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India's Changing Economy
solotak
post Posted: Aug 6 2019, 12:12 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 25 2019, 08:21 PM

"The Nifty50 is up 13.6% over the past year and 16.3% over five years."

NDIA ETF performance:
1 year performance -8.09%
5 year performance -9.66%

Doesn't look it's tracking the Nifty50 at all!

 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 25 2019, 08:21 PM
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QUOTE
ETF Securities has teamed with Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management, one of India’s largest asset managers, for the launch of its NDIA ETF. Reliance has a 23 year track record in India and has some $USD 61 billion under management.

NDIA will invest in a basket of stocks based on the Nifty50 Index – which comprises the 50 biggest listed companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), including HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Housing Development Finance Corporation, Infosys, ITC, ICICI Bank and Hindustan Unilever. It accounts for 13 sectors representing about 66.8% of the free float market capitalisation of the stocks listed on the NSE. The Nifty50 is up 13.6% over the past year and 16.3% over five years.

Until now, India has been difficult for offshore investors to access due to the country’s strict foreign investment rules.

Although there are a few unlisted “active” funds that invest in India, ETF Securities’ NDIA is the first vehicle for passive investment available to Australian investors.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 16 2017, 11:16 PM
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I haven’t seen the argument that somehow this concessional loan is going to unlock tens of thousands of jobs,” Shorten said. “If this [project] is such a good deal, it won’t need the taxpayers of Australia to underwrite it.”

The Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm said on Sunday he was also opposed to the NAIF lending Adani any money.

“I wouldn’t like taxpayers’ money going to the benefit of a privately owned company,” he told Sky News on Sunday. “If the mine doesn’t stack up on its own merits then it shouldn’t proceed, it shouldn’t need taxpayers’ money to kick it along.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/a...should-be-doing

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very smart play by that indian rich boss i reckon. cool.gif
interesting to see how this gonna play out???? unsure.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 4 2017, 10:21 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 4 2017, 08:49 AM

mate,
sorry for the irrelevant video ---for indian economy
i just so amazed to see people can feed water to the king serpent with such ease. if i see this snake i would run away from it with speed of olympics sprinter. man!!! ohmy.gif

back to indian economy.
i'm little disappointed for their speed, since Modi been elected few years ago. i remember his best selling point is " we will catch up go pass to china".
to be honest, i see huge potential for india to take over china as the next world's growth engine, but so far seems Modi didn't deliver his promise .......
imagine, if india growing like what china did last 30 years-------man !! we aussies will have another good boom time for commodities.
i'm still hopeful though, as southeast asia all focus on their economics atm.




Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 4 2017, 08:49 AM
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http://www.bhpbilliton.com/media-and-insights/prospects/2016/11/india-the-elephant-in-the-room



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 30 2017, 10:47 PM
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印度遭遇严重干旱 眼镜王蛇闯进村庄讨水喝 [ indian severe drought, cobra force into village bag for water}

http://news.sina.com.cn/zxt/?opsubject_id=top1#251097668

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man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ohmy.gif

 


Pendragon
post Posted: Mar 30 2017, 03:35 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 30 2017, 02:49 PM

Nipper,

Thanks for that post.
Yep - definitely caught me napping!!!

Just a word of caution.
I lost money investing in China 20 years ago because the Chinese did not play by the rules.
I hope India is not the same. Buyer beware??

 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 30 2017, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE
India

By Raoul Pal - March 2017

… it is very rare indeed that a country develops an outsized technological infrastructure breakthrough that leaves the rest of the world far behind. But exactly this has just happened in India... and no one noticed. ….

It's all about something called Aadhaar and a breathtakingly ambitious plan with flawless execution.

Phase 1 – The Aadhaar Act


India, pre-2009, had a massive problem for a developing economy: nearly half of its people did not have any form of identification. If you were born outside of a hospital or without any government services, which is common in India, you don't get a birth certificate. Without a birth certificate, you can't get the basic infrastructure of modern life: a bank account, driving license, insurance or a loan. You operate outside the official sector and the opportunities available to others are not available to you. It almost guarantees a perpetuation of poverty and it also guarantees a low tax take for India, thus it holds Indian growth back too.

Normally, a country such as India would solve this problem by making a large push to register more births or send bureaucrats into villages to issues official papers (and sadly accept bribes in return). It would have been costly, inefficient and messy. It probably would have only partially worked.

But in 2009, India did something that no one else in the world at the time had done before; they launched a project called Aadhaar which was a technological solution to the problem, creating a biometric database based on a 12-digit digital identity, authenticated by finger prints and retina scans.

Aadhaar became the largest and most successful IT project ever undertaken in the world and, as of 2016, 1.1 billion people (95% of the population) now has a digital proof of identity. To understand the scale of what India has achieved with Aadhaar you have to understand that India accounts for 17.2% of the entire world's population!

But this biometric database was just the first phase...

Phase 2 – Banking Adoption

Once huge swathes of the population began to register on the official system, the next phase was to get them into the banking system. The Government allowed the creation of eleven Payment Banks, which can hold money but don't do any lending. To motivate people to open accounts, it offered free life insurance with them and linked bank accounts to social welfare benefits. Within three years more than 270 million bank accounts were opened and $10bn in deposits flooded in.

People who registered under the Aadhaar Act could open a bank account just with their Aadhaar number.

Phase 3 – Building Out a Mobile Infrastructure

The Aadhaar card holds another important benefit – people can use it to instantly open a mobile phone account. I covered this in detail last month but the key takeaway is that mobile phone penetration exploded after Aadhaar and went from 40% of the population to 79% within a few years...

The next phase in the mobile phone story will be the rapid rise in smart phones, which will revolutionise everything. Currently only 28% of the population has a smart phone but growth rates are close to 70% per year.

In July 2016, the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), which administers Aadhaar, called a meeting with executives from Google, Microsoft, Samsung and Indian smartphone maker Micromax amongst others, to talk about developing Aadhaar compliant devices.

Qualcomm is working closely with government authorities to get more Aadhaar-enabled devices onto the market and working with customers – including the biggest Android manufacturers – to integrate required features, such as secure cameras and iris authentication partners.

Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, recently singled out India as a top priority for Apple.

Microsoft has also just launched a lite version of Skype designed to work on an unstable 2G connection and is integrated with the Aadhaar database, so video calling can be used for authenticated calls.

This rise in smart, Aadhaar compliant mobile phone penetration set the stage for the really clever stuff...

Phase 4 – UPI – A New Transaction System

But that is not all. In December 30th 2016, Indian launched BHIM (Bharat Interface for Money) which is a digital payments platform using UPI (Unified Payments Interface). This is another giant leap that allows non-UPI linked bank accounts into the payments system. Now payments can be made from UPI accounts to non-UPI accounts and can use QR codes for instant payments and also allows users to check bank balances.

While the world is digesting all of this, assuming that it is going to lead to an explosion in mobile phone eWallets (which is happening already), the next step is materializing. This is where the really big breakthrough lies...

Payments can now be made without using mobile phones, just using fingerprints and an Aadhaar number.

What is even more remarkable is that this system works on a 2G network so it reaches even the most remote parts of India!! It will revolutionise the agricultural economy, which employs 60% of the workforce and contributes 17% of GDP. Farmers will now have access to bank accounts and credit, along with crop insurance.

Phase 5 – India Stack – A Digital Life

In 2016, India introduced another innovation called India Stack. This is a series of secured and connected systems that allows people to store and share personal data such as addresses, bank statements, medical records, employment records and tax filings and it enables the digital signing of documents. This is all accessed, and can be shared, via Aadhaar biometric authentication.

Essentially, it is a secure Dropbox for your entire official life and creates what is known as eKYC: Electronic Know Your Customer.

Using India Stack APIs, all that is required is a fingerprint or retina scan to open a bank account, mobile phone account, brokerage account, buy a mutual fund or share medical records at any hospital or clinic in India. It also creates the opportunity instant loans and brings insurance to the masses, particularly life insurance. All of this data can also in turn be stored on India Stack to give, for example, proof of utility bill payment or life insurance coverage.

What is India Stack exactly?

India Stack is the framework that will make the new digital economy work seamlessly. It's a set of APIs that allows governments, businesses, startups and developers to utilise a unique digital infrastructure to solve India's hard problems towards presence-less, paperless and cashless service delivery.
  • Presence-less: Retina scan and finger prints will be used to participate in any service from anywhere in the country.
  • Cashless: A single interface to all the country's bank accounts and wallets.
  • Paperless: Digital records are available in the cloud, eliminating the need for massive amount of paper collection and storage.
  • Consent layer: Give secured access on demand to documents.
India Stack provides the ability to operate in real time, transactions such as lending, bank or mobile account opening that usually can take few days to complete are now instant.

As you can see, Smart phones will act as key to access the kingdom.

This revolutionary digital infrastructure will soon be able to process billions more transactions than bitcoin ever has. It may well be a bitcoin killer or at best provide the framework for how blockchain technology could be applied in the real world. It is too early to tell whether other countries or the private sector adopts blockchain versions of this infrastructure or abandons it altogether and follows India's centralised version.

India Stack is the largest open API in the world and will allow for massive fintech opportunities to be built around it. India is already the third largest fintech centre but it will jump into first place in a few years. India is already organizing hackathons to develop applications for the APIs.

Phase 6 – A Cash Ban

The final stroke of genius was the cash ban, which I have also discussed at length in the past. The cash ban is the final part of the story. It simply forces everyone into the new digital economy and has the hugely beneficial side-effect of reducing everyday corruption, recapitalising the banking sector and increasing government tax take, thus allowing India to rebuild its crumbling infrastructure...

India was a cash society but once the dust settles, cash will account for less than 40% of total transactions in the next five years. It may eliminate cash altogether in the next ten years.

The cash ban digitizes India. No other economy in the world is even close to this.

Phase 7 – The Investment Opportunity

Everyone thinks they know about the Indian economy – crappy infrastructure, corruption, bureaucracy and antiquated institutions but with a massively growing middle class. Well, that is the narrative and has been for the last 15 years. But that phase is over and no one noticed. So few people in the investment community or even Silicon Valley are even vaguely aware of what has happened in India and that has created an enormous investment opportunity. The future for India is massive technological advancement, a higher trend rate of GDP and more tax revenues. Tax revenues will fund infrastructure – ports, roads, rail and healthcare. Technology will increase agricultural productivity, online services and manufacturing productivity. Telecom, banking, insurance and online retailing will boom, as will the tech sector. Nothing in India will be the same again.

FDI is already exploding and will rise massively in the years ahead as technology giants and others pour into India to take advantage of the opportunity...
I am long the telco sector (Bharti)... And I am long the Nifty Banks Index... I think India is going to offer an entire world of opportunity going forwards.
Raoul Pal has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

that's some set of claims




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  Pendragon  Brierley  henrietta  
 
kiril
post Posted: Nov 16 2016, 08:27 PM
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Whilst never a place I ever wanted to visit, I have managed to learn a lot about this country as a result of a large investment I have made over the last 2 years in an Australian company managing ATMS in India.

I believe that people here in Australia simply can not grasp the size of the market over there. This is China all over again.

To make money from this opportunity, you need to be select about how you deploy your capital.

I recently met with the Indian management team and was so impressed by their business acumen and depth of skills. They were both ex Citi Group, and recently put together a major corporate transaction without a single investment banker needing to get involved....impressive.

Kiril

 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 16 2016, 05:49 PM
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The Indian Government's dramatic cancellation of large banknotes on the same day as the US election last week looks like the drastic solution to a very Indian problem with tax avoidance and the black economy, but it might turn out to be a harbinger of things to come everywhere....

The Modi Government has announced the demonetisation of 1,000 and 500 rupee notes (about $20 and $10), which are the largest notes on issue in India, effective immediately. That is, they are no longer legal tender.

In his address to the nation announcing the move, Narendra Modi said it was designed to "break the grip of corruption and black money". "…let me invite you to make your contribution to this grand sacrifice for cleansing our country," he declared, channelling John F Kennedy. "Let us ignore the temporary hardship. Let us join this festival of integrity and credibility."

It's more crusade than festival though. Modi's great demonetisation was carried out in secret and followed years of meticulous planning. The Reserve Bank was only told at the last minute, and all banks were closed without warning on November 9th, the day after the announcement.

Over the past two years, a simple zero balance, easy-to-open bank account was promoted, which resulted in 250 million new accounts and 200 million debit cards.

In 2015, the Black Money Act was passed, with tough penalties including jail terms. Then earlier this year the Income Declaration Scheme 2016 was introduced to attract voluntary disclosures, with tough penalties behind it — a sort of amnesty with a sting in the tail.

And earlier this year, Modi introduced a national GST, to both tackle tax avoidance and to align India's tangle of state taxes.

You can see why Modi felt the need to take such drastic action: the amount of cash held by Indians is among the highest in the world — about 12 per cent of GDP — and the black economy is estimated at anything up to 75 per cent on top of official GDP, according to one Government report.

Government data shows that only one per cent of Indians paid tax in 2013 — 28.7 million people filled out tax returns, a bit more than 2 per cent of the population, but 16.2 million of them paid no tax. The average amount paid by those did pay tax, was 23,000 rupees, or less than $500.....
that and high mobile phone penetration



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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