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early birds
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/a...y_Sent=18092019

She said Chinese regulators had taken a "logical and sensible" approach to managing the country's infant formula market. lmaosmiley.gif

========================
Mick, do you believe what she said???????? i for one---am not!!!!

agree with you on this---------we only sell milk products, not golden goose. that is why we have FIRB at first place.....

short BAL now, risk 80 cents loss. if deal been rejected by FIRB then the shorts can reap few bucks reward. imho though

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Sep 16 2019, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/15/trump-says-...oil-supply.html

“There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification,” Trump said in a post on Twitter.

========================

lmaosmiley.gif keep the threat coming -----soon most of peoples will think he is just had BS big mouth and nothing else................
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 15 2019, 08:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

wandering ----what will happen to the market if USA leads the war against iran that start next week???? unsure.gif

only thing gonna jump up is OIL price next week. not so sure about other things.

try to be defensive is my view!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 11 2019, 03:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

hallelujah

ps.. i don't have religions.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

got a call for AUD/USD will rally to 0.6943 cps ish. not so sure it can get this high....but they had a call non the less.
just one of the ideas mick.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 10:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/us-nonfarm-...ugust-2019.html

The increase fell short of Wall Street estimates for 150,000, while the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, as expected. An alternative measure of the jobless rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, increased to 7.2% from 7% in July, due mainly to a 397,000 increase in those working part-time for economic reasons.

Wage growth remained solid, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% for the month and 3.2% over the year; both numbers were one-tenth of a percentage point better than expected.
============================

not sure how Fed to adjust the next rate cut---------- raise to the bottom from every major central banks.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/companies/sport/smith-s...20190906-p52oia

Smith's pressure-laden knock, which dragged his team from 2-28 to 8-438, was the third double-ton of his Test career.
===============================

when aussie need him, he usually steps up--------one of the best player i've seen. skill, mental ..... you name it!!

hope this team can bring the urn back to Australia this time. tongue.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Sep 5 2019, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/cars-bi...20190905-p52o4i

The 2020 Porsche Taycan represents the biggest investment Porsche has ever made in a new model, Zellmer said, incorporating funds from $US6.6 billion the company has devoted to making electric vehicles at a new factory in Stuttgart. It benefits from the additional $US2 billion that parent group Volkswagen spent to erect the Electrify American program, a VW subsidiary that owns and maintains a national network to charge electric vehicles. Roughly $US800 million of that sum will be used to build an electric network in California alone.

==================

as i point out long before ------------------ev tech wasn't a big issues for other car maker. the real issue is how Govt. to support ---how to charge the ev cars..............

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Sep 4 2019, 09:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

The drop deepened amid sluggishness among the Chinese mills responsible for producing more than half the world’s steel, and concerns over future demand
=================

world's steel production has been about 30% over supplied every year for many years by now. as housing boom nearly ended around world-----hmmm!!! have to reduce steel production i guess.
we see the ore price diving even without vale on line. am not bullish on ore going forward.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 30 2019, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

at what price level i can have another big bite again??
it's been good tp me so far. tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Aug 22 2019, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/iro...20190822-p52jix


Iron ore's stunning fall to earth accelerated this week - credit to BHP - with the spot price now having tumbled almost 30 per cent this month.

The spot price, as reported by Fastmarkets MB, tumbled 6.3 per cent to $US82.38 a tonne at its Wednesday setting. It ended July at $US117.15; that's a 29.6 per cent retreat.

The catalyst was BHP's warning of global economic headwinds.




The most-traded iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for January 2020 delivery, fell for a fifth session in a row on Wednesday, closing down 4.3 per cent at 589.50 yuan a tonne, its weakest finish since June 10. It slid as much as 5.4 per cent during the session.

The most-active coke contract, also with January 2020 expiry, dropped 1.1 per cent to 1963 yuan a tonne, its lowest close in nearly five months.

"(BHP's outlook) suggested the market could see considerable volatility in prices ahead as the market continues to adjust to supply disruptions," ANZ Research said in a note.
==============================

even out of biggest producer VALE , the ore still over supplied???? ohmy.gif emmmm interesting!! unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 16 2019, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

im my mind------ Khawaja never ready since he join the team. every time when Aussie need him to perform and he goes pissing himself. i meant EVERY TIME!!

someone once told me here that we can't find another one better than him in whole country. i'm not a cricket exp, but c'mon sure they can find someone to replace him. he had way too many opportunities!!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Aug 15 2019, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

asx200

short term support---------6425ish. if can't hold there then look at 6200ish
still it is in a uptrend.

too hard to call for US market. as they driven by irrational [greed and fears] these days. plus trump's tweets.... lmaosmiley.gif
but put a support for SPX .....near term 2806. not very accurate though.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 14 2019, 10:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-tr...w_theo_homepage

The U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, -4.62% traded above the 10-year note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -5.30% for the first time in over a decade early Wednesday, reinforcing recession worries.

-------------------------

as i did point out before 2 years /10 years------is the classic bench mark. so it's official , that economy gonna suffer big time months later. and markets gonna dive down first....


raise more cash !!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 14 2019, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/cen...20190813-p52gje

new direction, having so far focused on office and industrial assets, but, given Australia's aging population, Mr McBain was bullish about the sector.

"We were amazed by the healthcare REIT sector in America; it's the second biggest REIT sector and the fastest growing too, so we are raring to put some capital into that business," he said.

=====================================

aging population isn't just in Australia, it is a global phenomenon .... i always think this is the sector that has really good growth future----world wide...not just in Australia..IMHO

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 13 2019, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...y_Sent=13082019

I may eat Waygu beef everyday washed down with the finest shiraz but, if I really want my new home, I can make do on much more modest fare.

================================

how modest one can be??? skip freakfast, lunch. only have sandwich for dinner---------------healthy , lose weight , and can qualify for a home loan from WBC. lmaosmiley.gif
GOOD SOLUTION !!!!!

i guess ASIC went too far this time.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Aug 12 2019, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now. You cannot solve the problems of debt with more debt. And central bankers, well-meaning and desperate as they might be to offset the damage caused by an erratic US president, can’t create real growth; they can only move money around. At some point, the markets and the real economy must converge.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=12082019

==================================================
looks so dark....mama bear ohmy.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 7 2019, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/not-yet-ove...t-analysts.html

I’m not seeing major signs of capitulation just yet. Price action is being driven by news catalysts and while the move down has been short and volatility is extended to the upside, this isn’t quite the ‘blood in the streets’ type environment like we saw at the December 2018 low.”

========================================

hold little bit more cash.......................
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 6 2019, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/former-fed-...-wsj-op-ed.html

We are united in the conviction that the Fed and its chair must be permitted to act independently and in the best interests of the economy, free of short-term political pressures and, in particular, without the threat of removal or demotion of Fed leaders for political reasons,” stated the piece, signed by Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

==========================================

lmaosmiley.gif , is it useful??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 5 2019, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

two major support for the asx200 bulls

6500ish then, 6375ish.

for SPX ---2880 then 2825, is can't hold them this week, we have full bloom correction-----witch means over 10% or more index point drop.

world is full of uncertainties currently. keep some cash in hand will be handy....imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 5 2019, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

thought oil price would be way high than usd$55.30/b...............................
seems iran need to seizes more oil tanks.................... laugh.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 4 2019, 09:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/04/iran-seizes...te-tv-says.html


Most analysts maintain war in the Persian Gulf remains unlikely, but fear that with tensions so high and no diplomatic channel of communication, a mere miscalculation could set off a serious conflict.
======================

gulf war unlikely???????? WTF!!

what's the price of WTI on monday when the future market opens??
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/trump-china...status-quo.html

the trade war going to get worse as i said many times by now.
even on the TA point of view markets have good chance of a big pull back, judging last tow days candles .................
take good care people.....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/08/02/jap...aguered-nufarm/


News of the placement saw Nufarm shares jump 7% at the opening and they traded higher through the rest of the session to close up 3% at $5.03.


The preference shares may be exchanged for Nufarm shares at Sumitomo’s election any time after two years time at an exchange price of $5.85 for each Nufarm share.




interest rate on the prefs tell us how tough it was for Nufarm to raise new capital from local shareholders. Nufarm will pay an interest rate of 6% for the first year (nearly $6 million a year), and this jumps to 10% for the rest of the period ($9.7 million a year). Nufarm can buy back the prefs at face value plus any unpaid distributions.
=========================

i missed it , i were greed,y try to wait for under 4 bucks........ weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Aug 1 2019, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ni-easing-cycle

hope you guys lisren to Powell talk...... tongue.gif


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Aug 1 2019, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

nipper, seems market did that old trick-----sell on news. cool.gif

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/the-two-wor...al-markets.html

“I think by that it means he doesn’t necessarily mean more cuts are coming, maybe not necessarily one off but not indicative of more aggressive cuts,” said Ben Jeffery, a fixed income strategist at BMO

===================

to me ----why the heck cut it this time. f£$%%ing trumpie. you are a one term chairman anyway. let market have a good correction....at this level it need to be.. imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 31 2019, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

shooting wombat??? are they out of their fucking mind or what??? angry.gif
that freaking slow moving little lovely thing, how on earth anyone would target it??? and it is native animal as well!!
why the heck aussie authority allow this shooting club to operate ???
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 30 2019, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/stock-marke...d-rate-cut.html

Despite a healthy economy and an unemployment rate under 4%, investors widely expect the central bank to cut its benchmark lending rate for the first time since 2008 by 25 basis points. The Fed, which seeks to keep inflation around 2%, has had trouble sustaining price growth in recent months despite a healthy economy and low unemployment.
===========================

for US market..... sell on news?? i meant to say " soon Fed cut rate by 25 pips", sell into market!!?? unsure.gif

asx200---- cash market is 50 points over future market, not sure where it will go today.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 29 2019, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-wha...w_theo_homepage


The moral here is that central banks policy has its limits. Europe and Japan have some very serious structural and demographic issues that central-bank policy alone cannot solve. I am worried that trying to do too much QE will backfire in Europe and Japan as administering more monetary medicine on a sick patient after it has not yet worked is probably not the way to proceed. For the time being, the dollar is likely to remain strong and returns from U.S. financial markets, be it the S&P 500 SPX, +0.74% or the 10-year Treasury, should continue to be better than anything in Europe or Japan.

======================

don't where to put this article .........
shhhhsh, all biz school can close down as most of central banks doing the "race to the bottom" thing these days....so sad to see !!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 26 2019, 10:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

nothing new nipper...

we all biased , but most of us here have dignity .
as for the" pump and dump" ....is AFR clean????? lmaosmiley.gif

that's not the point, the point is hot copper become a threat to main medias like of AFR eg............ lmaosmiley.gif

we are living in digital world now. i for one is too old for the shit........... weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 26 2019, 09:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/hotcopper-s...20190725-p52ane

how ASX-listed sharemarket forum HotCopper was often used by "dark ops investor relations advisers and pump-and-dump operators" to promote stocks the posters had no intention of holding for long to unwary punters at the best possible price


HotCopper's investments to 1H19 were down 30 per cent. Perhaps it should have been going short ...

============================

ah---oh!!! competition heats up?????
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2019, 10:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

how fast RIO can make it's new find to production?? 1 year or two years??

unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2019, 10:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

will AMP go broke ????? or it's price to buy it now and wait for the turn or TA ???
unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 12 2019, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

you've got part of your wish Mick. sadsmiley02.gif

-----------------------------------------
https://au.yahoo.com/sports/cricket-world-c...-223036215.html

The Aussies were thoroughly outplayed at Edgbaston, beaten by eight wickets and completely blown off the park as England booked a date with New Zealand in Sunday's decider.

==================================

no matter what people says -----i reckon Steve is a top batsman . foo stop!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=05072019


They also claimed low rates are simply unfair. As of Tuesday, the Australian cash rate is at a record low 1 per cent and the Reserve Bank has agreed it could keep cutting "if needed".

==============================================

does it make sense ???? YES !! would RBA listen to him??? NO!!

IT IS A FASHION AROUND WORLD CENTRAL BANKS THESE DAYS!!!!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2019, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/forex-marke...n-in-focus.html


now, RBA did cuts , but AUD rallying. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2019, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/news/economy/another-rb...y_Sent=02072019

The Australian Financial Review Rich Lister and shopping centre billionaire Con Makris and the chief executive of the largest collection of convenience shopping centres in Australia Anthony Mellowes both said cutting rates would not send the right signal.

"It will panic the people," Mr Makris said.

"Consumers already know the economy is not good and they are going to keep trying to save and they won't go out and spend,'' he said.


They should be leaving them where they are for quite a while and then start moving them up very slowly."
==================

lmaosmiley.gif , everyone can see that rate cut at current rate level and time is not effective.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://au.yahoo.com/news/newspaper-cartoon...-234500072.html

A cartoonist in Canada says he was effectively fired after producing a controversial cartoon of US president Donald Trump which has been described as both “in poor taste” and “heartbreakingly accurate”


===============

hahahha lmaosmiley.gif
hey !!! where is the democracy???? emmmmm, more of damn---crazy under the Trumpie----------YOU ARE FIRED !!!!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...w-yield-reality

Yields on the nation’s 10-year government bonds hit an all-time low 1.26% last week

For a country that avoided the worst of the turmoil that followed the global financial crisis and the unprecedented quantitative easing by central banks from the U.S., Japan and Europe, Australia is now having to contend with a possible future inside that club. The speed of the market’s change has raised eyebrows.



“On the screen a minute ago, Aussie 10-year bond yields at 1.33? I mean, is that a typo?” Richard Yetsenga, chief economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney, quipped in a recent Bloomberg TV interview. “Even six months ago they were like 100 points higher.”

=================

typo????? lmaosmiley.gif it is a fashion that RBA followed other major central bank really late stage ...i'm afraid it might face out vary soon!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/30/dow-futures...re-tariffs.html

That surge came after stocks recovered in June from a torrid May performance. The Dow soared 7.2% in June, its biggest gain for that month since 1938. The S&P 500, meanwhile, jumped 7.9% for the month, marking its best June performance since 1955.

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose new levies on U.S. and Chinese goods after meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan on Saturday.

==================

is markets get too exited about this outcome???? unsure.gif the problem still not solved ---to me !! unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 30 2019, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/29/g20-summit-...-trade-war.html


if history is any guide to the future, the gentlemen’s agreement struck between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies over the weekend in Osaka offers no clear path to rolling back tariffs and ending a trade war that threatens to tip the global economy into recession.

“It’s a temporary timeout,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, told CNBC. “I don’t see any path to a deal and we’re stuck with 25% tariffs on $250 billion of goods.



Trump not to impose additional tariffs, warning that such a move could cost 2 million American jobs.

And while business groups Saturday welcomed the renewed talks, they made clear they’re still anxiously waiting for a final deal. According to Boockvar, there’s little reason to celebrate.

“If I’m a CEO, waiting on how this weekend was going to go, do I feel any better? If I’m in manufacturing, maybe I feel a touch better it’s not worse in the short term, but I still have to deal with this 25% tariff and the threat of more tariffs hanging over,” he said.


No substantive progress was announced on the main issues in the dispute,” Goldman Sachs made clear in a note published on Saturday


according to Boockvar, if Trump decides to make good on his threat and impose tariffs on China’s remaining $300 billion in exports to the United States, the impact could be devastating.

“You can guarantee a global recession,” he said
====================================================

still fighting..............no clearer sign for the markets. thumbdown.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/25/feds-powell...-interests.html

he emphasized that politics won’t be a consideration as the Fed is “grappling” with the idea of a rate cut.

“The Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures — what is often referred to as our ‘independence,’” Powell said in prepared remarks. “Congress chose to insulate the Fed this way because it had seen the damage that often arises when policy bends to short-term political interests. Central banks in major democracies around the world have similar independence.”

================

lmaosmiley.gif
seems Fed's rate cut isn't that certain now for the markets eh??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 25 2019, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/heres-wall-...-20-summit.html

“This is fluid; surprises are not ruled out.”

============================================
how many surprises we've had so far?????????????????? lmaosmiley.gif

strange world and stupid leaders plus silly central bankers we have these days. weirdsmiley.gif

read the link----it shows the "play book"

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/06/24/dia...fy-g20-meeting/

Analysts say we should watch for fund managers of all sizes and some companies trying to dress up their end of financial year, half year (interim) quarter and month figures by buying and selling shares to set market prices or stuffing their balance sheets with cash.

They are all old tricks and include companies delaying payments to the start of the 2019-20 financial year, or getting pre-payments into their accounts to boost liquidity and cash holdings at the end of the financial year, the quarter or half year.

Share trading this Thursday and Friday should see the share prices of quite a few companies move a touch oddly at times.

==================

ahhh---ha----that good old "window dressing" time lmaosmiley.gif

no shorts should be fired at asx200 this week. full stop!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=24062019


With interest rates going lower globally you really have to think about businesses that will survive in tougher times and you really need to start considering balance sheets," says Lopez.

"Domestically we are at a point in time – it's been 28 years since our last recession – and we are starting to see the economic data weaken quite materially, whether that's gross domestic product or our anaemic wage inflation," she says.
That's coincided with a very indebted consumer which is deleveraging. They are not consuming. And that has to play out. So, as we move into this easing cycle of rates, my view is that the impact won't be as great as in previous cycles."

Timing is always the critical question," says Lopez. "I have no idea about when things will start unravelling or if and when the recession or slowdown happens."
------------------------------------------------------------------------#

all with logic and rational then

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
She has invested in some lesser-known Australian tech names, including cinema software group Vista and Serko – which provides the technology platform for travel firms such as Flight Centre.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

economic 101-----------------if like she predicted ---recession or slow down whatever
first few sectors gonna get hit really hard are ----travelers , retailers eg?????????? unsure.gif

may be i'm too harsh,
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-ar...w_theo_homepage

We’re at 3.6% unemployment with a 105% debt-to-GDP ratio, and the Fed is signaling three rate cuts. The track record is clear: It’s not good news for the economy and ultimately not good news for stocks either.



Cutting rates again is making wealth inequality even greater, is again punishing savers, is again pushing wealth toward asset-class holders and again encouraging more debt accumulation. In short: Make the bubble even bigger.

Let’s do it all again, except it’s different this time. It’s worse. Much, much worse.

But no central banker will ever admit it.


At least for now. Central banks have once again set in motion an environment where all asset classes are inflating. Stocks, bonds, gold, crypto — you name it. Everything is appreciating. Growth may be slow, but assets are flying higher. Asset inflation without growth. We are the Federal Reserve. Always wrong about growth and inflation, but always easy on the money front.

============================

lmaosmiley.gif i do agree with this analysis and logic, but not so sure about selling everything now. seems mama bear come out from woods again!! lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-ar...w_theo_homepage

It’s worse. Much, much worse. What is? Everything, in terms of preparedness for the next U.S. recession.

Debt is higher than ever, be it corporate debt, government debt or global central banks’ balance sheets. Limited ammunition to deal with a new recession, wealth inequality, the social divisions and political extremes, and now trillion-dollar deficits — everything points to a more fragile system. On paper, low interest rates keep it all afloat, but the context is as ugly as it gets.

Here we are, with the great collapse unfolding in front of us. With Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement, we continued to witness an utter capitulation to market realities that are forcing central banks to commence new easing cycles. No, this is not a temporary rate-cut event they are promising; it’s a new cycle. The Federal Reserve offered a three-rate-cut outlook, which is precisely what markets had been pricing in. The Fed is bowing before market demands. Give us drugs. Yes, whatever you want, you got it.

=====================

it's really similar to me and a lot of others view. but the shit part is ----markets keeps going up and up.... so ironic weirdsmiley.gif

please, take bit of your time to read this link. worth your 10 minutes imho.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 11:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

“A limited war would likely push oil prices above $100 per barrel, while a major confrontation would likely drive prices above $150,” Rome said. But not all experts agree.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/heres-how-h...-with-iran.html

===============================

$57.25 for WTI might get it tonight or tomorrow . not sure after that on TA terms.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 10:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/19/fed-decisio...-unchanged.html

A divided Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates Wednesday and indicated formally that no cuts are coming in 2019. The decision came amid divisions over what is ahead and still leaves open the possibility that policy loosening could happen before the end of the year depending on how conditions unfold.

================

no cut , but jaw boning wink.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

i thought NAB'S yield is higher than ANZ's ----am i right??? unsure.gif

why the heck JPM didn't point out that?? because they've been shorting it ??? devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 10:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/ecb-preside...a-portugal.html

on Tuesday, saying that it could cut interest rates again or provide further asset purchases if inflation doesn’t reach its target.
==============

WYF ...soon all of them will run out of bullets i guess..
""" do whatever it takes""" ehhh?? lmaosmiley.gif

---------------------
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/trump-rips-...-for-years.html
-----------------------------

“They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others,” Trump said in a tweet, noting a weaker euro would make it “unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA.”
==================================

but market still rallying , they are not scared anymore from drump's tweets???? lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

asx200

looks really bullish as AUD keeps dropping
6600 seems won't stop it from rise further ........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

nipper
can we have a nib for VOC or wait for it to drop another 25%??? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

i had last little stake and set stops at 3.75. i guess the price rise on strait line is due to multiple reasons
one of them is the expectation of more rate cut to come, and peoples all chase yielding stocks TLS seems tick the box.

what about 4.25 Mick??

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/oil-jumps-m...lf-of-oman.html

Brent crude spiked 3% on Thursday morning on reports of tanker explosions in the Gulf of Oman.

==================

i just saw the rally in front my eyes, as i bought some WTI . didn't know the news untill now.
made good short term money though. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2019, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://au.yahoo.com/finance/news/analysts-...-015342616.html

This will have implications for S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) stocks. Those with large US dollar exposure will benefit from the weak exchange rate and they include the Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) share price and RESMED/IDR UNRESTR (ASX: RMD) share price, just to name a few.

On the flipside, those who sell locally and have US dollar costs could be disadvantaged. These include retailers like Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) – although they probably have more to worry about than the exchange rate – and Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (ASX: CCL).
===============

Mick
is this the main reason for BLD to rise last few weeks??? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2019, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/06/05/rba...new-record-low/


rate cuts have helped the economy rebalance after the end of the mining investment boom by supporting non-mining spending. If the cash rate was still 4.75% and mortgage rates 7.5% the economy would have long ago gone into recession.

the level of household debt is more than double that of household deposits, so the household sector is a net beneficiary of lower interest rates. The responsiveness to changes in spending power for a family with a mortgage is far greater than for retirees. And, even if many with a mortgage just let their debt get paid off faster in response to falling rates this provides an offset to the negative wealth effect of the fall in house prices

=======================

why the heck Australian have such high debt level at the first place???? BECAUSE of we have LOW interest rate for too freaking long!!!!!!!
only thing can blame for low interest is the -------globalization ------that create over supply with low price. imho


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2019, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

That’s an increase of more than 1.6 million barrels a day in the past 12 months. That rise came from shale increases from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

===========
Posted Nov 14 2018, 04:09 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/oil-markets...y-in-focus.html

Most analysts expect U.S. output to climb above 12 million bpd within the first half of 2019.

"This will, in our view, cap any upside above $85 per barrel (for oil prices)," said Jon Andersson, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management.

The surge in U.S. production is contributing to rising stockpiles.
=============

can't understand why the heck some major firm talking about usd$100/b not long ago??
a lot of people knows that when WTI over usd$55/b then most of US shale oil will make money hence the rig count will serge if oil stays above $55/b longer than two months
as the result----oil market washed with US shale oil now that whacked oil market . wink.gif
================================

i did this post last year. don't say people didn't get info about oil price here!! devilsmiley.gif

now, usd$50/b is the level that will set a lot of these shale producer decision . if oil price goes under 50 bucks then some of them can't make money, so they will reduce rigs........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2019, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/stan-drucke...hina-tweet.html

When the Trump tweet went out, I went from 93% invested to net flat and bought a bunch of Treasurys,” Druckenmiller said. “Not because I’m trying to make money, I just I don’t want to play in this environment.”

Trump “wants to run on tariffs. He thinks they are a winning formula in the swing states and the belligerent, sort of verbose pressure he’s putting — and the braggadocio toward China — he’s giving Xi Jinping no off-ramp to make a deal, ” the hedge fund manager added

================

we all know Soros have a good eye sigh . lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 09:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Mick
we all get these things wrong from time to time. but i can see your point this time as AUD keeps rally for two days before RBA cut the rate, and keeps upward after RBA did what market expecting them to do....

to me--------------------- RBA shouldn't cut it. but sydney and melbourne housing market down over 10% seems really spooked RBA ------

-what about housing affordability????? what can i say!!! i'm no body after all. sadsmiley02.gif
only can swearing----:"stupid RBA" !!!!! thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 08:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/03/stocks-rise...s-in-check.html

US 10 years yield -----2.102%
US 2 years yield-------1.885%

but 200 sma didn't hold stock market
wondering what if 10 years----2 years yield curve inverted ???? that gonna be really ugly i guess!!






















5
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-p...y_Sent=03062019


"We are still bearish on the Aussie dollar but this tempers it," Mr Been said.

"When you are a net receiver of funds you become more vulnerable, but our current account shows that we have become much more self sufficient in funding ourselves.

"So if the absence of a large current account deficit means that a low interest rate differential does not trigger material $A weakness, then that rate differential is more sustainable than in the past."

ANZ expects heightened volatility will still push the Australian dollar to US65¢ this year. It is currently trading at just over US69¢.

Citi analysts have noted that the average cumulative rate cut in the past four easing cycles in Australia has been 3 percentage points.
=================

unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

SL: (B) 2724.85 4 hours low volatility level
RL: (A) 2779.31 4 hours high volatility level
Target Period: 4 hours

Interval 1 hour
Length 24 Candles
Identified 01-Jun-06:00
================

SPX will test 2710ish then nest support is at 2635ish, then 2557, if these fib retrace can't hold this slide , then we look at at 2314---2450 ish support zone. if still can't hold there then we will have few years bear market waiting for us. that is all my TA. but IMHO .


asx200
we should see it test 6300ish soon if can't hold there then 6215---6275 support zone for short term. if all give away then look at 5950ish. imho.

DYOR as always!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 31 2019, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-sla...w_theo_homepage

"On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP,"

=================

SPX future dropped like a sack potatoes after this news.

now the 200 sma is give away, we have to look down as TA point it to go.......

asx200 to test 6300 rather really sooner imho. [even RBA CUT THE RATE]

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2019, 07:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

US 10 years and 3months yield curve inverted last night---briefly.
but it is not a classic one, even it is acting as a warning shots...

people please focus on 10years/2yearsb curve. if this one inverted -----then RUN not WALK---for your lives IMHO

now US market is holding 200 sma. not so sure how long it can hold it through. see how it goes tonight!! blink.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2019, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

seems it will be the biggest winner of this trade war....... lmaosmiley.gif

funny after people nearly forget this one and trump got it live again..........

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2019, 04:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/scary-patte...move-lower.html


The so-called head and shoulders pattern formed when the S&P 500 broke support at 2,800, and from there, analysts said it could lose another 5.4%. The S&P also fell below its 200-day moving average at 2,776, an important level of support and momentum indicator.

”...if the 2800 area breaks, it would confirm a head and shoulders top that suggests deeper downside risk to 2650, which is also the 50% retracement of the December to May rally,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch technical analysts wrote in a note. The top of the pattern would be the top of the head at 2,950, and 2,800 was considered the neckline.

===================

just food for thought.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2019, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

asx200 is at 6418

if 6375 didn't hold it then we look it down to 6300ish for really short term {few sessions},
keep the shorts and set stops at 6488 target it 6300 [ most likely will hit there in few sessions imho]

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2019, 02:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/jamie-dimon...investment.html

“I think trade is a real issue,” Dimon said Tuesday at a conference in New York. “Trade has gone from being a skirmish to being far more important than that. If this goes south in a bad way, and you have other surprises, that could be part of the thing that changes confidence, changes peoples’ willingness to invest.”
=============

blink.gif , market just realize it now?? thought they knew it long ago!! cool.gif


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 23 2019, 10:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

trish regan
i kinda remember she use to work at CNBC right??
now she talks like trump now. lmaosmiley.gif
to be fair -----USA printed greenback day and night for last 30 years or so, the value of the greenback backed by their military power and american living in heavens and doing nothing.
on the other hand----chinese steeling most of the industral produce rights from everyone around world, and use the dictatorship to take advantage from capitalism to achieve their economic miracles

now they both want a fight. end game is-------no good for everyone!! imho

funny to see trish go wild lmaosmiley.gif . she representing a lot american i guess..

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 22 2019, 08:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

i laughed so much----in freaking tears..hahaha lmaosmiley.gif

http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2019/05/21/8332242.html

hi triage, this is real Mao era's song they just changed words to "trade war"#
f$%^ing stupid trump he pushed chinese insane as well!!! hahahahhahah

triage ....now this is real "10 years culture revolution" stuff. no kidding!!

seems this trade war turn for the worse case..

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 22 2019, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

asx200 at 6500
time to to have a little rest . the cheering for Scotty will be over ---either this session or tomorrow. imho

took a shorts at 6500 myself. aim it down to 6400ish within weeks.. just for a trade. for longer term investors the bullish trend for asx200 is well intact .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2019, 04:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...521-p51pmd.html

He said there were a range of options to help cut the jobless rate.

"These include: further monetary easing; additional fiscal support, including through spending on infrastructure; and structural policies that support firms expanding, investing and employing people," he said.

==============

shorted AUD again. see what's happen.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2019, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

don't get it!! RBA still consider a rate cut by next meeting. are they out of their mind???

  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 20 2019, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

4 majors all jumped up for good old short squeeeeeezzzzzz

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2019, 08:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics...unts/ar-AABAFPP

a spokeswoman for the Trump Organization, the umbrella company for the Trump family’s many business interests, said: “We have no knowledge of any ‘flagged’ transactions with Deutsche Bank.” She said the Trump Organization currently has “no operating accounts with Deutsche Bank.” She did not respond when asked if other Trump entities had accounts.

===================

wondering why it's surface now?? didn't trump attack DBK not long ago?? pay back time eh??


--------------
Ms. McFadden disputed that. She said her superiors had reduced the number of transactions she was assigned to review after she voiced her concerns. She and the two former managers said they perceived her termination as an act of retaliation.

“They attempted to try to silence me,” she said. “I’m at peace because I know that I did the right thing.”
-----------------------

should get her back now , DBK need her....... lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2019, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/time...20190519-p51oz5

Australian dollar shorts are at risk of an imminent squeeze and should be closed out in the likely event that the currency appreciates against the greenback when trading resumes on Monday.

As the Coalition closes in on a win in the federal election on Saturday, this has presented a surprise scenario for foreign-exchange markets guided by earlier polls favouring a Labor victory.
======================

a short term pump up for AUD seems likely.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2019, 03:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...alia-s-election

The Stock Market Winners and Losers From Australia's Election

===============

major banks will be in for the pump, for short term.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2019, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-201...519-p51ova.html

Federal Election 2019 LIVE: Scott Morrison declares victory as Bill Shorten steps down as Labor leader

====================

all done and dusted now. i'm happy that i can playing fully franked divy game for another 4 years. tongue.gif
on ya Scotty!!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2019, 11:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/assessing-s...-195323646.html

Since 2016, the stock market has been grappling with a new risk: President Trump’s tweets. Yahoo Finance's Scott Gamm discusses how traders are tuning out the noise.
=============

lmaosmiley.gif , yeap....trump's tweets for traders.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2019, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

mick, not sure if you still hold shorts of AUD. i still have some.

if AUD doesn't hold current level, it rather will go down to 0.63ish quickly imho.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 16 2019, 10:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

TLS is approach my short term target 3.50.
if anyone hold the trade till now, might log in the profit.

longer term ---my target is 3.80ish.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 16 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/trump-admin...-trade-war.html

The Trump administration plans to delay auto tariffs by up to six months, stopping itself for now from widening global trade disputes, four sources told

===============

stupid trump------6 months??? everyone and their dogs know now that trump try to kick chinese first then turn the run to kick EU,
should delay for 6 year, that will get whole westen world help him contain china .
mad and silly----that's trump.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Start then with inflationary fire. Much of what is going on right now recalls the early 1970s: an amoral US president (then Richard Nixon) determined to achieve re-election, pressured the Federal Reserve chairman (then Arthur Burns) to deliver an economic boom.

He also launched a trade war, via devaluation and protection. A decade of global disorder ensued. This sounds rather familiar, does it not?
https://www.afr.com/news/economy/fire-or-ic...y_Sent=15052019


man oh man!! not feel good atm

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

so, banks not necessarily the bastards (just prudent)?

===========================================

ask RC . seems they have the answer you wanted nipper.
it is a chaotic world out there. i for one not gonna bet my bottom dollar on it----it's just too risky. unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential...y_Sent=15052019

Sydney developer Mark Bainey has pooled $50 million from wealthy investors to bulk buy newly-completed apartments at up to 30 per cent discounts as oversupply fears and high funding costs start to bite projects amid the weaker market conditions.

......

“We have been fielding approaches from concerned developers who have been unable to sell due to oversupply concerns in suburbs such as Epping, Parramatta, Mascot, Macquarie Park and Waterloo,” he said

....

Alongside apartment fires sales, developers are also coming under pressure to sell whole projects by their non-bank lenders.
===============================
i reckon it just start. the distress will run a lot deeper and further.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 15 2019, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

President Donald Trump said that he feels talks with China “are going to be very successful” as he confirmed he will meet President Xi Jingping at next month’s G-20 summit. His comments came after the U.S. Trade Representative’s office released the list of $300 billion of Chinese goods that are next in line for a 25% tariff while Beijing announced its own trade measures. Trump may be coming under pressure from inside the Republican party as the standoff is increasing pain for American farmers, among the president’s most loyal supporters. Markets are recovering some of the worst of yesterday’s sell-off as hopes of a deal linger

=============

"i have a feeling"---......wooojee mama!! keep your tweets coming!! lmaosmiley.gif WTF
soon he will be "martin luther king" if needed!!



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2019, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/trade-war-c...o-bully-it.html

“Negotiate, sure!”

“Fight, anytime!”

“Bully us, wishful thinking!”

===================================

oh yearh!!!!!! keep fighting---dictatorship vs mad man. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2019, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

tongue.gif
i can see how quiet those "chating sites" are when market drops big time.
it is good chance for investors like you nipper whom have supper longer term view.


for traders like me

asx200 have to hold 6175ish for short term [use 1 hour candles]. if not, then look down for short term.

spx 2788 is the key for bulls and bears to fight out for tonight.

keep eye on the news and market reaction, it is time for traders have a good focus and make few bucks here and there imho.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2019, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

it is normal for market goes up and down.
just hope that all the major central banks don't be overly lose this time, because money supply already reach the danger point of "hyper inflation".
if these bankers keep that lose policy for longer, we all will be screwed. and there is no way back.
reminds me how they start first world war. only this time they have nukes......... thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2019, 10:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ods-from-june-1

China says it will raise tariffs on part of $60 billion worth of U.S. goods from June 1, Bloomberg News reports. Some 2,493 goods will see levies raised to 25%, according to a statement on the Chinese government’s website.

==================

now we can expecting a full on trade war DO WE??????? devilsmiley.gif

keep fighting, it is good to everyone. lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2019, 09:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2019/05/13/8305560.html

hope you guys can get someone to translate it.
basicly it says " no trees grow to the sky" it is long and painful housing bear market with aussies.

well, we still have someone hold bullish view with our beloved housing market from those "housing gurus".
i'm in the bear camp/

.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2019, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/news/world/europe/the-s...y_Sent=13052019

And if any investors think Clark might change direction any time soon, think again. "If you talk to any manager," he says, "they always want to be bullish, and the classic line will be, 'There's always a bull market somewhere.' My observation is there's always a bear market somewhere."

=======================

one hell off shorter ----all or nothing. tip my hat off to him. hypocrite.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2019, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

U.S. Gives China a Month for Trade Deal as Talks Stay Deadlocked

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...stay-deadlocked
===========================================


on wall street ---they say " trump's tweet is worse than inside trading" i kinda agree with them. .......... lmaosmiley.gif .......... hay!! where is FBI???

====================

.... lmaosmiley.gif ........ WTF

we can through all the TA--FA , whatever A;s out of windows. just look at trumoie's tweeters. thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2019, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

TPG/VODAFONE merger been knocked back again. and TLS jumped back to 3.38

still hold mine, to face current uncertainty , better hold some defensive thingy than sorry imho.

to me TLS will hit 3.5 from TA point of view.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 9 2019, 09:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Friday tomorrow-----last date of trade talks between US and China

don't hold large position to it. long or short.
next Monday we will know all about it do we???? lmaosmiley.gif
on wall street ---they say " trump's tweet is worse than inside trading" i kinda agree with them. .......... lmaosmiley.gif .......... hay!! where is FBI???

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

saw a lot of small gold Co. went up as well. at least we see people start to do bit of hedging.

kinda amazing how people lost fears in market!! blink.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-bra...iff-threat.html

risk always there , don't understand as why the market goes up and up last few weeks .
now, seems everyone is heading to the exit door???

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

morning guys

i always worried about this could happen, and i this is what i wake up to this morning
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-bra...iff-threat.html

but from TA point of view there isn't end of world yet.
if bulls can hold s&p500 at 2870ish, then uptrend still intact for short term. if it gives away, then look down imho.

for our market asx200 would be nasty today i guess

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2019, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-bra...iff-threat.html

Mick
will see gold jump up with this news????
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 3 2019, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Australia's Huge Stock Rally Faces a Rude Awakening

Promises of easy monetary policy have sent Australia’s stocks soaring to the highest in more than a decade. But there’s a speed bump: Soft profit growth.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has eluded a weakening economy and a deepening housing slump to soar near levels not seen since before the global financial crisis. Speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates has helped drive the gauge up more than 12 percent this year, but results from Australia’s biggest banks and third-quarter trading updates could cause the nation’s stocks to sputter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia
==============

TA AND FA just not on the same page..... i'm really confused atm.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 2 2019, 05:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

if there is a bank for me to buy, it will be NAB. imho

their divy still better than ANZ and restructuring pain for NAB nearly over. only thing stopped me to buy it today, is that i think our property down term is far far from over. not sure why those "[rpperty guru" out in force again. unsure.gif don't think it is right time for them to ramping housing market again. anyway, it's just me nipper. i'm really bearish with housing market.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

From memory the construction sector employs about 9% of Australian workers s
====

yeah triage. you are right about that, and also Mick is right about infrastructure will try to hold sliding down housing market for aussie economy.

here is the thing i try to point out.
if our property market really have a nasty down turn like what Mag siad{ i really agree with him/her],, then it will spreading to other sectors likes of retailers eg...
also, Chinese Govt. is trying really hard to contain the money flow to other countries-----THEY TRY TO PLUG ALL THE LOO POLES AS THEY CAN. so there will be far less money from China to our housing market form now on.
a couple have salary about 130k/a owns 7 properties { all leveraged} dream of getting rich ---------not sure how they gonna deal with current situation . if they don't sell most of them now to take loss then banks will force them to do if housing market keeps down term at current pace. that will spill the disaster

a lot of Chinese still believe "getting rich by buying properties} i guess soon they will learn the lesson for their life ----IN A HARD WAY.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Walking away: Greenfield lot defaults hit 27 per cent in Melbourne

One in four new home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne is defaulting on their housing lot purchases due mainly to financing and valuation shortfalls, forcing developers to resell these lots in a market where monthly sales rates have hit seven-year lows, new figures show.
Victoria, the country's biggest greenfield land market, is at the epicentre of the surge in defaults, with its cancellation rate hitting 27 per cent in the first quarter of the year, up from a 12 per cent default rate in the December 2018 quarter and just a 2 per cent fallover rate a year prior, according to land consultancy Research4.

Alongside the surge in defaults, Research4 figures show that Melbourne lot sales tumbled to just 539 a month in the first quarter of the year, down from 2200 at the peak of the market in mid-2017.
Research4 director Colin Keane said a cancellation rate above 15 per cent was a "strong red flag" regarding the mindset of "home builders and households".

"The spike is being driven by the fact that people are not prepared to wait the average 15 months from contract signing to settlement, that contracts signed in mid-2018 are all overvalued by $35,000 to $45,000 and that it's hard getting a loan approved at an agreed value and on time," Mr Keane said.

He said some Melbourne buyers were walking away and forfeiting their deposits on lots purchased between March 2018 and March 2019 because they were better off resigning at a lower price supported by the current high-valued incentives that have swept through the market.

In NSW, the default rate more than doubled to 26 per cent in the March quarter, while in South East Queensland almost one in five lots sales are being cancelled with both markets experiencing much lower sales volumes.

The Research4 figures follow February warnings by developer Nigel Satterley that the Melbourne lot default rate was 20-25 per cent "at a minimum" and forecast a rapid fall in prices that is now occurring.

Mr Satterley, a Rich Lister whose Satterley Property Group accounts for about one in 10 lot sales in Melbourne, said speculators, including his Melbourne Uber taxi drivers who were pooling credit cards to buy lots, had fuelled the rampant price growth and surge in lot sales that occurred in 2017 and early 2018.

"We believe that over the next 30 months 5000 growth-area lots (about 165 lots a month) will return to the market, either by defaults or speculators having to resell their blocks immediately," Mr Satterley said in December.

The Research4 figures – based solely on cancelled lots being re-advertised by the respective project – show 201 Melbourne lots were cancelled per month in the first three months of the year, up from 127 per month in the December quarter.

Had Research4 included more than 1000 Melbourne lots listed privately on the Gumtree Index for nomination sale, the default rate would have been even higher.

"This scenario is Melbourne-centric and will play out right through this year and into 2021," he said.

Amid the weakening land market, incentives and resales have become two big features of the changing landscape.

In March, The Australian Financial Review reported Research4 figures showing the average incentive being offered in Melbourne was $12,800 with some as high as $45,000.

Some, like major developer Frasers, have invited buyers to negotiate prices on unsold projects, while in December Stockland, the country's biggest land developer, sold its prized The Grove Estate in Tarneit to Frasers for $202 million amid pressure to reduce its exposure to the Melbourne market.

Project marketer RPM Real Estate Group reported in February that more than a third of all Melbourne housing lots advertised online were resales by buyers who can't get financing or speculators trying to flip sites prior to settlement.

==================

looks really bleeding, but we still haven't see housing price crash down yet. when it dose it will be really ugly i guess.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 08:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

told these people there is danger for US and China go to physical war when i'm in shanghai, but no one ---NO ONE whom believe it will happen.
i just shake my head to them. not sure how these arrogant chinese mums and paps react when they seen this news. unsure.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 05:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

RBA weighs alternatives to a cut
There are several reasons why this more targeted approach to supporting the weakest component of the Australian economy may be preferred to an outright cut.

Industry participants believe the central bank and banking regulator are considering a targeted alternative to a cut to the official cash rate, which would involve lowering the minimum 7.25 per cent interest rate banks use when assessing a home loan borrower’s repayment capacity by 50 basis points to 6.75 per cent.

This would improve the average home buyer’s borrowing capacity by more than 5 per cent and increase demand in the weak housing market, which was a key driver of the low March quarter inflation numbers (newly built house price inflation declined by 0.2 per cent while rental inflation was very soft at 0.1 per cent).


In December 2014 the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) introduced the minimum 7 per cent interest rate on all home loan serviceability tests as a part of its suite of “macro-prudential” constraints to cool ebullient housing activity, which ultimately precipitated the correction that commenced in late 2017.

According to mortgage brokers, more than 90 per cent of banks apply a further 0.25 per cent buffer to this minimum benchmark.

With Australia’s 10-year government bond yield only 1.8 per cent, financial markets are not pricing in any material RBA rate hikes for a decade (this yield proxies the average RBA cash rate over the next 10 years plus a term premium to compensate for interest rate volatility).

The average discounted new home loan rate in Australia has been just 4.5 per cent since the RBA’s last interest rate cut in August 2016 with many borrowers paying as little as 3.4 per cent today.


A standard two percentage point buffer above contemporary discounted home loan rates implies that a prudent serviceability test could be carried out at a much lower 6 per cent level, well below the 7.25 per cent level assumed by most lenders.

Mortgage brokers say that reducing the minimum serviceability rate from 7.25 per cent to 6.75 per cent would boost the maximum borrowing capacity of a two-income household earning gross wages of $160,000 annually from $870,000 today to $915,000.


There are several reasons why this more targeted approach to supporting the weakest component of the Australian economy may be preferred to an outright cut to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate.

First, the federal budget is now in surplus on all key measures and there are good grounds for policymakers to assume that fiscal rather than monetary policy is better placed to provide any extra stimulus, especially when the latter is approaching its conventional limits. Inevitable pork-barrelling as part of the looming election further reinforces the case for the RBA to wait and see what role fiscal policy has to play.
Second, commodity prices remain very high, and notably above Treasury’s conservative budget assumptions, which means the budget will likely continue to deliver larger surpluses than are presently expected.
Third, recent economic data out of the US has surprised on the positive side with first quarter GDP growth of 3.2 per cent (annualised) beating all forecasts (consensus was much lower at 2.0 per cent). It is likely that once presidents Trump and Xi agree on a trade deal, global growth will rebound after a period where it has been stymied by tariffs and the trade impasse between the world’s two largest economies.
Fourth, if the RBA cuts its cash rate further below the current record 1.5 per cent low, it will fundamentally undermine deposit-takers’ net interest margins, which could threaten financial stability at a time where banks’ returns on equity face a multiplicity of headwinds. The interest margins banks realise on their transaction accounts, which normally charge no interest, are constrained by a 0 per cent lower bound. Put differently, it is unlikely that banks will start charging negative interest rates on these accounts to preserve the spread between the cost of sourcing funding via these deposits and the interest rates banks earn on their loans.
Finally, there is an argument that the RBA should preserve its monetary policy ammunition – and further cuts to borrowing rates that are already at historical lows – for a time when the Australian economic faces a real crisis, such as a long overdue recession.

=========
each to their own. to me the rate cut won't help aussie housing market as RBA rate is the lowest in history.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

thanks nipper.
i did little dig while i'm in shanghai. aging problem are the problem for the whole world , but in china it is worse than others because of one child policy they use to have, now it start to bites chinese hard.
economy there isn't in good shape , but i went to a lot restaurants, they all seems doing ok. that means people still doing ok. everyone seems focus on "trade war" and think it will have good ending{ not sure why they are so confident}. they seems over confident for themselves . chinese Govt. still has iron grips on properties for the tie1 cities---try to put lid on the bubbly price.
they also try to push people to invest in stock market that give chinese economy a little boost . not sure it will work or not?? unsure.gif

come back to aussie market
asx200 looks gonna keeps going up for the wrong reason-----aussie dollar dropped. wink.gif other than that i don't see any reason for asx200 to hit all time high. but the TA looks that way.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 28 2019, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

just got back from shanghai----nearly two moths with my sick mum who lives in a rehab center with all these oldies sickness---sadness.

looks not many trading index or to share the infos here.
i hope someone readers can feed me little bit....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 06:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/tax/th...y_Sent=08032019

Is it a "retiree tax" grab or an end to "welfare for the wealthy"? Labor's pledge to make franking credits non-refundable has become one of the most hotly contested issues in Australia.

Depending on which side of politics you speak to, the proposal is either a massive tax grab (the Coalition) or the end of a loophole that benefits multimillionaires (Labor)
===========

i don't like to showing my political views, but to aim at franking credit .......poooooo, it is bit too low. thumbdown.gif

people working hard when they ware young and safe bit more to fund little better retired life ,,,,how on earth Labor will target this part........

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eory-is-garbage

BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said he’s not a proponent of modern monetary theory.

“That’s garbage,” Fink said in an interview with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “I’m a big believer that deficits do matter. I’m a big believer that deficits are going to be driving interest rates much higher and it could drive them to an unsustainable level. ”

=======================

i tent to agree with him. people need to understand what is the "live with your means" these days.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Chinese Buyers Helped Boost Australian Home Prices. Now They're Leaving

https://www.bloomberg.com/asia

================

vary good news to my ears. i heard a lot of them can't settle their "off plan" ...hope housing price drop another 20% ---that will sent a lot of them packing. cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 7 2019, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

It's hard to think of a scenario where interest rates would need to go up this year. The inflation pressures are very benign, wage growth remains low and the current rate of wage growth is unlikely to generate an inflation rate of 2.5 per cent," Dr Lowe said.

"There are quite a lot of things weighing on the rate of inflation at the moment so I think it's quite unlikely that inflation is going to be a problem any time soon. And if it's not, then we can keep with the current setting of monetary policy for some time."

He also disputed that low rates fuelled the growth of property prices to unsustainable levels, conceding that while interest rates played a small part this was overshadowed by the inflexibility of housing supply to meet the groundswell of demand supported by population growth.

Supply eventually caught up, but arrived later, he said.

https://www.afr.com/markets/rba-defies-the-...y_Sent=07032019

===============================
rate is too low -----so. no plan to cut it RBA
wondering .what if housing price down another 15% this year?? don't think rate cut will help much IMHO.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 6 2019, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Please loosen monetary policy before things get even worse.
==================

the rate already at historic low, how you gonna loosen it???? HOW??

RBA screwed the rates up alright. they should raise it when they had chance two years ago. now RBA almost run out bullets.

i guess we have to whethering this down tern without the medicine from RBA----witch will running longer and deeper i'm afraid !! cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 5 2019, 09:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

ask for help........ please explain to me


-----------------
Distribution Amount
AUD 0.08000000
Ex Date
Tuesday March 5, 2019
Record Date
Wednesday March 6, 2019
------------

Distribution Amount
AUD 1.50000000
Ex Date
Monday March 4, 2019
Record Date
Tuesday March 5, 2019
Payment Date
Wednesday March 20, 2019
=============

why the hack that " record date" is one day after "ex--date"???
and which is last date to hold stock that be able to get the divy?????
so confused!!! unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 4 2019, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

We expect that China would focus much of its total purchase commitment on agricultural and energy commodities," Goldman said, adding that Beijing can then reduce purchases of those products from other suppliers, as they are "less differentiated and much easier to substitute."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/04/goldman-sac...-look-like.html
==============

logical, no surprise!!!!!!!! i guess most of marketers predict this outcome.

we saw the charts of A50 today------looks like a text book stuff--------------sell on news!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 01:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Having been bitten by both a brown snake and a red back
=====================


wholly crap Mick! ohmy.gif you just made my whole body hair stand up.................zhzzzzzzz!!

hi draughtsman, your sound you are really know that place well..... lucky you!! tongue.gif

nipper
i've seen red back in my front and back yard{{kill them with spry}----it is little in size. i'm amazed how can it take a relatively large snake down........ {something like "dog bites man"]

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Date of this announcement
Tuesday February 26, 2019
Distribution Amount
AUD 0.08000000
Ex Date
Tuesday March 5, 2019
Record Date
Wednesday March 6, 2019
Payment Date
Wednesday March 27, 2019
======================================

assume 16cps ff divy for full year at$ 2.40....... seems people really scared about RC ...

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 28 2019, 10:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

the world is getting little heavier -----fight jet shoot down --break down the talks between Kim and Trump.......it goes on and on

so i like to relax myself and might be you guys

===========
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/deadly...wins/ar-BBUcc0H

=======

love these type of nature events, always amazed by them. somewhere i can hide myself. ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Feb 28 2019, 03:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/china-econo...mi-release.html

China factory activity shrinks to 3-year low in February, export orders worst in a decade
The official Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in February, data showed on Thursday, the weakest level since February 2016.
This comes as export orders fell at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, highlighting deepening cracks in an economy facing weak demand at home and abroad.
"Unless the trade war truly turns into an extended truce, the weakening trend may not end quickly," Iris Pang, Greater China economist at ING, said in a note. "As such we expect March's PMI to fall, too."

===========

this type of headline could weaken aussie economy and push down AUD .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Feb 27 2019, 07:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

looks bit out steps ??

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/indian-air-...e-official.html

Pakistan shoots down Indian jets, carries out airstrikes in Kashmir


==============
will it trigger something even bigger ?? unsure.gif
market bulls better run for cover i guess!! devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 27 2019, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

not direct relate to Tesla, but don't know hwere to put it as i think it is really important thing to whole EV sector.

===============
https://www.bloomberg.com/hyperdrive

Just a few years ago, automakers had a largely uniform response to questions about the construction of refueling stations for electric vehicles: “Not my job.” Today, they’re starting to realize that no one else is going to build stations at the scale needed to stimulate sales of battery-powered cars, so they’ll have to do it themselves. “Charging infrastructure is a bottleneck,” says Andreas Tschiesner, head of the European automotive practice at McKinsey & Co. Carmakers are “ready to get the ball rolling because nothing is happening on its own.”

Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford Motor, and BMW have teamed up to create Ionity, a company that’s building charging stations across Europe. VW has formed Electrify America, a unit that will spend $2 billion on stations in the U.S., and the German company is considering a similar operation in China. Porsche is installing chargers at dealerships and is working with BMW and Siemens to develop ultrafast charging. And Japan’s big manufacturers have set up a company to promote installation of quick chargers.

BOTTOM LINE - Automakers will spend $255 billion developing hundreds of e-car models by 2023, and will need a wide network of charging stations to persuade customers to buy them.
==================

“Charging infrastructure is a bottleneck,” -----problem that hard to fix....really Govt. to step in to help.
Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford Motor, and BMW have teamed up to create Ionity, a company that’s building charging stations across Europe-------they doing it for Tesla?? nah, they will kill Tesla i reckon.


that is two big things i'm bearish on Tesla. i'm sure people have a lot other things to say as well..
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 02:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

17 August 2017 .. to Feb 2019 . => Not a long period
===============

nearly two years Nipper. it is long time for me. sold them long ago when it was way over 120bucks, kinda remember i need money to invest something . made good buck out of it, but only tiny stake.

i'm not sure after divy, where this thing gonna go??? after CEO is quitting things not looking good. not sure what reason though!!

stand aside keep eye on it!!!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 11:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Resignation of CEO and Managing Director, Mr Richard Henfrey
Blackmores Limited (ASX: BKL) today announces the resignation of its Chief Executive Officer, Richard
Henfrey.
Richard joined Blackmores in April 2009 and performed a number of key executive roles before being
appointed Chief Executive Officer on 17 August 2017.
Blackmores confirmed Henfrey will remain in the position whilst the Board undertakes the search for a new
CEO.
Chairman Brent Wallace said, “I would like to thank Richard for his service and leadership of the Group
over the last 18 months and for his strong commitment to Blackmores, the industry and our stakeholders
over his decade long tenure.”
“He has played a pivotal role in the growth of Blackmores and in the industry of complementary medicine
overall. I am confident Richard will lead the transition period well, backed by our strong executive
management team.”
==============================

saw the news, dumped all the holding soon as market opens. dosen't look good from outside........
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/investors-c...sappointed.html

Investors counting on a big rally when China and US trade talks conclude could be disappointed

A trade agreement between the U.S. and China could result in a "sell the news" market reaction, if the deal comes up short or does not remove existing tariffs, traders said.

=================

seems market fully priced in the really good outcome of this trade talks...........now it is over bought!
wait for the pull back to add if you are a bull, or short it if you are a bear!! imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 07:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

i'm scared to touch QBE ,only because it is a insurer of Opal Tower, that will really cost them when that saga settles. IMHO.
that things will keep going for a while!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 23 2019, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/trump-xi-di...ources-say.html

Trump, Xi summit being discussed for late March as China commits to buying $1.2 trillion in US goods

================

1.2t ahh?? so cut the quota from others likes pf canada aussie eg....... whoever licks USA's ass. so now, China to do the licks itself instead let others to do it! American first!!!!! lmaosmiley.gif
what a joke!! but it is a reality------sadly. : wink.gif :

globe market keeps up wards after this news. even it is overbought for short term,



  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 08:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

yeah Mick. i just surprised that Chinese hit aussie back sooo late after we joint USA to band Huawei 5G and all other stuff we throw at Chinese face.

as you;ve point out-----it's political shities

i always said ----we don't have to bow USA and we don't have to listen to China as well!!

how about ------Australia first!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ps... Mick China has a lot of coal mine { may be the grade bit lower than us}, so it'a not their main attention for our coal miner. more of try to boost their own domestic economy after they been hit hard by Trump's Govt. IMHO

hope this shitiy stopped here, if goes any futher then our economy will feel it i'm afraid . thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 04:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/technology/telstra-hint...y_Sent=21022019

Aggressive' approach
Interestingly, whatever 4G plan the customer signed up to for the Galaxy S10+ will be carried over onto Telstra 5G network at the same price, Telstra officials said.

Whether this meant that 5G was usually going to be billed at the same rate as 4G, or whether this offer represented an unusual discount on the yet-to-be-announced 5G rate, Telstra officials refused to say when questioned by The Australian Financial Review.

=================

a lot of technical stuff that i can't understand it. but looks TLS going to fight hard to get some mobile market back. games on!! tongue.gif

i hold it.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

last time when i bought this one was 2017, i remember i'm kinda chicky ---to buy it at $88.88 { that stupid chinese lucky number lmaosmiley.gif }
somehow i made some money out of it.

sorry guys-------i did it again yesterday-----------------88.88....can't help myself. lmaosmiley.gif

look 3.00 bgucks per year ff divy at under $90. not a bad yield -----even most of stuff they sell is crap{ that is what i believe}, but for most of chinese they love these "magic vitamins " that can improve their life span.
plenty these sota imbecile out there in china whom believe this things..........it;s sad realities.
all i can do is try to make few bucks out of BKL. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 19 2019, 04:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/us-china-tr...f-commerce.html

The business community and American workers want a deal that is sustainable, that changes the trajectory of our bilateral relationship," Brilliant said.
================

American first!!! i guess China will bow to USA , because it has bigger muscles [ military power]/ lmaosmiley.gif
isn't it how things works always ??????

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 19 2019, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

know you are a biz man Mick.
so, if any biz rely on one single customer that would be disadvantage .

aussies use to rely on USA, then Japs, now ,chinese .
for aussies , just sell as much nature resource as higher price as we can, no matter who the hell we sell to, right??

i might be biased as i'm a chinese oregon.
but what i point out is real facts that without fabrication.

hope aussie can have more chioce, but the reality tell the different story----sadly!! devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 19 2019, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://insights.westpac.com.au/Video/Detai...mcars7iHQ%3d%3d

lmaosmiley.gif , it has reasons to be cheep i guess.
for investors , that is the case to make decisions .imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 16 2019, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/15/stocks-trum...s-in-focus.html

deal ??? nothing has been done yet. market jumped up for "hopes"

oh well, my shorts for index been crushed last night, all stopped out!! weirdsmiley.gif
such is life, have to admit my wrong analysis by take loss!

not sure where asx200 will go next monday.??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Feb 15 2019, 03:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

large than usual volume last two session , and price move looked relatively well { after shity results}

seems it won't get back under 3.00 mark anytime soon. i might have to adjust my buying level.
still hold some, and try to buy more of it as i don't see any other things that i can manage the risk we are facing today. weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 15 2019, 08:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

it is Friday, and most of the market been rallying all week till last night.

so we might see out right selling today for most of the major market.

take care for the traders today!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Feb 15 2019, 08:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/business/telecommunicat...y_Sent=15022019
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 15 2019, 08:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

hi K1
nice to see you gave a range for TLS ---2.80---3.20. i guess a lot of readers here will appreciate it. tongue.gif

i don't like the way they running this biz, but holly molly, who the hell am i to judge Andy?? tongue.gif

will stick to my gun ---buy this thing if it under 3.00 mark, and sell it when it close to 3.50. kinda think this is a defensive play for current uncertainty . IMHO though.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 14 2019, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Trump Considers 60-Day Extension for China Tariff Deadline

https://www.bloomberg.com/asia

================

can anyone trust Trumpy these days???? thumbdown.gif

market seems muted for the news atm. priced in already?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 14 2019, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Telstra delivers HY19 results in line with guidance,
adds mobile services and shows progress against T22
• Total income, EBITDA and NPAT down year over year in line with the expected
nbn impact
• More than half of the impact of the nbn now absorbed with approximately 55 per
cent of premises connected
• Excluding the impact of the nbn, solid performance of the underlying business in
the current market
• 239,000 additional retail postpaid mobile services
• Mobile postpaid revenue growth of 2.1 per cent
• Underlying fixed costs down $162 million in 1H19, with around $900 million in cost
reductions achieved since FY16
• Consistent with dividend framework, total interim dividend of 8 cents per share
(fully franked)
===============

only 8cents ff divy. market dosen't like it. weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 13 2019, 08:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday show that in seasonally adjusted terms lending dropped 4.4% between November and December to $32 billion, the lowest level in three years.

This is driven by a 6.4% drop in mortgages for owner occupiers and a 4.6% drop in lending for investment properties, continuing the weaker trend we have seen for most of the past year.

In the year to December, lending fell 19.8% with lending for owner-occupied homes down 16.2% and 27.8% for lending to investors. Loans for first home buyers were down 12.6% compared to December 2017.

The ABS said this fall was smaller than the 15.5% fall in loans to owner-occupier non-first home buyers.

The RBA is well aware of this weakness in dwelling investment (and falling approvals, down 22% seasonally adjusted in the 12 months to December, thanks to a 38% drop in approvals of apartments and home units and an 11% plus drop in new private dwellings.

In the first Statement on Monetary Policy last Friday the Reserve Bank identified weak dwelling investment as a key weakness for the economy:

“Very weak conditions in the earlier stages of residential development identified in business liaison point to further downside risk to dwelling investment in 2020 and beyond.” In fact, the RBA sees dwelling investment falling 10% or thereabouts over the next two to three years,” The RBA said.

“The slowdown in lending for investor dwellings this month continues the steady decline over the past two years, with the value of new investor loan commitments down around 40 percent from the peak at the start of 2017,” ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said in a press release yesterday.

“The slowdown in lending for owner occupier dwellings is more recent, with falls concentrated in the last half of 2018.”

“In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of lending for owner occupier dwellings excluding refinancing fell in New South Wales (-6.1 percent), Victoria (-6.6 per cent), Queensland (-9.9 per cent), Western Australia (-6.3 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-4.9 per cent), the Northern Territory (-18.3 per cent) and South Australia (-1.0 per cent). Tasmania (4.2 percent) recorded the only rise this month,” the ABS said.

Lending to businesses dropped 9.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
==================================

not sharp enough in my mind. the housing price drop 7--10% within a month---that will shake the tree for those { day dreamer to get rich easy and quick by investing in housing}.. devilsmiley.gif
i'm too dark am i??? tongue.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 12 2019, 08:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20190212-h1b4zg

Yardeni Research said it expects a trade deal between the US and China by the end of this month.

"The Chinese need a deal badly to placate Trump's demands for fairer trade so that he won't impose another round of tariffs on US imports from China. One tipoff is that the Chinese could have responded to US criminal charges against Huawei by walking away from the talks, but they didn't do so."

Overnight the latest UK economic data reflected the increasing uncertainty of Brexit. The UK economy decelerated faster than expected in the final three months of 2018. There are concerns that consumer sentiment will deteriorate the longer it takes for a clearer outlook on Brexit to appear and that business investment will continue to falter too.

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs sounded a more optimistic note in his comment.

"All told, Brexit uncertainty clearly is slowing the economy, but we do not see a strong case for expecting GDP to fall in Q1," Mr Tombs said. "We have revised down our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3%, due to the lower-than-expected starting point in December.

"We also have nudged own our forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in 2019 as a whole to 1.5%, from 1.6%. But we're not prepared to bet against consumers at this stage, given their track record of resilience and myopia."

As expected, the spot price of iron ore leapt higher on Monday as it reset with the return of Chinese traders. The surge in iron ore prices has led Citigroup to significantly lift its earnings forecasts for BHP, Rio and Fortescue. It has buy ratings on both BHP and Rio; and a hold on FMG.
=====================

uncertainty ----is the word for current market condition.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 11 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

sorry, it was say 2.37 i meant!! typo...

as i predicted------- Govt don't have enough money to tackle aging problem they need private sector's help
so they chuck in the carrots yesterday-------injecting some cash into aged care sector..
that is why we seen whole sector get a bit lift this morning.

EHE hit through my short term price target --2.50. so i off load big chunk of my holding so far.
will keep the rest for the longer term. tongue.gif

DYOR as always!!



  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Feb 8 2019, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

70.60ish currently and it keeps falling. tongue.gif

if there is no trade deal between USA CHINA , then this thingy can go well below 70cps imho.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Feb 6 2019, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

RBA said something that knocked AUD down

just got my shorts {i pile it up for a while} in the money.

i'd keep eye on 7150ish, if it falls then open up deep down side to come imho.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...20190203-h1at2t

Big banks: The report makes no changes to vertical integration, or any expansion to how banks asses the suitability of borrowers; it also does not prohibit the use of the "household expenditure measure" as the basis for making loans;
.....

Losers
The (at least) three companies facing prosecution over fee for no service: The final report is scathing about the industry-wide scandal fee for not service scandal where between them AMP, ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac will refund customers at least $850 million.

Mortgage brokers:

Retail super funds

Insurers

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Feb 4 2019, 06:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Due to a shoulder reconstruction,
=============

hope you get well soon Mick! but you are too old for "rubbie" game aren't ya??
know the pain you are suffering but all bad---least you can spend more tome on screen like some us----hard workers! tongue.gif

take the easy mate!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Feb 4 2019, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

CFD's Mick.
there is a lot out there if you are not really take huge position, i meant "huge"-----10's of millions
if you takes position less than a mill then CFD might be the way you go--------cheap and easy. but better way to spread your bets with few of them. imho

for AUD/USD the key level still around 71.50ish. i'm out of money as i shorted it little too early.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 29 2019, 11:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

good work mick. hope gold can give some short term lift.
but seems gold stock often leads gold price { should be other way around}, unsure.gif

i try to staying TLS that can provides less risk as current trade war at cross road.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 29 2019, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/business/telecommunicat...y_Sent=29012019

TPG Telecom has cancelled its plans to build the nation's fourth 4G mobile network, in a dramatic move that the telco blamed on the federal government's ban on Huawei equipment from use on 5G networks.

But the surprise announcement comes as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) considers the proposed merger between TPG and Vodafone, and will be read as an attempt to force the ACCC to approve the $15 billion deal.
===========

not so sure if id this news for TLS jump?? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 29 2019, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

what's caused price jump today?? unsure.gif

looks set to target 3.40 for this up leg. short term. imho

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 29 2019, 07:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/business/mining/iron-or...20190129-h1al4n

The spot price for iron ore surged 4.7 per cent to its highest in more than 10 months in the wake of a second tailings dam disaster at a Vale-owned mine in Brazil in a little more than three years.

Iron ore was fixed at $US78.18 on Monday, its highest since March 2 last year when it was at $US78.34 a tonne, according to Fastmarkets MB. It was set at $US74.69 on Friday.

The most traded iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose as much as 6 per cent to 567.5 yuan a tonne, the highest since September 2017, before paring gains to close 2.8 per cent higher at 550.5 yuan.
===============

looks set to the up side as this incident unfolded ........
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 28 2019, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

so the iron ore price set jump up sharply for short term??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 25 2019, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

seems that bad news alredy fact in long ago.

it trade up to 3.33 atm. seems shorts on the run.
will keep eye on 3.37ish ----go through there the over 2.50 is on the card in short term. imho
i'm waiting. tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 25 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

4cps half year divy still good value for it's current price...
but wondering why they just go for the "buy back"/?????? unsure.gif
dosen't like waste "the franking credit"..???
at current price, looks it have bit of value or at least to have "oversold bounce"??

attempting !!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 25 2019, 08:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

asx200

for today--------5875 to hold up side target 5925 . if it falls then we should see sellers come out . it's Friday.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 23 2019, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/22/us-cancels-...ource-says.html

The White House rejected a trade planning meeting with Chinese counterparts this week due to outstanding disagreements between the two sides over the enforcement of intellectual property rules.
==================

that was the main reason for the sell off last night. SPX ----first support at 2603, if can't hold there then next support will be 2582ish. if still can't hold there then bulls can forget about it for short term, medium term.

for asx200 lets have look at 5750---5800 support zone, then 5700 has to hold for the bulls
all imho though
hope you guys can give different ideas, so we can form something better here!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 18 2019, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

with that bad headline last two days for EHE and it's price didn't tank, that will be the sign for the longs.
=====================

feaking hell!! speak too soon. weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 18 2019, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

i still hold chunk of the EHE, as i think the govt. don't have enough money to tackle the aging problem every country have around world today.
they need private money more than ever for this sector. that is the fundamental reason for me to investing at current volatile market ----for the longer term. imho though.

for short term traders $2.00 mark have to be hold otherwise stop loss has to be in place for TAer{ longs}
for the shorts ------the stops will be 2.37ish
with that bad headline last two days for EHE and it's price didn't tank, that will be the sign for the longs.

i'm biased , because i holding some atm.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 17 2019, 03:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/supera...y_Sent=17012019

royal commission set the rules for the sector----looks fair to me!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jan 16 2019, 06:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

thanks mork try to answer me.

but my question is..... can they close this trade before December 18, 2020, when SP droped to 2100 this year?? if it's option then they can trade it any time when market opens
so before it hit 34% drop{ in that case they gonna lose over $5b }, it will go through 2100 first. if they be able to trade it any time then they can't lose if market goes down from here, or market keeps going up from here on then they will lose big time witch they didn't mention it at all?? that was the part that confused hell out of me?? unsure.gif
thought it might be a special warrent {set for special date, and strike price}. not sure what is it.
ps, i'm not really good with options and warrents. so thanks mork anyway. really appreciated your input! tongue.gif



  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 16 2019, 03:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/a-m...hlxR?li=AAgfOd8

The trader sold 19,000 put options on the benchmark that would obligate them to buy the index at 2,100 on December 18, 2020,Reuters reported on Monday, citing data from the options-analytics firm Trade Alert. The S&P 500 opened at 2,586.18 on Tuesday.

It could be a winning bet to the tune of about $US175 million, as long as the index doesn't drop more than 22% from Monday's closing level of 2,582 by that date.

But if the S&P 500 goes the wrong way, the trader may stand to lose up to half a billion dollars.

For example, if the index were to drop 34% by December 18, 2020, the losses could amount to about $US558 million, Reuters said, citing a Refinitiv analysis.
===================

unsure.gif unsure.gif
can this trade be closed before that final date?? if it's option then it should be able to do it. but if it's some kinda special warren ....emmm
can someone explain to me here??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 16 2019, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/theresa-may...ppens-next.html

what a mess!!! dry.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

it is Friday

and market is fully fact in the US VS CHINA trade deals get done.
time to lightening up i guess....if one had over weight market.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Christopher Condon
Updated 11 Jan 2019 — 5:55 AM,
first published at 5:52 AM

Save

Share
Washington | Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank can be patient before adjusting interest rates again as it waits to see how global risks impact the domestic economy.

"We're in a place where we can be patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve, and I think for the meantime we're waiting and watching," Powell said in a question-and-answer session Thursday (Friday AEDT) at the Economic Club of Washington, DC. "You should anticipate that we're going to be patient and watching, and waiting and seeing."

US stocks turned lower after Powell said the central bank is sticking with its process of shrinking its balance sheet to a more normal level, which removes stimulus put into place to revive the economy following the financial crisis and recession a decade ago.


The balance sheet "will be substantially smaller than it is now", though bigger than it was before the crisis, Powell said. He said he didn't know the exact level. Bloomberg

The balance sheet "will be substantially smaller than it is now", though bigger than it was before the crisis, Powell said. He said he didn't know the exact level.

US central bankers are refining their message after the hawkish tone of their December 19 statement and forecasts for further rate hikes in 2019 roiled financial markets. The Fed's communications - and a Bloomberg News report that President Donald Trump had discussed firing Powell - helping bring on the worst December for stocks since the Great Depression.

Since the meeting, Fed officials have indicated they're less inclined to keep raising than their statement and projections for two hikes in 2019 had suggested.

Powell said last week that he's "listening sensitively to the message that markets are sending" about downside risks.

Minutes of the December meeting released on Wednesday showed that many officials felt the central bank "could afford to be patient about further policy firming", indicating the Fed could place interest rates on hold through March or longer as it waits for clarity on risks to global growth that could affect the US economy.

The more flexible approach, apparent in the minutes and in recent speeches, has supported stock prices. Bloomberg's financial conditions index has retraced much of its December tightening.

On Thursday, Powell said he hasn't seen anything to indicate that the risk of a recession is elevated. The partial government shutdown is unlikely to leave a mark on the economy in the short term, though the Fed will have a less clear picture of growth without data from the Commerce Department, which releases figures including retail sales and gross domestic product.

At the same time, Powell acknowledged that financial markets are expressing concern about risks. The principal worry is global growth, he said in questioning by David Rubenstein, the co-founder of private-equity firm Carlyle Group, where Powell was previously a partner. Rubenstein also hosts an interview show on Bloomberg Television.

Powell also said he didn't think it would be appropriate to reject an invitation to meet with Trump, but he hasn't yet received such an invitation. Fed chairs have met with presidents in the past, he added.

Fed policy makers projected above-trend economic growth for this year in their December forecasts, and they expect the unemployment rate to fall further. Those forecasts appear supported by a robust December labour-market report, which showed the economy added 312,000 non-farm jobs, the most in 10 months. The unemployment rate stands at 3.9 per cent and central bankers expect it to average 3.5 per cent in the final three months of this year.

Even so, US central bankers face a challenging year that's complicating their communication. Financial markets are incorporating a variety of risks to the outlook, ranging from slowing global growth to the potential for a protracted trade war with China.
==========================

FED seems on their target to shrink their balance sheet............. not what Trump like them to do....... cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jan 4 2019, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

asx200

short term it has to hold 5525 then a sizeable bounce is on the card

for longer term investors-----5400 is the last level for the uptrend line. if that point falls then bulls can forget about market for a year or two. weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 4 2019, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

lucky new year mick and others.
i know you are a shark mick, so what i make might be a pocket money for you... lmaosmiley.gif

to be honest, i made a port then few other stoploss will eat into it, that is the way trader's going.

wait for aud/usd back towards 70.50ish then try to short it again, my plan!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 03:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

Traders are still seeking to piece together what happened just before 9:30 a.m. in Sydney, when orders came to sell Australia’s dollar and Turkey’s lira against the yen. While some pointed to risk aversion triggered by Apple Inc. cutting its sales outlook, others said Japanese retail investors were behind the trades. Whatever the cause, the moves were exacerbated by algorithmic programs and thin liquidity with Japan on holiday.

================

i watched drop and amazed then hit buy button near the low for aud/usd made good and fast profit within 30 minutes. lmaosmiley.gif
rare opportunities , after i have a quick searched news......

but aud/usd ---going to go lower as the pare went down below 70cps, looking at FED and RBA------hmmmm gonna be lower imho!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 22 2018, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

take loss for me again seems to be the case at year end!!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/us-stocks-s...down-fears.html

Dow dives 400 points to end its worst week in 10 years.............

===============

finally , a woooogeeee mama for the bulls!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 20 2018, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

another wild swings from US market over night.
i reckon people spooked by Fed chair signaling to keep shrink it's bloomed balance sheet.......ugly as it is. but US market is way over performed rest of world last few years.

for asx200 i have to stay on the course think the local fundies will push asx200 to above 5600 before x-mas!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 18 2018, 08:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

just thought the local fundies gonna ring the x-mas bell, then Dow drops another 500 points over night.

seems i have take some loss that i got it from yesterday!! weirdsmiley.gif

asx200, still think 5600 will be fight over before x-mas, imho though!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 17 2018, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

for asx200, seems 2600 become battle ground, i guess fundies will try their hands for the sac of their bonus !!

=======================

ha, they just did that as asx200 is over 5650 as i type ....... keep pumping it!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 17 2018, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

c'mon joules, we are really appreciated your input, don't let little tech issue drive you away. weirdsmiley.gif

or ..at least drop in from time to time, please!!


for asx200, seems 2600 become battle ground, i guess fundies will try their hands for the sac of their bonus !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 12 2018, 02:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

only know you are a chartist . didn't you can crack jokes as well! lmaosmiley.gif

market bounced up by this news

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

jingle bell ringing at last minute?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 10 2018, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

yeah, nipper
it didn't hold. i have to take a little loss in the end of the session . no jungdle bell ringing for me this year . weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 10 2018, 08:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

asx200 going back to support of 2600 again .
looks jinggle bell ring this year?? or we get it at very last minutes?? weirdsmiley.gif

keep eye on 2600 level. hope it can holds.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 5 2018, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

The yield on the three-year Treasury note surpassed its five-year counterpart on Monday. When a so-called yield curve inversion happens — short-term yields trading above longer-term rates — a recession could follow, though it is often years away after the signal triggers.

==============================================

10 year yield is under 3%.

US market will be closed tonight!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Dec 5 2018, 07:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

but a x-mas window dressing first!
====================================

only last one session----or should i say "half session". it was brutal " selling on news" isn't it??


=============================

https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world

Trading Nation: S&P 500 Nears Death Cross Trading Nation: S&P 500 Nears Death Cross
1 Hour Ago | 04:16
Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday in the biggest decline since the October rout as investors worried about a bond-market phenomenon signaling a possible economic slowdown. Lingering worries around U.S.-China trade also added to jitters down Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 791 points, or 3.06 percent, posting its worst day since Oct. 10. At its low of the day, the Dow had fallen more than 800 points. The S&P 500 declined 3.2 percent to close below its 200-day moving average as the financials sector lagged. Utilities was the only positive sector in the S&P 500, rising 0.16 percent. The Nasdaq Composite also dropped 3.8 percent to close back in correction territory. Trading volume in U.S. stocks was also higher than usual on Wall Street.
=================

where we find support for asx200?? 2600?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Dec 3 2018, 08:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

market set for a good rally as drump and xi had little agreement .
to me it's just a little patch , the trade war will go on imho.
but a x-mas window dressing first! tongue.gif

for asx200 5780 for today and 5950 before x-mas?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 30 2018, 09:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

saw the drops in both stock price today.
too me there will be " ,ore to come" sorta reaction from market imho.

anyway , it's good for consumers!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 30 2018, 06:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

thought Amazon gonna hurt woolies and coles once they come in aussie market. but didn't think they can be this fast.

---------------------------------------
Amazon has launched on Australia's $100 billion food and grocery market, prompting complaints from Woolworths that multinational suppliers are favouring the e-commerce giant with cheaper prices on brands such as Colgate, Huggies, Omo and Finish.

After stepping up pressure on Woolworths and Coles by adding food and beverages to its non-food pantry range last month, Amazon Australia is now undercutting the dominant supermarket chains by as much as 50 per cent on household staples and quickly capturing a foothold in the market.

Woolworths sources said Amazon.com.au was selling food and groceries at lower prices than Australia's largest supermarket chain on a number of products and in some cases at prices below Woolworths' purchase price.

"The question is are they selling below cost, which would be inappropriate. Do they have global [pricing] deals or are Australian suppliers giving them better deals than the major supermarket chains – it's not clear," a Woolworths source told The Australian Financial Review.


Woolworths, which accounts for about 38 per cent of the food and grocery market, plans to seek a "please explain" from suppliers early in the new year.

Related Quotes
WOW
WES
WOOLWORTHS FPO (WOW)
$29.830.040.13%
volume 3439723value 102591629.5
5 YEARS

1 DAY
Last updated: Fri Nov 30 2018 - 7:16:44 AM
View full quote
ASX Announcements Expand
Suppliers found to be giving Amazon better terms risk having their brands removed from shelves and replaced with rival brands and private label brands if sales of their products underperform in Woolworths stores.

Under the Food and Grocery Code of Conduct retailers can no longer arbitrarily delist products from shelves. However, if sales fail to meet targets retailers can remove products from shelves for genuine commercial reasons or as part of a range review after giving suppliers written notice of the purpose of the review and the criteria governing their decisions.

The risk for suppliers is that if they are delisted or scaled back by Woolworths and Coles, which together account for 69 per cent of the market, they become more reliant on Amazon. Amazon has less than 1 per cent of the online food and grocery market, which grew 39.7 per cent over the last 12 months, according to Nielsen.

Suppliers risk 'cutting own throats'
At Woolworths' annual meeting in 2017, chairman Gordon Cairns warned food and grocery suppliers could "cut their own throats" by selling on Amazon and losing control over prices and losing business with the major chains.

Woolworths sources said Amazon.com.au was selling food and groceries at lower prices than Australia's largest ...
Woolworths sources said Amazon.com.au was selling food and groceries at lower prices than Australia's largest supermarket chain on a number of products.
"I'm not telling them what they should do, but before they step into the breach they should perhaps consider the long-term ramifications," said Mr Cairns, the former chief executive of dairy and drinks business Lion and a former senior executive with Pepsico and Frito-Lay.

Mindshare chief strategy office Joe Lunn said Amazon Australia's share of the food and grocery market was small but growing fast.

"Back in March nobody was buying food and groceries from Amazon whereas ... now 4 per cent of Amazon buyers are buying food and grocery from Amazon," Mr Lunn told the Financial Review, citing a Mindshare survey conducted last month.

"The reality is FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) is still such a small portion of their sales ... but it's opening the door."

Woolworths chairman Gordon Cairns warned food and grocery suppliers could "cut their own throats" by selling on Amazon.
Woolworths chairman Gordon Cairns warned food and grocery suppliers could "cut their own throats" by selling on Amazon. Louie Douvis
Amazon.com.au now has more than 2500 food and grocery products on its site, ranging from packaged foods such as Carmans muesli, Kellogg's corn flakes, Milo milk powder and Mount Franklin mineral water to Finish dishwasher tablets, Omo clothes powder, Huggies nappies and wipes, Colgate toothpaste and Cuddly fabric softener.

Colgate Total toothpaste, for example, costs $3.50 on Amazon.com.au but $7 at Woolworths and Coles, Huggies nappy wipes cost between $2.99 and $3.99 on Amazon compared with $6 at Woolworths and Coles, Omo powder costs $22 compared with $30 at Woolworths and Coles and a 94-pack of Finish dishwasher tablets costs $16.99 versus $35 at Woolworths and Coles.

Some food and beverage prices are also cheaper on amazon.com including Kellogg's rice bubbles ($3.75 v $6) and Mount Franklin bottled water (20 by 500ml, $5.50 v $6.50 at Woolworths and $9.20 at Coles). After factoring in free delivery through Prime, which is available for most of Amazon's food and grocery items, the price gap is even higher.

However, prices on many other products on Amazon Pantry, such as Nestle's Nescafe Blend 43 ($9.39), Nutella ($3.70), Masterfood chilli powder ($2.90), Arnott's Tim Tams ($2.50) and Dolmio tomato sauce ($2.00) are identical to Woolworths' and Coles'.

Amazon.com.au now has more than 2500 food and grocery products on its site.
Amazon.com.au now has more than 2500 food and grocery products on its site. Mike Kane
Parallel imports
Market sources said Amazon was possibly sourcing some international brands through the grey market or parallel imports – a channel Coles and Woolworths have also used to source cheaper stock – pointing to subtle differences in pack sizes and packaging.

If this is the case, it also poses a risk to suppliers if Australian consumers baulk at different flavour profiles and blame the supplier, as they did when discounter Aldi imported Nescafe from Indonesia and Brazil in 2006.

In some instances Amazon's prices are cheaper than the major chains' on leading Australian-made products – such as Carman's fruit and nut muesli ($3.90 on Amazon.com.au, $5.70 at Woolworths and $5.70 at Coles but on special this week at $3.90) – which would not be available through grey channels.

Coles is also understood to be concerned about Amazon's pricing but declined to comment on Thursday.

Former Wesfarmers chief executive Richard Goyder warned two years ago that Amazon, which trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week and can take advantage of its global pricing power, would "eat all our breakfasts, lunches and dinners" unless local retailers lifted their game.

Market sources said Amazon may be adopting an every-day low pricing strategy, which Coles and Woolworths are also starting to favour over high-low promotions. However, this would not explain the 50 per cent price differential on brands such as Colgate and Finish.

Amazon Australia, which appears to be more concerned about growing sales and customers and passing savings onto shoppers than making a profit, declined to comment on its supply arrangements or whether it was selling food and grocery products at a loss.

"We obsess over the things we believe customers will always care about – low prices, vast selection and fast delivery – and work hard to provide all three, all the time," a spokeswoman said.
-----------------------------------

keep close eye on it!!
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 28 2018, 06:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

looks asx going into some sorta rally mode today?? as US market try to closed out on positive note!!

target 5767---5775 anyone.

bought few TLS yesterdayat 2.88 think it will go back to 3.00 plus in short term.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 24 2018, 07:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

lmaosmiley.gif
not surprised as ASIC always a paper tiger ...........
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Nov 19 2018, 07:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

If an everyday investor wanted to beat the market, they could do worse than watch business television every day for three months, and do the opposite of whatever they hear.

It goes to what Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott says is the power of narratives, and their ability to distort prices. But it's also reflective of our most basic instincts for self-preservation, except, it can be wise to resist the urge to run with the herd.

"The market is driven by narratives and shifting narratives," Arnott says. "Everybody wants to buy a bargain but they want to buy a bargain with no bad news. It doesn't exist; bargains exist because of fear."

He gives the following example: imagine the jeweller Tiffany & Co put up a banner reading: "special pricing: come in and enjoy our 20 per cent price hike". And people "bashed down the doors to get in, that's the investment world".

"Everything 20 per cent off'? "People say, 'oh, get me out of here'."

Research Affiliates is an investment manager based in Newport Beach, California, that has become well known as an authoritative voice on smart beta, as well as frequently expanding on the other forces of change in financial markets.

Arnott says that the best predictor they have found for mutual fund performance is trailing three-year returns. "You want to beat the market by 1 per cent a year? Buy only funds that are in the bottom decile on trailing three-year returns."

One of the lessons for retail investors is don't chase performance, he urges.

"That's actually not hard for a retail investor to do. Just watch financial TV and if you hear the same thing for three months straight, that's a narrative that's taken on a life of its own, do the opposite." Buying high and selling low is the enemy of successful investing, he declares.

The fund manager is critical of people who conflate alpha (excess return) and investment style.

"It's alpha if you anticipate it and you buy it, and when the profits have been realised you take chips off the table – that's alpha. If it's just a matter of you're a value manager and you win when value wins and you lose when value loses, that's not alpha. That's a management style that goes into and out of favour."

Accepting "alpha" at face value poses another problem: a manager's returns might be OK, but the end investor's returns won't because "they're going to pile in when value's winning and liquidate when value's losing".

Value has struggled, as any manager would admit.

"Value always trades cheap but it doesn't always trade really cheap. That's something people often overlook. When value outperformed tremendously after the tech bubble in 2000 to 2007, part of that outperformance was value stocks going from preposterously cheap to a modest discount. The market does a beautiful job of identifying which companies deserve a premium and which don't."

An investor can never be certain what a stock is worth today, but they can be certain what it was worth historically.

BHP Billiton, for example: look back 40 years, determine the subsequent cash flows, discount them back, and determine what the stock would have been really worth with the ability to see the future. ("To the best of my knowledge we were the first to do that and the last," Arnott says).

This exercise shows there is a 50 per cent correlation between the premium or discount the market paid for a stock, and the premium or discount the stock deserved.

"The market does a very good job; value stocks generally with a few exceptions deserve to be value stocks," he says.

Here's what the market gets wrong: growth stocks are priced at about twice the premium they should be, and value stocks on average over time, are priced at twice the discount they should be.

"The growth-value cycle has a predictive component, that is to say, when value is trading really cheap as it was in 2000, subsequent performance for value is spectacular. When it's trading rich as it was in 2007, subsequent performance disappoints."

Today, value is cheaper than normal, but not as cheap as in 2000.

Through history, growth commands 3.5 times the valuation of value. "When it gets to 2.5 times watch out. You might think value being priced at 40 per cent growth is a big spread – it's not." Value subsequently underperforms.

"When it gets to 4.5 times it almost always wins. So where are we now? We're at 4.5 to 1."

The exception is that emerging markets are at 5.5 to 1 (versus 3.5 to 1) or, "today's low hanging fruit". You can buy half the world's GDP for 9 times earnings, Arnott says.

"People are fearful of emerging markets. The narrative is that Trump's tariffs will create headwinds and uncertainty, the Federal Reserve raising rates, quantitative tightening. Pardon me, but the developed world has way more addiction to debt than emerging economies."

Two and a half years ago, Arnott wrote the article, "How can smart beta go horribly wrong?".

"It was hugely controversial. But, suppose I'd written 'How could stockpicking go wrong?' and advanced the thesis that a stock has soared and its underlying fundamentals have not, and if there's any mean reversion watch out. If I wrote that paper, people would have said, 'don't be stupid, everybody knows this'."

Smart beta is simply an array of strategies that break the link between the price of a stock and its weight in a portfolio. Today it represents "an incredible array of products and ideas, some of which are smart and some of which are downright stupid".

"How can momentum be smart beta if you're not only paying attention to price, but reinforcing it by putting more in whatever's the most expensive? Momentum is the antithesis of a smart beta strategy.Quality can be smart beta if you weight the stocks in a fashion that ignores price. Momentum doesn't ignore price, it's driven by price."

Research Affiliates is an advocate of long-horizon mean reversion.

"Momentum on average works but it's very short term. High-momentum stocks win a few months, then lose, and eventually cross over and underperform. So if you have a momentum strategy the first hurdle you have to overcome is trading costs; they can gobble up your entire alpha very easily. The second hurdle is if you don't have a sell discipline, you're in trouble.

"That's why long horizon mean reversion works, and momentum works."

Incredibly, while momentum has worked successfully since 2010, Arnott can't find a single mutual fund with momentum in its name that has beaten the market over that time. "You're missing something big and what you're missing I think is a lack of a sell discipline. And your trading costs will eat you alive anyway."

Finally, in these dark days for value, Arnott offers some advice about the impulse to shift into the competing factors: quality, momentum, low volatility and small cap.

"Out of the five biggest factors, one of them is trading cheaper than usual, four of them are trading more expensive than usual. And people are saying 'get me out of value, let me try multi-factor'.

"The problem then is you've moved from a value strategy to what is now temporarily an anti-value strategy." Most multi-factor strategies are in fact priced rich relative to the market, by 10 or 20 per cent.

"And they say, 'don't worry, we've got a value sleeve'. No, the value sleeve has been squashed by the other factors and you have an anti-value strategy and watch out.

"If it's priced at a 10 to 20 per cent premium to the market and there's mean reversion, that's a 1000 or 2000 basis points underperformance."
================
ohmy.gif
we have all sorts traders in the market!!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 14 2018, 07:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Lendlease is offering buyers of apartments at its signature $2.5 billion Melbourne Quarter project in Docklands discounts of up to 5.5 per cent as it battles a slowing market and an exodus of overseas investors.

The embattled construction and development giant's discounted offer, through stamp duty rebates, are for all remaining apartments being sold in the Melbourne Quarter East Tower and runs until the end of the year.

A spokeswoman for Lendlease said the majority of the 719 apartments in Melbourne Quarter East Tower had been sold with remaining apartments priced from $525,000 for a one bedder up to $1,552,000 for a three bedder.

"Stamp duty rebates have been incorporated in the marketing campaign from time to time since the project was launched in 2016. The value of stamp duty saved ranges up to 5.5 per cent of the purchase price," she said.

News of the rebates follow a torrid week for Lendlease, which has seen its share price plummet from $17 to $13 after it announced a surprise $350 million writedown related to infrastructure projects and abandoned a $500 million bond issue.

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ASX Announcements Expand
With the Lendlease AGM scheduled for Friday, the board and CEO Steve McCann may have to answer shareholder questions about the outlook for earnings across its residential development business, given rebates impact on profit margins, in addition to the woes in its construction arm.

Banks tighten rules
The latest Lendlease offer is running alongside a 5 per cent discount offered to first-home buyers across its projects in Docklands through the developer paying half of the 10 per cent deposit.

However, the same buyer cannot take up both the stamp duty and first-home buyer offers.

Tony Kelly, Melbourne managing director at valuers Herron Todd White, said banks now paid close attention to rebates and expected valuers to disclose them, whereas they may have been hidden in previous market downturns.

"If there's a rebate in a contract it might have a negative impact on the valuation. Banks will lend on market value, not something propped up by the incentive," Mr Kelly said.

"We always base our valuations by looking at realisable value in the secondary market. The question the valuer needs to answer is "would the property sell for the same amount if the rebate or incentive was not offered?"

Mr Kelly said higher settlement risk was about to happen in the market as banks changed their credit rules.

"Some borrowers might have to re-apply for finance," he said.
===========

SOME BORROWERS MIGHT HAVE TO RE-APPLY FOR FINANCE!!!! that will be the killer blow for some speculators imho.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Nov 14 2018, 04:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/oil-markets...y-in-focus.html

Most analysts expect U.S. output to climb above 12 million bpd within the first half of 2019.

"This will, in our view, cap any upside above $85 per barrel (for oil prices)," said Jon Andersson, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management.

The surge in U.S. production is contributing to rising stockpiles.
=============

can't understand why the heck some major firm talking about usd$100/b not long ago??
a lot of people knows that when WTI over usd$55/b then most of US shale oil will make money hence the rig count will serge if oil stays above $55/b longer than two months
as the result----oil market washed with US shale oil now that whacked oil market . wink.gif



  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 13 2018, 07:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

morning joules
i really like to know how you dealing with this type of " gap up/ gap down" that against your trades" when HK market opens?? i've been bitten many times and still haven't find the good way to deal with it. i want to lean from you guys , see if i can reduce the pain and loss in this type of situation. unsure.gif

looks bad for the market today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/stock-marke...terans-day.html

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 9 2018, 07:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/sydney-sell...y_Sent=08112018

================

Sydney house owners are being forced to sell at steeper discounts as their properties languish longer in a weakening residential market.

Houses in Sydney were discounted by an average 7 per cent in September, according to Domain Group's latest State of the Market report.

That figure is up from the previous month's discount of 6.9 per cent and has been increasing steadily over the past year, with the extent of discounting gaining 37.3 per cent in the past 12 months.

At the same time, the average days that Sydney homes sit unsold on the market is steadily rising. By October it was 71 days, up 57.8 per cent over the past year, according to the Domain report.

"We're seeing heavier discounting. Vendors are accepting a bigger discount than they were the month before and also the year prior as well," said Domain data scientist Nicola Powell.

"It's pretty significant for houses and units. It's something that looks like it's gaining pace. It indicates that homes are being priced to meet the market. Buyers are certainly wanting more than they did a year ago."

Domain is majority owned by Fairfax Media, publisher of The Australian Financial Review.

The discounting figures are calculated on homes sold by private treaty. At the same time, more homes are passing in at auction or being withdrawn. Clearance rates in Sydney fell to 44 per cent in October. A year ago the rate was 58 per cent in Sydney.

"So we're naturally seeing vendors sway to selling by private treaty," Dr Powell said.

"That is a common dynamic in the Sydney market when we start to see a slowdown in price growth."

Price growth, the number of homes that sell by auction as well as clearance rates are all correlated

Median prices for the September quarter are down 6.5 per cent in Sydney on a year ago, according to Domain. The median for a Sydney house is now $1,101, 532. In Melbourne, the September median for houses has fallen 3.2 per cent in the past year to $852,980.

A panel of economists surveyed by The Australian Financial Review this week all expect prices to fall further in 2019, both nationally and in Sydney. AMP's Shane Oliver predicts Sydney prices to fall another 7 per cent in 2019.

The volume of properties sold in September is down by more than 31 per cent year-on-year in both Sydney and Melbourne, on Domain figures.

New listings in all capital cities have increased over the previous month, a seasonal effect due to the spring selling season.

"What we are seeing is a build up of stock, not only over the month but over the year," Dr Powell said.

"What that says is there's fewer buyers in the market, there's fewer transactions taking place. Homes are taking longer to sell.

"In Sydney we are seeing all those market indicators point to further weakening and slowing in the market."

This week, Macquarie Securities economists cut their outlook for Sydney and Melbourne dwelling prices. In June they had predicted a fall of 10 per cent from peak to trough. They now expect prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall by 15-20 per cent peak to trough.
===================

looks it's coming....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Nov 7 2018, 06:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/heres-what-...to-play-it.html

midterm election play book ?? unsure.gif


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Nov 3 2018, 12:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

here comes the question " if you were Xi, what what you would do to the US market"???? keeps selling everything ???? unsure.gif
-----------

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/stock-marke...m-payrolls.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded just below the flatline, erasing a 198-point gain. The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent as Apple's 6.3 percent decline dragged down other major tech names like Facebook and Alphabet. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9 percent.
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

sellers keep the pressure on. must be thr chinese doing the selling eh??? blush.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Nov 2 2018, 06:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-china-tr...draft-deal.html

He told CNBC's "Street Signs" that the timing "feels a little bit too coincidental" given that midterm elections stateside are a few days away.
=====================

here comes the question " if you were Xi, what what you would do to the US market"???? keeps selling everything ???? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 29 2018, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

morning cooderman, yeah, joules is focusing on index, he/she really did a good job this far. i for one really appreciated the input as i'm trade on index more often . tongue.gif

not many stocks on my radar atm only looked at aged care sector. bought few EHE on it's way down think these sector will back up somewhat after royal commission saga faded a little bit
i reckon ageing problem will be with us whether you like it or not and Govts. around world don't have the money to tackle this issue alone, they have to get private money to help them. so don't think they will go really hard on this things. imho
also market seems in correction mode so try buy few things is defensive and keep bit more cash in hand is what my strategy for current "yo--yo market".

asx200 level for next few session-------5700 will be the bull/bear key battle line imho.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 26 2018, 04:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

cooderman, where you've been?? wellcome back !! tongue.gif

joules mm1 contribute this thread a lot since you went away .

now we have two charters here.. so happy to enjoy you two's charting skill. tongue.gif

joules
i still think it is short covering for Xjo, give the way that VIX movement. i could be wrong at current "yo---yo@ though.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 26 2018, 06:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

AMP shares have posted their biggest one-day fall ever as a powerful sharemarket rout and fallout from the Hayne royal commission collided with the decision to break with 100 years of history and sell its life insurance business.

More than $2.4 billion worth of shareholder value was destroyed in a day which included a broad market sell-off, a revelation that the wealth giant was attracting fewer new customers and a complex move that AMP would sell its insurance business, float its New Zealand operations and reinsure its NZ life portfolio with Swiss Re.

The sharp rise in the amount of money walking out the door at AMP was received poorly on a day when investors ran for the exits, sending the shares down 24.7 per cent at the low point.

The outflow of funds caused by customers pulling money out of the wealth manager rose sixfold to $1.485 billion for the September quarter from $243 million in the corresponding quarter last year.

Acting AMP chief executive Mike Wilkins said while the outflow of funds was steady year on year the revelations from the Hayne royal commission were damaging the business.

"The issue is the lack of inflow [new customers to AMP] and I think the industry super funds are continuing to benefit from that and I think it will at least continue until the final report is issued," Mr Wilkins said.

After a year-long strategic review, Mr Wilkins said the deal to sell its life business to UK giant Resolution Capital for $1.9 billion in cash, $300 million in preference shares, $515 million in equity and a $600 million economic interest in future earnings at a discounted rate was the right strategy for the company.

"I think it takes a while to digest these types of deals and we will be talking to shareholders progressively when we can," Mr Wilkins said.

'Attractive return'
He said the transaction, which was valued at $3.45 billion, would see the company receive about $110 million after tax annually which he described as "an attractive return for a passive investment".

AMP will emerge with a stake in Resolution Life founded by UK insurance entrepreneur Sir Clive Cowdery, who was estimated to have a personal fortune of £147 million in a UK rich list in 2017.

AMP shares fell at the open of the sharemarket and kept falling steadily throughout the day to close 81¢ or 24.47 per cent down to a record low of $2.50.

The fall is far bigger than the 8 per cent drop the company posted after the collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, and the 11.4 per cent fall it suffered a few weeks later on October 10, 2008, during a global market meltdown.

The sell-off combined with the newer and slimmer business operations will also likely see AMP fall out of the ASX 50 and may trigger further selling by index investors.

The development follows a string of disasters for the diversified financial services giant which was exposed for charging customers fees without providing a service, lying to the regulator about the problem and doctoring a report it presented to ASIC as independent.

Continued outflows
AMP's chief executive, Craig Meller, and chairman Catherine Brenner resigned over the debacle with financial services veteran David Murray brought in to clean up the mess and former Credit Suisse banker Francesco De Ferrari appointed to take the reins as chief executive in five weeks.

Argo Investments owned $47 million worth of AMP shares as of June 30. Senior portfolio manager Andy Forster noted AMP's issues of continued outflows and sharply lower inflows were unlikely to be solved by the three simultaneously announced measures yesterday.

"It's obviously pretty complex and will take some time to be completed," Mr Forster said of the deal.

Morgan Stanley analyst Daniel Toohey said while the flows were bad they were not unexpected. He did, however, highlight $85 million in lost earnings from wealth management and $40 million in stranded costs as a surprise.

"The missing piece to the puzzle is there is a lot of capital to be released and there are clearly costs to come out which have not been announced," Mr Toohey said.

AMP will exclude second-half earnings from "discontinued businesses" in determining the full-year dividend, advising the market that it will be at the lower end of its target of 70-90 per cent of underlying profit further agitating shareholders.

Mr Wilkins also said it had been a challenging quarter for the wealth business which was "not surprising given the reputational impact of the royal commission we flagged at half year".

Subject to approval
AMP's cash outflows were broadly steady at $7.970 billion for the third quarter compared with $7.993 billion for the prior corresponding period but cash inflows were considerably lower at $6.485 billion for the quarter compared with $7.750 billion the previous corresponding period last year.

The transaction will cost $320 million subject to approval from Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, the Foreign Investment Review Board, APRA, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and New Zealand's Overseas Investment Office.

When completed the deal will see as many as 800 AMP staff transferred to the new business.

In more fallout from the Hayne commission, Mr Wilkins said the company would no longer be focused on overall numbers of financial advisers but that the business would be more concerned about attracting a professional, compliant and productive cohort.

He also made the point that customers are taking longer to decide whether they will invest with an AMP adviser than previously.

"There is some concern out there and I think that as people are turning up at the door it is taking longer for that to translate into business flows and some of those business flows are going elsewhere," Mr Wilkins said
=============

https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...20181025-h173da

sound alarming for AMP. looks only thing can save this thing will be " too big to fall"??????? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Oct 26 2018, 06:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Australian shares are poised to rally to end a dismal week, as 'buy the dip' proves the strategy still has some room to run yet. ASX futures up 73 points or 1.3 per cent at 7.15am AEDT. The Australian dollar edged 0.3 per cent higher.

"It's natural to see an increase in market volatility" at this stage of the cycle and investors need to get used to it as it could extend for some time yet, NAB's Rodrigo Catril said in a morning podcast.

Wall Street bounced with all three benchmarks sharply higher at the close - the Nasdaq leapt more than 3 per cent - as investors embraced techs again. Microsoft's strong quarterly results help quell yesterday's panic attack. The Dow was up 1.6 per cent.

After today's closing bell in New York, Amazon and Alphabet are set to report results. Intel too.

The VIX retreated 8.6 per cent to 23.06 at 4.01pm New York time.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was 32 basis points higher at 3.12 per cent at 4.19pm in New York, widening the gap with its Australian counterpart to 51 basis points. The Australian 10-year note yesterday settled at 2.61 per cent.

"October is known for volatility, and we've sure seen it so far," LPL senior market strategist Ryan Detrick said in a post. "In fact, by many measures, October is poised to be one of the worst months in years. The S&P 500 Index has had two separate six-day losing streaks this month for the first time in history. That pretty much sums it up."

Mr Detrick said there has been reason for investor angst: "Six days out of 18 (33%) have closed at least 1% higher or lower for the first time since 1963, which comes on the heels of not a single 1% change during the entire third quarter of 2018."

In addition, Mr Detrick said the S&P 500 has been down 14 days so far in October, the most for any month since May 2012. "Also, 78% of the days this month have closed in the red (14 of 18), the worst for any month since 82% of days in April 1970 closed down."

Ever the optimist, Mr Detrick also said that since 1950, there have been seven other years when the S&P 500 was positive year-to-date at the end of September, but fell negative year to date at some point during the month of October. The final two months of those years were higher six times and up 4.1 per cent on average.

"Historically, the last few days of October have been some of the strongest of the year," Mr Detrick concluded. "With markets looking extremely oversold, the stage could be set for a rally."

BlackRock's Paul Mele also sought to assuage concerns about the sell-off. "Like death and taxes, precipitous market drops also seem to be one of those unavoidable, inevitable realities of life. But what we have observed, at least historically, is that markets have a way of clawing their way back."

Mr Mele also said while large market drops can rattle any investor, those focussed on the long-term need to weather short-term volatility. "Good and bad days tend to cluster together: out of the 25 worst days in the market from 1998-2017, 23 were followed by one of the 25 best days within one month."
=====================

people still try to "buy the dips"........ i guess there will be the day when things didn't work and it will be too late for a lot of people. ohmy.gif

i reckon use the bounce to raise more cash ----at least to 30---40% level. imho though.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 26 2018, 06:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

House prices in Sydney will fall another 3.5 per cent in 2019, bottom out by 2020 and then begin to build momentum in 2021, according to the latest QBE Housing Outlook report.

Melbourne, which has lagged slightly behind the trajectory of Sydney's property market, is set for a sharper drop in house prices next year of 4.2 per cent before growing again in 2020.

The forecast from QBE and BIS Oxford Economics coincides with Domain's September quarter figures that show Melbourne experienced its first annual decline in six years.

Tighter lending restrictions have stung the investor market in the two major markets, causing prices to deteriorate as auction clearance rates plunge to new lows.

However lending to first-home buyers has surged by a whopping 74 per cent in Sydney over the past 12 months and almost 30 per cent nation-wide.

QBE Lenders' Mortgage Insurance CEO Phil White said there had been an influx of first-home buyers, motivated by government schemes, into the market previously dominated by international and domestic investors taking advantage of low interest rates.

"The restrictions banks have been putting in place in response to regulatory pressures have done their job, as well as China putting restrictions on their residents getting money out of the country," Mr White said.

"There is a pent up demand still there and that opportunity for first-home buyers will be there for the next 12 months," he said.

While APRA officially removed its 10 per cent cap on investor growth back in April, Mr White didn't believe the availability of credit would loosen any time soon.

Banks have been reigning in risky lending since the beginning of the royal commission, which put their methods of evaluating loans for would-be buyers in the spotlight.

Despite record low interest rates, Australian homeowners are under considerable financial pressure, with residential lending blowing out to more than 40 per cent of borrowers' disposable incomes - 30 per cent above maximum recommended levels.

According to QBE, Brisbane house prices are expected to rise by 11.3 per cent to reach $615,000 by the middle of 2021, with more growth also on the cards for Canberra (10.4 per cent), Hobart (7.9 per cent), Darwin (6 per cent) and Perth (5 per cent) over the next three years.

Adelaide house prices are forecast to increase 12.4 per cent by 2021, the highest of all the capital cities.
===========

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/more-falls-...y_Sent=25102018
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Oct 25 2018, 08:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

short term bounce for Dax??
from daily chart a " h&s" top is formed with neckline at 11895ish.
sell into rally for Dax?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 25 2018, 07:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Australian shares are poised to drop 1.6 per cent at the open, taking their direction from renewed selling on Wall Street. ASX futures were down 94 points or 1.6 per cent at 7.10am AEDT. The Australian dollar slid 0.4 per cent.

Shares fell broadly and deeply on Wall Street, though the tech sector was particularly hard hit and the Nasdaq sank 4.4 per cent. The S&P 500 extended its October rout to 8.8 per cent, making it the worst month since February 2009. The Dow Jones shed 608 points.

"This is really off the walls," Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at Newbridge Securities, told Bloomberg. "Nothing fundamentally changed during the day. I think it's a technical breakdown.

The Nasdaq has now fallen 12.6 per cent since resetting its record high in late August. The NYSE Fang + Index ended 5.4 per cent lower as techs were hammered. Alphabet, Intel and Amazon are scheduled to report quarterly results tomorrow.

There was no one catalyst for the overnight selling. Mixed earnings, weak US housing data, China economic worries, fallout from the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi as well as the discovery of a slew of pipe bombs in the US to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and the New York headquarters of CNN each frayed investors' nerves.

Investors increasingly have been told to be more cautious and it appeared they are listening.

Dwyfor Evans, head of Asia-Pacific macro strategy at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg that "it's time to hold cash" after a sell-off that began in emerging markets spills into developed-nation equities.

"Investors have probably taken profit on the very, very easy money-making opportunities that arose in 2017," Evans said. "When markets get tough, when markets get a bit more risk averse, it's logical to see that investors will actually allocate a higher proportion of their underlying assets to cash."

Disappointing earnings from AT&T and Texas Instruments drove declines in the communications and semiconductor groups, offsetting a promising outlook from Boeing.

"There's just right now a heightened sensitivity to what can go wrong," Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward D. Jones & Co, said in an interview at Bloomberg's New York headquarters. "So we will have more of these days where stocks move a lot within the day as everyone's trying to sort through what do today's reports mean."

The yield on the US 10-year note dropped 6 basis points to 3.11 per cent.

The US listed shares of BHP, Rio and Atlassian each dropped. Atlassian has now lost near one-third of its value since peaking at $US98.21 less than a month ago.

Two potential brakes on the selling came after the closing bell: Microsoft and Tesla.

Microsoft rose 4 per cent in after hours trade after it beat Wall Street estimates for revenue and profit in its first quarter, as more businesses signed up for its Azure cloud computing services and Office 365 software.

Tesla made good on CEO Elon Musk's promise that it would turn a profit in the third quarter as it ramps up production of its Model 3 sedan, sending its shares up 8.2 per cent in after-market trade.
=======================

from chart point of view, we will see bit of rebound then keeps sliding down to --....... not sure where at this stage. weirdsmiley.gif

as i screamed not long ago-------" raise bit more cash".

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 25 2018, 07:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Stocks have taken a beating this month. The Dow has dropped 7.1 percent in October, while the S&P 500 has pulled back 8.9 percent. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has tumbled 11.7 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/dow-poised-...t-recovery.html

===================

but still US market is the best performed market till today.

not sure where asx200 can find support when our market opens??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Oct 25 2018, 06:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

Not unexpectedly shares in dairy products group, Bellamy’s Australia took a whacking yesterday after the annual meeting heard a warning for weaker revenues and earnings in the first half of 2018-19 and possibly for the full year.

The shares ended down more than 6% at $7.98 after hitting a low of $7.66. Such violent slides (and big rises) have become a feature of this company’s share price performance in the last three years.

CEO Andrew Cohen told shareholders to expect first-half sales to decline in a range of 10% to 15% from the first half of 2017-18.

Mr. Cohen blamed the expected fall on costs of $10 million to $15 million in clearing older inventory prior to overhauling its product line ahead of the launch of a new brand and range of products in 2019..

Mr. Cohen added that full-year Australian label revenue growth for the Tasmanian company would be weaker than previously advised – at the lower end of the previously stated zero to 10% range.

“As flagged in August, we do see a more challenging FY19 trading environment and have observed slower China cross-border growth across the category, as well as increased competition in terms of both availability and trade pricing for both local and global competitors.

“We view these changes as short-term challenges that need to be cycled in FY19,” he told the meeting.

“Our guidance range is unchanged, but in the context of recent category performance, we anticipate full year Australian label revenue growth at the low end of the stated 0-10% range.

“We note that 1H19 sales are likely to be 10-15% below 1H18 due primarily to an expected $10-15M run-down of trade inventory prior to the rollout of the brand upgrade. Stronger performance is expected in 2H19 as we return to normal trading and implement key revenue initiatives including the brand upgrade launch.”

He said this includes s a continued review of the $6 million write-off provision set aside in 2017-18 for the launch to accelerate the transition and ensure a clean changeover.

Bellamy’s shareholders at the meeting also heard a warning that delays in securing a permit to sell directly in Chinese shops would slow revenue growth for as long as two years.

“China is an enormous and complex infant nutrition market and our top priority for the future,” Chairman John Ho said in his address.

Both the chair and CEO both emphasised that Bellamy’s is targeting more than $500 million in revenue by 2021, with a specific focus in China and broader Asia.
==============================================

never thought this thing can worth over 20 bucks, but am no guts to short it . looks like it will drop to my targeted value zone [about 5ish bucks ] in near term.
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Oct 18 2018, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,412

seems you got this one right level again body.

3.11 as i typing , nice trade , wish i could get on . i were look at 3.00 mark and missed it!

  Forum: By Share Code

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