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mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Farmers would be smarter selling all their water entitlements to Investors.
Much easier than trying to make a living out of farming.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041


Here is an interesting tid bit.

QUOTE
James Gorman, chair and chief executive of global investment bank Morgan Stanley, might have lived in New York for more than 30 years but he says his heart has never left Australia and he is “deeply honoured” by his Australia Day award.

He was Sunday named as a member of the Order of Australia (AO) for “distinguished service to the finance and banking sectors” through executive roles at the national and international level.

Gorman, 61, one of the most successful Australian business people on the global stage, recently put his money where his heart is with a personal donation of $1m to support the volunteer firefighters battling the nation’s bushfires.

“Like many Australians, I was just doing my bit,’ he says of his family’s contribution.

Mr Gorman, who is one of 10 children, said his Order of Australia award meant an enormous amount to him.

In 2006 he joined Morgan Stanley, rising to become CEO in 2010 and also assuming the title of chairman in 2012.


Nearly choked on my Salami on Rye over this one.

Here is a man who has headed an organisation that since the year 2000, has had had 79 violations against various fedral laws.
Some of them must have been a bit serious as the Bank has forked out over 9.7 billion USD in fines.

Of course he may not have committed any of these transgressions, but he is the man at the top. looked what happened to those at the top in OZ.

The sins of Morgan Stanley have been catalogued Here.

Morgan Stanley has been right up there at the front of the queue gorging on the cheap funds provided by the New York fed in the Repo market.

Its particularly galling when you consider the enormous total remuneration paid to the heads of US banks

if thats the caliber of the people who get an AO, I doubt I would want one, even assuming I was in the running for a gong.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Silver up strongly over the weekend to 18.30 USD
In AUD terms, it is 26.81.
Killer could be the overnight US paper market which may try to crush the price again.
The critical level will be the September 2019 high of 27.50, levels not reached since back in 2010.
SVL reached 0.15 back then.
Sitting at 0.105 now.
Chance for a trade INMHO.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Silver up strongly over the weekend to 18.30 USD
In AUD terms, its 26.81.
The critical level will be the september 2019 high of 27.50, levels not reached since back in 2010.
Silver miners and explorers should benefit upon opening tomorrow.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Gold sitting at $2327 an ounce.
For those who don't sell forward or have a small book compared to production, should be good for gold producers.
Expect further increases as the rotorvirus in China panics people into buying gold etc.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

AUD heading down again, getting close to breaking into the 67 handle.
The other commodity currencies such as Brazillian real and Canadian loonie have also fallen, so presume it is an expectation of slowing trade.
Perhaps bought on by the Chinese Virus, less Tourism in particular.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yo Patrick, don't suppose you work for YIG by any chance??

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 24 2020, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Couple of new states added to the approved list. But most importantly, EDE have been granted US patents over Edencrete and Edenplast.
It brings the number of us Patents to 10 twith three more under consideration.
The other part of the announcement regarding a USD 1.85 Mill credit facility seems a bit steep at an interest only payment of 12% with mortgages obver their US properties.
Thought they would have done better getting a loan in OZ
QUOTE
The financing has been undertaken to provide working capital for the Eden Group
of companies, as they continue to work to increase sales of both the EdenCrete®
range of products and the OptiBlend® dual fuel systems. A steady increase in
these sales is targeted over the coming one-two years


This could be make or break time. They really need to up those sales to (a) pay down that loan and (b) give some credence to their long term plans.
I still hold

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 24 2020, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The Millionaires factory may be in a spot of regulatory bother.
QUOTE
Sixty current and former Macquarie employees, including its chief executive Shemara Wikramanayake, have been named as suspects in a German investigation into short-selling activities.

Key points:
60 former and current Macquarie employees are among 400 suspects in a German tax scam probe
The schemes being investigated are known as "cum-ex trades", where two parties simultaneously claim ownership of the same shares and therefore claim tax rebates they are not entitled to
The practice was banned in Germany in 2012, but could have cost German coffers billions
German prosecutors and tax authorities are seeking to recover billions of euros from traders and banks that allegedly profited from schemes known as "cum-ex trades".

It is being alleged that financial institutions exploited a legal loophole which, at the time, allowed two parties to simultaneously claim ownership of the same shares, and therefore claim tax rebates which they were not entitled to.

Macquarie is among 400 suspects in total that are being investigated by German authorities.

The investment bank acted as a lender to a group of funds involved in the share trading in 2011, from which it withdrew in 2012.

The practice was banned in Germany in 2012.

In a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange, released to the market after close of trade on Thursday, Macquarie said the probe, which originally involved 22 original suspects including its chief executive Ms Wikramanayake, and the company's former chief executive, Nicholas Moore, had now extended to 60 current and former employees.

Ms Wikramanayake, who was previously Macquarie's head of asset management, replaced former chief executive Nicholas Moore as CEO in December 2018.

Macquarie said most of the 60 suspects are no longer at the investment bank, and no current Macquarie employees had yet been interviewed as part of the investigation.


Obviously the market sees it as a storm in a teacup.
Up another 1,36 today.
Resilience at its very best.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 24 2020, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Jeez, suspended until about Feb 10th as they try to convince the sophisticates to stump up more cash.
Not sure if this will be good in the near term.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 24 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

EB they don,t teach economics 101 anymore, its so old hat.
Theres a new paradigm in town, this time its different, no really!
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 24 2020, 07:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

To the people who wonder why I don't jump on the Climate change Bandwagon and remain as cynical as ever, I suggest you all have a read of this ABC NEWS article.


QUOTE
An Aboriginal not-for-profit company says a successful program of prescribed burning to prevent wildfires in northern Australia had earned Indigenous groups and landholders millions in carbon credits, and should be considered for the country's south.
There have been mounting calls to increase Indigenous cultural burning to reduce bushfire risk, and the topic was on the agenda at a Ministerial Roundtable on the Bushfire Environment Response this weekThe Emissions Reduction Fund has issued nearly 7 million Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) to 76 projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from intense, late-season blazes in fire-prone tropical savannas by conducting controlled burns in the cooler months.

Nearly half the savanna burning projects are managed or carried out by Indigenous Australians.

The Aboriginal Carbon Foundation has been involved in about a dozen of the projects, providing training and support, and obtaining a premium price for the proponents' carbon credits.
Each carbon credit unit represents one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent stored or avoided being released into the atmosphere.

Map of Australia with markers across the top of WA, NT and Queensland
PHOTO: Savanna burning projects registered under the Emissions Reduction Fund across northern Australia. (Supplied: Clean Energy Regulator)
With the average price per tonne of abatement $14.17, it means the projects combined have earned at least $98 million worth of carbon credits.

The credits can then be sold back to the Federal Government or passed on to businesses, who often pay a premium price to offset their emissions while ticking off other corporate social responsibility targets.

One group that has turned savanna burning into a lucrative business is the Olkola Aboriginal Corporation of Queensland's Cape York Peninsula, which has earned about $3 million in carbon credits since 2014.

The group is one of the largest landholders on Cape York, managing 869,822 hectares of its traditional country.

Chief executive Debbie Symonds said about 60 per cent of the corporation's revenue was from carbon abatement, allowing it to diversify its business interests.


So, we are paying people to light fires.
These fires emit CO2. So they contribute to carbon Pollution, but its so much better than regular pollution.
But wait, thats not all. With each ton of carbon saved, they get carbon credits which they can sell back to the government.
So its a double whammy.
It would seem that somehow, carbon released by Aboriginal prescribed burning is much better than regular carbon, and is worth more.
The write of the article obviously sees no irony in this.
Is this the double good Newspeak that George Orwell wrote about in 1984??

A cynical Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 24 2020, 07:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

NAB are pushing the idea that Apple might add RESMED to their table of health related stocks.

FROM NABTRADE


QUOTE
Sleep apnea, CPAP, oxygen therapy: these are not Apple-associated words. Yet over the past few months, we've found it difficult to shake a heretical thought: why wouldn't Apple want to buy ResMed?

For the past five years or so, ResMed has been building what it describes as a 'connected care ecosystem' to make its respiratory devices more useful to patients and healthcare providers.


Key Points
Apple pushing into health monitoring
ResMed's patient and clinic data attractive
Rapidly growing, large market
The company has spent nearly US$2.0bn on acquisitions that strengthen its software, data management and analytics capabilities. It's this basket of connected digital services - and their piles of consumer healthcare data - that we think could soon put ResMed in Apple's sights, if it isn't already.

It's worth understanding these units a little better before we explain why 2020 could see a big deal.


The golden four
In 2014, ResMed introduced a cloud-based software platform called 'Air Solutions', similar to the Apple interface that seamlessly links your Apple products behind the scenes.

The major selling point was the 'AirView Monitoring and Compliance Management System' which enables doctors to wirelessly monitor how and when a patient uses their machine, collect diagnostic and therapy information, and - somewhat creepily for the technophobes - 'monitor and change your patients' device settings remotely without having to leave your desk.'

In 2016, ResMed went all in on this strategy, buying US-based software maker Brightree for US$800m so that it could integrate billing, patient resupply, procurement and business analytics into its system.
So why Apple? And why now?

ResMed's market cap of US$22bn would normally make it too large for any company to buy. If Apple did buy it, it would be the largest transaction in Australian history, assuming Apple would need to pay a 15-30% premium for shareholders to bite.

Still, with US$100bn of cash sitting on Apple's balance sheet, the company would have no trouble making an offer. More importantly, ResMed could be worth a lot more in Apple's hands than as either a standalone company or in the hands of a competitor.

Since the launch of the Apple Watch a few years back, Apple has continuously added tools to help consumers monitor and manage their health. From the Apple Watch's new heart monitoring and ECG functions, to support for hearing aids, women's health and medication reminders, Apple clearly sees health monitoring and management as a key part of its future.

On the face of it, sleep apnea may sound too niche for Apple but it's a condition with a huge pool of undiagnosed patients. Sleep apnea affects over 900 million people worldwide, while asthma affects a further 150 million. Some 80% of those are undiagnosed. Of the billion people who own an Apple product, roughly 100 million or so are likely to have either sleep apnea or asthma.

Furthermore, three recent acquisitions suggest Apple already has its eyes on the segment. In 2016, the company acquired Gliimpse, which allows patients to store and share healthcare records. In 2017, it bought Beddit, which makes sleep sensors and sleep monitoring software. And in 2019, it bought Tueo, which makes under-the-mattress sensors to detect asthma.

If Apple continues to push into health monitoring - particularly sleep medicine, respiratory disorders, and asthma - we're hard pressed thinking of a better acquisition than ResMed. ResMed would significantly bolster Apple's intellectual property in those areas, and it would put Apple at the heart of the doctor's office too, allowing it to control the flow of data from the first beep of a monitoring sensor to record management, referrals and treatment.

Trying to put a precise figure on what all that is worth to Apple would be an empty exercise. Tech acquisitions tend to be valued far more on strategic hopes than on current earnings.

Nonetheless, with the CPAP device market growing at 11% a year and Brightree's revenue growing at twice that rate, we think ResMed could have US$600m or more in net profit a few years from now, up from US$419m today. ResMed's forward price-earnings ratio of 38 looks steep, but for a business of this quality with that sort of income and growth rate, we think it's justified.


I think I would want something a little more compelling than that spiel.
On a PE of over 50, it seems a little overpriced.


Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 23 2020, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

looks like i am not the only one who doubts whether the squeeze on Palladium will transfer to the other PMs.

This is a quote from some opne commenting on the original Sprott article.
QUOTE
Craig, the Fed has little or no interest in palladium. That is the crucial difference. The Fed has an unlimited amount of money with which to create phony paper gold and silver. It will back-stop all of its bullion bank proxies to prevent them from failing. If the Fed has to shut down COMEX long gold/silver ala Hunt brothers, it will. Liquidation only. You can sell but you cannot go long until Fed says so. Once prices are crushed back to where Fed thinks they should be, normal paper trading will resume. If some smartalek traders try to go long again, it will be wash, rinse, repeat until Fed completely kills gold and silver market. It cares not! Fed only cares about saving their Frankenstein dollar creation and will do anything to preserve the illusion of the mighty dollar. Sorry to be so cynical and pessimistic but I have been watching this charade since 2011 and cannot see why Fed would relinquish control of gold and silver price setting mechanism that is the COMEX.


Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 23 2020, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The AUD jumped 0.5% after lower unemployment stats were released.
From ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Australia's unemployment rate edged down for the second consecutive month to end 2019 at 5.1 per cent, its lowest level since March last year.

Key points:
Solid growth in part-time work drove the unemployment rate down to 5.1 per cent in December
The ranks of the unemployed fell by 13,000 to just below 700,000
The result is likely to ease the pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut rates at its February meeting
The improvement was driven by a solid gain of almost 29,000 jobs over December, however this was entirely due to part-time opportunities.

Full time employment fell by 300 jobs over the month.

Australian Bureau of Statistics chief economist Bruce Hockman noted full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) remained below the average annual growth over the past 20 years while part-time employment growth (3.2 per cent) was above the average annual growth

"While there has been stronger growth in part-time employment over the past year, the underemployment rate is still where it was last December, at 8.3 per cent," said Mr Hockman.

A steady participation rate and the new jobs were enough to thin the ranks of the unemployment below 700,000 for the first time in almost a year.


Don't know why anyone takes notice of these stats.
About as reliable as my first car, and old Austin A40.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 23 2020, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Sprott along with others such as Ted Butler , Chuck Casey and the usual bullion sellers have all been screaming about the manipulation of PM markets via the COT reports for as long as I have been investing.
Everything they say is true, its been well documented, and the head of the CFTC, Bart Chilton admitted on his death bed that JP morgan had manipulted rhe PM markets via paper derivatives for yeas.

The problem is, that Central banks throughout the world need this fractional market manipulation to keep going to stave off a currency collapse.
So although everything points to a collapse, I have my doubts as the rulers of the world (the big commercial banks) want the status quo to keep going.
Yes they will pay the occasional fine. Yes some of their employees will be thrown under a bus. But it will keep going.
Personally, I would love to see the collapse of the rigged COT markets get killed, I would make a lot of money. The problem is at that stage, money may well be worthless.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 22 2020, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Are you a ramper from HC??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 22 2020, 09:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Quarterly out this morning not received as well as I expected.
Gold production up on Sep quarter at a lower AISc, Gold sales at a higher price.
Three of the four ventilation shafts are completed and working, with the fourth expected in April 2020.
Net cash on hand increased slightly and the cash contribution was 50% higher than last quarter.
One might think these were good enough numbers to give SBM a kick along.
However, the forecast contains some gloomier bits.
Both Gwalia and simberi gold production will be lower than last forecast at higher AISC.
The biggest concern is that there has been a consistent fall in gold production from the above two mines since sep september 2018.
So its sort of neutral, given that gold prices are expected to rise, but its not the stick i thought it was going to be.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 21 2020, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The Climate Change debate has been hi-jacked in so many ways its laughable.
1. My local grocer )(I will not name the entity) is urging all customers to donate 2$ in their payment to go to towards a"assisting communities affected by climate change induced bushfires'.
So what is likely to happen to my 2 bucks along with the other thousands of 2 bucks??
The Corporate entity will take all that and probably add a few thou of their own and make a public song and dance about their virtue as they hand the thous to some tax deductable charitable organisation.
And of course they will claimm the donation in total as a Tax deduction.
Of course this corporate entity is not alone in this. There are probably lots of others doing similar things.

2.According to the Australian
QUOTE
The world’s most powerful central banks have issued a stark warning that climate change could trigger the next financial crisis, as a “disruptive” shift in asset prices sparks an unpredictable “green swan” event and potentially leaves some economies unviable.

In an expansive new report, the Bank of International Settlements has warned that central banks around the world risk becoming “climate rescuers of last resort”.

This could involve spending billions of taxpayer dollars rescuing devalued assets or stranded investments to “save the financial system once more” in the event of a disruptive transition to a low-carbon ­economy, characterised by wild fluctuations in asset prices ­triggered by the warming of the planet or the policies put in place to achieve emissions targets.


What a convenient scapegoat. The fact that these same central Banks have fuelled numerous asset bubbles with their race to negative interest rates and constant injections of funds into banks etc is far more likely to cause the next GFC (assuming its not already here, we just havent noticed). Talk about self serving overpaid parasites. Their answer to climate change is to centralise more and more power nn the hands of these unelected elites.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 21 2020, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Things just keep getting worse for the BDI.
From Zero hedge
QUOTE
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index hit a nine-month low on Monday, dragged down by falling rates of capesize and panamax segments as world trade continues to slump.

The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities across the world, dropped 25 points, or 3.3%, to 729 (according to Refinitiv data), the lowest level since April 2019:

The capesize index .BACI dropped 119 points, or 16.7%, to 593 - its lowest since April 23.The index registered its 27th straight session of losses, and also its largest daily percentage loss since early April.

Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000-180,000 tonne cargoes including iron ore and coal, fell $592 to $7,760.

The panamax index .BPNI lost 4 points, or 0.5%, to 866.

Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, declined $39 to $7,791.

The supramax index .BSIS remained unchanged at 560 points.

And it was no surprise to us Monday that the IMF slashed the global economic outlook for 2019 to 2.9% in October, the lowest since the financial crisis, and warned that global trade growth is "close to a standstill."

The Baltic Dry Index is seen as a leading indicator that provides a clear view of the global demand for commodities and raw materials.


Not sure what value the IMF forecasts may be.
Like so many of the expert economists they need to have the spelling changed to econo-misseds.
They so frequently miss their forecasts as to be almost irrelevant.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 20 2020, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

SLR had a pretty solid quarterly.
All the ducks lining up.
Approaching an all time high, maybe its all those shorters covering their posteriors.
Onwards and upwards.
Another happy goldie,
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 20 2020, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yo Jacsar, LKE in a trading halt.
Capital raising by any chance??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 19 2020, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Looks like the POTUS is getting real serious about clearing out the swamp.
From ZH
QUOTE
According to a statement published by the Naval Air Station Jacksonville, the US Navy is preparing to conduct live bombing raids with fighter jets at a training facility in the middle of Florida this weekend.

The Navy will fly McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornets from 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. from Saturday through Sunday, dropping live and inert bombs at Pinecastle Range Complex in the Ocala National Forest.

Residents in surrounding communities will hear explosions and loud noises, especially fighter jets traveling at subsonic speeds.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

ALK running hot. Must be something up.
Maybe all those who took part in the share placement want to make a stag profit.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 16 2020, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

One of the problems about the climate debate is the use of statistics to support each sides various positions.
For Instance, Jo Nova, a well known sceptic, has posted that
QUOTE
The amazing thing is that Australia’s population has grown by a whopping 38% since 1990. And our emission have grown with that, but the emissions per person has declined by 28% per person. Why aren’t the Greens more excited?

As with all these statistics, watch the pea for the real story. Most of that decline is not due to solar panels, pink batts, bird blending wind towers, energy efficiency, or even economic trends — it is predominantly due to cutting down fewer trees. The “improvements” are in the “land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)” sector, of which the “LUCF” basically means deforestation, afforestation and reforestation. The decline is mostly thanks to farmers like Peter Spencer, who was not allowed to cut down trees on his land (and who, by the way, will be back to finish his case against the Commonwealth in February).

Without accounting for regrowth of trees since 1990, our per capita emissions would only have declined by 8%.



I tried searching for articles outlining which countries will reach their Paris commitments, buts its enormously difficult to find any definitive results.
There are plenty of sites accusing the usual suspects of not meeting their goals, but none of them ever spell out how they measure the emissions.
For instance, I was reading an article about how the US is responsible for the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions. This seemed at odds with everything else until I looked at the caption below the graphs which stated that it was the cumulative estimated total of CO2 emissions since 1750!
How they arrived at these estimates, we have no idea.
Rubbery figures abound.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 16 2020, 09:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Just to add a little music to the debate.
Thank God I became a denier

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 03:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Thanks Joules for your response, though I have to admit I am not really much wiser.
Perhaps its best if I just keep out of these things.
Sometimes a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Actually, while you TA chaps are waiting for the next big kill, how much credence do you all put on RSI??
Personally, I had always felt it was one of those bits of info that is very accurate after the event rather than as a predictive element, but then I know FA about TA.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 08:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Think I understand EB, though my initial thought was that you were talking about Repetitive Strain Injury (from too much typing.).
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2020, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And now they have added Alabama to the list of Approvals. They are now approved in 45% of states, and just over 50% by land area.
This should transform into some decent sales in the near term.
Be informative to see the level of sales for the half year to dec 31.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2020, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

one of Cricinfos editors has an unfortunate name.

From Cricinfo

QUOTE
Vishal Dikshit in Mumbai


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2020, 07:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

This may have no bearing on OZ indeces, but read last night that the top 5 companies in the S& P Index contribute 18% of the total index weighting.
Concentration?

Now thats a concentration of power.
The same article goes on to point out that in 1978, the top 1% of National Income earners had a bit over 11% of the total income earned, while the bottom 50% earned about 20% of the total income.
By 2018 those figures had reversed such that the top 1% of income earners got 22% of total income, and the bottom 50% dumped down to 11%.

Inequality?
Now thats inequality.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 11 2020, 02:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Thought it might have had a bigger drop.
Will add to my holdings anyway.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 11 2020, 02:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Fair Point, but all the other players have either been playing test cricket or T20.
Very different beasts all of them.
T20 has a lot more similarities to ODI than test cricket.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 10 2020, 09:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

So Maxwell performs another match winning act for the Renegades.
His scores this season : 62,83,2,43, 0NO, 1, 40NO, 59NO , and now 83NO.
Ya gotta wonder how the likes of Handscombe, Short and Agar can be in the Aus ODI team ahead of him.
He must have had an affair with the coach;s wife.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 9 2020, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Found a nice new scam this week.
Someone gave me a $100 wine voucher for naked wines.
I went on their web site to cash it in, and picked out a case of wine that with the discounts would cost me $84.
Started getting emails from the company congratulating me on becoming a Naked wines angel, with the details about how responsible they would be with the $40 they would be taking out of my credit card every month.
Woa, says I , I didn't sign up for this.
It seems that if you choose certain case lots, you automatically become an angel.
I did not see anywhere on the web site that I had accepted being an angel.
Had a fun call to some consultant, telling him what I was going to do if anything other than the agreed payment was taken out.
Had a look at consumer affairs, it seems I am not the first person to be sucked in by this scam.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 9 2020, 08:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Gold and Silver down sharply overnight as the US experts see the tensions between Iran and the US easing.
Thats fine by me.
I will buy more and wait for the next international flashpoint to start the next round o increases.
After each surge of the PM's over the past years or so, the lows are still higher than the previous lows, so there is a gradual increase in PM prices.
Money to be made in trading.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 9 2020, 08:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Something else that needs to be considered is the sheer number of cape sized bulk carriers that are trying to ply their trade.
The graph in the link Here

shows the massive increase in bilk carriers from from 2010 onwards. As these ships have a lead time in years, there may well be still more being brought into the fleet, particularly in China and Korea.

The tonnage far exceeds the increase in bulk shipments (even allowing for the massive jump in Iron ore and coal).

And as more and more ships are brought in, they increase in size and the smaller ones get scrapped.


So there are many factors that need to be considered.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 8 2020, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I have no idea of what the lag time is.
Mainly because I see most of the indexes have been artificially inflated for the past few years.
Here in Oz the indexes are propped up by the poor returns on other assett classes ( cash, and until recently gold) , plus the ever increasing amounts of money flowing into super.
Just about every other country are running an effective negative interest regime.
In the US its low interest regime combined with the corruption of the Fed and the commercial banks.
So I can’t help you there.
I think another issue is that less and less of the GDP in western economies are reliant on the production of goods. More and more of the economy is driven by service industries.
So the effect of the slowing goods has less and less impact over time.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2020, 03:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Remember when we watched the BDi with interest to see what one of the leading indicators was telling us??
Well from the following chart we can see that it has crashed below 850 after hitting the heady highs of 2500 only last September.low of 540 in
And that was after climbing from a 12 month low of 540 back in Feb.
BDI Chart
So, I guess its tellong us that international trade is falling off a cliff.

Hard to believe that less than 10 years ago it hit a peak a smidgin below 12,000.
Now thats a serious fall.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2020, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Fruedian slip if ever there was one!
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2020, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

profit taking today. all of my goldies bar GML down today.
But its been a great ride .
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2020, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

That old saying about those who don't heed history are bound to repeat its mistakes still holds true.

From WOP

QUOTE
According to the latest derivatives report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Citibank, the federally-insured, taxpayer-backstopped bank owned by Citigroup, has sold protection to other banks, hedge funds, insurance companies or corporations on a staggering $858 billion of Credit Default Swaps. When a federally-insured bank sells protection to others on Credit Default Swaps, it is effectively taking on the risk of a default event. At a time of unprecedented levels of debt in the system and growing warnings about leveraged loans, that seems like a very unwise move by Citigroup.

The OCC notes that Citibank has bought protection via a larger amount of Credit Default Swaps – a total of $898.8 billion. (See Table 12 in the Appendix of the report.) There is no guarantee, however, that these bets are properly aligned and will not, once again, blow up this bank along with a chunk of Wall Street firms or insurance companies that may be its counterparties.

Credit Default Swaps played a central role in the 2008 financial collapse on Wall Street, as did Citigroup. It is an indictment of every federal banking regulator in the United States, as well as Congress, that Citigroup has been allowed to return as a major player in this market while using its federally-insured Citibank once again as a pawn in this game.

Adding to the outrage, it was Citigroup that was responsible for overturning the portion of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 that would have pushed these derivatives out of federally-insured banks.

It may also help to explain why the New York Fed continues to fling hundreds of billions of dollars each week at the trading houses on Wall Street while the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, insists that everything is just fine on Wall Street.

The official report from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, following an in-depth investigation of the 2008 collapse, wrote this about Credit Default Swaps:

“OTC derivatives contributed to the crisis in three significant ways. First, one type of derivative—credit default swaps (CDS)—fueled the mortgage securitization pipeline. CDS were sold to investors to protect against the default or decline in value of mortgage-related securities backed by risky loans…

“Second, CDS were essential to the creation of synthetic CDOs. These synthetic CDOs were merely bets on the performance of real mortgage-related securities. They amplified the losses from the collapse of the housing bubble by allowing multiple bets on the same securities and helped spread them throughout the financial system…

“Finally, when the housing bubble popped and crisis followed, derivatives were in the center of the storm. AIG, which had not been required to put aside capital reserves as a cushion for the protection it was selling, was bailed out when it could not meet its obligations. The government ultimately committed more than $180 billion because of concerns that AIG’s collapse would trigger cascading losses throughout the global financial system. In addition, the existence of millions of derivatives contracts of all types between systemically important financial institutions—unseen and unknown in this unregulated market—added to uncertainty and escalated panic, helping to precipitate government assistance to those institutions.”

“Unseen and unknown” are the operative words in the above paragraph. The Credit Default Swaps were, both then and now, mostly over-the-counter private contracts between a bank and a counterparty. The major Wall Street banks had no idea which of their banking peers had major exposure to bets that were collapsing in value, so the banks simply stopped lending to one another. That sounds a lot like what is happening today and why the New York Fed has become the lender of last resort as well as liquidity supplier of last resort.

Citigroup’s derivatives exposures rendered it a financial basket case during 2008. Not only did Citigroup receive $45 billion in equity infusions from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) approved by Congress and announced publicly but it went hat in hand and received a bailout from the same federal regulators who had allowed this house of cards to engage in absurd levels of risk. The government guaranteed over $300 billion of its dodgy assets; the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guaranteed $5.75 billion of its senior unsecured debt and $26 billion of its commercial paper and interbank deposits. And the New York Fed secretly hid from the public’s view that it had funneled $2.5 trillion (yes, trillion) to Citigroup and its trading units from December 2007 to at least July 21, 2010. That last information only became public after more than two years of court battles with the Fed.

There are more than 5,000 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Deposit Insurance Fund had $104.9 Billion in its Deposit Insurance Fund to cover all of those banks’ insured deposits as of the end of the first quarter of 2019.


US Mainstream media is replete with stories of Celebtrities, Climate Change, Donald Trumps faults, the start of the NFL football season, the democrats primaries, but none seem to want to run with these sort of issues.
is it because its too hard for the average Joe Blow?? Is it because its too hard for the investigative journalists to get their heads around?? Or is it because the media organisations are beholden to the big banks and trading houses because they (a) provide so much of their advertising revenue and (b) are providing a steady sream of bonuses as their share prices go up thanks to the liquidity increase?

When the crash comes, people will be demanding answers as to why they were not warned, and what is the government going to do about it. If the crunch comes before the next presidential election, trump is doomed. If the election is held before it, he will win in a canter.

Mick


  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 4 2020, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I would like to put big shout out to Donald Trump and his advisors who decided to bump off the Iranian general.
Middle Eastern politics at its best have pushed gold and silver well up.
And to top it off, the AUD has dumped that estr half cent it gained the other day./
My gold and silver shares have responded accordingly.
Expect further rises Monday.
I just luv it.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 30 2019, 02:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

From ABC NEWS

Are you one of the "everyday Australians" we hear politicians talking about?
QUOTE
Key points:
The median income in Australia is $48,360 before tax
Low income earners are struggling to pay bills or meet healthcare needs with some returning to work in their 70s
Sliding into debt becomes very easy for those trying to work and afford child care or health insurance
If you earn any more than $50,000 per year, you have already stepped out of the "average Aussie" bracket.

The median income in Australia is $48,360 before tax, according to a report released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics this month


I was just a little surprised at how low the figure was, for the median income, until I read further that this was taken from the ATO data dor the 2016-2017 year.

WTF??

Why on earth does it take 2 full tax years for the ABS to get this out?

So I went searching for the original paper which I found HERE

One of the links on the document refers to its Quality declaration.

From the above
[quote]Data in this publication are sourced from the Linked Employer Employee Dataset (LEED).

The LEED includes tax data supplied by the Australian Tax Office (ATO) to the ABS under the Taxation Administration Act 1953, which requires that such data is only used for the purpose of administering the Census and Statistics Act 1905. Any discussion of data limitations or weaknesses is in the context of using the data for statistical purposes, and is not related to the ability of the data to support the ATO's core operational requirements.


The ABS receives tax data from the ATO approximately 16 months after the end of the financial year. This data then requires processing time to construct Business Longitudinal Analysis Data Environment (BLADE) and to produce a coherent and clean persons dataset. These factors contribute to the long delay between the end of the financial year and the publication of statistics from the LEED.

Because taxation data may be submitted to the ATO after the ITR cut-off date, it may not be available at the time the ATO provides data to the ABS and is only added in future provisions. As such, annual data in the LEED can become more complete over time. This is estimated to have a slightly greater impact on the self-employed population than on the larger employee and employer populations, and a negligible impact overall.
/quote]

So for reasons unexplained, the data is not released for 16 months. This data does not include any identifying marks for an individual taxpayer.

so why is it so difficult??

The data is pretty much useless other than as of historical interest given it is so out of date.

And what of the ABC?? Unless you looked carefully at the source mention, most readers would assume its current data.

Why do we pay these dorks so much??


Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 30 2019, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Silver approaching USD$18 again.
$25.58 in AUD terms.
Will it now pass the most recent high of $28.75 ,
Prior to this the last time it was around 29 was back in 2016 and prior to that 2014.
Then you have to back to the 2011 period when it hit $44.
The absolute highest was $59 back in those heady days of 1980 when the Bunker Hunt brothers tried to corner the market..

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 29 2019, 02:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

From Corruptr US Banks and the Fed

QUOTE
As Wall Street On Parade has previously reported, JPMorgan Chase has been fingered as the bank that contributed to the Federal Reserve having to intervene in the overnight loan market on September 17 of this year, and every business day since then. The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, has flooded Wall Street’s trading houses with hundreds of billions of dollars weekly in cheap loans over the past three months. That cheap, pre-announced source of liquidity has not only caused the stock market to set multiple new historic highs but has caused the stock of JPMorgan Chase to set multiple new historic highs as well.

Jamie Dimon is the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Dimon admitted on his quarterly earnings call with analysts that his bank had backed away from lending on September 17. That backing away contributed to the overnight lending rate spiking from an average of about 2 percent to 10 percent on September 17. That rate spike was used by the Federal Reserve to justify its interventions – the first such interventions since the financial crisis.

But as it now turns out, few individuals have personally benefitted as much as Jamie Dimon as a result of the Fed’s actions.

Jamie Dimon is one of the largest individual shareholders in the stock of JPMorgan Chase. Those shares are the sole reason Dimon is a billionaire. On October 10, 2019, the shares of JPMorgan Chase closed at $114.21. On October 11, the New York Fed announced a dramatic escalation in its plans to flood money to Wall Street’s trading houses. It said it would be buying up $60 billion a month in Treasury bills; providing $35 billion twice a week in 14-day term loans; and making at least $75 billion in overnight loans available daily. (That $75 billion was later increased to $120 billion available daily.)

Here’s how the share price of JPMorgan Chase has reacted since the Fed’s announcement on October 11, 2019: On October 10, 2019, the day prior to the Fed’s announcement, the stock price of JPMorgan Chase closed its trading day at $114.21 per share. Yesterday, December 26, 2019, the share price of JPMorgan Chase closed at $139.04 – an increase in less than three months of 22 percent.

As Wall Street On Parade has previously reported, JPMorgan Chase has been fingered as the bank that contributed to the Federal Reserve having to intervene in the overnight loan market on September 17 of this year, and every business day since then. The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, has flooded Wall Street’s trading houses with hundreds of billions of dollars weekly in cheap loans over the past three months. That cheap, pre-announced source of liquidity has not only caused the stock market to set multiple new historic highs but has caused the stock of JPMorgan Chase to set multiple new historic highs as well.

Jamie Dimon is the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Dimon admitted on his quarterly earnings call with analysts that his bank had backed away from lending on September 17. That backing away contributed to the overnight lending rate spiking from an average of about 2 percent to 10 percent on September 17. That rate spike was used by the Federal Reserve to justify its interventions – the first such interventions since the financial crisis.

But as it now turns out, few individuals have personally benefitted as much as Jamie Dimon as a result of the Fed’s actions.

Jamie Dimon is one of the largest individual shareholders in the stock of JPMorgan Chase. Those shares are the sole reason Dimon is a billionaire. On October 10, 2019, the shares of JPMorgan Chase closed at $114.21. On October 11, the New York Fed announced a dramatic escalation in its plans to flood money to Wall Street’s trading houses. It said it would be buying up $60 billion a month in Treasury bills; providing $35 billion twice a week in 14-day term loans; and making at least $75 billion in overnight loans available daily. (That $75 billion was later increased to $120 billion available daily.)

Here’s how the share price of JPMorgan Chase has reacted since the Fed’s announcement on October 11, 2019: On October 10, 2019, the day prior to the Fed’s announcement, the stock price of JPMorgan Chase closed its trading day at $114.21 per share. Yesterday, December 26, 2019, the share price of JPMorgan Chase closed at $139.04 – an increase in less than three months of 22 percent.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 29 2019, 12:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yea, thought he was a bit unlucky, but technically was a correct decision, but looking at it in nreal time, ya wonder how he could be sure that one was out, but the earlier one against Blundell that was going to smash leg stump was given not out.
drs has not removed the umpiring controversies at all.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 28 2019, 07:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I thought the decision to bat again made sense for a number of reasons.
1.;Rest the OZ bowlers, tough they only bowled 55 overs.
2. Tire the black caps out both physically and mentally even more than they may be now.
3.Allow the pitch to deteriorate a little more, and the sun to bake it and open up a few cracks.
4. make a few more footmarks for Lyons to bowl into outside the left handers off stump.

But agree the decision to bowl Wade was madness.
Thought the decision not to overule the Sannter not out was a bit odd too.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 28 2019, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

This looks like a similar accident to another few that have occurred with the F100 in the past.
Performs extrermely poorly with ice on the wings and control surfaces.
Weather at the time had the temp at -12 , - 13 well below the dew point with high probability of clear ice forming.
A Palair F100 crashed on takeoff in 1993. Dutch investigators attributed the cause due to ice formation on the wings.
A crash at LAgardia was similarly atriributed to wing ice.

QUOTE
But the preliminary results of a Canadian investigation into an F28 crash three years ago in Dryden, Ontario, indicate that the design of the Fokker F28's wings requires extra caution during cold, wet weather, so that the wings are kept clear of ice. The Dryden accident, like the crash at La Guardia Sunday, occurred shortly after takeoff in a snowstorm.

On most modern commercial jets, a slat at the front of the wing slides forward and down shortly before takeoff. This increases the length of the top side of the wing so that more air takes the shorter route under the wing, providing lift.


Laqgardia Crash

After the loss of an f100 operated by an Air France subsidiary, the Eauropean Aviation Safety Agency mandated the fitting of on ground wing leading edge heating systems ".
EASA
QUOTE
It notes: "During the last few years at least two serious winter operation events with [the aircraft] are known to have occurred, associated with leading-edge ice contamination, as a result of which the two aircraft were written off.


Its early days yet, but the cicrumstances of the weather , the aircraft and behavior of the aircraft in these conditions bear many similar characteristics.

Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 25 2019, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Art Ccashin has some recent sucess at markets predictions.


For the second year in a row, Art Cashin, the head of UBS's floor operations at the NYSE, was spot-on with his market calls in 2019.

Last December, Cashin told CNBC that he expected the Federal Reserve wouldn't raise interest rates during the coming year. In fact, Cashin said late last year that he felt there was now "an outside chance" that the Fed would cut rates in 2019. At the time, many scoffed at that call. But Cashin turned out to be correct.
He was also correct about whether the US and China would manage to strike a long-term trade deal. "I don't believe so," Cashin said. "I think we will get something that approximates it, and you’ll get perhaps in midyear a relaxation rally, but - with - with the problems of - political sequencing, whatever, I don’t think it works out."


As for whether the US would succeed in striking a lasting trade deal with Beijing before the end of the year, Cashin insisted that the answer was 'most likely no'.

QUOTE
"I don’t believe so. I think we will get something that approximates it, and you’ll get perhaps in midyear a relaxation rally, but - with - with the problems of - political sequencing, whatever, I don’t think it works out."

So, Cashin sat down with CNBC's Bob Pisani at Bobby Van's Steakhouse, across from the NYSE, to discuss what Cashin sees coming down the pipe for markets in 2020.

Cashin offered three predictions - that's fewer predictions than usual: His first prediction was that there will be no Fed hikes over the coming year. His second is that the market's winning streak will continue, and that the big US stock indexes will finish the year higher.

Finally, although Cashin expects stocks to rise next year, their ascent will be punctuated by several periods of extreme volatility, particularly during the months of January, March and July.

Prediction one: Despite a still-strong U.S. economy, there will be no Fed rate hikes in the next year.

"I think the Fed is somewhat intimidated by the market...And the market, if anything, thinks the Fed is ahead of itself on higher rates."

Prediction two: The market winning streak will continue and the broader indexes will be up in 2020.

"Eight out of nine times that we’ve had an up year like we had this year, it’s followed by another decent up year. Not quite as strong, but still strong, and so I’ll go with history."


Prediction three: Stocks may be up, but there will be several periods of volatility, particularly in January, March and July.

"In late January, we’ll get to see if there’s going to be a Brexit now that [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson got a sweeping move in Parliament. And will he, in fact, push through a no-deal Brexit? That could make the markets very volatile and jumpy. The next thing will be the U.S. election. Number one, in early March, we will get Super Tuesday, and one-third of the U.S. populace will vote. And we’ll get to find out where [Democat Mike] Bloomberg’s strategy is. Who looks to be the leader? Has anybody locked it up? If not, then it could be a brokered convention, and that date would be in the middle of July, when the convention will be."


The full article and interview can be found HERE

He mentions that the level of funds injected into the repo market, is now higher than the level of QE they injected during the GFC.
And although the FEd refuses to call it QE, the calls it for what it is, QE.

I found it interesting that hes reason for predicting there would be no further rate increases was that the FEd is intimidated by the market. He says the market reckons that the FED got ahead of itself with the rate rises last year, , so Fed is a bit reluctant to increase again. (not that they have much reason to do so).

I particularly like his idea of going with history, namely in eight out of nine times an up year is followed by another up year, though not as strong.

The volatility index cashin talks about has been in a general downward trend since 2010 . This time last year, it was sitting on 30, today its just above 12.


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 20 2019, 04:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

At the risk of being accused of being a denier, the following graph is interesting in that one can read into it many conclusions.



The original comes from This article

The problem is, like all the graphs and charts that are posted here, we have no idea as to the accuracy or veracity of the data that is used to create it.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 19 2019, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

QUOTE
you copralitic dufus.

Would have to be the insult of the year.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 19 2019, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

There may yet be some life in these rallies.
From Real Investment advice
QUOTE
Every professional investor knows that month-ending, quarter-ending and year-ending timestamps are important. Throughout the year, positions are hedged against these timestamps, and as a result, the year-ending option expirations almost always have the highest open interest. Generally, the higher the open interest the greater the volatility and financial risk.

Last December, in and around the final option expiration of the year, the S&P 500 fell by nearly 300 points. This dramatic decline coincided with a spike in market gamma as shown below. It is my view that this decline was furthered by forced selling by the put sellers who needed to sell the S&P 500 index to cut their losses.

As we approach this year and the S&P 500 continues to grind higher, we may be facing the inverse of last year. Call sellers are beginning to feel more pain, as evidenced by a first-time spike in Forecast Gamma Neutral in my December 17th report. While I am not saying that stocks will melt up through the remainder of the year, the possibility of that scenario playing out is looking more likely. The chart below shows the relationship between the cash value in the SPX and the metric that I call Gamma Neutral.

SPX Value versus Prompt-Month Gamma Neutral


The Study of Market Gamma
There has been an increasing amount of attention to an “obscure” concept in the market called “gamma” over the past year. Last November, Bloomberg published an article titled: Two Words Which Sent the Oil Market Plunging: Negative Gamma. Since then, there have been an increasing number of market analysts – such as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott – who discuss the implications of gamma exposure in mainstream and other forms of financial media.

The study of “gamma” is akin to the study of market risk. When market gamma is relatively high, then financial risk is also high. When market gamma is relatively low, then financial risk is low. The study of gamma is based upon actual bets in the options markets—where hundreds of millions will exchange hands. In this way, the study of market gamma can be viewed as the ultimate “smart money” indicator. And, the gamma smart money indicator has a definitive time stamp, its option expiration date.

Option expiration this week for the S&P 500 week will occur at 9:30am and 4:00pm December 20th. At 9:30am, the SPX monthly options will expire, and at 4:00pm, the SPX, SPY and ES futures options will settle. The SPX monthly options expiring at 9:30am have several orders of magnitude more value-at-risk than the other option expirations.

Whereas other analysts tend to report on cumulative gamma, I tend to focus on discrete, time-stamp specific gamma metrics. The study of market gamma in all of its forms can provide context for mean-reversion events, Black Swan events, and intra-day volatility.

Gamma Implications For Year-End 2019
The graph above shows regular mean-reversion of the S&P 500 value back to the levels of Gamma Neutral, and that value is currently around 3,070, a 120 point drop from current levels. On the other hand, if call sellers in 2019 were to experience the same level of pain as the put sellers in 2018, then the level of the cash SPX would need to be at 3,295 today, a roughly 100 point increase from current levels.

So, from a “gamma” perspective alone, I will not be surprised to see a 100 point swing in SPX over the next week or so. Of course, there are other market risks such as China trade and impeachment proceedings. I will either be watching from the sidelines, or perhaps buy a straddle to profit from a big move in either direction.


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 19 2019, 08:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

But tesla just keeps marching on.
Hit an all time high of $390 overnight.
Must be the relief rally that Musk didnt get pinged for calling that brit diver a pedophile.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 17 2019, 07:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

QUOTE
Four of the 10 most populous countries in the world will no longer be among the top 10 in 2100 – and all four will be supplanted by rapidly growing nations in Africa, according to recently released population projections from the United Nations.

Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico are among the world’s 10 most populous countries today. By 2100, they are projected to be overtaken by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt – none of which are currently in the top 10.

This changing of the guard is expected to occur because of sluggish population growth over the next eight decades in Mexico (+10% by 2100) and population losses in Brazil (-15%), Bangladesh (-8%) and Russia (-14%). Each of the four African countries, by contrast, is expected to more than double in population, with increases of 304% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 156% in Ethiopia, 378% in Tanzania and 120% in Egypt.


FromPEW Research

Theres some big shifts in power associated with that.
Africa, the new Asia.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 17 2019, 06:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Not everyone agrees with my "the end is nigh" theory.
From MARKETWATCH ]comes an analyst views that suggests the bull market is about to get even stronger.

QUOTE
“Back up the truck and buy, buy, buy.”

That was the advice from Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, who sent a rousing note to clients late Thursday, on the heels of trade optimism that is lifting global equities at the week’s end and a decisive election outcome in the U.K. “All over the world, markets are falling love. Buy it. Buy it all,” reads the headline of that note.

Rupkey said a pair of geopolitical risks — an elusive U.S.-China trade deal and yearslong wrangling over Brexit — “thought to be strangling world economic growth” incredibly look to be getting resolved in a “big, big way.”

“There is some smoke and mirrors here, but it looks like this is the time for investors around the world to throw months of caution to the winds and take risk off the table, and they are, buying stocks and selling bonds with abandon, as the economic outlook brightens and central banks shelve their plans to cut interest rates further,” he writes.

Investors were waiting for more news on a trade deal after reports surfaced Thursday that the U.S. could trim existing import tariffs on Chinese goods, as well as delaying those set to kick in on Sunday. Notably though, China has remained silent on any deal progress in the wake of those developments.

Fewer question marks were hanging over U.K. politics, for the first time in more than two years as Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party cruised to victory and with a strong majority in Parliament may now “get Brexit done,” as he pledged. Questions over Brexit have been cited as a lingering headwind for investors globally.


Not sure about the view that QE and low interest rate environment is declining.
CB's are still playing the " my currency is lower than yours " game.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 13 2019, 10:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

So, will the political , media, education elites finally get the message from the rest of the UK constituents?.
Can’t get too much more emphatic than that.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 12 2019, 03:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Alem Dar umpires his 129th test today in perth, and thus becomes the umpire with the most tests.
Well done to him.
Was having a look at the list of umpires in order of matches umpired.
Obviously, most of the top 50 have been in the modern era when neutral umpires were used.
Given that India is such a powerhouse in world cricket these days, such that they can dictate to home teams when DRS is used or when and how many day/night tests are played,
I find it rather surprising that there are only two umpires from India in that top 50., and only one of them is a current umpire in the Elite umpire panel.
Off to watch it on TV.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 12 2019, 10:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The coming week or so is going to be very interesting.
First we have the UK elections. Will have a bearing on the Euro, the pound, and probably the precious metals.
If the status quo is maintained, namely a hung parliament, it will be deadly for the pound, and a boost for the PM's.
Then in fairly quick order in the US we have the impeachment vote (always good fun these impeachment votes), the new round of tariffs supposed to kick in,
and the big doozy, the quarterly tax payments are due.
if the banks had liquidity problems before this, they will only be exacerbated bu the massive outflows of cash heading to the federal government.
I still have my gold and silver shares.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 12 2019, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

So, the FEd says rates are staying where they are, and ;ottle chance of them moving in 2020.
So what happens, the USD falls 1% against the AUD, gold and silver both up, and the DOW up by a few cents.
One assumes the market expected another rate cut, and don't look like getting one any time soon.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 11 2019, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The Moore Boy does not do much for me.
I sat through the first part, but when he started to bring in religion, and quoting various religious figures as proof of the evisl of capitalism, I turned it off and went and had a bourbon with a bit of ice in it.
far more satisfying.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 11 2019, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

As a follow up to my long post yesterday, there seems to many theories as to why the repocollapse came about.
The one put forward by Quarles doesn't hold water.
Chuck Butler reckons it was because the big banks did not want to lend to the smaller institutions because they feared one or more of them were ion sufficient trouble to go belly up. Nah, most of the money seemed to be going to the big banks themselves according to the BIS.
David Gonigam of the 5 minute forecast reckons it has been a deliberate ploy by the 5 big banks to create a repo crisis as a leverage (read blackmail) to force the FED and Exec government to loosen regulations and ease up on their lending rules. A bit more plausible perhaps.
Another explanation put forward by zero hedge is that the big banks particularly JP Morgan have been dumping loans and buying treasuries, which have left them critically short of cash, hence their visits to the repo market support. This is backed up by a chart supplied by them showing the changes in cash versus treasuries.

But the really intriguing aspect is the prospect that this whole episode is part of the process that the big banks are front running the next round of QE to make even more money
From Zero hedge
QUOTE
at the largest US banks, something we addressed previously when we discussed how JPMorgan gamed the financial system to trigger "NOT QE", and a topic that Bloomberg touches on overnight in "Repo Firepower Reduced by Falling Cash Levels at Big U.S. Banks."

As Pozsar cautions, the core problem at the heart of the repo blockage is that as banks shifted from owning reserves to collateral (mostly Treasuries), for reasons we will address shortly, large U.S. banks like J.P. Morgan that are central to year-end flows spent some $350 billion of excess reserves on collateral since the beginning of the Fed’s balance sheet taper, leaving banks (and especially JPMorgan) dangerously low on reserves.

And while one can debate why banks shifted away from reserves to "collateral", Pozsar has a simple theory: "dealers and banks loaded up on collateral as a trade – a trade they were supposed to be taken out of by eventual coupon purchases by the Fed." In other words, here is a former Fed official admitting that banks were purchasing Treasuries as nothing more than a QE frontrunning ploy, something which the Fed has previously sworn was never the intention behind QE. After all, if it emerges that the Fed is essentially facilitating taxpayer-funded and perfectly legal frontrunning, making bank execs even richer in the process, the US central bank would have even fewer fans. And yet, here is arguably the most respected ex-Fed staffer explaining that one of the core roles of QE is just that.

Alas, here a problem emerged, because "the Fed never did that, and for the first time we’re heading into a year-end turn without any excess reserves."

Indeed, instead of buying coupon bonds as Dealers have been quietly demanding behind close doors, a process which would allow them to sterilize their massive Treasury holdings, the Fed announced in October it would only buy T-Bills in order to not freak out the market that it is officially launching QE 4 (as a reminder, the only semantic distinction between whether the Fed is doing QE or not doing QE is whether it is soaking up duration; the Fed's argument is that since Bills don't have duration, it's not QE. However once Powell starts buying 2Y, 3Y, 5Y and so on Treasuriess, the facade cracks and the Fed will have no more defense that what it is doing is precisely QE 4). And by buying Bills, it is not allowing commercial banks to exchange their coupon holdings for reserves (cash), but merely results in recirculation of sterilized Bill purchases.

Now most people don't understand this, and instead repeat the old maxim "don’t fight the Fed" which they claim is adding liquidity through repos and bill purchases, and what’s not in the system now will be there on year-end, and the turn will be just fine.

Only as Pozsar says "Not so fast!" and explains:

What we need for the [year-end] turn to go well are balance sheet neutral repo operations, or asset purchases aimed at what dealers bought all year: coupons, not bills – the former to get around foreign banks’ balance sheet constraints around year-end, and the latter to ensure that excess reserves accumulate with large banks like J.P. Morgan. Unfortunately, the Fed is doing neither.

He goes on:

Repo operations are done through the tri-party system which means they aren’t nettable, which in turn means that once balance sheet constraints start to bind around year-end, foreign dealers will take less liquidity from it to lend it to those in need on the periphery: central bank liquidity is useless unless primary dealers have balance sheet to pass it on, and that they’ve been passing it on since September does not mean they will at year-end.

Bill purchases are also ill conceived because banks and dealers don’t own any bills and so don’t have anything to sell to the Fed to boost their excess reserves ahead of year-end. In our view, the notion that bill purchases will force money funds down the yield curve to buy short coupons from primary dealers who would then pay off their repos with banks so that banks build up some excess reserves into year-end involves too many moving parts…

Which brings us to the first of the key observations made by Pozsar: since the Fed's repos and T-Bill monetizations have done virtually nothing to boost prevailing reserve levels on a sustained basis, "year-end balance sheet constrains will preclude primary dealers from bidding for reserves from the Fed through the repo facility or through repos from money funds. The slope of money market curves suggest that excess reserves won’t build up at banks, and so U.S. banks will not be able to fill the market making vacuum left by foreign banks."

In other words, the already thin liquidity at year end (which as a reminder, last December 31 sent repo rates soaring even though excess reserves were about $100 billion more than they are now) could get far worse as a result of the Fed's inability to properly address the reserves (cash) shortage plaguing banks.

There is another reason why year-end liquidity is likely to get far worse, and it has to do with bank year-end G-SIB surcharges imposed by regulators on US banks on the last day of the quarter and year. As we discussed two weeks ago, and as Pozsar explains, "running low on excess reserves is only one factor that determines how bad the vacuum
in market making can get around year-end turns. G-SIB scores are the other, as they determine what banks can do with whatever excess reserves they have at year-end: lend them through repos, spend them on Treasuries, or lend them through FX swaps, – in that specific order as repos are less punitive for banks’ G-SIB score than FX swaps."

So they see this problem of lack of liquidity about to get much worse.
I don't pretend to understand a lot of the stuff thats put out about the complex financial instruments used iin the arcane world of interbank finance outlined in the article above.
But the tiny bit i do understand looks ominous.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 10 2019, 06:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Today I have started selling down my stocks.
I am just too nervous in this market.
Yes, I know that sitting in cash is a very poor return, but investing in over priced assett classes will in my opinion give an even worse return.
I have posted a number of signs that I see as warning flags, and today I have the last one that tipped me over the edge.
The ADP report showed that only 67,000 jobs were created in November. This company does the payroll for huge numbers of American employees, and as such has a real time picture of employment from its stats.
Their full report can be found HERE

The BLS on the other hand, came out a week later with a figure of 266,000 jobs created.
Using their creative jobs adjustment algorithm, they magically came up with the massive figure.
And to top it off, they adjusted upwards the previous two months data by 13,000 and 28,000 respectively.
The BLS is a an organisation that does a statistical guess based on polling.
Something similar to the ABS here in OZ.
The full report can be found HERE

The disparity in reporting is significant enough to ask what the hell is going on.
These sort of disparities in estimates and real world figures were a feature of the GFC if I recall correctly.

Then there was the self serving appearance by Randall Quarles at the banking oversight hearings.

QUOTE
Randal Quarles, the Federal Reserve’s point man on banking supervision, appeared to side with JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, -0.47% CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday, saying some of the rules put in place in the aftermath of the financial crisis contributed to the recent turmoil seen in short-term lending markets.

“We have identified some areas where our existing supervision of the regulatory framework…may have created some incentives that were contributors” to the stress, Quarles told the House Financial Services Committee.

“They were probably not the decisive contributors, but they were contributors and I think we need to examine them,” he said under questioning from Rep. Patrick McHenry, a Republican from North Carolina, who is the ranking Republican on the House panel.

The postcrisis regulation was intended to make banks indifferent on whether they complied with short-term capital requirements with reserves they park at the central bank or with other short-term securities like Treasurys, Quarles said.

But in practice, the Fed’s rules seem to have had an unintended consequence of putting “a thumb on the scale for central bank reserves,” to meet the requirements, Quarles said.


They were probably not the decisive contributors. Well what the hell were the other contributors??
Looks like a carp, feels like a carp and smells fishy.
A BIS report pored cold water on Quarles explanation.

QUOTE
Yesterday, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) dropped a bombshell report that torpedoed the Federal Reserve’s official narrative on what has caused the overnight lending market (repo loan market) on Wall Street to seize up since September 17, leading to more than $3 trillion in cumulative loans from the New York Fed as lender of last resort.

The Federal Reserve has said the repo crisis was a result of corporations draining liquidity from the system to pay their quarterly tax payments alongside a large auction of U.S. Treasury securities settling and adding to the cash drain. That excuse was clearly bogus since the Fed has provided hundreds of billions of dollars weekly into the repo market since September 17, while stating that it plans to continue this activity into next year.

The BIS report dropped the bombshell that the “US repo markets currently rely heavily on four banks as marginal lenders.” Curiously, the BIS report was too timid to name the banks.

As Wall Street On Parade has regularly pointed out, there are more than 5,000 Federally-insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. but the bulk of the assets, derivatives and risk to U.S. financial stability are concentrated at just a handful of Wall Street’s “universal” banks — those making high risk trading gambles while also owning federally-insured, deposit taking banks. Ranked by assets, as of June 30, 2019, those are the bank holding companies of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs Group, and Morgan Stanley. Those six Wall Street banks hold $8.9 trillion of the $18.56 trillion in assets at the 5,213 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. That’s six banks holding 48 percent of the total assets of 5,213 banks.

The risks posed by a handful of banks in the derivatives market is even more concentrated. According to a quarterly report from the federal regulator of national banks, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), just five banks control 82 percent of the $280 trillion in notional (face amount) of derivatives at the 25 largest bank holding companies. Derivatives played a critical role in blowing up Wall Street banks in 2008 and resulted in the largest taxpayer and Federal Reserve bailout of any industry in U.S. history.

Despite that epic crisis, which produced the worst economic downturn in the United States since the Great Depression, Wall Street lobbyists have continued to stymie meaningful reform and have actually convinced the Trump administration to engage in weakening the inadequate regulations that Congress passed in 2010 under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation.


The bombshell section from my perpective is the following:

QUOTE
The problem with all of the narratives that have surfaced thus far on the repo loan crisis is that this market historically has turned over $1 trillion daily in loans in the U.S. Since the Fed is only providing approximately $100 billion a day, clearly the biggest banks and money market funds are making loans to those counterparties that they believe are good risks. This supports the thesis from Wall Street On Parade that the biggest banks are backing away from lending to those institutions that are deemed a bad risk or are heavily interconnected to an institution deemed to be a bad risk – even for an overnight loan since the institution could file for intraday bankruptcy.

This is precisely the scenario that led to credit seizing up and banks refusing to lend to one another in 2008.

Full report Here

And finally, theres [url="https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/november-heavy-duty-truck-orders-resume-collapse-down-39-weakest-2015"


The collapse in heavy duty trucking is getting tougher to blame on difficult YOY comps and is more and more looking like the symptom of a real manufacturing recession in the U.S.

Class 8 orders against collapsed in November, culminating a dismal year that some thought had seen a reprive with October's improved bookings. But new data from FreightWaves shows that the collapse has continued its trend, indicating that the sluggish economy is to blame for lackluster replacement demand.

Orders totaled 17,300 units for the month, which marks the slowest November since 2015 and a 39% collapse from November 2018. The slowdown in orders is prompting layoffs of hundreds of production workers by companies like Daimler Trucks North America, Volvo Trucks North America, Paccar Inc. and Navistar International Corp.

Other names in the Class 8 supply chain are also dealing with the negative effects. For instance, engine manufacturer Cummins Inc. is "laying off 2,000 white-collar employees globally in the first quarter of 2020".

This is highlighted by the fact that the largest trucking bankruptcy in US history has just been announced.

QUOTE
An Indiana trucking company with nearly 4,000 employees said Monday that it filed for bankruptcy and will shut down all operations, just days after two former officials were charged in an accounting fraud scheme.

The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by Indianapolis-based Celadon Group left more than 3,000 drivers jobless and, in many cases, stranded across the U.S. after their company gas cards were cancelled, according to local media reports. Another 500 administrative jobs are expected to be eliminated through the bankruptcy, the company said Monday.



Prior to the GFC, some of us used to quote the Baltic Dry Index as the canary in the coal mine. It has never recovered from those halcyon days.

As someone else once said, the ducks are starting to line up.
Sorry for the long post, I was doing my own peronal analysis as I went.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 10 2019, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

VALE Commodore.
Holden has killed off the commodore after 41 years.
had a good run, buts its time is up.
Never owned one meself,
Buts theres them that swears by em.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 10 2019, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Sometimes you need to be careful about what you wish for.


QUOTE
The path to Hollywood glory has long been filled with straight stars playing gay characters. It is a casting trend that should stop, according to British actor ­Richard E. Grant.

The star aligns himself with the growing numbers of campaigners who argue that characters who are black, gay, disabled or from any other minority should be played by actors from those backgrounds.

“The transgender movement and the #MeToo movement means how can you justify heterosexual actors playing gay characters?” he says. “We are in a historic moment.”
Grant, 62, has played gay roles in the past and claims that as a straight man he has “always” had concerns about denying gay actors roles.

But that has not stopped him taking on the part of a drag queen in the upcoming film adapta­tion of the West End musical Everybody’s Talking About Jamie. He also received his first Oscar nomination this year for playing Jack Hock, a gay man living with AIDS, in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

In an interview in London’s Sunday Times Magazine, Grant also argues that “if you want someone to play a disabled role, that should be a disabled actor”. There are many famous examples of actors playing disabled roles, from John Hurt in The ­Elephant Man to Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot.


The problem with this is, that by logical extension, the minorities would only be allowed to play minority roles. A gay actor would not be allowed to play a straight role. An actor with Azbergers would not be allowed to play a non azbergers role, gender fluid actors would not be allowed to play Binary gender roles etc.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 10 2019, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

FROM Politico

QUOTE
Amazon is going to court to overturn the Pentagon’s decision to award Microsoft a cloud computing contract worth up to $10 billion, claiming the selection process for the so-called JEDI program was injected with "unmistakable bias" and "political influence."

The Pentagon last month named Microsoft the winner in the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure program after President Donald Trump publicly questioned whether the competition unfairly favored Amazon.
Numerous aspects of the JEDI evaluation process contained clear deficiencies, errors, and unmistakable bias — and it’s important that these matters be examined and rectified," Amazon Web Services said in a statement today. Federal Times first reported the news.

Story Continued Below

Its protest, which is being filed in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, marks the latest hurdle for the contentious program, which has drawn a series of lawsuits, protests and a Department of Defense inspector general investigation.

Oracle, which was previously cut from the competition, also filed an appeal today with the U.S. Court of Appeals after a judge previously ruled against its allegations that the winner-takes-all contract unfairly limited competition. Oracle is also seeking an injunction to stop Microsoft from beginning work on the program while the case is tried.

Amazon says it believes it "is uniquely experienced and qualified to provide the critical technology the U.S. military needs, and remains committed to supporting the DoD’s modernization efforts.


I find it ironic that any of the companies mentioned dare to mention unfairness, bias, lack of competition etc.
The behemoths not only think they should run the world, now they are actively trying to do so.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 7 2019, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

With only 3 weeks till the Boxing day test, the MVG pitch is under some serious examination after the shield game was called off by umpires due to a substandard pitch,
Last year it got a c- rating for the test, would be bit of a tragedy if the MCG were ta=ken off the acceptable grounds list.
To the a$$ho;le who came up with the idea of drop in pitches, I hope you are satisfied.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

At the risk of being a merchant of doom, I can't help but see so many parralells between the build up to the GFC and current conditions.


[quote]James Gorman is the Chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley. He also sits on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed), one of Morgan Stanley’s regulators.

The New York Fed is one of 12 regional Federal Reserve banks – but the only one willing to turn on a multi-trillion dollar money funnel to Wall Street’s mega banks when they need a secret bailout. Since September 17 of this year, the New York Fed has pumped upwards of $3 trillion in revolving loans to trading houses on Wall Street, without naming which firms are getting the money and why they’re getting it. From December 2007 to the middle of 2010, the New York Fed turned on its money funnel to Wall Street to the tune of $29 trillion – a fact it battled in court for years to keep secret.

Today, the New York Fed will only say that it’s making these new loans, which tally up to hundreds of billions of dollars each week, to some of its 24 “primary dealers.” For the most part, those “primary dealers” are the high-risk trading units of big commercial banks in the U.S. and abroad. (See list below.)

One of the primary dealers that is eligible to be taking these multi-billion dollar loans from the New York Fed is Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC. Morgan Stanley describes that unit as follows: “Its businesses include securities underwriting and distribution; financial advisory services, including advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, real estate and project finance; sales, trading, financing and market-making activities in equity and fixed income securities and related products, and other instruments including foreign exchange and commodities futures; and prime brokerage services.”

At 11:36 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day, when households across America were either watching the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade on TV or hustling in the kitchen, Bloomberg News dropped the bombshell report that foreign currency traders at Morgan Stanley had hidden a trading loss of upwards of $140 million. Two of the traders involved in the losses were based in London, according to the Bloomberg report.

There are a number of curious and noteworthy aspects to this report. First, only Bloomberg News was privy to this information. Morgan Stanley had not informed its shareholders via any public statement nor had it informed the Securities and Exchange Commission via a public filing. Thus it is also highly likely that it had not informed the New York Fed, another of its regulators, despite the fact that its CEO, James Gorman, sits on the Board of the New York Fed. The Bloomberg article suggests that the firm itself is just now investigating what actually happened, meaning that an outside news agency attempting to place a realistic figure on the amount of the losses is suspect at best.

In 2012, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, called news reports of its derivative trading losses in London “a tempest in a teapot.” Those hidden trading losses turned out to be over $6.2 billion.
Morgan Stanley, however, can top JPMorgan’s historic trading loss. During the financial crisis, one of Morgan Stanley’s traders, Howie Hubler, lost $9 billion betting on subprime debt. But Morgan Stanley survived the financial crisis because the New York Fed secretly pumped more than $2 trillion into Morgan Stanley from 2007 to the middle of 2010 according to a Fed audit performed by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and released to the public in July 2011. The audit occurred as the result of an amendment attached to the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 by Senator Bernie Sanders and others.

At the outset of the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley was predominantly an investment bank and a large retail brokerage firm which was not eligible to borrow from the Fed’s Discount Window, which was restricted to deposit-taking banks. In order to funnel trillions of dollars to the trading houses on Wall Street, the New York Fed created an alphabet soup of loan programs. One of those programs was called PDCF (Primary Dealer Credit Facility). For the first time in history, under that program, the New York Fed funneled $8.9 trillion to the trading houses on Wall Street, in many cases taking the unprecedented action of accepting stocks and junk bonds as collateral – at a time when both of those markets were in freefall.

In 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs became bank holding companies, subject to regulation by the New York Fed and with access to its Discount Window./quote]

I am not sure how many people know that the US FED is not a statury government body, but is in fact a private firm, outside of the control and management of the Government.
If anyone needed further proof that the US monetary system is being used and abused by large financial firms, surely this is it.

Full article HERE

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 08:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041


Wasnt sure whether to post this in Climate Change or Humour.


FromMr Armstrong

QUOTE
LETTER FROM A CONSTITUENT ABOUT HOW HE ADVISED HIS TEENAGE DAUGHTER ON ‘CLIMATE CHANGE’:

After our daughter of fifteen years of age was moved to tears by the speech of Greta Thunberg at the UN the other day, she became angry with our generation “who had been doing nothing for thirty years.”

So, we decided to help her prevent what the girl on TV announced of “massive eradication and the disappearance of entire ecosystems.”

We are now committed to give our daughter a future again, by doing our part to help cool the planet four degrees.

From now on she will go to school on a bicycle, because driving her by car costs fuel, and fuel puts emissions into the atmosphere. Of course it will be winter soon and then she will want to go by bus, but cycling through the freezing builds resilience.

Of course, she is now asking for an electric bicycle, but we have shown her the devastation caused to the areas of the planet as a result of mining for the extraction of Lithium and other minerals used to make batteries for electric bicycles, so she will be pedaling, or walking.

Which will not harm her, or the planet. We used to cycle and walk to school too.

Since the girl on TV demanded “we need to get rid of our dependency on fossil fuels” and our daughter agreed with her, we have disconnected the heat vent in her room. The temperature is now dropping to twelve degrees in the evening, and will drop below freezing in the winter, we have promised to buy her an extra sweater, hat, tights, gloves and a blanket.

For the same reason we have decided that from now on she only takes a cold shower. She will wash her clothes by hand, with a wooden washboard, because the washing machine is simply a power consumer and since the dryer uses natural gas, she will hang her clothes on the clothes line to dry, just like my parents and grandparents used to do.

Speaking of clothes, the ones that she currently has are all synthetic, so made from petroleum. Therefore on Monday, we will bring all her designer clothing to the secondhand shop.

We have found an eco store where the only clothing they sell is made from undyed and unbleached linen and jute. Also can’t have clothes made on wool, because the emissions from farting sheep are supposedly causing bad weather.

It shouldn’t matter that it looks good on her, or that she is going to be laughed at, dressing in colorless, bland clothes and without a wireless bra, but that is the price she has to pay for the benefit of The Climate.

Cotton is out of the question, as it comes from distant lands and pesticides are used for it. Very bad for the environment.
We just saw on her Instagram that she’s pretty angry with us. This was not our intention.

From now on, at 7 p.m. We will turn off the WiFi and we will only switch it on again the next day after dinner for two hours. In this way we will save on electricity, so she is not bothered by electro-stress and will be totally isolated from the outside world. This way, she can concentrate solely on her homework. At eleven o’clock in the evening we will pull the breaker to shut the power off to her room, so she knows that dark is really dark. That will save a lot of CO2.

She will no longer be participating in winter sports to ski lodges and resorts, nor will she be going on anymore vacations with us, because our vacation destinations are practically inaccessible by bicycle.

Since our daughter fully agrees with the girl on TV that the CO2 emissions and footprints of her great-grandparents are to blame for ‘killing our planet’, what all this simply means, is that she also has to live like her great-grandparents and they never had a holiday, a car or even a bicycle.

We haven’t talked about the carbon footprint of food yet.

Zero CO2 footprint means no meat, no fish and no poultry, but also no meat substitutes that are based on soy (after all, that grows in farmers fields, that use machinery to harvest the beans, trucks to transport to the processing plants, where more energy is used, then trucked to the packaging/canning plants, and trucked once again to the stores) and also no imported food, because that has a negative ecological effect. And absolutely no chocolate from Africa, no coffee from South America and no tea from Asia.

Only homegrown potatoes, vegetables and fruit that have been grown in local cold soil, because greenhouses run on boilers, piped in CO2 and artificial light. Apparently, these things are also bad for The Climate. We will teach her how to grow her own food.

Bread is still possible, but butter, milk, cheese and yogurt, cottage cheese and cream come from cows and they emit CO2. No more margarine and no oils will be used for the frying pan, because that fat is palm oil from plantations in Borneo where rain forests first grew.

No ice cream in the summer. No soft drinks and no energy drinks, as the bubbles are CO2.

We will also ban all plastic, because it comes from chemical factories. Everything made of steel and aluminum must also be removed. Have you ever seen the amount of energy a blast furnace consumes or an aluminum smelter? All bad for the climate!

We will replace her memory foam pillow top mattress, with a jute bag filled with straw, with a horse hair pillow.

And finally, she will no longer be using makeup, soap, shampoo, cream, lotion, conditioner, toothpaste and medication. Facewashers will all be linen, that she can wash by hand, with her wooden washboard, just like her female ancestors did before climate change made her angry at us for destroying her future.

In this way we will help her to do her part to prevent mass extinction, water levels rising and the disappearance of entire ecosystems.

If she truly believes she wants to walk the talk of the girl on TV, she will gladly accept and happily embrace her new way of life.


mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 08:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Given that what happens in the states often follows on here some time later, it might be worth the while to look at the short term lenders such as afterpay etc in OZ,
Worth shorting???

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 07:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

For those with memories long enough to remember what triggered the GFC 10 years ago, disturbing news on the sub prime market will give cause for angst.
The fact that we have a higher delinquency rate now than during the GFC is scary. And its only going to get worse.

QUOTE
OK, we’ve got a situation in subprime consumer loans. The delinquency rate on credit-card loan balances at the nearly 5,000 smaller commercial banks in the United States – this means all banks except the largest 100 – is blowing out, according to Federal Reserve data. In the third quarter, the delinquency rate at these banks rose to 6.25%. That’s higher even than during the peak of the Financial Crisis.

Back in 2016, the credit-card delinquency rate at these banks was in the 3% range. It has more than doubled in two years.

Credit card balances are considered delinquent when they’re 30 days or more past due. This delinquency rate means that out of the banks total credit card balances, 6.25% are 30 days or more past due. This is a disturbingly large rate.

But delinquencies are a flow. Balances are removed from the delinquency basket either when the customer cures the delinquency, such as catching up with past-due payments, or when the bank “charges off” the delinquent balance against its loan loss reserves. But as these delinquent balances were taken out of the delinquency basket, even more new delinquencies fell into the basket, and the delinquency rate rose.
What’s Behind the Subprime Consumer Loan Implosion?
by Wolf Richter • Nov 28, 2019 • 110 Comments
These are the good times, but why are subprime credit cards, auto loans, and short-term installment loans blowing out?
This is the transcript from my podcast last Sunday, THE WOLF STREET REPORT:
OK, we’ve got a situation in subprime consumer loans. The delinquency rate on credit-card loan balances at the nearly 5,000 smaller commercial banks in the United States – this means all banks except the largest 100 – is blowing out, according to Federal Reserve data. In the third quarter, the delinquency rate at these banks rose to 6.25%. That’s higher even than during the peak of the Financial Crisis.

Back in 2016, the credit-card delinquency rate at these banks was in the 3% range. It has more than doubled in two years.

Credit card balances are considered delinquent when they’re 30 days or more past due. This delinquency rate means that out of the banks total credit card balances, 6.25% are 30 days or more past due. This is a disturbingly large rate.

But delinquencies are a flow. Balances are removed from the delinquency basket either when the customer cures the delinquency, such as catching up with past-due payments, or when the bank “charges off” the delinquent balance against its loan loss reserves. But as these delinquent balances were taken out of the delinquency basket, even more new delinquencies fell into the basket, and the delinquency rate rose.

Subprime auto loans have also been blowing out. In the third quarter, the serious delinquency rate of the $1.3 trillion in auto loans has risen to 4.71%, the highest since the worst months of the Financial Crisis, when the auto industry collapsed, and when the US was facing the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression. In the third quarter, about 21% of all subprime auto loans were seriously delinquent – meaning 90 days past due.

Then we got another glimpse of this upheaval in subprime with some of the specialized lenders that cater to them.

For example, World Acceptance Corp., which does small short-term consumer installment loans, and some larger medium-term loans to people who need money desperately and have subprime credit ratings. Like most specialized subprime lenders, World Acceptance charges blistering interest rates, but then it also has large default rates.

It reported disappointing results now two quarters in a row, and its shares have plunged 45% over the past four months. So what’s going on here?

Back in 2009, people were defaulting on their auto loans and credit cards and their installment loans because over 10 million people had lost their jobs. This is not the case today. Back then, new unemployment claims – a sign of layoffs – spiked to astronomical levels. These days, they’ve been hovering near historic lows. So today, these people are working, and they’re falling behind on their debt service.

Subprime doesn’t mean poor or uneducated. Subprime means having a credit score below 620.


I would reccomend folks read the full article HERE

It contains some cogent details about the credit card problems in particular, but is too big to paste in full.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Would have to be the ugliest thing on earth.

And just to keep it on an even keel,
From Zero hedge
QUOTE
A few things we think are worth considering when it comes to TSLA - out of the 9 products they’ve announced and sell, they only actively make 3 of them (and demand for those three products appear to have peaked) while the other 6 products they sell are vaporware, i.e., products that do not exist – yes, you heard that right:

TSLA’s current cars in production include:
Model 3 (ASPs and units are in severe decline, and sales were down -49% y/y in Oct. in its biggest market, the USA)
Model X (sales have collapsed in both the US and globally)
Model S (same as Model X)


Meanwhile, here are TSLA’s current cars/products not in production:

Roadster (unveil was 2yrs ago)
Semi (unveil was 2yrs ago)
Model Y (TSLA refuses to mention how many pre-orders they’ve received here)
Cybertruck ($100 fully-refundable deposits on a car that will likely cost $60K, or 0.167%, is the equivalent of someone putting $1.67 toward an $1,000 i-Phone & apple calling it an order)
ATV
FSD (to be FSD, TSLA would have had to achieve level 5 autonomy… they’re at level 2)
So… TSLA has more vaporware products (i.e., stuff that doesn’t exist) than real products for sale; and, it’s real products are seeing large negative y/y growth currently.
Oh… and what about E. Musk’s promise that:

TSLA would have flying cars (he made this claim 322 days ago),
TSLA would create break pads that never need to be replaced (he made this claim 336 days ago),
TSLA would have a base on Mars in 2028 (he made this claim 432 days ago),
TSLA would have a one hour body shop (this claim happened 437 days ago),
he would fix the water in all Flint houses above FDA levels (he made this claim 504 days ago),
there would be no more mass layoffs (533 days, and multiple layoffs, ago), etc.?
The point is… each claim he makes is picked up by every media site and taken as “gospel”; so, maybe the media should go to this website (link) and start holding him to some of these claims?


Agh Vapourware, something from my early IT days.
The sales and marketing geniuses would sell vapourware to clients and leave us poor software engineers to try and make it work.

The article has a couple of graphs on teslas sales which look a little depressing, but I am not allowed to paste dynamic links.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Hmmm, Silver down 0.2% overnight.
The AUD went up versus the USD by 1% to make the fall even bigger in Oz terms.
But SVL goes up 4% on admittedly small volume.
Not sure if its just a breather or what.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 09:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Another coloured person being hailed as the next Andrew Flintoff (or Beefy Bothsm, or Keith Miller...).

fromABC NEWS'

I
QUOTE
f you were building a prototype for the perfect cricketer, it would be hard to go past emerging Australian all-rounder Cameron Green.

He can bat in the top six, bowl at more than 140 kilometres per hour and has had to quickly become used to being sledged by his opponents, after former Australian fast bowler Ryan Harris recently said he was Australia's answer to former England all-rounder Andrew Flintoff.

"Anything that gets published, you have got to cop a bit of shit once you get onto the field," Green joked.


This Green is not to be confused with the other Green

QUOTE
Uncapped Aussie spinner Chris Green signs longest contract in BBL history
He's been flying around the world as a T20 specialist without the reward of an international debut for Australia.

But a lack of higher honours didn't dissuade the Sydney Thunder, who have just signed Chris Green to the longest deal in Big Bash League history.

The 26-year-old off-spinner put pen to paper on a six-year contract with the franchise.


Bring Back Cameron White, Bill Brown, Graham Black, Ian Redpath, Geoff Gray, and we could have a really colourful team.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Aggh, climate change! The existential crisis of our time!

From Daily Wire

The head democrat Nancy Pelosi is taking 13 democrats with her to the Madrid climate change conference.
[quote]“We must face the existential threat of our time: the climate crisis,” House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said in January in her opening address to Congress. “The entire Congress must work to put an end to the inaction and denial of science that threaten the planet and the future.”

That’s right. Pelosi was set to fly out on Sunday with a 13 other Democrats on a smoke-spewing jet or three, burning that evil fossil fuel, heading 3,781 miles across the Atlantic to the United Nations COP25 climate change conference in Madrid./quote]
why do they need a total of 14 people attending??
Whats wrong with teleconferencing?

At least Greta eschewed those filthy Co2 spitting first class seats for a second class boat ride.

Mick


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yea, Pretty ordinary.
Listening to Ricky Ponting makes me think the other airheads (especially that dork Brayshaw), would be better off if they just shut up.
He gave some very cogent reasons why the plan seemed to be the wrong one to the batsmen at that time.
They only got the first wicket out of luck that the mishit went to a fieldsman.
The send wicket was good bowling from Gary.
It was interesting listening to Ponting explain why he thought that Hazlewood bowls too short. 8 balls in 111 that would have hit the stumps is not good.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

From ABC NEWS
QUOTE
After more than four decades of dominance, free market capitalism is facing a challenge.

Its rival, the blandly named modern monetary theory (MMT), has entered the ring promising to return economic planning to a less ideological footing.

It's also keen to strike a blow against the "surplus fetish" that many economists now blame for declining public services and growing inequality.

The rise of MMT has received little attention in Australia, but it's increasingly gaining exposure in the United States ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

In its corner are Australian-based economist Bill Mitchell and Stephanie Kelton, the senior economic advisor to Democratic contender Bernie Sanders.

But free market capitalism is unlikely to go down without a fight; former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers has dismissed MMT as "voodoo economics".

Listen to the episode

RN's Future Tense takes a look at Modern Monetary Theory, and whether it can really challenge free-market capitalism.
Here's how the contenders shape up.

The title-holder
Whether we like to acknowledge it or not, free market capitalism — often disparagingly referred to as "Neoliberalism" — dominates current thinking on both the centre-right of politics and the centre-left.

Once considered radical, it was legitimised in the late 1970s and early 1980s by political heavyweights Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Reagan gave it an emblematic war cry: "Government is not the solution to our problem," he famously intoned, "government IS the problem".

And Thatcher set fast its legitimacy with her uncompromising declaration: "There is no alternative!"


Margaret thatcher is also credited with the statement about Socialism " the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples money.".

The real issue is that no government has ever run a free market capitalist economy.
Even the home of free market capitalism ,mighty US has been highly interventionist.
Under pure free market capiltalism, orgs like the FED have intervened in markets to save banks that should have been let die.
They have minimum wages rather than letting market forces dictate.
They set up rules and regs that intervene in their market for political reasons rather than economic ones.
Finally, which economies have a surplus fettish???
There are no major economies other than the Russians running a surplus.
Every other major player is running a low interest deficit policy.
And now we see more countries opting for the QE route.
You only need to look at the economic consequences of these polcies.
As for blaming capitalism for the decline in public service, what proof is there of this view?
We have more public servants paid at a greater proportion of GDP than ever before.
Mick



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Gramma is fuh nerds.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 1 2019, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Aussies off the boil. A missed stumping, missed runout, dropped caught and bowled, two catches dropping just short of 1st slip.
A bit shoddy, except for the two wickets in two balls.
Yasir gets his well deserved century.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2019, 07:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

One of those where ya buy 10,000 and put it in the bottom drawer for a few years/
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2019, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

duplicate post
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2019, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Agree that the pitches here are benign, but I also think the Kookaburra ball makes a big difference.
Australian batters shine in these benign conditions, but you would think other world class batsmen from other countries should also shine.
The same poms who drove Warner mad in England were done over 3 -1 .
They could not get any scores above 400. Australia managed three above 400.
In the last test Pakistan couldn't reach the OZ total in two innings.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the way things are going, this test will have OZ declaring twice for a few wickets and knocking pakistan over twice.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 04:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I guess this would be classed as an ambit claim.
From ABC NEWS
QUOTE
Indigenous leaders have filed an unprecedented compensation claim against the West Australian Government that could become one of the world's biggest legal payouts.

The Noongar People are pursuing more than $290 billion from the WA Government
The compensation is for "spiritual damage" caused by loss of traditional land
The group was previously granted native title over an area almost as big as Victoria
The Noongar people of south-west WA are pursuing more than $290 billion for "spiritual damage" caused by loss of their traditional land.

The figure would be almost a quarter of Australia's gross domestic product of $1.4 trillion and more than West Australia's gross state product of $259 billion.

If the action is successful, it would put it in the range of a landmark $US206 billion ($304 billion) payout made by the tobacco industry to governments across the United States in 1998.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041


Once again, we may have been a little premature about the demise of the US.

From Financial Times

QUOTE
The pace of the US economy’s expansion has picked up in the back half of 2019, with data showing gross domestic product rose in the third quarter by more than initially forecast.

The economy expanded at a 2.1 per cent annualised rate in the three months ended September 30, according to the second estimate of GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is up from an initial estimate of 1.9 per cent and an increase from the 2 per cent pace in the second quarter.

The new estimate, as well as data showing a bigger-than-expected rebound in durable goods orders in October, may help allay concerns about the health of the US economy, particularly manufacturing and business investment, which continues to be tested by the impact of Donald Trump’s trade war on China.

The upbeat data helped support US stocks, with the S&P 500 up 0.2 per cent on Wednesday morning from the previous session’s record closing high. The US dollar index rose by the same margin.

“The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from [personal consumption expenditure], federal government spending, residential investment, private inventory investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment,” the BEA said on Wednesday.

Data also showed orders for long-lasting manufactured goods rebounded in October from their steepest drop since May. Durable goods orders rose 0.6 per cent last month, easily topping Wall Street forecasts for a 0.8 per cent drop, and marking a solid recovery from the downwardly revised 1.4 per cent fall (previously minus 1.2 per cent) in September.

New orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a proxy for business investment, surged 1.2 per cent, from an upwardly revised 0.5 per cent drop in September. Economists pencilled in an October decline of 0.3 per cent.

“The rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by a surge in orders for underlying capital goods, suggesting that business equipment investment is holding up better than anticipated,” Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics said.

“Overall, we’re still expecting economic growth to slow further in the near-term, but that slowdown appears to be more modest than we had initially expected,” he added.

Price growth remained soft at the start of the fourth quarter even after the economy performed better than forecast, supporting the case for the US central bank to keep interest rates low.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which Federal Reserve officials use as their preferred inflation gauge and excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 1.6 per cent year-over-year in October, according to the commerce department. That was down from the 1.7 per cent growth seen in the prior month.

The inflation reading “underlines that interest rates are unlikely to be raised again for the foreseeable future”, according to Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics.

“If economic growth slows as much as we expect it to, corporate pricing power is going to weaken, and core inflation is likely to again begin to decelerate,” Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at MFR, said.

Household spending in October grew 0.3 per cent month-to-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching the consensus estimate in a Thomson Reuters poll.


Just when ya think its breathed its last, it has a bit of a rally.
With the DOW at all time high. things can't be all that bad.
Especially when you look at the Chinese stock market. Down 30% from its 2015 high.
And if you were investing from outside China, the currency depreciation would add to the losses.
The markets seem to suggest that so far, the US is winning the trade war.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yikes, after being sent in by Queensland skipper, Tassy 3 wickets down for four runs.
Steketee 3 for 2.
The latest selector G Bailey out for 2.
Must be a bit of a green top in Hobart.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 09:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

perhaps if these directors and executives had spent less time on virtue signalling to the latest social issues, and a little more time monitoring their business processes, they would be a little less likely to find themselves in these situations.
And as usual, it will be shareholders who pay the price for the activities of these inflated egos.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Missed by that much.
Might have to sell 1/8th of the holdings and take part in rights issue.
Not sure why it is suddenly back in favour, maybe we have our own version of the Plunge Protection team??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 28 2019, 04:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yeah, luckily NTU is performing a little better.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 28 2019, 02:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

As with TLG, It may end up being just as easy to buy on market at rightsissue price.
Have put an order in at that price just in case.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 26 2019, 05:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Am I the only person who thinks the Castle lady in charge of Rugby Australia is really Dawn French?
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 25 2019, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

i have a standard signature on all my emails.
“My preferred pro. noun is Your most esteemed excellency”.
Unfortunately, everyone ignores it.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

from ABC NEWS
QUOTE
The curtain call for a new play about the fabled Packer dynasty is instructive.

Lined up on stage are six big, white men who between them play more than a dozen characters in a story spanning 50 years of a media dynasty that owned newspapers, magazines and Channel Nine.

From Sir Frank to Kerry to James, the Packers have for three generations been at the apex of power in Sydney, and therefore Australia.

Alongside those six men in the evocatively-titled Packer and Sons is a young boy who remains silent throughout the play, absorbing how the grown-ups interact.


Typical Sydney-centric arrogance.
If its not in Sydney, and more particularly in Ultimo., it just doesn't cut.it.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 07:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The no ball non call was pretty ordinary.
Though according to the charming English lady commentator, the noball rules for this series are slightly different f=than the ICC rules in terms of grounding.
The umpires are reluctant to call noball unless its obvious.
I think the main reason is because although an out decision can be reviewed for a noball and overturned, it does not work the other way.
If an umpire calls a marginal noball and the batsmen gets away with a false shot that would normally be out, there is no third umpire adjudication of the noball.
If replays suggest that it was a false no ball call, there is no calling the player back.
The fielding side can not challenge a noball call to the third umpire either.
Makes up for the nick that wasn't given and not reviewed by OZ. Both out by the barest of margins.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Doesn't really matter now. TLG price is down to the issue price, so no great advantage in applying for more shares when you can buy on the market for same price.
It may even go lower if the general market feeling is negative.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I have many issues with these constant new records being broken .
1. The BOM has changed the RAW original datasets in both ACORN 1 and ACORN 2.
These changes have made the earlier 1900's cooler, and the later periods warmer. They have never offered any explanations for this.

2. In the olden days, atmospheric data was sampled every half hour. The recording people may have missed the highest or lowest absolute temp for a 24 hour period .
The newer automatic gauges sample the atmosphere constantly.
So obviously, the newer systems will record the absolute highest temp and absolute lowest temp for a 24 hour period.

3. the electronic equipment can measure to the 100th of a degree. Older style manual readings had an accuracy of half a degree at best.

4.The BOM keep changing the reference sites. By a process they call homoginisation, temperatures in Victoria are used to adjust temperatures in Tasmania. Cape Bruny in Southern Tasmania was found to be statistically wrong, and was adjusted upwards by half a degree using Ballarat, 800 ks away in Victoria.

I am not a denier of climate change, or even a denier that man has contributed to it.

The question is how much, and what can you realistically do about it. Is the cure worse than the disease?

My biggest problem is the responses to it. Political responses to a science based climatic algorithm was always fraught with danger.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2019, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I looked at the prospectus on the website that details how first in best dressed etc and that by using BPAY, you don't have to send in the forms.
However, each individual has to have their own EFT code to participate.
I presume that data will come out via snail mail or maybe email for those of us who elected to get their communications via email.
So those who get the EFT code first, will naturally be the first come first served dudes who get the lollies.
Where is the ASX, ASIC, the Fed Police, anybody who thinks that "all shareholders are to be treated equally" really means that.
The prospectus says that management reserve the right to oversubscribe.
Why the hell not, get lots money in while ya can.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2019, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And on that note., West Indian player Nicholas Pooran has been banned for four matches by the ICC for Ball Tampering..
He was seen on the TV running hos thumb nail down the seam of the ball.
Something that used to done all the time in the old days.
Will the Barmy army give it to him when the WI team next visit mother England?
Will the English press demand that he always be called a cheat??
Seems there is different rules for OZ indiscretions.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 07:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I will get some red caps made up with MACGA on them.
Make Australian Cricket great again.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 05:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Starks problem is that his first name is ok, but its his surname. thats the problem
Its not marsh.
I see now that the Sheffield Shield and the 50 over one day cup are now called the Marsh Shield and the Marsh cup respectively.
Powerful people those Marshes.
If Cummins Hazelwood and Stark don't make up the opening attack, there is something very wrong with the mentality of the selection panel.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The Silver Lake reported about in the Article you quoted is not the SLR we all know and love.
The article is about a US private equity firm called Silver Lake. I am not aware of any connection between SLR and the US company Silver Lake Equity partners.

From oberver

QUOTE
TEG, the Australian live entertainment giant and Ticketek owner, has been acquired by Silver Lake, a U.S.-based private equity company which specialises in technology investing.

TEG’s management team, led by its Sydney-based CEO Geoff Jones, will continue to run the business and keep equity in the new ownership structure.


Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The big unanswered question is how much money is going to come srom the public in terms of tax breaks, grants etc.
Been reading about the debacle that was carnegie wave technology.
Governments are the absolute worst at picking winners.
Townsville being in Queensland, I worry a bit.
It was the state government that put money into an app top allow people on cruise ships to share their photos.
Just what we needed.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

EB, you are only a Demigod.
Need twenty more successful trades to reach the stock god pinacle.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Hmm, serious enough to issue ba share placement 20% below the last traded price to those oft quoted "sophisticated investors".
At least the existing less sophisticated shareholders will get a chance to participate in a share purchase plan
Market not that happy, down over 15% when trading again.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 08:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

J, you can read all about it HERE at Skeptics

It seems that the problem was not the burning of Hydrogen, but rather the fact that Horvath claimed to be using fusion to create the hydrogen from water. Thats was the real downfall.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 07:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Wasn't it the Germans who developed the Hindenburg??
Just saying.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Ha thats cool, An American Auto company opening an electric vehicle plant in Germany, versus a German Auto Company opening an electric vehicle plant in America!
Nothing like a little irony to keep the world turning.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 01:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

From The Australian

QUOTE
A shock loss of 19,000 jobs in October has lifted the unemployment rate to 5.3 per cent, a disappointing result which will likely amplify calls for the government to provide further fiscal stimulus.

Economists had expected the key jobless measure to hold at 5.2 per cent and for 15,000 jobs to be added, according to Bloomberg consensus forecasts. In September the economy added a downwardly revised 12,500 jobs.

The unemployment rate might have been higher had the participation rate not ticked lower to 66 per cent, from 66.1 per cent.

Following the data the Aussie dollar dipped US0.4 cents to US68.08 cents and stocks swung from losses to firm gains as traders moved quickly to price in a higher chance of monetary easing. The market-implied chance of a Reserve Bank rate cut as soon as next month jumped to 26 per cent from 14 per cent, while the probability of a February cut climbed to 56 per cent from 44 per cent, on Bloomberg numbers.


So, despite the excruciatingly slow wage rises, low inflation, Tax cuts and record low interest rates, employment falls.

Guess it puts another rate cut from RBA in the near certainty bracket.

The only growth is in Government jobs.

Wonder how long it will be before someone in government comes up with the idea that they should push for a much higher minimum wage, and hope like hell there is a flow effect up the chain.

Glad I am retired.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

TLS up 1.5% today.
Nothing in announcements, why would they suddenly get back in favour???
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Its a good bathroom song because you can pretend to sing in Italian, and unless someone who actually speaks Italian is within earshot, no one is the wiser.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I see a pretty chart.
My charting expertise is close to non existent.
I deal in fundamentals.
Fundamentally, I could be wrong.
As for Quando Quando, I reckon it was orignally by Al martino, though Michael Buble had a good go..
And I thinlk you mean Englebert Humperdinck rather than the Jones boy.

Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 09:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And further on the bushfires:
From The Australian

QUOTE
NSW police believe a staggering 12 bushfires may have been deliberately lit by arsonists during Tuesday’s “catastrophic” fire conditions.

Acting Assistant Commissioner Stuart Smith said arson wasn’t a “five-minute job” and any suspected firebugs were likely to have methodically planned out their crime.

Commissioner Smith also evoked Victoria’s devastating Black Saturday bushfires when quizzed about the challenges faced by officers trying to catch an arsonist.

“We learnt a lot from the Black Saturday bushfires,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

“It’s methodical, tedious work but obviously there are several fires from yesterday that we are still looking at to determine if there is any suspicious behaviour.”

He pledged to “put people before a court” if officers determined arson was a factor behind any of Tuesday’s bushfires
.


If they get caught, they well just say it was an accidental dropped butt.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 11:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yep, won't argue with that.
Still has not been the dramatic falls I expected.
My bids remain unfulfilled.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 11:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The greens and others screaming that climate change is the cause of fires in OZ must be having an effect on the police.

From ABC NEWS


QUOTE
Queensland police say a discarded cigarette likely sparked the bushfire which destroyed 11 homes and the historic Binna Burra Lodge in the Gold Coast hinterland in September.

Key points
Police reveal the Binna Burra fire, that destroyed the historic Lodge and 11 houses, was caused by a discarded cigarette
Police will not lay charges against the two teenagers, aged 17 and 19
Fines apply in Queensland for people caught tossing cigarette butts
Officers said two local teenagers — aged 17 and 19 — had been questioned about the incident and detectives had determined the fire was an accident.

"A prosecution will not be commenced against those persons ... they are afforded privacy just like anyone else in their position," a QPS spokesperson said.


I just don't get it. Whatever happened to strict liability in Law?
Whatever happened to the idea that you are responsible for the outcome of your actions ??
A discarded cigarette butt. An accident?
Jeez I give up.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Opinion is the new black.
It has replaced reporting as the standard out put of reporters.
I thought the article was a puff pice to fill space.
Cameron Bancroft the only batsmen to have managed to stay around.
Currently now top score with 20.
Everyone seems to have pencilled in Carey as a future test captain.
Can't say I have seen anything so far tht fills me with confidence.
9/69. Lucky its only our second 11.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Well, the bat off for places in the OZ test team going really well.
Australia A 7 /50 after Pakistan amassed 428
The highest score by the auditioners was marcus harris with 16,
Don't think these Pakistani boys are going to be a pushover.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yep, it took them half an hour to fix it.
Don't think too many were fooled.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

PLS in trading halt.
Capital raising anyone??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Kitco has silver at 23.37 on the open , an increase of 36% of Fridays close.
Gotta be someones fat fingers on a single trade.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yea, its always easy to declare something going to happen over the next thirty years.

Arden doesn't have to do much of the hard work in actually implementing it.

according to ABC NEWS

QUOTE
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern believes the country is placing itself on the right side of history in the battle against climate change as Members of Parliament adopt a measure to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.

Thursday's framework enshrines in law the new 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target and makes it a legally binding objective to keep global warming below a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius forecast by the United Nations.

"Today, we have made a choice that I am proud of," Ms Ardern told Parliament.

"I hope it means the next generation will see that we were on the right side of history.

"New Zealand will not be a slow follower.


The bill accords different treatment to methane emissions from animals versus other greenhouse gases, but still targets a cut of 10 per cent in biological methane by 2030, and up to 47 per cent by 2050.


Last time I checked, methane contains carbon, and is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, so don't see how they are going to be carbon neutral.
Of course methane only has a life in the atmosphere of around 8 years before it breaks down.
And what does it break down into??
Yep, CO2 and H2O.

So for all the preening about being carbon neutral, they will still end up producing heaps of Co2.

We are constantly told to follow the science, but only when it suits the argument.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

From ABC news
QUOTE
A coroner has recommended pill testing be conducted in NSW, the decriminalisation of personal drug use and the scrapping of sniffer dogs at music festivals.

An inquest investigated the drug-related deaths of six young people, aged 18 to 23, at NSW music festivals over two summers.

Delivering her findings on Friday, deputy state coroner Harriet Grahame said there was "compelling" evidence to support pill testing, which could "prompt behavioural change".

"Drug checking is simply an evidence-based harm reduction strategy that should be trialled as soon as possible in NSW," she said.

Ms Grahame said high-visibility and punitive policing operations at festivals had "inherent dangers and few if any benefits" and drug detection dogs should be scrapped.

She said the use of strip searches should be limited to circumstances where there is a "reasonable suspicion".


So, now governments have to pay for more stupidity by recreational drug users.

Surely money would be better spent on telling the idiots who take recreational drugs that there are serious consequences.

But now, we have to protect the snowflakes from their own stupidity.

I have seen first hand the damage that these so called recreational drugs cause.

Its not pretty, and has long lasting consequences.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

C'mon Alonso, stop being modest.
It was a brilliant piece of timing.
Will you go back in for another shot when it looks like it has dumped enough??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Not sure what you are telling me there.
The XGD is down 3.7%.
I had expected much higher falls, especially given the sorts of increases on the way up.

RMS down 7$% is the biggest fall in my watchlist.
Looking for RMS and SLR to be both at sub $1.00.

Especially as both have seen increases in shorts last few weeks.


Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Another big fall in gold and silver last night after announcements about a trade deal "soon"/
Still only one of my low ball bids partially filled.
Why are the gold stocks not going down further??

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 7 2019, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

None of my low ball bids got met yesterday.
Hoping for more falls today.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And speaking of High debt, the US debt has now hit 23 trillion.


from The Hill

QUOTE
The federal government's outstanding public debt has surpassed $23 trillion for the first time in history, according to data from the Treasury Department released on Friday.

Growing budget deficits have added to the nation's debt at a speedy rate since President Trump took office. The debt has grown some 16 percent since Trump's inauguration, when it stood at $19.9 trillion. It passed $22 trillion for the first time just 10 months ago.
Of the $23 trillion figure, just under $17 trillion was in the category of debt held by the public, which is a more useful gauge of the debt the government has to pay down, and the number typically used in calculating the nation's debt burden. The other $6 trillion comes from loans within government bodies.

Still, the $23 trillion figure marks a milestone.

“Reaching $23 trillion in debt on Halloween is a scary milestone for our economy and the next generation, but Washington shows no fear," said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the fiscally conservative Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

"Piling on debt like this is especially unwise and unnecessary in a strong economy," he added.

High levels of debt can push up borrowing costs and interest rates, "crowd out" private borrowing and weigh down budgets. In the 2019 fiscal year, for example, the government had to devote $376 billion just to pay the interest on the debt, equivalent to nearly half the defense budget, and more than the amount spent on the combined costs of education, agriculture, transportation and housing.

The deficit for 2019 came in just under $1 trillion, at $984 billion, and is only expected to grow in coming years.

While the main drivers of spending are mandatory programs such as Social Security, Medicare and anti-poverty programs, major legislation has grown the deficit considerably since Trump came to office.

The 2017 GOP tax law was estimated to cost $1.9 trillion over a decade, while bipartisan deals to boost defense and domestic spending ramped up outlays each year.


At around $185,000 for each person in the US, it sorta makes you wonder why so many people are clamouring to get into the USA, legally or otherwise.

Don't they know what they are getting themselves into??
On the bright side, I guess if they increase the number of people, the debt per person reduces.


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

So, last night further confirmation that the US death notice is a little premature.


QUOTE
The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to a reading of 54.7% in October, up from September’s 52.6%. The 2.1 percentage-point advance surprised the markets, with consensus expectations calling for the index to come in at 53.5%.


Readings above 50 are seen as a sign of economic growth – the farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.

“This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate,” the report said. “The non-manufacturing sector had an uptick in growth after reflecting a pullback in September. The respondents continue to be concerned about tariffs, labor resources and the geopolitical climate.”

The details of the ISM Non-Manufacturing report revealed that the new orders sub-index rose to 60.3% from July’s 54.1%.

Looking at other components, business activity sub-index increased to 55.6% from 53.7% registered in September. The employment index rose to 53.7% from September’s reading of 50.4%. Economists keep a close eye on the latter number as a gauge into the employment situation in the country.

Inflation pressures rose for the 29th consecutive month, with the price index coming in at 56.6% in October.

In an immediate reaction to the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing index, gold prices dropped to new daily lows with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,491.00, down 1.33% on the day.

Prior to the release, gold prices were already down more than 1% on the day on renewed risk-on sentiment triggered by positive U.S.-China trade headlines and the rallying U.S. stock market.

The service sector’s advance in October is consistent with “modest growth,” said CIBC Capital Markets senior economist Andrew Grantham.

“The details showed most of the major sub-indices improving, including business activity, new orders and employment. As such, the report appears to confirm what Friday's payrolls figures suggested, namely that the services side of the U.S. economy is still in good shape, which will negate the need for further interest rate reductions,” Grantham wrote.


Full article Here.

The US has become like OZ, a giant service industry where manufacturing has become such a small part of the economy, its relevance becomes less important.
Having outsourced those boring low paid manufacturing jobs to Asia, the service industry is now king.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Well, overnight the PM's got pounded. Those in the know in OZ yesterday sold down most of the goldies yesterday.
I expect they will get sold down big time today.
I have set some low ball bids in them in the hope of picking up some on the cheap(er).

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

After opening well down (is that the STO??), all my goldies had a big jump through the day when the price of gold/silver barely changed.
Are we about to see another pump from the US markets 2nite??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 03:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And today they announce the big one, California.
California Transport Authority has approved both the Edencrete products as preferred users in the states concrete pavements.
Up[ 13% today/

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 2 2019, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

On the other hand, the Chinese may be changing tack in doing away with the USD as a reserve currency.

according to Kitco news


QUOTE
China’s big move for the 21st century is to pull a “trap door” on the U.S. by launching a gold-backed crypto currency that will devalue the U.S. dollar to “zero,” this according to Max Keiser, host of the Keiser Report.

“[China] is rolling out a cryptocurrency, a lot of the details have not been divulged. I can tell you that the cryptocurrency that China’s rolling out will be backed by gold. It’s a two-pronged announcement. Number one, China’s got 20,000 tonnes of gold, number two, we’re rolling out a crypto coin backed by gold, and the dollar is toast,” Keiser told Kitco News.

Keiser added that bitcoin is a superior form of currency to gold.

“Both fiat money and gold are inferior to bitcoin for one very simple reason, that with a bitcoin transaction, it i s also simultaneously the settlement. You don’t have that with fiat, you don’t have that with gold,” he said.


The full report can be seen here


One of the interesting things is that he says that if 5 years ago, you had invested 10,000 dollars in gold, today it would be worth 12,500. A return of 5% a year.
However, if you had invested that same 10,000 in bitcoin 5 years ago, it would be worth 250,000 today.

His second piece of data, namely that China does not have 2,000 tons of gold, but actually has 20,000 tons og f gold is a little more contentious.
Chinas stats are notoriously opaque, unless there is almost no gold left inFort Knox, its hard to see where the massive increase has come from.

But if he is correct, and China is about to start using a cryptocurrency backed by gold, its a game changer.
However, getting its trading partners to accept a crypto for trade is a bit problematic.

Mick





China
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 2 2019, 08:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Bloombergs on the reasons why the USD is still king.



[quote]Russian President Vladimir Putin is acting on a pledge to shrink the role of the U.S. dollar in international trade. Jean-Claude Juncker, outgoing president of the European Commission, says it’s “absurd” that Europe uses the greenback for 80% of energy imports. Chinese President Xi Jinping has railed against economic “hegemonism.” Can the mighty dollar retain its global dominance when attacked from so many sides? Don’t count it out yet.

1. Why are some people fed up with the dollar?
Because it’s so prevalent. The U.S. currency is on one side of almost 90% of foreign-exchange transactions and accounts for two-thirds of international debt. Almost all international trades in oil are priced in dollars, hence the term petrodollars. That ubiquity makes nations beholden to fluctuations in its value and ties their economies to decisions made in Washington. As Juncker intimated, it makes sense for European countries to pay for their energy needs in euros rather than dollars. Then there are the countries that get on the wrong side of American policy.

2. What’s the issue there?
Sanctions. U.S. leverage rests with the central role its banks, and the dollar, play in the global economy; any country, company or bank that violates sanctions could see their U.S.-based assets blocked or lose the ability to move money to or through accounts held in the U.S. A spate of such penalties has pushed Russia to target faster “de-dollarization.” And European leaders began work on a payments system that would enable their companies to do business with Iran without getting snagged, though progress has been slow.

3. Is dollar concern a new thing?
The U.S. currency has dominated since the end of World War II, when world leaders met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to establish a system to manage foreign exchange and agreed to link their currencies to the dollar. The push to dial back the greenback has its origins partly in the 1998 currency crisis, when Asian nations got caught borrowing too many dollars and were plunged into recession as their currencies plummeted and debt repayments soared. Fast forward a decade, and Asia’s amassing of dollars to build currency reserves helped fuel a U.S. credit binge that triggered the global financial crisis. Back in 2010, Brazil, Russia, India and China set up the BRIC partnership with the aim of establishing a new world order. More recently, China has put its weight behind developing a “Belt and Road” trade route across Asia and Europe lined with infrastructure projects financed in local currencies. Those efforts accelerated after the U.S. instigated a trade war.

4. Is the dollar’s market share shrinking?
No. The Bank for International Settlements’ triennial survey showed the share of currency trades in dollars had increased marginally since 2016 to 88%. The euro’s share climbed a percentage point to 32% in 2019. Emerging-market currencies gained 3.5 points to 24.5%, mostly at the expense of the yen, while China’s yuan accounted for 4%, the same as in 2016. The share of foreign reserves held in dollars (about 62%) has remained steady over the past decade, while the dollar’s usage in global payments tracked by financial institutions has actually risen since the start of the decade.
Too much bother. Shifting to the euro, yuan or ruble means higher costs and difficulties finding banks to handle business. The euro’s allure as currency to back trade and investment has hardly been boosted by the region’s 2010 sovereign debt crisis and the European Central Bank’s use of negative interest rates. Volatility and scant volumes in emerging currencies make for higher trading and hedging costs. Russia’s first year of diversifying away from the dollar illustrated another peril: In a strong period for the dollar, the country missed out on $7.7 billion in potential returns on its foreign exchange reserves.

6. Can any currency compete with the dollar?The euro is the only currency anywhere close. That was the conclusion of a European Commission report on strengthening the international role of the currency in June 2019. Rifts with U.S. President Donald Trump over trade tariffs as well as the sanctions on Iran have pushed the EU to seek greater financial independence. The report also found potential for boosting the share of commodities transactions in euros. With so many national governments to appease, though, progress on big European projects like this tends to be slow-moving. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says it would be a mistake to switch one dominant currency for another; he advocates a global digital currency to supersede the dollar.

7. Why is Russia pressing ahead?“We aren’t ditching the dollar, the dollar is ditching us,” is how Putin put it in 2018. Successive rounds of U.S. sanctions over Ukraine and alleged election-meddling in the U.S., and the threat of more to come, have given Russia good reason to try to move as much of its economy as possible out of the reach of Washington. Last year the central bank sold $100 billion in dollars from its reserves and spread the money between euro and yuan. A campaign to get companies to switch contracts to local currencies appears to be working. The euro is on course to overtake the dollar in Russia’s trade with the EU and China.

8. Is China on board?
China’s drive to make the yuan a more widely used global currency reached its pinnacle in 2015, when the International Monetary Fund decided to make it the fifth currency in its prestigious special drawing rights currency basket -- a kind of overdraft account it holds for global central banks. Yet the People’s Bank of China’s focus has shifted during a six-year weakening of the yuan to keeping a tighter rein on capital outflows and trading. Bond sales raising currency outside the mainland -- so-called offshore yuan -- have flagged. Offshore yuan deposits are down 33% from their 2015 high. On the other hand, China has been on a mission to open domestic exchanges that are priced in yuan for commodities such as oil and iron ore.

9. Is anyone actively challenging the dollar?
Putin said in a meeting with Xi in June that using the dollar as an instrument of pressure was “undermining its role as a global reserve currency.” (A reserve currency is one that’s held by others in significant quantities as part of their foreign-exchange reserves.) Xi, with an eye on trade talks with the U.S. that involve a currency pact, obliquely described “hegemonism” as a global challenge. But watch closely for what China is doing. The focus has shifted from turning the yuan into a freely convertible currency, without government restrictions, to nurturing real economic activity through loans for its Belt and Road initiative. And keep an eye on Russia settling energy deals in euros and defense contracts in rupees. The dollar may be winning the war on the trading floors of London, New York and Tokyo, but it is losing peripheral skirmishes engineered in Moscow, Delhi and Beijing./quote]

The doc is written from a US perspective, but not a bad summary.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 2 2019, 07:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

So, we have the feds pumping money into the repo market to shore up the banks, they have also added another rate cut, the PMI index is still falling, the dems are trying to impeach the president, the same president who started a trade war with the its biggest trading partner, climate change will destroy America within 12 years (at least according to three climate experts in AOC., Greta, and Jane Fonda). You would think that people would be streaming out of the country for a safe haven rather than more and more trying to get in. The joint is doomed.
But if you can believe the the BLS Jobs report, the 128,000 jobs added in October, while not a fantastic number in its own right, it beat all expectations. And this despite the strike at GM. And to top it off, the previous August number was revised upwards from 168,000 to 219,000 and Septembers from 136,000 to 180,000. And in a hit to the white male brigade, Women Show Gains in Male-Dominated Sectors Over Last Year
Between October 2018 and October 2019, women gained employment in the mining and logging industry by 1% as well as other sectors. And finally, unemployment for black men drops to its lowest level since 1972.
The median for spells of unemployment has fallen from a high of 25 weeks after the GFC to around 9 weeks, back to levels last seen in 2007.

Perhaps the end is not so nigh after all.

All from the WSJ

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041


From The Australian

QUOTE
Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has recorded one of the biggest profits by an Australian private company in recent history, the iron ore miner’s 2019 financial accounts reveal.

Hancock doubled its net profit to $2.6bn in the 2019 financial year, accounts lodged with the corporate regulator on Thursday evening show.

Mrs Rinehart’s business paid a huge $1.1bn in tax, up from $600m last year. Revenue, most of which is from iron ore sales, surged to $8.4bn from $5.8bn in 2018.

Mrs Rinehart is ranked second on The List — Australian’s Richest 250, published by The Australian, with estimated wealth of $13.12bn based on last year’s ­Hancock result.

Visy executive chairman Anthony Pratt narrowly beat Mrs Rinehart to top spot with an estimated wealth of $13.14bn.

Hancock paid $483m in dividends this year, down from $528m in 2018.

So good were its results this year that Hancock said it was paying down $US1bn debt in two chunks, one this month and the rest early next year.

Mrs Rinehart’s wealth is derived from a majority stake in the company, which has huge mining, agriculture and investment assets.

The jewel in the crown is the Roy Hill iron ore mine.

Last month, Mrs Rinehart added the Warrabah Station in the New England region of NSW to her already substantial holdings. A run of agricultural purchases by the mining magnate is broadening the scope of her empire and diversifying its earnings.

Hancock Prospecting is among the largest landholders in the country.


A smart, capable no nonsense lady cfdarrying oncontinuing and expanding the work started by her father.

No swiss bank accounts, no fancy transfer pricing to Singapore shelf companies.

A woman in charge of a company that pays a billion in Tax.

No quotas here .

Not a word from the sisterhood.

I guess for the woke sisters, mining, meat from cattle production, are really bad things.

Perhaps they should offer to give back the tainted tax money,.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

It seems a common theme everywhere.
In the old days, you were told to take a cup of cement and harden up.
Most sports these days are well tuned to recognise mental fragility.
Cricket may be just catching up with the other ports.
I thought S Smith was going to fall in a deep deep hole after he got banned; he was crying seriously in the TV interviews.
Warner on the other hand, has inherited the mental toughness of Steve Waugh.
By the way, did anyone else notice that none of the Aus/Sl T20's were televised on Free to air??
Obviously the lankans just don't rate,

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 05:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Somebody gunna lose their shirt.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

When I was a young lD, my uncle gave me some sage adice.
“Son, there are three things in life that youneed to be extremely wary of:
1. Teetotallers.
2. Vegatarians
3. The electrics in any Austin.”



Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

From Chuck Butlers GCRU

QUOTE
QUOTE

I haven't touched on the massive amounts of derivatives in the markets these days in a while, and then I saw this from Ainslie Bullion… “the idea that derivatives are not a source of systemic risk because the open (netted) position may seem small is one of the great misconceptions about derivatives. Derivatives fund nothing, but serve to shift exposures from one party to another and work through margins (collateral), yet they carry all the bankruptcy characteristics of debt for the out-of-the-money party. A sudden move on volatility can shift the Gross Market Value quickly, and netting provides no protection for this. Netting is about settlement amounts using prices at the point of close out. Netting does not protect any financial firm from market risk.”

In 2008, we were within an eyelash of a catastrophic moment in derivatives… Did we learn anything then? No… The number of derivatives in the markets place today far exceeds where we were in 2008… I just don’t know how to explain this any further to you folks, other than to say that The debt has grown by so much that it seems impossible for it not to eventually trigger the kind of uncontrolled or ‘disorderly’ market event that sees the derivative ‘worst case’ issue playing out. And once again I ask… Got Gold?
QUOTE



Agh History, its just that , History. Of course it has no bearing on today. Today is differrent this time.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 25 2019, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Silver off om a run again .
Up over 18 bucks again.
Question is, will it be sustained??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And the battle still rages.
Back up above a buck this morning.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

geez nipp, I had written and spell checked a similar article after reading the announcement, luckily I went out and hung the washing before I posted a double up.
Can't wait to see the loyalty program, will they give me for QANTAS FF points, or just a free set of steak knives??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 21 2019, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The losers from this week"
Kawaja a duck and 2, Travis head a duck and 12, Wade 20 and 40 (though he did top score in second innigs)
Warner 1 and 15 No in a win.
Hanscombe 12, Bancroft 10 in a big total
Nathan Lyon only 2 for 90 odd out of 20 (though Starc hogged them all himself).
All the Victorian bowlers, Pattinson at least got four, siddle 2.
Travis Paine two low scores,

The winners were Labuschage 32 and 72 NO Smith another centur but also a failure with 2, , S marsh a double ton.
Starc 10 wickets for the match.
Wes Agar, (the other Agar) took 6/90 for match , 20 No on debut.
Like the look of Riley meredith, 5 wicket haul in NSW innings. One of these odd characters that bowls right handed and bats left handed. Tall, only 23, one to wtach.


Jury still out.
Marcus Harris 62 and 8
Will Pusovski a scratchy 64 and still not out early in 2nd dig.

Joe Burns 39 and 22 and Matt Renshaw 18 and 24 nothing to crow about.

Nobody else in contention worth mentioning.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 20 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

South Africa struggling like all non sub continent teams in India.
It doesn't help when they have lost the toss in all three tests, in fact the saffers have lost the toss ten times in a row in India, a rather startling stst.
They have changed tossers (??) a number of times but it doesn't seem to help.
Its tough to win in India, but its even tougher when the home side always gets to bat first.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 19 2019, 10:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I presume allthe mums and dads understand the meaning of a ponzi scheme and the old addage that with increased return comes increased risk, not necessarily in equal portions.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 19 2019, 05:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And yet both IGO and MCR my two nickel stocks have come off the boil; in recent times.
Obviously local players have not read the report by Tim Serjeant.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

SBM puts out a lower guidance of output range, and a higher guidance for all in costs.
Share price crunched again.
Now well below last cap raising, hoping that more get out and it goes lower.
Still producing gold, still making a profit, on a forward PE under 9.
I will buy more , but hopefully at a lower price.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 11:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Paris zoo has showcased a mysterious new organism, dubbed the "blob", a yellowish unicellular small living being which looks like a fungus but acts like an animal.

FromABC NEWS

QUOTE
This newest exhibit of the Paris Zoological Park, which will go on display to the public this weekend, has no mouth, no stomach, no eyes, yet it can detect food and digest it.

The blob also has almost 720 sexes, can move without legs or wings and heals itself in two minutes if cut in half.

"The blob is a living being which belongs to one of nature's mysteries", said Bruno David, director of the Paris Museum of Natural History, of which the Zoological Park is part.

"It surprises us because it has no brain but is able to learn.

"If we put it in a maze, it will learn and take the best route out of the maze to find its food. If we put an obstacle in front of it — the blob hates salt, for example — it won't get past it right away, even if there is food behind it.

"Then the blob will learn how to get past the barrier and get to its food, and it will start to do this more quickly and more strongly.

"If we fuse two blobs together, the one which learned will transmit its knowledge to the other, and so, it will know directly how to get past this barrier."



Sounds like the description of a Government to me.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 01:16 PM


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DRO up 13% today.
Must be an announcement in the offing.
Tempted to take the money and run.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

looks like the shorters might be taking another bath.
SLR up 6% currently on a day after both gold and silver were crunched by the COT boys.
Could be an interesting fight.
Not sure why they would pick SLR as a shorting stock , they are producing gold, their forward P/E is under 13, and are expecting production to be in the upper end of guidance.
maybe they know something we don't.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 08:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I had not seen anything on this topic in the OZ press.
Could have a pretty big impact on exports to Indonesia.
QUOTE
Indonesia is all set to make halal labeling mandatory for consumer products and services from this week, but the high cost of securing the license and absence of clear guidelines mean millions of local producers are still without certificates.

The compulsory labeling will first apply to the food and beverage products and services from Oct. 17 before being gradually expanded to include drugs, cosmetics and other consumer goods, according to the nation’s Halal Product Guarantee Agency. But a large number of small and medium companies are struggling to meet the rules without detailed technical guidelines, the Indonesian Food and Beverage Producers Association said.


Fom Bloombergs
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 04:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041



Important Breakthroughs in science via the Ignobel Prize.
QUOTE
Every year, the Ig Nobel awards — a parody conference of the Nobel Prize awards — honor published scientific papers that “first make people laugh, and then make them think.” And like every year, this edition didn’t fail to both entertain and amaze us.

Patricia Yang and colleagues at the Georgia Institute of Technology won the Ig Nobel for Physics after they solved the riddle of how wombats make cube-shaped poop.

“The first thing that drove me to this is that I have never seen anything this weird in biology. That was a mystery,” said Yang. “I didn’t even believe it was true at the beginning. I Googled it and saw a lot about cube-shaped wombat poop, but I was skeptical.”The researchers found that near the end of the digestive system, the poop turned from liquid to solid, and that’s when it becomes a cube. The group believes that the elasticity of the wombats’ intestinal walls allows for this process to take place, and at quite a high pace — wombats typically produce 80-100 cubes per night. The wombat’s dry environment also plays a role in its bricklaying.Meanwhile, French researchers measured “scrotal temperature asymmetry in naked and clothed postmen in France.” According to Roger Mieusset, a researcher at Paul Sabatier University in Toulouse, a man’s left scrotum is slightly hotter than the right. The researchers, which received the Ig Nobel in Anatomy, say that their findings may explain why the left testicle hangs slightly lower than the right.

Did you know that pizza could stave off illness and even death? Now I’ve got your attention. Apparently, these were the findings of Silvano Gallus and colleagues who found eating pizza was associated with a reduced risk of breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer — but only if the pizza was made in Italy. In their study, the researchers acknowledged that the effect may be due to the overall Mediterranean diet that many Italians use and which numerous studies have recognized as one of the healthiest in the world.Every parent has wondered how much saliva their 5-year-old produces, right? A Japanese team has the answer: about 500 ml per day. Shigeru Watanabe, a professor of pediatric dentistry at the School of Health Sciences at Meikai University in Urayasu, and colleagues were awarded the Ig Nobel in chemistry for their work, which was originally made in 1995. Fritz Strack, of the University of Wurzburg, in Germany, won the psychology prize for “discovering that holding a pen in one’s mouth makes one smile, which makes one happier — and for then discovering that it does not.”


So how many of you blokes checked their testicular leanings after reading this??

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

As usual, they only tell part of the story.
The so called blue hydrogen from Natural gas is rather energy intensive in that it treats the Natural gas with steam to produce the hydrogen.
Unfortunately it also produces carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide.
So instead of burning the natural gas to produce energy and carbon dioxide, we stick an intermediate step in to produce carbon dioxide.
And of course it is using fossil fuel as its feedstock, a finite non renewable source.
At least in the electrolysis version of the green hydrogen, the raw materials, water is quite abundant, is very renewable, and the byproduct, oxygen is a little more useful and less of a greenhouse gas than CO2.
And of course when hydrogen is "burnt" in the presence of oxygen to release the energy, the byproduct is water, which of course becomes the feedstock again. Simples.
I thought the whole point of these new renewable fuels was to stop using fossil fuels and reduce the CO2.
Mind you, Water vapour itself is a greenhouse gas, but the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is controlled by its temperature, rather then the other way around.
Still , tit is generally acknowledged that about 60% of global warming is due to water vapour.

Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The shorters may be rushing to cover.
Up over 10% to the the dollar mark.
Can only guess that the reason is due to the quarterly report where they suggested that production this year will be well into the upper end of the forecast .
Now waiting to approach that recent 1.50 high.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 09:08 AM


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Posts: 2,041

Another announcement out today.
Thats four in the past week alone.
It has taken a little while, but EDE is finally in the green for me.
Maybe those fee options we got in the last cap raising might start to look attractive as well.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 07:03 AM


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Posts: 2,041

Hmm, not sure if I would put a lot of credence on lawyers pontifications.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 07:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I watched the game in full. The Oz girls are a classy outfit, though they did drop two catches, one of them a sitter.
Attapathu has now got 7 of the eight top innings in ODI's for her country, as well as the two top T20 innings scores.
And yet she has not been offered a contract in the WBBL, which I find rather surprising.
Someone should sign her up quick smart.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

EDEhas had a few announcements of late re US states adopting their concrete additive products .
May be getting some bulk into the use of these.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 07:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Russia has engineered the removal of the first brick in the wall that protects the USD from being removed as the worlds reserve currency.
from RT.com

QUOTE
Russia’s largest oil company Rosneft has set the euro as the default currency for all new exports of crude oil and refined products.
As of September, Rosneft is seeking euros as the default option of payment for its crude oil and products, Reuters reported on Thursday, quoting tender documents the Russian firm has published.

“Rosneft has recently adjusted all the new contracts for export supplies to euros,” a trader at a company that regularly procures oil from Rosneft told Reuters, adding that buyers have already been notified of the change.


In another related article, fromRT

QUOTE
Russia will not take out loans in US dollars for the remainder of this year and the whole of 2020, turning instead to the yuan and euro, according to the Finance Ministry.
“We will borrow in currencies other than the dollar,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Thursday. He added that the country will not be taking any more loans in 2019.

“This year we have no plans to borrow any more on foreign markets, we have fulfilled our program and even overfulfilled it. Next year, we’ll see. Probably it will be not only in euro but maybe in Chinese yuan,” Siluanov stated back in March, Russia’s Finance Ministry issued Eurobonds worth €2.7 billion ($3 billion) with a maturity date in 2035. It also separately issued Eurobonds worth €750 million ($830 million) with a maturity date in 2025. In June, the Finance Ministry also placed additional Eurobonds worth €1.37 billion ($1.5 billion) with a maturity date in 2029, and €900,000 ($1 billion) with a maturity date in 2035.

Earlier, it was revealed that Moscow and Beijing are working on a new way of cutting their reliance on the US dollar, as Russia plans to issue its first yuan-denominated bond. The move is aimed at assisting both countries’ economies in dealing with US tariffs and sanctions. The proposal will also allow Moscow to extend its list of foreign creditors. While Chinese investors do not buy Russia’s ruble-denominated bonds, the launch of the yuan bonds would give them an opportunity to invest in Russian state debt.Meanwhile, due to steadily growing gold and foreign currency reserves, Russia’s state-debt-to-GDP ratio last month turned negative for the first time since 2014, when the country’s economy was battered by Western sanctions and the oil market crash. As of August 1, Russian state debt (at federal, regional and municipal levels) amounted to 16.2 trillion rubles (around $247.3 billion). At the same time, liquid assets of federal government, regional authorities and non-budget funds stood at 17.6 trillion rubles (nearly $268.8 billion).


Wish there was easy way to invest in Roubles. It is the best performing currency this year by far.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 6 2019, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I can see where they might get five. Sex is always best when there are two people involved.
I was always encouraged to never drink alone, so theres another two.
Driving is one thing that is best done one at a time.
Total 5.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Just for interest, I senr t an email off to the Rivian pre order address to see if it was possible to preorder a RHD version.
Their answer was no, they have not announced their plans for Australia yet.
Note this does not mean they don't have any, just not announced yet.
But they promised to keep me informed via email of progress in that direction.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 10:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

It maybe that the next generation of storage devices are not chemical in origin ( as in batteries), but rather purely electrical.
Was reading the other day about new generati9n of capacitors, that can handle up to 30,000 farads.
A bunch of them in the vehicle would give. Some kick.
Mind you, I would not like to be around if when misfired. Would be plenty of smoke and noises.
I seem to revall attaching 1 farad capacitors to doorhandles etc as a joke for some unfortunate colleague.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Well, I read the article about the proof, and am still none the wiser.
Stats were never one of my strongest points.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 03:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Just watched the Healy Girl hit the highest T20 score in womens cricket. 148NO.
Not only can they play cricket, they are less aggressive, more sportspersonlike, but they are much better looking.
Two scores above 200 for a few wickets each time.
they are a long way ahead of the rest.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Good analysis, you have been pretty well spot on for a week or so.
I have been on wrong side.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 05:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Trouble is, if people cycle out of the USD , what are they going in to??
USD is the langua franca in many countries. I can't see what currency will replace it.
There is nothing else out there. No matter how much the Chinese huff and puff, the yuan will never replace the USD.
Its supposed to be happening any day for the last 15 years, and its no closer now.
It would require a level of trust between governments or blocks of governments for any other currency to become paramount.
You only have to look at history to see how well cooperation between Nations has turned out.
Its every man/woman for himself/herself, despite the rhetoric.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yeah, and the world coming to a climatic end in 12 years as per AOC, or the doomsday clock hits 12 midnight, or maybe someone will produce a net positive fusion reactor, or one of Nicholas Taleb;s black swans alights on the financial markets. Maybe Erlich might actaually be right and the population bomb will do us all in. Or maybe the glabalists win the battle over the the rest,. What about China imploding due to internal unrest. ( Or the UK, or Russia, or Indonesia, or the US, or even Australai). All of them have a level of internal angst.
There are multiple scenarios, but the unfortunately the venerable Rana doesn't know anymore than anyone else.
Soothsayers are a dime a dozen, and thats about what they are worth.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Just to emphasise that these are for real, Amazon has ordered 10,000 of these electric trucks from Rivian.

QUOTE
Talk about a startup coming out of nowhere: Amazon this week announced it’s buying 100,000 electric delivery vans from startup Rivian. Prototypes may reach Amazon next year, with deliveries from 2021 to 2024.

The Amazon order rockets Rivian from amusing curiosity (“hey, one more EV startup, like Fisker for trucks?”) to a company getting considerable attention at the November 2018 LA Auto Show (with SUV, pickup prototypes unveiled) to being taken seriously by bankers ($700 million Amazon investment in February, $500 million Ford investment in April plus announced Ford plans to use the Rivian platform in a Ford vehicle) to Player-with-a-Capital-P this week (at $100,000 a truck, Amazon’s order equals $10 billion).


AMAZON Bus Rivian

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Howdy Balance, I think the Rivian was discussed somewhere else.
Cool truck, would be the ultimate tow vehicle.
Have a few of those folding solar blankets, a bunch of andersen plugs and away ya go.
Might need to take a genny for those cloudy days.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 08:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

A victorian startup company has been quietly building electric trucks and vans.
From EV Trucks

QUOTE
FLEDGLING Australian electric powertrain specialist SEA Electric has doubled its production volume over the past 12 months and expects significant growth in the years ahead as it continues to expand its footprint on the back of new local and international contracts.

Less than three years since starting commercial operations, the Melbourne-based company now has close to 100 vehicles on the road with one of its SEA-Drive powertrains, and more than 60 employees in Australia and abroad who are developing the technology and forging partnerships with major manufacturers – including Ford Motor Company – as well as automotive suppliers, transport companies and other large organisations.
Financial details and the level of government support remain undisclosed, but GoAuto has learned that year-on-year compound revenue growth to the end of year three will be more than 230 per cent.
Focusing on commercial vans and light and medium trucks, SEA Electric has programs underway in Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, South Africa and, perhaps most notably, North America, where it recently sealed a deal with Detroit Chassis in Michigan to integrate the Aussie electric powertrain into Ford’s F-59 stripped chassis and produce a Morgan Olson-sourced walk-in step van for a still-secret “leading package delivery company”.
In an interview with GoAuto last week, SEA Electric’s regional director for Oceania, Glen Walker, said the company was fast approaching the “tipping point” where production would ramp up significantly at its Victorian base in Dandenong South – and at a forthcoming facility in Morwell on the Latrobe Valley coal belt – as well as in overseas markets, where it will licence the technology to the OEM or else supply the powertrain and install it where required.
It is also now set up to work with OEMs on engineering to prototype stage before ultimately licencing the full drivetrain for series production.

Mr Walker said the F-59 chassis that is found in a wide variety of vehicles, from motorhomes and school buses to US Postal Service vehicles and all manner of delivery vans, offered huge potential and that SEA Electric is working closely with development partners Roush, Fontaine and Detroit Chassis “for five Ford models currently identified, in collaboration with Ford Motor Company”.
SEA Electric’s regional director for North America, David Brosky, is also on record as saying the Ford F-59 electric chassis is expected to lead to “substantial follow-on orders from fleet customers within the next six to 12 months”.

“Currently it’s a pilot program, but discussions are ongoing,” Mr Walker said. “It (the chassis) is the foundation for many, many tens of thousands of vehicles in North America, whether they’re the UPS vans or school buses, so it’s a very versatile platform.
“We’ve currently produced one vehicle, and that’s had significant dynamometer testing and scientific testing, and it’s just about to hit the road.”

Mr Walker would not be drawn on specifying the large number of OEMs and other companies with which it is engaged in both R&D and contract negotiations, although it does have local conversion pilot programs in place with Isuzu and Hino, and is also known to be working with Ford, Isuzu and General Motors in the US.

“As much as I would love to share with you who they are, and what they are, (I can’t) – suffice to say we’re very excited about it and they are significant entities in the global automotive supply space,” he said.
“We’re approaching that tipping point where we don’t have to combat market acceptance, and on the other side of that tipping point is significant growth opportunity.
“We have at least doubled our level every year we have been operating, and I see no reason to assume that rate of increase won’t continue at that or even a higher rate.
“The business in growing, and it’s growing quickly.”
SEA Electric has just delivered Australia’s first electric tipper truck to the City of Yarra in Melbourne – developed in partnership with Isuzu Australia – and also last week donated an early prototype delivery truck to the Victorian branch of the Salvation Army’s Salvos Stores, which now stands as the first charity retailer in Australia to have an EV on its national distribution fleet.

Just as city councils offer strong sales potential for SEA, the company’s charitable endeavours will bring broad publicity and kudos and could lead to a supply contract with the Salvos, who are looking to develop an EV strategy, as well as with other organisations.
The company is mainly targeting those which use commercial vehicles for short stop-start delivery runs and back-to-base operations, which can do without an external charging infrastructure.
“We don’t look upon ourselves as an OEM in our own right, even though we have some vehicles where we are, and that was mainly driven out of necessity,” said Mr Walker, noting other prototypes SEA has built based on King Long vans imported from China as “gliders” (sans engine).
“Our preferred way to market in Australia is to be partnering with an OEM, supplying an electrified drivetrain and/or installing an electrified drivetrain.
“But we’re not limiting ourselves to one geography. Our platform is scalable, it’s adaptable, and it’s been designed to be as versatile for the broadest range of platforms we can possibly imagine.
“And by partnering with the OEMs in the relevant country, we’re able to quickly deploy prototype vehicles for them to test and verify.”
SEA Electric is also building its presence, one prototype at a time, with companies that have a large carbon footprint, such as DHL and Ikea in Europe.
“There are organisations that have publicly expressed a desire to lower their carbon footprint and, for many of those organisations, transport is a key part of that,” Mr Walker said.
“And in discussions with those organisations, usually from that will come a (pilot SEA Electric) vehicle – or a small number of vehicles.
“What’s important to focus on is we do not expect those companies to treat us any differently from what they do any other supplier of vehicles.
“Our vehicles have to stand or fall on their application suitability, and on their whole-of-life operating cost, and we’re confident that the whole-of-life operating cost models that we have are true and correct and that they do show a reduced overall total cost of ownership over the first five years.
“And we’re also confident in their application suitability in the sub-23t (GVM) back-to-base each day, 200-250km run.”
Mr Walker also said the EV powertrain can be easily adapted to used vehicles, and that the company was working on the case for retrofitting pre-owned urban delivery vehicles in Australasia and further afield, particularly emerging markets in Asia.
“That is a market that we’re actively exploring at the market, both here and overseas,” he said.


Interesting.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 02:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

One of the detection systems that Drone Shield uses is the sound of the rotors.
Its not loud, but certainly detectable.
At first, I thought that this was a pretty smart way of detecting, , as physics says that the rotors will emit noise, not necessarily at the frequencies of human hearing, but beat osscillations non the less.
Then it suddenly hit me that in the same way that Automatic Noise Reduction Headphones work, a drone maker could add a sample of the noise being made and just emit the same noise, but at 180 degrees out of phase.
Thus the two cancel each other out and silence is all that remains.
The next step is to change the algorithms in the GPS satellite software such that the satellites can be switched off to non "friendly" devices.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 08:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Capitulation? More likely Manipulation.
Why some people keep saying that we must be open to trade with China is beyond me.
They are only interested in trade if it benefits the Chinese mainly.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 16 2019, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Perhaps you blokes should look at Stand up Comedy.
Though on second thoughts, given the age of some of us, it should be sit down comedy, maybe even post nap lying down comedy.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 16 2019, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

As I have been a captive market sitting up in rehab after getting a new left knee, between being interrupted by the nurses constantly doing obs, I have been able to watch most of this last test.
We were outplayed. Oz players looked tired, but gave their all.
Mathew Wade played extremely well, both of his centuries justify his selection.
There has been much made of the DRS system.
One of the reasons that England got significantly more LBW decisions was because they bowled a fuller length.
Nbut we got the ashes, which was the main aim of the game.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 09:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yeah, it's usually the ones who can least afford it who end up the losers.
The winners are the ones who control the rules of the game..
The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 08:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

From The Australian

QUOTE
Ultra-low interest rates and looser banking restrictions have sparked the fastest rise in mortgage lending in five years, as senior economists warn the growth risks reinflating a dangerous housing bubble.

Official data released on Monday revealed the number of new loans approved in July surged 4 per cent after the lending rules were loosened and following the re-election of the Morrison Government.

It came as analysts raised concerns the economy was still facing a slowdown given Canberra’s reluctance to use fiscal policy to stimulate household consumption.

The lending figures — the fastest increase in borrowing since October 2014 — came after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates twice in two months for the first time since the global financial crisis, bringing rates down to the current record low of 1 per cent.

The RBA has warned rates could be pushed close to zero if economic activity doesn’t pick up.

JPMorgan senior economist Sally Auld said the strong lending figures could trigger a resurgence in the Australian economy, which last week notched up its slowest quarter since the global financial crisis.

“But it’s not really the growth we want,” Ms Auld said. She said the increase in household debt and further reliance on the property market to drive the economy “will just make the vulnerability worse down the track”.

“Very large revisions to the credit data last month suggest the regulator has well and truly loosened its approach to investor mortgage lending,” Ms Auld said, pointing to a recent revision where the RBA reclassified $72 billion worth of wrongly classified owner-occupier loans as investor mortgages, equal to a 12 per cent increase in the stock.


It seems that we are doomed to being part of continuous boom and bust cycles forever.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Zero hedge carry an interview with Greenspan.
Have not agreed with much he has done since he chaired the FED, but has an interesting take on gold.

From Zero Hedge

QUOTE
During the interview, Greenspan focused on an interesting fundamental he thinks is driving both the bond and gold markets - the aging population. He said there has been a shift in time preferences as people recognize they will likely live longer and they will need to finance those longer lives. This, he says, is increasing the demand for hard assets like gold.

One of the reasons that the gold price is rising as fast as it is … that’s telling us essentially that people are hard resources which they know are going to have a value 20 years from now, or 30 years from now as they age, and they want to make sure they have the resources to keep themselves in place. That is a clearly fundamental force that is driving this.

Historically, gold has served as an inflation hedge and a wealth preserver. It makes sense that investors concerned about maintaining their savings well into the future would turn to gold. This is especially true given the likelihood of increasing inflation as the Federal Reserve continues to try to prop up the economy with low interest rates and quantitative easing.
Peter Schiff has said that eventually, the world will drown in an ocean of inflation.

Every central bank has bought into this nonsense that we must have inflation and that interest rates need to be negative. Inflation needs to be high enough to have real negative rates all over the globe. That’s where we are heading. So, if that is the case, people have no place to hide except gold and that is why they’re buying.”

Greenspan also talked about negative interest rates. He said the aging population is also one underlying factor in falling bond yields. An aging population is driving demand for bonds, pushing up the price and driving down yield. He says he eventually expects to see negative yields in the US.

You’re seeing it pretty much throughout the world. It’s only a matter of time before it’s more in the United States.”

There is now more than $15 trillion in negative-yielding debt globally. Greenspan said when there is a significant change in the attitude of the population, the “look for coupon.”

As a result of that, there’s a tendency to disregard the fact that that has an effect in the net interest rate that they receive.”

As far as the economy goes, Greenspan said it “seems to be sagging.”

Former Reagan OMB director David Stockman had another take on falling bond yields, saying recently that the bond market is in the “mother of all bubbles.”

What we’re seeing is rampant speculation in the bond market. Investors are banking on continued bond-buying by central banks. They believe this will continue to push prices up and they’re speculating on the rising prices. It’s nothing but a massive bond market bubble.”


Bill Bonner has another take on gold.

QUOTE
In 1980, stocks traded at an all-time bottom, in gold terms, when you could buy all 30 Dow stocks for less than 2 ounces of gold. By 1999, they hit an all-time high, when it took 40 ounces.

In terms of time, the move was less dramatic – but it told the same story.

The average working man had to work about 100 hours to buy the Dow stocks in 1980. By 1999, he had to put in 821 hours.

It looked like the stock market was out of whack on both ends.

In 1980, stocks were too cheap. In 1999, they were too dear. But then, the stock market began a “correction.” The Nasdaq started to fall in January 2000. A year and a half later, it was down nearly 80% from its peak.

Measured in time, it took the average person 350 hours of labor to buy the Nasdaq in 1999. By mid-2001, it took only 85.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials wiggle-waggled around after January 2000, but fell hard after the mortgage meltdown in 2008.

At the bottom, in March 2009, the average person could buy the Dow for about half as many hours of work as it cost him 1999.


Hence, its obvious to Bill that the DOW is wildly over priced, and is well due for a correction.
He goes on further to say

QUOTE
With the help of the late Dow Jones theorist Richard Russell, we began to see that stock and bond markets followed big, long-term patterns.

It took about 20-40 years for the stock market to complete a full cycle – top to top. The bond market took even longer. Scarcely anybody is still around who recalls the top of the last bull market in bonds. It happened in 1949; now, 70 years later, they’re hitting a new bubble high.

While we knew we couldn’t predict the markets, we began to see that we could spot major tops and bottoms by looking at prices in terms of gold.

The yellow metal is not perfect money. Like everything else in the natural world, it is subject to fits and furies. But it is still the most reliable money humans ever found. And over time, it does a fair job of telling us when things are out of whack.

This led to a very simple Capital Loss Avoidance System, which proved to be very effective for long-term capital preservation: Any time you can buy the Dow for less than 5 ounces of gold, you should buy all the stocks you can. Then, when the Dow goes over 15 ounces of gold, you should sell stocks, buy gold, and sit tight until stocks fall again.

The real beauty of it is that it doesn’t require any research or any pretense of knowledge.

A quick check sees the dow currently costing about 17 ounces of gold to buy the DOW.
So, one has to ask, based on this theory, is gold massively underpriced, or is the DOW massively overpriced.
It would seem its a bit of both, but with a greater fall in the DOW than a rise in gold on the cards.

Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Well, I am out of ALK.
Having doubled since I bought in, even if it was more good luck than good management, it is too good a profit to pass up.
I was more interested in the Rare earths side of the business than its gold production, but what the heck.
It may go higher, but there is no point in being greedy.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Hope it does go above 69, will be buying FOREX at above 69.20.
Just on that note, despite the sanctions in Russia, the Rouble has been the big mover this year.
From Chuck Butler

QUOTE
Well, the BIG news from this weekend as far as currencies are concerned came from Russia, where after 5 years of economic sanctions, the Russian economy continues to grow! Industrial output is on the rise, the Russians believe they will have a record harvest this year, their Current Account is in surplus by $500 Billion… and… Inflation, which has always been a bugaboo for the Russians, has been falling for the past couple of years, and while it was expected to fall to 4.3% this year, it appears that it will be more likely around 3%... With deposit rates still above inflation, that means that Russia, as opposed to most countries, the U.S. included, do not have real negative rates…

The currency, the ruble, rallied big time on the news

More from Chucks Newsletter
QUOTE
Coming in second place for the currency news was China's announcement that they would cut their Reserve Ratio percentage by 50 Basis Points (1/2%). A Reserve Ration cut is akin to an interest rate cut, as it frees up more money to use to support the economy... This news was welcomed by the Asian and Pan Asian Currencies and followed by a rally in this region's currencies.

And just when it appeared that the Chinese renminbi would slip off the ledge and fall into a deep dark abyss, this reserve ratio cut allowed the renminbi to rally for what seems like the first time in month of Sundays!

it's not all gloom and doom news coming from the U.K. these days, although I do have to say that this one caught me by surprise... U.K. GDP saw a 0.3% growth print for July, after June's 0.0% print, there were, and I among them, economists that thought the U.K. was already in recession...

This news was welcomed in the European region, and allowed pound sterling to rally, but left the euro stuck in the mud.
.
So Russia, with a load of sanctions, the UK with the problems of Brexit, both have economies that are travelling well ahead of the pack.
There must be a lesson in this, just can't work out what it is.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

And over time, this will become larger as more and more dollars pour into super.
The SGC rate is slated to eventually jump to 15%.
With such poor returns for cash, the cash has to be converted into non cash assets.
There is not enough quality assets at reasonable prices left in OZ, so overseas is where they go.
Super funds think long term, as most of their clients have to wait a long time to get their returns.
I am hoping the the AUD can creep a bit higher, and I will start looking at FOREX again as I wait the next drama to cause AUD to fall again.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 9 2019, 08:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

George Dobell has produced a wonderfully insightful analysis of England cricket.
England are not as good as they think they are.

QUOTE
That's, basically, the story of this England side. It's full of batsmen with big reputations and small averages. Batsmen who can impress for an hour or two but lack the old-school skills required to build match-defining innings. And bowlers who, while honest, were put in the shade by the sustained excellence of Cummins and Hazlewood. Yes, England did wonderfully well to win the World Cup. But in Test cricket, at least, they're not as good as they think they are. They need an honest appraisal of where they are - much like Jamaica in 2009 - if they are to move forward.


He points out that only one player, Captain Joe root averages more than 36 in test cricket.
Stokes and Bairstow average 35 and 36 respectively. Butler at 33 is the only other player averaging above 30.
And Roots performance since taking on the Role of captain has been telling.
Prior to taking on the role he averaged 52.8, since assuming the captaincy it has fallen to 40.8
Which brings me to the latest calls for Smith to retake the captaincy from Paine.
Smith was a pretty good batsmen while he was captain.
He has gone to a new level since not having that burden.
Don't bring him back, let him be a champion cricketer without the burden of Captaincy.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 9 2019, 02:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Duxton getting a littlennegative publicity.

From The Australian
QUOTE
Investors are allegedly hoarding billions of litres of water, ratcheting up the cost and cruelling food growers who claim they face a massive artificial price spike that is crippling agriculture.

Representatives from about a dozen horticultural industries have written to Water Resources Minister David Littleproud claiming the non-farm water investors are playing the market.

They say the result is a market “squeeze”, pushing up the price of water for irrigation from a longterm average of about $135 a megalitre to $800.

At those prices, farmers say, many crops are no longer profitable, with growers suffering severe financial and emotional hardship that may ultimately force them to “turn off”, or not water, grape vines and nut and citrus trees.

Darren Minter, who farms citrus, almonds and asparagus south of the Victorian city of Mildura, said he would lose money this year, and next year might have to cut off water to his almond trees and not grow asparagus, resulting in no work for 150 employees.

“We want action today because if we keep going this way, it’s going to drive a lot of farmers bust,” Mr Minter said. “Water barons who own water, who don’t own land, should be stopped immediately.”

One of the signatories to the letter to Mr Littleproud, Australian Grape and Wine chief executive Tony Battaglene, said “We have become far more vulnerable to the water trading system”.

Mr Battaglene said at current prices, grape growers were at a “tipping point” on deciding whether it was worth irrigating.

“Once the water price increases up towards $800, it means that it is very hard to produce a crop that can be made into wine that can sell,” he said.

It is understood that among other requests, the letter from the agricultural groups calls for a temporary ban on non-landowning water investors from buying water, and from “carrying over” water from one year to the next.

Sources familiar with the letter said it did not name names but the greatest concern was South Australian company Duxton Water Ltd.

Over three years since it listed on the stock exchange, Duxton Water has amassed water rights worth $256m, giving it control over 74 billion litres of water entitlements, equivalent to the capacity of the Woronora Dam near Sydney.

Rather than sell or lease all its annual water allocations each year, Duxton has “carried over” some water and increased its entitlements by 12.5 billion litres in the six months to June.

While irrigation farmers are fearful of speaking out about Duxton, the head of the largest olivegrowing enterprise in Australia, Rob McGavin, was prepared to express a view to The Australian.

“My concern about Duxton is the amount of allocation water they have reportedly purchased over the last 18 months compared to their annual consumptive use or need, and the material impact this could be having on the price all irrigators are having to pay for allocation water,” Mr McGavin, the chief executive of Boundary Bend Ltd, said.

Duxton Water says its shareholders enjoyed a total return of nearly 30 per cent in the year to June.

In the six months ended June 30, during a severe drought now officially classed as the worst ever, Duxton more than doubled its half-year profit compared with the corresponding period last year, to $2.5m.

Mr McGavin said non-farm water traders and brokers were “driving Maseratis” at a time when farmers were going broke.

He criticised the decision over recent years to change the system in which water entitlements were tied to land ownership to allow non-land-owning investors to purchase water and trade it.

In one example, since the water market in northern Victoria was opened to non-land owners, they have acquired 12 per cent of the volume, while government environmental water holders account for 28 per cent and 57 per cent remains tied to land.

Mr McGavin said the 12 per cent owned by non-farm investors had a disproportionate effect on the market because most of that owned by farmers was used on their farms rather than traded.

Mr McGavin noted that California, among other jurisdictions, banned non-farmers from owning agricultural water precisely to avoid speculation.

“Australian farmers are being used as a real-life guinea pig test case to let the free market rule, but nobody else thinks it’s a good idea,” Mr McGavin said.

“The problem is that one person with a big chequebook can own so much water, working in an office, not slashing the vines and so on. It seems to me that it becomes unfair.”

In a statement to The Australian, Duxton Water said it was a long-term investor in water, not a speculator. It said just over half its water entitlements were let out on long-term lease to irrigators.

“The company will continue to actively manage its allocation holding in order to meet its obligations to its farming partners both short and long term,” it said.

“Our goal is to be a long-term partner with the farming community and to make it easy for farmers to access water over shorter and longer-term periods.”

Duxton said it carried more than $8m worth of water to meet its future commitments to farmers, saying such an amount was “not material”.

It denied its activities had pushed up the price of agricultural water, saying the spike was the result of huge amounts of planting of permanent crops, the government buy-back of water entitlements for environmental flows and drought.

Earlier this year, Mr Littleproud announced that he had asked the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission to investigate the water trading market, and The Australian is aware of at least one letter to the ACCC from an agricultural business listing concerns about Duxton and other non-farm water owners.

In a statement to The Australian, Mr Littleproud encouraged all water users to make a submission to the ACCC. “I want to be sure the water market isn’t being distorted,” he said, adding: “There is a lack of transparency”.

“I want to make sure that family farming businesses are not locked out of the water market,” he said. “I do not want to see traders, brokers or any major market players pushing up water prices as water is a critical resource.”


Having lived in the Goulburn Valley for 40 years, I have seen many changes in irrigation over time.
One of the biggest mistakes was to separate water from the land.
There are a number of local water brokers who say they provide a "service" and help to discover the water prices.
However, like the other investors who trade, they don't produce anything, don't grow anything, just take a fee for the service.
They do very well I might add, but the farmers who actually produce something with the water, once again get squeezed.
Lower prices for their produce, higher prices for their cost inputs.
I can see the likes of Dutton and Webster getting pressure from rural groups.
I have sold out of Websters just in case.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 8 2019, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

You may well have a point there about Langer.
Smith is much better off without the captaincy.
He can offer some advice, but I don't think he was the captain say Mark Taylor or Steve Waugh have been.
He is a little like Ponting, a brilliant and champion player who lacked the tactical nous and understanding of players of lesser ability than themselves.
I would persist with Tim Paine.
His keeping is excellent, and he will learn in the role as captain.
There is no one else crying out for the role.
On the subject of keepers, I wish Wade would just shut up on the field.
The inane rubbish he goes on with is supposed to get under the batsmens skin.
So far, he is only getting under mine.
I cannot but feel sorry for warner.
Rory Burns in particular had numerous close calls in all his innings bar this one.
Warner has gone on the very first good ball every time bar one.
As I said, luck plays such a big part in test cricket.
Right now, Warners luck bowl is totally empty.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Been away in the ouback with no phone reception. Imagine my surprise when we finallyget back in phone reception. What a player that boy Smith is.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 3 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Ya gotta wonder how many chances some players get versus the rest.
Is Khawaja worth persisting with??
He has had so many chances, and although at times he has looked langudly good, there have been many more failures.
Marsh? For heavens sake, how many more chances does he get??
If the track looks like being flat, use Siddle. He can bowl line and length for long periods, and his batting isn't that far behind Marsh.
Gotta feel for players who get one or two tests and then discarded.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 31 2019, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The UK and Europe are locked in a battle over the Brexit details.
Whatever people think of Margaret Thatchers policies, in some areas she was remarkably prescient.
From a speech she gave to CNN World Development Conference
QUOTE
If the divergence between different European economies is so great that even the ERM cannot contain them, how would those economies react to a single European currency? The answer is that there would be chaos of the sort which would make the difficulties of recent days pale by comparison.

Hugh sums would have to be transferred from richer to poorer countries and regions to allow them to take the strain. Even then unemployment and mass migration across now open frontiers would follow. And a full-fledged Single currency would allow no escape hatch.

The political consequences can already be glimpsed: the growth of extremist parties, battening on fears about mass immigration and unemployment, offering a real — if thoroughly unwelcome — alternative to the Euro-centrist political establishment.

If in addition you were to create a supra-national European federation, and the people could no longer hold their national parliaments to account, extremism could only grow further.

It is time for the European politicians to sit up and take note. Time to stop their endless rounds of summits — summitry is fast becoming a substitute for decision-making — and observe the reality around them.

There is a growing sense of remoteness, an alienation of people from their institutions of government and their political leaders. There is a fear that the European train will thunder forward, laden with its customary cargo of gravy, towards a destination neither wished nor understood by electorates. But the train can be stopped.

Tomorrow, the French people will vote on the future of Europe. It is not for me to instruct them on French interest.

But I must stress that the referendum is not a vote on whether we should have a European Community — but on what kind of European Community it should be.

Whatever the result, France will continue to build Europe because Europe cannot be built without France. But is it to be a Europe des Bureaux? Or a Europe des Patries? The Europe of Delors? Or the Europe of De Gaulle? If I were a Frenchwoman, I would rally to the General's standard and cry: “Vive L'Europe Libre!” .



If ever there was an apt description of what is happening in the UK and Europe, there it is. She predicted the rise of alienated exremist parties, and "Europe des Delors".

Hindsight is easy, foresight is brilliant.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 30 2019, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

The tour game against Derbyshire started well, knocking the locals off for 172.
Neser and Starc among the wickets.We started batting well with Khawaja and Harris racking up a100 opening stand before Harris got run out.
So who comes in next??
Not Smith, who needs some practicie ducking, not Wade who just needs some practice, not Labuschagne who has had plenty of practice batting recently.
No they send in Mitchell Marsh.
Can only see the Langer hand at play here, must think because Stokes played a one man band role for England, Marsh can do the same.
Nuts.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 04:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Thanks for the original; headsup, bought at 2.15, so happy so far.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Oz only have them selves to blame.
Harris dropped a chance at deep square leg, difficult, but still a chance.
Lyon failed to get a hand on another one that went for four.
Paine wasted the second review on an LBW appeal that was clearly pitching outside leg.
If they had not done so, the review would most deffinately have been the end.
Yes it was an ordinary decision to give not out.
Lyon also fluffed the run out chance the ball before the non LBW.
You need luck in test cricket.
Stokes had his fair share, lots of plays and misses, a fairly plumb LBW turned down, and some very close runouts he got away with.
But he also played some amazing shots,and although it gave me a sick feeling in my guts as it unfolded, I had to admire the bloke.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I wasn't sure whether I should put this in the news section or the gold section, but as I have already fluffed a lot about gold, I decided on the former.

QUOTE
As the Federal Government moves to ban cash transactions above $10,000, there's a theory gaining traction that the real motive for the cash ban isn't the so-called "black economy", but rather, to give authorities greater control over your behaviour during recessions.

$10,000 cash ban on the cards

Paying more than $10,000 in cash could make you a criminal under proposed law
This theory, put forward by economists such as John Adams — and picked up by some federal politicians — has not been plucked out of thin air.

It is based on repeated public papers and statements by the international body in charge of financial stability — the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF).

A recent IMF blog entitled "Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work", explains its motive in wanting negative interest rates — a situation where instead of receiving money on deposits, depositors must pay regularly to keep their money with the bank.

As the blog notes, during the global financial crisis central banks reduced interest rates.

Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries, and "while the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable".

"Severe recessions have historically required 3 to 6 percentage points cut in policy rates," the IMF blog observed.

"If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond."

The article then goes on to explain that to "get around this problem", a recent IMF staff study looked at how it could bring in a system that would make deeply negative interest rates "a feasible option".

The answer, it said, is to phase out cash.

Cash acts as an 'interest rate floor'
When cash is available, cutting interest rates into negative territory becomes impossible.

We are being pushed into a cashless world

The RBA says cash will become a niche payment sooner than we think, as the Government considers imposing tougher penalties on cash economy activity.
Cash acts as "an interest rate floor" as people hold cash when bank deposit interest rates are at zero.

The thought of paying the major banks to hold your money isn't one that most consumers would jump at.

The alternative — as risky as it may be — is hoarding cash, or making investments in tangible commodities like gold.

So, the end game, the article explains, is the IMF's ideal world — one without cash.

"Without cash, depositors would have to pay the negative interest rate to keep their money with the bank, making consumption and investment more attractive," it said.

This, would "jolt lending, boost demand, and stimulate the economy".

In other words, the central banks get greater control to influence your behaviour and economic outcomes.

For those who have faith in monetary policy and central banks, this is no problem.

But one year on from the banking royal commission, faith in our financial institutions — and the regulators who failed to police the banks' bad behaviour — isn't exactly at an all-time high.

Negative interest rates could affect Australia
This weird world where savers are penalised — and borrowers get paid — is no longer just a problem for central banks in Europe and Japan.

Australia joins low rate club

With the cash rate down to a fresh low of 1 per cent, Australia has entered what's been dubbed the "era of irrationality, impotence and inequality".
The Reserve Bank's consecutive interest rate cuts in June and July have taken the cash rate to an historical low at just 1 per cent.

Put this together with Governor Philip Lowe's comment on August 9 at a parliamentary hearing.

He was asked by Labor's Andrew Leigh what work the Reserve Bank has done on what "unconventional monetary policy" might look like as Australia heads towards the zero lower bound of interest rates.

Dr Lowe answered: "I think it's unlikely, but it is possible. We are prepared to do unconventional things if the circumstances warranted it."

In answering some other questions Dr Leigh threw his way, Dr Lowe also noted that "monetary policy is less effective than it used to be".

"Once upon a time, when we lowered interest rates people were very quick to run off to the bank to borrow more to spend," he said.

"In today's environment people don't run off to the bank to borrow more when interest rates fall; they are more likely to pay back their mortgage more quickly."

Dr Lowe also noted international political tensions are weakening the global outlook, "and it's very hard for central banks to completely offset that".

Phasing out cash to target Aussie 'national sport'
Now let's return to the problem of the 'black economy'.

Why we love cash so much

If cash is good enough for central banks and it's still popular with the public, will the Government's crackdown on large transactions work?
Australia is not standing alone in moving towards a cash limit.

A number of other countries have already imposed limits — France has banned cash transactions above 1,000 euros; Spain above 2,500 euros; Italy above 3,000 euros.

Also, in 2016 the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would end the production and issuance of its 500 euro note at the end of 2018.

As the ECB was implementing this change, the man who headed the Federal Government's Black Economy Taskforce — the late Michael Andrew (he died in June) — was undertaking the enormous task of pulling together an array of information about the scale of the illegal cash economy.

Mr Andrews has previously said that the biggest hurdle to tackling the black economy is cultural.

Australians, he said, viewed taking cash-only payments and not declaring it as "almost a national sport".

The taskforce went on to estimate the cost of the illegal cash economy could now be about 3 per cent of GDP — roughly $50 billion.

But, this figure, it said, was a qualitative estimate, based on a wide definition of what activities make up the black economy.

The $50 billion estimate included a host of activities including underpaying wages or paying for work cash-in-hand, under-reporting income, sham contracting, phoenixing, identity fraud, ABN and GST fraud, evasion of illicit tobacco, money laundering, unregulated gambling, criminal acts, counterfeit goods and illegal drugs.

More changes flagged under 'black economy' banner
The taskforce in its final report suggested that the ABS do proper modelling on the economic and social costs.

Proposal to fight black economy under fire

Experts have slammed a Treasury proposal to reverse the onus of proof for black economy crimes.
This work has not yet been done.

Yet the Government is moving ahead with proposed laws that could make people criminals — with the threat of two years in jail — for spending more than $10,000 in cash.

The politics will dictate whether and how quickly the Government can push its cash limit bill through, with One Nation already indicating it will not support the proposed law, but Labor saying it likely will.

Opposition assistant treasury spokesman Stephen Jones has also indicated that he wants to see the ban apply to Bitcoin — a move that would send the Bitcoin industry into disarray given its repeated public campaigns to invest in the digital currency to avoid the proposed cash ban.

But that's not all that is in store under the Government's 'fighting the black economy' banner.

Treasury is asking the public whether the Government should also change the law to reverse the onus of proof for "serious black economy offences" and give the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) even more powers to hunt down whomever it deems to be a 'black economy' criminal.

This proposal has already faced much criticism from tax experts and business lobbies that say such measures could adversely impact the rights of individuals and their liberties.


I see the removal of cash as inevitable for a variety of reasons.

1. Reduces the ability of criminals to hide transactions.
2.Reduces the ability of people to avoid transaction taxes and GST/VAT.
3. Makes bank branches redundant.
4. The Reserve actually loses money printing notes, minting coins etc., so would be a saving for them.
5. people can be tracked by their EFT transactons. Always good for authorities to be able to track their citizens.
6. No messy handling of germ filled cash by customers/employees.
7. Makes even more money for the banks.

Elderly folk who have always used cash will be up in arms.
Civil libertarians will be up in arms.
Bob Katter will be up in arms.

But as usual, they will be overidden.

The biggest problem I can see is how am I going to pay for fuel or a meal at the store in Camerons Corner. No phone reception out there to do your EFT.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Gold shot above 2300 AUD as the gold price jumped and AUD dropped below 0.67.
Question is, will the paper makers allow this to happen when the US market gets going tonight.
The Russians and Chinese have been buying physical for a few years.
Is this the time when they start the short queeze on PM's and kill off the paper traders once and for all??
Interesting Times.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 01:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

QUOTE
But that boy Stokes, jeez hes a fighter.
been their most consistent bowler , and probably their most reliable batsmen.
A real tough bugger.

Yep tough as nails. Great finish, oz had their chances and muffed them.
Great win by England , devastation for OZ. Will be hard for them to come back after this.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 05:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Trumps attack on Powell is misguided, but not for the reasons that he is Trump.
The US Fed has always done what it thinks is best for the big end of town.
Whether it thinks that by making the powerful and the wealthy(usually an intersecting set) even more powerful and wealthy, then some of the wealth (but never the power) t will trickle down to the less well off, or it just doesn't give a F$*^ about the folk below it is a moot point.
I am inclined to latter view.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Ha ha!
Don't think it would be capable of actually being filled with water.
The rear axle maxes out at a little under 2 tonne.
Payload is under a tonne.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Poms did pretty well last night.
Apart from the first 15 overs or so, they have looked pretty much at ease.
Plenty of plays and misses, but you need luck on these sort of pitches. The Ozzies had plenty when they were batting, but eventually ya luck just runs out.
Root has had his fair shre, but good players take advantage of their luck.
New ball due early tonight should decide things one way or another.
Was a bit disappointed with Lyon last night, bowled well, and beat the bat lots of times, but did not pose as many problems as I expected.
But that boy Stokes, jeez hes a fighter.
been their most consistent bowler , and probably their most reliable batsmen.
A real tough bugger.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Gold and Silver both shot up on Friday night (our time) as the latest rounds of trade wars spooked investors.
I would expect that the Oz goldies (and SVL) will have a big day Monday.
Another round of sharp rises, profit taking, and sharp falls awaits us.
Just keep em coming, at this rate I will have a Jacuzzi in my next Ram2500.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 24 2019, 08:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Well, it looked like a pleasant summers day on the TV. But it must have been a mistake.
Poms out for 60 odd.
Fantastic bowling by Hazlewood, and well backed up by Cummins and Pattinson.
And some excellent catching by Warner, though he blotted his copybook with another duck.
Surely now Kawaja will go onto the too unreliable list with Maxwell now.
Wade also skating on thin ice, though he does have a century this series.
Lead now 280 with four wickets to go.
Not a bad position to be in.
With the good bounce Lyon gets, I reckon he will have a bit to say in second innings.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 04:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

As someone who lived in Tanzania for 18 months, and having already been burned once by Rift Valley Resources, I would be extremely reluctant to place any of my hard earned into that country.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Well done sir.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

Yep, seems the weather is crappy when OZ bat only.
Sun will shine and the ball will be ramrod straight when it resumes tonigh for the Poms to bat.
Oz will have to bowl exceedingly well.
Did enjoy the replay of the WACA test from a few years ago when Smith got his first century in OZ.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,041

I bet none of them have ever heard of HGTTG, much less read it!.
I doubt they would understand irony.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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