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Commodities, General discussion of commodities
joules mm1
post Posted: Dec 22 2019, 09:42 AM
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most of you are familiar with the Tall Building Index
when there's a brand new 'tallest building of the world' it marks the end of a bull period
has not been a true correlative marker recently
interestingly in gold, when major governments bought and central banks loaded up,
gold ATM's issued bullion and landlords only accepted bars for rent saw a major top in 2011
recently central banks loaded up even more (excepting Canada, eh) and Japan and China went on a bantering spree of Asian exchange with Asia currenciesand now we have this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia...s-idUSKBN1YP04C
Muslim nations consider gold, barter trade to beat sanctions
Liz Lee

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Iran, Malaysia, Turkey and Qatar are considering trading among themselves in gold and through a barter system as a hedge against any future economic sanctions on them, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Saturday.

...pretty sure uber perma bulls will make hay with thisthe counterintuitive bear in my head says believer beware



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 19 2019, 08:28 AM
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From the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science
QUOTE
Iron ore sales are expected to deliver $84bn in export revenue to Australia this financial year, falling to $65.5bn in 2020-21, despite a likely lift in export volumes in the period. That means iron ore has maintained its status as Australia’s most valuable, tipped to beat combined metallurgical and thermal coal sales — worth $56.4bn in 2019-20 and $54.4bn the following year — at a canter.

Gold is tipped to bring in $27.8bn this financial year — a fresh record — against $20.8bn for thermal coal, and $25.9bn the following period, compared to $18.8bn. In the 2018-19 financial year thermal coal sales were worth $26bn, against $18.7bn worth of gold sold. And with gold price still comfortably above $2100 an ounce in local currency terms, the rush of exploration money into the sector, and a projected lift in production, could make Australia “the world’s largest gold producer by the mid-2020s”, the report says.

“Forward expectations suggest that mining companies generally expect investment over 2019–20 to lift by about 15 per cent, to an estimated $38 billion for the year. Actual spending for the September quarter 2019 — the first quarter of the 2019–20 financial year — is trending slightly above what previous estimates suggested,” the report says. “However, investment remains well below its recent peak of $95bn at the height of the LNG boom in 2012–13.”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/m...26246265ffcb30b



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 6 2019, 10:00 AM
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Glencore sees higher zinc, oil production by 2022
Published: Dec 3, 2019
QUOTE
Glencore PLC (GLEN.LN) said Tuesday that it expects zinc and net oil equivalent production to be higher by 2022 while copper production is expected to modestly decline.

The Anglo-Swiss commodity trading and mining company said net oil equivalent production is set to reach a range of between 12.3 million barrels and 13.1 million barrels in 2022. This compares with a range of between 5.3 million and 5.7 million barrels for 2019.

Zinc production is also expected to rise in the period, with production peaking at around 1.4 million metric tons in 2021, and then falling to around 1.2 million tons in 2022, the company said. Production in 2019 is expected to be around 1.1 million tons.

For 2019, coal guidance was reduced by 5 million tons to between 138 million and 142 million tons, and the company expects largely flat production in 2022, offering a range of between 135 million and 145 million tons.

The company expects a modest copper-production decline over the outlook period, primarily reflecting the transition of Mutanda facility in Congo to care and maintenance in the fourth quarter. For 2019, Glencore guides for a production of around 1.4 million tons. This is expected to fall to around 1.3 million to 1.4 million tons in 2022.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/glencore-...2022-2019-12-03



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 2 2019, 03:15 PM
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Growing inequality threatens mining
Richard Mills - Ahead of the Herd | December 1, 2019

QUOTE
Conclusion

For many the fruits of capitalism have shown up as spoilt goods. It’s harder to buy a house, get ahead, save for retirement. Working people are mad as hell, and they aren’t going to take it anymore.

Social upheaval is becoming more common in a greater number of countries. We’ve seen it in Chile, there is also social unrest in France, Spain, Germany, the UK (Brexit), Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Russia, Hong Kong, Venezuela, Chile and Bolivia.

Especially in developing nations, ie. South America and Africa, politicians are pressured by their base, to enact policies that benefit everyday citizens. Inequality is a key driver of what is often a government-led attempt to download wealth from rich corporations to the poor.

Mining companies are targeted by governments intent on reaping more profits from them, expropriating mines, denying permits, or putting more restrictions on miners, all in the name of “the will of the people”. Indonesia’s ban on the export of raw ores, so they can be beneficiated locally, is one example, the closing of 23 nickel mines by Philippines President Duterte’s government is another.

Miners are easy targets because mining is a long-term investment and especially capital intensive. Mines are also immobile, so mining companies are at the mercy of the countries in which they operate. Outright seizure of assets often happens using the twin excuses of historical injustice and contractual misdeeds. There is no compensation offered and no recourse.

Countries are getting creative in how to bleed away miners’ profits. Governments have gone beyond taxation in getting more out of the mining sector with a wave of requirements such as mandated beneficiation (where ore is processed locally rather than exported raw), export restrictions and increased state ownership of mines.

As the demand by Western countries for these raw materials grows, the connections between inequality, social unrest and mining are tightening.


https://www.mining.com/web/growing-inequali...reatens-mining/




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 28 2019, 10:16 AM
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Material Matters: Copper, Iron Ore And Coal
Commodities | Nov 27 2019

QUOTE
A glance through the latest expert views and predictions about commodities. Large cap resources; copper; base metals; iron ore; and coal.

-Major resource companies well-positioned heading into New Year
-Main catalyst for copper is US/China trade deal
-Increasing pressure on aluminium smelters in the face of excess capacity
-Robust demand keeping iron ore market tight
-Russia ramps up production of thermal coal


read more - https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2019/11/2...ore-and-coal-2/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: lgrif  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 12 2019, 02:00 PM
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A good read - Power To The People, And Mining - Richard (Rick) Mills Ahead of the Herd - https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/11/12/pow...ple-and-mining/

Lithium and copper mining get a special mention
QUOTE
Conclusion

Country risk is one of the most serious and unpredictable risks facing mining operations and investor interests – where the political and economic stability of the host country is questionable and abrupt changes in the business environment could adversely affect profits or the value of the company’s assets.

We’ve seen many instances of companies losing assets that were lawfully theirs. Several countries come to mind as places where shareholders could, without warning, receive news that their investment’s operations have been taken over by the government or its friends, or where permits get delayed or canceled outright.

This is not a static list. The Fraser Institute does a good job of ranking countries annually according to their attractiveness to investors. Last year Chile ranked sixth, above copper competitor Peru, all Canadian provinces/territories with the exception of Saskatchewan and Quebec, and every US state but Alaska and Nevada. Where will the lithium and copper powerhouse fall in the next Fraser Institute rankings, given how far the long arm of the state has reached into the mining industry, along with fresh uncertainty caused by wide-spread protests, property damage, deaths and injuries?

It’s a reminder that we, as junior resource investors, must constantly assess, and re-assess, where we put our hard-earned cash. Knowledge is power. Having the right information will save you from making mistakes and hopefully guide you in the direction of shareholder profits.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  lgrif  mullokintyre  
 

sentifi.com

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nipper
post Posted: Nov 3 2019, 11:58 AM
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AJ Lucas, Cudmilla.

must be an election round the corner



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 3 2019, 11:56 AM
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https://twitter.com/i/moments/1190622427052695552
uk bans fracking #gas




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 03:08 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 29 2019, 01:09 PM

Copper prices seen stifled by growth fears next year: Reuters poll
QUOTE
LONDON/ (Reuters) - Prices of copper and other industrial metals are expected to be capped next year as weak economic growth weighs on the market, a Reuters poll showed.

read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-b...l-idUSKBN1X717V



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 01:09 PM
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What a difference a year makes: gloom and doom at Metals Week
Bloomberg News | October 28, 2019 | 7:31 am
QUOTE
At last year’s LME Week, the industry was mostly optimistic. This time, things are looking bleak.

The outlook for some key metals is at the weakest since the financial crisis as the U.S.-China trade war and a synchronized global slowdown pummel consumption and investor sentiment. Economic bellwether copper is flashing warning signals, with demand growth stalling this year as manufacturing contracts.

Attached Image



QUOTE
The only standout in the group is nickel, which has surged amid concerns about tight supply.

Attached Image



read more - https://www.mining.com/web/what-a-differenc...at-metals-week/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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