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post Posted: May 12 2020, 09:37 AM
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In Reply To: doc-gt's post @ May 11 2020, 12:41 PM

company mentioned in this video

DNR capital love them

post Posted: May 11 2020, 12:41 PM
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Nanosonics share price keeps holding up - even rising, despite the following downside features:

- a PE ratio of > 150;
- a company outlook that is clouded by the impacts of Covid-19, whereby NAN sales staff are currently less able to focus hospital purchasing departments on the need for trophon disinfection of ultrasound equipment because of the obvious requirement to prioritise the sourcing and purchase of Covid-19 personal protective equipment;
- periodic revisions/delays to the timeline for the commercial release of Nanosonics next disinfection product.

So what's providing such a seemingly strong floor under the Nanosonics share price? It's currently hovering near the $7 per share mark.

Well, all I can think of is that investors, and particularly institutions are still "buying" the potential blockbuster story on Nanosonics next disinfection product to be commercialised, noting in particular that:

1) the current company timetable for release of the yet to be disclosed new product is FY21, (which could mean as soon as within the next two months); and,
2) both the Nanosonics CEO and Chairman have stated previously that the market for the new disinfection product could be as big or bigger than the market for the trophon product.

Several research reports including a very detailed research report by UBS in 2019 have speculated that the most likely focus of the new Nanosonics product will be on endoscope cleaning and disinfection or on automation of parts of the endoscope cleaning and disinfection process.

Endoscope cleaning and disinfection is currently a specialised, time consuming and manual task, the efficacy of which is complicated by the difficulty in determining whether endoscope lumens have been satisfactorily cleaned and disinfected. As a consequence, the process is highly reliant on judgements of the staff doing the cleaning/disinfecting. Those judgements can periodically be wrong with potentially catastrophic implications for cross contamination between patients requiring endoscopic procedures. So given the sheer global scale of endoscopic procedures, and the documented history of cross contamination issues that can be associated with current cleaning and disinfection regimes for endoscopic equipment, any product that improves efficacy, reliability and levels of automation in all or part of the endoscopic equipment cleaning and disinfection process is likely to be seen as a boon by medical practitioners using endoscopic equipment.

In recent times, Nanosonics subsidiary Saban Ventures has had 3 inter-related patent applications published which describe equipment, processes, inputs and other proprietary aspects of an automated endoscope cleaning invention.

Those patent applications are titled:
1) "Suspension Cleaning" (Patent application published on 20/6/20)
2) "Apparatus and Method for Cleaning a Medical Device" (Patent application published on 23/4/20)
3) "Endoscope Cleaning with Viscoelastic Liquid" (Patent application published on 23/4/20)

A few interesting bits and pieces that pique my interest in the possibility that the inventions/processes described in the links above may constitute the next product to be commercialised by Nanosonics are that:

1) Nanosonics has often stated that the next product to be commercialised won't be trophon technology related. In that regard the inventions/processes described in the links above are definitely not trophon technology related.
2). Two of the above three patent applications have only been published within the last 3 weeks, which indicates that the inventions/processes are about as contemporary as you can get.
3). A total of 15 Nanosonics staff have been engaged in aspects of one or more of the above linked inventions and processes, which is a very large R&D resource commitment for a company to outlay on anything other than something that is a serious candidate for product commercialisation.

Could be a bit of food for thought for anyone who shares an interest in Nanosonics.

post Posted: Sep 4 2019, 10:07 PM
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NAN is a mid-sized healthcare company that makes Trophon, a high-level sterilisation tool for sensitive medical instruments in hospitals and clinical practices.

NAN produced a strong result, outperforming market expectations with revenue up 39 per cent to $84.3 million and NPAT up about 92 per cent to $13. As a result, we noticed a marked improvement in full-year return on equity from 6.3 per cent to 13.3 per cent while net profit margins remained high at 15.8 per cent.

As is the norm, management did not provide any quantitative guidance. It does expect, however, 2020 growth in the North American installed base to echo the pace of this year with a target market share of 75 per cent for that division within three years. Positive commentary around the launch of a new product in 2020 also contributed to the bullish share price sentiment, though at current prices this is factored in.

Although non-executive director and chairman Maurie Stang has gradually sold his shares from 2015 to 2018, he (together with close family members) still holds a significant stake in the company and remains the third-largest shareholder.

General advice only. Elio D'Amato is executive director at Lincoln Indicators, a fund manager and creator of Stock Doctor.

"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
post Posted: Aug 27 2019, 01:40 PM
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Another solid (but not spectacular) result for NAN was released today. With the SP up 25% on the announcement, it seemed to me like time to sweep a few crumbs off the table.

I missed the investor conference call, but it seems like nothing new was announced in regard to the new disinfection product due for release by the end of the FY "subject to regulatory approval".

So, it would appear in the meantime that the market is quite happy to embrace stratospheric valuations for NAN based on maintenance of the current growth trajectory and an expectation that a new but unspecified product will cause sizeable ripples somewhere in the disinfection market during FY 2021.

post Posted: Jun 14 2019, 05:53 PM
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In Reply To: doc-gt's post @ Jun 14 2019, 04:52 PM

Looks like the bullish activity with NAN today relates to a feature article on the company and the CEO in the AFR (see: )

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
post Posted: Jun 14 2019, 04:52 PM
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NAN is up nearly 7% today on solid volume. It's not far away from the all time price highs which it set shortly after the release of the half yearly report in February.

Perhaps, a few of today's buyers are getting warm and fuzzy about the prospects for the second half, which concludes in a couple of weeks.

In any case, the second half will need to be an absolute cracker, and/or there will need to be some substantive news revealed in the Annual Report due in August about the much anticipated new disinfection product(s) if the current out-sized valuation is going to continue to be accepted by the market.


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post Posted: Mar 3 2019, 03:35 PM
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In Reply To: dr_dazmo's post @ Feb 5 2019, 08:09 AM

Hi dr daz

That was a very handy half year result from NAN. Certainly better than I had expected.

With a trailing PE ratio of nearly 200 a month before the half year results were announced, I think the SP would surely have withered if the NPAT expectations of analysts hadn't been well exceeded.

Interestingly, in the wake of the half year results, the full year NPAT forecasts from the four analysts who cover NAN remain quite conservative, which probably explains why the forward PE ratios for FY19 (that I derived from Friday's NAN closing price of 4.17 and the earnings forecasts of each of the four analysts) remain well over 100.

Bell Potter - 112
CGAU - 116
Morgans - 122
Wilsons - 136

I took a small amount off the table on the back of the half year earnings results and the consequent all time price highs, but still hold more than enough to be watching NAN with keen interest over the next 6 to 12 to 18 months.

This years AGM in November might be a good one to attend as the long awaited and much anticipated new (non-trophon related) disinfection product will be a maximum of 7 months away from being commercially released and by that time you would have to expect that the company would be just about ready to announce what the new product is. Otherwise, there would be a risk that a description of the product would simply seep out from third parties involved in some of the pre-release marketing activities.

If you look at Nanosonics patent library and net out trophon related patents(as the company has said the next disinfection product will not be trophon related), there's not too many new product candidates that seem to have "potential blockbuster" written over them, but there is one that causes me an itch that I find hard to scratch. I'll be interested to hear from you if you can spot it unprompted.

post Posted: Feb 5 2019, 08:09 AM
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In Reply To: doc-gt's post @ Feb 4 2019, 04:19 PM

Thanks Doc.Watching with interest.

Always remember the Golden Rule - Those with the Gold make the Rules!
post Posted: Feb 4 2019, 04:19 PM
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In Reply To: doc-gt's post @ Feb 1 2018, 09:21 AM

One year on and another half yearly report is almost due.

In the last 6 weeks, the SP has increased nearly 25% on solid volume, but on no news. And that's despite NAN remaining near the top 20 on Shortmans most shorted stocks list.

Makes me wonder whether the steady accumulators may know or be surmising something positive which is not yet "out there", and if so, whether that will become apparent from the half yearly report, CEO presentation, and subsequent conference call with investors and analysts.

post Posted: Feb 1 2018, 09:21 AM
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I understand that the NAN half yearly report will be released on Friday 23 February.

I'm expecting that the global installed base for trophon will have continued to expand at an exciting rate. However, I think two factors will have caused a temporary moderation in the rate of earnings growth:

1) R&D expenditure has been increased substantially to facilitate the commercial development of two new (but as yet unidentified) products.

2) The Managed Equipment Service (MES) model is being used in Britain to grow the installed trophon base in the face of major budgetary constraints for the NHS and the effect of this model on the NAN ledger is basically to recognise capital revenues incrementally over the life cycle of payments for trophon consumables, which means a possible revenue recognition lag will be in play in the short term.


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