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ABS Employment figures., Discussion of ABS Statistics
nipper
post Posted: Aug 31 2017, 11:37 AM
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between May 2000 and May 2017 the Australian economy added 3.4 million jobs in net terms. This equates to an annual average of 200,000 jobs over 17 years comprised almost equally of full-time and part-time jobs.

But there is so much more to this dataset than mere growth rates. Of the 19 sectors comprising the economy three recorded a net contraction in employment — namely agriculture down 128,000 jobs, manufacturing down 123,000 and wholesale down 42,000.

In aggregate terms the Australian economy lost 294,000 jobs but gained 3.6 million jobs with most net growth being in healthcare, up 735,000 jobs, professional services, up 460,000, and construction up 414,000.
Bernard Salt... http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/o...b0be638431a7ba1



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 31 2017, 11:35 AM
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X2



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 17 2017, 09:43 AM
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The gig economy

It's the biggest story in employment, transforming our definition of what a job is and raising questions about where the power lies
QUOTE
....Exactly how many Australians are working [in the 'informal' economy] is hard to quantify because the nature of the work is so fluid. More important is the rate of its growth, and the impact it is having on wages, conditions and the broader economy.

"We urgently need to get a handle on how much is being done in the gig economy and by whom," says Professor Andrew Stewart from the University of Adelaide's law department. "There's a potential for platform-based work to increase significantly, and if you have 20, 30 or 40 per cent of work falling outside the system, there are huge repercussions for superannuation, wages, and occupational health and safety."

While authorities try to take its measure, there are intriguing elements of the online gig economy that only become apparent when you use these platforms. They operate as much more than a job market. People are using them to recruit staff, to test staffing requirements, to get work experience, to lift their skills level, to find clients and to test business ideas. They are a business tool for nimble times. A Grattan Institute report of last year estimated 80,000 people regularly get work via platforms. But if you include all people with a number of jobs, the figure is closer to 700,000 – or 5 per cent of workers.

The ABS has been criticised for missing this part of the workforce. It measures someone working 38 hours a week as a full-timer, for example, even if that person is working three or four jobs to achieve those hours. But two years ago it started asking people how many jobs they worked in the previous week.

In the past two years, the number of people who say they worked two jobs jumped 36 per cent to 600,000 and the number who worked three jobs rocketed 50 per cent to 52,000. These are still relatively low numbers, but the growth has been enough to create a boom in online jobs platforms and to suggest that this is the beginning of a major shift in the workplace.

The biggest platforms for low-skilled jobs include Airtasker, Ozlance, Workible, Gumtree, Upwork, Fiverr and Guru. In transport, there are food delivery services such as Deliveroo (see story page 8) and Foodora, Uber (with 20,000 drivers on the books), and bicycle couriers such as Sherpa and Cargone. Further up the chain there are Freelancer, Expert360, Amazon's Mechanical Turk and a raft of new legal services platforms.

The profiles of those seeking odd jobs are predictable. They are mostly students, middle-aged people trying to smooth their incomes, and semi-retired people with skills but no employment prospects. Broadly, they are the underemployed.

The surprise is the sort of jobs that are posted. Apart from handyman work, gardening, trades, driving and the inevitable IKEA assembly jobs, there are jobs that could only be described as stuff-my-partner-won't-do. Among those that popped up on Airtasker over a week: remove a spider, take photos of the moment I propose marriage, pick up a person and a dog from a pool, buy hardware from Bunnings and deliver to home, make a wake-up call every morning with a motivational quote, kill a rat, transcribe an interview, fill in online forms, give advice on NDIS funding, sort my tax receipts, and pick up sex toys and deliver to a city hotel.

Tim Fung, founder and CEO of Airtasker,confirms that people are proving endlessly inventive in creating jobs, but more importantly, he says, "the majority of jobs are new jobs. Unlike Uber, which predominantly takes taxi jobs, we are creating new jobs that wouldn't have existed outside of this platform. In fact, our biggest competitor is not other trades, it's apathy"............
http://specialreports.theaustralian.com.au/727000/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
arty
post Posted: Oct 21 2016, 10:48 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Oct 21 2016, 09:34 AM

QUOTE
It could provide far more accurate data than the ABS.
But I guess then an army of ABS employees might be looking for work.

That might actually be a good thing ... provided that the lipopygian upper brass would form the bulk of those looking for another job. Unfortunately, that's unlikely.
On the issue of accuracy, I doubt our Gov'mint is all that interested in providing accurate information. They much rather dish up cooked "data du jour" that have been seasoned and adjusted as needed for the daily flavour. ... or hide facts altogether, threatening anyone who knows better and feels tempted to blow the whistle.



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
early birds
post Posted: Oct 21 2016, 09:48 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Oct 21 2016, 09:34 AM

But I guess then an army of ABS employees might be looking for work.
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haha lmaosmiley.gif
now you talking Mick!! these obstacle is everywhere that block the people try to do the right thing these days. thumbdown.gif
selfishness is human nature, no one in this plant can kill it i guess!.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Oct 21 2016, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE
However, other analysts doubt the veracity of the numbers, given the problems the ABS has had with its employment data over the past couple of years.

"The numbers are rubbish. No one is going to believe these numbers," TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific research Annette Beacher told Reuters.

"The massive shifts in full-time/part-time is very easy to discount. It's the sort of irregularities seen in recent months."

Unemployment data explained


ABC business reporter Michael Janda explains how the jobs data are calculated and what to look for in the figures.
The bureau's employment figures are based on a survey of 26,000 households each month, a number which has been reduced due to budget pressures.

The sample is gradually rotated to ensure new households are interviewed and that the survey closely reflects the population's make-up.

Some economists were warning of volatility in the September data because it was a rotation month, however most of those expected it to skew the number upwards.

"The ABS stated that it has altered the headline figure because the incoming rotation sample for Queensland was 'considerably different to the rest of the Queensland sample'," observed Paul Dales from Capital Economics.
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Given the fiasco of the Census, and recent questions over the accuracy of Labour statistics from the ABS, perhaps its time we looked at other methods.
The ABS figures are based on a survey, and like so many govt statistics, are "adjusted".

Perhaps looking at the actual statistics from the ATO might be a good start.

Every person working "should" be completing an ATO Tax File Declaration number to the ATO.
Employers send these details into the ATO, as well as a monthly payroll summary of the employees remuneration.
Why not extract the data from these figures??
The TFN form asks if employment is full time, part time, casual or part of a labour hire arrangement.
You could get accurate figures of how many new TFN's were added, and thus new employees not previously in the wokforce.
The termination payouts would show how many left the workforce.
You could get accurate numbers of employees who changed jobs.
You could get post code details on where job creation or job destruction is at its highest. (both from the employee home postcode and the employer postcode).
You could get average weekly earnings on a rolling monthly basis.
And there may be more I had not even thought of.
It could provide far more accurate data than the ABS.
But I guess then an army of ABS employees might be looking for work.

Mick




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