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Index Trading


Danville

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Hey Ross.

 

Love your blog. Keep it coming.

 

Just one stupid question. What the hell index are you trading??? I can't make hide nor hare of your numbers. I shorted xjo at 3450 yesterday. Gonna let it ride for now.

 

 

thanks for the feedback. (good to know I'm not talking/typing to myself)

 

I'm trading what IG call the mar-09 forward. It's basically exactly the same as the real futures contract, but with a point extra width each way for IG to collect on. Trading their mini version which is $5/point.

Reason I trade this instead of their version of the XJO is to get used to how the real futures move, with the long term aim of trading in the real market and not with a CFD shop taking the other side.

 

 

 

Although I've been going crap the last 2 days. Picked it to be a down day each morning before the open, and then for some reason tried to go long at every opportunity.

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'cos you won't get much, and this means people won't feel the urge to buy/spend.

that's also assuming if you still have a job.

 

the problem right now is, it is either you don't have a job, or you fear that you will lose your job.

this is all about people's sentiment.

when you feel that, or are in that position, you are not going to spend too much no matter how much extra money you have.

 

the best way to go about it? create job.

when people have job, or when people know that they can find another job if they get lay off, they are not as fearful, they will spend necessary money, this creates a cycle which help the economy.

 

hence, i am fine with the infrastructure, school, etc spending, as it creates or sustain jobs.

just not bonus, as it is not the core of the problem.

 

Why is spending/buyer the solution?

I think my thoughts are along the lines of eb's joke

 

> "Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?

>

> "A. It is money that the federal government will

> send to

> taxpayers.

>

> "Q. Where will the government get this money?

> "A. From taxpayers.

 

 

Basically, I just don't see how spending/getting into debt is a solution to a problem caused by spending/too much debt

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Rossw, you are right, it is not the exact solution we need.

However, it does sort of help the situation; the idea is to slow the drop, maintain or creating job, and hopefully we turn the corner. When that happen, people will start spending their own money without government sending them a cheque.

 

mind you, if it drags on, we will be in a deeper hole.

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I think we got a short term pop because Obama didn't screw up the press conference. We will probably get another relief pop when this package passes. But then reality sets in. I suppose I wouldn't be so adamantly opposed to this if the US actually HAD the money to spend. But they don't. They will have to print or borrow the money. OMG what are they thinking?? The US govt. is taking the Ponzi Scheme to a whole new level. It is simply not sustainable.

 

Just playing the short side today - BHP, CBA, and NCM. Haven't decided yet if I'll hold overnight. Geitner has me worried. Sure sounds like a big fat rabbit he'll be pulling out of his hat. Just not sure if that will be a good thing.

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Geitner has me worried. Sure sounds like a big fat rabbit he'll be pulling out of his hat. Just not sure if that will be a good thing.

============================================================

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29110784

 

the words "pissed off" been used by steave??? :lol:

 

bochman

leve ANZ alone, if it doesn't pop up when market is good, then something smelly that we are not aware of!!

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hi- could someone please clarify this for me ?

is this the same financial package that they passed last year (the T.A.R.P) for about 700 billion ?

 

if its another package... then the markets will probably react the same way as when the TARP package was approved in their congress and get sold off

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mind you, if it drags on, we will be in a deeper hole.

 

that's why I'd rather not go into defecit spending.

 

 

today's thoughts throughout the day have just been posted to my blog (see link in sig). Another crap one on my behalf.

http://oztrading.blogspot.com/2009/02/tuesday-10-feb.html

 

Bit of deja-vu this morning. Rallied throughout the night session (I almost put on a long in the low 3440's at about 5:20 yesterday arvo but thought better of it - night session too wide/risky). Closed this morning at 3493 (yesterday morning's close was only 7 points higher). So will the day session be a repeat of yesterday? Bit of a move up and then a fall throughout the day? I'll watch it closely if it gets above 3500..

 

10am - match roughly unched and fell about 10 points to a bit under 3480. It's looking a bit oversold, but after yesterday's burnings I'm just waiting and watching

 

10:30am - getting close to oversold down here in the mid 3460's. Not really much action though. I'm waiting for a clear signal before getting involved.

 

11:04am - wise to avoid that long earlier. the bounce up wasnt even 10 points before it reversed back down to a new low of 3452. Gonna be another slow/low volume day until people find out how much they'll be stimulated by Obama and co. Meanwhile the sell the open would've paid off today. There was no spike up like yesterday, just straight into a downtrend.

 

11:14am - itchy trigger finger here. Thinking about getting long at 3451. hmmm..

11:16am - 3450 seems to be holding. Long at 3451.5. There's 30/60/50 in the bid depth beneath me, lets see if they're real or not

11:18am - guess not. new lows set at 3440.

11:22am - that was quick. out for -15 points.

 

11:32am - so the trend is clearly down and I get itchy to get long...? And of course end up burnt. Gotta sort that out and know when it's time to 'catch the knife' and when that trend is my friend.

 

12:21pm - still falling. new low just set at 3425.

 

1:19pm - this is quite the rut I've got myself in.. Total for Feb so far is 14 trades, 3 wins, 11 losses, net -144 points. Even a paper trade I just wrote down would've got stopped out. There's been some good trends the last 2 days as well, which would've been profitable if just rode along. Thinking about sitting on the sidelines for the rest of the week and just doing some more paper trading..

 

1:48pm - did a double bottom just get formed in the mid 3420's? or am I just looking for another excuse to get long?

 

2:30pm - not really a double bottom back there. Just dribbling sideways. Some people on sharescene.com were saying there's some Obama speech on tv, market's been going sideways, I guess everyone's just watching their tv. Our work tv has just switched over to the cricket, much more interesting than Obama.

 

3:20pm - from following a link and then another etc from sharescene I've stumbled across the website from Davin Clarke which has his trading blog. With a profit over a year and a half of 1.5mil I'll be spending quite some time reading up on him. Here's the links:

http://www.trade4edge.com/ --> davin clarke's current site

http://davinstradingreport.blogspot.com/ --> his old trading site

 

3:56pm - bit of a late rally here into the match. back up towards 3450.

 

4:30pm - wasn't really watching that last half hour. Looks like a tease break above 3450 which then got sold back down to 3430 region. Closed at 3433. Been reading more of the posts from davin clarke. Looks like he's making some serious cash (like $5k/day over a year). Now that's what I'm talking about!!

 

As said above, total for Feb -144

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