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Next Australian Recession


When do you believe the next Australian Recession will occur?  

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Ah, the wisdom of crowds - in 2007, the largest cohort 45% selected "No recession in next 4 years" in this rather old thread

This Is Why Australia Hasn't Had a Recession in Over 25 Years by Michael Heath, Bloomberg

Australia is close to seizing the global crown for the longest streak of economic growth thanks to a mixture of policy guile and outrageous fortune. But the nation is creaking under the weight of its own success.


While growth is being underpinned by population gains and resource exports to China, failure to spur productivity has meant stagnant living standards and electoral discontent; a property bubble fueled by record-low interest rates has driven household debt to levels that threaten financial stability; and a timid government facing political gridlock could lose the nation's prized AAA rating as early as May because of spiraling budget deficits.


Australia's last recession -- defined locally as two straight quarters of contraction -- occurred in 1991 and was a

to eight years of reform designed to create an open, flexible and competitive economy. But it also proved cathartic, paving the way for a low-inflation, productivity-driven expansion......


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  • 3 years later...

A Deep Recession Can't Be Ruled Out



As the world battles with the COVID-19 pandemic, our assessment of the economic and investment implications depends upon three fundamental issues. These are

1. the duration of the output gap,

2.the policy responses to mitigate the output gap, and

3.whether or not the crisis will result in fundamental and lasting changes in consumer behaviour.

- by Hamish Douglass
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