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China the monster.
nipper
post Posted: Aug 16 2019, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE
"So many manufacturers are moving out of China at breakneck speed. You don't see it in the China-reported GDP growth numbers yet. I suspect that sooner or later it will be visible”

Magnus Nicolin, CEO, Ansell Ltd




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 21 2019, 01:57 PM
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Debt... The bigger monster

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-...enya/ar-AAEA94x



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 29 2019, 09:47 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 29 2019, 08:49 AM

nip - as was pointed out on macrobusiness this would be more of a Bear Stearns moment than a Lehman moment. Just as the US government bailed out Bear Stearns the Chinese have bailed out Baoshang Bank. The Lehman moment broke the dam wall because the authorities refused to bail them out causing a massive systemic shock.

I like how they said that Baoshang Bank had been reporting non-performing loans at only 2% until the muck hit the fan.


Anecdote time: Many years ago I had a meeting with the boss of a second tier Chinese financial entity who insisted that they had absolutely no non-performing loans. Knowing that his firm was based in a part of China that just had a real estate bust I quizzed him on the claim but he refused to budge. Afterwards one of the locals explained to me that if the financial entity did not insist that borrowers pay them back then the loans would not be classed as non-performing even if no repayments had been made. Moreover the rumour was that this financial entity had close working relationships with associates of the PLA and the provincial government so it had virtually an unlimited source of funds (from the provincial government) and had no wish to offend the PLA associates by asking them to repay the loans. No doubt China has tightened up a lot since then but I suspect that a lot of these financial entities would fold the moment various Chinese governments withheld their backing for them.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  mullokintyre  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 29 2019, 08:49 AM
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A Lehman moment?

QUOTE
Key points:
- China's central bank has pumped $125b into the financial system following the collapse of the Baoshang Bank

- The collapse triggered the first ever intrabank default in China, strangling credit to small banks and driving up borrowing costs

- There are fears the tighter credit conditions will further hit a slowing Chinese economy

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-28/b...ection=business



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 16 2019, 10:23 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 16 2019, 04:30 PM

Good point nip. Back in 1989 it was the visit by Gorbachev of the USSR to Beijing in mid May that caused the Chinese leadership to play nice for a while. They even kept Zhao Ziyang on as General Secretary of the Communist Party for Gorbachev's visit but within days he had been effectively purged and it had been decided to impose martial law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Sino-Soviet_Summit



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 16 2019, 04:30 PM
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Posts: 5,864
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While Beijing is publicly ­arguing the [extradition law] issue is one for the Hong Kong government, it its making its views of the situation on its southern border crystal clear.
QUOTE
“Any civilised society ruled by law cannot tolerate illegal ­behaviours that devastate peace and tranquillity and defy the law,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said.
(lol) (don't mention Huawei)

- any (temporary) back down by Beijing is merely a cosmetic nod to the upcoming G20 meeting.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 


jacsar
post Posted: Jun 3 2019, 12:01 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 2 2019, 04:21 PM

thanks nipper, was on one of the Qantas crews that was part of the evacuation of westerners out of Beijing.. photos always bring back many memories


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 2 2019, 04:21 PM
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The thread title is China the Monster. Thirty years on ....

https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/20...ng-on-for-china



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
PeterH
post Posted: May 5 2019, 10:49 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ May 5 2019, 08:04 AM

Kyle Bass is nearly always the smartest guy in the room. Trouble is that he is an American, worse still, a Texan. And Americans just don't get China. They don't get Asia. They don't get anywhere in the world other than the USA. So while he has an extraordinarily incisive and quick mind, his output must be seen in the framework of his handicap.

Bass can still be seen regularly on Real Vision and I would never fail to watch whenever he shows up, but you have to pay for it. He now also appears on Real Vision sometimes as an interviewer of other gurus and he is possibly at his best in this role.
Another guy I would rate with Bass is Jim Grant who also shows up on Real Vision, although we haven't seen him recently. He has possibly a better world view than Bass.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  mullokintyre  
 
triage
post Posted: May 5 2019, 08:04 AM
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Kyle Bass was one of a group of analysts on China that I used to regularly listen to. I've not seen or read anything by him for years but my memory was that he made some couregous predictions which did not quite come to pass and he lost his standing somewhat. Anyway I've stumbled across this recent presentation by him in which he sort of comes across as a USA USA MAGA sort of spruiker rather than a rational analyst.

Interesting what he says about Hong Kong - it has been defying the odds pretty much for as long as I've had anything to do with it. I agree it is overextended in all sorts of ways but then again that has been the case for decades. Who is to say that now is the time it will all crash and burn. From a personal angle it would be not the worst thing to happen if HK hit a (small) wall as I know a few HKers who think that they are invincible as investors and who could do with an ego check (imo).

Also interesting how he is keen for Trumpy not to sign a trade agreement with China but rather wait them out for another six months until they have no choice but to submit, along the lines of the USSR collapsing. Again, I suspect that that is too simplistic a take on things because there is nothing to suggest that the Chinese Communist Party has reached a similar place to the Soviets under Gorbachev. China effectively stood by the US during the GFC and if they think that the US is successfully destabilising them now then there will be repercussions. But anyway USA USA MAGA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFHblUtKOhw



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
 


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