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Base Metals, Discussion
chris
post Posted: Sep 8 2005, 06:24 AM
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CAPE TOWN (Business Day) -- The global iron-ore market should be able to find room for a significant new entrant by 2010 despite the significant increase in capacity from the major producers, according to the latest iron-ore report from Canaccord Capital Corporation.

In the past 14 years China has been the main source of growth in demand for iron ore. Chinese demand grew about 21% a year in that period compared with a 1% increase in demand from the rest of the world.

Canaccord expects China will be the main contributor to growth in iron-ore demand in future, but this will be at the expense of demand elsewhere.

China is expanding its domestic supply of iron ore, but even if it expands to 131-million tonnes of iron ore by next year there will be room for a producer of about 30-million tonnes a year.

If China does not expand production above last year’s levels, there could be room in the market for an additional 50-million tonnes a year of new production by 2010. Niche offerings from new entrants should easily find buyers, the report says.

Canaccord expects crude steel production to reach 1,321-million tonnes a year by 2010, 3.8% higher than last year, and that by 2010 China will account for 38% of global steel production.

By 2010 demand for imported iron ore will be 903-million tonnes, representing growth of 5.5% a year.

While iron-ore prices have more than doubled in the past two years, Canaccord expects them to decline in the next four years. This still means prices will be 12% to 42% higher than they were in 1992.

Assuming the major iron-ore producers deliver their expansion projects on time, the iron-ore market should remain tight until 2008. But there are considerable risks that these projects will not come on stream as scheduled, and that China will not expand production of iron ore at the maximum level.

There are major expansion projects under way at BHP Billiton [NYSE:BHP], Samarco, Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) [NYSE:RIO], Casa de Pedra (CSN), Rio Tinto [NYSE:RTP] and Kumba.

BHP Billiton expects to expand total capacity at its Western Australian operations by more than 40-million tonnes a year by 2008. Samarco, owned 50-50 by BHP Billiton and CVRD, is considering a 7-million-tonnes-a-year expansion at Ponto Ubu in Brazil to bring capacity up to 21-million tonnes a year by 2008.

CVRD has capacity to increase its production of iron ore to 287-million tonnes a year from 211-million last year, Canaccord says.

These are aggressive targets, requiring rapid infrastructure and mine planning.

Also in Brazil, CSN plans to increase production to 40-million tonnes a year by 2007 from 16-million last year.

Rio Tinto plans to increase total production from its Western Australian operations to 176-million tonnes a year in 2007 from 100-million in 2001. The expansion projects are already under way.

Kumba plans to increase production from Sishen to 50-million tonnes a year from 34-million now through using current waste material and some new material.

Other expansion, such as developing Sishen South, will depend on the export channel capacity available in SA.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=12695



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‘Control the oil and you can control entire Continents. Control food and you control people…’ Kissinger 1970’s,
 
chris
post Posted: Sep 6 2005, 07:32 PM
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Copper Set to Drop??

Copper Drops in London on Speculation Smelter Supply Will Grow

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell in London on speculation supplies of the metal will grow as companies such as Vedanta Resources Plc and Jiangxi Copper Co. expand production capacity.

Copper producers have increased output to meet demand for the metal used in plumbing and wiring. Jiangxi, China's biggest copper producer, said last month it boosted first-half output 17 percent. London-based Vedanta, the largest copper producer in India, started its Tuticorin smelter in April.

``We are bearish on copper because we expect the smelter bottleneck to ease and demand growth to remain weak,'' Heath Jansen, Craig Sainsbury and Thomas Wrigglesworth, London-based analysts at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a Sept. 3 e-mailed report. Bloomberg



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‘Control the oil and you can control entire Continents. Control food and you control people…’ Kissinger 1970’s,
 
Blue_Sky_Harvest
post Posted: Jan 29 2005, 12:23 AM
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Green day on LME - all green - wow
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Media-jolt free day - Your living is the factory, the product being manufactured is you the consumer.
 
neutron
post Posted: Jan 21 2005, 08:18 AM
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Though Zinc and Copper have had most of the attention this week, Tin staged somewhat of a bounce last night on the LME after a sharp fall in December.

It is worth noting that Tin is now at short term resistance and a break of 7800 should see Tin gain some traction the next few weeks.

 
trader10
post Posted: Jan 20 2005, 07:58 PM
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Posts: 1,258


Zinc shining


Brad Ricks
Thursday, January 20, 2005


AUSTRALIAN zinc producers have enjoyed a strong run on the ASX with both spot and three-month prices for the base metal on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reaching seven-year highs.

According to media reports, the spot zinc price on the LME was up 2.3% to US57.3c per pound, while the three-month price gained 2.1% to US57.7c/lb.

The improved prices lent credence to predictions made earlier this month by Deutsche Bank analysts that zinc would be the standout performer amongst base metals in 2005.

Zinc's hot run has taken Australian miners like Kagara Zinc and Perilya along for the ride.

Kagara shares have shot up from 90c on December 16 to currently trade at $1.09, while Perilya moved from 75c on December 20 to trade at 96c today.

Perilya produced 282,400t of zinc in concentrate at its Broken Hill operation during the 2004 financial year, while Kagara is producing about 81,000t of zinc concentrate per annum at its Mt Garnet project in North Queensland.

Further up the scale, one of the world's largest zinc producers, Australian-based Zinifex, has watched its share price increase from $2.07 on December 13 to a current price of $2.63.

Zinifex, the restructured public vehicle for failed miner Pasminco, operates the world-class Century mine in Queensland which produces over 500,000t of zinc in concentrate per annum.

It also owns and operates the Rosebery mine in Tasmania, a medium-sized underground mine, which produces about 81,000t of zinc in concentrate per annum.



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