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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
nipper
post Posted: Mar 14 2019, 04:31 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 14 2019, 02:30 PM

There's been a flurry of articles about this per capita recession because we haven't had the more traditional one for a while (Australia being a "miracle of the developed world"!) . Thanks for posting that, blackie; I think the novelty will be forgotten when a "real one" rolls through. Sometime soon, according to my bunion.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 14 2019, 02:30 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Mar 14 2019, 02:02 PM

According to The Kouk
QUOTE
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk
Mar 8
I understand it's hard for some economic traditionalists & conservatives to embrace the "per capita recession", but as a measure of individual living standards, per capita GDP growth is superior to headline GDP growth. When per capita GDP falls for 2 quarters, it's a bad thing


extract from Business Insider article
A history of recessions around the world, in one chart
QUOTE
Have you ever wondered how your country compares to others in terms of economic growth? Look no further.

Courtesy of Paul Bloxham, chief Australia and New Zealand economist at HSBC, here’s a fascinating chart showing the GDP growth performance of various major nations all the way back to 1960.

(see link for graph)

It’s a beauty, right?

For clarity purposes, the areas of red indicate when a country has experienced a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP.

While periods of growth — shown in green — have dominated, each individual nation has a widely differing fortunes over that period — some have enjoyed long periods of uninterrupted growth while others have fallen into recession on a regular basis.

In particular, there is a smattering of red around 2008 and 2009, indicating just how severe the Global Financial Crisis was on broader economic conditions.

Some have recovered from that period of turbulence while others are still grappling with the fallout, even close to a decade after it hit.


QUOTE
Bloxham says that if GDP were measures on a per capita basis — the output of each citizen on average — Australia would have fallen into a technical recession during the GFC.

“If recessions were defined on the basis of per capita GDP, rather than overall GDP growth, Australia would not have had such a long boom,” he says.

He adds that using real GDP to garner the success of an economy is also fraught with danger, admitting that GDP is a limited measure of overall welfare of citizens.

Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/recessio...ZvK69rB1Vzpk.99



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 14 2019, 02:02 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 13 2019, 08:59 PM

QUOTE
We recently learned that Australia might be in a per-capita recession, which is why each Australian household is finding it so tough at the moment. Inflation and wages growth are making things difficult, although the total GDP of Australia is still growing.



Since when has this metric meant anything?
I did a quick google search, and apart from one mention of South Africa, could not find many references to anywhere else but OZ.
The last time OZ had a per capita recession was in 2006 in the height of a mining boom, with budget surpluses, impending tax cuts and nil debt.
Wish we could go back to those halcyon days of percapita recession.

Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Mar 13 2019, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE
We recently learned that Australia might be in a per-capita recession, which is why each Australian household is finding it so tough at the moment. Inflation and wages growth are making things difficult, although the total GDP of Australia is still growing.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), household lending dropped by 2.4% in January 2019.

Credit growth is a key statistic that drives the economy, led by Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

Every dollar that is spent in the economy usually goes round and round to other businesses and individuals. A fall in lending potentially signals a fall in spending and economic activity, which could mean a drop in GDP.

Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK), JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) and Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) are just some of the consumer-facing ASX businesses to report that their stores are showing a slowdown of same store sales.

Of course, a single month of declines of household lending doesn’t necessarily mean anything. February could show growth.

Lending to businesses jumped 10.8%, which is a good sign that the major banks of relaxed their rules a little bit. The ANZ CEO in-particular said that his bank had perhaps been a bit too stringent.....
.. resources uplift? infrastructure spending? Interest rate drops?
.. WHAT WILL SAVE US?
(Apart from nebulous ambiguous waffle)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 05:51 PM
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QUOTE
China's export effort appears to have finally cracked under sustained pressure from US tariffs and a slowdown in global trade
QUOTE


Key points:

China's trade surplus with the US halved as tougher tariffs took their toll
Weak imports point to a domestic economy cooling rapidly
China's appetite for iron ore hit a 10 month low
Exports in US dollar terms fell 20.7 per cent in February, far worse than a 5 per cent drop the market had forecast.

Imports fell by 5.2 per cent, which was also far weaker than expected.

The collapse in both domestic and external demand is bad news for Australian exporters relying on China, and the region, as their most lucrative source of income.

China's overall trade surplus for the month came to $US4.1 billion — wafer thin by its usual standards, and far narrower than the almost $US30 billion forecast.

The impact of US tariffs can be seen in the politically sensitive reading of the bilateral trade balance.

China's surplus with the US almost halved from $US27.3 billion in January to $US14.7 billion last month.

It is a sudden turnaround given data released by US customs earlier this week reported the deficit with China blew out by 19 per cent in December.

Overall, the US recorded a $US621 billion trade gap with China in 2018 — the largest since 2008.



Now thats interesting!
Mick



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Mork
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 04:26 PM
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With yesterday looking like some type of short term top, i've attached my medium term Elliot Wave count for the SPASX200.

Attached File  WaveABCDE.pdf ( 216.66K ) Number of downloads: 10


I believe we are in Wave D of a large ABCDE Wave that started in 2015.

Wave D should unfold as a simple abc correction similar to prior A B & C waves.

As best as i can tell wave b of D has not completed, so we can expect either a shallow pull back or a complete retrace back to the December 2018 lows. We should then go back above yesterdays high to complete wave b of D.

Five waves down for c will then complete the whole of wave D some time near the end of this year or earlier next year.

After wave D is complete we should see a final wave E to complete the whole sequence from the 2009 lows. I fully expect this Wave E to be large relative the current Wave D which would take the market to ATH around the 8,000 level sometime in 2021 - 23.

Incidentally the SP500 looks to be following a similar pattern so i can see it eventually getting to approx 3,400 in the 2021 - 23 timeframe.

I'll post an update when it looks like Wave D has completed.


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early birds
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 09:02 AM
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eory-is-garbage

BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said he’s not a proponent of modern monetary theory.

“That’s garbage,” Fink said in an interview with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “I’m a big believer that deficits do matter. I’m a big believer that deficits are going to be driving interest rates much higher and it could drive them to an unsustainable level. ”

=======================

i tent to agree with him. people need to understand what is the "live with your means" these days.




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nipper
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 11:03 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 7 2019, 10:43 AM

QUOTE
Camry in the coal mine
... it is very plausible that new car sales are an early warning sign of impending doom. Buying a brand new car is generally the biggest discretionary purchase a household makes.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:43 AM
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US trade deficit hits a 10-year high amid Donald Trump's trade war
By business reporter Stephanie Chalmers, wires
QUOTE
US stocks lost ground after the country's trade deficit widened in December and the shortfall with China worsened, despite US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

The trade deficit increased by nearly 19 per cent in December, leading to a $US621 billion gap for 2018 — the largest since 2008.

Despite Washington imposing tariffs on $US250 billion worth of Chinese goods, the goods deficit with China rose to all-time high last year.

"Perhaps Donald Trump will now discover that tweets and bluster alone won't dramatically shrink the trade deficit. The administration's fiscal policies have helped to boost the trade deficit," the Alliance for American Manufacturing president Scott Paul told Reuters.

Markets are struggling for direction as traders await any update on negotiations between the US and China on a trade agreement.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, its regular report on economic conditions.

The Fed said slowing global growth and the government shutdown weighed on the US economy at the start of the year but that it continued to grow.

However, the central bank said the manufacturing sector cited concerns about the trade tensions, including "weakening global demand, higher costs due to tariffs, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty".

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/us-t...ection=business

On the home front.......

Australia's GDP shows we're in a type of 'recession' and car dealers are bearing the brunt
By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated about 3 hours ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/car-...ection=business



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:36 AM
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Posts: 5,410
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People are struggling to define the New Normal. Probably because it's all abnormal, uncharted territory. Scary.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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