .... or ignore it.

NOT EVERYTHING .... can possibly be verified via old records. WHY say an ice age occurred during a 2000 PPM CO2 level period 200 million years ago IF ... IF ... you ignore and both the main deniers ignore and DONT KNOW via sheer ignorance the SUN is 4% warmer NOW v then .... all be it the last 30 years ... its activity is LOWER than any time ... the SUN itself has bloody cycles.

The fact that the earth in its orbit around the sun ... wobbles .... and does so at measured periods ... in the last 1 million years via ice cores we see ... every 100k or so years .... an ice age as the Wobble in the orbit as expected reduces out put ...

Oh and 260 million years ago ... something formed ... as continents crashed into each other ... erosion itself is a powerful CO2 cleansing agent, but ... something formed ... capturing vast amounts of CO2 ending these spikes in temperature. Unlikely ever to occur again anyhow. I speak of course about COAL AND OIL AND GAS deposits .... as continents crashed into each other, often vast regions of vegetation, co2 holding pens ... were buried and turned over time into coal and oil deposit, AGAIN ... easily verified via fossils and examination of them.

Bother the seemingly credible deniers paid for by the far right .... seem to know little ... then there is some Lord who ... well owned a short shop and is a stupid idiot ... and then lastly ... the weather guy ... polished he is as a presenter ... he however left the weather channel well over 30 years ago ... his
background ... not that it matters ... is BA in journalism ... which in today's world gets one the UN ambassadors job at the UN .... but is NOT anything I would listen to.

His view that recent warming did not and has not occurred, is, well, thinking local weather is climate and with 20 people measuring temperature change in a serious way and since 1979 .... via satellite, the FACT is ... we are warming.

It is the RATE ... that concerns me. The population growth concerns me.

I have concluded, the ocean is DEAD and unless action well beyond proposed slowing of CO2 ... is not done, virtually all life in the ocean will cease by say 2200. Prior to that, well, a lot of things will occur.

I will not be around for them, but would prefer humanity to last beyond say 2300, but this seems unlikely.

Such is life and the needs of the few.
We can however change, but with the political side such as it is, oligarchy running USA and via default western society and we are leaderless .... change and massive change needed by 2040.


Not interested ... is the view of most. Indifference, until, well its too late. I mean not to scare anyone and some pretty absurd predictions have been made on this topic over the years. I merely join 50,000 scientists, and as one of the better builders of AI and projection models for the future, and the model I have post 2050, is alarming and by then, the possibility of stopping it after another 30 years at 35 million tons in excess ... of CO2, the planet cant deal with, well ... it is what it is ...

Take care

Mark k
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 19 2019, 03:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Tee Hee ....
From before ....

Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

Magic rally .... must be Kim from Korea meeting .... or the third excuse in 11 days of up up up .... similar about the USA Fed slowing down raises ....well we are there ... NOTHING ... not a thing can shake this correction. Not even, well, a company that had 15 times its debt in cash, according to their accounts, being bankrupt, within 12 months out of China .... ASIA went down, USA ... went up ... EU and others reacting to well shocking news surrounding Trump and his actions, erased any loss ... to ... well ... any and all news being like it was not long ago ... any negative is a positive and any positive is a positive.
A number showing weakness in The USA .... buy ... as rates are not going to rise .... if its a strong number ... buy .... because its a positive ... hilarious and just play the ranges. Key levels right now. As to shutdown, if it was say Germany, it would be a smoking black hole as the UK found out via Brexit ... but ... well ... nope ... we will have a rally however it ends ... so whilst markets go up and down, the stopping point at 50% of the bounce unlikely to stop them. It should given some of the appalling revelations that make Nixon and his Watergate actions look trivial, the sad reality is, as Trump said, he could walk outside Trump Tower in NY and shoot a gun, killing some poor innocent and not have anything happen.

Strange position I find myself in, one foot or toe seeing the inside of things and the other, with efforts to stop these idiots. The G30 minus one is working towards actually making an impact on claims via one Oligarchy head he paid 25% tax, yet none seen in the EU, Or USA or Japan .... or China, so that's actually 90% of the world and its markets, and overall tax paid is 5%, since we all can now see the other nations tax filings. Times are changing and first step is to make it criminal, the people who arrange these schemes. It has of course always been that way, but investment banks and accounting firms are on notice and should be concerned. A point I raised here in Davros and was, well, told what an idiot I was because they OWNED them. I shut my mouth and took my rebuke as I should have. USA with 3.5 billion a year in political donations, both sides of the fence, then another amount doubling that, OFF the books but tax deductions have it well covered. So 7 billion a year, each year and every year, of course, for them, Democracy and the will of the people is an aside.

Not so for the G30 minus one ... Sure some of it goes on, but the scale of it, arrogance and impact is astounding.
The first step of the DRONGO tax is this criminalization of it ... the beauty of the Drongo tax and tax theft .. the secret os NOT so secret anymore and still the dismissive nature of these people v the needs of the society and many is an aside. After being told I am an idiot, for pointing out the first step, I am not about to do it again. Just push harder for DRONGO tax, a simple fair and elegant tax to be implemented which will, radically alter finances for 80% of the world.


On Markets ...


Oh well, never ever bet against stupidity .... or the plunge protection team. All rules are shelved with the second, the first ... well .... stupid is what it is.
Noise, and deafening ... sift it out and from Davos and the Oligarchy meeting going on prior to the World Economic Forum as per usual, they are as per usual pushing their own agendas. No tax for any member and well ...


TAKE CARE
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 15 2019, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi.

I am well aware of Arty's passing. His humility, sharing and tolerance is sadly missed. 2018, for me saw the passing of a few, for me that I admired and am humbled via their tolerance and in some cases, Arty, and another I shall not mention, I was treated as a peer and college as we searched for answers for many years via chat sites. We via the internet and my own contributions date back to the good old days 1997 or so ... we, via anonymous nics and sometimes no so secrets identities share, share and grow and swap ideas and methods. Then again, the internet, via a lively and at times abusive in the extreme, depending upon the site are in effect putting forward ideas or scientific papers as such and opening them for peer review and open discussion.
All good overall.

I have had, many a lively discussion on various sites and at times been swayed, corrected and put straight with incorrect information or methods. Then again, its more often one gets a one liner, or threats, or abuse, when debunking some stock, or commodity or even theory. My humbling moment of the last decade was a revelation of who one poster on one site who for 15 years WAS .... and he, well, I am not worthy to lick his shoes. Arty, much the same, whilst one thinks charting or technical analysis is a tiny aspect of one side of investing. WRONG and its an integral part of financial calculations, FORECASTING and building models that can accurately predict future events require charting and seeing what has occurred in the past, especially when humans are involved.

One side, Fundamental analysis or valuation, or revaluation is nice and whilst, over time, it works, its the bedrock of why we invest, it does NOTHING to the human side of the equation. Underestimating stupidity is stupidity in itself. Trying to do so with a tool, knowing that, even though a stock or something is worth $1- all day every day, in a down-beaten market, its likely at best to be trading at 50 cents, in a panicked one 25 cents and well, one with a long list of things not going well as low as 10 cents.
But yep, Miss Arty, miss another mate, a few in fact from 2018. Such is life,

take care
Mark k
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

PS ...
I see from your posts about Cricket, Gold and well climate skeptic as well as not a fan of China, we have little in common.
Always, strange and amusing, to present something, logically and as best you can l ... and receive via core opinions, beliefs, and at times, dogma and fear, and abuse.

Such is life. Open your mind, I would say, but, well, its already made up.

Ahh Arty where are you ... Sadly missing.
Take care
Mark
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 04:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Hi,
sadly. my editor, is on holidays since 1998.
If English is your thing, and grammar, sentence structure, maybe ... your better suited on say a third class English teachers site.
That said. I will, try and ensure a clearer better structured response in the future. I am however excited to be off to Davos and the meetings prior to the World Economic Forum on the 22nd.
Davos, is, well ... I think well known. Janet Yellen and so too Donald.
Whilst I know not much, the ASX, again, is back to its old under-performance v the USA with one UP .... and ASX down.
At times, I get excited and to be honest frustrated and that, at times, makes an already not great writing style, when I don't take the time even harder to follow.
Apologies
Mark K

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Ho hum,

oh the noise .... the forest is gone and so too the tree's.The current stuff, well ... noise.

It was and is amusing to remember end of Dec 2018 USA had fallen by how much ? The whole year ... ??

OOOOHHH 4% or so .... we went down 8% or more .... and without the ignoring of Dec via the USA it would have been more.

USA via the magic of PPT and well now a muzzled USA fed ... to some extent .... up up and up and we follow but of course slower, for the above reason.
Beyond this, lower levels and recent lows .. well passed but down there and verses a low longer term interest rate outlook here, a good value to buy at 7% or more dividend. Cloud on the horizon and why I suspect, any rally, any meaningful one here is unlikely in 2019 is the Labor proposed new dividend rules and not being able to get a refund, merely just deduct it against tax owed is a really big thing given the size of the superannuation pool and its growing nature.

Other thing, slowly slowly the old tax office with 30 other nations working towards the inevitable end of this tax theft and inversion stuff. They tried, not imposing fines, and well ... the majority went and just changed the structure and went down another rabbit hole. Monday and the ATO meeting was, well illuminating where we are going within 18 months and the EU and a few others likely in three years.

The gist of it is, NO >>>>> NO MORE .... eat poo .... and the arrangers, those being investment banks and accounting firms are to be treated just like someone stealing welfare or fraud via say claiming NDIS or govt money when not providing the service. It is no different and despite the lobbyist for Goldman's our new USA ambassador and thinking he will prevail, so so sorry ....

And this is the other half of the proposed DRONGO tax, which is under wraps, for now. Its neat, its clean and making it an enforcing theft as a criminal offense, no amount of political donations into EU nations or Australia will work. For now, again just noise.

Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

I don't expect them NOT to try it, the Chinese hot air and NO DETAILS or likely change in reality will I suspect be the spur or maybe the ... ending of the shutdown ... either way, a word of caution is that USA ignoring even well ... worrying things. Fed chief says he is actually looking at the govt debt side and is worried ? Holy hell ... its not since pre Greenspan and Volker any USA fed chief looked over the Monetary side and went ... are you joking. Also, the tax implications of actually having to pay ... not claim to have paid, as a few of the tech people did, straight faced to our tax office CLAIMED they paid 25% tax on profits globally .... when NOW we are handed USA tax returns along with EU and so on.

They didn't pay it here ... NOR the USA ... easily seen via tax receipts ... let alone now their tax returns, they paid it into a fantasy tax haven .... and worse, lent the money to the USA parent at double the going rate and claimed 21% tax write-off, into ZERO tax haven tax rate and then ... with a straight face ..lied not only to the Australian tax office, the EU guys were ... even more upset.

Must run, off to Davros and the World economic forum .... and hoping to catch a dance with Janet Yellen again .... along with the Oligarchy heads and their annual meeting. Since Donald will not be there the dance with Mikaliea is out .... sadly ...

Cheers

Mark K ...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 8 2019, 02:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Ahh ..


our new president .... whoops ambassador ... Goldman Sachs lawyer and so too ... the non tax paying evaders ..


Out of head offices mouth ...

Endless Wars, especially those which are fought out of judgement mistakes that were made many years ago, & those where we are getting little financial or military help from the rich countries that so greatly benefit from what we are doing, will eventually come to a glorious end!

VIa twitter ... President Trump ... since on 9/11 in total 28 nations went to war, Australia as well ... our Nation has been on over 60 ... peacekeeping missions, declaring that Mexico is, well ... somehow doing anything other than what its done for 100 years, being tolerant ... is one thing.


The other is, well, as most Australians and our besties NZ ... went to war in 1914 ... and with the UK paid a horrid price .... I am respectful and thankful ... the USA eventually became involved. I say with respect to their losses and thankful the carnage which was WW1 ended and so too WW2 ... USA became involved post Dec 1941, prior to that, it was involved but only via FDR and his lend lease and taking direct and deliberate actions ... against the overall will of the USA people and again, any victory Australia had if one can call it that, PNG with out next best friends PNG and stopping the Japanese for the first time or in that battle in Africa where the Germans were stopped for the first time .... again without USA and NOT being anti American, I say this with utmost respect to the USA and their losses, that was then and THIS ... crap out of him, should alone have the SOVEREIGN NATION and one that right now is NOT run by a president, or EX lawyer for ZGoldman Sachs or Oil companies via remote, for this alone .... bei g actually a Constitutional Monarchy and head of state IS THE QUEEN .... when this new guy presents his credentials to the governor General, its time ...


TO HANG UP .... remember Malcolm Turnbull ... hung up on by this clown ... then finally meeting him, spent 4 hours waiting ... and whilst Malcolm did not mention the phone call and turned the other cheek, it was sadly revealed. The DEAL in question, well its been welshed upon and of course Malcolm is no more.


Interfering in overseas elections if one just doesn't even stretch their memory is something at the moment the debate is whether out of 206 nations the USA has directly influenced up to the point of invading and sponsoring invasion ,... to even worse in wait for it ... 85 out of 206 nations !! The debate is still out there, not about Malcolm, but how much Whitlam and his declaration of NOT liking Vietnam was one thing but the day prior to the GG sacking him, he was about to reveal we had USA bases on our soil ... Pine Gap ... is still unclear what the USA did because the last paragraph of the briefing is classified for 100 years under national security.

All this is an aside, we are the new Mexico and South America and even they .... THEY have stood up to it. In 1945, they held a conference in Mexico and prior to that, USA declared all of South America was well ,,, theirs ... in 1945 same stuff ... wind forward and in the last meeting, the whole of South America could NOT even agree on a press release as they rejected all and any of the proposals via USA.


One has to ask, and few do, where and WHY ... all these refugees are coming from ? Why are they fleeing their nations ? Is there any relationship between ... the two ? Oh before you think and more than most will, think I am nuts, most obvious and direct actions in recent times ? Well Cuba and bay of pigs and its ... well been removed from being talked about. How about Panama and its invasion in 1990 or 1991 and the leader, Noriega amusingly was the president, Old George ... when head of the CIA his highest paid foreign leader.


But, yep .... send the tax guy to take back the 15 billion the ATO just collected from non paying Companies and STOP pestering the others for tax, ITS CALLED FREE TRADE .... stupid ... that was the message handed to the PM by the new President/ Ambassador of Australia.

An aside, for now to markets as this Regressive tax the USA has, on one hand ... and NOT being anti rich, just that they pay say 30% tax on income like the person on 100k .... instead, as life expectancy in the USA for the lower 80% hits 70 ... Mexico with the second best South American healthcare system and costing 25% of the USA, is being, well ... abused ... for no real point other than racial, Cuba, which we must NOT speak about ... has a life expectancy of 2.5 years more than the official USA number and since I don't accept Hispanics in America, 10% of whom have NO healthcare, thats the illegals and Legal another 10% have NO healthcare .... and 40% of the rest have emergency or bronze Obamacare ... supposedly they live LONGER than anywhere in the world ... ANYWHERE .... in fact 5 years LONGER than the average American and even 3 years longer than Cubans who get to see their doctors at DOUBLE the rate of the USA.


Oh please ? Mr Governor General, both past and new one served our nation. We don't often appreciate the roles of them, or police or people doing bad things to protect us, or things that make us what we are. My personal view and opinion with 5 Great Uncles lows WW1 and my GG mums side gassed in the Somme and well aware, aged 18, a group of friends in 1982 on a helicopter in a place called the Falklands .... Well aware ... and deeply appreciative of the debt we OWE not just our own, but so too, the USA and whilst its sad, we, humans at times come to violence and wish it wasn't so. This comment and a few others via this turnip ... basically and an opinion ... and besides the point, is not respecting our sacrifice, or our besties PNG and NZ or the UK ... who paid even a bigger percentage.


Second side, is economic and sending an ambassador who already is declaring he is on the lookout for China and so on, ... IS NOT APPRECIATED. I suspect, and have faith we as a nation can and HAVE actually said NO ... to China all on our own. What worries me more, is ... the tax and drip down side coupled with Trade issues.




Free trade is FINE but with RULES. If Foreign based companies wish to do business here. we welcome them as LONG as they behave and pay taxes. When we have one company turning over 6 billion, head office declaring a 30% margin on sales and they charge 110% even above GST ... here, suggesting the profit, NET profit is less than 2% ... not 35-40% .... is insulting. Tax office did a stellar job in collecting SOME of this, NOW they have run down another rabbit hole via a new tax inversion ... and surprise surprise surprise ... we now have their lawyer, dressed as ambassador but in reality likely our NEW UN-elected president coming ?




NOT SURE ... what it will take for someone to grow a backbone. Either way, an aside in the greater scheme of things, we didn't need that 15 billion we collected or the ATO did. It only pays for 10 hospitals serving 1 million people and fully funds them for a year. Or could.

Instead, we are balancing our budget in 2020 and that worked out last time in the Asian financial crisis when we almost had a cow going below 49 cents and were junked with Indonesia and every other nation.


Sorry, can we please .... please when the Governor General is presented the credential, as representative of the Queen, he HAS the power to reject them. So too, just don't let him in !!

Of course I live in a world where, well, these things are clearer prior to them occurring. Eventually EU will and given this comment about paying, paying the price, is about them as well ... why do we bother ? Why not invite UK back in to the newly vacated USA bases and tell them to GO HOME.




Its NOT too much to ask, if someone sells something here, makes a profit to pay, tax.




Please send Cindy instead !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 6 2019, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/79328...-confirmed.html

At his Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing in Washington last month the 70-year-old Culvahouse was hawkish on China, saying he will keep a close eye on attempts by China to undermine the US-Australian relationship.

"Just let me say I view the strategic and security relationship between the US and Australia to be strategically critical and I will, if confirmed, make an assessment of efforts by third countries, third parties, to undermine that relationship," Culvahouse told the hearing.

"If there are such efforts, including China, I will not refrain from forthrightly reporting up the chain to the (State) Department and to speak publicly if and as required."

Culvahouse has provided legal work for multi-national corporations including Exxon, Ford, Goldman Sachs and AT&T and he said that experience made him aware of China's aggressive tactics.

"China is Australia's largest trading partner and that gives it out-sized influence and out-sized opportunities to a nation that is already, let us say, aggressive and I know that from my personal experience representing US companies in the Asia-Pacific," Culvahouse told the hearing.

Trump has struggled to fill what was once considered a plum diplomatic posting.

His first pick for Canberra, former Pacific Command commander Harry Harris, was switched to the ambassador role in South Korea early last year.

Two retiring Republican senators, Orrin Hatch and Bob Corker, were both reportedly offered the Australian job, but declined.

Culvahouse is a Republican Party legal stalwart who has worked for Trump and other presidents, including Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan.

In 2008, he was heavily involved in the selection of then-little known Alaska governor Sarah Palin as John McCain's vice-presidential nominee.


................................

can we send him back ? and get Cindy ? OR even Admiral Yamato ? Seriously, an ambassador who, well is already reading the riot act ?

Fun fun fun ..
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 5 2019, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy

From above ...

I will just play MR VOLATILITY and the plunge protection MAGIC rallies ... OH golly I love them ....

Ohh gee ... surprise surprise surprise .... the non farm payrolls showed ... well ... a well cooked number.

Not unexpected and par for the course just like early 2008.

In short, the week, and immediate outlook.

Shutdown, USA still going, with, well my 7,000 plus fibs going the talks went well, and the people there going it was a joke. Mr 7,000 then going he will wait a year and bugger the 800,000-. Again, an aside as he may declare a national emergency to keep the ex Mexican president out.

Similar, but market loved it, China talks, low level ones next week. Expect more positive, but, well. China has said its not moving on several issues. In the end, it is a smokescreen.

Underlying this, at 21% tax, USA earnings are, well what they are and support the Market.

Fed jawboning and making soothing noises, again a positive, but, well they did say they will NOT be bullied and on one hand the market is now assuming NO raises for 2019, where, Powell clearly indicated whilst making soothing noises, the OPPOSITE of the market taking out all rises in 2019,

Opinion, yep but one as a Fed follower for 35 plus years, again irrelevant, short term.

USA still behind its old highs and yep. a lot higher than our own over time, but then again cutting tax to 21% v 35% and ignoring the impact on the deficit and debt tends to do that.

Suspect, again opinion, as we basically ignored the Dec selloff, yes we hit lows .... but came off them massively, we merely follow slowly a rise if that's the USA way and yet again lag behind. Basically the 3% plus rise USA Friday, we likely get 1-1.5% and so on if that's where they take it.

Underlying this, one side positive and supporting USA and our own more so, stocks with great value and dividends verse very low rates here for some time, conversely, some bigger issues as always and top news of the week was Apple and backlash against tariff crap and if ... its merely a one off or as I suspect a longer term thing. A mistake ... raising prices whilst destroying your customer base.

Oh of course the Democrats taking control of the House, senate, via its structure of 2 senators per state no matter if your population is 50 million or 5 .... unlikely ... to move EVER to a white card 60/40 so the President veto is besides the point. Republicans control the senate and 53/47 ,,, v House Democrats now in charge.

Expect more HOT AIR on Muller and impeachment ... seriously just ... in the end a noise. President even if guilty and well it appears so ... his servant go to jail but he can give himself a pardon and even if NOT, his next president just like Nixon ... who was given one, clearly guilty on Watergate, walked. WHAT IS NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN .... is if 2020 is lost ... the statute of limitations will still be open to prosecution as a person NOT the president ... but Mr Trump. Expect some unusual behavior if the polls show him behind in 12 months. AND as if things are not unusual now !! NO chance of impeachment and it being done whilst in office or very very low chance.

playing blind mans bluff, for any other nation, closing the govt even partially, WOULD and SHOULD have credit rating agencies jumping up and down, IMMEDIATE CREDIT watch and downgrades, especially a nation that promised SOME more tax being collected via amnesty and lower rate. Unfortunately, giving greedy tax cheats, and the tax in question the CEO's were bringing back was stuff stolen from overseas and THIS trade war is again, classic abuse tactic of accusing unfair practices whilst I rape and steal, the TAX meant to be slowing at 15% discounted rate as 3-4 trillion overseas, tax came back ... well that was NOT good enough for them so ... shhh ... its a secret NO tax coming in ... USA budget in tatters ... Credit rating agencies ignoring tax collected at 30% of GDP v 40% for the rest of the world and debt at 100% of GDP and well ... deficit at 5% plus ... the new tax dodge from the tax evading creeps is to park all the stolen tax not paid to EU and japan and every nation over the last 15 years since the last amnesty ... park it in a tax haven ... then announce as though its come back into the USA massive buybacks which on the main are now already over .... buybacks as the capital gains tax at 15% v 35% plus personal rates are too high ... so Apple buys 9 billion of stock 33% higher ... let alone old GE and its 20 billion 400% higher ... great for P.E and earnings ,,, but this latest tax idea out of the investment banks is to PARK the actual stolen tax .... in a haven, with NO TAX, then LEND the money from the tax haven and earnings are TAX free ,.,,, whilst charging the COST ... yes a legitimate COST ... in interest expense whilst earning a tax deduction at 15% and paying NO tax the other side ... awaiting the NEXT tax cut Mr Dump has planed and the next amnesty ... at 5% v 15% v what used to be 35% tax.

I wonder how they will like the new DRONGO tax coming out soon ? All with shiny penalties and actual jail terms. But that's late Jan 2019.

Again, an aside, I really don't expect the credit rating agencies to act, NOT EVEN MURMUR ... even with the govt shut down, even with well a missing 250 billion corporate tax collected, let alone idiotic estimates on increases in collections .... all this is an aside, until, well it isn't.


But I can. in one press conference after outright telling a lie about the meeting with House and saying it was very productive and going very well, in seconds go to. ... oh it may be a year shutdown .... to ... well I can call a national emergency because the Mexicans are NOT paying for the wall ? God I love the circus it all is.

Strangely ... jawboning and plunge protection team .... and so on.

Meanwhile ... things festering and actually changing out there. Santa gave a few backbones to people r so it seems and if the absurdity of, what is going on, NOT ... the underlying stuff ... the stupidity of having to watch a govt dismantle every protection for the consumer via presidential decree and having ex lobbyists who championed destruction of various things NOW in charge of agencies meant to protect them is ... well, what it is.

Happy 2019, but for now, up up and away ... making Mr Paulson ex CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2008 look not like a pig, then again Cohn another ex ceo and his budget of 2018 ... after paying himself 300 million departing Goldman sachs ... to become the 5th successive ex Goldman bunny or zombie running the budget and social security and Medicare ... cannot I suspect be t0opped ... oH no its Munchkin ,,, same thing ex Golmans .. Cohn was merely the advisor to the president ... same thing ...

Ahh ,, we live in hope ... and stupidity awaiting a comment out of the IMF or even Fed on the Fiscal side. The USA fed, whilst the new guy ... has some backbone ... IGNORES and in this the only real central bank in the world that ignores the Fiscal side. HENCE ... they have a massive sloppy big stimulus with over 1 trillion YEP 1 trillion deficit in 2019 .... and well ... rates tightened and almost ... at CPI. So one hand push and the other pull ...

Leaving all of it ... yawn ... pick the eyes out of the volatility ... ignore the noise and hoopla. Its a distraction and to need to be the headline every single day is tiring as a child throwing a tantrum. I just read wearing yellow makes you look bugger, not orange, maybe some yellow gloves to make his hands look good may distract him ? Maybe a Chinese finger puzzle is the go, he is to arrogant to ask for help and it would be amusing to see him with two fingers on opposing hands stuck together for the next 2 years.

Take care
Mark Kahuna
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 4 2019, 06:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Howdy,
well basing a view upon non bias clinical approach and scientific scrupulous based approach I always find helpful.
Hard to do, hard to ... convince anyone of anything ... have a read of some of the oil threads pre GFC and Uranium ... one can present a case, clinically and methodically that, well turns out 100% or close to it accurate, but at the time seems like many if not most of the noise out there.
Of course, fundamentals, Supply and demand vs stupidity or greed, can and will never measure up. Buying say something worth $1- every day in a bear market trading at 50 cents and the $1- value is actually growing at 15% so doubling in 5 years can see the share sit and sit and sit and sit for years of course pre 2000, and then like a new dawn, they go, well they just paid a dividend that was 80% of their price and can pay it every year for the next decade ....
Lots of gems in the old days, now, not so many.

Predictions for 2019 and beyond.
Violent markets punctuated by massive illogical rallies just like in 2008 with the plunge protection team .... gee we have already seen 4% in a few hours ... 5% once ... and splat ... again.
Second, well the republican movement is ... gone for a very long time in Australia.

Third is easy, Low rates for some time, years of it.
All easy ones ...
More difficult ones ? Well ...


another thread .... another time ...




have fun

Cheers Mark K

  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 4 2019, 04:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Ah yes,

Lots of things going on .... the LIST of things actually gets bigger ... and smaller.
One big thing has occurred, not the out-performance of USA v rest of world, the cycle .... and tide is changing whatever may be in the future.
Sure, seemingly not much has changed of late, but China is NOT really going to change, changes to date promises and tax cuts, supposed boosts to tax via repatriation of taxes in the USA did not occur .... and in the process, we, we Mexicans, and how gracious was that ex president in saying despite the LOVE hate its had for over 100 years and say Hoover in 1930 blaming them for the great depression and sending them back ... to FDR begging them to come back and fill jobs vacated ... by servicemen to .... when someone was 8 introduced Operation wetback and sent them all back in 1954 ... US president Eisenhower, not many officially sent back but open lynch gangs managed to have millions flee USA. Young president in 2019 was 8 and still in nappies being breastfed ... so even at 70 he still doesn't understand it was ... wrong.

Current policy of the wall ... much the same ...

a few things I suspected and did NOT share, well only with ones that I give thoughts to for work or ask for it .... Tesla sales falling 70% was denied ... admitting they had fallen a lot ... but NOT how much cut prices to UNDER COST to try and win back those Chinese Mexicans. Their mood inside china and yep I read their press, is NOT happy.
I went ok ... then China clearly indicated, not once ... not twice but three times on some issues ... GET STUFFED USA on this trade crap. Samsung and APPLE spent 10 years in courts .. cross suing each other ... Apple won a bit, but hardly worth it. Instead, unilaterally all trade is hit and .... I spit in your food ...
really ....
Oh and then we come to apple. Oh so diplomatic to a market of 20% plus they just .... had sales that ... were shocking. This was WITHOUT China who is NOT a nice state doing anything like making social points system if you buy any USA made product you earn minus 2,000 points and it basically removes your passport and then housing and so on ... the more you buy.
Its not just them, EU ... all under attack via threats via USA ... Canada ... we almost ended up with them.
But for now ... thankfully the plunge protection team is there ... again ... the annoying thing they wheeled in early 2008 when time and time again that PIG of a man Paulson called it all over, with the market down a mere 6% from all time highs .... it only fell and fell and fell some more.
Apple, who pays no tax ... but lots of political donations, so too the rest of the gang ... the world is a changing and facebook that clown did not bother turning up to the EU and 28 nations with a GDP and population BIGGER than the USA so they conducted the meeting with an empty chair ... EMPTY ....
except for a photocopy of his face stuck on it which they asked questions to !!!

China policy .... exporting costly labor intensive jobs was fine ... till it was not.
Things, well change and my first digital cheap phone was under $100- now 0i n0eed ... supposedly a $1,400 one .... I happened to buy one which had all the features of a good smart one for $200- with a massive battery ....

Pointing out something obvious, when it is clouded in noise, is .... well ... what I tend to do. Pointing out that Australia has 15 billion More funds and will hit a surplus ONLY because oh 10 or so ... mainly overseas companies got hit with ONE SINGLE years tax bill ... and now have run down another tax inversion hole ... EU and here likely to introduce Tax on turnover to combat this ... but the NEW solution is the top secret DRONGO TAX bill about to be unveiled ... and its about time. Stuff them.
Either way, its ok they have run up 2 trillion More debt in the USA ... in 12 months, More than the GDP of Brazil ... they got their wish with corporate tax going from 35% to 21% and supposedly the repatriation of 3 trillion in overseas unpaid tax was meant to NET around 10% or 300 billion in USa taxes ... sadly giving a cheat a green card, never works.
But for now, debt NOT an issue especially when beyond the world bank, fed now slightly independent with the cult removed, the credit rating agencies and treasury and commerce and a long list of others till in full control of OLIGARCHY and rightly so ... they know whats best. For them.
TIDE is out, on USA based goods ... sorry but ... people in even Canada are not amused let alone EU nations.
TIDE is going out rapidly on tax theft and ... DRONGO tax is about to be unveiled .... along with the expected revenue tax on turnover coupled with well ... some interesting things that will make CEO's of these places even blink without their eyelids as the Google and Amazon ones never had them.
I have been I suppose watching and seeking ... and wondering for 20 years, even 30 ... EU shows fiscal restraint, balances budgets raises tax a few percent to 40% of GDP to pay for healthcare costing around 7% of GDP in their nation ... USA well .. Clinton had tax up near 37% of GDP and along comes George W with two massive cuts to tax, spending like NO tomorrow and healthcare costs explode .... or course NOT in the CPI and USA collects 30% of GDP in tax v EU at 40% Oz at 38% if one includes the correct things like super and gst and workers comp and so on ....
So how does a nation pay for healthcare for its people at 21% of GDP only collecting 30% overall at all levels of government when say 28 EU nations collect 40% of GDP and healthcare costs 7% of GDP ?
It doesn't pay for healthcare.
It doesn't pay for pensions promised and paid since 1933 ... called social security ....
what happens to you without decent healthcare ? ... oh go ask Afghanistan or Sudan ... not good examples with under 50 life expectancy ... but say other nations with life expectancy of 60sih all have ... the same thing ...
Welcome to the lower 80% of America.

Sorry ... it is after all irrelevant in the extreme. Longer term, what USA wishes to conduct via indifferent OLIGARCHY an experiment that has ended the same way ... in 100 nations ... over 1000 times since 2000 BC is ... well ... their right. As is it my own, to voice dismay at being forced to watch it. Of course, even this is ... an aside, one goes looking for one thing and finds another. But we shall get there. baby steps from now on.
LOVE and a big hug to you .... I love you and ... just don't read my stuff if it annoys you, or upsets you. Buried in there, some gems, which you MAY or may not decide are worth taking action on. When a company basically tells me its sales for 20% of its overall sales are DOWN and DOWN a lot, whether its 20% or 70% ... when there are similar issues being felt in markets under attack, external attack from outside ... via belligerent abuse ... I believe and have faith boundaries such as the NEW DRONGO tax about to be unveiled globally ... will knock these little dictators socks off. As to buying food when someone has literally spat in it .... or on you ...
Only time will tell how much brand damage has been done ... in the case of APPLE its lights off either way, yes I spat in your food, or some dummy did ... viaa their action ... and I am going to charge you 110% MORe for the new phone ...

good luck.
Cheers ... now go hug someone and tell them you love them.

Mark M
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 08:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838

Oh well ... times change and times are the same.

Same stuff new thread, the old one is locked, I have been ... busy.

Will periodically update some stuff.

Merry Christmas and happy 2019. My very very large brain is hurting .... OH and that's something I have issues with even repeating !! The world changes and spins, and things remain the same. THE amount of pure NOISE and BS is deafening and the older I get, I actually know and accept how LITTLE know or even thought I did. I knew it all aged 18 in 1982 and now, well 36 years latter accept with grace, how little I knew then and even now.

Over the years, with the help of some very patient and smart people, none of which rubbed off on me !! I have become, well GREY .... hahaha ... but more and more accepting of the world. I can and have over the years spoken of many many many .... sshiiit I am sounding like that D grade reality show guy, the B grade Movie actor known as Regan was in power and Greenspan was about to get his reward for the Greenspan commission that on one hand CORRECTLY predicted they needed to save a lot more in the USA and massively raised Social Security taxes, Only to have Regan give THE BIGGEST tax cut ever around 3% of GDP ... then again some dope claimed his tax cut of late was the biggest at 0.9% of GDP.

As some, who have followed, on various places, since 1998, 5,000 or so posts, on various things, NOT shares alone but the things THAT make things go UP and down, some sites on demographics and advanced modelling and even one of the worlds largest Mental health sites for people dealing with people with SERIOUS ILLNESS and those being sociopaths or Psychopaths or the more common flavors of it Borderline Personality Disorder and Narcissistic Personality Disorder and so on. It is relevant to markets, and economics and VERY much so in this day and age. I was made a bloody ambassador to one of the sites for my community service and counseling VICTIMS, not those with it, as always its the people HURT who seek help !! Those afflicted, have little or no conscience, no remorse and NO REGRETS, no shame and actually a common trait in most of them is to rewrite history.

I could go on, and an ability to SWITCH one attack to another, maximizing something, say a fault and MINIMIZING another and throwing an accusation in and seamlessly switching from lying to I hate you, then I love you, OH I want to kill you, and all the time gaslighting your very soul, chipping away and leaving you with NO idea who or what you are. Oh lots of tactics and as a counselor and .... well bugger me ... an ambassador, the strange and FUNNY to someone cured and well past the pain and helping others is the language and tactics and even words are IDENTICAL at times despite say helping someone in say the UK or someone from Sweden or NZ.

Oh and the favorite tools, are bringing a machine gun to a fist fight , or recently it was nuclear bombs to a discussion that went from I hate you to I love you and your my bestie !!! Second is the old accuse the pother person of something that ... YOUR DOING ... they are on the defensive, and if they defend you with NO conscience or compassion or anything rip them to SHREDS.

YOU CANNOT .... EVER ... win a discussion, argument or even present logic to these types, then again to followers of faith, or paid PR types or delusional ... same thing. Oh have I had some funny economic discussions over the years.

There is of COURSE no excuse for violence and NONE whatsoever for it, or abuse, or hidden abuse. It leads to the abused eventually becoming CO- Dependent and suffering abuse syndrome and PTSD and even Stockholm syndrome. One wonder WHY an abused person and YEP guilty stays in abusive relationship ? Some its physical, some its extreme verbal and cruelty and so on and so forth. Some it kindness, some compassion and being given a choice to believe someone is the poor innocent one, is my sins among others, in extreme and prolonged cases, even short ones, wishing for even a pause, and they become briefer and briefer as they cycle from I love you I hate you ....

just some rules for this .... of COURSE ... BOUNDARIES are the only solution and like expert sneaks, they nibble away at defenses and eventually ... you end up as accepting things, it you still had your right mind you never would !! NOT IN A PINK fit .... Oh I am sorry I spat in your food you just ate, will you be coming back to dinner ? Or I just put a whopping tariff on your goods, will you still be buying goods from my country ?

ASK APPLE .... Today about that. The Chinese actually with their NEW social points system COULD have added massive negative points to buying USA made goods, THEY DIDN'T need to because the Media in China is with cause tearing USA and its game to shreds.

Easy prediction is that the USA brand name is, well forever damaged by these antics.

Free trade of course NEVER EVER works without rules. But instead of, well, enforcing the rules, the agreements went out the window in a populist wave and hey presto, fines.

Sure most will have views on this but Apple pays NO tax anywhere and even when they do get caught up with, they slip down another hole. So too the rest of the bunch.

Australia in 2020 is about to get a surplus, without ... WITHOUT ... the 15 billion collected from evasions, this NEVER would have occurred. Basically enough to build and fund 5 very large regional hospitals here and FUND THEM FOR 10 years !!

We I might add had to BEG .... BEG not to be included in this tariff wave and EU and Canada along with China lock horns still. Mexico, went well .... whatever .... why ? Its trade balance is TWO WAY and BALANCED and whilst China I am not suggesting has been closed to investment and trade, is, what it is. Either you wanted goods made at $2- an hour labor costs or $20-.

Back to abuse stuff ...
World is suffering PTSD and at best Stockholm syndrome .... Economically.
Not a prediction, sadly a fact. Let me distract you, accuse you, then send in the likes of Apple and Google and Goldman Sachs and Chevron and PAY NO TAX .... and if your complaining ... Oh and Glencore who the last two export billions in resources yet pay NO tax ... here.

Sorry pet topic tax inversion and THEFT .... but ATO has done a great job, but only got .... 20% of it ... yep ... its that large ... the theft.

Dealing with abusers and wife bashers and violence in the form of economic terrorism for the NEW ORDER ... of USA based Oligarchs, NO not a conspiracy theory, sadly a fact the tax paid ,,, the ONLY SOLUTION ....

IGNORE the abuser ... IGNORE them .... and if it was a relationship, the poor battered soul eventually gasps for air and .... the ONLY .... ONLY way to get away from the diseased is LEAVE and NO CONTACT.

Contact ... ANY CONTACT ... listening ... EMAILS and TWITTER .... what a joke ... is POISON. The ABUSER seamlessly will creep back in and the battered wife is BACK on promises of they will CHANGE. Individual cant change and sadly at times nations, loose their way. For the individual usually something traumatic happened in younger years, not hugged enough, wet their pants till they were 14, breast fed NOT enough or like in game of Thrones that young price till age 14. An aside...

NO CONTACT.

GROW SOME BALLS and ENFORCE boundaries may be a stupid wish for 2019, but economic terrorism is something I have commented on time to time. SADLY is TIME again.

Watch this, ex president of Mexico and a nation with one of the better healthcare systems run Universally for its people, IT A CLASSIC and will make you laugh.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYZKrn7Bbl8...ndex=8&t=0s

Paying attention to idiots, abusers and well .... stupid ... and I am not being arrogant in this, merely many years has taught me to present a scientific unbiased case, and impartial, clinical and NOT linking stupid cause and effect or bogus models .... and EVEN then .... of course humans will choose. As they SHOULD. Having done so, on some very vigorous discussions that were fan clubs and PR central for companies and being critical of a claim via a company is .... NEVER welcome ... but pointing out the study or PRODUCT or accounts are BOGUS ... is of value to some.

Some, WILL NEVER be convinced and sadly, the Uranium discussions I have had is just one of many in say 2007, going ... gee there are 7 new mines coming on Line in Kazakhstan, Olympic dam as 75 years of WORLD supply costing NOT a lot to produce as its a BY product .... v Copper and gold and silver ... the SHORT term supply situation caused by a few one offs evaporated and even the prediction about 50 year old reactors NOT being so safe and NEW reactors ... WILL cost 5 times predictions ... NOPE ... it is what it is. PRESENT your case and RUN.

Reality, RELIGION and POLITICS and investing .... one supposedly should not discuss any of them and GOOD reason, Faith based ideals vs scientifically unquestionable WILL NEVER agree. Nor people faithful to a party, and THIS is 25% NO MATTER what and closer to 40% will hold those beliefs. Investing and I am an old fart, those who know WHO I actually am, which is NO ONE from NO where ... to have Joe Hockey read out 90 seconds word for word about tax inversion of something I wrote in his last speech was amusing ... same for two of the largest funds and hedge funds in the world about Inequality in the USA ... and ISSUES ...

IT DOES NOT ... mean one is ALWAYS right. LISTEN and make your mind up !! Not to me, but to anything presented to you as FACTUAL or REAL. So many things presented as correct are mere, well, crap produced by those who have vested interests and going back to something NOT so topical, Uranium ... the supposed ... experts were ... WERE lobby groups paid for by the USA Nuclear Plants.

BE VERY CAREFUL as to SOURCE ...

BE VERY CAREFUL and SKEPTICAL .. in the extreme of statistics, one of the things I have shared in the past, is BREAKDOWN of SOURCE data and methodology of STATISTICS ... and POST 2000, USA has gone from BAD ... to WORSE THAN ZIMBABWE

Enough ... drivel for now ....
In December ASX 200 outperformed and CAUGHT UP with the USA equities .... Nealy ending positive ... V USA.

Then again, under-performance V USA is massive, or was, but we decided NOT to trade Medicare and various other things for 21% tax and 90% to the top end ...

Stay cool ... lights are changing and time for SOMEONE ... somewhere to SAY NO .... I joked about the USA ambassador the NEW one ... the girl about to have her meagure $180 per month food stamps cut off ... for MRS Gates and co, I would suggest sending the ambassador back to the USA with a protest ... on comments about USA fighting our wars ... when US and NZ and UK .... paid a toll. so horrific in WW1 it defies discussion but 5 times the USA losses per capita. So on one hand GLAD they stepped in ... forever thankful ... same for WW2 and without Coral Sea and Midway, and again not to belittle anyone's losses .... I merely object as always to the obvious. When 9/11 occurred, actually 28 nations, yes 28 ... went to WAR .... not just one. Our contribution in the last 100 years, has been ... 60 odd joint ones.

Strange strange world we live in .... have some more OBVIOUS truths and no, I actually love 99% of Americans and are deeply grateful ....

More important things going on .... even than that ... but most important ... tell someone you love them ... give them a hug and TELL THEM WHY ... markets, hot air and the rest ? Will do better with sharing a view in 2019 for what its worth. Lost a few in 2018, ARTY and some others who have astounded who the anonymous were in reality and DEEPLY humbled and appreciative of their help, guidance and tolerance at times over the years.

GO HUG them ... NOW
  Forum: Investment Discussion

kahuna1
Posted on: Dec 17 2018, 03:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,838