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OIL, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Apr 21 2020, 06:58 AM
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Energy traders bailed out of the expiring May US oil futures contract in a frenzy on Monday, sending the contract to a record of -$US35.20 (-$55.38) a barrel or a fall of 292.7 per cent at 4.34am AEDT as few buyers are willing to take delivery of actual physical barrels of oil because there is no place to put the crude.

Benchmark US crude oil for June delivery, which shows a more "normal" price, fell 16.5 per cent to $US20.90 per barrel.

With demand down 30 per cent worldwide due to the coronavirus pandemic, and the main US storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma expected to fill up in a matter of weeks, very few want to be stuck with oil barrels that they have to take delivery on at some point during May. Major oil-producing nations have agreed to cut output and global oil companies are trimming production, but those cuts will not come quickly enough to avoid a massive clog.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 20 2020, 01:31 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 20 2020, 01:00 PM

nipper

isaw the price dropped to near usd$14 ish, and i jumped in added huge load longs with CFD s. we could see few more US shale bites the dust soon .
i prepare enough margins for the WTI price under 10 bucks. and hold shit load oil atm. i reckon 90% chance i'm gonna make good money in very short term-----time frame of one week from today
today is first day of front month contract . so we can see crazy moves for the WTI. if price to stay this low for longer, a lot of driller will go bust and brings the supplies and demands in balance .



 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 20 2020, 01:00 PM
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Oil production in the USA, as well as the marginal shale gas producers, may well take a hit if the latest rig numbers are factored in. With the current volatility, Covid-19 as well as OPEC falling apart with the Russia/ Saudi standoff game of bluff, there's a lot happening.
QUOTE
A collapse in US oil production is coming; it could continue to trickle out, as it has been doing in the past three weeks, or it will arrive quickly in a couple of weeks in May with a rush of cuts from companies large and small. These will be in addition to the 9.7 million barrels a day cut announced by OPEC, Russia and several smaller producers, and on top of cuts already factored in for the US, Norway, Canada

But it is coming in the US; last week’s near-record plunge in the number of rigs looking for oil in the US guarantees it.

In its regular report on Friday, Baker Hughes reported that the number of active rigs drilling for oil in the US dropped by 66 to 438 last week. That was the fifth straight weekly declines and suggests that oil production is headed for a sharp and early fall. The number has fallen by 126 in a fortnight. In fact, the number of rigs at 438 is down 205 from March 20 this year and 415 or nearly 50% from the year-ago figure of 853 oil rigs.

Including gas rigs, the fall is more dramatic.

US production is already down around 600,000 barrels a day according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to 12.4 million barrels a day

According to Reuters, US and Canadian energy companies have lopped around 730,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the past couple of weeks, with the largest coming from ConocoPhillips last Thursday with a cut of 200,000 boepd.

Along with Chevron, which slashed its output in the Permian basin by 20% or 125,000 bpd, and Occidental Petroleum, which reduced 2020 output by 85,000 boepd, the three companies account for 410,000 boepd of the reductions announced by US and Canadian companies, Reuters reported.

As well, other cuts have come from BP of about 70,000 boepd this year, (a 14% drop from its 2019 output of 499,000 boepd) and Cenovus Energy, one of Canada’s largest oil companies, which has revealed production cuts of 40,000 to 45,000 bpd.

The EIA says US production could drop as much as 1.7 million bpd from fourth-quarter 2019 to the fourth-quarter of this year. However, the EIA expects production for the year to average 11.8 million bpd in 2020, down 500,000 bpd from 2019. Daily production at the end of this year could be as low as 10.5 to 10.6 million barrels a day.

Reuters said Canadian production cuts already amount to at least 325,000 bpd, and analysts estimate that 1.1 million to 1.7 million bpd could be shut in eventually; the country currently produces roughly 4.5 million bpd, most of which is in the oil sands of the western province of Alberta.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/20/rig...oil-production/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Apr 3 2020, 08:47 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/oil-markets...a-in-focus.html

Trump said he had made no offer to cut U.S. output.

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yeah , already had one file the chapter 11 yesterday.----A BIG SHALE PLAYER FROM USA
if Saudi don't make a effort to jack up oil price, i guess their oil field will be strike by missiles that made in USA soon.............. cool.gif

"american first"..."make american great again"!!!!!!!!!!! lmaosmiley.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 3 2020, 05:28 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/oil-rallies...o-end-soon.html

Oil prices skyrocketed on Thursday after President Donald Trump told CNBC Saudis and Russia will ease pressure on oil, ending a price war that has contributed to crude’s massive plunge.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged 24.67% to settle at $25.32 per barrel, for its largest single-day percentage gain in history. Given WTI’s 59% decline this year a smaller gain, of course, now accounts for a much larger percentage move. International benchmark Brent crude jumped 17.8%, or $4.40, to trade at $29.14 per barrel.

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compare to year to date drop------------- the price is far behind and need to go a lot higher to defuse current threat to the financial system from USA and around world . imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 2 2020, 11:52 AM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/02/whi...lty-of-oil-war/

Shale oil producer Whiting Petroleum Corp has gone broke, becoming the first casualty of the Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price and volume war that has seen prices for US crude slump 50% in the past month to $US20 a barrel.

The producer (which is smaller than Woodside Petroleum in Australia) said it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after reaching an agreement with creditors to cut its debt by about $US2.2 billion through an exchange of some of its notes for 97% of new equity.

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it's just a start, soon US economy will face the heat and spread to whole world financial system .
unless we see oil price back to usd50/b within month.
how that gonna be happen?? well , most of us know how world war one started!!!!!!!!! wink.gif



 

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early birds
post Posted: Apr 1 2020, 09:12 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 1 2020, 08:48 AM

didn't see our main media report Saudi down Yemen's drone attack on aramco oil field
i guess if those attack succeeds then oil price could be doubled in few days-----godd for USA and Rassia
poor Saudi have to fend attack off on it's own now!!!!



 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 1 2020, 08:48 AM
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You can now buy a barrel of Western Canadian Select Crude Oil for less than a beer!


Last trade: $3.90 not sure $C or $US. - probably the latter. Does it matter?




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 10 2020, 10:18 PM
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Shale’s new reality: Almost all wells drilled now lose money.

that is the reality for USA
they said most of these small and medium size driller all rely on credit from banks
the crash of oil price might triggering a credit event.......... sound bit like scar mongering to me. as we all know banks have really good level of tie1 capitals these day..
who knows what happens.




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nipper
post Posted: Dec 9 2019, 06:54 PM
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Energy stocks were a standout in the local session after OPEC+ members agreed to further production cuts into the first quarter of next year. That pushed global oil prices higher by 3 per cent

It spurred a 1.6 per cent lift in Woodside to $34.41. Santos added 1.7 per cent to $8.23, Beach Energy lifted by 5.2 per cent to $2.62 and Origin put on 1.5 per cent to $8.70.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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