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COE, COOPER ENERGY LIMITED
garryg
post Posted: Jan 9 2011, 11:16 AM
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I'm out of COE.

Overall a disappointing play but keeping to the BESBS discipline, had to sell.
By my calculations, first indications from Menzel-Horr could trickle through from Monday/Tuesday and although no news/bad news might only drop the SP a few cents, I decided a potential small BESBS play in SUR (again) and some cash in hand might suits my speculative model better than playing the odds at M-H.

All the best to holders and I do hope that they strike it lucky.


Bought: 43.5c
Sold: 45.5c (profit just 4% sad.gif )

 
garryg
post Posted: Jan 4 2011, 03:27 PM
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ASX release:

We are pleased to inform shareholders that the H&P 228 drilling rig commenced drilling the Menzel Horr-1 well in Tunisia at 1830hrs (Tunisia time, 7 hours behind Perth) on 3rd January 2011.

The Menzel Horr Prospect lies wholly within the Bargou Exploration Permit, Tunisia, which Cooper Energy was awarded in 2006. Cooper Energy is the 85% owner and Operator of the permit. Jacka Resources (ASX: JKA) is earning 15% in the Permit.
The Menzel Horr Prospect is a robust thrust-bound, dip-closed structure and there is the potential for hydrocarbons to exist at multiple reservoir horizons. Potential exists for a much larger upside volume to exist should the bounding faults be proven to seal.

A depth versus time curve is attached to this announcement. It is expected that the key target formations will be encountered between 10 and 25 days.

Michael Scott, Managing Director, noted; After a thorough and long planning phase we are pleased to have spud Menzel Horr-1. The geological feature appears to be robust and the prospect is in an area that has a number of proven oil and gas fields. We are expecting to spend around $5 million and the potential exploration reward is 20 million barrels of oil an excellent risk reward ratio that has limited downside and large upside. Success at Menzel Horr would be expected to substantially change the value of the Company.

 
garryg
post Posted: Dec 29 2010, 09:48 PM
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Should hear an announcement re. drilling in Tumisia any day (assuming no stuff-ups).

Holding COE at 43.5c

 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 1 2010, 10:14 PM
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In Reply To: avwebb's post @ Dec 1 2010, 07:55 PM

Sorry Webby, I didn't think it was a touchy subject!
Those rivers are in the southern part of Queensland, but their headwaters start just below Cloncurry.
Still reckon that the cooper basin will be out of bounds for while.
I flew into Innaminnka and Thargominda about two weeks ago. Still wet, still boggy, and still raining.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Dec 1 2010, 08:13 PM
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In Reply To: avwebb's post @ Dec 1 2010, 07:55 PM



today's BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/
showing rivers in flood and watersheds.

(as a southerner, my take on the NQ/ FNQ debate was that the (invisible, undefined) boundary to the next 'state of mind' was alwyas 20 miles North of wherever you were at the time)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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avwebb
post Posted: Dec 1 2010, 07:55 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Dec 1 2010, 03:09 PM

Suggest that you get the "northern Qld " right .
All of the rivers mentioned are in the deep, dark, unmentionable, southern Qld.
The weather patterns up here in FNQ, Northern Tablelands, Atherton, are the weather patterns of pre 1970's.
The water you speak of is the northern Darling river headwaters.
Webb




 


mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 1 2010, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: garryg's post @ Dec 1 2010, 01:52 PM

Garry, Your hesitation on the Cooper Basin in regards to weather is , IMHO, quite pertinent.
Northern Queensland has had record rainfalls, and some of the Northern Rivers are still in Flood (Warrego, Paroo, Bullo, Barcoo, Cooper).
We are about to enter the tropical rainy period (did it ever stop??). The BOM has warned that with the current strong SOI, there is a liklihood of a greater than average number of Cyclones. It only takes one of these to turn into a large monsoonal rain depression and the flooding starts all over again.
I am betting that there will be not much activity in the cooper basin this year, and possible next year as well.

Mick



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garryg
post Posted: Dec 1 2010, 01:52 PM
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In Reply To: grommit's post @ Dec 1 2010, 11:26 AM

Hi Grommit,

Interesting question that you pose...

As a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) player, I'm generally only interested in the 'here and now' for Tunisia unless further drills/production will help entice more speculators on board. I guess COE do have production (possible improvements here once the floods allow full production to occur) and they do have follow-up drilling in the Cooper basin in 2011. That said, I'm now sure that these would lure me in.

The drawcard here is Menzel-Horr. The scenario, as I see it, is the following:

* We now have confirmed drilling for a spud Dec.21-24. This is a positive as punters have a set date.
* Menzel-Horr has an estimated P50 target of 24 million barrels. This is not a small target.
* Menzel-Horr has 3 target zones (to my understanding). This allows punters to hang in for a while and in a sense, have 3 cracks at success.

The downside (apart from the usual weather/equipment breakdowns that all drills face) is
* COE is not a 'sexy' stock. I'd like to think a potential 24mmbl is a good lure but COE doesn't usually get the same support as some explorers.
* Christmas???How many punters are playing over the break?
* There are some other drills currently/about to spud in or near that time. Will this distract from COE? My guess is 'yes' but the question is how much?


Given where we are now, I'd like to think that 55c is a strong possibility pre-spud but given the scenario above, time shall tell.

 
grommit
post Posted: Dec 1 2010, 11:26 AM
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In Reply To: garryg's post @ Nov 15 2010, 02:29 PM

GarryG...yep...a nice little play here...but only ONE well to be drilled from what I read...with multiple independant structures as follow ups. I like your exuberance but wonder in fact if a one well drill will entice enough investors to get this travelling north to somewhere near the 60c mark you are suggesting?? Lots of ground and different things going on. I am browsing their news and can't find anything else of not hapening in the immediate future apart from this Tunisia drill...am i correct? Is there other events about to unfold that will help push this SP to levels you are suggesting? Cheers...enjoy your posts!

 
garryg
post Posted: Nov 15 2010, 02:29 PM
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Hi Veeone,

Thanks for the link.
Guess it is really saying what I was suggesting earlier here.
If one wants a fairly safe stock with a good cash backing that has BESBS potential, then here is a chance.

Now just waiting for news at Menzel Horr.

 
 


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