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PROPERTY
nipper
post Posted: May 30 2020, 10:48 AM
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Covid-19 has ruffled office sector of property. There was a 40% drop in A-Reits from Feb to late March, though most have clawed the way up a bit.

Are offices a thing of the past and the collegiate way of working now replaced by working from home?

Listed funds with a high exposure to office property include Charter Hall Long Wale, Dexus Property Group, Abacus Property and GPT Group. Australian Unity and Centuria Capital Group are among the managers offering specialist funds.

Listed property conglomerate Mirvac, which is known for its residential expertise, manages more office space than some of the specialist trusts.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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balance
post Posted: May 18 2020, 03:35 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 18 2020, 03:28 PM

So, it appears to have been tested in court with Telstra.

Does workers compensation cover employees working from home?
If you injure yourself while working from home, you may be entitled to compensation through a no-fault insurance scheme like WorkCover - the outcome of your claim will depend on whether it can be shown that your injuries occurred in the course of your employment.

For example, in one case, the Administrative Appeals Tribunal ruled that Telstra had to pay the medical and legal costs of an employee who was injured while working from home. The employee, named Dale Hargreaves, was working from home and left her computer to go downstairs to retrieve some cough medicine. On her way she slipped and fell down the stairs, injuring her shoulder.

While Telstra denied liability due to Ms. Hargreaves' remote working location, the Tribunal ruled the fall occurred during her employment and deemed it like any employee taking a break at work. Hargreaves and Telstra Corporation Limited [2011] AATA 417.





Working from home: employer obligations
Employers have a duty of care when it comes to their workers undertaking their tasks from home. The Workplace Health and Safety Act 1995 says that employees working from home are still covered when injury occurs.

Employers must take reasonable steps to ensure their employee’s safety, including making sure an employee’s home area meets workplace health and safety requirements, and completing a risk assessment. An employer should also provide a working from home policy which:

  • gives clear instructions on how to perform your duties safely;
  • states when or how the employer will inspect the home environment; and
  • provides information on when and how employees should report potential health and safety issues.
Employees also have a responsibility to look after their own safety. They should designate a work area that family and other members of the public aren’t allowed to enter during their hours of employment.







And from Worksafe: https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/covid-...rking_from_home?



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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
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Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 18 2020, 03:28 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 15 2020, 01:15 PM

An interesting application of the law of unintended consequences was highlighted in the OZ today.
Seeing as so many people are working from Home now, what happens if you trip and fall in your new workspace?
Are you covered by Workcover?
Will workcover premiums go up down or stay the same?
With all these new workplaces, will the workplace health and safety inspectors be allowed to check it out?
And if they are, who pays for any alterations to a "dangerous environment" identified in the new workplace?
What happens if you do not want unsightly rails , barriers, warning signs etc erected i your home?
Ah, ya gotta love the law of unintended consequences
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 15 2020, 02:38 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 15 2020, 02:14 PM

QUOTE
you beat me to it, Mick

It's just that I type faster , but less accurately.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: May 15 2020, 02:14 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 15 2020, 02:06 PM

you beat me to it, Mick wink.gif

But urban amenity will always have a pull factor. We all know how long it can take to find a buyer for regional properties.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: May 15 2020, 02:08 PM
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In Reply To: rlane's post @ May 15 2020, 01:41 PM

Not taking it all as gospel, there's some elements of truth in this story.

Australians seek regional affordability, as research shows 30 per cent price plunge possible with coronavirus second wavehttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/aust...avirus/12242252
QUOTE
Key points:
  • - The option of living further away from big cities has become more appealing for some Australians after the pandemic
  • - The city exodus has yet to play out and comes as CBD rents dive and national house prices are expected to take a big hit
  • - Whatever happens to the housing market, COVID-19 has shifted the way people think about where they live and work

It's going to take a while for the implications to flow through

CBDs; what purpose?
- hub and spoke mass transit, with rush hours?
- NSW is basically saying; don't take pubic transport for now
- bikes offer freedom; cars could choke the
- expensive office space with high allocation per person? Hot desking, gone!

Home life
- More sprawl, but perhaps a bit more community in each cluster? Or even cluster in each community!
- Broadband and 5G gotta get efficient.
- And for those not able to benefit from
- and what about age-care homes/facilities? Independent living?

Distribution channels
- The 'gig economy .... e-bikes and scooters. Another subset of day labour, except its crumbs off the table, job lots (not lots of jobs)
- More packaging
- The mall. A curious 20th C model (I hope)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 15 2020, 02:06 PM
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In Reply To: rlane's post @ May 15 2020, 01:41 PM

And further to that Roger, from The ABC

QUOTE
Real estate agents say COVID-19 has sparked a new wave of enquiries from Australians interested in moving from capital cities to regional areas, as research shows a "worst-case scenario" of a 30 per cent plunge in national house prices is possible if there is a second wave of coronavirus infections.
The option of living further away from big cities has become more appealing for some Australians after the pandemic
The city exodus has yet to play out and comes as CBD rents dive and national house prices are expected to take a big hit
Whatever happens to the housing market, COVID-19 has shifted the way people think about where they live and work
As social distancing restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 ease and auction activity resumes, some are looking at the option of selling in Sydney and Melbourne to move further out.

Agents say people have become used to working from home because of the coronavirus shutdowns and distant suburbs and regional towns offer better affordability and more alluring lifestyles.

This was exactly why Tom and Angelique Godfrey moved in March from their four-bedroom house with a pool in Sydney's Botany, to a 25-acre farm in the Kanimbla Valley.

Mr Godfrey said the family had long considered moving to the property, which he and his brother Sandy inherited from their father in the early 1990s.

"We always had one foot in the country," Mr Godfrey said.

"When COVID-19 hit, it was an opportunity to reassess."

The family had already been contemplating the move as Angelique was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease and they wanted a less stressful lifestyle.

"We previously had had a gelato cart business in the city — and that required me to be there," Mr Godfrey said.


Living in a regional area of North Victoria, I hope the exodus doesn't get too serious, we don't have the infrastructure to cope.
Might have to start renovating that old house I bought next door, but then again, I might get crappy neighbours.
Mick



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rlane
post Posted: May 15 2020, 01:41 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 15 2020, 01:15 PM

I'm getting the same message from my neighbours. I have one whose son works in Germany.
The company he works for had been thinking about the 'work from home model' but hadn't adopted it.
The lockdown has forced them to do it and by all accounts is working out quite well.


This from New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/nyregion...-from-home.html

Then it crossed my mind, if you don't have to work in the city why live there?
And found this
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/may/...ed-home-working



Roger



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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 15 2020, 01:15 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 15 2020, 11:54 AM

I think the realisation that business will never be the same is slowly starting to gather pace.
Talking to a few colleauges in the IT industry, most are saying that they have found that first of all, productivity goes up.
Secondly, the idea of having online meetings has produced two results:
(a) the realisation that the number of meetings can be curtailed.
It also has dawned on them that those meetings that do take place can be significantly shorter, with only those absolutely required to be in the zoom. no more attendees just because it might be a good idea.
(b) The amount of travel has been cut down.
This second result has worked in a number of ways.
Firstly, the cost to the company of air fares, accomodation, taxis etc has almost been stopped.
On top of this, the average of six hours in travel time that is taken up in a standard one day tri[ between Sydney and Melbourne can be spent by the employee in either productive work or leisure time at no further expense to the company.
Secondly, the costs to the employees has reduced. My nephew who works in It for a Govt agency said he is saving $300 a month in travel costs in commuting to city offices from his home. And once again, the freeing up of unproductive time is a win win for employee and employer.

One guy who works for an IT service provider said that the lockdown has so changed their business, that the company has decided that no matter when the Vic government eases all the restrictions, they will be staying with the remote lockdown model for at least the next 12 months and possibly longer. he says he really misses the social contact with work colleauges, but it may mean that socialising with them is done separate to the work environment. The company is even suggesting that salary increases and extra time off be given to do just that, such has been the increase in productivity.
Al those large Kings carparks may find their business model is down the drain, along with the airlines, Toll road operators, and even public transport operators.
Interesting times ahead.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: May 15 2020, 11:54 AM
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Delusional, most of them
QUOTE
Residential Property

“Do I think real estate will plunge? No chance. While interest rates are low the sector will remain sound. I have no doubt the market will come off…but with interest rates so low it’s just as affordable to pay off a mortgage as to pay rent”
James Symond, CEO, Aussie Home Loans

“We saw a trough in residential inquiry in late March and since then we have seen a very substantial increase back to pre-crisis levels”
Mark Steinert, CEO, Stockland Ltd

“In an environment where most people have been working from home, we have seen an increase in buyer activity for layouts that offer extra study/office space”
Harry Triguboff, CEO, Meriton Group

Ton of trouble
QUOTE
Retail

“When experts write about the demise of old world retail, they will mean, the retail behemoths that had come to rely on the physics; how fast, how big and often how cheap, but did not develop their magic chemistry. They were already out of touch before. It’s not taken a global pandemic to reach this realisation, they were in the retailer emergency ward and were terminally ill, COVID-19 has simply accelerated the inevitable”
Shaun Bonett, CEO, Precision Group [AU/NZ commercial property management group]



And this sector is in for a big shakeout
QUOTE
Workplace

“There will be a long-term adjustment in how we think about our location strategy...the notion of putting 7,000 people in a building may be a thing of the past”
Jes Staley, CEO, Barclays plc

“I think it would be fair to say demand for physical office space will reduce”
John McMurtrie, CEO, Link Group

“What we've learned through this experience is in fact that there is a different way of working open to us now. We’re not going to move 46,000 people back to work. We’re going to move some back and have some work from home”
Chris Ashton, CEO, Worley Parsons

So glad my only investment in property is my own home, and that I consider a lifestyle option, equity share that allows for lumpy equivalent relocation, but not an investment



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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