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Bonds, Bonds are king
nipper
post Posted: Feb 17 2021, 05:42 PM
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Bond markets are flashing red, triggering a sharp rise in yields, on growing fears that inflation could come roaring back and catch central banks by surprise, escalating to rapid rises in interest rates that the world is ill-prepared for.

Yields jumped on Wednesday, with the Australian government 10-year bond yield climbing almost 11 basis points , or 8 per cent, to almost 1.43 per cent. The spike followed a rally in the US Treasury market where yields hit 1.31 per cent. New Zealand 10-year yields are at 1.5 per cent, German bunds are at -0.35 percent.

....whilst the absolute numbers , in the 1's , 0's and even negatives, are exceedingly (unnaturally) low, it is the relative change, and speed or rate of any change, that causes the damage. These are 10 years , the benchmark!!!




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 31 2019, 09:01 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 4 2019, 08:16 AM

50-year Swiss bond yields have now risen to the salivating yield of minus .007% from minus 53 basis points


- and most yield curves no longer inverted (flat, but no longer doom-laden)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 08:16 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 30 2019, 07:33 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/03/stocks-rise...s-in-check.html

US 10 years yield -----2.102%
US 2 years yield-------1.885%

but 200 sma didn't hold stock market
wondering what if 10 years----2 years yield curve inverted ???? that gonna be really ugly i guess!!






















5

 
early birds
post Posted: May 30 2019, 07:33 PM
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US 10 years and 3months yield curve inverted last night---briefly.
but it is not a classic one, even it is acting as a warning shots...

people please focus on 10years/2yearsb curve. if this one inverted -----then RUN not WALK---for your lives IMHO

now US market is holding 200 sma. not so sure how long it can hold it through. see how it goes tonight!! blink.gif




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nipper
post Posted: May 30 2019, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE
the Australian 10-year government bond yield hit a record low on Wednesday of 1.48 per cent to briefly trade below the cash rate.
- so, does a negative yield curve matter, or mean anything, these days? Of course, the likelihood of RBA dropping cash rate next week is odds-on



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 15 2019, 12:30 PM
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The Republic of Austria has a bond maturing in 20 September 2117 with a yield of 1.55%.

Yes, that’s 98 years from now.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 


nipper
post Posted: Mar 25 2019, 05:16 PM
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10 year bonds hit 1.77% today. Record low.

Watch out!



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 5 2019, 12:22 PM
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A
QUOTE
Suncorp has unexpectedly declared a residential mortgage bond worth $120 million may not repay all investors.
- some defaults by underlying mortgages.... at least some of the assets in arrears. Not a good sign

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/f...560c6a8001f4602

Complex tranches of subordination. ...not for the faint hearted (or those looking at return but not risk)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 6 2017, 08:00 AM
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and the flow on effects?
QUOTE
Venezuelan bond prices slumped on Friday after President Nicolas Maduro signalled the cash-strapped country was looking to restructure and refinance its foreign debt, estimated to be about $US150 billion ($200 billion).

Investors – who have earned handsome returns in recent years by betting that Venezuela would continue to meet interest payments on its debt, despite its disastrous economic predicament – dumped bonds issued by Venezuela and its state-owned oil company after Maduro said he was calling a meeting of bondholders in Caracas to discuss a debt restructure. Venezuela's benchmark government bonds due in 2018 fell to 40¢ on the US dollar on Friday from 74¢ a day earlier.

Analysts says it's unlikely Venezuela will be able to reach a debt-restructuring arrangement because of US sanctions, introduced in August, that block US-regulated institutions and investors from buying new Venezuelan bonds, which would typically be issued as part of such a deal.

What's more, analysts say there will likely be tension between creditors, particularly since Venezuela's major allies, Russia and China, which have provided the embattled country with an estimated $US50 billion in oil-backed loans, are expected to jostle to ensure their loans are given priority in terms of repayment.

Without a debt restructure, the cash-strapped country will likely be plunged into a complicated and drawn-out default, that could be even more destabilising for financial markets than Argentina's $US80 billion debt crisis in 2001, which amounted to the biggest government default ever at the time.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/inve...t#ixzz4xb59M8XR



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Oct 13 2016, 06:54 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 13 2016, 10:46 AM

tongue.gif
nipper, have look at US 10y movement last week. it's yield from little over 1.5% to peaked near 1.8%,
i'm guilty to myself that i covered my shorts way too early{ soon it hit 1.7%}
use 1.6% as bench mark, i will short it if it's yield goes to 1.6% handle again. i doubt it aussie 10y yield can move that quick. that is why i think about that pair trade.
to me just short the crap out US 10y might be a really good trade{ safer and make good money}, untill it;s yield hit over 2%. lmaosmiley.gif





 
 


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