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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
neutron
post Posted: May 12 2005, 02:30 PM
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Last night saw the long term trend line broken for EURUSD pair.

Forex markets are cruel and one last attempt at pushing the USD under water must be considered, however illogical it may seem.

If the majors do fall hard under the weight of the USD over the next few days (very likely now) it means GOLD must decouple from the USD, otherwise we could see GOLD also break its LT uptrend (USD).



 
neutron
post Posted: May 8 2005, 03:25 PM
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Again we are right above a lot of major support levels for majors against the USD, courtesy of Friday's NFP's.

As has been discussed here previously, USD downtrend must be considered mature and we should be alert to confirmation of major tops.

Reversal's of longterm trends don't come along very often (obviously) so they provide unique opportunities.

It will also be interesting to see how the Asian currencies hold onto their recent gains against non-USD majors.



 
neutron
post Posted: Apr 27 2005, 04:33 PM
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Thanks for your view Kahuna, most of the forex stuff tends to be TA based.

My understanding is that the USD downtrend is indeed mature and we must be alert to signs of a new trend.

Of course these things tend to happen when we have given up all hope and a sharp spike down in the USD index could be expected in this stage of the cycle.

Just had a very nice move down in the EURUSD, moves are so much cleaner when our American friends are still asleep.

Let's see if 1.2900 can hold - could all in turn around again tonight on the Durable Orders, either way, should be a good session.

 
kahuna1
post Posted: Apr 27 2005, 03:47 PM
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Hi,

Since my last post 6 months ago when the AUD was at 0.7500 my own view has changed somewhat.

Still believe the USD will be in downtrend long term. Budget and trade problems getting worse if anything.

Since then also we have seen US rates raised several times, but since in reality they are at such low levels anyhow don't expect it to save the US dollar.

What has changed is Australia. Our rates after the first rise in a very long time seem to me to be on hold for a while. This in the face or rising US rates will not do a lot for the ozzie.

Short term, this year the Australian trade account deficut will remain wide but possibly could narrow slightly from some higher commodity exports. On the neagtive side almost wiping out any gain will be higher levels cost of imports especially on the Fuel and oil side. Also added to this will be the increased cost of servicing our foreign debt levels.

For these last two reasons I no longer am of the view we will see AUD/USD higher looking forward into 2007/08. Our trade deficut remains at a worrying level even making the US look good. Of just as much concern is the level of foreign debt and with a 14.8% increase last year alone it has me extremely concerned both from the cost of servicing it let alone the actual number. This year will see it grow probably at around a 10% level making it 25% in two years.

With this in mind and despite seeing the US dollar fall into the abyiss ... I suspect at some stage looking forward we are going to see the ozzie dragged along and for almost the same reasons. Our federal goverment is in surplus but thats about the only positive I am able to glean from the whole picture looking extremely long term.

Our current account and trade numbers are shocking, but would have been even more so if we hadn't seen some massive rises in prices received from the metals and coaling industry. My concern would be when it comes around next year to see what prices we get for coal and iron ore if they should fall off in a dramatic way the hole in the trade situation could become a very big focus of financial markets.

Who knows, just a very long term view. Obviously changed from the last one at least for the ozzie. Short term 2005, maybe we do go higher but I feel it will be short lived unless the US dollar really takes a hit in the order of 20% or more in the next 12 months.
Little bit hard to see that happening ... especially with the US Fed raising at every chance it gets.

Cheers



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
neutron
post Posted: Apr 27 2005, 02:28 PM
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The EURUSD came back to the 1.2950 - 1.2980 area nicely allowing me to go long once again in yesterday's trading.

Durable Goods out tonight so have exited all USD trades and will look to re-enter 15-30 minutes after the number comes out.

Still holding EURJPY @ 137.40 with s.l. moved up today to 137.30 - target around 140.

The USD downtrend is still intact and this should be the direction of most trades. EURUSD below 1.2900ish could put the downtrend on notice.

Unlikely that this would happen but sure would throw up some potential big moves if it did.

 
neutron
post Posted: Apr 22 2005, 02:55 AM
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QUOTE (malcom @ Friday 22/04/05 12:51am)

Both Bush and Greenspan have urged China to revalue the Renminbi this week.

The more you push the Chinese the more they will dictate their own time-frame.

AUDUSD is having its first real pullback this week as I type, very nice move, easy to catch - thanks Alan.

Will be looking to pick it up again long the next few days.

EURUSD 1.2950-1.2980 could be a level to look for consolidation => bounce.

USD long-term downtrend still intact.

Friday Fireworks to come...

 


malcom
post Posted: Apr 22 2005, 12:51 AM
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In reply to: theflasherman on Friday 11/02/05 03:46am

It look as though the AU dollar again is having trouble breaking through the 80c US area. I'm actually looking at placing money into Chinese investments. There is a common theory that the Chinese dollar is about 40% undervalued and pressure will be put on them to revalue it.
Rupert Murdoch seems to believe that the revaluation is not a matter of if but when and interesting to note that he just spent up big on a nice little house in China.

 
theflasherman
post Posted: Feb 11 2005, 03:46 AM
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It looks like another assault on 80c for the AUDUSD rate in imminent. These economies are self-correcting and this single factor could significantly undermine the boom in the mining industry. I expect the AUD to remain strong vs the USD.



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brisvegas
post Posted: Jan 6 2005, 06:15 PM
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AUD at "key" level looking at 8hr with trendlines . may form triangle with up move of TL support or could breakdown . Does anyone else follow FX at all , if not i might move this stuff as it seems pointless posting to yourself

.......................... bris
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[b][color=gray]"Anyone can make the simple complicated. Creativity is making the complicated simple."

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brisvegas
post Posted: Jan 5 2005, 09:46 PM
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testing trendline support on 1 min atm . looking for breakdown for entry , may test 50% fib to upside , likely entry

.................... bris
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[b][color=gray]"Anyone can make the simple complicated. Creativity is making the complicated simple."

[/color][/b]
 
 


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