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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Jul 26 2019, 09:57 AM
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https://www.afr.com/rear-window/hotcopper-s...20190725-p52ane

how ASX-listed sharemarket forum HotCopper was often used by "dark ops investor relations advisers and pump-and-dump operators" to promote stocks the posters had no intention of holding for long to unwary punters at the best possible price


HotCopper's investments to 1H19 were down 30 per cent. Perhaps it should have been going short ...

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ah---oh!!! competition heats up?????


Said 'Thanks' for this post: myshares  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 21 2019, 11:37 AM
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Manufacturing is in retreat, threatening to take the global economy down with it
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Posted about 3 hours ago
QUOTE
If the world's factories are any measure, then the global economy is looking rather gloomy at the moment.

In June, manufacturing output slipped to a three-year low. It is now teetering on contraction.

European output is already in reverse, and has been for some time, dragged down to a large extent by German factories which have been enduring recessionary conditions for much of the year.

As measures of economic health go, Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) are pretty dependable.

The global PMI, collated by the big investment bank JP Morgan, found the falling June output pointed to manufacturing stalling mid-year.

Currently, JP Morgan's global composite PMI is holding just above 50 — the mark denoting economic expansion — while the forward-looking "new orders" PMI fell under 50 in May for the first time since 2012.

Part of it can be sheeted back to global trade hostilities, particularly between the US and China, and part of it is just a cyclical economic funk.

Attached File  global_pmi_data.png ( 96.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
Markets ease
Friday saw markets edge back from uber-bullishness as the bets of a big 50 basis point cut from the Fed at the July 31 meeting were taken off the table.

On Thursday, the Fed's vice-chair and boss of the New York Fed John Williams comment about the need to "vaccinate the economy" was taken as a heads-up a big economic shot in the arm was its way.

"It's better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold," Dr Williams told a gathering of economists. "Don't keep your powder dry."

With the Fed's self-imposed black-out on pre-meeting comment bearing down, the New York Fed pointed out the good doctor's musings were purely academic, and not specifically about the July meeting.

Needless to say, US President Donald Trump — a fierce advocate of cutting rates and driving the US dollar down — was far keener on the original interpretation than the subsequent clarification from the Fed.

The upshot saw the rate bulls neutered somewhat; Wall Street indices fell and bond yields rose. The ASX looks like following that lead down on Monday's opening.

Markets on Friday's close:
ASX SPI 200 futures -0.4pc at 6,616, ASX 200 (Friday's close) +0.8pc at 6,700
AUD: 70.4 US cents, 62.7 euro cents, 56.3 British pence, 75.9 Japanese yen, $NZ1.04
US: Dow Jones -0.3pc at 27,154 S&P500 -0.6pc at 2,977 NASDAQ -0.7pc at 8,146
Europe: FTSE +0.2pc at 7,508 DAX +0.3pc at 12,260 EuroStoxx50 -0.1pc at 3,480
Commodities: Brent oil +0.9pc at $US62.47/barrel, Gold -1.5pc at $US1,425/ounce, Iron ore $US122/tonne


read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-21/manu...ection=business



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  nipper  
 
plastic
post Posted: Jul 20 2019, 06:01 AM
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Pre-Trump or under Hillary, the markets would be in a tail spin and an oil crisis would be underway. Still may come too. But for now, it sure seems like something has changed in the market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-19/b...red-seized-irgc

QUOTE
Iran Seizes Two Tankers, One Belonging To UK For "Violating International Regulations"


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-19/s...-1000-overnight

QUOTE
Something Just Broke In China As Repo Rate Soars To 1,000% Overnight




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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 19 2019, 06:24 PM
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But then again, a canary ??
QUOTE
Signs of a decelerating US economy are showing up on the nation’s railways, as the carriers of bulk goods from coal to steel report falling freight volumes.

An index of the biggest US railway stocks fell more than 7 per cent on Wednesday after a gloomy business prognosis from CSX, whose 21,000-mile network runs east of the Mississippi river.

The company predicted a 1-2 per cent decline in revenue this year, abandoning a previous forecast for growth, as its boss outlined a “slow, lazy, malaise-type drift down”.

“The present economic backdrop is one of the most puzzling I have experienced in my career,” said Jim Foote, CSX chief executive, during a call to discuss second-quarter results.

His comments came amid mounting uncertainty about the direction of the US economy. Despite strong domestic employment, growth is expected to slow this year. The lengthening trade war with China has added to businesses’ anxiety.

In the year to early July, US rail traffic has declined by 3.2 per cent compared with the same period last year, according to the Association of American Railroads.
Financial Times

https://amp-ft-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/a...ee-3cdf3174eb89




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Jul 19 2019, 01:11 PM
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USA sentiment ...... It's the 400kg gorilla
QUOTE
The relationship between the slack in the economy or unemployment and inflation was a strong one 50 years ago ... and has now gone away. [The relationship] has become weaker and weaker and weaker.”
Jerome Powell, Chairman, US Federal Reserve

"I think right now the challenges - and maybe it's the opportunity - in that we're clearly pivoting from an environment where we had predicted or thought or had been built-in rising rates to at this point rates going lower. And I think from our perspective, we don't believe that the market has made that full adjustment."
Mike Corbat, CEO, Citigroup Inc

"We continue to see positive momentum with the US consumer; healthy confidence levels, solid job creation and rising wages."
Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan Chase

"We see solid consumer activity across the board."
Brian Moynihan, CEO, Bank of America Inc

"In speaking to many of our clients, each industry has particular concerns; but if I had to sum it up, everybody - most people believe that the U.S. economy continues to perform well. At the same time, they recognize that the U.S. economy has never performed this well for this long at any point in the past, and so at some point you can expect some dips or some changes."
John Wren, CEO, Omnicom Media Group [global media conglomerate]




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
rog
post Posted: Jul 13 2019, 10:09 AM
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It’s my belief that judging today’s market performance, or any days performance, against historical “record highs” is meaningless unless inflation is factored in.

The much discussed pre gfc ASX200 high of 6,828 happened about 11.5 years ago. Allowing for inflation at 2.1% that value would be in excess of 8,500 - and that’s not including any effect from compounding.

So talk of a correlating correction is very premature.



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With money in your pocket you are wise, you are handsome, and you sing well too.

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plastic
post Posted: Jul 13 2019, 10:02 AM
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Every day there is a new record being set in US markets. How long can it go on for?




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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 12 2019, 10:18 AM
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QUOTE
One of the most common measures of risk in financial markets is volatility. The more an asset price moves up and down over time, the greater the risks to your invested capital. Increased volatility can be a positive thing for investors, in that it can result in oversized gains as much as it can result in greater than expected losses. Regardless of your risk profile however, ignoring a rise in volatility as you pursue your investment objectives is rarely an advisable strategy.

One of the clear trends in equity markets recently has been that volatility is rising, with the monthly price swings seen across share markets today much greater than what is typically expected. By example, over the last five years, global share markets have risen or fallen by more than 5% in a month only eleven times - with five of these eleven occurrences happening since October of last year.

The month of June was no exception to this trend of increasing market volatility. After falling by 5.9% in May in US$ terms, global share markets rose by 6.5% during June. A weaker than expected US payroll report during June fuelled already building expectations that the US Fed may deliver a 0.50% ‘insurance’ rate cut at its July meeting. Share markets duly rallied on the prospect of substantially easier Fed policy in the months to come.

In local currency terms, the US share market rose 7.0% in June, while European and Japanese equity markets rose by 5.2% and 3.5% respectively. In Australia, the local equity market rose by 3.7%, while in Australian dollar terms the MSCI All Country World Index increased by 5.3%.

- at present, markets are such slaves to the Fed (until they aren't!). The Powell Put lives




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 11 2019, 09:44 AM
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QUOTE
[In New York overnight] the benchmark S&P 500 briefly crossed the 3000 points mark in early trading for the first time after dovish remarks from the Fed's Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a rate cut.

"Powell's testimony and the June FOMC minutes reiterated the message that rising crosscurrents had increased risks to the US economic outlook," TD Securities said in a morning note. "In light of this, Fed officials appear ready to adopt a more accommodative stance. On net, we find the message supports a 25bp cut at the July FOMC meeting, in line with our view. "We expect the Fed to continue easing in September and October as global uncertainty continues to weigh on business investment and inflation remains uncomfortably below-target in the near horizon."

The Dow also hit an intraday record while the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high following the release of prepared remarks for Powell's testimony before the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee.

"On balance, investors live by the credo: 'Don't fight the Fed,' and if rates are being cut - whatever the reason - they have often stood by stocks so I'm not surprised we're making new highs," said Rick Meckler. "But it's a market that's come an awfully long way. And I think you're running out of investors willing to put too much new money in without some indication that earnings can stay strong."




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 10 2019, 06:59 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jul 10 2019, 06:51 PM

QUOTE
sharemarket is one such beast. , shares are (mostly) liquid. Property is quite illiquid
please ring the bell 10 minutes before the bell is due to be rung smile.gif

And I reckon most property 'gurus' make their returns in spite of the market, not because of it. I mean, trying to time exit and entry?? really !




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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