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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:31 AM
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Vaccination Rollouts Hit a Roadblock
The US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) sent out a recommendation to halt the use of J&J (Johnson and Johnson) vaccines due to six recipients of it, all women aged between 18 and 48, experienced a rare form of blood clot. The headline almost mirrors that of the AstraZeneca setback, and does bring into question if the US can maintain top spot on the vaccine rollout. That said, the FDA acknowledge the halt is only likely to last “a matter of days” although that hinges upon “what we learn over the next few days”.

Over the past few months there have been several occasions where the distribution of vaccinations has been halted, only to resume. The US is also using the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, and it’s also not impossible for J&J’s vaccines to return to the needles as quickly as they were withdrawn. So perhaps this is why markets are taking in it their stride. But, it could spell bad news for Europe which is already behind on its vaccination programme.

US CPI came in slightly above expectations. Yet as the Fed have made it crystal clear on numerous occasions that they won’t tighten policy on higher inflation, it was a downside surprise that was always more likely to provoke a market reaction.

The ASX 200 remains in a potential full-flag formation, which would be confirmed with a break above 7013 and bring 7100 into focus (ahead of its 7198 record high). If it retraces further, we’d still be keen to explore bullish opportunities above the 7900 – 7938 zone.

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DYOR AS ALWAYS!!



 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 12 2021, 07:46 PM
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In Reply To: henrietta's post @ Apr 12 2021, 07:00 PM

Yep. Covid 2.0 in India?
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Stock investors lose Rs 7 lakh crore in 15 minutes! What's spooking Dalal Street.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
henrietta
post Posted: Apr 12 2021, 07:00 PM
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Yikes, BSE down 3.3%.

Cheers
J



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"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 12 2021, 09:45 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 12 2021, 07:42 AM

https://www.longtermtrends.net/sp500-price-...iller-pe-ratio/

The price earnings ratio is calculated by dividing a company's stock price by it's earnings per share. In other words, the price earnings ratio shows what the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its current earnings. It is one of the most widely-used valuation metrics for stocks. The PE ratio of the S&P 500 divides the index (current market price) by the reported earnings of the trailing twelve months. In 2009 when earnings fell close to zero the ratio got out of whack. A solution to this phenomenon is to divide the price by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. In recent years, Yale professor Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has reintroduced this adjusted ratio to a wider audience of investors. The Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is illustrated below.

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hope you guys can open up the link,

so interesting of these charts, worth a good study !! imho




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nipper
post Posted: Apr 12 2021, 07:42 AM
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Several aspects of recovery are coming through

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Financing for earthmoving equipment has soared 133 per cent on last year while tractor financing is up 146 per cent and irrigation financing is up 217 per cent, NAB said.The bank said the upward swing is just the first leg of the spending spree underpinned by the expansion of the instant asset write off scheme that allows businesses with less than $5 billion in turnover to write off the full value of capital expenditure.

I was up in Wangaratta and Shepparton the other day and I visited a car dealership and there wasn't a single vehicle in the yard. It's the same with tractors, a NAB NAB regional and agribusiness executive said.


The exodus from the cities to the country will likewise continue according to the executive, who said many business owners with young families wanted to experience a different lifestyle.

"Previously everybody wanted to be along the coast and move to Coffs Harbour or Newcastle but now we are starting to see it inland.

NAB's lenders report clients in manufacturing are likewise gearing up for a big year ahead with an identical 130 per cent increase in financing. Demand for forklifts is up 216 per cent, while there are signs of life in the service industry as well, with financing for coffee machines up 155 per cent.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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plastic
post Posted: Apr 8 2021, 12:17 PM
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Selling begets selling. It starts with a drop and ends in a tsunami. As they say, sell in May. Could be a collapse instead.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/another-f...-academy-sports

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In the aftermath of the Archegos blow up, the biggest nightmare on Wall Street - where there is never just one cockroach - is that (many) more Archegos-style, highly levered "family office" blow ups are waiting just around the corner.





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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 


henrietta
post Posted: Apr 7 2021, 08:48 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 7 2021, 08:13 AM

Don't you just love the "forced to seek a government bailout" .

Hopefully the feds will tell them to p--- o--- .

Cheers
J



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"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 7 2021, 08:13 AM
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isn't it interesting that Credit Suisse can blow $4 billion on Archegos, a phantasm geared set of paper trades, and now
.
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Citibank’s London branch filed an application on Tuesday for “winding up in insolvency” in the NSW Supreme Court against GFG Alliance’s OneSteel Manufacturing, which operates the Whyalla Steelworks, and GFG’s Tahmoor Coal.

Citibank acts as trustee for some GFG invoices that were packaged into bonds by the collapsed firm Greensill Capital and held in four supply-chain funds managed by Credit Suisse, which is trying to recover billions of dollars for more than 1000 investors who sank money into them.
and then, umbrage, splutter, a suggestion : Whyalla Steelworks could be sold off or forced to seek a government bailout.
Same old game : Privitise gains, Socialise losses




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 6 2021, 09:05 AM
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It’s no wonder the Chinese stockmarket is among the worst performers globally at the moment, even though the economy recovered first from the pandemic and has been growing strongly now for the past 8 months.

The Chinese government is the source for most of the problems and weaknesses in the markets.

There’ve been constant attacks on businesses, including Alibaba founder Jack Ma, a stream of warnings from regulators and the central bank about debt, stockmarket volatility, property prices, loans and lately, a crackdown on pollution and capacity cuts in the huge steel industry.

Then there’s the attacks on democracy in Hong Kong and stepped-up pressure on Taiwan which the US has criticised several times and raised tensions.

It’s why the country’s senior stockmarket index, the CSI300 (which blends the top blue chips on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges) was actually 6 points lower on Friday than when it started 2021 and the Shanghai Composite has struggled to produce a rise of 0.3% in the same time.

These fears haven’t impacted the Hong Kong stockmarket where the Hang Seng index is up 6.3% so far this year.

By way of comparison the ASX 200 is up 3.9%, the Dow is up 8.3%, the S&P 500 is up 7% and the Nasdaq is up 4.6%.

That’s despite China being the only economy to experience positive growth in 2020 (the US economy shrank by 3.5%).

Now the US and Australian economies for instance seem to be enjoying stronger growth than China, judging by the sharp expansion mapped by the various surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity for March in China, the US and Australia.

The near constant warnings and attacks on business, markets, banks and others seem to have shattered confidence and adds to the campaign of intimidation that President Xi Jing Pi is using in Hong Kong, Taiwan, against countries like Australia and the UK and against western companies like H&M and Burberry for daring to criticise China’s treatment of the Uyghurs and the used of forced labour camps.

Last week saw a crackdown on the steel industry (see separate story) and on the same day as that was announced, China’s central bank warned of growing financial risks in the country that have accumulated over the years, as well as shocks from overseas uncertainties.

The detailed comments mark the latest warning from high-level officials in China in recent weeks about domestic market risks.

These risks include “oscillation” in the stock and fixed income markets and potential bond defaults in real estate companies, according to comments from Zou Lan, director of the People’s Bank of China’s financial markets department.

The detailed comments mark the latest warning from high-level officials in China in recent weeks about domestic market risks.

The coronavirus pandemic and high volatility in international capital flows have also shocked the Chinese financial markets, Zou told reporters.

“The stock, bond and commodities markets face oscillation risks,” he said, according to a translation of his Mandarin-language remarks by US financial news group, CNBC.

“A small number of large-scale enterprise groups are still in a period of risks being exposed, middle and low-quality enterprises still face financing difficulties, and the risk of default is rather high.”

Zou added that pressure from rising house prices in some “hot” cities is relatively large, and the potential of debt default and other risks among highly leveraged medium-sized and small real estate businesses is worth watching.

New home prices rose by their fastest rate in five months in February, according to Reuters and on the weekend the Financial Times reported small local banks and foreign banks were moving to restrain property lending as they react to the pressure from the central bank and banking regulators.

Reuters reported that People’s Bank of China officials told Thursday’s press conference that monetary policy would remain stable and supportive (That’s the usual mantra for China).

But there is clear evidence of the central bank slowly tightening monetary policy in recent months to try and slow lending for property transactions.

Reuters said that Zou did not give specific details on how the financial risks he mentioned would be addressed.

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nipper
post Posted: Apr 2 2021, 11:38 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 2 2021, 10:50 AM

talking about the present, the name of SoftBank comes up too frequently
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May 2019..... That was around the time Japan’s Softbank started pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into [the] global supply chain finance venture, Greensill Capital.


Greensill Capital has now collapsed ...

likely nice Mr Gupta will follow.

... what do all of these have in common? 1. Leverage , and 2. Opacity






--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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