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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 10:01 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Looks like something is happening

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64Sd-qD_rDI
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Aug 28 2018, 06:20 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Well the S&P 500 at new highs is a surprise to me given the melt up in January.

Anyway here we are.. we have the benefits of the tax changes in the numbers now and rising interest rates and labour costs are surely going to eat into US corporate profit margins.

A couple of dents in the FAANGs this reporting season hasnt swayed the Nasdaq from hitting new highs aswell.

Whats gonna cause a move the other way??? Surely its a change in sentiment.

Its risk on, until its not....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 11 2017, 07:26 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

The first 5 chapters have been fascinating reading!

When do you expect to post the next installment?

Im keen to hear your views on how markets will respond to these events, both equity and bond markets.

Cheers and thanks
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 1 2017, 06:28 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi maiden

Yep still here, although with the stock still suspended there isnt the need to jump on here very often.

Anyway, I notice the new website is up and running.

Check out www.prenolica.com everyone

Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 22 2016, 04:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

I was wondering whether the election result would bring you out from cyberspace wilderness! Im glad it has.

Im very uneasy about the direction the US is heading under Trump.

Lets assume (and a big assumption) that he is able to implement his policies regarding tax cuts for corporates and the wealthy plus his infrastructure program funded by private sector participation (good luck with that), the impact this will have to US debt levels and the budget deficit would be catastrophic and would occur at a time where there will be even more of a drain on the US fiscal position with social security payments increasing.

All at a time when bond yields are rising!

I think they are on a path to destruction but will be able to kick the can as long as the market is willing to fund them.

Anyway, looking forward to hearing your updated thoughts!

Cheers
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 1 2016, 08:33 AM


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Posts: 7,956

New website up and running!




http://www.buytaiga.com/







  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Mar 30 2016, 08:43 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Thanks Ray (my thanks button doesn't seem to work!)
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Mar 29 2016, 10:44 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi Ray how long ago were you told that?
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 23 2016, 07:27 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Try www.bioeffectives.com

This is the new site that has been completely updated.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Aug 20 2015, 08:31 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Shame we arent listed as this is the type of good news and 3rd party endorsement that was largely missing all those years ago.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 15 2015, 11:11 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi everyone

FYI Solagran have announced that the Ropren patent has been granted in the US.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Mar 18 2015, 08:51 AM


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Posts: 7,956

OMG! SOLAGRAN ANNOUNCEMENT!

Key United States Patent Granted for Solagran’s Core Production Technology

Melbourne, Australia: Solagran Limited (ASX: SLA) announces that a key patent protecting
the Company’s core production technology for the manufacture of Bioeffectives®, including
polyprenols / “Bioeffective R” (the major component of Ropren®), has issued in the United
States.

United States Patent No. 8,969,517 entitled “Method for Processing Vegetable Raw
Materials” has corresponding patents already granted in Australia, Russia, Canada,
Indonesia and Latvia, and applications have also been filed in selected other jurisdictions.
Dr Vagif Soultanov, Chairman of Solagran and inventor on the patent with Solagran’s
Professor Viktor Roschin, said “The granting of our core technology patent in the US is a
very important milestone for Solagran. It establishes our proprietary position in the
manufacture from different plant species of high-purity polyprenols and other products
across major jurisdictions, and gives us a firm foundation for future commercial success”.

Polyprenols are present in plants in low concentration and are naturally-occurring
precursors of dolichols. Dolichols exist primarily in animals and are found in all key organs
of the human body, playing a major role in crucial metabolic pathways, protecting cellular
membranes, stabilising cell proteins and supporting the body’s immune system. Dolichol
deficit or deficiencies are observed with degenerative diseases including chronic
inflammatory conditions and cognitive disorders.
Importantly, polyprenols can be administered orally and are transformed in the liver to
dolichols. This provides a strong rationale for polyprenol supplementation to potentially
address multiple conditions, including inflammatory diseases, cognitive decline and
multiple liver conditions.

Until development of the Solagran manufacturing process it had not been possible to
extract polyprenols in commercial quantities at reasonable cost. Live conifer needles are
one of the richest and most widely-available sources for polyprenol extraction worldwide.
Solagran uses conifer needles as the starting material for its patented extraction process
and has constructed the world’s first manufacturing facility for the production of
commercial quantities of pharmaceutical grade polyprenols.

Solagran is currently in negotiations to secure distribution for products containing its
proprietary polyprenols in selected countries, and is also preparing registration
documentation for new territories.

About Solagran
Solagran Ltd is a Melbourne-based biotechnology company. It manufactures and markets a
range of unique, efficacious and proprietary products sourced from different species of
conifer trees, targeting the fast-growing natural healthcare and nutraceutical sectors.
Solagran’s competitive advantage in the sector is its long history of scientific excellence,
academic credibility and proprietary manufacturing innovations. The company’s products
range from registered pharmaceuticals, to supplements, nutraceuticals and over-the-counter
products. Solagran products are marketed in Australia, Russia, Malaysia and the UAE, and
additionally registered in Indonesia and Singapore, with negotiations underway to expand
into new territories.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 23 2015, 08:42 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi all

It looks like the website for Solagift (Solagrans Russian operation) has been updated.

Have a look here - http://translate.google.com.au/translate?h...amp;prev=search

Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 6 2015, 10:45 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Ray that email was from Pine Needle Products. Not Solagran.
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Livas1
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 10:45 AM


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Great stuff Charles, thanks
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Livas1
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 08:47 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi Sparkplug

None of that video looks Solagran related. Do we have a new competitor?
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 24 2014, 09:04 AM


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I would have thought that given Vagifs age and the amount of energy he has thrown into the company that he is laying down a plan to slowly move away from the company.

Of course he wont do that until Solagran is on a sustainable path.

A long way to go no doubt, but every journey begins with a first step.

And now we have a new CEO and potentially a new Chairman to go along with a new broker which has been appointed to raise funds for the company.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 24 2014, 08:10 AM


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Posts: 7,956

SLA announcement.

Wow!

QUOTE
Solagran announces the appointment of Dr Ian Nisbet as Non-Executive Director and
prospective Chairman.

Melbourne, Australia 24 October 2014: Solagran Ltd (ASX: SLA) announces the
appointment of Dr Ian Nisbet as a Non-Executive Director, effective immediately. Subject to
the company’s achievement of certain milestones, Dr Nisbet will assume Chairmanship of
Solagran and current Chairman and Founder, Dr Vagif Soultanov, will become a Non-
Executive Director.

“The Board of Solagran welcomes Dr Ian Nisbet as a Non-Executive Director,” said SLA
Chairman Dr Vagif Soultanov. “He has over 30 years of drug development, business
development and general management experience in the local and international
biotechnology sector and, importantly, has developed a strong understanding of Solagran’s
products and science. His experience, input and strong networks in the biotechnology,
commercial and scientific communities will assist in the company’s growth and success.”

Dr Nisbet is a co-founder and partner in the biotechnology consulting company Afandin
Pty Ltd and a co-founder and Executive Director of the oncology drug development
company Senz Oncology Pty Ltd. He has previously been CEO and Managing Director of
Xenome Ltd and Meditech Research Ltd and held senior management positions at
Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc, ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals Ltd and CSL Ltd. Ian
currently serves as Chairman of Verva Pharmaceuticals Ltd and vivoPharm Pty Ltd; and is
a non-Executive Director of Velacor Pty Ltd, Cerulean Pharma Australia Pty Ltd and
Tunitas Therapeutics Australia Pty Ltd. He also holds an appointment as Deputy Director
(Commercialisation) at the Australian Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology
(AIBN) at the University of Queensland.
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Livas1
Posted on: Oct 23 2014, 12:48 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Gday Slayer

Long time no speak! Since the good old Range days!

How time flies! I hope you are well.

Anyway, re QE, you are quite right that at this stage the Fed will be reinvesting the maturities of their holdings, but from memory the duration of their holdings (both UST and agency MBS) is quite long, so im not sure how much of an influence that is going to be?

One of the many issues I see, and something that isnt discussed much, is who is going to fund the US deficit now that the Fed is not adding to its balance sheet. I cant see any country picking up the slack that has been created by the Fed ending its POMO activities.

With deficits forecast to continue indefinitely and US treasuries only going one way and that is UP (either as rates normalise or as Kahuna thinks (and i agree) that the US is a deteriorating credit story), with the Fed out of the picture the question of who steps up to fund the US deficit remains an unanswered one...

But yes, there is no doubt for the moment that monetary policy is very accomodative and will be so for quite a while.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 16 2014, 02:31 PM


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Posts: 7,956

FYI here is Nick's presentation from a few weeks ago. (Note need to turn volume up high)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXs3eI-mcE4

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Livas1
Posted on: Oct 1 2014, 09:56 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi all
Travelling through Asia at the moment so not alot of time to look into this.
At first glance I would say utb is right... They are different companies.
Secondly, I don't think sibex would be calling in administrators. It wasn't that long ago that a presentation was posted on here showing how much progres they had made in new product development etc.
Finally, if it is "our" sibex then it may not be a bad thing. Remember sibex has been renamed "Solagift". It's on the sibex website and solagift is the registered name for the Tomsk SEZ. So over time I see a situation where Sibex as a business name is not required.
Anyway, I'm sure nothing has changed.
Good luck all.
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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 11 2014, 08:27 AM


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Posts: 7,956

From what i can gather its business as usual over in Russia...

And I can still get product in Oz....


So all in all it seems to me like the business is ticking along. I would prefer them not to spend the money to get the accounts finalised and relisting until some more progress is made with getting some meaningful cash in the door. Thats where I think they should direct the marginal dollar/rouble.
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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 8 2014, 03:10 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Mo words required... the S&P 500
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image



 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 2 2014, 04:41 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Why cant the Fed just continue to inflate its balance sheet to say $10trn over the next decade?

ie fund the US deficit?

Yes QE is having a diminishing impact but the reality is that the US government cannot find enough buyers for its debt over the next few years, as China has already signaled its not buying UST and the Social Security Trust Fund will start eating into its pool of assets to pay out benefits. This is removing two buyers of UST.

Add the Fed concluding QE and the US government may have a problem...

So the US Fed will have little choice but to continually fund the US government's deficit.

My question is - so what if the Fed's balance sheet keeps on rising???
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Aug 28 2014, 11:42 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Yep and the key part of that article is the move to Canada. Tax inversion is alive and well, even being done by one of Obama's most trusted advisers in Buffett.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Aug 25 2014, 04:16 PM


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Posts: 7,956

A long but excellent article. Well worth the read

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140825.htm


Here is the last paragraph:

As for the U.S. economy, QE-induced speculation misallocates resources that might otherwise contribute to long-run growth, and while conditions could certainly be worse, the benefits of this economic recovery have been highly uneven. Again, 40% of families report that they are “just getting by,” with the majority essentially living paycheck to paycheck without enough savings to cover even a few months of expenses. We could be, and should be doing better, except that this complex adaptive system of ours responds to good incentives as well as bad ones, and has been repeatedly crippled by policies that have produced waves of malinvestment, bubble, and collapse. The economy is starting to take on features of a winner-take-all monoculture that encourages and subsidizes too-big-to-fail banks and large-scale financial speculation at the expense of productive real investment and small-to-medium size enterprises. These are outcomes that our policy makers at the Fed have single-handedly chosen for us in the well-meaning belief that the economy is helped by extraordinary financial distortions. The Federal Reserve is right to wind down quantitative easing, and would best terminate reinvestment of maturing holdings, ideally beginning in October or quickly thereafter. The issue is not whether the U.S. economy does or does not need “life support.” The issue is that QE is not life support in the first place.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Aug 12 2014, 05:05 PM


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Posts: 7,956

And further to the below here is the summary from the report. That last point mirrors what Mark has been saying about social security.

http://www.usmayors.org/metroeconomies/201...ey-findings.pdf


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Aug 12 2014, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

FYI..

QUOTE
U.S. jobs rose since '08 crisis, but pay is 23 pct less: report

(Reuters) - Jobs growth in the U.S. since the 2008 recession has been undermined by lower wages, with workers earning an average 23 percent less than earnings from jobs which were lost, a report by an organization representing U.S. cities said on Monday.

The average annual salary in sectors where jobs were lost - particularly manufacturing and construction - during the 2008-9 financial crisis was $61,637, according to the report by the United States Conference of Mayors (USCM), which represents cities with populations of more than 30,000.

Job gains through the second quarter of 2014 in comparative sectors showed average wages of $47,171, implying $93 billion in lower wage income, the report said.

The report also showed that the majority of metro areas - 73 percent - had households earning salaries of less than $35,000 a year.

The latest monthly employment data from the Labor Department showed that more than 200,000 jobs were created for the sixth straight month in July, but that wages were about flat in the private sector.

American workers, on average, earned $24.45 an hour in July, up only a penny from June. Over the last year, wages have grown just 2 percent, in keeping with where they have been stuck since late 2009.

For a link to the USCM press release and report: www.usmayors.org/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Aug 1 2014, 10:13 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi guys

I dont want to get too off track on the SUDA / Merrill Lynch discussion, but my opinion is this:

If you look in that file it shows that there is a prime brokerage agreement between Merrill Lynch and Regal Funds Management. My assumption, and this could be way off, is that as part of the overall agreement between ML and Regal, ML have taken as security Regal's shareholding in SUDA as security for something else?

I could be completely way off im not sure. What I do know is that since Merrill Lynch and others entered the register in October 2013 there has been plenty of HFT/bot trading typically by selling tiny parcels into the bid resulting in a drop of the share price.

Whether these two activities are related or not im not sure.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Jun 24 2014, 03:07 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Speaking of inflation

Came across this yesterday


Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Jun 23 2014, 04:30 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Good short article re China and U.S. mapping out different paths...



QUOTE
Stephen Roach Warns "The US Is Trapped In Perils Of Linear Thinking"

Authored by Stephen Roach - former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia

The temptations of extrapolation are hard to resist. The trend exerts a powerful influence on markets, policymakers, households, and businesses. But discerning observers understand the limits of linear thinking, because they know that lines bend, or sometimes even break. That is the case today in assessing two key factors shaping the global economy: the risks associated with America’s policy gambit and the state of the Chinese economy.

Quantitative easing, or QE (the Federal Reserve’s program of monthly purchases of long-term assets), began as a noble endeavor – well timed and well articulated as the Fed’s desperate antidote to a wrenching crisis. Counterfactuals are always tricky, but it is hard to argue that the liquidity injections of late 2008 and early 2009 did not play an important role in saving the world from something far worse than the Great Recession.

The combination of product-specific funding facilities and the first round of quantitative easing sent the Fed’s balance sheet soaring to $2.3 trillion by March 2009, from its pre-crisis level of $900 billion in the summer of 2008. And the deep freeze in crisis-ravaged markets thawed.

The Fed’s mistake was to extrapolate – that is, to believe that shock therapy could not only save the patient but also foster sustained recovery. Two further rounds of QE expanded the Fed’s balance sheet by another $2.1 trillion between late 2009 and today, but yielded little in terms of jump-starting the real economy.

This becomes clear when the Fed’s liquidity injections are compared with increases in nominal GDP. From late 2008 to May 2014, the Fed’s balance sheet increased by a total of $3.4 trillion, well in excess of the $2.6 trillion increase in nominal GDP over the same period. This is hardly “Mission accomplished,” as QE supporters claim. Every dollar of QE generated only 76 cents of nominal GDP.

Unlike the United States, which relied largely on its central bank’s efforts to cushion the crisis and foster recovery, China deployed a CN¥4 trillion fiscal stimulus (about 12% of its 2008 GDP) to jump-start its sagging economy in the depths of the crisis. Whereas the US fiscal stimulus of $787 billion (5.5% of its 2009 GDP) gained limited traction, at best, on the real economy, the Chinese effort produced an immediate and sharp increase in “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects that boosted the fixed-investment share of GDP from 44% in 2008 to 47% in 2009.

To be sure, China also eased monetary policy. But such efforts fell well short of those of the Fed, with no zero-interest-rate or quantitative-easing gambits – only standard reductions in policy rates (five cuts in late 2008) and reserve requirements (four adjustments).

The most important thing to note is that there was no extrapolation mania in Beijing. Chinese officials viewed their actions in 2008-2009 as one-off measures, and they have been much quicker than their US counterparts to face up to the perils of policies initiated in the depths of the crisis. In America, denial runs deep.

Unlike the Fed, which continues to dismiss the potential negative repercussions of QE on asset markets and the real economy – both at home and abroad – China’s authorities have been far more cognizant of new risks incurred during and after the crisis. They have moved swiftly to address many of them, especially those posed by excess leverage, shadow banking, and property markets.

The jury is out on whether Chinese officials have done enough. I think that they have, though I concede that mine is a minority view today. In the face of the current growth slowdown, China might well have reverted to its earlier, crisis-tested approach; that it did not is another example of the willingness of its leaders to resist extrapolation and chart a different course.

China has already delivered on that front by abandoning a growth model that had successfully guided the country’s economic development for more than 30 years. It recognized the need to switch from a model that focused mainly on export- and investment-led production (via manufacturing) to one led by private consumption (via services). That change will give China a much better chance of avoiding the dreaded “middle-income trap,” which ensnares most developing economies, precisely because their policymakers mistakenly believe that the recipe for early-stage takeoff growth is sufficient to achieve developed-country status.

The US and Chinese cases do not exist in a vacuum. As I stress in my new book, the codependency of China and America ties them together inextricably. The question then arises as to the consequences of two different policy strategies – American stasis and Chinese rebalancing.

The outcome is likely to be an “asymmetrical rebalancing.” As China changes its economic model, it will shift from surplus saving to saving absorption – deploying its assets to fund a social safety net and thereby temper fear-driven precautionary household saving. Conversely, America seems intent on maintaining its current course – believing that the low-saving, excess-consumption model that worked so well in the past will continue to operate smoothly in the future.

There will be consequences in reconciling these two approaches. As China redirects its surplus saving to support its own citizens, it will have less left over to support saving-short Americans. And that is likely to affect the terms on which the US attracts foreign funding, leading to a weaker dollar, higher interest rates, rising inflation, or some combination of all three. In response, America’s economic headwinds will stiffen all the more.

It is often said that a crisis should never be wasted: Politicians, policymakers, and regulators should embrace the moment of deep distress and take on the heavy burden of structural repair. China seems to be doing that; America is not. Codependency points to an unavoidable conclusion: The US is about to become trapped in the perils of linear thinking.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Jun 17 2014, 09:38 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Thanks Mark
One issue which i don't think many appreciate is what the emptying of the social security trust fund (SSTF) will mean for the funding of the US debt.
At the moment there is over $4trn of US government debt that is held by the SSTF. As the call on these assets intensifies (as outflows become greater than inflows) and the principal is eaten into, this pool of assets gets smaller and smaller and one day, as you say, it will be zero.
Therefore, all things being equal, the US treasury is going to have to find someone else to step in and by the UST and notes that the social security trust fund has been buying.
An extra $4trn!!
Less demand means yields go up. And if the SSTF buyer cant be replaced, yields go up in a big way.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Jun 17 2014, 05:45 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

Many thanks for your continued insights.

I have been spending quite a bit of time looking into a lot of the information you presented in your first 5 acts.

I just wanted to make two quick comments

Firstly, your comment about the $1.6trn MBS that the Fed has bought from the banks which translates to a capital benefit of $320bn I do not believe is entirely correct. I have no issues with the $1.6trn but rather your interpretation of the $320bn in that it means US banks have been granted a capital benefit by this amount.
The $320bn relates to the reduction in RWA (risk weighted assets) that capital is held against. It doesnt reduce the amount of capital required by $320bn. If we assume that the banks are required to hold 8% capital of RWA then in the above numbers this would mean that banks are benefiting from $25.6bn in capital relief ($320bn x 8%). Anyway, FYI only.

Secondly, your comments about the Fed buying long duration UST while the Treasury department issuing short-term bills and notes is something I of course agree with.
But I have been looking at data and I expected to see that the proportion of short-term bills to longer maturity bonds to have increased considerably (ie bringing the average maturity (NOT duration) of total US debt down. This was in relation to from memory some of your comments on the fact that the US is creating a potential refinancing risk by using short term debt to fund a liability that will be there for 100 years (at least).
But what I uncovered was that this proportion of short term notes/bills has not changed that much and while the average maturity peaked at 60 months in mid/late 2011 and has come back down to 54 months now, even in late 2008 and 2009 the average maturity was under 50 months.
I was surprised that this is the case.

Thanks
Livas1
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: May 15 2014, 11:58 AM


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Posts: 7,956

Funnily enough this came through this morning from one of those spruiking emails that we all have signed up to at some stage in the past but just never get around to unsubscribing smile.gif


The Scary Deflation Monster: The Fed vs. Prosperity

Janet Yellen may be the new monetary sheriff in town, but she harbors the same old phobias her predecessors had—a fear of the scary deflation monster.

The new Fed chair told the Economics Club of New York, “The FOMC strives to avoid inflation slipping too far below its 2 percent objective because, at very low inflation rates, adverse economic developments could more easily push the economy into deflation. The limited historical experience with deflation shows that, once it starts, deflation can become entrenched and associated with prolonged periods of very weak economic performance.”

This irrational fear that prices will fall and won’t be able to get up is repeated often by Keynesians, who believe consumers will destroy aggregate demand by waiting indefinitely to buy at lower prices. In turn, lower profits will cause companies to cut expenses by laying off employees. This all leads to a downward spiral impervious to central-bank machinations—think “pushing on a string” from your Econ 101 class.

This mindset is wrongheaded at best and dangerous at worst. Profits are the difference between the price it costs to produce a good and the price that good is sold for. As economics professor Jörg Guido Hülsmann makes clear in his book Deflation and Liberty, “In a deflation, both sets of prices drop, and as a consequence for-profit production can go on.”

Lower prices increase demand; they do not reduce or delay it. That’s why more and more people own flat-screen TVs, cellphones, and laptops: the prices of these goods have fallen, and people with lower incomes can afford them. And there are a lot more low-income people than high-income people. This is not something to avoid at all costs—it’s called prosperity.

Lower prices don’t mean lower profits; nor do they mean employees will be laid off. More demand for a good or service means more employees are needed to produce those goods and services. “There is no reason why inflation should ever reduce rather than increase unemployment,” professor Hülsmann writes.

He goes on to point out that only if workers underestimate the amount of money created by the central bank and therefore reduce their real wage-rate demands will unemployment be reduced. “All plans to reduce unemployment through inflation therefore boil down to fooling the workers—a childish strategy, to say the least.”

“Deflation is one of the great scarecrows of present-day economic policy and monetary policy in particular,” Hülsmann says. It seems a nation will destroy its finances battling a non-threat.
While the monetary mandarins lie awake at night worrying about lower prices, since 1971—when Richard Nixon cut the last tether of the dollar to gold—the effect of creating more money (inflation) has showed up in exponentially higher prices. A gallon of gas was 36 cents in 1971. New-home prices averaged $28,300 that year. A dozen eggs was 53 cents. The Dow Jones Industrial Average vacillated between 790 and 950.

The average home price today is $334,000. Eggs cost $2.06 a dozen. Regular gas goes for $3.75 a gallon, and the DJIA is north of 16,700 as I write.

However, Ms. Yellen is not only not alarmed by these price increases, she wishes them to be greater—to the detriment of the average person.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: May 6 2014, 02:07 PM


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Posts: 7,956

Announcement out.

Great committment shown by the management team re the unsecured loan and suspension of director fees.

Burston committed to realising the appropriate value for our assets.

A dire position nevertheless and some cash needs to come in soon otherwise they wont be putting themselves in a strong negotiating position.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 2 2014, 01:35 PM


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You would have to think they would get a please explain from the ASX based on the quarterly. Expected outflow for next quarter is more than what is in the bank.

  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 24 2014, 10:29 PM


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Posts: 7,956

You are right pepee.
I saw the 22 April date and thought it was only a couple of days old. Didn't bother to see that it was 2013!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 24 2014, 11:12 AM


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Hard article to read at times, but a good read nevertheless

http://expert.ru/siberia/2013/16/vozvrasch...-hvojnoj-lapki/


Return coniferous boughs

Vladislav Mikhailov "Expert Siberia» № 16 (372) 22 April 2013, 00:00

Australian Solagran postponed the launch of a pharmaceutical plant in Tomsk for two years, but their plans for the production of valuable raw materials from the needles did not refuse

Resident of the Tomsk special economic zone (SEZ), the company "Solagift" (a subsidiary of the Australian Solagran and Tomsk SibEx) has postponed the commissioning of the plant for the production of pharmaceuticals from the needles in 2016. In 2013 Russian-Australian biotechnology holding planned to put into operation the first stage in the production capacity of 250 kg SEZ Polyprenols month. In annual terms, capacity of the plant designed to produce 30 tons of pine complex provitamin 20 tons of concentrate and 100 tons of water Siberian fir oil fraction. Yet deadlines for putting the plant in operation moved first in 2014 and then for 2016. "Company adjusted its plans due to financial difficulties, - said Deputy Director General of« SibEx »Vladimir mistimed. - Just have problems associated with the global crisis, we have plans of our shareholders have failed to recognize the changes. But in 2016, we plan to enter the factory in operation. Complex will be built area of ​​15 thousand square meters. Purpose - manufacture 300 kg polyprenols. Plan to reduce their cost of 500 rubles per gram. "

According to Vladimir Podkatova currently German and Australian shareholders Solagran negotiate for attracting additional investment volume of around 30 million euros. Deputy Director General SibEx also said that the company intends to build a plant not phased, and "take the money entirely on the project because building the foundation and keep it for years to come, we would not want to."

Despite the postponement of the launch of the plant, the project Solagran remains one of the most promising and ambitious for the Tomsk region. The prospect of a new generation of drugs issue, in particular, allowed the company to enter into the program of development of the Tomsk pharmaceutical cluster in the technological platform "Medicine of the Future."

Preparations from waste
The idea to do business that lies literally under our feet - on coniferous wood processing waste - sooner or later someone had to come to mind. Fifteen years ago in the Research Institute of Biology and Biophysics, Tomsk State University (TSU) has been developed has been widely used drug "Abisib", which is an aqueous extract of Siberian fir needles. Its needle broth obtained by distillation at high temperatures with steam. But in the XXI century, it is time to new technologies.

Actually, work on the isolation and study of individual substances from plant material in the Tomsk region did not stop with the mid-1980s. First results of these studies were promised a very interesting perspective, and in 2002 for implementation in the production of scientific developments Tomic company was founded SibEx. At first glance, business at the coniferous forest of spruce branches in the region had become the gold immediately. But not everything was so simple. For the production of biologically active substances from green softwood summer of 2003 began construction of a plant in an ecologically clean region of Tomsk region - in the village Semiluzhki. Already in March 2004 the market were derived carbon dioxide extracts of Siberian fir. At the same time, proposing cooperation Tomic went on Australian biotechnology company Solagran, which three years later became one of the founders SibEx.

Australians and Tomich found a common denominator in business is quite simple - the company used in the production of what everyone else thought of logging waste. Besides Solagran developed a new technology in which the raw material for the production of valuable substances were Scots pine needles and European spruce. To produce a pound of costly rework polyprenols need about five tons of freshly sawn fir branches and needles - just the very "waste" under the feet that like to complain logging companies conduct prevents logging. "The daily requirement SibEx plant is from a half to three tons of wood conifer needle, or about 360 tons per year, - says Vladimir mistimed. - Coniferous green we buy in the region, at timber enterprises within 140 km from the village Semiluzhki where plant is located. Since one cubic meter of commercial timber fir and spruce can be collected from 100 to 120 kg of pine needles. Pine can give up to 80 kg. Thus, to meet the minimum daily requirement of the plant, it is necessary to harvest 15-20 cubic meters of timber. "

Plant SibEx almost does not feel competitive, because the subjects themselves capable of creating a competitive environment, almost none. Similar companies in Russia today unity. One of them - Tikhvin wood-chemical plant in the Leningrad region, its capacity is two to three times more than Tomic. But he is working on outdated processing technologies. "At the present time for money" Rostekhnologii "similar plant is being constructed in the Irkutsk region (Tulun. - Ed.). There are a number of small businesses to process green wood in Siberia. They usually operate on the territory of large processing facilities, such as Krasnoyarsk Krai Lesosibirsk - explains mistimed. - However, the market demand for forest biochemistry products in Russia is still not satisfied. "

Today the plant in an area Semiluzhki 3.5 thousand square meters. meter runs two shops - carbon dioxide extraction and organic extraction. Scientific base develops in cooperation with St. Petersburg State Forestry University (SPbGLTU). In 2008, the company pioneered in the world industrial output polyprenols - natural Bioregulators having multifaceted biological activity - twigs of spruce. Polyprenols SibEx uses for the drug "Ropren", intended for natural regeneration of liver cells. We study the influence of this drug for the treatment of cognitive functions of the brain and other diseases. "Experts classify our products as a" living cell sap of coniferous trees, "- said Vladimir mistimed. - Today, we get 30 kg polyprenols pharmaceutical grade per month. We have reduced their cost on the market to two thousand rubles per gram. Based on them trying to create a new generation of drugs. "

Now 20, the company's portfolio of pharmaceutical products for the production of medicines and dietary supplements. Products of Siberian pine needles supplied to major cosmetic company in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg. In January 2013, together with Tomsk SibEx SAVA company started production of Phytococtails cranberry, cranberries, blueberries, hips, etc., which contain cell sap fir for immunity.

Coniferous industry has long been received ideological support Tomsk authorities as one of the innovative areas of wild plants recycling program. By producing high value-added and noticeable amount of investments in the region could not treat with indifference. And yet, as is the case in any business, in the production of "live cell juice" at a certain point not everything went smoothly.

Pitfalls
In 2008, company management and Solagran SibEx was drafted to start doing business in the special economic zone "Tomsk". In the SEZ was supposed to lead the development of technologies for processing green waste plant materials for the production of biologically active compounds. Business plan was approved by the advisory council in Moscow. Then it was decided to establish as a SEZ resident Russian-Australian subsidiary "Solagift." The company immediately announced the construction of the SEZ scientific-industrial complex for research, development, manufacture and distribution of safe and effective natural substances.

In late 2011, the Russian-Australian holding company began work on the construction of three buildings at its production site in Tomsk SEZ - administrative, housing production line to accommodate the production of pharmaceutical substances from the body and the needles on the production of medicines (Polyprenols provitamin concentrates, Siberian fir oil fractions ). It was assumed that "Solagift" (actually a division of the Russian subsidiary Solagran - «Solagran Son") will produce at the factory to 250 kg polyprenols per month, or about three thousand tons per year. The enterprise is in operation originally was scheduled for 2013. The estimated cost of the project was approximately $ 40 million. "The general designer and general contractor of the construction is the Czech Favia, - says CEO" Solagran Son "Aleksandr Kurganov. - Previously, the company has engaged in the construction business in Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Tomsk ("Pharmstandard-Tomskhimfarm"). Czech company and the design and the construction we had to invite because in Russia today there are no structures that could design the complex in accordance with GMP - Good Manufacturing Practice. We have Favia and certificate GMP, and experience in designing such productions in Russia. Subcontracted for the construction of a Finnish company Ruuki, and technology - Slovak Noving. With regard to equipment suppliers for new production, we, first of all start from the necessity of conformity GMP, so some equipment we have, in any case, will be from abroad. But we plan to attract and local producers - Kemerovo "Chimmash" Tomsk "Art Life Techno" repair-mechanical plant Siberian Chemical Combine (SCC RMZ. - Ed.) ".

Financial difficulties, indeed, moved the commissioning of the plant for the production of pharmaceuticals from the needles. OOO "Solagran Son", which is engaged in construction, addressed to the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI) to structure the transaction to raise a loan of 1.5 billion rubles. The inclusion of this production in the number of projects the agency was initiated by the mayor's office in Tomsk in 2012. The company said it intends to use all of the credit for the project in Tomsk SEZ.

But the question of money - not the only one. Procedure for approval of new pharmaceuticals, which, as is known, can not last for one year, is also able to slow down the development of the business, "Our producers need assistance at the federal level to overcome the administrative barriers in the original registration of pharmaceuticals - said vice-mayor of Tomsk Denis hammer. - Today, this has some problems: it is necessary to simplify the procedure for conducting clinical trials and help incorporate Tomsk products lists of recommended drugs Ministry of Russia. "

Despite temporary difficulties, experts believe that the Australians withdrew from Tomsk site and will work until the end. Obviously, Tomsk was chosen not only because of the business activity and competence of SibEx, but also because of the availability of a sufficient number of qualified personnel. Another factor - the proximity of raw materials, ie softwood trees. And finally - the benefits that the company receives in the special economic zone (about seven million dollars for the construction period). The complexity of the current extraction techniques polyprenols causes a high price for this product and its derivatives. This means that for the sake of future profits will be holding try to overcome the current difficulties.

Solagran Ltd was established in Melbourne in 1995 by a group of Australian businessmen and Russian scientists. Solagran - a public company engaged in the manufacture and sale of Bioeffectives (modern products of coniferous green) in Australia, South-East Asia and Russia. Russian Division of controls Ltd. "Solagran Son" (includes companies SibEx and "Solagift"). Since 2011, the company is implementing a project to build a pharmaceutical complex in a special economic zone "Tomsk". Annual project plant revenue by 2019 in the case of its commissioning in 2016 to about 30 billion rubles. Project implementation period - eight years. Will build a section of GMP-certified production area of ​​over 400 square meters. meters, to create a production line and produce experimental batches concentrates polyprenols and substances based on them in an industrial environment.
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 23 2014, 10:05 AM


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It is a welcome sight Charles

Hopefully some positive news on the way
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 22 2014, 03:59 PM


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And the sell depth has looked the lightest in recent (and not so recent!) memory!!
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 3 2014, 12:14 PM


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Nope smile.gif
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 3 2014, 09:48 AM


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Announcement out!

ASX Announcement

Appointment of Lodge Partners Pty Ltd as nominated adviser and broker

Melbourne, Australia 3 April 2014: Solagran Ltd (ASX: SLA) is pleased to announce the
appointment of Lodge Partners Pty Ltd as its nominated adviser and broker.

“Lodge Partners’ expertise in small to mid cap biotech, healthcare and life sciences made it
an ideal choice,” said SLA Chief Executive Dr Darren Schliebs. “We look forward to working
with Lodge in this important stage of the company’s development to pursue a number of
exiting growth initiatives.”

Lodge Partners will offer expert corporate advisory support, and assist in developing a new
capital management program, and building on Solagran’s existing shareholder base.
Solagran Ltd plans to have the company’s shares resume trading on the ASX at the earliest
possible time.

About Solagran

Solagran Ltd is a Melbourne-based biotechnology company that has developed an exciting
range of unique, efficacious and proprietary products naturally sourced from different species
of conifer trees, targeting the fast-growing natural healthcare and nutraceutical sectors.
Solagran’s competitive advantage in the sector is the company’s long history of scientific
excellence, academic credibility and proprietary manufacturing innovations. The company’s
products range from registered pharmaceuticals to supplements and complementary
medicines. Solagran products are in the Australian, Russian, Malaysian and the UAE
markets with current negotiations to expand into new territories.
Read more: www.solagran.com

About Lodge Partners

Lodge Partners Pty Ltd is an Australian owned stockbroker based in Melbourne. Established
in 1994, Lodge Partners has grown and evolved to become a provider of the highest level of
service in investment advice and corporate counsel. Lodge Partners has a highly
experienced equity research team dedicated to stock-specific analysis, with expertise in
small to mid capitalisation companies.

Read more: http://www.lodgepartners.com.au/
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 21 2014, 11:21 AM


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From the good folk at ZH


QUOTE
But deep down you know the truth.

In the Land of the Free, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released its 2013 Financial Report of the United States government.

This is the government’s best attempt at an honest accounting of its books. And even though they use a different accounting system that gives them special advantages, the picture is still remarkably bleak.

We all know that the US government has racked up a substantial debt; as of this morning, total outstanding public debt is $17,546,814,482,078.90. ($17.5 trillion)

But it’s not all about the debt. Debt is not necessarily evil… and it’s important to look at the situation qualitatively in addition to quantitatively.

Let’s drop a few zeros and consider this in terms of personal finance.

Assume you had $1.75 million in total debt. That sounds like a lot to most people.

But if you had $3 million in liquid assets to offset the debt, plus $500,000 in annual income to pay interest, living expenses, and just about any contingency that could come your way, you’d be in great shape.

It would be even better if that $1.75 million in debt financed a lucrative real estate investment which was generating a 25% cash-on-cash return for you.

But that’s not the case for the US government.

Despite the Obama administration touting a budget deficit of “only” $680 billion in 2013, the GAO’s more accurate accounting shows a total government cost of $3.8 trillion on total revenue of $2.8 trillion.

In other words– the administration wasn’t exactly honest with the American people– the deficit was more like $1 trillion, not $680 billion. But it gets worse.

The GAO added up ALL the US government’s assets in 2013. Aircraft carriers. The highway system. Land. Cash and financial assets. The total is $2.97 trillion.

The liabilities, on the other hand, total $19.88 trillion. This includes the official public debt, plus all sorts of IOUs and loan guarantees.

This means the net EQUITY of the US government is minus $16.9 trillion.

Moreover, the US government’s cash position is a mere $206 billion… roughly 1.1% of its public debt. This isn’t enough to cover net interest payments for the next year.

Unlike a savvy investor who borrows cheap money to purchase productive assets, the US government borrows money to pay interest.

Quantitatively AND qualitatively, the data point to an inevitable conclusion: despite all the propaganda, this is NOT a risk free environment.

And understanding these trends and consequences is absolutely critical to your long-term financial survival
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Mar 17 2014, 08:04 AM


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Hi Mark

Appreciate your thoughts. Thanks

China has widened the Yuan trading band over the weekend and last week saw a record amount of Treasuries sold by Foreign central banks (see http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-14/i...easurys-held-fe )... its all slowly moving in the direction you have been outlining for the last 6 months.

Just a point of clarification.. the last few posts you have talked about foreigners like China and Japan funding the US 30 year debt for 0.25% as well as 30 year rates being zero for 30 years.
I assume you are talking about the longer run effects of QE but could you please clarify what you mean by this?

There are a couple of phases of QE stopping. The first is the conclusion of "tapering".. ie the Fed stopping buying treasuries and MBS and therefore stopping its POMO and expanding its balance sheet.

The second is the removal of the excess reserves in the banking system and the subsequent shrinking of the fed balance sheet.
And here is where it gets interesting.

The fed are not going to sell their UST and MBS positions back into the market. That would be a negative signal having the largest holder of MBS selling stock into the market.

The Fed holding their UST and MBS positions to maturity does nothing to impact the amount of excess reserves on bank balance sheets. It doesnt reverse the initial transaction that resulted in the Fed purchase in the first place.

I cant see how excess reserves are removed by the banks via direct transactions with the fed.
It seems to me like this excess liquidity is going to stay in the system for many many years to come.
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 12 2014, 03:33 PM


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Hi Mark

Many thanks for answering my question the other week about QE and bank reserves and asset prices.
Sorry I haven’t acknowledged your post sooner. Been busy and away

Anyway, banks need to hold 50%+ capital for mortgages, so they get an agency guarantee and this capital requirement drops to 20%. Then the package a group into a MBS and voila – they now don’t need to hold ANY capital. So something that required 50% capital now requires 0%.

Quite possibly you have been understating the capital relief the banks are getting via the Fed purchases of MBS…

Mark you seem to imply that equity prices are going up because of the distorted nature of corporate and bank profits brought about by QE – eg lower interest costs boosting profits etc.
My thoughts have been a little different to yours re the diver of the market rally…. Ie with banks having excess reserves on their balance sheets, it means that the cash that they do have can now be put to work. I appreciate your comments about lending requiring capital to be put aside for it, but can’t this cash be used to purchase equities directly? Or security for derivative contracts? Ie going long equities in ways that don’t require any capital to be put aside??

Final comment. Reserves are not capital. Even if the Fed holds to maturity it doesn’t mean QE will roll off as these excess reserves are still in the banking system.

Cheers

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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 9 2014, 12:50 PM


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Hopefully the company can divert some of the funding they are getting towards paying the auditors whats needed to get the accounts done for the last couple of years.

That would be a good first step prior to relisting the shares.

Next step would be to get some cash in the bank to pay for operating expenses.
And yes, this news from Russia makes this a far easier prospect.

And Unilever would no doubt be very interested that Solagran will be significantly expanding its production capacity!
Hopefully they will be still be interested given it will take a couple of years for the plant to be built.

But all of a sudden, there is a clear path towards a sustainable business with major key customers.

And also, got some Tiaga Professional on friday. Branding looks great!

Cheers
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 7 2014, 06:42 AM


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Last I heard the company was down to one of three for the funding and a decision was to be made by the end of feb.
This is VERY good news
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 6 2014, 02:58 PM


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Try great earth on Swanson street.
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 3 2014, 07:57 AM


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Given today is the first trading day in March, I suppose we could say "happy" 2 year anniversary of the suspension...

Im sure the company is working hard to get things back on track and the shares trading again

All the best everyone
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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 28 2014, 01:04 PM


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FYI

images.businessweek.com/mz/11/10/1110_mz_49meekerusainc.pdf

and some of the high level points here: http://www.kpcb.com/insights/2012-usa-inc-key-points

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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 26 2014, 01:06 PM


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Many thanks Mark. Will have a read this evening.

So are you still going to post Act 6 on here....despite its length?
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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 26 2014, 08:45 AM


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one day one day

smile.gif
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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 24 2014, 08:00 PM


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Hi Mark
No doubt you have had some fun reading the transcripts from the 2008 Fed meetings.
I was hoping to get your thoughts on QE for a second.
I have spent a lot of time reading and trying to get a handle on the flow of money that occurs as part of QE, but one thing still doesn't 100% sit clearly with me.
And that is the notion of excess reserves that are on bank balance sheets.
In aggregate, the total amount of reserves (including excess) of all the banks equal the reserves at the central bank. These excess reserves do not result in credit creation.
So how is QE, via these excess reserves, boosting asset prices (ie equities?). Are these reserves being used as security for derivative transactions? Or are these physical excess reserves being used to buy assets? If so, I don't see how that can be given the total amount of reserves in the banking system need to balance with the fed.
Any insight is appreciated.



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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 19 2014, 03:23 PM


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Broker report produced on SUDA with a valuation of 17c vs a current price of 6.5c!

Its a commissioned report but not paid for by the company. It was commissioned by one of the brokers in Oz who dont have a biotech analyst.

Very good reading - especially considering the discounting applied.

http://www.sudaltd.com.au/attachments/arti...uary%202014.pdf

Hopefully the company announces this to the broader market place as it could be the tipping point. A very compelling read and investment proposition that IMO is still flying under the radar.
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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 13 2014, 07:39 PM


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Thanks Mark
I get it now. It's a little different than here
Here when one of the banks want to issue a MBS they get say 1bn of loans and then park them in a SPV which is funded by investors such as bond funds and other banks. This SPV is the MBS. For sake of simplicity the investor buys the pool of mortgages from the bank.
Over in the US what it appears to be the case is one of the agencies buy the mortgages from the banks that generate the loan, whack their guarantee on the pool of mortgages and package them into a MBS, and then investors such as bond funds can buy them from the agency.
That's my conclusion.
Thanks again.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 13 2014, 06:25 PM


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Hi
Thanks. Yes it does.
I'm clear on the capital relief the banks get by having the fed buy MBS from them, but I suppose I'm trying to work out who originated the MBS in the first place.
Are you saying that the banks are doing the same thing with MBS as they are with UST? Ie with UST they are buying them from the Treasury and selling them to the fed, and here they are buying them from the agencies and then selling them to fed?
Thanks
One final point of clarification if I could..
You say "things will revert over time to normal and banks will again have to enter and hold more of these assets."
Is that because the agencies will continue to issue MBS and the banks are the natural buyers of these?

Thanks again
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 13 2014, 04:39 PM


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Hi Mark

In one of your pieces you talked about how banks capital levels are inflated by the fed purchases of MBS as part of its QE program.

According to the fed:

QUOTE
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs/ambs_faq.html

What types of agency MBS will the Desk purchase?
Agency MBS purchases will likely be concentrated in newly-issued agency MBS in the To-Be-Announced (TBA) market because these securities have greater liquidity and are closely tied to primary mortgage rates. The Desk may purchase other agency MBS if market conditions warrant. Only fixed-rate agency MBS securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae are eligible assets for purchase. These eligible assets include, but are not limited to, 30-year and 15-year securities of these issuers. Ineligible assets include CMOs, REMICs, Trust IOs/Trust POs and other mortgage derivatives or cash equivalents.


So the fed can only purchase agency MBS or agency guaranteed MBS

Are you saying that when banks like BofA, Wells Fargo, etc securitise mortgages, that they all get a guarantee from one of these agencies? And therefore most of the MBS the fed has been buying has been agency guaranteed MBS vs agency originated (& guaranteed) MBS?

Or does it relate to the role of the primary dealer function between the fed and purchasing MBS? (ie the banks are the primary dealers and they sell these to the fed)

Im just trying to understand your assumptions of the commercial banks (Wells, BofA etc) role in the MBS purchases by the Fed, as to me its a little unclear

Many thanks

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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 13 2014, 10:52 AM


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LOL. Had a good chuckle!!

Quantitative Easing Explained:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGIvw7T0GPI

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 12 2014, 07:51 PM


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Just came across this article in Forbes magazine from mid last year.
At least someone else is paying attention..
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/...-doesnt-matter/
The Federal Reserve Will Lose Billions But It Just Doesn't Matter
In May the Fed lost $155 billion in paper value on its $3.2 trillion portfolio of assets. That means the Federal Reserve's capital resources of $55 billion would have been wiped out nearly three times over had it been necessary for the central bank to mark its portfolio to market, or to sell a large amount of its $3.2 trillion holdings.Don't run for cover. The Fed does not have to mark its portfolio to market, nor recognize the loss in value. In fact, the Fed has not sold any of the U.S. government securities it owns; not the $560 billion in one- to five-year Treasury paper, or the $870 billion of five- to 10-year government securities, or for that matter any of the $1.7 trillion U.S. Treasuries maturing in more than 10 years.The Fed does not have to sell any of these securities right now, because with quantitative easing still its official policy, the central bank is on schedule to accumulate another $45 billion in Treasuries in June, bringing its total ownership up just a nudge above 15% of all the Treasury securities that exist. Sovereign wealth funds and foreign central banks, like those of Japan and Chin, own 50% of all U.S. government securities.

The Fed faces potential paper losses of roughly $3 billion for every one-hundredth of a percentage point increase in yield, but it has a clever arrangement with the Treasury that enables it never to recognize these losses, because it would wipe out the whole of its capital base. Technically, the Fed will never be insolvent and it won't recognize any losses unless it actually sells some of its holdings at lower price than it paid for them.

The Fed worked out an arrangement with the Treasury Department in 2010 that allows it to avoid the risk of actually having to report a loss. Bob Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors and a former Atlanta Fed official, tells me that the Fed simply puts the paper losses into a deferred asset account, and as the interest payments on the debt from the Treasury accumulate, they would reduce the size of the deferred asset. In other words, the deferred asset is simply treated as a claim against future Treasury payments to the Fed.

Eisebeis worries that this means Fed remittances to the Treasury will be smaller in the future, and the federal deficit will be larger. In 2012 the Fed remitted to the Treasury some $82 billion from the receipt of interest payments on its portfolio. If QE is ended or substantially reduced in dollar terms, the result will be that "the taxpayers will have to make up the losses on the Fed's portfolio, explains the Cumberland Advisors economist.

"How will this look abroad?" he asks me, suggesting that some foreign central banks may get wary of the U.S. financial strength because the Fed's capital account has in some potentially dangerous way been compromised.

Don't worry too much, says James Bianco of Bianco Research. The highly respected Treasury bond expert in Chicago tells me definitively, "the market will not care. It did not care about the ECB's holdings of Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian bonds last year when they were sitting on massive unrealized losses and probably in a negative equity position. Why should it be any different with the Fed?"




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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 12 2014, 12:11 PM


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Hi Wren

Mark has shown statistics (and I have seen these independently) that state that demographics are NOT the reason the participation rate in the US has been falling. In fact, the so called retirees are actually working more!

The age group of people that are leaving the workforce are what we could consider prime working age people - ie 18-45.

These people are not retiring - they cant find a job, or are on disability insurance/welfare payments.
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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 12 2014, 09:52 AM


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Hi Mark

Not sure if you have seen this but the Philly fed has put out the attached analysis which explains that retirement is the main cause of the drop in the US participation rate. I note that Yellen said the same thing last night.

What are these guys smoking?!


QUOTE
Analyzing people’s reasons for not participating in the labor force provides a relatively
clear idea of the causes of declines in the labor force participation rate. The number of disabled
persons has been steadily rising; retirement had not played much of a role until around 2010, at
which point it started to make a large impact on the overall participation rate. In particular, the
decline in the participation rate in the past one-and-a-half years (when the unemployment rate
declined faster than expected) is mostly due to retirement. Furthermore, nonparticipation due to
enrollment in school has been another significant contributor to the secular decline in the
participation rate since 2000.

There is no question that more workers dropped out of the labor force due to
discouragement during and after the Great Recession and that there are more discouraged workers
now than before the recession. These facts clearly reflect the continued weakness of the U.S.
labor market. However, it is not clear whether the overall participation rate will increase any time
soon, given that the underlying downward trend due to retirement is likely to continue.



http://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-da...pation-rate.pdf

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 5 2014, 03:34 PM


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Hi Mark

Thanks for your reply

You initially threw me off guard by your comment that the Fed has been buying all the treasuries recently issued by the US Treasury bc I came across this:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12851.htm

QUOTE
Why doesn't the Federal Reserve just buy Treasury securities directly from the U.S. Treasury?

The Federal Reserve Act specifies that the Federal Reserve may buy and sell Treasury securities only in the "open market." The Federal Reserve meets this statutory requirement by conducting its purchases and sales of securities chiefly through transactions with a group of major financial firms--so-called primary dealers--that have an established trading relationship with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). These transactions are commonly referred to as open market operations and are the main tool through which the Federal Reserve adjusts its holdings of securities. Conducting transactions in the open market, rather than directly with the Treasury, supports the independence of the central bank in the conduct of monetary policy. Most of the Treasury securities that the Federal Reserve has purchased have been "old" securities that were issued by the Treasury some time ago. The prices for new Treasury securities are set by private market demand and supply conditions through Treasury auctions.



But after some investigation my understanding that what you are referring to are the POMO that have been occurring almost daily

See http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/dis...p;opertype=orig

As you are no doubt aware there are 3 parties that bid in the auctions - Primary Dealers, Direct bidders, and In-Direct bidders

So, are the Fed via its POMO just buying stock from the Primary dealers and also Direct bidders? Indirect bidders include foreign central banks that are buying in the primary market, so i cant see them flipping the stock so quickly.

So my assumption is that it is via this POMO activity that the fed is executing its QE policy in respect of buying UST and MBS, but I cannot see how they are funding the entire amount of new issues of UST given the participation of the Indirect bidders - ie foreign central banks. When you look at the auction data the indirect bid is still a meaningful amount of the total accepted bid.

So when you say they are buying more than the amount of the new issues, you mean they are buying WAY more than the amount of new issues because some of those new issues are still landing in the hands of off-shore instos like central banks?

Think I answered my own question but any clarification is appreciated when you get a sec

Thanks



  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Feb 5 2014, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

Found this attachment on my travels re the TAIGA brand. Must be getting close to a launch!





Attached File(s)
Attached File  taiga_brochure.pdf ( 1.46MB ) Number of downloads: 4846

 
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Jan 31 2014, 01:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

I was hoping you could explain some of the actions of the fed as I am a little confused after reading your posts and also your comments in Act 5.

Early on in Act 5 you say the following

QUOTE
Last few years and in
2014, we see them issuing bonds 10 and 30 years each month. I suspect they
issue in NET new debt 30 billion a month which is 10 and 30 years so they are
covering each year LESS than the debt is being racked up each year.
So despite the US Treasury knowing the debt is going to increase 500 billion if not
700 billion in 2014, they are only issuing long-term debt of LESS than the
amount its being increased by.


What do you mean that they are covering less than the debt is being racked up? How else do they fund their deficit?

Then later you say:

QUOTE
In 2011-2013 virtually every bond it issued was added to the US
Federal reserves balance sheet as it went longer and longer.
Any coverage of a liquidity problem or debt or
borrowing for a longer term was totally reversed by the US federal reserve.


So I have a question re this. You say that that the fed has been buying all the UST issued by the US treasury. But I thought the fed was stepping into the public market place and buying UST? Are you saying that my assumption is wrong and that the fed has been funding the ENTIRE amount of new issues by the UST while the QE programmes have been in place?

QUOTE
US treasury issues 10 year bonds, US fed
buys them all. Despite this the interest rate has moved against them STILL.
Same for 30 year bonds !! US treasury issues them US fed buys them. So the
funding the US government has in place is very short term in nature mainly in
the very short end of the curve. In fact in the 2-3 year region.


You say that the fed is buying 10yr and 30yr bonds issued by the US treasury but that they are issuing 2-3 year bonds. Im confused? Is the US treasury only issuing short-end bonds? Or are you saying that the average duration of the US outstanding debt is 2-3 years?

If you are at all able to clarify the above that would be very very helpful

Thanks
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Jan 31 2014, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

Yesterday I finished reading your 5 acts.

Wow!

I would like to personally thank you for sharing your insights, research, and hard work in putting these together. I really truly honestly appreciate it.

I have a question on QE which I will post when I have some time, but in the meantime I wanted to publicly thank you and let you know that what you have done is appreciated.

Thanks
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Jan 17 2014, 08:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

Honesty is the best policy. Always...

On another matter...


QUOTE
Spain Sells Bonds at Record-Low Yield as Rajoy Touts Rebound

Spain auctioned three-year notes at the lowest yield on record as bonds from Europe’s most-indebted nations rallied and the government upgraded its assessment of the Iberian country’s economy.

The Treasury sold notes maturing in April 2017 at an average yield of 1.595 percent, the lowest at a three-year auction since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 2004. The sale, which also included debt due in 2026 and 2028, raised 5.91 billion euros ($8 billion), the largest amount for an auction of bonds in a single day since January 2012.

Securities from the euro region’s periphery are surging as their economies recover from the debt crisis that sparked a recession and pushed borrowing costs to euro-era records. Spain’s expansion probably accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said this week.

“Getting cheaper funding is important in making debt sustainable,” said Ciaran O’Hagan, head of European rates strategy at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “If interest rates fall Spain gets cheaper and cheaper levels at each auction and that does help to restore confidence in the longer-term outlook,” he said.

Sustained Growth

Spain auctioned the 2026 bonds at an average yield of 3.98 percent. It sold the 2028 securities at a yield of 4.20 percent, little changed from the previous offering last week. The amount raised exceeded its 5.5 billion-euro maximum target.

A Spanish national flag hangs from an apartment block near drying washing hanging on a line in Madrid.
The nation’s 10-year yield fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.74 percent at 11:36 a.m. London time. It reached 3.67 percent on Jan. 9, the least since 2006.

Spain’s increased competitiveness “is the root of a solid and sustainable economic growth in the future,” Rajoy told members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. “It’s the axis of a vigorous, healthy and long-lasting economy.”

Ireland raised 3.75 billion euros selling 10-year bonds via banks last week, returning to financial markets after completing a three-year bailout program. Portugal is planning to resume auctions of bonds in the first half of this year and Greece, which sold bills this week at the lowest rate in more than three years, has said it may sell five-year notes in the second half.

BlackRock Inc., which had $4.1 trillion of assets under management as of Sept. 30, bought Irish and Portuguese bonds at sales last week, Michael Krautzberger, head of European fixed income at the firm, said two days ago.

Euro-area industrial production rose 1.8 percent in November, the biggest increase since May 2010, the European Union’s statistics office said this week. A separate report last week showed economic confidence in the region improved in December to the highest since July 2011.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Jan 16 2014, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Mark has talked about the part rate in the US a fair bit, well todays Aussie number showed a decline as well of 0.2%.

Attached is a chart showing the part rates in the US and Oz. Orange line is Oz. White line is US.

Both trending the same way, just a different magnitude in the US....
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 20 2013, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Just got on the SibEX website and it has been updated.

the homepage actually has a big logo of Solagift (which you may recall is the Russian entity we set up to participate in the Tomsk SEZ)

It also says this

QUOTE
LLC "Solagift" develops and manufactures new biologically active substance of coniferous green trees for pharmacological, food, cosmetic, and agricultural industries, as well as ready-treatment products on the basis of these substances.


In the news section there is also an ad saying they are looking for distributors as well, in addition to them launching a bioeffective air freshener!!

And also, the key guys presented in Moscow at the end of November

QUOTE
"Healthy Generation XXI century. Innovations in practice. "

November 30, 2013 in Moscow held International Scientific and Practical Conference "Healthy Generation XXI century. Innovations in practice. "

The conference was attended by representatives of LLC "Solagift."

A report on "Polyprenols conifers: prevalence, biological activity" made ​​Viktor Roschin, scientific director of the Department of LLC "Solagift" Doctor of Chemical Sciences, Professor, Head of Department, St. Petersburg Forestry Academy. SM Kirov, St. Petersburg.

The report entitled "Therapeutic and prophylactic activity polyprenols and their application in hepatology, oncology and urology" by Vladimir G. Bespalov, scientific consultant for "Solagift" oncologist, MD, member of the International Academy of Ecology, Man and nature, the head of the laboratory and cancer chemoprevention onkofarmakologii FGBI "Oncology Institute. NN Petrova, "the Ministry of Health of Russia, St. Petersburg.

A report on: "Polyprenols therapy neurological and psychiatric disorders "by Vladimir Borisovich Cowards, director of the medical department of LLC" Solagift. "


So looks like things are still happening and I wonder whether the rebranding to Solagift and away from SibEX means that things are happening on the Tomsk SEZ side...!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 10 2013, 02:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

re the US employment situation, the Philly Fed put out a paper a few weeks ago titled "On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate"

http://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-da...pation-rate.pdf

Thought you may be interested in the findings!

QUOTE
The main findings are summarized as follows.

1. Between the first quarter of 2000 and the second quarter of 2013, the participation
rate declined 3.9 percentage points. Roughly 65 percent of the decline is accounted
for by retirement and disability. The increase in nonparticipation due to retirement
has occurred only after 2010, while nonparticipation due to disability has been
steadily increasing over the last 13 years, except for the last few years.

2. The number of those who did not look for a job (thus being out of the labor force)
even though they want a job increased significantly between the fourth quarter of
2007 and the fourth quarter of 2011. This group of “discouraged workers” explains
roughly one-quarter of the total decline (2.5 percentage points) in the participation
rate over the same period. Between the first quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of
2013, the participation rate of this group has been roughly flat.

3. The decline in the participation rate since the first quarter of 2012 is entirely
accounted for by increases in nonparticipation due to retirement
. This implies that the
decline in the unemployment rate since 2012 is not due to more discouraged workers
dropping out of the labor force.


4. The likelihood of those who left the labor force due to retirement or disability
rejoining the labor force is small and has been largely insensitive to business cycle
conditions in the past, suggesting that the decision to leave the labor force for those
two reasons is more or less permanent.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 10 2013, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Have a look for yourself bb smile.gif

https://www.facebook.com/pineneedleproducts/wall
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 10 2013, 10:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi everyone

Looks like the SLA team have been busy and are relaunching Bio A in Oz under the brand Taiga Professional!!!

The pine needle product guys have posted some photos on their facebook page which I have copied below

The branding etc looks excellent

Why Taiga? Check this out - it makes perfect sense: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiga

and IMO its pronounced "tiger"

Good work everyone. Be interesting to see how they progress over the coming months!
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

Attached Image


 
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 9 2013, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Great to see the Bergen agreement being postponed as per todays announcement. I firmly believe it will be cancelled when the 6 month postponement is up.

The company doesnt need this type of funding anymore and there will be no more Bergen selling on market to fund the next tranche to the company.
This cannot be a bad thing!

The intriguing thing for me is who took the bulk of the insto placement from around a month ago. No sub shareholder notice has been released for the bulk of the placement and my working assumption is that those parties (or party?) have been continuing to buy on market hence the delay in disclosure.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 6 2013, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mick

The banks have significantly reduced their reliance on overseas wholesale funding since coming out of the GFC.

The proportion of retail deposits has increased to around 60% vs well under 50% pre-GFC. ST wholesale funding has also declined and the balance is made up domestic and overseas bonds as well as securitisation and covered bonds.

I actually think that if we had a global event like in 2008 then not only would the AAA sovereign that is Australia guarantee bank debt, but the yield enhancement on offer to global investors (eg SWF) when compared to US and Europe would be sufficient to ensure that banks can still access overseas capital markets.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 4 2013, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

VERY interesting and thought provoking post

QUOTE
For me a 1% above any cash rate is about it so with a cash rate above 2% we will not go below 3% 10 years. One day maybe but we have our own issues and that namely is housing prices.

This GAP however as I wrote about in 2007 has GONE and I was hoping USA would NOT adopt this zero interest rate thing, but they did. If they had normal rates, above inflation or even close to it, I do wonder if Australia may have actually gone below them soon.

Still it may happen in 2014. Australia we are debating over a 300 billion debt ceiling being raised federally. Its around 21% of our GDP. USA is ignoring something 5 times larger.

Sorry sidetracked hopefully answers the cash and carry trade, you buy something with a higher yield. Can be a currency play when AUD was 8% and US was 5% same thing. Even now we are vastly higher than them but not where it counts. LONG term funding. Our cash rate is already 2.5% above theirs so the shape of it where their cash is zero and their 10 years is 2.76% . Australia with a cash rate at 2.5% and the 10 years yielding 4.32% is LESS of a gap than the USA.



I imagine that if there is a big bond market sell off in the US then our bond market may actually rally. One reason being the demand for AAA sovereign paper as I mentioned the other day, the other is that in such a scenario that you point out, growth would obviously be severely impacted and the RBA would have the scope to cut cash rates and thus bring the whole yield curve down.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 3 2013, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Great to see SUDA get a bit of press in the Herald Sun today! lmaosmiley.gif Not that it has helped the share price at all mind you weirdsmiley.gif


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/in-th...7-1226773710803

QUOTE
Malaria meds compete with dysfunction in pharmaceutical market


JOHN BEVERIDGE HERALD SUN DECEMBER 03, 2013 12:00AM

WHICH medicine would you rather market - a highly portable malaria treatment for children that could save millions of lives or a faster treatment for erectile dysfunction?

Suda Ltd doesn't have to choose because it is developing both but the depressing fact of pharmaceutical life is that the big commercial returns do not necessarily correlate with the humanitarian need.

The erectile dysfunction market is estimated at about $4.1 billion a year while the malaria treatment market is about $500 million, largely reflecting the wealth of those suffering the problem rather than the size of the clinical need given that malaria kills about 640,000 people a year.

Fortunately the malaria treatment, called Artimist and delivered with a simple spray under the tongue, is the most advanced of Suda's product lines after coming through phase three testing on 150 children in multiple African sites with flying colours.

Compared to intravenous quinine which only worked in 41 per cent of cases, Artimist reduced parasite count by greater than 90 per cent in 96 per cent of patients in 24 hours.

Executive chairman Stephen Carter said the real advantage of Artimist was the ease of use with the spray much more portable, easy to use and more durable in hot climates.

"When children are dehydrated and sick, this will allow them to be treated quickly and easily in their village rather than the dangers and disruption of travelling,'' said Stephen.

Suda is hoping to move to a trade sale or licensing deal of Artimist with a large pharmaceutical company by the second half of 2014 so it can concentrate on its remaining oral spray formulations of popular drugs.

While Sildenafil, the active ingredient in viagra, is possibly one of the most awaited, other promising sprays include fast treatments for migraine headache, chemotherapy caused nausea and vomiting, hypertension and pre-procedural anxiety.

Suda is a speculative buy that combines a third world social conscience with some high potential first world commercial drugs.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Dec 2 2013, 07:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

Many thanks again for your continued insights.

If the Chinese and others start meaningfully selling long duration UST on the back of the concerns you raise re their budget and fiscal position, I can envisage the global demand for AAA rated Australian government bonds significantly increasing like they did last year when our bond market rallied pricing the 10 year gov bond under 3%.

This would put significant pressure on the USD.

If there is global buying of our gov bonds then wouldn’t our currency be well bid vs the USD and not falling like the RBA jawboning is trying to achieve?

Thanks
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 29 2013, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Good work Nifty.

Its a nice looking weekly chart.

More than 15% has changed hands over the past 2 weeks and it would appear we have someone/parties building a decent stake in the company.

IMO we havent had clarity on who has bought most of the insto placement because these guys are buying on market.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 25 2013, 08:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Melbourne, Australia, 25 November 2013.
Melbourne Healthcare and Wellness Company Solagran Limited (ASX: SLA), is pleased to announce the appointment of Dr. Darren Schliebs as Chief Executive Officer.
Dr. Schliebs is an experienced senior executive in the biotechnology and health sectors who has developed a unique blend of expertise and experience in technology and research management, business development, strategy, stakeholder relations and team leadership. Dr. Schliebs is highly qualified in business, with a Masters in Business Administration from the Australian Graduate School of Management, and science, having completed a Doctorate in Organic Chemistry from the Australian National University. Dr. Schliebs has also published several articles in the scientific and popular science literature and is the author on a granted patent.
"The Board is very pleased that Darren Schliebs is joining Solagran as Chief Executive Officer," commented SLA Chairman Dr. Vagif Soultanov. "He has developed a career in supporting, managing, partnering and commercialising research outcomes and biotechnology and healthcare products in sectors of great relevance to Solagran. Darren's technical and industry knowledge, operational background, and networks will aid the delivery of key milestones, such as capital raising and new distribution partnerships, to maintain an important focus on delivering shareholder value."
Dr Schliebs senior management experience includes start-up biotechnology / healthcare companies (Alchemia Limited and Progen Pharmaceuticals) to billion-dollar revenue (CSR Limited), and most recently reported to the board and CEO of leading Australian complementary medicine and dietary supplement company Integria Healthcare in a business transformation role.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 25 2013, 07:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Amazing that in the midst of an 18 month + suspension the company has been able to attract a new CEO.
It's great to see someone with some business acumen join the organisation and I would imagine they would complement Vagif's strengths and visions for how broad based the bioeffectives take up can be very well.
Sends a message to me that there has been significant progress since the shares were suspended (otherwise why would he join as CEO) and probably for the very first time signals that Vagif has some sort of exit plan in place, however long that may be.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 21 2013, 07:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi nifty
It certainly had a good day today with a pick up in volume.
I have been a believer all along that SUDA should have a much higher share price and the only reason this hasn't taken place is because of a lack of awareness.
To the company's credit they managed to raise $5,6m from instos and I think this may be the tipping point that has boosted this awareness.
What happens tomorrow is anyone's guess but the increase in price and volume is encouraging. SUDA does have a great product suite and has achieved some significant milestones as well as having a profitable operating business. Pretty unique in biotech space IMO
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 20 2013, 09:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Well mate the gap that appeared from the price action last Wednesday is now closed following the down move yesterday so we now have support at 3.7 and resistance at 4.7 (4.3 on a closing basis) but for me I think its going higher.
We had bot action for a couple of days and also some premarket shenanigans as well so all of that points towards entities trying to manufacture a lower price to pick up stock.
We shall see !!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 19 2013, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

It was suggested that I watch this interview with Richard Koo who is the chief economist from Nomura.
He talks about a balance sheet recession and what it means when the private sector is not borrowing despite the incentive to do so via low rates. He talks about a rare situation where the private sector is more focused on minimising debt rather than maximising profits and that is the situation we are in currently.
QE won't work because it is adding to the supply of money, and the problem is the lack of demand.
http://youtu.be/E0sRFEOGDmc
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 14 2013, 08:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Each to their own plastic.

But I think if you spent some time looking into the assets that SUDA has, its achievements, and its strategy, you may form a different conclusion.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 14 2013, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark, I tried to send you a PM but it says your PM is disabled. Not sure if you were aware of this (i didnt know sharescene had this feature!!)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 14 2013, 07:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

QUOTE
I have done my thing for today to make it a day to remember, a good deed and nope not this stuff.


Care to share what that good deed was?

btw, cant recall if you have mentioned this over the last month or two since your posting on here again, re QE and the fed holding these MBS and UST on their balance sheet, are you expecting them to just hold to maturity? Yeah they may have mark to market losses should treasuries sell off etc, but at the end of the day does it really matter for the fed? Ultimately they will get the principal back at maturity wont they.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 13 2013, 06:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi nifty
Welcome on board
Hopefully you have timed your purchase well.
It certainly looks like a very different company from even 12 months ago. Alot going on and some good opportunities to bring some decent deals to benefit shareholders.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 13 2013, 12:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Agreed

A heck of a lot of news for people to digest and to try and ascertain what the real implications are.

Its a shame to see us retrace from 4.7c to 4.1c but hopefully its just a healthy pause as part of a strong day.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 13 2013, 08:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Well $5.6m raised from instos above the 30 day VWAP

Great result and really does bulletproof the company!

I expect the next announcement will be the cancellation of the now redundant Bergen agreement and this will come out once the market absorbs the significance of what has been announced this week.

Well done to the team. Hopefully now the market starts valuing the business that I believe is at more appropriate levels for its IP, operating business, milestones to date, and also its prospects
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 12 2013, 04:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Well some realy interesting news today from the company. They have managed to restructure the terms of their rights to Artimist and now have 80% of the worldwide rights for all regions and all uses of Artimist in treating malaria.

Protopharma get 20% and the structure is now clean.

We have 80% of a bigger pie compared to the previous structure which was ambiguous regarding the royalties payable to Protopharma.

Coupled with the announcement yesterday of engaging Torreya partners to help us license to Big pharma, the chairmans address provides a great summary of where things are at.

Westcoast surgical another $220k NPAT for the month of October.

Now all that remains are the details of the capital raising which will be announced tomorrow. What for? To whom? How much? What price? and what it means for the Bergen deal are the key questions.

Great moves by the company of late, and at a $25m market cap is still well and truly under the radar of the biotech investor IMO
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 12 2013, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

I would very much doubt it.

They would need to announce what is going on with the company first!!

And you typically have an AGM to confirm the accounts/annual report. They havent produced any for a couple of years
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Nov 11 2013, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Well this mornings announcement regarding the agreement with Torreya sounds like a good move. These guys sound impressive and certainly have the experience and expertise to obtain great deals for SUDA.
Its good to see the company be explicit that SUD:01 is the first ex-Novadel product to be licensed/sold.

But interestingly that isnt all! We have gone into halt with 2 announcements to be released - one on a material transaction and the other a capital raising.

Why they cant be part of the one announcement beats me. I have a theory but its pie in the sky stuff so no point sharing it.

My guess is that it has something to do with Artimist and the malaria assets. We shall see.

Given the AGM is tomorrow my money is on us coming out of halt tomorrow morning.

Good luck
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 28 2013, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Really good couple of announcements today I thought.

The progress they are making with Artimist is terrific. They are really doing everything they can to produce maximum value for this wonderful asset.

And the company presentation is as good as I would have expected it. We have 2+ products to be licensed in the next 12 months, and each of these involve IMO upfront payments (not total licensing deal value) that are at or more than our current market cap!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 25 2013, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

And the other interesting thing is his title... Director.

So maybe he has joined the board? If so, it would be another encouraging development as no offence to the others but someone with seemingly more commercial acumen joining the board and being involved in key decisions I think is very much required.

And further to this - it could be a further sign of the increased progress and maturity of the company on its path towards a more sales and profitability and ultimately re-listing of its shares.

enough from me, as its all speculation.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 25 2013, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Great find pepee

Also just came across this

http://au.linkedin.com/pub/james-dunne/13/248/2a1

James Dunne
Business Development Director at Solagran
Melbourne Area, Australia Pharmaceuticals

Looks like we have just hired a BDM (I cannot recall seeing his name before)!

If he is new its a very encouraging sign!!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 23 2013, 07:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Thanks Mark
Of course the CPI and deflators for all components of GDP measure different things, ie GDP deflators will cover more components then CPI bc of the fact they are used to measure real GDP, and not JUST consumer prices.
But yes both are measure of inflation and it really surprised me that housing isn't included in US CPI. Will have to see if I can find out why...
As for the differences in US GDP deflators and CPI over the last 5 years, were there any other main factors besides energy costs?
I'm very interested in this thing you are working on and appreciate in advance what you plan to share with us here.
Cheers
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 23 2013, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

Your recent comments about housing being excluded from the US CPI is something I have found very interesting. And yes of course you are correct cf the Aussie CPI.

QUOTE
The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is conceptually designed to provide a general measure of price inflation for all Australian households. In practice, the index is constrained to only measure the changes in prices faced by private households living in the six State and two Territory capital cities.

The simplest way of thinking about the CPI is to imagine a basket of goods and services comprising items bought by Australian households. Now imagine the basket is purchased each quarter. As prices change from one quarter to the next, so too will the total price of the basket. The CPI is simply a measure of the changes in the price of this fixed basket as the prices of items in it change.

The total basket is divided into 11 major groups, each representing a specific set of commodities:
 Food and non-alcoholic beverages
 Alcohol and tobacco
 Clothing and footwear
 Housing
 Furnishings, household equipment and services
 Health
 Transport
 Communication
 Recreation and culture
 Education
 Insurance and financial services



But housing is still being used as part of the deflator for GDP in the US. So in this case I don’t think it can be argued that its overstating US GDP.

Check out this link which shows the nominal series values for PCE. My understanding is that these nominal values are used in the implicit price deflator calculation

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID...ri=1&903=73

Go to table 2.5.4 – Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures by Function.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 23 2013, 07:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Fair enough Optionsman

Although I would point out that the announcement of the successful tender was only made on August 15, so lets say they started sales as part of this new agreement 2 weeks prior for example (ie start of August), therefore you can also argue that the 720k net profit was only for 2 months worth of this new agreement being in place.

I think that would offset the seasonality as mentioned by yourself and in the announcement.

But yes further clarification would be welcome
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 22 2013, 02:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Yeah mate. Costs are down, revenues are up.

All we need is more awareness of our little company to get that SP higher. It looks like recent events point towards this being a focus from SC and the team.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 22 2013, 12:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

A terrific initiative by the company to produce a newsletter and commit to releasing one each quarter.

Todays one certainly reads very well and highlights that the company has many strings in its bow!!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 21 2013, 01:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

A really good announcement on friday about their operating business making a $730k profit for the quarter.

Simple maths:

$720k x 4 = $2.8m in NPAT

20m market cap / 2.8m NPAT = 7.14

SUDA are trading on a p/e of 7 times.

And of course that doesnt factor in Artimist or any of the other products in its arsenal.

If Westcost surgical is making over $2.5m a year, then I cant see we will need the Bergen financing for much longer.

This company is well and truly flying under the radar imo
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 16 2013, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi mark
Thanks again for your insights. They really are appreciated. Truly appreciated.
Can you just clarify something for me from your bubble mania attachment.You talk about the fed holding roughly half of the corporate bonds on issue. Can you go into more detail here as I wasn't aware of this. Are you referring to bank assets being held on repo with the fed? QE3 has targeted treasuries and Agency paper. They haven't stepped into the credit markets as such as far as I can recall (I am not disputing the fact that buying UST lowers the reference rate so that if for example spreads didn't change then at very least outright corporate borrowing costs will be lower).
I must have missed something about the fed stepping into credit markets directly.
Appreciate your thoughts and clarifications.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 16 2013, 01:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

In reference to #8 from Mark below


QUOTE
It's back with a vengeance: Private debt

Published: Saturday, 12 Oct 2013 | 9:00 AM ET

As Washington is struggling with debt and all its political ramifications, American companies and consumers are embracing it, running up record amounts in 2013.
Whether it's corporate loans, all quality levels of bonds or simple consumer credit, the debt party is back on in the U.S., whether it's in the boardroom or the living room.
Amid the financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. went into what economists call a "debt deleveraging cycle"—akin to a credit hangover, where the party has ended and everyone there decides to quit drinking cold turkey.
Somebody has clearly turned the lights back on, though, and corporate and individual buying is soaring.
Consumer credit, for instance, surged past the $3 trillion mark in the second quarter of 2013 and continues on an upward trajectory, according to the most recent numbers from the Federal Reserve.
At $3.04 trillion, the total is up 22 percent over the past three years. Student loans are up a whopping 61 percent.
Total household debt, according to the Fed's flow of funds report, is at $13 trillion, nearly back to its pre-crisis level in 2007 and a shade below government debt of $15 trillion.
"We have not solved (anything) when it comes to the deleveraging myth," said Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies. "We have learned nothing."

While the specter of another debt crisis might seem scary, some economists tout it as a healthy sign of a recovery. "In a moment of crisis, that's going to come back to haunt you," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital. "As long as you can support that debt through growth, it's really not a major concern."
That's a big "if," and the prospects of rising interest rates could force borrowers back into their foxholes.
But with the U.S. economy growing at a steady, if unspectacular, 2.5 percent rate, economists are mostly dismissive about another debt crisis hitting.
Gluskin Sheff's noted bear, David Rosenberg, said the rebirth of leverage is actually a reason for optimism. A July analysis Rosenberg released on the topic marked a sharp change in tone for someone who only a few years ago saw an economy not in recession but rather depression.
"The building blocks for the consumer to grab the torch are being put together with each and every passing data point as of late," he said. "Don't fight it. Embrace it."

Companies have followed that advice.
On the corporate side, debt issuance has surged as well, thanks to some high-profile deals in which companies have been able to go to market and easily raise funds.
Through September, high-yield—or junk—bond issuance came in at $378.2 billion, a new record and a 27 percent surge for the same period in 2012, according to Dealogic.
Sprint notched a record last month, with a $6.5 billion high-yield bond issuance that was embraced by investors.
Top-quality, or investment-grade, debt has roared as well.

Though borrowing slowed in the third quarter as interest rates rose, September marked the sector's best month ever. Total investment-grade volume hit $148.1 billion—the highest month ever—thanks to Verizon's blockbuster $49 billion issuance on Sept. 11, marking the biggest single deal ever.
The debt deluge doesn't end there, either, with lots of loans being taken out as well by companies.
U.S. loan volume alone totaled $1.53 trillion through the first three quarters, a gaudy 25 percent higher than the same period in 2012.

Globally, syndicated marketed loans—put together by multiple parties for a single borrower—hit $2.93 trillion in the first three quarters, a 15 percent annualized gain, with average deal size of $458 million the highest since 2007, Dealogic reported.
High-risk leveraged loans hit a global volume of $1.23 trillion, passing the trillion barrier for the first time since 2007.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 15 2013, 03:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

I have been flicking through the CBO updated budget forecasts that were released in September and I was curious about their reference to "debt directly held by the public"

Upon some investigation, I came across this article from a couple of weeks ago. I gotta say - I had no idea that the US government takes money from its social security trust fund!!!
So thinking out loud, doing this means they dont need to supply more bonds onto the market, which all things being equal keeps the prices up and yields down (an extra $440bn of demand for UST would have been required since 2009 based on the article below).

Mark, the more I read, the more I agree with you. tick tock tick tock


http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terenc...-held-public-90

QUOTE
Treasury: Under Obama, U.S Gov't Debt Held by Public Up 90%
October 2, 2013 - 12:06 PM
By Terence P. Jeffrey

(CNSNews.com) - The U.S. Treasury released its last Daily Treasury Statement for fiscal 2013 yesterday afternoon, revealing that during the presidency of Barack Obama the U.S. government debt held by the public has increased 90 percent.

At the close of business on Jan. 20, 2009, the day Obama was inaugurated, the U.S. government debt held by the public was $6,307,311,000,000, according to the Daily Treasury Statement for that day.

At the close of business on Sept. 30, 2013—the last day of fiscal 2013—the Daily Treasury Statement said the U.S. government debt held by the public was $11,976,279,000,000.

The $11,976,279,000,000 in U.S. government debt held by the public on Sept. 30, 2013 was $5,668,968,000,000 more than the $6,307,311,000,000 in debt held by the public on Obama’s first inauguration day.

That is an increase of 89.879 percent—or approximately 90 percent.

The U.S. Treasury divides the U.S. government's debt into two general categories: debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt. Debt held by the public consists primarily of U.S. Treasury securities—including bills, notes and bonds—that the Treasury sells on the open market to everybody from individual families and investors to government entities in the People’s Republic of China.

Intragovernmental debt is money the Treasury has borrowed from the Social Security Trust Fund and other government sources to pay for current government expenses.

Under Obama, intragovernmental debt has increased only about 10 percent, starting at $4,319,566,000,000 on Jan. 20, 2009 and increasing to $4,761,904,000,000 by the close of business on Sept. 30, 2013.

During Obama’s presidency, intragovernmental debt has declined as a percentage of the overall debt and debt held by the public has increased as a percentage of the overall debt. This happened as surpluses in Social Security taxes (over Social Security benefits paid) have dwindled and the Treasury has been forced to borrow proportionately more money from the public rather than from Social Security to pay the government's current expenses.

On Jan. 20, 2009, when Obama was inaugurated, 40.6 percent of the federal government's total debt was intragovernmental debt and 59.4 percent was debt held by the public. On Sept. 30, 2013, 28.4 percent of the debt was intragovernmental and 71.6 percent was debt held by the public.
[color="#FF0000"][/color]
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 14 2013, 04:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

In line with Mark's comments...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-11/l...r-country-broke


Laurence Kotlikoff: "The US Fiscal Gap Is $200 Trillion... Our Country Is broke"
09/11/2013


While it is easy and often enjoyable to distract oneself with daily drudgery such as who will bomb whom (if not so enjoyable for those on the receiving end of said bombs), the key word in the sentence is just one: "distract" and as Kyle Bass pointed out correctly, the best, and most "economy-boosting" of all distractions ends up with the proverbial red button being pushed. Sadly, with an economy which Boston University's Larry Kotlikoff defines as "arguably in worst fiscal shape than any other developed country", there is much to be distrated by and is why we correctly predicted in July that the Syrian false flag event is only weeks or months away (turned out to be precisely one month). So for those who have no desire to prove the axiom that ignorance is bliss, or to have their heads stuck in the sand, here is a must read interview between Goldman's Hugo Scott-Gall and the iconoclast economist who, in a vast minority, calls it like it is.

The highlights:

I estimate the US fiscal gap at US$200 tn, 17 times the reported US$12 tn in official debt in the hands of the public. And this incorporates this year’s tax increases and spending sequestration. What would it take to come up with US$200 tn in present value? The answer is tax hikes or spending cuts, or a combination of the two, amounting to 10 percent of GDP, starting immediately and continuing indefinitely. To do so via spending cuts, alone, would require an immediate and permanent 36% cut in all non-interest spending. To do so via tax hikes, alone, would need an immediate and permanent 55% increase in all federal taxes. Hence, a description of the fiscal adjustments made over the last year could be “too little too late.” In terms of generational accounting, were we to leave our kids and future descendants to cover the entire fiscal gap, they’d face tax rates over their lifetimes around twice as high as those we face.
The US is arguably in worst fiscal shape than any other developed country. But Greece, the UK, and Japan are close runner ups. As mentioned, our fiscal gap is 10% of the present value of our future GDP. In Germany it’s around 5%, while Canada, Australia and New Zealand are close to zero. Even Italy's long-term fiscal gap is just half of the US’s, yet Italian government bonds sell at a much lower price than US government bonds simply because people don't understand the pension reforms that Italy has rolled out or that Italy has much better control of its healthcare spending.
Our country is broke. It’s not broke in 50 years or 30 years or 10 years. It’s broke today. Six decades of take as you go has led us to a precipice. That’s why almost the entire economics profession is talking as one at www.theinformact.org. Economists from all political persuasions are collectively sending our government a warning about what is, effectively, a nuclear economic bomb. I’ve been around economics for a long time. I’ve never seen such a strong response to a proposed Congressional bill. This is the profession sending a statement to the President and Congress that’s not unlike the warning physicists sent via Einstein to Roosevelt about the bomb.
And with that, here is the full interview:

Laurence J. Kotlikoff is a William Fairfield Warren Professor at Boston University, a Professor of Economics at Boston University, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and President of Economic Security Planning, Inc., a company specializing in financial planning software.

Hugo Scott-Gall: You argue that the official debts that countries report are economically meaningless numbers. Please explain this?

Larry Kotlikoff: Every dollar the government takes in or pays out can be labelled in economically arbitrary ways. For example, the government can call our social security contributions “taxes” or “official borrowing.” And it can call our social security benefits “transfer payments” or “return of principal or principal plus interest.” There is nothing in the math of economic theory that pins down the government’s word choice and each labelling convention will produce a different reported time path of debt, deficits, taxes, and spending. At their heart, these measures are linguistic and convey nothing about a country’s underlying fiscal policy – only about what the government decides to put on and keep off the books.

Uncle Sam is very powerful, but he has only one set of vocal cords. We are all free to label past, present, and projected future government receipts and outlays any way we want, as long as our labelling convention is internally consistent (e.g., if we label government receipts as borrowing, we need to label other outlays as debt service). Consequently, we can produce any past, current, and projected future measure of the government’s debt and other fiscal quantities. With the right past labelling, we can say the current debt to GDP ratio is miles higher than Rogoff-Reinhart’s critical 90 percent. Or, we can argue that the debt to GDP ratio is hugely negative. The Economics labelling problem tells us that what we measure as the size of standard fiscal variables is language- or frame of reference-dependent. This is fundamentally no different from physics. The measurement of time and distance is not uniquely pinned down by the math. What time you report and how you measure the size of physical objects depends on one’s frame of reference (direction and rate of speed through space) or language, if you will.

Here’s another way to see my point. My mother gets checks from the US Treasury all the time. They all look the same except for their amounts. Some are for social security and some are for holding Treasury bonds. But Uncle Sam is discounting the amounts coming on the Treasuries and including that in his official debt measure, while ignoring the amounts coming for social security benefits. Using economically meaningless fiscal indicators to guide fiscal policy is like driving in NY with a map of LA. If you aren’t careful, you’ll drive into the East River.

Hugo Scott-Gall: If conventional fiscal measures are, as you say, content free, what should we measure?

Larry Kotlikoff: Every dynamic mathematical model of the economy that economists write down (and thousands are being constructed each year) includes what’s called the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. This constraint simply requires that the present value of government outlays, no matter how labelled, equals the present value of government receipts, no matter how labelled. In this over-time government balance sheet, the outlays represent the liabilities and the receipts represent the assets. If the value in the present of the liabilities exceeds the value in the present of the receipts, the government’s balance sheet isn’t balanced, with the difference between the liabilities and assets call the fiscal gap. The fiscal gap doesn’t suffer from an economics labelling problem for a simple reason - it puts everything on the books. The fiscal gap is the true measure of a government’s debt. And once one determines its size, one can assess the impact on our children of paying it off if it’s all dumped into their laps. This is part of a companion analysis, called Generational Accounting, which I initiated in the late 80s together with my co-author, UC Berkeley economist Alan Auerbach and my then student, Jagaadesh Gokhale (now at the Cato Institute).

Hugo Scott-Gall: How big is the US fiscal gap and what does US generational accounting show?

Larry Kotlikoff: The CBO will release its 2013 long-term fiscal projection, called the Alternative Fiscal Forecast (an alternative to the Extended Budget Forecast produced for Congress) this Fall. But I estimate the US fiscal gap at US$200 tn, 17 times the reported US$12 tn in official debt in the hands of the public. And this incorporates this year’s tax increases and spending sequestration. What would it take to come up with US$200 tn in present value? The answer is tax hikes or spending cuts, or a combination of the two, amounting to 10 percent of GDP, starting immediately and continuing indefinitely. To do so via spending cuts, alone, would require an immediate and permanent 36% cut in all non-interest spending. To do so via tax hikes, alone, would need an immediate and permanent 55% increase in all federal taxes. Hence, a description of the fiscal adjustments made over the last year could be “too little too late.” In terms of generational accounting, were we to leave our kids and future descendants to cover the entire fiscal gap, they’d face tax rates over their lifetimes around twice as high as those we face.

Hugo Scott-Gall: How do we get better fiscal book keeping?

Larry Kotlikoff: At my encouragement and that of The Can Kicks Back – a non-profit in DC run by twenty-somethings fighting for generational equity, Senators Kaine and Coons – two Democrats – and Senators Thune and Portman – two Republicans – have just co-introduced THE INFORM ACT. The Bill, which I largely drafted in consultation with Alan Auerbach, will require three agencies in the US government (the CBO, the OMB and the GAO) to do fiscal gap analysis as well as generational accounting on an ongoing basis. To date, 12 Nobel Laureates in economics, over 500 of the nation’s other leading economists, George Shultz, the Former Secretary of the Treasury, State and Labor and the OMB Director, and other prominent government officials, and thousands of non-economists have endorsed the bill at www.theinformact.org. I’m hoping everyone in the country will go to the site, endorse the bill, and spread the word.

Hugo Scott-Gall: How do you recommend solving this issue?

Larry Kotlikoff: Measuring our fiscal gap and disclosing its implications for ourselves and our children is just step one in addressing our fiscal issues. What’s really needed is the adoption of radical, but generationally fair reforms to our tax, social security, and healthcare system. Maintaining the status quo is not an option. When a patient needs heart surgery, radical surgery is often the safe option. America needs radical policy surgery. I lay out postcard length reforms of out tax, social security, healthcare, and banking systems at www.thepurpleplans.org. Many of these plans have been endorsed by the economics’ profession’s top economists.

Let me lay out just one of these plans - the Purple Health Plan. The costs of Medicare, Medicaid, the new health exchanges, and employer-paid healthcare (here the costs entail loss of revenue because premiums are exempt from taxes) constitute 60% of the fiscal gap. The Purple Health Plan would eliminate these four systems and start with a clean slate. Under the plan, each US citizen gets a voucher each year, the size of which is determined by his pre-existing medical condition. The voucher is used to purchase, in full, the Basic Health Plan from an insurance provider. The Basic Health Plan’s coverages are established by a panel of doctors subject to the constraint that the costs of all the vouchers never exceeds 10% of GDP. Those who could afford it would be free to buy supplemental policies. No insurer could turn anyone away, but since each voucher is individually rated, insurers would have no incentive to cheery pick. This simple reform, in essence, the healthcare system of Germany, Israel, Holland, Switzerland, and Japan, retains private provision, turns the Basic Health Plan into a commodity with insurance providers competing to attract and retain participants. A very large share – roughly 60% – of America’s fiscal gap can be eliminated via this reform alone. Adopting the other purple plans would eliminate the rest of the fiscal gap without visiting untoward hardship on anyone.

Hugo Scott-Gall: Will society be able to hold current demographic fiscal systems together where young people are heavily taxed...

Larry Kotlikoff: Our country is broke. It’s not broke in 50 years or 30 years or 10 years. It’s broke today. Six decades of take as you go has led us to a precipice. That’s why almost the entire economics profession is talking as one at www.theinformact.org. Economists from all political persuasions are collectively sending our government a warning about what is, effectively, a nuclear economic bomb. I’ve been around economics for a long time. I’ve never seen such a strong response to a proposed Congressional bill. This is the profession sending a statement to the President and Congress that’s not unlike the warning physicists sent via Einstein to Roosevelt about the bomb.

Hugo Scott-Gall: What does all of this mean for overall consumption and savings in the US?

Larry Kotlikoff: Our huge off-the-books fiscal problems were created as a result of the take-as-you-go policies of the post war periods that passed on benefits to older people at the expense of younger people. This systematic intergenerational redistribution produced a massive increase in the absolute and relative consumption of the elderly and a massive decline in our net national saving rate, from 15% in 1950 to 1% now. The ratio of the consumption of a 70-year-old compared to a 35-year-old is about 2.5 times larger today than it was back in 1950. And the reason they’re consuming so much more is that they get the entire set of benefits, from healthcare and social security to tax cuts. National saving finances most domestic investment, so as we’re saving next to nothing means we’re also investing next to nothing. Last year’s net domestic investment rate was 5%, only a third of the 1950 level. And less domestic investment means slower real wage growth, as workers have less capital with which to operate. Finally, since we Americans aren’t saving, we can’t invest in our country. So $4 out of every $5 of investment in the US is now by foreigners. In the late 1970s, Alan Auerbach and I pioneered the development of large-scale computable general equilibrium life-cycle models that we could simulate on a computer. In this and subsequent research, we were able to simulate the impact of take-as-you-go fiscal policy. What we see from these increasingly sophisticated computer models matches exactly what you see in the country, less saving, less investment, less growth, and stagnant wages. While generational policy is not the sole driver of post-war secular economic trends, it’s likely the biggest.

Hugo Scott-Gall: How do other countries compare to the US when you look at their fiscal gaps?

Larry Kotlikoff: The US is arguably in worst fiscal shape than any other developed country. But Greece, the UK, and Japan are close runner ups. As mentioned, our fiscal gap is 10% of the present value of our future GDP. In Germany it’s around 5%, while Canada, Australia and New Zealand are close to zero. Even Italy's long-term fiscal gap is just half of the US’s, yet Italian government bonds sell at a much lower price than US government bonds simply because people don't understand the pension reforms that Italy has rolled out or that Italy has much better control of its healthcare spending.

The case of Norway is also very interesting. I conducted generational accounting with a Norwegian economist named Erling Steigum back in the mid-90s, which proved that while Norway was reporting a huge surplus because of how it was labelling its transactions, in reality the country was spending at far too high a rate. To its credit, the government went ahead and continued carrying out this analysis on a regular basis, and as a result, created a generational trust fund, where some of the North Sea oil revenue is set aside for future generations. This has left them in a much better position today. Chile, another resource-dominated economy, has also got a similar trust fund in effect. The Canadians have also been very careful about their long-term liabilities. So, some countries are acting more responsibly.

Hugo Scott-Gall: Have you considered the impact of fewer jobs, driven by rising automation, in your analysis?

Larry Kotlikoff: Automation and the structural loss of jobs is a very important issue. In fact, Jeff Sachs and I have together written about the implications of smart machines, machines that today can substitute almost perfectly, if not more than perfectly for people, and constitute, effectively, competing robots. We’re not far from the day when machines will drive cars too. While that sounds great, the other side of the coin is that younger people are earning less and saving less, and so, they bring much less wealth into old age than previous generations did. Owing to this vicious cycle, these youngsters, who as a group are not the prime owners of capital, aren't going to reap the benefits from this new technology. The beneficiaries are instead going to be a small number of people who are either the inventors, or older people who have the capital to help get the invented technology in place. So, we’re going to see wealth redistributed further, from young workers to older people, with yet direr implications for national saving, domestic investment and growth. Indeed, technological change can, through these general equilibrium feedback effects, end up making all of society worse off in the long run, unless one is careful to redistribute to the young losers from the old winners.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 2 2013, 02:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Thanks Mark. You have identified that the market is overvalued when compared to price according to your successful valuation approach. In previous posts did you provide any insight into how you determine value, other than mentioning Buffett, Lynch etc? If so, I may have missed this and would appreciate you pointing me in the right direction. If not, are you referring to traditional value based investing approaches by Buffett, Graham and Lynch?
Thanks

This is a bit of a sticking point for me… the 8 points you mention would scare the $h!t out of most equity investors and make then run for the hills. And as I say these are known knowns. All of what you mention is in the public domain and as you are say they are facts.

But if market participants don’t elect to act on these facts, then what does it matter? The sharemarket cant go down unless a) people sell and/or b) people stop buying.
As long as the tap is turned on I suspect the market will continue to ignore what is scary and over the horizon and keep on pushing us higher. Maybe not at the same speed over the last 12 months but as we all know QE has provided artificial demand for asset prices and has no impact on boosting GDP and while the tap is turned on (tapering is still keeping the tap on) then doesn’t that put a floor under equity prices and other risky assets no matter what the outlook?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 2 2013, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

I thought people will find this video useful in the context of recent discussions

http://www.economicprinciples.org/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 2 2013, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

Thanks for your comments below

In your second PDF you put forward 8 aspects of the current US situation that could cause a correction in equity markets.

There is no doubt that these are factors that warrant attention and I appreciate you sharing these.

I have been thinking a lot about your posts and have two questions that I just cannot answer. I would be interested in your thoughts on these.

The US are the best at kicking the can. Given the political cycle and vested interests I just cannot see any political will to address some of these imbalances (ie unfunded liabilities, getting the budget into surplus etc etc). The 8 points you mention are known knowns, so people are aware of these…. But the market still goes higher!!!
So what do you think will be the tipping point to cause at least a correction in risk assets???

Speaking of unfunded liabilities, addressing these (eg the alternate assumption of 300%+ Debt/GDP in the US is projected to be reached by 2050 by the BIS) is a medium/longer term focus (notwithstanding that its already too late). I personally see this projection as the biggest area of concern among the 8 you mention and therefore it could have the biggest impact on markets.
This looks like it is years away from even being mentioned by policy makers let alone putting in a credible plan, so given your 0% equity holdings is it not possible to argue that you are many years too early in reducing your equity exposure and that markets will not start pricing in this significant issue for a for long time?

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Oct 1 2013, 07:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Mark

Welcome back and its great to hear from you.

If I have the time I may try and do some sensitivity analysis on what a back up in bond yields will mean for company borrowing costs (assuming credit spreads remain the same/higher). I suspect in Oz where corporate balance sheet repair has taken place and we have REIT gearing levels around 25-30% and industrials (eg Woolworths/Wesfarmers/Telstra) also at really low levels, that this leaves Aussie corporates in a far better position to weather the storm. Of course they aren’t immune by any stretch..

I know the outright borrowing costs are low (especially when they tap the US markets – both the reference rate UST as well as spreads), but I am very curious to see what adding a couple of % to borrowing costs will do to profitability.

Will it be enough to significantly bring down earnings and thus the implications for equity valuations…

Note I am leaving banks alone.. they are a whole other kettle of fish.

In your ELE or nuclear scenario I am curious as to your thoughts on bond markets. If the nuclear is caused by a sell-off in bond markets to price in higher real rates, how do bonds, as their role as a diversifier and source of safety act in such a scenario?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 18 2013, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Ray

If you translate the link that pepee posted on tuesday night it talks about some agreements and products that Solagran launched in conjunction with Kalina. Kalina are owned by Unilever and distribute products in Russia.

Unilever are a massive company (worth around $100bn) and this deal can only be a good thing for Solagran!

Hi pepee

Some of your translations may be a little off. "ingapure" is "sinagpore" and "in etname" is "Vietnam"
No sure whether these new markets are through Artlife or through Nuvanta.

Either way, it does show the company is moving forwards
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 17 2013, 04:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Not really pepee. I just pasted the sections into google translate. Its good enough to get a gist of the article.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 17 2013, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Exactly right pepee

Imagine if we were listed and we were able to announce at the start of the year "Solagran announces agreement with majority owned Unilever subsidiary for the launch of two products"

and then in the last couple of weeks announce "Solagran expands Unilever relationship with launch of 3 additional products"

What an endorsement for Solagran and bioeffectives!!

When you read that article and all the progress that has been made this year (yes most of it is OTC stuff) it validates my previous comments about the company taking steps forward.

  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 13 2013, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Gday bam_bamm

Yep, its facebook. They are posting a couple of times a week and seem to be meeting with Vagif on a regular basis too!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 13 2013, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Interesting that both SLA and Artilfe are presenting!
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Sep 12 2013, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Agreed mate
IMO if we were going bust we sold have done so by now.
So we have the company still manufacturing product, Vagif going over to Malaysia, and the pine needle products guys ramping up their social media profile along with meetings with Vagif.
It sounds to me like things are going along "ok"
I remain hopeful that with all the cost cutting efforts and the implementation of the Artlife deal that we may relist at some stage with the company actually profitable. Doesn't seem too outrageous to me.
But I have NFI really as its all IMO only smile.gif
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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 2 2013, 07:18 PM


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Good interview, but it beats me why they kept on referring to the product as bioeffective A when it is marketed in Malaysia as Nuvapine A.
But hey, it's better than no publicity at all!

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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 8 2013, 08:20 AM


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Another good interview by SC. Seems like he is building a database of info for prospective investors
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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 5 2013, 11:14 AM


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Well the "by the way re Novadel" has just been covered in the form of another BRR.

What a great interview!!

It really does highlight the value of the assets we now have and SUDA is well and truly a serious biotech organisation now.

Its a pretty simple equation and story for the market to understand, so I put the current super low market purely down to a lack of awareness.
Im sure it will change one day, and hopefully it will start one day soon!!
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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 2 2013, 10:47 AM


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Steve Carter just gave a short 4-5 min interview on BRR about Artimist. Worth a listen by anyone interested!
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 31 2013, 08:41 AM


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Hi Wasa

That is a very good question for which I have one answer.

People dont know about the SUDA story and Artimist.

A quick look shows that there has been NO MEDIA. NONE. NOT ONE SINGLE ARTICLE on the publication of the Phase 3 trial results.

I find this unbelievable, but it is reality (which will hopefully change over the coming days/weeks)

People are not going to be able to form an opinion about SUDA if they dont know about it. So its up to the company now to really get out there and promote the story.

As we know, the market is very inefficient at the micro cap end of town which certainly throws up opportunities for the patient and the brave.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 30 2013, 04:58 PM


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Yeah mate. Hopefully there will be a bit of press and publicity following confirmation of the trial results seen in todays announcement!
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 30 2013, 10:30 AM


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Final report released this morning and is EXCELLENT NEWS!

What an unbelievable product and set of results.

With a market cap so low this has to be one of the most promising companies on the ASX.

The world will have no choice but to take notice of SUDA now.

Market cap of $20m with Artimist trade sale alone being valued at $100m-$150m, and with a successfully completed Phase 3 trial, you would have to conclude its considerably de-risked now!!
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 23 2013, 12:06 PM


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Announcement out and it reads very well.

Steve and Co are really building a significant business!

Well done to all, and this announcement is the entree, with he main being the Artimist final report due out very soon
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 22 2013, 01:45 PM


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Novadel shareholders voted for the deal on friday night.

SUDA shareholders approved the deals at the recent GM.

It cleared all US regulatory approvals prior to the Novadel shareholder vote

So all good to go.

We have the cash in teh bank, so I imagine its just a case of finalising the legal documentation and executing the documentation.

So all good!!!
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 22 2013, 09:48 AM


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The Novadel shareholders approved the deal with SUDA friday night so step one of the transformation of SUDA has been complete.

This is a sleeping giant IMO with the Artimist final report still to come out, and in the process transforming SUDA from a one prospective product company to a serious biotech specialising in sublingual drug delivery with multiple products in various stages of development.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 22 2013, 08:47 AM


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Thanks Sparkplug

I couldnt seem to get an English translation of the actual presentation, but the speaker notes down the bottom seems to imply (on slide 6) that the company is producing 300kg of polyprenols a month?!

Somehow I doubt that.

Either way, this presentation was made in April and at least it implies that its all systems go.

As I have said before, I would rather the company not raise equity at this point in time but stay suspended for a little while longer if profitability is close (costs surely have been cut to the absolute minimum).
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 12 2013, 01:45 PM


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The final report for the Artimist Phase III trial is due to land in the next week.

Hopefully the world will start paying attention to SUDA, which at $20m market cap is significantly undervalued IMO.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 22 2013, 05:54 PM


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Wow
I printed off and read all 68 pages of the judgement and details of the case.
It has certainly brought up some old wounds that I haven't thought about in the last couple of years.What a disastrous set of events and actions
Wow
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 21 2013, 10:01 PM


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Lol
Not much of an update mind you!
I assume that the lease expired on st kilda road so to save cash they have changed the address to what I assume is Vagif's clinic.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 21 2013, 04:34 PM


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Yep good news.

Case dismissed!

https://www.comcourts.gov.au/file/Federal/P...23/2010/actions

Judgement for those that want to have a read is here:

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/FCA/2013/620.html
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 7 2013, 03:21 PM


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huh?

Yes I have had a couple of beers over lunch but if I read this correctly then Vagif's wife has passed away so Vagif has given up being Executive Chairman of SLA and handed it to his wife's brother?
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 30 2013, 12:04 PM


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Yeah mate what an unbelievable announcement!

Tee market hasnt caught on yet but they will.
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 11 2013, 02:47 PM


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Can't say that this is surprising news at all.
Clearly the ASI hasn't given Solagran the funds for the new plant, and clearly the company doesn't have the money.
It I were Vagif and co, I wouldn't waste my time trying to raise whatever amount is needed to relist while at the same time diluting shareholders quite significantly.
I would rather them focus on becoming cash flow positive and relisting after they can demonstrate some consistent profitability.
With costs no doubt at a bare minimum now and with artlife hopefully kicking into gear, this may not be such a silly notion.
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 8 2013, 02:02 PM


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Agree

I think the terms are very good for SUDA and very good for Novadel shareholders.

$400k, 50m shares, and 10m 5c options seems pretty good to me! Really keeps the SOI numbers from balooning out.

Hopefully it can all be finalised soon.

Shame the SP cant seem to move out of this low 3c level. Hopefully the selling is nearly exhausted.
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 27 2013, 01:09 PM


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Yeah mate agreed. Its all moving forward and not long to go before the world hears about how good Artimist really is!
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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 28 2013, 10:19 AM


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Happy anniversary everyone sad.gif
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Livas1
Posted on: Feb 22 2013, 08:10 AM


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Interesting development sparkplug

Where did they get the money to do the R&D, production, packaging and presumed marketing??...
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Livas1
Posted on: Jan 8 2013, 01:52 PM


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I think its worth pointing out that the company has no intention of actually taking the product to market themselves. They are looking to sell the product to one of the large pharmaceutical companies.

Whether its SUDA or Novartis for example, the product will need to be distributed by organisations like the WHO.



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Livas1
Posted on: Jan 7 2013, 03:26 PM


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Gday Dr D

A couple of points:

Artimist is a product that is targetting severe malaria (there are two types, severe or uncomplicated) in children.

The rates are very high, and a study that recently came out showed that the world has significantly underestimated the number of malaria related deaths.

You mention costs.

Artimist has many advantages over IVQ (which will hopefully be confirmed in the upcoming Phase 3 trial results), including the fact that the product can be stored for up to 2 years (ie no loss of product) and most importantly it can be administered by non-medically trained personell. This will mean huge savings for the medical costs of the countries that ultimately use Artimist, as it means that the child does not need to be transported to a hospital for treatment, which is both expensive and time consuming, but it means that the child can receive treatment in the local village/community much earlier.

In case you may not be aware, Artimist is a sublingual spray (delivered under the toungue) which not only has higher absorption rates but it means it can be administered to children who may be sick/vomitting/diarhhoea etc which is a real problem for the other treatments like IV Quinine.

Anyway, a good move today which will likely result in a speeding ticket.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jan 7 2013, 01:21 PM


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Its been a long time coming and hopefully its worth the wait!
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Livas1
Posted on: Jan 7 2013, 12:19 PM


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A bit of interest in the stock again today.

With a $25m market cap and the Phase 3 results out any day now IMO this could still have much further to run.

My working assumption is that the results will be positive and show that Artimist is superior to IV Quinine (which is the current standard of treatment) for treating severe malaria in children.

If thats the case, then $25m doesnt IMO accurately reflect this and IMO it should be worth at least $100m.

Anyway, time will tell and not long to go. It could in theory go into TH at any moment.
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Livas1
Posted on: Dec 20 2012, 10:47 AM


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Agreed mate.

Sounds like a very complementary platform technology with multiple products in various stages of commercialisation.

The fact that the company is basically insolvent means that SUDA should be able to complete the deal with quite favourable terms!
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Livas1
Posted on: Dec 10 2012, 02:47 PM


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Hopefully!

Either way, the results arent too far away, and it all points to being extremely positive.

And we must remember, if it is positive, it will not only show that Artimist is more effective than the current treatment for severe malaria in children, but it is also far easier to administer and doesnt require trained medical personnel.

It really is a terrific product, and IMO the market is no where near valuing it appropriately
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Livas1
Posted on: Dec 10 2012, 02:08 PM


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Yeah mate I agree. I posted this at the other place


From todays announcement:

...... Allows Suda Ltd to fund the ArTiMistâ„¢ project through to registration.

..... It will allow Suda Ltd to further develop the ArTiMistâ„¢ project through to the registration phase.

..... allows Suda Ltd to meet its core objectives of bringing the ArTiMistâ„¢ project to a commercialisation stage, providing an adequate return to shareholders as well as offering an alternative treatment for children with malaria.

..... As we move forward with the ArTiMistâ„¢ project


It reads to me like the trial results are going to be positive and the company is putting in place the next steps.
Thats what you call signalling to the market that you have in your hands a positive Phase III trial result, without actually giving the details.

I like it. I like it a lot
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Livas1
Posted on: Nov 7 2012, 05:43 PM


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Yeah mate couldn't agree more.
Not long to go until the trial results are out. It seems people quickly forget that this is the case!
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Livas1
Posted on: Oct 11 2012, 12:31 PM


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Yeah mate this is a very good development and can only be classified as a good thing.

It will make a HUGE difference to the visibility of Artimist in the global malaria community.

I cant imagine there will be too many private sector representatives there, which makes Eastland's invitation all the more positive.
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Livas1
Posted on: Oct 9 2012, 11:52 AM


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Well in theory the AGM is designed to sign off on the 30 June accounts and given the company hasn't produced any I would say there will be no AGM.
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Livas1
Posted on: Oct 2 2012, 01:59 PM


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According to the release from the ASX SLA were NOT one of the 21 companies suspended for failure to lodge their full year accounts.

Not sure why, as it appears they didnt lodge the accounts.
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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 19 2012, 01:39 PM


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Yep agreed. A very good development IMO on the back of last weeks announcement of the trial result completion!

A very undervalued stock IMO
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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 11 2012, 08:00 PM


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Looks like Vagif and Leo are due to have another crack at mediation next month
https://www.comcourts.gov.au/file/Federal/P...document/279069

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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 7 2012, 04:19 PM


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Market update out
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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 7 2012, 08:32 AM


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Our favourite Siberian Red powered marathon swimmer Chloe McCardel is attempting a triple channel crossing again in the next few days

http://www.chloemccardel.com/

http://twitter.com/chloemccardel
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Livas1
Posted on: Sep 6 2012, 10:29 PM


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I will be there too
Assuming there is one tongue.gif weirdsmiley.gif
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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 30 2012, 09:54 AM


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Hi boris

The ASX just announced the companies that failed to pay their listing fees and as such will be delisted.

SLA were not one of them.

SLA paid their listing fees.


I could say so much... But I have nothing further to add.
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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 29 2012, 06:51 PM


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Hi boris
How do you know that SLA didn't pay their fees by today?
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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 27 2012, 10:18 PM


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I can't imagine the time spent on the case is the best use of Vagifs time....
As for whether it has anything to do with SLA's position and it's lack of cash..... I don't think so.
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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 27 2012, 08:13 PM


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Looks like the case has been adjourned again
https://www.comcourts.gov.au/file/Federal/P...document/275476

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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 20 2012, 04:13 PM


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You should rephrase your post pad23!

The Phase III trials are complete! Patient dosing has concluded.

A terrific announcement and a significant milestone has been reached.
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Livas1
Posted on: Aug 1 2012, 08:23 AM


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Dont think im allowed to.

Either way, it didnt say anything we didnt already know. Just mentioned that Denis is all about executive remuneration tied into LT performance, it mentions how he was a director of SLA, but is still involved bc he is a director of Solamind, and that LK has a court case against them and they are waiting on some documents from Peter Landau before the case proceeds
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 30 2012, 09:50 AM


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http://www.afr.com/p/formula_for_the_corpo...TZp9QsC6L4lpheO
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 25 2012, 02:05 PM


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I believe it is the 5% voting requirement. I have never heard of the 100 shareholder requirement before.

I did a bit of googling

http://www.companysecretary.com.au/board_b...hareholders.pdf

QUOTE
Shareholder Meetings

Shareholders have the right to not only attend general meetings, but to call such

meetings in certain circumstances.

Most commonly shareholders meetings are called by the board of directors, either as

general meetings (involving all shareholders) or class meetings (of only those

shareholders who hold a particular class of share – eg, shares to which different

rights, benefits and/or restrictions are attached).

Shareholders who hold (or, with others, can control) at least 5% of the votes that may

be cast at a general meeting of the company, have the power to:

 call and hold a meeting themselves, or

 require the directors to call and hold a meeting.

Public companies must hold an AGM. Proprietary companies can generally chose to

hold an AGM if they wish (although for some their constitution may require them to do

so) – although most do not hold one.

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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 24 2012, 08:53 AM


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As I said to plastic, I dont really have an opinion.

No doubt what you describe is a possibility
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 23 2012, 01:30 PM


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I can certainly make a guess. It is not an informed one though...

I dont think they will settle as I think Leo K wants this legal challenge to play out in its entirety.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 21 2012, 05:34 PM


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Couldn't agree with you more.
I have no doubt the company has been exploring many types of financing options while in suspension.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 21 2012, 12:24 PM


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What do you think the reasons for the suspension are?
And when do you think we will be trading on the asx again? days, weeks, months????
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 19 2012, 04:41 PM


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From http://www.urbanhealth.com.my/2012/07/02/s...ving-chernobyl/


QUOTE
Surviving Chernobyl

July 02, 2012

Mention Chernobyl and what comes to mind would be the nuclear power plant explosion that occurred in 1986. Before the recent nuclear leak in Fukushima caused by the tsunami, the Chernobyl incident was described as the worst nuclear accident in the history of the world.

Although only 60 deaths were reported, the ensuing radiation that is believed to be equivalent to hundreds of nuclear bombs, resulted in long-term health problems such as cancer and birth defects for the hundreds of thousands of people who lived within the 1.2 mil hectares of farmland surrounding Chernobyl.

In the years that followed, the Ukrainian Scientific Centre for Radiation estimated that infant mortality increased by 20 to 30%, while the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences declared in 2006 that 212,000 people had died as a direct consequence of Chernobyl.

"It was like hell – hot, horrifying and chaotic," recalls Dr Vagif Soultanov, a Melbourne-based medical practitioner who was a scientist attached to the St. Petersburg Technical Academy, Russia, who joined the rescue mission to Chernobyl in 1986 as a medical researcher.

Having conducted extensive research on the therapeutic use of pines conifer for prevention and treatment of radiation, Dr Soultanov had intended to study its effects on radiation-affected people in Chernobyl.

Research into pine conifer had already begun in the 1930s when intrigued scientists tried to understand how they could thrive even in the harshest of weather. It was later discovered that pine trees contained vital compounds that promoted health and prevented infections. These compounds were isolated and named Bioeffectives®.

However, the chaotic conditions at the disaster site saw his plans going up in smoke, as he struggled to keep himself, other mission workers and other survivors alive.

Although the rescue mission workers were provided protection in the form of creams and masks, they were insufficient against the intense heat. "We felt like we were boiling. All I could do was hand out the Bioeffectives® to as many people as possible," he relates.

The life-sustaining extracts were given in drinks, sprayed unto clothes and used as creams to reduce radiation levels.

Dr Soultanov himself took three teaspoons of Bioeffectives® daily (which is 90 capsules) during the six days he was there, a practice he believes helped him survive to tell his story.

Now, 25 years after Chernobyl, he still looked a picture of good health. In a recent interview with Urban Health, Dr Soultanov recalled how he suffered severe migraines and hair loss upon his return from Chernobyl as a result of the radiation.

Recognized worldwide for his work on lignans, a potent antioxidant in all plants that keeps them standing, Dr Soultanov has today conducted countless clinical trials on Bioeffectives and continues to be awed by its efficacy.

He is considered to be an icon for antioxidant research and continues his clinical practice in his natural medicine clinic in Melbourne, Australia, at the same time running Sologran Ltd, an Australian biotechnology company dealing with the production, marketing and distribution of Bioeffectives®.

His Chernobyl experience is not the only reason for his solid belief in Bioeffectives®, however.

"Pine trees in Russia are revered for their resilience; they remain evergreen all year round with or without sun, in extreme temperatures, and in poor mountainous soil. Our research shows pine cells to be highly organised structures with high levels of cholorophyll, carotenoids, phytosterols, squalene, minerals and vitamins," he says.

Apart from having powerful anti-oxidants, anti-microbial and detoxification properties, Bioeffectives® is also found to be effective for gastrointestinal problems such as h-pylori infection. This unique radiation-busting product is available at all leading pharmacies in the form of Nuvapine A™.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 19 2012, 01:39 PM


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I wouldnt have a clue plastic.

All I will say is that the two parties have previously gone to mediation without being able to acheive a settlement.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 12 2012, 04:36 PM


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Case has been adjourned and will resume on August 23

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Livas1
Posted on: Jul 10 2012, 10:58 AM


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Hi Maiden

The company has not announced anything for over 4 months now which means no financial information has been released.

You would have to think that they would be close to running out of money by now, so for them to continue on they need to find some cash from somewhere. Of course the auditors will not give the company the tick of approval until Solagran can demonstrate some viability to them.

So we continue to wait, and either 2 scenarios are forthcoming. 1) The company obtains funding and can continue on. 2) Administrators will be called.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 16 2012, 03:00 PM


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Good find sparkplug
The last sentence is interesting. I wonder who they are referring to.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 12 2012, 09:14 AM


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For those that are interestined, here is a 30 min interview recorded last month with Vagif and a pharmacist from Malaysia discussing H.Pylori.

http://bfm.my/gastrointestinal-problems.html
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 12 2012, 08:51 AM


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And here is another one, this one on H.Pylori

http://www.asm2012.org/abstract/366.asp



QUOTE
Evaluation of the effect of a plant origin therapeutic substance from conifer needles, Bioeffective® A, in relation to bacteria of Helicobacter genus (Helicobacter pylori type) using in vitro model, compared with traditional antimicrobial drugs

  • Prof Anatoly Zhebrun, St-Petersburg, Pasteur Institute, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
  • Prof Vagif Soultanov, Solagran Limited, Melbourne, Australia, Australia
  • Research Associate Aliona Svarval, St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute, St-Petersburg, RF
  • Junior Research Associate Raisa Ferman, St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute, St-Petersburg, RF
  • Prof Viktor Roschin, SM Kirov St-Petersburg Forest Technical Academy, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
  • Ms Tamara Nikitina, I.M. Sechenov Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
Objective: Eradication of H. pylori from the stomach mucosa represents a challenge for gastroenterology in part due to the development of resistance to antibiotics. We studied the antimicrobial effect and possible use of Bioeffective® A (Conifer green needle complex or CGNC) in the treatment of Helicobacter pylori.
Methods: H. pylori isolates were obtained from biopsy material of 25 patients with chronic gastritis and duodenal ulcers. A study of the effect of Bioeffective® A was carried out by a method of serial dilutions with increasing concentrations on agar. Amoxicillin (20 µg/ml), Metronidazole (80 µg/ml) and placebo (saline solution with pH 7.0-7.2) were used as comparator-drugs.
Results: The minimal effective inhibiting concentration of the Bioeffective® A was 100 mg/ml, which resulted in the formation of coccal forms of the bacteria and 300 mg/ml provided complete eradication of H. pylori in an inoculation dose of 0.4 x 107 of bacterial cells. The same strains demonstrated sensibility to Amoxicillin and all were resistant to Metronidazole.
Conclusions: The obtained results demonstrated the potential for use of Bioeffective® A in complex therapy and prophylaxis of gastroenterological diseases associated with H. pylori, in particular, considering the increased resistance of H. pylori to traditional antimicrobial drugs.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 12 2012, 08:48 AM


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Hi all

FYI.

FWIW I didnt know this was a focus of research for the company.

http://www.asm2012.org/abstract/360.asp


QUOTE
New plant origin therapeutic substances from conifer species – Bioeffective A®and Bioeffective E®– are powerful antagonists against fluconazole and ketoconazole resistant Candida strains. Will the plants save us?
  • Dr Ludmila Berezina, St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
  • Prof Vagif Soultanov, Solagran Limited, Melbourne, Australia, Australia
  • L Kulyashova, St-Petersburg, Pasteur Institute, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
  • A Zakrevskaya, St-Petersburg, Pasteur Institute, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
  • Prof Anatoly Zhebrun, St-Petersburg, Pasteur Institute, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
  • Prof Viktor Roschin, SM Kirov St-Petersburg Forest Technical Academy, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
  • Ms Tamara Nikitina, I.M. Sechenov Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry, St-Petersburg, RF, Russia
Objectives: Candida spp. is isolated frequently in the female genital tract. We studied the sensitivity of Candida spp. to fluconazole, ketoconazole - commonly used antifungal agents and new - Bioeffective A® (Conifer green needle complex), Bioeffective E® (essential oil from Abies sibirica), in vitro.
Methods: 145 vaginal samples from patients with chronic vaginitis were collected. The swabs were cultured on Sabouraud agar. 46 isolates, 30 Candida albicans, 6 C. krusei, 10 C.glabrata were studied. All samples were tested for susceptibility to fluconazole and ketoconazole. Isolates were incubated with Bioeffective A® (100 mg/ml, 200 mg/ml, 300 mg/ml), Bioeffective E® (0.5 mg/ml, 5.0 mg/ml, 10.0 mg/ml) for 6 h followed by seeding on plates with Sabouraud agar.
Results: Only 14 out of 30 C. albicans strains were susceptible to fluconazole and 16 to ketoconazole, while 27 C. albicans isolates appeared to be susceptible to Bioeffective A® and 25 strains to Bioeffective E®. All 6 strains C. krusei were resistant to fluconazole and 4 of them to ketoconazole. At the same time resistance to Bioeffective A® was found only in 1 strain and to Bioeffective E® in 2. The number of fluconazole resistant C. glabrata isolates was 8 out of 10 and ketoconazole resistant was 7 out of 10. Bioeffective A® suppressed the growth of 8 C.glabrata strains, whereas Bioeffective E® suppressed 7.
Conclusion: The established in vitro antifungal action of plant origin preparations, herald a new era in the treatment of candidiasis vaginitis.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 6 2012, 09:19 AM


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boris and myshares

I never said nor implied that Barry Marshall was endorsing any of Solagrans products. My statement was that he was there as well as Barry Marshall and Professor Zhebrun.

I certainly did not anticipate being misleading with my comment.

Irishgirl, the title of the article is "news solagral" - ie Solagran news. So it is quite conceivable that Vagif was there championing Bio A rather than Ropren, as Bio A is the more likely candidate targeting H.Pylori.
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Livas1
Posted on: Jun 5 2012, 08:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

An update on the Ropren website shows that Vagif has been over in Russia for a conference on Helicobacter Pylori, along with Barry Marshall (one of the two Aussies who discovered the disease) and Professor Zhebrun.

Text from the site is below, and click on the link for the images

http://www.ropren.ru/news/294217/

QUOTE
05.06.2012 | News Solagral.
Company President, Mr. Solagral V.S.Sultanov attended the joint session "Pioneers helicobacteriosis" held May 28, 2012 in St. Petersburg.

Also in the session, in addition to a number of prominent Russian experts in the field of gastroenterology, made ​​presentations Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, Professor, University of Western Australia Barry J. Marshall , the first time showed that the cause of peptic ulcer disease in most cases the bacterium Helicobacter pylori , and former president of the American Gastroenterological Association, a professor at the University Health Science Center in Virginia D a vid Peura
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Livas1
Posted on: May 28 2012, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

I dont think there is a protocol as such. Plenty of companies out there tend to not announce "bad" news.

As an example - plenty of companies dont announce the contracts they dont win, but only announce the the contracts they do win.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 28 2012, 01:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Yep I believe that was the source of funds the company was talking about in their cash flow reports/announcements late last year.

Of course, the company would be in the best position to clarify.
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Livas1
Posted on: May 25 2012, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

LOL wren

Not all on SLA smile.gif

There is very little SS interest in the other stocks im interested in
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 25 2012, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi rufous

The text from the link is in the post.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 25 2012, 03:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Yep agreed. At least the funding they were hoping for late last year.

Now its onto the ASI...

http://ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/pages/ru...cts/countries/1


[b]
QUOTE
Information about the companies - potential investors in special economic zones in Russian Federation[/b]


The positive experience of cooperation in investment activity is an Australian company «Sologran Ltd», which through its subsidiary OOO "Sibeks" has created an affiliated company «Solagift» with the placement of its facilities in the Special Economic Zone of technical innovation type in Tomsk. The Australian company has already invested U.S. $ 10 million in start-up biotechnology complex in the village Semiluzhki to produce 240 kg of polyprenols in the year. In addition to these products the company produces oil and the aqueous fraction of carbon dioxide extract of Siberian fir. Now the company is planning to invest U.S. $ 25 million in construction of factories and biotechnology research center. Commissioning of new facilities will allow in 2013-2015. to increase sales up to U.S. $ 1 billion a year.

In June 2011 an Australian company (through a management company LLC "Solagral Sun") by the Trade Representation of Russia in Australia has applied to the Ministry of Industry and Russia to receive public funding for an innovative project "Design, development and organization of production of a new class of drugs - stimulants, regeneration, created based substances produced by deep recycling of coniferous trees, "located in the Special Economic Zone of technical innovation type in Tomsk. The application has been made all the necessary documents and expert opinions.

Unfortunately, the project has not found support in the Russian Ministry of Industry.

In November 2011 the company «Sologran Ltd» registered in the innovation center "Skolkovo" its subsidiary OOO "Darius" as a participant in the project establishment and functioning of the innovation center "Skolkovo
</B>
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 25 2012, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi pepee I dont really track the StP locations as closely as I do the Moscow ones.

I occasionally check the Ropren website which has a list of StP outlets.
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Livas1
Posted on: May 25 2012, 08:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Fyi this is now up to 70

http://aptekamos.ru/apteka/price.html?id=51228
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Livas1
Posted on: May 25 2012, 08:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Good to see the good Professor still on the blower about the benefits of Ropren.

Photos of him in action can be found here: http://www.ropren.ru/news/294216/

  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 24 2012, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Further to my post the other night, here is a summary of the trip.

The last line is potentially the most important for SLA...


QUOTE
23.05.2012 concluded a cooperation agreement with ASI Tomsk Oblast Administration and the six leading universities
Source Editorial Team ASI



May 23 during the visit of official delegation of the Agency's strategic initiatives in the Tomsk region held a meeting on the implementation in the region for innovative projects. As the result, agreements were signed on cooperation with the regional ASI and leading Tomsk scientific-educational institutions.


Cooperation Agreement with the Agency's strategic initiatives by the Administration of Tomsk Region have signed the ASI Director General Andrey Nikitin and governor of Tomsk oblast Sergei Zhvachkin.


"We look forward to cooperation with the Tomsk region to create a new model of the cluster approach, - said Andrei Nikitin, after the signing ceremony. - Clusters are now trying to develop this industry cluster, and no one is trying to make full use of educational potential. Tomsk Region is a leader in the country in education. Here, we can create a truly innovative cluster of small, medium, and in the future, perhaps the major industries. For us, this is a very interesting project, and we hope that soon begin to implement it. "


The governor of Tomsk oblast Sergei Zhvachkin said that the signing of an agreement with the Agency's strategic initiatives - an important step in the Tomsk Oblast and Tomsk scientific-educational complex. "We will try together to capitalize on the brains - the head of the region. - Today in Russia there was a situation where there are many projects, the stars that light up, but they are hard to come to an end result - the sale of their ideas. This is why the initiative of Vladimir Putin and the Agency was created for strategic initiatives. "


Andrei Nikitin also informed those present that Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to head the supervisory board of the Agency's strategic initiatives in the new status. "The project we are discussing today, the project is an innovative industrial and educational cluster, we will also make the level of the president and ask him to support", - said CEO of ASI.

Signed today a framework agreement between the ASI and the Tomsk region provides for cooperation on development of the mobility of professionals and teams in the field of medium-sized businesses and social services, improving the business climate and the development of innovative activity in the region, including through support for public interest projects and initiatives.


Separate agreements were signed by the Director of ASI direction "Young professionals" Dmitry Peskov with the heads of six leading universities in Tomsk:
• Tomsk State University (TSU)
• Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU)
• Siberian State Medical University (SSMU)
• Tomsk University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics (TUCSR)
• Tomsk State Pedagogical University (TSPU)
• Tomsk State Architectural and Construction University (Trace)



Agreements with the universities provide an exchange of experiences and best practices of corporate assessment and development of competencies of young professionals, the development of education and intercollegiate programs, systems forecasting future demand for specialists. Agency Strategic Initiatives (ASI), and all of the universities will cooperate in the field of information and consultation on two major programs implemented by the current direction of the "Young Professionals". The first program - an initiative to establish a National System of competences and qualifications (NSKK), the second - "Global Education" - a project to involve the Russian students at leading universities in the process of innovation development of the country.


Also in the Tomsk region will be an educational cluster. To prepare for its establishment, it was decided to establish a working group will be coordinated by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. This idea was first voiced by the director direction "Young professionals" ASI Dmitry Peskov at the meeting with the governor of Tomsk oblast Sergei Zhvachkin in April of this year.


During his visit, the official delegation also visited the ASI site of Tomsk special economic zone.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 23 2012, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Ray

A couple of articles for you

QUOTE
Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Veronica Skvortsov, head of the Ministry of Health.

Ms. Skvortsova appointed to the post of deputy. Minister of Health and Social Development in July 2008, has long been the only specialist in medical education among the leading officials of the Ministry. While serving as Deputy Minister Veronika Skvortsova supervised health, consumer protection and farmdeyatelnosti, as well as the modernization of medical education and staffing.

In January, Veronika Skvortsova candidate was nominated by the Academic Council RNIMU them. N. Pirogov for the post of rector. Interestingly, more May 2, 2012 Evaluation Committee of the Health Ministry has agreed Veronika Skvortsova candidacy for the election of the rector RNIMU Pirogov name and refused to agree on other nominations from the university.

Department of Health and Social Development is divided into two departments: the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Labour and Social Security. The head of the last named Maxim Topilin, the Health Ministry held the post of deputy minister.

Reference

Veronika Skvortsova was born November 1, 1960 in Moscow into a family of doctors.
In 1977 she graduated from high school № 19 of Moscow with a gold medal and was admitted to the pediatric department of the 2nd Moscow Order of Lenin State Medical Institute. Pirogov (2nd MOLGMI).

In 1983 she graduated from the 2nd MOLGMI with honors and enrolled in a clinical internship at the Department of Nervous Diseases 2MOLGMI.

In 1985 she graduated from the clinical studies and enrolled in graduate school on a specialty "nervous disease". After finishing graduate school and early Ph.D. dissertation (1988) worked as a senior laboratory assistant (1988 - 1989.), Assistant (1989 - 1995.), Associate Professor (1995 - 1997) Department of Nervous Diseases, Russian State Medical University (State Educational Institution Medical University previously - 2nd MOLGMI).

In 1993 she defended her doctoral dissertation on "The clinical and neurophysiological monitoring, metabolic therapy in acute ischemic stroke," in 1994 qualified as a neurologist highest category in 1999 was awarded the title of professor.

He has published over 400 scientific papers.
Since 1997 the department was in charge of Fundamental and Clinical Neurology and Neurosurgery, Russian State Medical University.
In 2004 she was elected a corresponding member of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.
Since 2005 was the director of the Research Institute for stroke IM Sechenov Medical University.

Russian Government on July 15, 2008 N 1010-r appointed Deputy Minister of Health and Social Development of the Russian Federation


QUOTE
The New Staff of the Russian Government, which will begin work tomorrow. Veronica I. Skvortsov was appointed as Minister for Health and Social Development. She graduated with honors from the pediatric department of the Second Moscow Medical Institute, defended his doctoral dissertation at the Department of Nervous Diseases, qualified as a neurologist highest category.

In 1989 Skvortsov led neyroreanimatsionnuyu Service First City Hospital of Moscow, and in 1999 became a founding member of the National Association for the fight against stroke.

Since 2005, Veronika Skvortsova was the director of the Research Institute for stroke in 2008 was appointed Deputy Minister of Health and Social Development of the Russian Federation.

While serving as deputy minister, she was responsible, in particular, the development of the acclaimed Law "On the basis of the health of citizens in the Russian Federation" (remember, he came into force on January 1 this year).

In an interview with "Komsomolskaya Pravda" future minister explains in detail what will be useful for the citizens of the new law: "We are introducing mandatory standards for the treatment of diseases. These documents clearly defined and prescribed amount of medical care, including procedures and drugs for specific diseases. And, most importantly, the State appears committed to provide in full the funds needed for the treatment of this disease. " "The law is a norm on the priority of free services. This means that if, for example, there is a queue of people who are entitled for free medical services within the EMS, we can not forward, regardless of the queue to skip pay patient "- says Veronika Skvortsova.

Skvortsov a professor - one of the developers and curators of the bill on the application of biomedical technologies in humans. The new law legalizes cell technologies, including the use of stem cells.

  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 23 2012, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

The other development over there is that Putin has hired Veronica Skvortsova to replace Tatiana Golikova as the head of the Russian Ministry of Health.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 22 2012, 07:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

While nothing exactly SLA related the visit by the ASI to Tomsk certainly cant be a negative.

http://www.asi.ru/announces/2021/

QUOTE
23.05.2012 Visit of the Agency's strategic initiatives in the Tomsk region
Source PRESS ASI

May 23, 2012 will be a visit of the delegation of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives, headed by the Director-General of the Agency Andrey Nikitin in the Tomsk region.

The visit is planned to sign a bilateral agreement on cooperation between the ELN "Agency Strategic Initiatives" and the Government of Tomsk region.

Held a meeting with the governor of Tomsk oblast Sergei Zhvachkin, Director General of ASI Andrei Nikitin, director of "young professionals" Dmitry Peskov and Development Director Alexander Pirozhenko partner network on the implementation of innovative projects in the Tomsk region.

As part of the meeting is expected to sign cooperation agreements with leading universities in Tomsk Region: Tomsk State University (TSU), Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU), Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics (TUSUR), Siberian State Medical University (SSMU), Tomsk State Pedagogical University (Chair for), Tomsk State Architectural and Construction University (Trace).

The delegation will visit industrial facilities and education of the Tomsk region.
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Livas1
Posted on: May 15 2012, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

It looks like the Ropren website has been updated with details from the Office of the President of Russia regarding guidelines for the use of Ropren. The guidelines are 15 pages long. I can only imagine that this has been put together as a result of the desire to have Ropren re-registered as a non pharmaceutical.

http://www.ropren.ru/news/294213/

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=e...ews%2F294213%2F

15.05.2012 | Office of the President of the Russian Federation. Medical Center. Guidelines "CLINICAL DRUG USE ​​ROPREN."

Recommendations prepared by a team of authors consisting of professors Minushkina OD and Ardatskoy MD, Ph.D. Maslov, LV, doctor Bukshuk AA In order to suppress disease activity requires either high doses of drugs (and it is associated with side effects), or supportive care, limiting the quality of life. Neutral faces long-term treatment for a meeting with other diseases, and this is due to the expansion of the terms used in pharmaceuticals and costs of treatment ...
If we talk about diseases of the liver, then at some stage of their development, there are signs of nervous system (encephalopathy, polyneuritis), but when it comes to toxic forms of disease, they will initially have a systemic (liver, pancreas, heart, central nervous system, etc. ..)
All the above leads to the appearance of serious concern drugs with systemic effect of the action, and ROPREN in this respect can justify our expectations ... "


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Livas1
Posted on: May 11 2012, 04:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Im sure once we get some cash in the door that will be his immediate priority
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: May 11 2012, 03:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

Good to see the guys still maintaining a presence at the odd conference

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=r...ews%2F294212%2F

On another matter, Putin has announced that by 2018 he expects at least 90% of all products on the Essential Medicines list to be of Russian origin.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 30 2012, 02:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Maiden

Not sure how this formatting will look but below is the top 20 as at 4 October last year.
Not much would have changed since then.

Note the Salim Group are the largest shareholders with the scientists in Russia 2nd (although they have virtually no chance of their shares coming out of escrow given the SP needs to hit 80c by Feb next year).

AMMF Investments is the company that Tony MacFadden runs. He is a private investor based in Brisbane. No idea who is behind the nominee accounts.


Ace Aim Pte Ltd 48,916,918 14.2%

Solalife Pty Ltd 28,000,000 8.2%

AMMF Investments Pty Ltd 22,500,000 6.6%

J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 18,171,466 5.3%

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited 15,173,913 4.4%

Petrograd Investments Pty Ltd 13,850,000 4.0%

Avondry Pty Ltd 6,661,221 1.9%

Mr Gavin Peter Herholdt 5,320,000 1.5%

Ci�� corp Nominees Pty Ltd 4,997,620 1.5%

Eastok Pty Ltd 4,921,034 1.4%

JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 4,664,633 1.4%

Brinvest Pty Ltd 4,568,000 1.3%

Bronte Investments Pty Ltd 4,154,800 1.2%

BT Por�� olio Services Limited 3,733,000 1.1%

Mr Abu Sahid Mohamed 3,333,334 1.0%

Adnil (VIC) Pty Ltd 3,255,200 0.9%

Ost-Kim Pty Ltd 3,230,592 0.9%

Dr Vagif Soultanov 2,734,349 0.8%

Gasmere Pty Ltd 2,204,000 0.6%

James Street Equi�� es Pty Ltd 2,200,000 0.6%

Total held by Top 20 Shareholders 202,590,080 59.0%

Remaining Balance 140,920,083 41.0%

Total 343,510,163 100.0%

  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 30 2012, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Nope.

They can announce the quarterly if they want but they cant come out of suspension until the half yearly is released
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 30 2012, 10:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Gday maiden

While we are suspended the company is not under an obligation to release the quarterly report.

But should the company wish to have its shares trading on the ASX again then the quarterly will have to be announced.

What is clear to me is that the 2 months since the suspension would have less to do with the auditors signing off on the accounts and more to do about other matters. Whether it has something to do with JV negotiations or getting more capital in the door remains to be seen.

Hopefully not too much longer to wait.
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 20 2012, 12:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Why did you post that pepee?
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Livas1
Posted on: Apr 18 2012, 08:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi NK

I have met Kamran a couple of times and I believe he has been deeply involved in the push into the middle east as well as the poultry trials.

If you have a look back at the announcements when SLA and BPO formed the JV, Kamran was one of two Solagran appointed BPO board members.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Apr 11 2012, 05:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Maiden the quarterly isnt late (yet). It is due by the end of April.
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 19 2012, 07:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

Here is a link to the documentary that was shown over the weekend.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvTumg5vHmc
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 14 2012, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

The latest from the guys at Pine Needle Products

http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=5c75be...mp;e=93282edd49
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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 14 2012, 07:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi Sparkplug

Not sure whether this is the movie you refer to. Check out the video here:

http://tv-technopark.ru/index.php?option=c...17&catid=11

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Livas1
Posted on: Mar 13 2012, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

Hi all

BDO NSW-Victoria is in financial strife and has been ousted by its International network. They are potentially negotiating a sale to a rival accounting firm. Why does this matter for SLA - well BDO are Solagran's auditors.

Its difficult to know how much impact this is having on the release of the report, but its something to bear in mind.
  Forum: By Share Code

Livas1
Posted on: Mar 11 2012, 07:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 7,956

This doesnt apply to Solagran boris

Solagran has lodged its annual report on time. What they havent lodged is the half yearly report and its an ASX requirement and not an ASIC requirement.
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