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neutron
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 08:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Thanks anne.

Nice analysis.

I liked the stem cell angle, it really seems to be on the verge of serious growth atm. That wasn't the case 6 years ago when that article was written. Maybe that is why they has their breakout year last year? Will it be a flash in the pan though?

I want to know whether they can back up that nice little profit last year and become a sustainble profitable business. The last qtrly was not that inspiring so I will wait another month for the next qtrly before I would buy some more.

Ethics are fine with as I find the stockmarket as a whole pretty unethical wacko.gif

---

Saw a story last week relevant to your MSB and this thread topic....

An English man with a badly broken leg faced amputation below the knee due to the severity of the breaks...

As a last resort a stem cell paste was inserted in the break and the the bone was wired together...

The bone fused nicely and he is expected to make a full recovery withing 18 months.

Exciting stuff isn't it.

Thanks again, biotechs are my bogey... if I had to make my living of the back of them I would have had to go and get a real job a long time ago.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Dec 19 2009, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

It doesn't really meet your sexy concept criteria in that its more a biotech bank, but biotechs that are profitable are a novelty on our exchange. CSL has done very well out of blood plasmas after all...

It all comes down to whether they can back up last year's result I guess. But my experience with biotechs has been pretty poor to be honest, so not holding my breath.

The last qtrly was a mixed bag, tax obligations hurt... so a lot riding on their next qtrly. The price action will no doubt tell us first anyway, looks like drifting back like I said.

But their is no denying stem cells are going to be a "sexy" component of the biotech sector next few years.

Just of topic... remember the hype around ABI some years ago? It was nanotechnology, very sexy at the time... well research released a few months ago revealed that nano-particles placed outside the cellular membrane were able to intefere with the RNA/DNA replication process.... ouch !!

This was not expected and a major setback for the technology... implication is that possible side effect of using nano particles is prolific cancer formation.

This is from memory so maybe bit foggy on the exact details but I think I that is the gist of it.

Shows how challenging and risky the sector is I guess.

Probably explains why most Peppermint Grove directors prefer punching holes into the ground.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Dec 19 2009, 06:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Seeing you took a few MSB, have a look at CBB anne.

I hold a few (and only a few) at a price not to much below current price.

I am not sure how I feel about their 10% entry into China Stem Cells, it was a big bite for what they are and I would have liked to see some sort of profitability forecast first, which they seem to be on the cusp of... and subsequent earnings growth expections.

Perhaps they are wheeling and dealing towards critical mass ?!?

Keen to buy a few more but need to see a little more from these guys first.

If anyone is going to buy any stock, they are thin and patience on the bid probably a better strategy then chasing the ask imo, especially as she seems to be drifting down which may be indicative of a news vacuum for now?

Interested in your thoughts anne if you have the time, you have a better feel for these kind of plays then me.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Nov 13 2009, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

its funny how in times of sadness certain songs just jump into ones mind and stick there.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Nov 13 2009, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-fJ9ROrW08
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Nov 9 2009, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

welcome back z.

Yep, goldies good trading atm... apart from RED.. AAM, KRM and HIG (dash of Cu) I added to today... trading a bit in the middle too...

enjoy...
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Nov 2 2009, 08:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

i) That I will never definitively know why energy exists and how it came about to do so, or for that matter, why there is no reason anything exists at all.

ii) Bad drunks.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Gold was the first sector I traded when I started ~ 10yrs ago.

I even remember the first gold stock I ever bought.

DIO.

Always have a soft spot for the goldies, hope they can show the other commodities what parabolic is all about.

Its has been a golden week so far anyway.
  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 8 2009, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

You must be pleased now that the market is moving in your direction.

Enjoy.
  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 5 2009, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

They got me too arty.

I love it. Nice crisp right caught me right on the nose.

CFU has always had a habit of pulling me back in line. :-)
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 5 2009, 05:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Over the last 10 years I have been confronted with this thread title a fair bit.

I don't give much of an answer, what can you say anyway? I leave the labelling to others and just roll up the sleeves and get on with it.

Gambling=Risk=Life ? I don't know, something like that.

Share Trading is an excellent exercise in critical thinking and human psychology, if you like that kind of thing it really is a lot of fun. The best part is you can make good money doing it if you are prepared to work hard and take plenty of hits to head and body...

Just don't use credit, that's about it. If you bust out when you are young you either walk away early lesson learnt or come back bit more shrewd next time. Both ways you have more time on your side then most of us here.

Believe me, we would all trade plenty of our honkey nuts for more time to live.

Watch and learn....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Oct 5 2009, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Is letting your 16yo daughter sail around the world gambling ?!?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 28 2009, 09:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Thanks wolv, it is probably the biggest fish I have caught.

Everything you said is true, I was very aware of the people behind SFR and their knowledge of "the game".

what set my radar off was the way they punched down those vertical holes all around that one angled hole, bit odd for a greenfield exploration grid. The clues were in the update on the 30th April...

It was hard to buy though, it was very illiquid then, when I bought my first parcel the spread was ~40%... but she came off big time.

I remember we made some good money on that dog FCN few years back, might be worth keeping an eye on her again... early days though.
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 28 2009, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

bought these at ~16c as per my HC posts at the time (neutron=kurious).

all out now though.

nice run.
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 27 2009, 01:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

A tale of two fisherman...

Sam caressed his beaten up dingy into the pristine blue water, just a hop-step-jump from his cabin at the edge of the bay. His stomach full and warm with croissants and coffee. Not long now before he would be at his favourite fishing spot on the large lake. A sheltered bay, surrounded by proud tall Jarrah trees and lush undergrowth that crept right up to the waters edge. His favourite lure, prepared the night before, would soon be doing its thing, while Sam would wait patiently for that elusive big bream to wander by....

Pete couldn't see much, probably why he smashed his toe on the sharp rocks as he forced his new inflatable dingy against the wind into the choppy waters of the lakes edge. It would be light soon though, at least he would be able to grab a quick snack out of his esky to ease the hunger pains. His primary concern was not to damage the flash new sonar gear on the rocky bottom before he found some depth. As usual Pete had little idea where he was going to end up that morning, no doubt the big bream were holed up in some god forsaken corner of the lake. He had a fair idea which lures were going to be popular this morning, but you can never be sure... best to have them all ready.

Which fishermen r u ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 24 2009, 10:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
if you buy something because its valuable as it falls it becomes more valuable ---- why sell?


I like the easy questions, they make me look like I know something about markets...

Answer => You sell because your experience tells you that despite the rosy fundamentals and analysts BUY reco's... you just know that there is a corpse in the closet and it is starting to stink real bad. Of course when the beans are spilled it will be much too late to sell, you will have done your dough.

Gee, I remember some of the clowns on this forum (and others) 12 - 15 months ago who thought they knew better then the market...

Gold means little in a world on the cusp of civil unrest due to the threat of a collapsing financial system.

It then becomes about muscle, guns, military might etc... Sure you have the gold... but I have the bigger gun and now your gold is mine... you couldn't accept that one could you flower... didn't fit into your fundamnetal analysis.

Thank god it didn't come to that, full credit to our leaders for printing our way out of that scenario imo... Now we can all have our little bitch, warm and safe in our little homes....

Learn to trust the market over your own intellect and you will do well.

Sure, read a Buffet book, read a Livermore book... then forget about them both and approach the market more realistically...

imho....
  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Sep 19 2009, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
topped and dropped,
as foreshadowed by Bearish MACD Divergence


How do you interp the ETFS GOLD (GOLD.ASX) weekly chart atm?

Cheers.
  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Sep 19 2009, 06:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
It does not seem unreasonable to me that XJO could be approximately where it is today in a years time after some ups and downs which would make the above two scenarios relevant.


The market doesn't give a toss about what you and I find reasonable.

Your stock entries/exits should not have much weighting from your tax obligations imo.

If you are paying tax on your stocks it means you are making a profit. Well done.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 10 2009, 11:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
Interesting to see this discussion board restored. Re reading all the old 2007 posts I wonder who is still in there & running.


Present miss Jane.

Used "the big dip" of 2008/09 to discover the blues and rekindle my love for the guitar...

RIP Les...
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Sep 6 2009, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

arty has said it all.

Unfortunantly many fire at the same time... that is the way of the market...

I have things set up in such a way that a watchlist that is blank at the start of the day fills during trading as the alerts fire... but it is still crazy sometimes...

It doesn't worry me if I don't trade them all... financially not feasible anyway.

But that doesn't mean I can't be alerted to all the movers and shakers, and the ones that fly that I passed on... no problems.

It was seeing the flyers at night on the charts and not having the opportunity to play during the day that used to drive me nuts....

In as sense i have ~ 500 ASX listed stocks in my universe... I treat them all like they are mine, which ones I happen to hold at any given point in time is inconsequential really, they are all my babies...

Remember all stocks have their own little dynamic personalities, an alert is more individualised... while a sweeping scan (though more complex in development) does not allow for a particular stocks quirky traits and mannerisms...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 4 2009, 03:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
No problem though for an old fossil like me


smile.gif

Well I am nearly half your binary age and fond of pascal too.

If you want to know how sad I am my fav language has always been assembly... something intimately hardcore about it....

FMS mexican stand off... will she, won't she....

Have a good weekend arty and keep up the good work.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 4 2009, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
...scanning the entire ASX for stocks that fit...


I had worked that out with you.

I believe the next generation of market platforms will have in built, customizable scanners... doing just what you have coded yourself....

DDE ? That is what I used... VB language... real time scanners.... just spit out the stock that meets the criteria in the empty watchlist (Excell Cells?)...

That is what I did anyway....

I couldn't manage 261 on webiress... to cumbersome... need a more advanced alerts system... a compromise between DDE interface and Web Iress alerts... I use pulse...

I guess what I wanted to show is that an Alert System is not a small subset of a chart based trading system but a seperate system when it comes to intra-day trading...

This will become more prevalent as trading platofrms evolve to a level of functionality as I have discussed above. imho.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 4 2009, 01:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Hi arty,

No.

My alerts are linked to an ASX data feed. The code behind the alerts is oblivious to charts, just scans the feed for my criteria.

I had a quick look.... I have 261 alerts atm.... that is the easy bit... the trick is knowing which alerts to fold on and which ones to trade one.... that is where the skill is....

For example.... I note one particular trader at HC who has an uncanny knack of posting a chart on a trade just minutes after I have entered. This is not co-incidence of course but a result of similar alert systems obviously.... yet I have yet to see much acknowledge on this crucial, crucial part of trading...

Makes me smile sometimes, traders can be a sneaky bunch....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 4 2009, 12:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Yeah it does triage, nice article.

The environment that you create around your trading world is critical when it comes to slipping into an emotional range that works for you as a trader imo.

As far as planning trades etc... yeah it is important for sure... but it is equally important to be dynamic and allow your greatest asset to give you your edge...

I imagine these days most pro's have an alert system that is as critical to timing their charts as the charts themselves.

Lots of time is allocated on forums to charts and related analysis... but the alert system rarely gets mentioned ?!? Yet it too is key...

imo.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 3 2009, 10:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Mood swings.... you touch on something arty that is perhaps more potent then all the other factors already mentioned....

Most people have the capacity to learn the tools necessary to trade successfully yet few can execute over a period of time and by default market cycles...

Understanding the range and stimuli of fluctations in your own brain chemistry is perhaps the key.... all the talk of mindset, trading in the zone, gut feeling acknowledge this imo...

So if you know your brain chemistry is not where you would like for a good day in the markets... walk away !!

Gotta go...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Aug 26 2009, 02:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Hi there K1,

Good to see you again.

I know where you are coming from, the thoughts you just shared have all gone through my head last 12 months or so... believe me.

But you know... nothing will change despite your good intention.... greed is in the DNA and when its fevering people just don't care... the ones that do will turn their back on the market and fresh blood emerges.... taunting good folk yourself and questioning your judgement.... but that's ok... they are the shark bait I suppose...

In time threads like RRS, NWE etc.. will be bubbling away again all forgiven and forgotten....

Let go of what you can't change and be blessed we have the skill to roll up our sleeves and work the markets to enjoy our most precious commodity.... Time...

Good luck with the book etc... if you decide to go down that way....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Aug 19 2009, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
Australia can do things no other nation can.....


You bet it can.

An immature nation with tremendous growth opportunity.

For the rest of my life I doubt few will get burnt if they go long Australia...

Maybe some of the bears on this thread should stick the above on their wall when indulging in comparitive analysis.

Always keep a lazy eye on the average Coles/Woolies wage... that is where the adjustment will come... waiting for RE to crash... good luck !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jul 11 2009, 06:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Yeah, Probably Telstra... though what I am planning is very much an experiment really so maybe even multiple providers....

I know the laptop driving thingy looks nuts but my thinking is as such...

Instead of lugging a caravan (ie. mobile trading office) all around the state only to find most places just have no stable network.... I thought I could run a bare bones setup from my car while I dart around the state... making my own map of wireless coverage with my own rating system....

Though Telstra show areas covered by their wireless network I need to know how stable and fast they really are... when I am fully immersed in the market and I really start to open my shoulders I can be executing in excess of 20 trades a day no problems at all... So I need a certain threshold of reliablity and speed... in that order...

Having said all that, I am building towards a setup that will enable me to trade the pants of the market from any location in the state (or country) no matter how remote (my cruiser is diesel smile.gif ... and I have access to two-way satellite biggrin.gif )

But I before I go fully mobile I want to know how good (or not) Sol's wireless network really is in 2009 in WA.

The catch is I have little interest in big cities (or towns) or anywhere there are a lot of peeps really...
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Jul 11 2009, 05:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Ok. Found Oz distributor, will call them Monday...

http://www.antares.com.au/products/vehicle...tions/index.php
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Jul 11 2009, 03:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

The more I look at it the more I like it theadder.

I am googling now for an Australian supplier.

Thanks.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Jul 11 2009, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

biggrin.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Jul 11 2009, 02:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Hi all,

I am looking at fabricating some kind of bracket/stand that will enable me to swing a decent size/weight laptop right next to my steering wheel (LH side of course).

It would be in a 100 series cruiser.

This way I would be able to execute trades in comfort from both the drivers and passengers seat in my car.

I am planning to test the wireless network (just around WA initially) to see exactly where I can and can't trade.

Anyone fabricated/bought something similar, any ideas?

Thanks.

ps. I would not really trade while driving cos that would be dangerous of course, wait for traffic light etc :-)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Jun 25 2009, 11:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Prudent thinking to lock in and bury the recent gains wolv, can't trust those nasty banks....
  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: May 15 2009, 01:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Even though it pains me to admit it, if you "get" what the likes of Arty, BSA & Guppy are about... it will be difficult to lose a lot of money in the market.

Remeber though, behind all the squiqqly lines is a lot of cumulative XP points between the ears, don't forget that...

Maybe that should be your start then.

Edit: When I started to take trading more seriously I delved into charting, wrote some spiffy Metastock Skannerz once, just for total disclosure...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: May 15 2009, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

It basically depends on how you are going to approach your trading...

If you are going to exploit leverage you need to committ totally to the market, need to have a lifestyle to accomodate that. Leverage will mean markets are in your thoughts most the time, even when you say they are not.

You will need to be prepared for that. Perhaps if you are very wealthy and want to play the markets cos you can, this may not apply so much... please remember there are plenty of fat cats around who sound like market sharks but in reality made their moolah elsewhere and now subsidise people like myself in the stockmarket.

If you intend to use no leverage... though markets will initially still draw you in pretty hard, it is much easier to live a normal life around trading.

Neither is wrong or right... just what you want really, and can commit too...

For what it is worth I have never really used a lot of leverage, maybe <10% all my trading, and I only had few k and a 3k car to my name in life when I started...

Probably one of the first things to get a handle on is charting, as one does not need a lot of market experience to get a foot in this way, but don't get drawn into the charts too much, they are just a tool remember !!

PS. please go and research exactly what a segregated trust account is and the implication re: secured/unsecured creditors...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: May 3 2009, 05:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Hey EB,

What do you make of some of those FX crosses spreads on the close Fri night?

Just getting prepared for the week ahead and I see CMC is showing some funny jumps on their FX charts.

USD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GOLD chart even... not all in the "same" direction either.

You think software glitch, or legit? Maybe some bookkeeping, option expiry, something like that?

Cheers.


IMO traders been dribbling back money last few weeks after some sweet gains as market playing chicken now on direction. Watch the "stress test" result thurs as they lead into NFP Fri for a possible range breaker.

Be prepared for the probability of an "early" pre-event move as implications of stress test results (which basically comes down to how much moolah is gonna have to be siphoned of the pilgrims) leak into the market.

Play a good game folks.
  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Apr 26 2009, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

I would not touch the ones with Airliners in them.

Too much inherent risk for what you want... a decent first experience in the market.

Comes down to two then, pick the one that ties in with your own feeling of where things will be 4-5 years here in Australia.... see how you go...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Feb 4 2009, 10:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In that case I will wear my grey hair as a badge of honour EB.

Trading is very tough atm.

On a few occasions recently I have bought into a stock when I just know it is going to have a little run, not very often you get that feeling, the one where you just know you are going to make money... except this time I have got it wrong and taken some medicine...

Bad trades are no big deal, just part of it all really, but it stings (me anyway) when those really sweet (rare) setups turn sour. Sobering.... Shows the importance of strong risk management atm...

But in a masochist kind of way I am curious at how I will judge myself a few years down the road, when I look through my trading spreadsheet of FY 08/09...

I hope I mark myself well.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Feb 4 2009, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE
Any market direction thoughts?


I really don't know.

I suspect the long side is capped by the possibility of a blow out the NFP, which would flush the toilet so to speak...

The short side has a technical floor under it called DJI 8000....

Our market had to dance out of tune last few sessions because of the severity of the news events locally (Sir-spendalot-Rudd, CBA results, BHP outlook, RBA meeting etc...)

Which of course has little significance on a global scale...

The issue by local banks of Samurai Bonds in Japan earlier in the week was heartening, as is the Baltic Dry Index in recent sessions, and LIBOR rates playing the game....

But I honestly don't know, I have a game plan for the more likely scenarios.... though I have taken on a few quality GOLD juniors of late, they are relatively easy to hedge in the US session Friday night.... which I hate doing.... wasting my quality sleep time having to keep on eye on US markets... them the breaks...

The one scenario I will find difficult to trade is if we whip out of the range for a moment only to lock back down for several more weeks.... tough to handle that one... in that case be happy just to protect cash, scalp and news trade I guess...

I note that I got my very first grey hair this year, a few strays on the right side above the ear, I am hoping for silver streaks but the fact the left side is still Greyless is a concern...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Feb 4 2009, 01:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

I am not sure where K1 is or his view...

Basically the market is positioning (and has been since mid last week) for the NFP's on Friday night...

As distasteful as it may sound the best result for global markets imo is an absolute shocker... closer to 1M job losses then 500k.... this would force a direction... one way or the other....

NFP's are a lagging statistic so it is a possibility...

Attached an interesting little chart below for some historical perpspective.

BTW... this market is very difficult, but still tradeable, imo.... a real test skill if nothing else..
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Feb 2 2009, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Understand this...

remember Opes Prime?

Well with the global skramble for cash... (Think musical chairs where the chairs are the money and the children running around are the banks)... IGR has been forced sold like many, many others... just like Opes Prime but on a much larger scale...

With the overhead cleared frustrated holders should now be rewarded for being long GOLD...

Look at TRY, look at the volume though Friday arvo... the forced sellers cleared as gold run shaped up... now handbrakes off and 10% gap up...

Many, many stories like this on the ASX...

Know the rules and you will play a good game.
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jan 14 2009, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (thejackal @ Wednesday 14/01/09 04:55pm)


Very nice price action that last 90 min, got me in.... nice wave down after the first red cordial rush as a bonus for another bite...

Yes, EWC also shaping nicely for an explosive move, added there... will add again on break...

Naked daily below, almost as pretty as BRM chart me thinks...


hypocrite.gif


Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jan 14 2009, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: arty on Wednesday 14/01/09 11:49am


Can't argue with that reasoning and strategy.

I would only add that it is possible to shift the profit/loss expectations further in ones favour by filtering the T/A setups with a strong understanding of the fundamental currents of a particular setup.

For all I know you may be doing this to some degree already.

btw... I am a big fan of T/A... maybe the most powerful tool in the toolbox ?!?

Ekman... banks do not need much of an excuse for a cash grab atm.... if they can get away with it.

Sign of the times I guess.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jan 14 2009, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: neutron on Saturday 13/12/08 08:30pm


IDL in Trading Halt due to contract loss....

QUOTE
Over the years I have seen on several occasions (even during the recent boom) T/A based traders buy into a pretty picture only to get caught in a very ugly Trading Halt...


The probabilities of....

QUOTE
going into suspension because of nervous lenders wanting to call in a loan?!?


has now significantly increased.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Dec 27 2008, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: salts on Saturday 27/12/08 01:10pm


You need to give more info or answers will only be matter of opinion...

ie.

How many trades do you make a Qtr ?

Your ratio of Intra:EOD trades?

Do you already have access to a level of market info that suits your needs?


IMO the functionality and perfomance of current online brokers is pretty dissapointing considering it is 2008... not much progress at all really.

There is very much a market for an online broker, with a cutting edge, integrated trading platform... and a competitive and flexible pricing matrix.

Mind you if you get one up and running commsec will only buy you out in the end, part of the problem I guess.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Dec 13 2008, 07:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (arty @ Saturday 13/12/08 08:01pm)


Hi arty,

you misunderstand my use of the word rats, they are not rats because they are net sellers... but rats because they are the Investment Banks/Broking Houses from the USA very much at the heart of the rot.... the rot that is de-valueing all asset classes in many developed countries outside their own.

Nevertheless you bring up an interesting point...

IDL looks very interesting technically, imo very much shaping for a good move, as you say.

Here-in lies the flaw in T/A as a stand alone tool...

If the move up in IDL plays out over the next few days, it will co-incide with a sharp move in many other resource sector stocks.

Over the years I have seen on several occasions (even during the recent boom) T/A based traders buy into a pretty picture only to get caught in a very ugly Trading Halt...

It only takes one such a cock-up to undo much good work, in 1000's of trades over many years this has not happened to me (touch wood). Just running the real-time scans and buying the pretty pictures would be much easier and much less time consuming !!

Trading is a game of probabilities, you must put the odds in your favour as best you can...

Why on earth take the IDL trade when you will get a similar move out of a stock that has near 0% chance of going into suspension because of nervous lenders wanting to call in a loan?!?

That is what makes a complete trader. I love my TA... but the market is filled with landmines, very much so right now, and the charts are not showing them up as much as usual due to the mass liquidation occuring in global markets.

You should get a nice trade out of IDL, I will get it too, just not through heavily geared companies like this one.

Each to their own.
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Dec 13 2008, 05:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (rexi98 @ Saturday 13/12/08 06:13pm)


Hi rexi,

You are right, the rats (JP, Citi and GS) are the main sellers the last month or so.

Understand the game...

Forget Revenues/Earnings/PE/divvies etc... the one fundamental in town atm is debt, particularly debt gearing.

I am not going to re-check the net debt gearing ratio for IDL, so I apologise if any information is shonky.

But when I did check it was bloody high.

Of course the absolute gearing only tells part of the story... maturity dates, covenants against pre-defined events and basically anything else engineered into a bond/debt facility that will allow a lender to liquidate.... can bring a company to its knees atm.

I do not take a trade atm without checking the above thoroughly, pain in the bum and time consuming but that is how things are atm.

Having said that, IDL could jump 100%+ in the space of days, but there are other stocks who would perform similar in such an event without the debt bogey.

Hope that helps.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Dec 11 2008, 10:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: flower on Thursday 11/12/08 10:30pm


CVN looks good atm.

The quality oilers will be rewarded the most on the bounce.

STO, NDO, NXS trying to rise from the ashes too...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Dec 1 2008, 11:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (db76 @ Monday 01/12/08 11:51pm)


It will be very interesting to look back in a few years to see how many good Australian companies drowned with the rats.

It will be even more interesting to see how many of the rats never really drowned after all.

If one must vent anger at what is happening to our economy, it would be more correct to direct it at the financial institutions responsible, or maybe more aptly the regulatory bodies that govern those institutions.

It may seem futile, but as an individual we can control some things... we can choose to avoid dealing with companies associated with financial institutions associated with the USA. Much like we do now with companies from other financially unstable parts of the world in Africa and South America.

For example, the buy now pay later thankyou very much mr. harvey norman game... uh no thanks, you can keep your GE loans thanks all the same...

Got a Citibank card? Maybe time to exchange it for some Aussie plastic.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (flower @ Thursday 20/11/08 03:21pm)


QUOTE
It is the opposite condition of a normal, or contango, market, where the longer dated months trade at a higher price than the nearbys, reflecting the costs of carrying or holding a commodity over time.
.

Furthermore....

When you hear financial types talking about a futures contract fair value, the bold bit of the quote above is what they mean....

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Nov 13 2008, 10:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (arty @ Thursday 13/11/08 10:30pm)


The changing dynamics that arty speaks of can be applied to the entire market imo

The market is merely an expression of ourselves after all.

The rate we are evolving is accelerating.

Hence so does the market.

This is actually very useful to remember when trend trading or making probability decisions based on historical data.

I guess this is a reason the log function is genuinly useful in charting.

Some years ago I felt Yogi-in-oz was onto something with his Price/Time. However I feel his chosen path of interpreting these variables is misguided.... to be polite (IMHO, each to their own).

arty seems to be a much more interesting cat imo,

I remember the first shares I ever bought... Alinta Gas IPO... looks like at some point in the future I get to do that again !! How is that for overclocking !!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Nov 10 2008, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: arty on Monday 10/11/08 08:54pm


QUOTE
The Market moves without pity, joy, or any other emotion.

Every move it makes can be seen as a threat to my wellbeing, or as an opportunity to improve my position.

Rather than dreading the next catastrophe, I prefer looking forward to another stimulating day, doing something I really enjoy.



I like your work arty, here at SS too.

I wonder what Carl would think of 2008, I imagine it would be frustration that the greed of men again stalls the climate debate, though perhaps there might be a hint of joy too... as new countries join the voyage of a species evolving beyoind its planet of origin.

smile.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 29 2008, 03:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Gee, what a day.

In some ways revealing.... (i) not a lot of trust around, (ii) the exposure of our economy to global growth and (iii) the weighting our stocks had in the global hedge fund candybag.

I would not be suprised if over the next few years many developed economies will turn inward as the scars heal, I think the chaos in FX markets the last few weeks hints at this as countries are revalued.

This would be a major blow for the world trade (growth) platform we had been progressing.

Ultimately Australia's in-situ raw material reserves, social security and political stability will provide a floor for our relative wealth. Swan has a tough job in front of him to keep the status quo.

I had not expected another commodity boom like what we were in for many decades, I suspect now we will see one sooner then that, small consolation for those who have had their net worth decimated in the interim.

Over the next 18 months watch for the culling/re-incarantion of the mining stock pool and the subsequent new listings, with clean registers, that will take their place. This will point to future growth sectors imo...

As far as the average Joe and the economy.... It goes like this.... Don't give a rat's arse until the paycheck stops, then watch out!

For now we have the insane volatility for the masochists blink.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Oct 28 2008, 11:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


We had a taste of the current price action a few months ago courtesy of Opes Prime and co.

Only now on a larger scale, same feel to it though.

If the top 20 of your stock is littered with old school financial nominees... no immunity for you.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Oct 27 2008, 06:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: jr007 on Monday 27/10/08 06:45pm


Hang Seng absolutely smashed.

Nikkei futures now down to ~ 1982 levels !!

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 24 2008, 10:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (early birds @ Friday 24/10/08 11:32pm)


QUOTE
my heart is pumping neutron, don't know why i'm geting so pumped up!!


Your are not alone my friend.

I will be so arrogant to assume that 1000's of traders all around the world are watching tonight unfold, the adrenalin glands active... endorphins flowing....

Not everyday one gets to watch history.

Good trading.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 24 2008, 10:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (early birds @ Friday 24/10/08 11:15pm)



Balls of Steel EB...

Make that Stainless Steel !!


  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 24 2008, 08:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: flower on Friday 24/10/08 09:45pm


My style to trading is very much trying to "read" the market.

This is a not an easy market to be tuned too.

I stand by my post, I do not type my words lightly.

It is actually very logical if you think about it.

Did I pre-empt it and make a killing?

Nope sad.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Oct 24 2008, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (flower @ Friday 24/10/08 09:05pm)


Flower,

I understand this is an insane time in the financial world.

But your recent frustration at the USD strength is not warranted imo...

I explained it to you in the CVN thread.

All the fudamental logic, economic analysis etc... does not hold when primal instincts take hold as they have now.

The USD is king right now because of what backs it imo.

The no. 1 military machine on the planet.

It is very sad when it comes to that, but when countries are facing default the rules are very much simplified.

When the fear recedes sophistication will prevail and the USD will pull back.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Oct 23 2008, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (flower @ Wednesday 22/10/08 04:14pm)

Hi Flower,

QUOTE
"The USD is being manipulated upwards to prevent total collapse of the existing financial system"


There may have been some manipulation in the start of the commodity plunge.....

But the sad truth is that when the financial world is in such a state that countries are on the edge of default, the strongest tangible asset that can back a currency is its military might IMO...

Think about it, what good is your gold if some-one has a bigger gun then you?

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 16 2008, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (Danville @ Thursday 16/10/08 10:18am)


QUOTE
EB, I remember 6-12 months ago, the winner of the CNBC share trading competition was being interviewed along with a top wall street guy. The winner was your average Joe, blue collar type. He said BHP was going to $25. The Wall St. guy literally laughed in his face and said "If BHP goes to $25, then I'm out of business" Well, guess what?? Here we come.


It is funny you mention that, I think of that CNBC segment everytime I look at a BHP chart lately.

It was the chap from one of the Australian Warrant desks who said that, his words were he would be washing Dash's (the winner) Maserati if Dash's H&S pattern played out and BHP hit $25...

The same chap has been pumping the commodities bull every week on CNBC... Monday morning he was on and looked rather unwell. I mean that seriously, he looked pale and withdrawn.

I guess you can't blame those in the market game trying to maintain respect by not being honest re: recent trading/investing results. There is a lot of $$ pain going on and one should be very wary of anyone claiming financial gains of late, IMO...


BTW...

I have just been checking through CMC's new charting software on their MM software that you guys use,,, very, very impressive so far.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 10 2008, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: shasta on Friday 10/10/08 08:57pm


I would like a copy shasta, cheers.

stardust.619@hotmail.com


  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 9 2008, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


GOLD.ASX intra-Monthy below....


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  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 8 2008, 03:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: cooma on Wednesday 08/10/08 03:59pm


Cooma,

As long as your are 100% sure CMC only use ANZ for their Australian clients segregated trust accounts, then your funds should indeed be as safe as the ANZ.

That is my interpretation of their PDS anyway.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 8 2008, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (cooma @ Wednesday 08/10/08 11:22am)

Hi Cooma,

Well done on your GOLD.ASX holding.

FYI re: CMC...

This is from their PDS.....


QUOTE
5.7 Warning about segregated trust accounts

It is important to note that CMC Markets holding your moneys in one or more segregated trust accounts as described in section 6.9 may not afford you absolute protection.

The purpose of segregated trust accounts is to segregate our clients’ moneys, including your moneys, from our own funds. However, individual client’s moneys are co-mingled into one or more segregated trust accounts.

Segregated trust accounts may not insulate your moneys from a default in the segregated trust accounts.

However, it is CMC Markets’ policy to top-up a segregated trust account from CMC Markets’ own funds where there is a deficit in that account due to the default of a client.

Should there be a deficit in the segregated trust accounts and in the unlikely event CMC Markets becomes insolvent before it topped-up the segregated trust account in deficit, you will be an unsecured creditor in relation to the balance of the moneys owing to you.

In the event that you become an unsecured creditor of CMC Markets, you will need to lodge a proof of debt with the liquidator for the amount of moneys that are owing to you as evidenced by your Account statements.

The liquidator then assesses all proofs of debt to determine which creditors are able to share in the assets of the company, and to what extent, depending on the amounts owing to them and any priority they may have to be
paid.


  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 8 2008, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: flower on Wednesday 08/10/08 10:54am


You are not expected to understand when I made no effort to explain myself.

I tend to do that because I think mostly I am too lazy (selfish) to put what is in head on (virtual) paper.

Usually I would have taken GOLD positions through CFD's, however in the current climate I have to expect that one morning I wake up and my CFD provider no longer exists and I am an unsecured creditor.

So a few months ago I removed virtually all funds from my CFD accounts.

GOLD.ASX provided the best clean exposure to both Gold and the collapse of commodity currencies.

It is not the kind of trade I look at to make a killing, more to implement the strategies one nuts out over the years and to hedge myself to stay in the game.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 8 2008, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Flower

QUOTE
Neutron--As best as I can see from your chart GOLD weekly rose about 21% during September whilst LGL rose 60% during the same approximate period, ie the gearing in LGL's favour was nearly 300%.


That is not what I meant, I am ok at maths.

mgbutler expressed frustration at the current hit/miss performance of gold stocks based on analysis dated to Feb '08.

Things have changed a bit since then - IMHO.

But if you guys want to hedge your wealth via companies in the gold sector that are subject to many of the currents that face all listed companies irrespective of their sector to get the leverage...

Go for it, roll the dice...... each to their own.

FYI... looking at my gold watchlist right now in real-time.. about 50% up, 50% down...
  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 6 2008, 11:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: mgbutler on Monday 06/10/08 11:48pm

QUOTE
Get my drift. The tide will turn at some point.


I don't get that thinking, I am sorry but I really don't.

Each to their own I guess.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 6 2008, 10:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: mgbutler on Monday 06/10/08 09:04pm


QUOTE
c$40+ move in gold prices (AUD terms). Now sitting at AUD 1122 (near it's all time high). But in this irrational market - this will just equate to gold stock selling!


Then take the gold stocks out of the equation and go for pure exposure.

http://www.goldbullion.com.au/au/index.php?noMsg=true

Weekly Below...


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  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 3 2008, 11:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: BSA on Friday 03/10/08 12:03pm


Probably doesn't matter.

Recent events looked like a mad scramble for cash for a select few.

Any more $$ they can pull from her would be a bonus.


Remember this folks.... once an African resource is developed it can no longer be used to milk $$ on foreign stock exchanges.

Know the rules and trade accordingly.

All the best.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 3 2008, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (pilots @ Friday 03/10/08 10:39am)


smile.gif

MS always makes me think of a character from Lord of the Rings.

Should I give a clue?

Nah..
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 3 2008, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


I cut and pasted my response to a HC thread titled "CVI Excuses Handbook"

It about a month old.

It didn't get much response there oddly enough, maybe it will get a smile here on another dark day on the ASX.

QUOTE
below is my light-hearted nonsical attempt...

I am pleased to announce a significant development in regards to Cityviews refinery and oil leases.

A team of Petro-chemical engineers secured by Cityview (whom I am pleased to a announce have accepted Cityview shares as payment for services rendered) have made an exciting discovery.

It turns out that samples of residual oil taken from our pending off-shore oil leases have shown to have a rather remarkable chemistry.

Obviously Cityview has to be very careful of what details it can provide as the eyes of the global oil majors are upon us.

Let me say that it appears that with some minor modifications to our refinery we will be able to produce an end product that is of much higher value then light sweet crude.

Our oil can be sold as a medical product that would be a synthetic replacement for the much sought after reptilian oil extract used in many far Easter countries.

This exciting new turn of events will mean some slight delays as Cityviews make the neccesary patent application to protect our IP.

Cityview is also in negotiations to bundle our snake oil with another exciting product produced by an ASX listed company.

Details are confidential at this stage but I can say it starts with R.. and ends with ...opren.


  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 30 2008, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: neutron on Tuesday 30/09/08 10:47am


It is open normal time!

Very sorry, had two indepedent nwse services confirm delay....

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Sep 30 2008, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: early birds on Tuesday 30/09/08 09:41am


ASX not opening this morning.

Maybe half hour delay, maybe hour.

Worked for the Russians I guess....



  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Sep 23 2008, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (Danville @ Tuesday 23/09/08 09:56am)


QUOTE
DOn't worry, Leppard. By the end of this 30 day period, if not long before, it will be blatantly obvious that shorts are not the problem.


Perhaps the ASIC might ban stock selling.

That way market participants can only buy stocks and hence the market must go up!

Maybe allow selling for one day a month, but not for everyone at the same time obviously...

So maybe ASIC can allocate the monthly selling vouchers depending on ones house number ?!?

What the heck, Rudd can maybe staple a food voucher to the selling voucher as gesture of good faith!


Anyway, just go with the flow Dan... we know it is not a level playing field, see it as a test, that is how I view it all... bit of a steeple chase thrown in the marathon...

The worst thing they can do is take the market away from us completely, even that not the end of the world, just an opportunity to try our hand at something else.

Maybe the Pro Poker Tour.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 22 2008, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: blueice on Monday 22/09/08 11:19am


Looks like banks etc.. have been squeeling they can't make market in some of their derivatives.

So here come the exemptions...

lol...

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Sep 22 2008, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: blueice on Monday 22/09/08 11:01am


ASX open delayed 30 mins pending ASIC announcement...

Coffee time...

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Sep 16 2008, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: PeterH on Tuesday 16/09/08 05:21pm


Hi Peter,

That is a great reply, so I will supress the rebuttal gene...

Yes, there is a good reason stocks like MST, RRS, SLA, CVI, INL are so popular on stock forums and attract such colourful characters.

All the ingredients that would attract us to a good movie or book are usually there.

Over the years it has been an interesting excursion in trading psychology observing these type of stories play out.

Yes it is exciting looking for the next big thing, especially when you get onto a sector early, real early.... then for cream you pick the darling in your sector spread.

Tough times atm, but exciting at the same time you know.

All the best.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 16 2008, 02:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: PeterH on Tuesday 16/09/08 03:08pm


QUOTE
The things I said in my post on the same subject in January remain relevant.



ditto....

here is my January post....


QUOTE
Though I don't mean to lay the boot into PeterH as he seems like a good guy and I respect his transparency.... but there are a handfull of stocks on this forum that are in such sustained, clean downtrends... yet still draw so much SS interest.

INL is a classic. I follow that thread to remind me of how not to play the game.

So far this year is setting up for The Return Of The Daytrader... for now at least, reminds me so much of when I started this caper ~ 2001

Take care.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 10 2008, 08:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: neutron on Friday 05/09/08 12:13am

QUOTE
Thanks EB.

Helps when we are on same wavelength.

Might be worth watching the TSX next few days, important inflection point imo... could shed some light on the path for the ASX.

Good trading.


And show the way she did.

The TSX and Shanghai were both DOWN in reaction to the Fannie and Freddy bailout, no 4% pops there.

I wonder which mining project will be getting the can in oz today?

Lots of noise on whats going to happen every-which-way you look, KISS and you have (maybe) half a chance.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 5 2008, 12:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


That is a pretty decent red candle so far for the ASX200, to be sure to be sure...

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Sep 4 2008, 11:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: early birds on Wednesday 03/09/08 11:53pm


Thanks EB.

Helps when we are on same wavelength.

Might be worth watching the TSX next few days, important inflection point imo... could shed some light on the path for the ASX.

Good trading.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Sep 4 2008, 03:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: NightStalker on Thursday 04/09/08 04:12pm


Yes NS it is not a level playing field.

I think you will find it has always been that way.

You have always come across as some-one who was fairly market savy, hence I can't really understand why something you already knew has upset you so much.

It can be a dirty game, it is not for everyone.

But in a bear market stocks do go down, for whatever reason, and they do over-shoot, for whatever reason.

It would be nice to have a bear market where all the stocks we happened to hold didn't fall.

But is that not an oxy-moron?

I understand your pain but letting the market get in your head like this will not help your bottom line, IMHO only...




  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 3 2008, 10:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: kahuna1 on Wednesday 03/09/08 09:30am


QUOTE
Yesterday our own RBA in their wisdom only cut 0.25% and the comments were not what I was expecting to be honest. They were more bearish on things not pointing to another immediate cut in rates but a wait and see approach.


My short-hand take on that one...

Stevens has made a clear addition to the RBA toolkit ---> transparency.

It has proven to be a market mover, savy traders exploiting it for profit.

Stevens I suspect has been taken aback by its power...

No to mention pre-emptive rhetoric reduces flexibility by "locking in" a sentiment.

Hence the wishy washy comments.

He has (bravely) chosen a powerful weapon that will take time and skill to master - imho....

Sorry about the cryptic short-hand if no-one understands, I understand what I mean anyway. :-)




  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Aug 12 2008, 09:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: NightStalker on Tuesday 12/08/08 07:22am


Yes, yes... the evil shorters, Bernanke agrees.

Could be truth in that article.

Understand options though. Understand the counterintuitive... buying to make a loss.

If you were exposed to $100M's Bear Stearns long, $1.7M insurance policy not that a big a number I guess, especially if whispers of Bear's pending doom existed in the purple circle.

So maybe inside trading the culprit.

Lots of theories anyway.

Probably best not to get too caught up in the evil shorter hype, it is a bear market.

I'd be scratching my head more if XJO trading above 6k in current environment, no?

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jul 1 2008, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: fingermark on Saturday 28/06/08 11:35am


I have nothing but admiration and respect for Jim Richards.

I should think shareholders on the HMS POZ will sleep well at night knowing who their captain is.

I hope the market marks the IPO debut today accordingly.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jun 5 2008, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (neutron @ Wednesday 23/04/08 04:53pm)


"....sometimes I see a blue spot in the sky, a human being that was given to fly..." [Eddie Veder, 1998]


QUOTE
I understand that and you are right.

I honestly didn't do much background on Utopia beyond quick glances, it may well surprise me on the upside, honestly can't comment.

I usually have a pretty good idea about what makes a stock go up though.

Thought the SPP was an opportunity to get some low risk KN-1 exposure with the carrot being a possible free carry into Wisteria - which I expect to be a duster.

But doesn't mean money can't be made if the drill bit hits or misses....

I was in the market on the morning of the SPP allocation and got fills at 3.3/3.4/3.5.... I would have got 3.1 as I was top of the queue but....

I can go from holding a couple of oilers to a dozen or so pretty quickly which makes my research a little tardy sometimes.


  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 19 2008, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: arty on Sunday 18/05/08 12:30pm


Monthly chart gives more powerful perspective perhaps.....


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 16 2008, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (macrae @ Friday 16/05/08 01:01pm)


Got a decent holding sub 18c end April, see how they go...

but anyways...

If you get some time this weekend monkey man have a look at CAU over a nice red.

Real dog, nearly went belly up before last cap raising bought some time...

But some very interesting corporate activity lately, some of it a little shonky for sure...

Will make you grin I reckon even if you don't have a play.

smile.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 8 2008, 10:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 08/05/08 11:56am


sad.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 8 2008, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 08/05/08 11:27am


I know that Wolv, they would have to be nuts not to.

Westnet has been a fantastic example that the basic business principles of first class customer service and a quality product can succeed in the 21st cnetury.

But I have 81 Million reasons to think that the Wesnet brand will die a slow death.

IIN now receive my $$, they will make the decisions... no matter what they call different parts of their business.

IIN are a public company, they have shareholders to please, half yearly time-frames to work to.... and the customers WILL suffer.

RIP Westnet.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 8 2008, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Not much gets me fired up, but.........

This is now the 5th time in 10 years a contract I have been in has been bought out.

....once again by a company I would not want anything to do with IF I had a choice.

Legally nothing I can do (AGAIN).

Disgusted.

RIP Westnet, you had such a fine, fine business, best ISP in oz imo. RIP....

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 2 2008, 03:24 PM


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Posts: 908


QUOTE (caitlyn @ Friday 02/05/08 02:42pm)


smoke and mirrors...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 2 2008, 12:07 PM


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Posts: 908


What a beautiful stock.

Weekly below, with a few hours to go.....


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 1 2008, 12:43 PM


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Looks like next leg up not too far away....

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 23 2008, 03:53 PM


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In reply to: Augustus on Wednesday 23/04/08 04:13pm


I understand that and you are right.

I honestly didn't do much background on Utopia beyond quick glances, it may well surprise me on the upside, honestly can't comment.

I usually have a pretty good idea about what makes a stock go up though.

Thought the SPP was an opportunity to get some low risk KN-1 exposure with the carrot being a possible free carry into Wisteria - which I expect to be a duster.

But doesn't mean money can't be made if the drill bit hits or misses....

I was in the market on the morning of the SPP allocation and got fills at 3.3/3.4/3.5.... I would have got 3.1 as I was top of the queue but....

I can go from holding a couple of oilers to a dozen or so pretty quickly which makes my research a little tardy sometimes.


  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 23 2008, 11:51 AM


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Can we do it?

(intra-) Daily below...


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 23 2008, 08:45 AM


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In reply to: garryg on Tuesday 22/04/08 11:59pm


Morning Garry,

See it pretty much the same.

My feeling is that because the KN-1 success (likely) came about during the fundraising and BUY has only a 5% interest.... the stock did not react as it otherwise may have.

Now we have a company in a stronger financial position, with likelihood of good news flow from Kiliwani in the near term.... and still stock available on-market around 3.5c courtesy of SPP and subsequent shortfall placement.

Like I said, good R/R at these levels with the option to move to free carried into the Wisteria Wildcat if KN-1 can flow nice and strong.

Not too sure about Utopia Augustus, did not do much DD here as I did not see it as a potential company maker for BUY.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 21 2008, 02:43 PM


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Posts: 908


KEY breaking away today in anticipation of KN-1 testing program in Tanzania....

BUY still floundering around 3.5c courtesy of stags from recent SPP which has filled the coffers nicely.

Probably best leverage into Wisteria 1 (AC/P 32) in a few months time too - which could see ~ 5c pre-spud not accounting for happens with KN-1 in the interim.

Don't know about new board but probably good R/R buying around these levels anyway...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 21 2008, 10:30 AM


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Posts: 908


QUOTE (skiddy @ Wednesday 02/04/08 10:16pm)


Bit of a scramble to get stock on market Friday arvo and again this morning.

Do punters suspect the embryo of a BMN/UMC type play here in the phosphate sector?

Time will tell....




  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 17 2008, 11:26 AM


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In reply to: King Baz on Thursday 17/04/08 12:14pm


Thanks little homie.

Old man only recently introduced me to Carl Sagan's Cosmos... What an inspiration that man was! Just received my boxed DVD set few weeks ago.

It is hard for me to call a chart technically when I know the underlying (fundamnetal) story well.

If I was to look at the wiggly line stone-cold dumb I would say we are building for a leg up given sector sentiment.



  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 17 2008, 11:06 AM


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In reply to: King Baz on Wednesday 16/04/08 11:39pm


QUOTE
Please consider this invitation for any competent TA-operators to post a chart.


My interpretation says speculative froth gone from the register KB.

So chart says to me........ get rid of the duster monkey courtesy of Cobra, throw in some good Puffin vibrations and let me join the junior oiler party by smashing through 20c....

Of course to reap all the (SP) rewards, need to have a toe in the water already and then build as boxes are ticked, that is the fun with oilers...

(intra-) Weekly below...


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 16 2008, 08:16 PM


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Thanks mate.

TDO probably bit clunky in her trading to be text book chart stuff, but a move up is a move up...

WS-3 should be a reasonably low risk drill with possibility of a decent gross oil column, fingers crossed...


and since you asked...

lot of $$ went after the oil juniors today, especially those pumping out lots of bopd's...

...and PPP fits the bill nicely.

(intra-) Weekly below...




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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 16 2008, 11:25 AM


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QUOTE (neutron @ Friday 11/04/08 12:49pm)


Trying to make one of those technical breaks I guess.

(intra-) Daily below...
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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 15 2008, 03:12 PM


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In reply to: macduffy on Tuesday 15/04/08 03:57pm


QUOTE

Apart from the fact that the USA's in a terrible mess and the Fed is doing a terrible job, I didn't get much out of this


Don't know how to answer that except to say he is about the only guru I go out of my way to listen too.

Even if I already know what he is going to say.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Apr 11 2008, 01:13 PM


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QUOTE (neutron @ Monday 06/03/06 09:24pm)


With the benefit of hindsight...

Interesting to re-read the thoughts of Buffet...

Scroll four posts down...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Apr 11 2008, 11:49 AM


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Posts: 908


QUOTE (marathon @ Thursday 10/04/08 01:02pm)



From their placement announcement few days ago...


"The West Triton jack-up rig is currently drilling its final well for Apache Energy prior to moving location for 3D Oil Limited in approximately 10 days time."

Interesting times ahead for TDO.

Strong Board.

Strong Register.

Solid market support both through this weeks placment (52c) and last weeks OP induced sell off (53c).

West Seahorse-3 (first cab of the rank) is an appraisal/development well followed the Wardie 1 wildcat - and as mentioned below, both drills (deviated) from same platofrm.

West Seahorse-1, drilled by Hudbay Oil Australia Limited in 1981, intersected three oil accumulations with a potential fourth accumulation untested...... West Seahorse-1 flowed 1800 stb/d of 48 API gravity crude through a 1/2" choke testing the uppermost zone....

But................... she is an oiler.

Good luck.
  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Apr 2 2008, 01:16 PM


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Posts: 908



News just out....

".............

MDS Financial Group Limited (ASX:MWS) (“the Company”) announces that an
agreement (“Agreement”) has been reached between Trader Dealer Pty Ltd
(Administrator Appointed) (“Trader Dealer”) and a subsidiary of the Company for
the acquisition of certain assets of Trader Dealer.
The Agreement provides for the acquisition of the current client base of Trader
Dealer and operating systems to enable the Company to continue the provision of
services to the current clients of Trader Dealer.
Existing clients of Trader Dealer will be contacted to facilitate the transfer and reactivation
of their accounts with the minimum of fuss and paperwork. Website
announcements will also be available on www.traderdealer.com.au.

............."
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Mar 31 2008, 05:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: AgentCooper on Monday 31/03/08 12:34pm


has the withering arm of Opes Prime pointed a bony finger at UMC?

sorrow for some, opportunity for others...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Mar 31 2008, 12:47 PM


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Posts: 908


Anyone know whether the withering arm of Opes Prime is infecting ROY?

Thanks in advance.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Mar 20 2008, 10:25 AM


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Posts: 908

QUOTE (bello @ Wednesday 19/03/08 04:08pm)


Interesting divergence from the commodity markets today.

Maybe time to put the seatbelts on?!?

Daily below....


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Mar 19 2008, 09:36 AM


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Had ourselves a little gap up on open to $1.20...

Sliding back a little atm ($1.165).....

Would it be too far fetched to presume that IF she cracks $1.20 at some stage next few days it could be a case of hang on to your seats boys ?!?

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Mar 15 2008, 12:38 PM


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Posts: 908

In reply to: kahuna1 on Saturday 15/03/08 11:11am


QUOTE
US CANNOT afford to pay real rates of interest. It has to ignore inflation because it is broke.


Looks that way...

Link below nearly two months old now but still interesting viewing...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBZ81hmZuNk&feature=related

Guess the Fed has little choice really when it comes to Inflation, Denial and some river in Egypt...

Thanks for your work K1, would love to see yourself and Jim Rogers chew the fat some day - that would be quite something indeed...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Mar 12 2008, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: marathon on Wednesday 12/03/08 09:53am

QUOTE
'Scrambling to ease the strain on the credit market, the Federal Reserve announced a $200 billion program on Tuesday that would allow financial institutions, including the nation’s major investment banks, to borrow ultra-safe Treasury money by using some of their riskiest investments as collateral.


Gee... the price action on our banks from the second the market opened yesterday would indicate the Fed is a real watertight ship, no leaks there.

Imagine if fund managers had to rely on skill and talent to make money atm...

ROTFLMAO.....

...and the good ol' ASX quizes poor old Bendigo Bank about the strange trading yesterday, talk about no idea.

ROTFLMFAO.....

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Mar 10 2008, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: AgentCooper on Friday 07/03/08 08:32pm


$1 taken out last week...

With news flow set to continue and BRM providing a glimpse into what UMC future could hold.... upward momentum may well continue this week.

Daily below...


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Mar 4 2008, 09:58 AM


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Posts: 908

In reply to: kandinsky1 on Friday 22/02/08 10:53am


QUOTE
Half yearly report out. Seems to be a turn around happening for 2008. Revenues moving in the right direction and NZ WOVM in July.


Balance sheets look pretty clean imo.

If margins and revenue momentum continue could indeed be a nice turn around in the making.

Not too liquid but there is some impatient buying occuring of late - doesn't look like retail traders to me.

Weekly below...



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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Feb 28 2008, 11:55 AM


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Posts: 908


Off screen buying pressure starting to push her to the top of the recent range on a soft market day.

$1 likely the magic number for another rally.

Daily below...




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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 06:14 PM


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QUOTE (early birds @ Thursday 31/01/08 06:52pm)

Hey there EB,

Yeah it is easy for me to criticise, I have been wondering the last week if I have would have had the balls not to give the money men their 75 basis point cut if I was in BB's shoes. Instead just cutting the 50 basis points he had (rightlfully imo) always intended last night (before SocGen had to unwind those future positions - duh).

I came to the conclusion that if I hadn't I would probably lose my job.

So what you say surpises me not in the least.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 05:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Having followed recent events with much interest - as I don't yet have the experience of a K1 to draw on historical comparisons....

I have come to the conclusion that Mr. B. Bernanke may well be the US stockmarkets no. 1 bitch.

It has been quite breathtaking to watch a man with such a deep understanding of monetary policy and its history in the USA... brought to his knees with such relative ease by Mr. Market.

I don't envy the position he has put himself and the Fed in, would not be surprised if there is a little prayer each night before bed time that goes something like.... "Please, please let inflation indeed be restrained".

However I am sure the minority with their fat bank accounts, and investment portfolios are slapping him on the back and feeding him cigars telling him what a wonderful job he is doing...

Interesting times...


  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jan 22 2008, 01:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: Yeti on Tuesday 22/01/08 02:20pm


Exactly Yeti!!

I worked out my low ball bids this morning and placed them with Commsec before the market opened...

Fully expecting the inevitable.

It hurts... but the pain was expected...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jan 22 2008, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (smee @ Tuesday 22/01/08 02:02pm)


QUOTE
Get real.


No. Get a real stockbroker and pay their fees and you can buy/sell today to your hearts content.

I have had plenty of scraps (on the phone - the softcock I am) with Commsec, E-trade, TD Waterhouse, Westpac, CMC etc.. the last 8 years. Cost me plenty of $$ too on these type of day.

But that is just the way it is if you want to pay FA for your trades.

I learnt to deal with it, always plenty of opportunities when systems functioning as they should.

Went for a nice swim this morning after speaking to Commsec (after a long wait) and being told to pretty much forget reliable platforms today.

Such is life (G'day Ben).

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jan 22 2008, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


If all the on-line brokers (who let us trade for next to nothing) behaved in an orderly reliable manner on a day such as today... today would not be today.

Think about that.

If you got up this morning, saw the carnage o/night, and had expected no problems with the major online brokers, the problem lies in your expectations.... imho only.

So if you want 100% reliability on these type of days, get a real stockbroker who you can talk to and is prepared to give you their mobile no, inc after market hours availibity.

Oh... and pay up to 5 times as much per trade.

Your choise.




  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jan 22 2008, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: neutron on Monday 21/01/08 01:33pm


QUOTE
might I suggest you have a big tub of vaseline handy.... just in case.


Well at least vaseline is cheap I guess.


  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jan 21 2008, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Saw the Shenangans Friday afternoon and confess to picking up a few... also saw the ramping on a few forums on the weekend... couldn't help but think it stunk of trader desperation in a market where many are thirsty...

Anyway, not complaining - I am a big boy... I know the rules, but if you don't, might I suggest you have a big tub of vaseline handy.... just in case.

And if you are reading this Mr. Friday afternoon churn... you only just bought back your own stock in time...

Have fun with it.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jan 10 2008, 06:06 PM


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Posts: 908

In reply to: chromedome on Thursday 10/01/08 05:18pm


Though I don't mean to lay the boot into PeterH as he seems like a good guy and I respect his transparency.... but there are a handfull of stocks on this forum that are in such sustained, clean downtrends... yet still draw so much SS interest.

INL is a classic. I follow that thread to remind me of how not to play the game.

So far this year is setting up for The Return Of The Daytrader... for now at least, reminds me so much of when I started this caper ~ 2001

Take care.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Dec 18 2007, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (Danville @ Tuesday 18/12/07 09:33am)


Hi Dan,

Well two of my online brokers just packed it in, not surprisining really.

We are seeing the BHP/RIO market prop being removed and our market is adjusting to a "natural" level as I have been alluding too last few days.

Though I understand it is painful for portfolios, IMHO this is such a relief.....the last few weeks with the americans fiddling with their "free" markets like capitalism has become a dirty word, and our market diverging from the Torronto markets due to BHP bid... has provided a very unhealthy market to trade...

We are now seeing the natural harmonics of the market unfold, and it is beautiful to watch, long live the free market!

...and the opportunites it presents.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Dec 18 2007, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: neutron on Monday 17/12/07 07:07pm


QUOTE
SPI just continues to plunge this evening, unrelentless.

Powerful stuff.


What a clean and pure move we are in atm...

Fascinating to watch...


  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Dec 17 2007, 07:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (neutron @ Monday 17/12/07 01:44pm)


QUOTE
A relief really, and good to see the floor placed under our market by BHP finally removed too...


Rug pulled out from underneath ASX might have been a better expression.

SPI just continues to plunge this evening, unrelentless.

Powerful stuff.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Dec 17 2007, 01:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: early birds on Monday 17/12/07 12:47pm


Hi EB, Friday's US data and subsequent USD strength, coupled with this mornings market action in Asia... does seem to suggest the Fed may well (finally) be out of bullets for now...

A relief really, and good to see the floor placed under our market by BHP finally removed too...

Keep up the interesting posts!

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Dec 15 2007, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: King Baz on Saturday 15/12/07 12:36pm


QUOTE
then they crash and burn on a single trade and disappear to where failed traders go


I often wondered about where it is that failed traders end up KB, Dante's Inferno? The Abyss?

Then one day I realised I was being too optimistic... the answer is they go back to work!

Have a good weekend homie.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Dec 15 2007, 12:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (Bloke59 @ Saturday 15/12/07 11:48am)


Like asking how many runs can you make in cricket?

Depends on how good are you - given current market conditions your stats would be pretty close to the mark I think.

You never really know, how many traders itching to tell you how they keep getting pasted last few weeks?

Yet many were keen to let everybody know how much money they were making only a few months ago...

So you never really know in terms of exact percentages.

Also remember those trading comps usually retsricted to ASX200 etc... - while many pro's will plunge on liquid spec runners atm due to plenty of powder on hand and limited opportunities.

Then there is Futures and Forex trading....

Hope that helps...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Dec 10 2007, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (greenbah @ Monday 10/12/07 02:21pm)


Yes, it was the ASX Governors who made the call to reverse the trades today.

ASX have their arses covered through the "..fair and orderly market..." clause.

However.... if you have what happened today documented you could in theory use it as a precedent if you find yourselves in the same situation, ie. you stuff up and move the market beyond a certain % range (assuming that is what happened).

I agree 100% stock should have been halted as buys/sells beyond 13:47 may have been influenced by the dump...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Dec 10 2007, 01:59 PM


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Posts: 908


Re: cancelled trades at 13:47 today....

ASX will release a letter after close of market to all brokers effected by this incident detailing what happened.

This would be useful information as it may well be something to fall back on some point in the future if one finds themselves in a like for like situation...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 24 2007, 07:52 PM


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Posts: 908


What would be the best proxy for the RMB ?

A couple of years ago analysts were touting the YEN as a proxy for the RMB but don't know how well that one has turned out.

Any ideas ?

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Oct 9 2007, 08:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (bigernie @ Tuesday 09/10/07 02:04pm)


Economic vitality numbers, broker analysis, technical market levels etc... are all well and fine...

But always listen to the market.

Listen to the market.

Always.

Many years ago a wily old investor on another forum (Stock Central/TNO) honed that into me.

Thanks fastoy.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Oct 8 2007, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: neutron on Monday 10/09/07 10:25am


QUOTE
Wonder if the good ol US of A will ever call their equivalent of a Royal Commission into the collation of key economic data like the NFP's.

I seriously doubt it..... ROFLMAO


Well what do you know, NFP's conveniently "adjusted" back to a nice solid number on Friday.

Maybe they can rename the NFP's the BCP's - Bernanke Cattle Prod.



  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 4 2007, 12:17 PM


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Posts: 908

In reply to: BSA on Wednesday 03/10/07 10:06pm


Yeah - thought there was a decent probability of that so stuck a chunk at 15c this am. Pulled it now though, doesn't look like its going to get hit today. Probably too obvious.

Weekly below with one day to go....


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 3 2007, 11:36 AM


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From annoucement and the BRR interview this am...

next "larger" project acquisition "...within the Niger Delta..."

Sounds pretty interesting to me.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 2 2007, 09:06 PM


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In reply to: early birds on Tuesday 02/10/07 08:43pm


You got my respect as well EB - you are no mug punter.....

Your observation a little while ago that the Hong Kong Index has become the THE global trendsetter and subsequently my no. 1 indicator was right on the money.

Good work.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 2 2007, 07:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (woteva @ Tuesday 02/10/07 06:29pm)


Thankyou for those thoughts on Volker.

Sometimes I think I like Costello for the same reason I liked Keating (though I was only a teenager at the time doing the only formal economics I have ever done - hi Mr. Flemming, shame you never acknowledged my talent homie).

I suspect Costello would be the most qualified and skilled at preparing our economy for the future but his cocky style (ala Keating) may prevent him from getting that chance.

As you can see I am not schooled on Volker, but suspect he was more a purist? As opposed to Greenspan and Bernanke who are prepared to lubricate financial markets when required, even against the grain of economic rationale?

I have really enjoyed reading your thoughts over the last few months woteva, there are undiscovered gems in both markets and forums it seems. You helped make me good coin recently by re-enforcing my own convictions. You were never psyched out, not even once.

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Oct 2 2007, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: wallave on Monday 01/10/07 04:27pm


Win some lose some.

Some perspective.... despite the large size the Flax/Juniper fields - getting the oil to flow at half decent rates has been a challenge...

Something to keep in mind anyway.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Oct 2 2007, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: BSA on Tuesday 02/10/07 10:21am


check out ur BKG....

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 28 2007, 10:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Hi BSA,

Yeah - I sold mine yesterday too.

Win some lose some.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 21 2007, 08:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


If uncle Spike catches a glimpse of the weekly chart, he may well bring his axe to the CUE party - a rendition of Led Zep's all time classic would be most welcome...


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 14 2007, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (neutron @ Tuesday 15/05/07 11:18am)


QUOTE
Everything still on track to double your money from the ~13c level over the next 6 months...


Not quiet 6 months but only a few ticks from 26c with an interesting TA setup developing.

Would be nice if CUE threw a party and uncle Spike rocked up... wink.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 13 2007, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (JPWWHITE @ Thursday 13/09/07 11:05am)


Nice fundamental post.

for me personally there is way too much risk in this stock to make it a fundamental investment.

I only saw/see it as an opportunity to make fast money. Each to their own.

But atm it is still just a busted ass spec like so many others.

QUOTE
In short the higher the valuation of the Matanda project, and/or the lower the share price, the more control of CVI will be ceded to Turnberry Resources in the course of this deal.


that is the game then isn't it...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 12 2007, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: caitlyn on Wednesday 12/09/07 09:25am


Your understanding of market psychology is impressive (as are your T/A skills).

For me personally, market psychology (and my own of course) is probably the most fascinating aspect of my trade.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 10 2007, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: caitlyn on Monday 10/09/07 10:10am


QUOTE
One factor to think about is the larger levels of DT's or online traders, compared to a few years back. Media hype about markets and everyone wants a slice.


Hi mate. Probably more significant is that she is being pumped hard on a few forums.

In my experience this often leads to trends that move in a "dirty" way.

Wonder if the good ol US of A will ever call their equivalent of a Royal Commission into the collation of key economic data like the NFP's.

I seriously doubt it..... ROFLMAO.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 5 2007, 10:36 AM


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Posts: 908

In reply to: BSA on Wednesday 05/09/07 09:53am


Had to chuckle when I saw you on this thread - don't miss much eh?

Will copy my one and only post on the CVI thread at HC exactly one month ago, give you some light reading between those techincal manuscripts....

QUOTE
For those interested in more juice on this story...

"Untapped: The Scramble for African's Oil" by John Ghazvinian gives an interesting insight - though waffle at times - into what is going on at ground level in Angola in Chpt 3.

"With offshore production of more than 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, Luanda has become a classic boom town." This quote pulled from the recent CEO address is supported by the authors recent visit there.

Of course, as also stated, Angola is offshore - CVI are looking at onshore permits so greenfields element here?

Anyway, Cameroon is where the action is for CVI atm - but an interesting angle on West African Oil for those who have the inclination.



  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Sep 4 2007, 11:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE
I really foresee a major move in oil over the next 4 months to $110pb and I think Au and Ag will get carried away with the tide


I feel very much the same way.

I have noticed your posts on the Cash is King... thread.

Their is a sense of calm and objectivity in your posts, well to me anyway.

I hope it doesn't offend to suggest you have seen a fair bit in your time !?

  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Aug 31 2007, 01:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Has held up well during recent chaos.

Subject of some recent rumour speculation...

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNe...825538420070828

Hopefully more substance to recent consolidation.



  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Aug 16 2007, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: Gameboy on Thursday 16/08/07 12:23pm


Yes GB - for the first time in a trading day and a half, bidders are coming into the market the last 10 mins - let's see if they can hold it above these strong support levels for a bounce setup...



  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Aug 16 2007, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908



SFE will stop trading all its products in 20mins - guess they called a timeout.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Aug 14 2007, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Hard to fault these boys on lack of imagination when it comes to overclocking credit...

QUOTE
We acted as Australian counsel to RAMS on the establishment of its US$4.5 billion extendible commercial paper program in the US capital markets. This was the first program of its type that....


QUOTE
The transaction involved an innovative securitisation structure where two securitisation conduits in the United Stated of America have been appointed to issue notes as agent for.....


QUOTE
The bond structure was complex and involved the issue of floating rate debt, interest-only securities and variable funding securities.....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Aug 13 2007, 01:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (BSA @ Monday 13/08/07 01:16pm)


Thanks BSA. I concur. Will be watching POG closely next few weeks for sign of an attempt on $700.

NEM could be one to watch for a break given the recent hedge book restructure and the current TA setup.

Also thankyou to yourself and a few others for all the feedback you provided on teh Mac Prime thread. Helped me decide whether the product was for me. Didn't really want to comment on the thread itself but have been following it for sure.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Aug 13 2007, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Yep - no real bounce yet, most of those in the green gapped up that way and now deciding direction.

CVI and ICP are still strong though - so yes there are always runners...

Anyways...


A technical question for both BSA and Zaitech since you are both strong in that area.

Price of Gold (USD) looks like it has worked itself into a possible inflection point that should break very soon - either way.

Given the current sentiment towards credit and subsequent spread problems with interest rates for inter-bank trading, one would think Gold is a logical winner.

Of course we know the way the market works these days, with hedge fund cowboys prepared to speculate on anything that moves - making anything fair game for profit taking, especially if books need to be balanced.

It is pretty obvious a move over $700 should see $1000 - but if it plays out, we will no doubt do some Xtreme whipsawing around that level, as TA breakout traders on margin or weak nerves are flushed (ala recent action in Oil price) as whe hit key reistsance.

So would be rather building a position in Gold futures (and maybe a few stocks) before that break so I only add to posiitons on the break.

Anyway, both of you must have had a sneak peak at Gold chart recently I suspect - what feeling did you get, if any to the likelihood of a break up/down?

Thanks.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jul 25 2007, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: BSA on Wednesday 25/07/07 12:17pm


Still holding BSA, yes thinking the same - nice to have a few fire when markets soft.

Daily below....


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jul 20 2007, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (kaleon @ Friday 20/07/07 11:19am)


Have been holding these since April.

Very interesting to see how the loyalty options unfold.

Management must be tempted to increase the strike price from the flagged 20c to increase their own coffers given where the stock is trading.

However to reneg on the prospectus would be a huge thumbs down to managements credibility.

We should know next few weeks.... Will be very interesting to see how the market reacts to such a heavily in-the-money options distribution. Will see a sell down come the X-date for sure but how much higher will it go first?

I do know demand for on-market stock is still strong, as it has been since it listed - very difficult to build a stake on the bid, new intraday ATH as I type...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jul 17 2007, 05:58 PM


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Posts: 908

QUOTE (kahuna1 @ Tuesday 17/07/07 05:05pm)


QUOTE
Yep agree HM is an interesting sector


I remember we discussed HM/Zircon sector briefly in the ILU thread last year...

'cos I am a lazy poster I will just cut and paste my post from then...

17/06/2006...

QUOTE
This is just from memory, so take it with a grain of salt...

But I am pretty sure Zirconium Is the main constituent of fuel rods used in nuclear power plants.

I don't know in what quantities relative to supply - so what material impact the rapid growth of nuclear power plants will have on Zircon demand I can't say.

But Zircon may well get a belated rub from the whole Uranium thing. Also makes smaller, more Zircon focused plays keeping an eye on. (I have had a watchlist comprised of Zircon plays for a while now - haven't really fired yet).

Hope that helps, just from memory here, no numbers to support this in any way (I don't hold ILU either).



Well since that time any investment here would have been pretty much dead money (relatively speaking) - so belated rub aint happened yet across the sector.

BMX debt riddled I agree, though recent debt consolidation through bonds an effort to address it, but she needs strong prices - not just resource expansion before the market comes back on side I expect.

AZC (not holding) I probably liked the most and though the trend is solid hasn't set the world on fire either. Might be one for you to have a look at (if you haven't already) - hope it is not a time waster for you...


Something from left field and sort of relevant in this thread is ARJ... I know you will laugh when you see the price, business model etc... but will be consolidated soon (interestingly 1 for 100?). Why make it so iliquid? Merger, Placement?

It will never attract any interest on forums etc.. because it will be way too thin, but it is an interesting long term play on the Commodity boom.

Especially for those who subscribe to the theory of a spike in soft commodities at the tail end of the commodity boom?

Won't go anywhere quickly but could be a safe hedgy kinda play for the investor. I have taken a small position last month to test my thinking out.

Do with it what you will....

smile.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jul 17 2007, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Below is a post from yours truly taken from this thread just over a year ago (June 2006)...

Just thought I would re-post it for all after the news from DIO today regarding their (U3O8) JV with CVRD.

Enjoy smile.gif ...........

QUOTE
BRAZILIAN iron ore giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce is looking at expanding its mining and exploration operations in Australia, which will increase its head-to-head competition with BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto....

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/bra...9964410584.html


  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Jul 15 2007, 09:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: macrae on Sunday 15/07/07 04:42pm


Weight loss tip for ya monkey man....

Last year (or year before, can't remember) I bought more of a particular stock (SRK) then I knew I really should - then got caught in a lengthy suspension about a month later due to a cock fight over some very juicy iron ore land in Peru.

Dropped at least 2 or 3kg's during that period - while still destroying a full pizza at least 3 times a week with plenty of Kilkenny's to wash 'em down.

Worked a treat wink.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

neutron
Posted on: Jun 27 2007, 10:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

Hi BSA,

Yeah, as old yogi would say... stars are aligning. From PA perspective I would like to see INP drift back for at least a few days... ~25c ?, then another solid rise on volume.

Remember that in around 4 weeks time news could flow that will be price sensitive.

Hope you brought your raincoat today, bit stormy.

AGX and HYO could be some pretty pictures for you - these are fast and nasty stocks for me so don't usually mention as could always end up playing pass the parcel.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jun 27 2007, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


...and Monthly CBOT wheat chart below


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  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Jun 27 2007, 06:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Continues to show signs of completing a major phase of consolidation - following the inactivity at Flax/Juniper and uncertainty in regards to funding/farmins last 18 months.

Le't see if she can continue to grind upwards - the tale of the drill bit is impervious to my analysis though wink.gif

Keep an eye on SSN too for signs of accumulation...

Daily INP below....
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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jun 5 2007, 11:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Thanks a lot for that information guys.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 10:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: nizar on Monday 04/06/07 09:55pm


A lot of people were surprised before the US played "who's got the biggest donk" after the Chinese trading tax.

Not many people were surpised after they had seen the tails global markets threw in response to the US markets challenge.

When the mob is no longer surpised then the market will change its rules.

That is how it goes, round and round and round...



  Forum: Macro Factors

neutron
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 09:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Beyond TA,FA, sentiment stuff....

Interesting questions for me...

Proxy to the Oil Sector?

Degree of dependence on global market tides?

Political/Election rubs?

Daily below...


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: BSA on Monday 04/06/07 01:03pm


No idea BSA, would be interested in your thoughts once/if you have had a play.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: mosaic1996 on Sunday 03/06/07 07:05pm


Thanks Mosaic,

But I am now confused again on shorting stock into administration. I kind of felt that it would be broker dependent. However BSA seems to think you lose the money.

I have never really found a concrete answer to this hypothetical...

I would really like to know the answer to this one as I feel that some point over the next 50 years or so (hopefully!) I will find myself in this situation.



  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jun 3 2007, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Have been with Commsec about 8 years now. Also have accounts with other brokers, including E-trade, Westpac, FPM and some CFD providers...

Been through a few in my in time including TD Waterhouse, Sanford...

Commsec has continued to improve and evolve with the proliferation of the net.

Been a rocky ride at times, but all in all they are the best online broker in Australia in my experience over the last decade.

Considering they charge as low as 20 bucks for a small trade, you really can't expect too much and they have given me a lot more.

Big thumbs up.

BTW... Pro Trader 1 is a very fine piece of code... Well done Paritech!!

Also, Trader Dealer would be the next broker I would go for, probably save me some good $$ on brokerage but whether I would get the quality service I do from Commsec is an unknown...

If you want to beat all the glitches and system bugs, forget discount brokers and go full service...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: Jun 3 2007, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (mme @ Sunday 03/06/07 01:00pm)


Did you get a chance to check out the tuggie doing some beach surfing?

The dog wasn't impressed though, too many bloody peeps loitering on his beach...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: Jun 3 2007, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

QUOTE (kennowaylass @ Sunday 03/06/07 12:11am)


Hi,

If you have been a long term holder then you will know the story.

It has taken about the time you have been holding to actually get to the stage why you probably bought in the first place?

Unfortunantly the cost of Time in this instance has meant dilution to INP stock.

I have no idea if anything will ever come of the Flax/Juniper fields. Getting the black gold out of the ground has been a challenge for sure.

I also don't know much T/A, or deep F/A or even would consider myself of an Oil Sector gun.

Do know a thing or two about exactly when stocks will go up and when stocks will go down, fortunantly, as that has turned out to be a rather handy skill...

It looks to me that the recent distribution of shares (due to placement and the other corporate events all written in the ASX announcments for all to see) is now finished.

The stock should climb in the expectation to the field activity commecncing soon - providing professional with a higher level to reduce their holdings/risk as crunch time for INP this time around approaches...

That is how the game is played professor Faulken....

However if you want to sell your stock then by all means, it may free up capital for a faster moving opportunity elsewhere and give those handy tax credits...

I started buying them last week, see how it plays out...

Good luck in whatever decision you take...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 31 2007, 07:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: anne on Thursday 31/05/07 06:53pm


QUOTE
My practising a new-found open-mindedness and a forgiving heart would still find GLX too much to endure - i'd like to start on something less painful.


You are funny.

After reading the GLX announcement and getting set I was wondering how exisiting/previous holders were thinking and if they were looking at this stock objectively or through painfull eyes. Then I read your post this morning and wondered whether GLX may have been the catalyst.

Yeah, well, macrae - he doesn't count as I am sure he is part machine/robot, like the cop from I, Robot or the Terminator or something...


Anyway back to the topic...

Something that I personally find very relevant to faulty/clever thinking is position size (relative to trading capital of course).

I can be a very different trader depending on how heavily exposed I am to a stock. I find I tend to suffer less from faulty thinking the smaller my position size.

As I am the same person with the same skill set irrespective of the size of the position it is very frustrating/annoying that position size can affect my psyche. It is one of the reasons I consider CFD's such a risky proposition as it is at the complete opposite end of the trading psyche then paper trading.

This is true for me of course, can't speak for other traders - and may well be a personal shortcoming. Investing is slightly different here, as by definition investment decisions do not require constant scrutiny...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: May 31 2007, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Finally some action nigh for this minnow oiler...

Flax 3, Flax 4 and the exploration well to test the Flax-Juniper bridge all to be drilled starting next few weeks.

The risks are relatively low in that they are appraisal drills so should hit some decent oil columns.

Of course the key to the INP Cooper Basin projects is getting the goods out of the ground. So... the Fracture Stimulation/Gas Injection program scheduled to start in a couple of months.

Given she is trading at ~ 25c and all fund raising completed, good risk reward entry from this level to take some money of the table in a few months when risk event news starts to filter through....

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 31 2007, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


QUOTE (anne @ Wednesday 30/05/07 08:09pm)


Good stuff anne.

QUOTE
but maintaining an out-dated prejudice against a stock can be a big opportunity cost.


Thinking of a recent real-time example of this for many could possibly be GLX? With a lot of forum folk being burnt through following in a "tipster" from another forum, it would be fascinating to know what is going through their mind the last few days purely from a market psychology perspective. ie. are they buying, selling, sitting out - based on xyz.. or abc...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

neutron
Posted on: May 31 2007, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: BSA on Thursday 31/05/07 09:46am


Thanks mate.

I have always wondered what would happen in such an instance.

It is ironic really, shorting a company into liquidation is theoratically the perfect call - yet in practise you blow your dough?!

Typical market logic I reckon, worth remembering though when playing the dark side...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 30 2007, 03:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Hi,

Does anyone know what happens to stock shorted over CMQ now the administrators have finally been called in ?

Is this a broker discretionary matter or is their a protocol for handling shorts over stock placed in admin ?

Thanks.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 16 2007, 07:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: Holdfast on Wednesday 16/05/07 07:03pm


Hi,

I am not much of a chartist I am afraid, but reckon she is looking pretty good atm.

Been buying a few myself the last two days...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 16 2007, 12:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: burratipi on Wednesday 16/05/07 12:45pm

Hi burra,

With the changes the ASX made last year in regards to broker codes, ie. hide them from level 2 market depth as well as level 1 - in order to promote liquidity and provide a level playing field - ROFLMAO....

Brokers now have to wait three days to get the details of which brokers were doing the buying/selling.

A Iress trading platform (not Web Iress!!) should give you this as well as a friendly full service broker.

Hope that helps...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 16 2007, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: caitlyn on Wednesday 16/05/07 11:29am


wink.gif


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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 15 2007, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


After building a nice little launching platform last few weeks, a buy for 250k just took out 3 price levels.

Could be interest due to the RC drilling of the shallow IP anomaly at Nam Yen perhaps? Too soon for the diamond drill there to have comenced you would think...

Daily below...

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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 15 2007, 11:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: anne on Tuesday 15/05/07 11:31am


In that case all is forgiven.

I do hope that the bounce in the oilers recently has substance, I know one shouldn't feel any fonder towards one particular market sector over another - but I do have a soft spot for the oilers.

Probably a physiological thing, testorone, endorphins, adrenalin and all that...

Actually read this cheesy oiler novel recently "The Boss" - kept thinking of that dodgy GLX all the time. Nice light read and would probably be a good introduction to the sector and its terminology to those not interest in hardcore technical docs...

NWE - looks good anne, only really consolidated for a week or so after doing that fill-the-gap-thing. A change in sector sentiment would be a nice tail wind for her.



  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 15 2007, 11:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: anne on Tuesday 15/05/07 11:16am


QUOTE
just look at cue- - cue broke out just before and its story isn't anything as exciting as nwe's story


Hey there now!

Picking on CUE like that - there is an unwritten code of etiquette that one must be nice to all stocks on share forums, irrespective of whether one is holding or not.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 15 2007, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: albion on Tuesday 15/05/07 11:06am


Yep - looks that nice bit of consolidation last month or so is done and we are taking the next step up.

One of the real strengths of CUE which has not been touched on here yet (I think) is that in light of any global market weakness, a stock like CUE should hold relatively well (IMO).

Everything still on track to double your money from the ~13c level over the next 6 months...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 13 2007, 10:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: AgentCooper on Sunday 13/05/07 10:21pm


Coop,

Looks legit to me, both in terms of content and cyber location. Their Qtrly is hyperlinked to the same page.

The web developer has clearly been given the release before being submitted to the ASX and has it all setup for a quick code fiddle once the release is official tomorrow. Could be seen as a bit tardy but as the stock is already in Halt no harm done.




  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 13 2007, 09:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: macrae on Sunday 13/05/07 09:24pm


Couldn't have hoped for more.

Probably test $1 on open.

Cheers...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 12 2007, 08:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: AgentCooper on Saturday 12/05/07 03:29pm


I am glad you are in UMC Coop.

I was umming and arring late last year whether to PM you and bring UMC to your attention, knowing your interest in ROY as stated here at SS, I decided against it as I am loathe to reco stock to anyone - even my closest friends and family. More often then not ends in tears.

My thinking behind the early entry into ROY was pretty much a case of play the man (Crabb) as nothing is more powerful then a board with clout to bring projects into ASX minnows.

It was with some dissapointment in Oct last year when UMC (or UKD back then) acquired those Iron Ore leases near MAC - as I had very much hoped that kind of deal would have happened for ROY (as I was already in).

Of course all I could do was buy UMC on market (which I have been doing from the day of the announcement @ 16.5c as documented on the UMC thread).

With time everything has developed nicely with ROY to acquire some very interesting U assets in the US very soon. (and though ROY's Iron Ore leases are interesting the reality is that the catalyst for the increased interest in the stock and options is as a direct consequence of the Lynx2 deal).

Anyway, as I said, well done on getting into UMC - you timed it beautifully, have a sneaky suspicion you have been eyeballing your charts again to get such a nice entry wink.gif

And well done for having steel (stainless?) balls for not being shaken out of ROY when many others would have...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UMC - maybe touch a $1 then a good pull back? You would think that some strong drill results would be required to really push this stock through the $1 mark? Also maybe those buying last few weeks need to be tested?

Hard to call - been a powerful, powerful run. I have met Jim Richards for what it is worth and though I am a cynical b*stard, he was a hard man not to respect. Helped to keep me in when the UMC holders were tested March this year.

Cheers.




  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 11 2007, 03:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: fingermark on Friday 11/05/07 03:22pm


Hi again,

I am Kurious from HC (the neutron nick was taken when I joined and was not intending to post there, was just curious...)

By robot I meant computer program doing the buying. In the on-line poker community these type of programs are called bots (short for robot).

I actually noticed by accident a few weeks when I was putting in low ball bids on ROYOA and a bid would jump over me right away - not time for a broker to amend.

Since then I kept a bit of an eye on market depth and saw a couple of other interesting trades (like the 11683 shares bought on ROY and ROYO at the same time today - happened earlier in the week too).

Also suspect a bit of churn to shake a few out, all that kind of thing...

Anyway, new intraday ATH as I type, she is looking great on a soft market day.





  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 11 2007, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: fingermark on Friday 11/05/07 03:03pm


Thanks fingermark.

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 11 2007, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


For whatever this is worth...

I am pretty sure there is a bot in the market buying ROY, ROYO and ROYOA...

There have been several specs in recent times where I have noticed this.

Very interesting, would not be outlandish to suggest overseas interest in little old ROY...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 11 2007, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


BOM holding up well today...

wink.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 11 2007, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Another showing relative strength today.

Sitting near intraday ATH as I type...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 11 2007, 11:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Bulls being tested today across the boards...

UMC up another 10% on good volume in the first 2 hours of trade.

If this isn't a relative strength indicator then I don't know what is...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 10 2007, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Hi JJP,

Difficult not to get a little excited about this news, this is exactly what I had been hoping for.

I cannot stress the significance of the Marra Mamba outcropping discovery at the "Jocelyn Prospect" enough.

I am quitely confident Fop is on the money with his assumption the body plunges down towards MAC - based on the known geology there.

My dreams of 100m+ high grade Iron Ore intersections (and now the significant bonus of bodies with low levels of impurities courtesy of Marra Mamba ore) are now closer to becoming a reality then ever.

As far as working out possible in-ground value of what UMC might be sitting on, don't want to go there just yet but your calculations are not ramping JJP, they are conservative if anything.

I trully believe that the UMC board did not realise how much iron ore their Pilbara leases may contain, I think that has changed now. I also suspect that if recent price action is anything to go by, quite a few others have their ears pricked.

Exciting times ahead for shareholders...



  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 9 2007, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: neutron on Friday 04/05/07 10:46pm


QUOTE
Some spike like behaviour would be very welcome as far as this little black duck is concerned...


smile.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 8 2007, 08:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


ABU has been bouncing between 16c-18c last month or so, compressing tighter all the time...

Yesterday she closed at the upper end of the range again so let's see whether she is ready to break.

F/A that could give her a nudge....

* Currently punching down some Diamond holes at their King Deposit (Erayinia JV).

* Assays for the RC King Deposit drill should be out anyday

* Quote from last month's MOU with the Chinese Liaoning Institute announcement... "Both partied have agreed to convert the MOU to a Corporate Partnership Agreement (CPA) by 15 June 2007"

* and maybe most interestingly, within that same announcement it was stated that part of the strategic aliance would include:

- the Liaoning Institute "Bringing new mineral opportunities to the partnership" and....
- "ABM acquiring new mineral projects"


Daily chart below...



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  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 4 2007, 10:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Lot of interest on the close today, looks like a fantastic setup for next week.

BCI results certainly didn't hurt, hoping what UMC has in the ground will blow the BCI hits out the water though.

Bauxite JV as always remains the wildcard IMO...

Some spike like behaviour would be very welcome as far as this little black duck is concerned...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 4 2007, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: anne on Friday 04/05/07 11:34am


QUOTE
I just can't help thinking that the last of the channel traders will be gone once those 21c shares go and that a new kind of buyer with different expectations will take over


I know what you mean Anne, I read it pretty much the same way.

Below is my post to KB from yesterday arvo in the ROY thread...

QUOTE
Thanks KB.

I note on the NWE thread that there is concern by some about the legitimacy of this break.

IMO experience when a stock has consolidated for as long and as tightly as NWE has, the payoff is that the break and run is more often then not powerful and parabolic.

I won't be selling any today, and though there is some time before NWE sees action beyond Puffin $$ - the speculation of what these $$ might bring to the company (as you have cottoned onto yourself already) would be more then enough to bring the SP to a more appropriate valuation (~30cish) in a relatively short time period of time.

IMHO...


I expect market speculation and anticipation of what Puffin $$ will bring into the company can drive it to 30c fairly quickly. Even though nothing "appears" to be happening fundamentally.

From market psychology perspective... if there is no pull back or consolidation fear of missing out will get some momentum behind this puppy.

Technically that gap bewteen 19.5/20c will be what I would use to judge future price action, it should get filled, they nearly always do - if it doesn't... I would say hang on to your hats.


  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 4 2007, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 908

In reply to: anne on Friday 04/05/07 11:12am


A purchase now of say.... 1089747 shares would be rather handy indeed to clear out those pesky NWE non-believers.

Think of that warm fuzzy feeling such a gesture would bring...

  Forum: By Share Code

neutron
Posted on: May 3 2007, 04:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 908


Knew you would let me know smile.gif

Market loved it and I sold too early.

Well done.

  Forum: By Share Code

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