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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
nipper
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 09:00 AM
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Trump blinked
QUOTE
US stocks surged higher after the Trump administration said it would delay 10% tariffs on some Chinese products, including laptops and cell phones, driving a 4.2% rally in shares of iPhone maker Apple.

The yield on the US 10-year note rose 5 basis points to 1.70%. Oil surged near 5%.
- ASX futures up 48



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 12 2019, 06:58 PM
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It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now. You cannot solve the problems of debt with more debt. And central bankers, well-meaning and desperate as they might be to offset the damage caused by an erratic US president, can’t create real growth; they can only move money around. At some point, the markets and the real economy must converge.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=12082019

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looks so dark....mama bear ohmy.gif



 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 8 2019, 10:06 AM
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Big Money Starts to Dump Stocks That Pose Climate Risks
After years of meetings and shareholder resolutions, some funds are starting to simply divest from coal and oil stocks.

By Kelly Gilblom
August 7, 2019, 2:01 PM

QUOTE
Demand for thermal coal, the kind used to generate electricity, is declining in much of the world as governments seek to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Some asset managers are deciding it’s risky—for their clients and the planet—to keep shoveling capital into companies with environmentally unsustainable business strategies. This year almost every major public oil company faced at least one shareholder resolution about climate change. Those proposals won record support. (Michael R. Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, in June launched an effort to phase out every U.S. coal-fired power plant by 2030.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...e-climate-risks



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 6 2019, 11:52 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 6 2019, 11:20 AM

Comforting words?

QUOTE
Global Cross Asset Specialist for Fidelity International, Anthony Doyle, says on volatile days like today the market splits into 'fast money' and 'real money'. The 'fast money' is characterised as hedge funds, day traders, and algorithmic trading, and are often characterised by the use of leverage. Meanwhile, 'real money' is long-term investors like mutual funds, institutional investors, super funds, and those that need to do long-term liability matching like insurance companies, etc. This investor base does not use leverage.

"Leverage, by definition, magnifies market positions and hence any market moves," Mr Doyle says.

When markets get volatile the 'fast money' investors hit a pre-determined sell price, realise the loss, and sell out. This means the market falls. They may start buying back in when they think the stock has stopped falling.
"'Real money' investors, on average, will sit on the sidelines, reassess their portfolios, and determine whether it is then appropriate to make any adjustments if their fundamental thesis has changed materially."
"Volatility is not a bad thing, as it can produce excellent opportunities to enter into positions at attractive valuations," he adds.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 6 2019, 11:20 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 6 2019, 10:05 AM

Sector Heat Map - red, red, red!!
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Attached File  z13907c0azb16452607f6649daacc9d88d8d23ba34.png ( 11.65K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 6 2019, 10:05 AM
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Posts: 6,093
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QUOTE
Market snapshot at 7:50am (AEST):
ASX SPI futures -1.6pc at 6,460, ASX 200 (Monday's close) -1.9pc at 6,640
AUD: 67.97 US cents, 56.08 British pence, 61.32 euro cents, 72.95 Japanese yen, $NZ1.04
US: Dow Jones -2.9pc at 25,718, S&P 500 -3pc at 2,845, Nasdaq -3.5pc at 7,726
Europe: FTSE 100 -2.5pc at 7,224, DAX -1.8pc at 11,659, CAC -2.2pc at 5,242, Euro Stoxx 500 -1.9pc at 3,311
Commodities: Brent crude -3pc at $US60.05/barrel, spot gold +1.6pc at $US1,464/ounce, iron ore -6.6pc at $US100.56/tonne

US markets panic on on trade war escalation
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2.9 per cent lower at 25,718.

At its worst point, earlier in the day, the Dow had plunged by more than 960 points.

The benchmark S&P 500 dropped 3 per cent to 2,845, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.5 per cent to 7,726.

US technology companies and banks were hit hardest, with Apple (-5.2pc) and Bank of America (-4.4pc) posting heavy losses.

It was a similar situation in European markets, with London's FTSE dropping 2.5 per cent and Germany's DAX losing 1.8 per cent

"Recent events suggest a US-China trade deal is unlikely to be reached any time soon and indeed it seems reasonable to expect trade tension to get worse before they get better," said NAB senior foreign exchange strategist Rodrigo Catril.

"Assuming Trump does not row back from new tariffs ... [a] lower Australian and New Zealand dollar forecast is warranted."

ASX to fall sharply, Aussie dollar nears decade lows
The global sell-off will spread to the Australian share market when it opens.

ASX futures indicate the local market is set to fall by a steep 1.5 per cent in early trade.

The Australian dollar, meanwhile, had slipped further (-0.6pc) to 67.57 US cents by 7:30am (AEST), within a whisker of its decade low of 67.41 US cents set in a flash crash earlier this year on January 3.

But its steepest falls were against the European and Japanese currencies — down 1.1 per cent to 71.7 yen, and dropping by a sharper 1.3 per cent to 60.35 euro cents.

On the flipside, the Australian dollar has risen strongly (+1.3pc) against the devalued Chinese currency, and is buying 4.78 yuan.

In local economic news, the Reserve Bank will meet today to discuss the latest risks to the economy.

The RBA is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 2.30pm (AEST), having already cut rates to historic lows twice in the last two months.

Trade war hits commodity prices
Worries about a slowdown in global growth due to an extended trade conflict also hurt oil prices.

Brent crude futures dropped by $US1.84, or 3 per cent, to $US60.05 per barrel.

"The escalation in the US-China trade is another negative for the oil demand outlook, as the fallout from the spat continues to greatly impact the Asian economic region, which is key to the oil demand outlook," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Management.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-06/dow-...flares/11386148



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


early birds
post Posted: Aug 6 2019, 09:45 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/former-fed-...-wsj-op-ed.html

We are united in the conviction that the Fed and its chair must be permitted to act independently and in the best interests of the economy, free of short-term political pressures and, in particular, without the threat of removal or demotion of Fed leaders for political reasons,” stated the piece, signed by Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

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lmaosmiley.gif , is it useful??

 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 5 2019, 03:23 PM
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Asia stocks hit six-month low as investors flee to safety, yuan slumps
Swati Pandey, Wayne Cole
5 MIN READ

QUOTE
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares suffered their steepest daily drop in nine months on Monday, as Sino-U.S. trade friction sent the yuan slumping to a more than decade trough and stampeded investors into safe harbors including the yen, bonds and gold.


QUOTE
Asian share markets were a sea of red with Japan's Nikkei .N225 shedding 2.3% to the lowest since early June. It was the sharpest daily drop since March and led Japanese officials to call a special meeting to discuss market turmoil.

Australian shares slipped about 1.5% to spend their fourth straight session in the red, and South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 tumbled 2.1% to hit its lowest since December 2016.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan sank 2.2% to depths not seen since late January.In China, the blue-chip index .CSI300 fell 1% while the troubled Hong Kong market .HSI hit a seven-month trough.

The pain was quick to spread, with futures for the S&P500 ESc1, the FTSE FFIc1 and EUROSTOXX STXEc1 all down more than 1%.

Oil prices were dragged down on demand worries, while gold climbed 0.8% to $1,452.17 an ounce.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m...s-idUSKCN1UV028



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 5 2019, 02:51 PM
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Posts: 6,093
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Bond Market Anomaly Creeping Into Japan as Curve Set to Invert
By Masaki Kondo and Chikafumi Hodo
August 5, 2019, 8:11 AM GMT+10

QUOTE
The country’s benchmark 10-year yield is on track to fall below its two-year equivalent for the first time since the collapse of the Japanese economic bubble in 1991. Known as an inverted yield curve, longer-term yields below shorter ones are unusual in developed markets and often interpreted as a harbinger of recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...e-set-to-invert?
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 1 2019, 08:17 PM
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Posts: 5,847
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Aug 1 2019, 06:41 PM

Mick, the entire current situation seems a "little odd". All assumptions are out the window.

"Manage the risk and the returns will look after themselves."



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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