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Danville

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"Disappoint" by how much?

The Dow futures did dip below 9,000 again, but seem to have steadied above 8,950. That's a fall of 60 points, which still leaves a substantial gain in the physical market.

Still - we'll have to see where our market takes us today. On a Friday it's usually a good idea to take profit...

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Hi Blueice,

 

The Dow Futures are improving (wouldn't be surprised to see it go positive around lunch time here)

 

Microsoft is down (IMO) because they are between main product launches hence low sales (Windows 7 is launched next month)

Amex is down (IMO) because people are paying cards late. Worth nothing AMEX has been a bright star on Wall Street for the last 6 months hence people have been looking for anything slightly negative to pull it back.

 

Next week will be the real key, month end and TA wise (happy for other TA views, Arty ?) if we can hold these highs until then I think its "all on"

 

Cheers

Matt

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Hi Matt,

re: XJO outlook for month end - the current rally has surprised me to some extent and I had to adjust my expectation for last week's index option very quickly upwards by a 100. Similarly, BHP looked for a while "overcooked" and I was leaning towards a correction downward for next Thursday's stock option series. Since early this month, BHP's "sweet spot" appeared to be below $35. For all I can see, that's still the case; but that would mean XJO (being strongly influenced by its heaviest-weighted constituent) would have to drop significantly - maybe to levels last seen early this month.

 

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While I can't imagine what could cause XJO to drop by more than 200 points within 4 days, I'll take precautions and protect my profits by at least reducing my exposure to stocks that are gapping up and threaten with a top reversal doji. Just as BHP does today :unsure:

 

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By Colin Twiggs

July 23, 2009 10:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. AET)

Five major indexes have all commenced a primary up-trend, signaling the start of a bull market. A word of caution: the recovery is exceedingly fragile. I will only feel comfortable with the bull signal when the Fed and other central banks start raising interest rates. And that is unlikely to occur for some time ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ without risking a second contraction. Keep your guard up ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ and your stops tight.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow broke through 9000, exceeding its January high to confirm a primary advance with a target of 10000*. The spike in Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) indicates abnormal buying pressure.

 

S&P 500

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 950 to signal a primary advance. Penetration of 1000 would offer a target of 1300*.

 

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Major media is now repeating 'stories' that there is a possible US bank holiday late Sept, with rumors that the US embassies were told to hoard local currency enough for a year, lots of things like this, the Shultz newsletter, Jim Sinclair, and lots of others discussing on this and even predictions that Sept 30 is USD doomsday and a possible US Bank holiday and so on.

 

I have followed this story for weeks. I would like to point out that one reason we have the reputation we have, (we are very concerned but try to be careful on such rumors, stories or whatever, even if it makes it to mainstream media) is we try not to repeat things like this unless we feel there is enough merit.

 

One thing you get from us is a few grains of salt on many rumors that are constantly out, we filter these and use a healthy scepticism. There are a great number of disturbing wild stories constantly circulating (wild does not mean untrue, just very serious sounding) and we try to not be part of a rumor mill.

 

I am not yet saying this rumor is untrue. I am saying we are analyzing it, and a bit skeptical.

 

 

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Next week will be the real key, month end and TA wise (happy for other TA views, Arty ?) if we can hold these highs until then I think its "all on"

 

27-07-2009 4139.60 4,171,086,644 996,753,458

24-07-2009 4089.80 5,280,990,499 1,185,100,549

23-07-2009 4064.10 6,101,109,857 1,190,213,440

22-07-2009 4068.50 4,757,045,872 1,047,096,742

21-07-2009 4050.70 3,909,542,528 915,770,813

20-07-2009 4050.30 3,345,698,325 818,167,644

17-07-2009 4000.80 3,503,318,159 846,357,955

16-07-2009 3995.60 5,092,259,521 1,103,972,917

15-07-2009 3924.50 3,787,024,282 926,942,838

14-07-2009 3867.10 3,582,922,435 794,070,067

13-07-2009 3737.50 3,048,830,346 744,299,894

 

16 & 17 (within 5 points)

20 & 21 (within 5 points)

22 & 23 (within 5 points)

 

Looking back to me it seems VERY controlled, that said today seems to have run a little to hard (I'd suggest tomorrow a close between 4130-4150)

 

Cheers

Matt

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