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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
kiril
post Posted: Yesterday, 05:38 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Yesterday, 04:13 PM

Don't give up Mark, your contribution here is well appreciated.

For those interested, here is summary of how the $22 Trillion in US debt is spread. www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Extract:

The U.S. debt was $22 trillion as of February 11, 2019. Most headlines focus on how much the United States owes China, one of the largest foreign owners. What many people don’t know is that the Social Security Trust Fund, aka your retirement money, owns most of the national debt. How does that work and what does it mean?


Mark, for a number of years I followed your detailed account of why the US was trading whilst insolvent so to speak, due to their unfunded Social Security and Pension obligations, but some how they are still muddling through, and while us Ozzie's are experiencing very sad growth rates some how the US is still seeing in-excess of 3% growth and a stock market that just keeps breaking higher.

It seems there is more money being placed on risk trades right now when every sign says it should be risk off.....but as you have shown that the risk of calling it too early and going against the market can cost you substantially in lost opportunity.....until it doesn't I guess.

Kiril


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kahuna1
post Posted: Yesterday, 04:13 PM
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In Reply To: kiril's post @ Yesterday, 02:42 PM

Hahah ... no not there .... then again this ... stupid new site and font ... i give up.




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
nipper
post Posted: Yesterday, 03:44 PM
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In Reply To: kiril's post @ Yesterday, 02:42 PM

I haven't noticed the mobilised masses filling the streets, chanting "Death to Iran" recently. Or the Gašt-e Eršād, morality police on motorbikes, whipping any recalcitrants, yet.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
kiril
post Posted: Yesterday, 02:42 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Yesterday, 12:14 PM

Some interesting posts here Mark, none of which I was aware.

Be careful mate as I fear for your safety....perhaps you should look to see if there are any men in black sitting in a car across the road from your house.

Sounds like you have moved on from analysing markets to US/Iran relations.

I would hazard a guess that you are 100% in cash awaiting for the imminent Armageddon that awaits global markets before you re enter the equity market.

Kiril.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Yesterday, 12:14 PM
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I am not an expert, other than a curious observer with a critical eye and some limited knowledge.
My caveat ...

Well ... its pretty basic stuff ... the weapons ,,, claimed ,,, size of explosive in a sea mine is 500 kg ... v limpet 3-5 kg ...

I repeat ... some limited knowledge !!

The size of blast, damage is consistent NOW with the admitted and accepted Limpet mine. Magnetically attached.

Others can make judgement of evidence presented as I have and 6 others sources I shared.
It is factual, easily observed via grainy video ... or simple searches of the internet .. and NOT emotionally presented.

Now more clear, USA, Saudi Arabia and UK, with Israel being the I told you so and UEA in one side and rest of the logical world being the other in this disbelief and logical examination of facts.

A limpet mine, now clear of the 6 ships hit, 5 were hit by a limpet mine a 10 year old could construct. Its small and size of a briefcase. Cost, and lets go cheap, a watertight likely double gasket, making it virtually unthinkable to ever get water inside, cost about $50- at Walmart or a good hardware store. Powered by NO moving parts, a timer and a countdown one on Ebay for $50- with 365 days and powered by 2 Duracell batteries giving if 3 years life another $50-. Then wires …. BEEP BEEP alarm to not the speaker but detonators and and ON off arming switch between it, utterly foolproof and a soldering kit and chances of any fail less than 1 in a million. This is the 10 year old's built version. So detonators and explosives made into a shaped charge, NOT any difficulty there at all. NONE … longer wires one side and shorter the other to focus the explosion into a shaped charge so the main force goes as a shaped charge in one direction. The same side the magnets are placed. The one up against the hull.

Now explosives and detonators, about 200 nations can get, 100 other groups and yet another 500 or so other groups inside and surrounding governments could get.

Magnets, massively strong ones, well I sent my 10 year old to the tip for old microwaves and removed from 3 for $2. the magnets inside old microwaves, which grip the metal side of a ship with over 25kg force needed to remove them. Or of course like the Ebay electronic countdown timer with 365 days I could buy them there for $20- plus freight. All up, explosives for a govt are cheap and we have a foolproof limpet, utterly reliable, $100- plus say $250- explosives. Well under $500- … but if your buying from a contractor a USA one its $50k. Hardly sophisticated or outside capabilities of my 10 year old nephew and a soldering kit.

Placement, well a moving ship at 15 knots or 25 km and hour I can rule OUT as when it occurred. It is Possible, but Impossible for a lot of reasons. One of the 5 totally impossible. I knew for a month it was LIMPET mines with 3-5 kg explosives NOT naval mines which ARE and could likely only come from a nation state with 500 kg of explosives in a sea mine and it would have broken a tanker in two. A limpet mine, a SINGLE limpet mine on a 50,000 ton tanker would be like trying to shoot a raging Elephant with a 22 gun. A marine mine a real one with 100 plus times force would be a battle tank main gun trying to stop the same elephant.

This aside, USA tried claiming it observed Iranian boats, 20 plus, fast light ones operating in the region. Well since its less than 12 nautical miles and inside Iranian territorial waters the shipping lanes GO to get into and out of the Gulf, of course they operate there. Any suggestion the approached the territorial waters of UAE or encroached or Saudi is absurd. Even the massive bases the USA operates in Saudi, in the UAE there is one with 3,500 personnel an air base the operates drones and maintains a 24 hour a day 6 fighter CAP, Combat Air Patrol and any activity would DOUBLE this with I would say 10 drones, 3 satellites around 15 fighters and then we have the warships USA ones, not the carrier battle group but over 15 operating inside the Gulf which would be, lets say, at battle stations so its absurd this new claim. Let alone NOT recorded in living colour.

As to HOW to place a limpet, firstly, ONE will never sink the tanker. Its merely a harassment. An absurd one. It is maybe possible giving the placement of some for it to have occurred whilst moving, highly unlikely at 25 km an hour underwater and IMPOSSIBLE without a souped up min sub matching speed cavitation and making as much noise as a FOGHORN underwater that even incompetent warships worried about subs, all 15 could hear from 100 km away. IT DID NOT HAPPEN … that way. The ships were stopped and they only stopped inside UAE and Saudi Waters. I can now confirm this from more rubbish released.

Now, one of the 5, it was IMPOSSIBLE to even do it whilst moving. The bombs all placed well under the waterline, U shaped Hull, 4 of the 5 the damage was low down the U shape and 12 foot under water. SOMEONE got wet. Suggesting the grainy photo is a recover of a Limpet a fool knows with NO moving parts, is less than 1 in 100,000 chance to fail, was placed below the gangway, in full sight of anyone looking over the side, exposed when the ship went up and down, exposed when it went side to side, makes intelligence claims even More absurd.

One should never use the words Intelligence with the word Military when it comes to these affairs.

So why do we know with almost 100% likelyhood they were placed in UAE waters or Saudi Waters ? Well tanker number 4 from a month ago, the blast was on the rear, and at the REAR, is a thing called a propeller. You know dummy, the thing that MOVES the ship. Even if remotely possible to place a contact mine on a moving target at 25 km underwater, the force is like sticking your head out of a jet at 500km an hour, possible, I suppose but so difficult and noisy to match pace an absurdity to suggest. To do so and a cleanly placed limpet mine under the REAR of a ship whilst propeller is moving, IS NOT POSSIBLE.

Seriously. What crap. Oh and I might add, to place said mine, despite magnets, bottoms of ships need cleaning with wire brush to remove slime and barnacles so mine is flush against said hull or it WILL bloody drop off. So there is little if any doubt WHERE they were placed. In the most intensely monitored waters on the planet above and to some extent below the water for an incursion. Then again a person in a speedboat and wet-suit and hopefully a re-breather system for no bubbles could do it.

This DOES not rule out IRAN, not suggesting it does. But claimed how put forward is ABSURD and if not insane.

Then the fact its ONE limpet meant to not destroy but, well damage. With a timer I presume if they spent the extra $2- on ebay for their timer has 365 day countdown. The cheaper one has 7 days, so WHY would one set the timer to explode a tanker into YOUR fishing grounds ? Or even time it so its passing close to your own waters, as the last one was, why not set it for say 10 days and its out to sea ? Again does not rule out Iran, but, well, letting it go off near you ? It could be a plot within a plot, but in your fishing grounds ? Oh really ?

An aside. My LIMITED NOVICE … knowledge and I share in memory of friends lost long ago, brave men who gave their lives for their nation protecting it on foreign shores many moons ago. We send brave men to protect us at times, and at others, of late, their sacrifices and misery they endure and inflict, is a disgrace to their past sacrifice for even at times misplaced foreign policy decisions. This, current state of permanent war for 18 years its time to just say NO as a nation.

The again, who cares ? One should.

As somewhat conversant in suspected capabilities, if it came to all out, I suspect prior to Iran being bombed from above, its naval side and more to the point missile capability would likely see 30 plus outright tankers sunk if not more, several massive oil refineries and pipelines destroyed, likely a few precious USA warships overwhelmed and if the Chinese have lent a few toys as I suspect they may have, like EMP and enhanced EMP missiles, the grainy 2 MP pictures will be replaced by phone cups with strings and even hardened EMP circuits will fry and look like plastic exposed to fire.

That is not suggesting a free ride for Iran even if it was them. It would seem, being fair its unlikely from evidence present if not absurd it WAS them. Maybe that is the devious scheme, and it was them. Not however from evidence and claimed course of events or claims it was technically only possible for it to be Iran. It was my mythical 10 year old nephew, and there IS no 10 year old Nephew. Building a waterproof container with a 265 day timer and wining with magnets, less than $100- , wiring up to the detonators and explodes simple. Foolproof uttery reliable and to suggest it fails ? Or is SET to explode in your backyard ? Your main fishing grounds ? A tanker filled with oil ?

Iran is seen in the region as a moderate state. I include another decent view from another.

Saudi Arabia has invited all skeptical journalists to any of its embassy offices to discuss the matter and be enlightened.

Am I being a know all ? I think NOT ... or claiming expert status ? Or being emotional ? Or not logical and critical ?

Whatever !! Factual, clinical and presenting it as best one can a complex situation and ... yep ... a more than passing knowledge which can be easily verified by a mere google search as to what a limpet mine bloody is .... and the rest is COMMON sense. Not some gibberish of emotional illogical conspiracy theory.

The mines were limpets. Placed whist ships were STOPPED almost assuredly.

Anyhow that clip ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y1-jMADEzc...dex=15&t=0s

"No one else wants war": Vijay Prashad on U.S. aggression toward Iran

Make of it what you wish. Capabilities of Iranian Navy already given.

ASK more Questions. GET MORE facts ....

Oh and I found this amusing ...
Anyhow, USA admitted in back channels the reason for the poor quality was they used USA made technology without Chinese parts. So it looked like a 2 MP resolution v 100 MP the drones HAVE and at zero Optical zoom v 50 times they HAVE and at 5 times Digital zoom verses the 500 THEY actually have. Oh and colour let alone black and white.


Australia is like a spineless toad of the USA I might add. An opinion. The main part of the rest are facts.

One cannot place a limpet mine on the rear of the ship, near the propeller without the bloody thing not turning.

Make of all of it what you like. I would PREFER not to follow the USA. For obvious reasons.



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jun 15 2019, 03:20 PM
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Well here are some more rational clips about this incident.


<h1 class="western">Vijay Prashad: U.S. Rushes to Blame Iran for Tanker Attacks as Much of World Pushes for Diplomacy</h1> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktrEIjej9Bo...WL&index=11


<h1 class="western">Japan Says Trump Admin Is LYING About Iran Attack</h1> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf1x2uZrz-c...WL&index=12

the last one its not going to be Iraq 2.0 ….. Iran is TWICE as bad as Iraq and Afghanistan potentially.




See the above link on its navy.


But the Japanese are saying they are lying, USA, the damage to the Japanese ship came from the air, outside the gulf …. outside the straights of Hormuz just where the USA has a carrier force sitting there with a hive of drones above it, a permanent 24 hours a day 4 fighters in the air, off said aircraft carrier AWAC radar planes and 3 satellites let alone the escort of the carriers assets looking at this region …. the attack on this Japanese ship, clearly from the air, I doubt a bloody person flying a kite near the USA carrier force sitting just outside the gulf would not be MISSED.

This is not an unreasonable, nor illogical nor even a stretch of a basic knowledge of what happens with naval operations that anything is NOT recorded or missed.


USA wants war, so be it. Vietnam and Every drubbing the USA has had since then times about 3 is the outcome. Korea 60 years latter is still a mess. Cuba well that went well. Bay of Pigs a classic.


Heaven help us !!

I note the UK is backing these absurd claims. Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?




<h1 class="western">Witness Exposes Pompeo's Lies About Iran Incident</h1> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6nWDVhxJGI...WL&index=14




On this last one … Japanese calling USA a liar. Hit by a flying object, NOT a mine or Limpet mine to be exact, one that's magnetically placed on the side of a resting ship as opposed to a naval mine which is 100 times the size.




Japanese ship hit ABOVE the waterline, by flying objects. UFOs ?




FBI has been called. X files re opened and Scully and Mulder called in. Another TV series.


Clearly the Japanese hit NOT hit by Limpet mine nor a naval mine, NOR a torpedo but a flying object. One I might add encroaching upon USA carrier task force with 50 planes and 15 escort ships, 3 AWACS land based radar in support, 5 Naval versions of it, around 50 drones, 15 helicopters via escorts and 3 if not a lot more satellites looking down from above.
Oh really ... tell me another lie Mr Trump ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jun 15 2019, 03:18 PM
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It now has been revealed, the ship and video in question was the ONE not attacked via Limpet or magnetically placed mines but the Japanese one where Iran rescued the sailors, when it was attacked from the air, above the waterline and NO limpet was seen below the waterline.

USA clarified this first lie, Not Trump who still claims it was them removing a mine. what a dummy .... Japan the owner of the tanker has come out and called it a LIE.

here are a few other views and balanced ones.
First … is the best one.

Where Are the Skeptics as the Drums Roll for War with Iran? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZpR6x_-Y4w...ndex=8&t=0s


"Zero Credibility" Progressives Rip Pompeo For His Shameful Press Conference On Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY8xIAmkBEU...=WL&index=8


Trump Faking Iran Tanker Evidence? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUOi7G2yLag...=WL&index=9


A shot out of a drone via the first camera inside a phone …. is the line I love in this one.



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Jun 15 2019, 01:02 PM
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Oh ...
more stuff out.
USA wants a war. it cant win .... a distraction to keep Trump in ?
Bolton ...

10 years ago .... IRAN regime change ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dav-FsIbeTw...dex=10&t=0s
7 years ago . regime change ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FbYA54_PL8
2 years ago ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy_TEpXVpP4...ndex=9&t=0s
and on and on it goes.


why ... it was clearly limpet mine mine. ...3-5 kg explosives

cost less than $1,000- to produce.

Only way to cause damage as seen last month was being placed whilst ship is NOT moving and that is UAE waters or Saudi where the limpet was placed. But please dazzle me with your view.

I can elaborate as to WHY without doubt the mines were placed whilst Stopped and either at anchor or wharf.

In the meantime the marine capability of Iran is not some idiots in a bathtub.

Here is a decent link. Be bloody afraid for what the USA clearly wants.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...0...zyTXi64CVyZMhU2



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jun 14 2019, 07:25 PM
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oOOH BUT THERE IS MORE ....
Despite my missing Mr Burns icon now on the new site. No PM ,,, and SEEMINGLY NOW WAY TO FIX IT ON THIS NEW SITE ...


Here is part two .... I do have part three as well in mind. It involves flying objects, the X files and FBI called in !! Tomorrow ...
Howdy … again.

Ask and you shall receive.
Reuters report with pictures.

If you believe them mind you. If anything I am in disbelief for many reasons.

Grainy black and white out of focus. Obviously taken from above, via a drone I suspect and according to the timeline in daylight !!

I have watched this repeatedly and some questions.

First the supposition it was some malfunctioning limpet mine with explosives attached to the hull being removed, is insulting and implying incompetence of the Iranian military already.

USA claims this as the smoking gun ? Well …. lets be impartial.

I don't KNOW but this raises MORE doubts than its factual content. YES an Iranian boat approaches the side of the stricken tanker.

I have a 20 MP camera with I think 6 times optical zoom and 100 times digital and can READ a newspaper if I desired at 2 kms away. A drone, one that uses facial recognition to bomb from above has far far superior optics.

So why this grainy fuzzy rubbish on this link ?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-iran...e-idUSKCN1TF071

It is without doubt taken from a drone due to the VIEW inside the small boat and elevation. Unless the USA warship was right alongside supposedly when they removed this OBJECT …. the drone is the source.

Now lets look at location of where this boat pulls up. Some knowledge and common sense needed here. On a large tanker or ship the ONLY place to get on or off at sea is NOT at the BOW/ Front or Stern, as any sea will have them rising up and down like a yo yo. So when say a harbour pilot gets onto a tanker or ocean liner he enters and exits from the middle of the ship.

A stricken tanker, exiting to boats via a ladder down the side, the only place to exit …. the MIDDLE of the ship. Look up in the video, where the Iranian small boat pulls up ? Right above it the railing has a gap … where the crew obviously exited and likely the ladder still sits against the HULL. So the location where they pulled up is totally consistent with them going … “Hey is there anyone still aboard ?” We ONLY see them as they pull away I might add.

Now look as the actual small Iranian boat. Note on the side two round rubber I presume tyre type things to protect the boat as it pulls along side wharves and so on. If you have ever seen a Tug boat with massively reinforced bows it has often tractor tyres in that case to protect the Tanker or Liner which will get damaged not the TUG and in the case of any small boat, say a harbour Pilot boat approaching an ocean liner to get the pilot aboard the opposite is the case. The Smaller more fragile boat needs buffers and fenders so to absorb some of the shock of say a 2cm steel hull rising and falling verses a fiberglass boat. That is why there were tyres along the side, but this BOAT was going NOSE on to the tanker even clearly seen via fuzzy crap drone pictures. Any small boat owner or novice knows you DEPLOY buffers and fenders as you approach and then when you depart they are removed.

There is NO way in the world any naval officer or even midshipman on small boats WOULD NOT DEPLOY this protection. Without it, a buffer your front end could get ripped off.

I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown even PRIOR to the next bit leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….

Now I mentioned the arrogant assumption and implication that it was a limpet explosive mine that malfunctioned that was being removed. Insulting and arrogant as always the USA view of others. They just happened to place it BELOW the egress and likely exit point one which clearly was used when the sailors left the ship ?

So lets go on. A malfunctioning bomb. Oh bliss. Lets get 10 people standing around said mine when its removed supposedly and then THROW it on the deck. That's clearly what occurred. Lets all stand around malfunctioning ordinance and a bomb, throw it on the deck and then ONE actually kicks the same thing out of the way.



Are you kidding me ? Seriously ? Is this a joke ? Is the USA so arrogant as to serve a grainy video that supposedly was taken in daylight and suggest Iranians are that incompetent that firstly they had a malfunctioning limpet, then knowing it was malfunctioning instead of having one or two people close to it, in case it explodes …. they throw it clearly on the deck with … let me count … at least 10 people standing as close as they can to an unexploded malfunctioning BOMB.

Gee I did go through the fact that Iran is far from incompetent despite this in a military sense. Its not even absurd this USA crap, its insulting.

I cannot believe anyone dealing with explosives would throw something on the deck then kick it. I can however believe that would be the case with a rubber or plastic buffer or fender to protect the BOW of a small boat verses a massive tanker going up and down.

Of course one can never know but on the balance of probabilities and the fact that NONE of the idiots leading this USA side have any military experience of substance and clearly no common sense, serving this as proof ?

I am insulted. Of course I have no idea if they did it, Iran, but this video, is what it is. I would call the USA ambassador in immediate and ask for a please explain !!

Then again we are gutless sadly as a nation verses USA. I wish is was not so.

I repeat again ... I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….
All views are my own opinions. No guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Consult a professional investment advisor before investing. Or maybe listen to someone who has no qualifications disputing irrefutable facts on the internet and become poor.



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  indeficit  kiril  
 
jacsar
post Posted: Jun 14 2019, 07:22 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jun 14 2019, 07:00 PM

Thanks kahuna1...spot on


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