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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Jan 16 2020, 10:30 AM
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-last-...5?mod=home-page


Over-priced IPOs usually occur toward the end of a long bull run when stocks in general become very overpriced,” Lamensdorf wrote. “Why does this happen? Generally because investors have lost their sense of reality. They are willing to buy stocks on hyped stories instead of the facts.”

In other words, investment bankers, he explained, pounce on the opportunity to stuff the stock market — or, as the expression goes, feed the pigs — with overpriced companies as long as the public has an appetite for risk.

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what they say???????????? ahhh history dose rhyme.

not try to scared bulls here. just to flash some lights...................... devilsmiley.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 08:09 AM
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today, we will see so called " phase one deal" be signed
but i reckon it will be the case of " sell the news" event' because the deal it self didn't solve anything

my finger is on the short side button for SPX DAX eg,,,,

 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 5 2020, 01:31 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 5 2020, 12:15 PM

when the crash comes! .... and these are ember attacks



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 5 2020, 12:15 PM
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That old saying about those who don't heed history are bound to repeat its mistakes still holds true.

From WOP

QUOTE
According to the latest derivatives report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Citibank, the federally-insured, taxpayer-backstopped bank owned by Citigroup, has sold protection to other banks, hedge funds, insurance companies or corporations on a staggering $858 billion of Credit Default Swaps. When a federally-insured bank sells protection to others on Credit Default Swaps, it is effectively taking on the risk of a default event. At a time of unprecedented levels of debt in the system and growing warnings about leveraged loans, that seems like a very unwise move by Citigroup.

The OCC notes that Citibank has bought protection via a larger amount of Credit Default Swaps – a total of $898.8 billion. (See Table 12 in the Appendix of the report.) There is no guarantee, however, that these bets are properly aligned and will not, once again, blow up this bank along with a chunk of Wall Street firms or insurance companies that may be its counterparties.

Credit Default Swaps played a central role in the 2008 financial collapse on Wall Street, as did Citigroup. It is an indictment of every federal banking regulator in the United States, as well as Congress, that Citigroup has been allowed to return as a major player in this market while using its federally-insured Citibank once again as a pawn in this game.

Adding to the outrage, it was Citigroup that was responsible for overturning the portion of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 that would have pushed these derivatives out of federally-insured banks.

It may also help to explain why the New York Fed continues to fling hundreds of billions of dollars each week at the trading houses on Wall Street while the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, insists that everything is just fine on Wall Street.

The official report from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, following an in-depth investigation of the 2008 collapse, wrote this about Credit Default Swaps:

“OTC derivatives contributed to the crisis in three significant ways. First, one type of derivative—credit default swaps (CDS)—fueled the mortgage securitization pipeline. CDS were sold to investors to protect against the default or decline in value of mortgage-related securities backed by risky loans…

“Second, CDS were essential to the creation of synthetic CDOs. These synthetic CDOs were merely bets on the performance of real mortgage-related securities. They amplified the losses from the collapse of the housing bubble by allowing multiple bets on the same securities and helped spread them throughout the financial system…

“Finally, when the housing bubble popped and crisis followed, derivatives were in the center of the storm. AIG, which had not been required to put aside capital reserves as a cushion for the protection it was selling, was bailed out when it could not meet its obligations. The government ultimately committed more than $180 billion because of concerns that AIG’s collapse would trigger cascading losses throughout the global financial system. In addition, the existence of millions of derivatives contracts of all types between systemically important financial institutions—unseen and unknown in this unregulated market—added to uncertainty and escalated panic, helping to precipitate government assistance to those institutions.”

“Unseen and unknown” are the operative words in the above paragraph. The Credit Default Swaps were, both then and now, mostly over-the-counter private contracts between a bank and a counterparty. The major Wall Street banks had no idea which of their banking peers had major exposure to bets that were collapsing in value, so the banks simply stopped lending to one another. That sounds a lot like what is happening today and why the New York Fed has become the lender of last resort as well as liquidity supplier of last resort.

Citigroup’s derivatives exposures rendered it a financial basket case during 2008. Not only did Citigroup receive $45 billion in equity infusions from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) approved by Congress and announced publicly but it went hat in hand and received a bailout from the same federal regulators who had allowed this house of cards to engage in absurd levels of risk. The government guaranteed over $300 billion of its dodgy assets; the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guaranteed $5.75 billion of its senior unsecured debt and $26 billion of its commercial paper and interbank deposits. And the New York Fed secretly hid from the public’s view that it had funneled $2.5 trillion (yes, trillion) to Citigroup and its trading units from December 2007 to at least July 21, 2010. That last information only became public after more than two years of court battles with the Fed.

There are more than 5,000 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Deposit Insurance Fund had $104.9 Billion in its Deposit Insurance Fund to cover all of those banks’ insured deposits as of the end of the first quarter of 2019.


US Mainstream media is replete with stories of Celebtrities, Climate Change, Donald Trumps faults, the start of the NFL football season, the democrats primaries, but none seem to want to run with these sort of issues.
is it because its too hard for the average Joe Blow?? Is it because its too hard for the investigative journalists to get their heads around?? Or is it because the media organisations are beholden to the big banks and trading houses because they (a) provide so much of their advertising revenue and (b) are providing a steady sream of bonuses as their share prices go up thanks to the liquidity increase?

When the crash comes, people will be demanding answers as to why they were not warned, and what is the government going to do about it. If the crunch comes before the next presidential election, trump is doomed. If the election is held before it, he will win in a canter.

Mick






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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 4 2020, 06:52 PM
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I would like to put big shout out to Donald Trump and his advisors who decided to bump off the Iranian general.
Middle Eastern politics at its best have pushed gold and silver well up.
And to top it off, the AUD has dumped that estr half cent it gained the other day./
My gold and silver shares have responded accordingly.
Expect further rises Monday.
I just luv it.
Mick



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plastic
post Posted: Jan 4 2020, 05:02 AM
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The Iran - US situation is tense. Going to get worse before it gets better IMHO. What will happen when the price of oil goes through the roof forcing prices up at the pump leaving the consumer with less discretionary cash in their pocket?



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 29 2019, 02:36 PM
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From Corruptr US Banks and the Fed

QUOTE
As Wall Street On Parade has previously reported, JPMorgan Chase has been fingered as the bank that contributed to the Federal Reserve having to intervene in the overnight loan market on September 17 of this year, and every business day since then. The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, has flooded Wall Street’s trading houses with hundreds of billions of dollars weekly in cheap loans over the past three months. That cheap, pre-announced source of liquidity has not only caused the stock market to set multiple new historic highs but has caused the stock of JPMorgan Chase to set multiple new historic highs as well.

Jamie Dimon is the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Dimon admitted on his quarterly earnings call with analysts that his bank had backed away from lending on September 17. That backing away contributed to the overnight lending rate spiking from an average of about 2 percent to 10 percent on September 17. That rate spike was used by the Federal Reserve to justify its interventions – the first such interventions since the financial crisis.

But as it now turns out, few individuals have personally benefitted as much as Jamie Dimon as a result of the Fed’s actions.

Jamie Dimon is one of the largest individual shareholders in the stock of JPMorgan Chase. Those shares are the sole reason Dimon is a billionaire. On October 10, 2019, the shares of JPMorgan Chase closed at $114.21. On October 11, the New York Fed announced a dramatic escalation in its plans to flood money to Wall Street’s trading houses. It said it would be buying up $60 billion a month in Treasury bills; providing $35 billion twice a week in 14-day term loans; and making at least $75 billion in overnight loans available daily. (That $75 billion was later increased to $120 billion available daily.)

Here’s how the share price of JPMorgan Chase has reacted since the Fed’s announcement on October 11, 2019: On October 10, 2019, the day prior to the Fed’s announcement, the stock price of JPMorgan Chase closed its trading day at $114.21 per share. Yesterday, December 26, 2019, the share price of JPMorgan Chase closed at $139.04 – an increase in less than three months of 22 percent.

As Wall Street On Parade has previously reported, JPMorgan Chase has been fingered as the bank that contributed to the Federal Reserve having to intervene in the overnight loan market on September 17 of this year, and every business day since then. The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, has flooded Wall Street’s trading houses with hundreds of billions of dollars weekly in cheap loans over the past three months. That cheap, pre-announced source of liquidity has not only caused the stock market to set multiple new historic highs but has caused the stock of JPMorgan Chase to set multiple new historic highs as well.

Jamie Dimon is the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Dimon admitted on his quarterly earnings call with analysts that his bank had backed away from lending on September 17. That backing away contributed to the overnight lending rate spiking from an average of about 2 percent to 10 percent on September 17. That rate spike was used by the Federal Reserve to justify its interventions – the first such interventions since the financial crisis.

But as it now turns out, few individuals have personally benefitted as much as Jamie Dimon as a result of the Fed’s actions.

Jamie Dimon is one of the largest individual shareholders in the stock of JPMorgan Chase. Those shares are the sole reason Dimon is a billionaire. On October 10, 2019, the shares of JPMorgan Chase closed at $114.21. On October 11, the New York Fed announced a dramatic escalation in its plans to flood money to Wall Street’s trading houses. It said it would be buying up $60 billion a month in Treasury bills; providing $35 billion twice a week in 14-day term loans; and making at least $75 billion in overnight loans available daily. (That $75 billion was later increased to $120 billion available daily.)

Here’s how the share price of JPMorgan Chase has reacted since the Fed’s announcement on October 11, 2019: On October 10, 2019, the day prior to the Fed’s announcement, the stock price of JPMorgan Chase closed its trading day at $114.21 per share. Yesterday, December 26, 2019, the share price of JPMorgan Chase closed at $139.04 – an increase in less than three months of 22 percent.




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Mork
post Posted: Dec 26 2019, 10:12 AM
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Old school Dow Theory.

There's currently a divergence between the Dow Industrials and the Transport indexes that's between in place for over 15months

Attached File  divergence.png ( 791.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 25 2019, 05:12 PM
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Art Ccashin has some recent sucess at markets predictions.


For the second year in a row, Art Cashin, the head of UBS's floor operations at the NYSE, was spot-on with his market calls in 2019.

Last December, Cashin told CNBC that he expected the Federal Reserve wouldn't raise interest rates during the coming year. In fact, Cashin said late last year that he felt there was now "an outside chance" that the Fed would cut rates in 2019. At the time, many scoffed at that call. But Cashin turned out to be correct.
He was also correct about whether the US and China would manage to strike a long-term trade deal. "I don't believe so," Cashin said. "I think we will get something that approximates it, and you’ll get perhaps in midyear a relaxation rally, but - with - with the problems of - political sequencing, whatever, I don’t think it works out."


As for whether the US would succeed in striking a lasting trade deal with Beijing before the end of the year, Cashin insisted that the answer was 'most likely no'.

QUOTE
"I don’t believe so. I think we will get something that approximates it, and you’ll get perhaps in midyear a relaxation rally, but - with - with the problems of - political sequencing, whatever, I don’t think it works out."

So, Cashin sat down with CNBC's Bob Pisani at Bobby Van's Steakhouse, across from the NYSE, to discuss what Cashin sees coming down the pipe for markets in 2020.

Cashin offered three predictions - that's fewer predictions than usual: His first prediction was that there will be no Fed hikes over the coming year. His second is that the market's winning streak will continue, and that the big US stock indexes will finish the year higher.

Finally, although Cashin expects stocks to rise next year, their ascent will be punctuated by several periods of extreme volatility, particularly during the months of January, March and July.

Prediction one: Despite a still-strong U.S. economy, there will be no Fed rate hikes in the next year.

"I think the Fed is somewhat intimidated by the market...And the market, if anything, thinks the Fed is ahead of itself on higher rates."

Prediction two: The market winning streak will continue and the broader indexes will be up in 2020.

"Eight out of nine times that we’ve had an up year like we had this year, it’s followed by another decent up year. Not quite as strong, but still strong, and so I’ll go with history."


Prediction three: Stocks may be up, but there will be several periods of volatility, particularly in January, March and July.

"In late January, we’ll get to see if there’s going to be a Brexit now that [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson got a sweeping move in Parliament. And will he, in fact, push through a no-deal Brexit? That could make the markets very volatile and jumpy. The next thing will be the U.S. election. Number one, in early March, we will get Super Tuesday, and one-third of the U.S. populace will vote. And we’ll get to find out where [Democat Mike] Bloomberg’s strategy is. Who looks to be the leader? Has anybody locked it up? If not, then it could be a brokered convention, and that date would be in the middle of July, when the convention will be."


The full article and interview can be found HERE

He mentions that the level of funds injected into the repo market, is now higher than the level of QE they injected during the GFC.
And although the FEd refuses to call it QE, the calls it for what it is, QE.

I found it interesting that hes reason for predicting there would be no further rate increases was that the FEd is intimidated by the market. He says the market reckons that the FED got ahead of itself with the rate rises last year, , so Fed is a bit reluctant to increase again. (not that they have much reason to do so).

I particularly like his idea of going with history, namely in eight out of nine times an up year is followed by another up year, though not as strong.

The volatility index cashin talks about has been in a general downward trend since 2010 . This time last year, it was sitting on 30, today its just above 12.


Mick



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joules mm1
post Posted: Dec 23 2019, 12:18 PM
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"..That is significantly higher than the peak earnings multiples achieved before previous crashes — 18.86 of October 1929 and 18.69 in October 1987 — and is only surpassed by the massive spike of the Dotcom bubble."
Colin Twiggs


Attached File  PE_ratios_precrash_CT_231219.png ( 49.49K ) Number of downloads: 3

(if you are not on the email list, commend you receive the letters, free, a decent summary of data and market concepts)



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

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