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In reply to: Danville on Sunday 21/09/08 09:24pm


ASIC has made the same market maker exemption as SEC. In the link my prev post.

I would gather that CMC could do what they want, along with my provider, provided that they don't place short orders in the physical market?


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In reply to: Danville on Sunday 21/09/08 08:39pm

Who's gonna be left to buy when the shorts are done covering???



kinda dis-agree your bearishness Dan.


here is my view, don't know if it make sense to you.


those hedge funds is there to make money, if they can't short market to do that, there is only one way left, ramp the market dizy high again to achieve their goals.

give them two weeks or month the most, when they collected enough chips, you will see the change tone in media------blowing bull horns day and night---" BRIC's --stronger for longer... US will on the recovry path.... bla bla yardie yarda" market goes up every week!


no fundies dare to sit on the cash anymore, becouse of their performce. plus if that much money will be printed what is the use of holding the cash?


when market been inflated dizy high, Gov. change the rules laws again, then market crashs again!!


long live the free market capitalism!! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/thumbdown.gif


i will be buying any dips from next week on!!





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In reply to: early birds on Sunday 21/09/08 09:30pm

don't know if it make sense to you


Hi eb

Makes perfect sense to me. I'm buying. Volume Friday around the world suggest others are also - big others. Just watching for the first round of profit taking before getting too deep. Some huge gains already made in 2 days (biggest 2 day gain since 87) & ppl still nervous - well - I am anyway:) But that's healthy - no fear can get you killed.

Good luck


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From McHugh:


As a trader, I stopped getting disgusted at government manipulation of markets several years ago, didnÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t pretend it wasn't happening, just tried to find when it was coming. I decided to develop an indicator that would tell me when the probability was extremely high that the Master Planners would intervene. That approach has served us well, and that indicator is known as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) Indicator. It flashed a new ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“buyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ signal Monday, rising above positive + 20.00, ,warning that the decline from August 11th was terminal. The Industrials have risen 565 points since that buy signal. When this measure rises above positive + 20.00, it is usually early, but very right, an early warning indicator telling us to enjoy the decline for a few more trading days but get ready for a spike rally.

The current government market intervention (ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“manipulationÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ is probably a more appropriate word, that transpired the past two weeks, reaching crescendo Thursday on a rumor, and Friday on an announcement) is one of the most dramatic since the 1930ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s. It really puts into question the notion of U.S. markets being under capitalism, not socialism. The government nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week, announced its intent to nationalize AIG, a component of the Dow 30, this week, and then pulled out all the stops with the Paulson manifesto Friday. Not sure why he didn't nationalize Lehman Bros, unless it was personal, as he came from competitor Goldman Sachs, and enjoyed watching
them declare bankruptcy. Okay, maybe I am a bit cynical ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ maybe.

Before getting into market performance Friday, and the forecast, letÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s cover what we know
about this historic redefining of the rules of the game that Paulson has placed on the table for Congress to consider next week:

1) The Securities and Exchange Commission has put a ban on short selling (that is entering
into a contract to sell a stock at todayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s price in the future without owning it now, in effect placing a bet the price of the stock will drop) on 799 financial institution stocks, not on any other stocks, through October 2nd, with the possibility of extending the ban for 30 days. This does not prohibit put options.
2) AIG was tossed from the Dow Industrials and replaced with food giant Kraft on Thursday.
3) The Treasury said it would ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“insureÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ up to $50 billion in struggling moneymarket fund investments at financial companies (that are not FDIC insured).
4) The Fed announced they would make ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“unlimited fundsÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ available to banks to finance purchases of asset-backed commercial paper from money market funds (This will be in the trillions).
5) Banks would be allowed to sell their illiquid bad loan assets to the Treasury in exchange for cash.

What is clear from the getgo, is that this is a bailout of Wall Street, not Main Street, that it is going to cost trillions, not billions, and the bill will be paid by both the American taxpayer, and the American consumer via a higher  ost of living. Yes, this is going to be hyperinflationary. The Treasury will issue notes to the Fed, the Fed will come up with the cash (printed out of thin air), and the cash will be handed to Wall Street. This process fails miserably to solve the problem, which is the dire financial condition of the average American household. The trillions of dollars being printed out of thin air
should be going to each and every household in America, not Wall Street. If so, Wall Street would benefit because their toxic assets would become quality assets as the American household pays off its debts (cash to Wall Street). But what would you expect when the Treasury Secretary authoring this plan is the former Chairman of the largest Wall Street firm in America, Goldman Sachs, which also happens to be a surrogate for the Plunge Protection Team. Because the plan fails to bailout the American household, it
will fail ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ period. But, fail with an even higher cost of living structure than we have today.

This plan assures that the Dollar will tank. It will lose its value as bad loans are replaced with fresh printed cash. Precious metals will skyrocket as this plan is executed.

As for the lunacy of banning short trading against 799 financial institutions (there are over
10,000 financial institutions in the U.S., so only some are protected from bets they will decline), the Wall Street Journal noted on Friday, ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“essentially this only allows investors to bet that stocks will rise, and bans investing strategies used by hundreds of mutual funds, pension funds, endowments and governments. These firms use short-selling to protect themselves from unexpected huge losses, some financial firms selling short to offset trades made by their clients so they arenÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t exposed to large market moves.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

Short selling is not only legal, or should we say it was until Friday, but is necessary, and can be quite good for the markets. In a short-sale of a stock, what it does is it requires a purchase of that stock by the time the short sale is contracted to close. In effect, short sales create future demand, as shorts must buy stocks, thereby helping stabilize and even push stock prices higher in the future. Further, if there are an abundant number of short positions, a short-covering rally is possible, driving market  prices sharply higher. Banning short selling removes these invisible bids. Banning short selling is robbing mBears and hedge traders who rightfully are entitled to profits. Without short selling, it will be harder
to properly gauge the true value of a stock. It could create an artificially high market price that will drop far more severely in a future event than otherwise would have occurred.

Banning short selling is essentially a magicianÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s trick to take the focus off the ball. It is a witch hunt. Someone has to take the hit and the Master Planners have decided to blame the shorts, which is pure lunacy. Shorts had nothing to do with the economic mess this nation finds itself in. This administration continues to equate the economy with Wall Street. It believes if stocks are fine, then the American  household is just fine. Nonsense. Shorting is a way of identifying fundamental problems with a company. The health of the economy has nothing to do with whether or not a stock is shorted.

HereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s the problem. This government intervention, one that will cost trillions, has failed to bail out the American household, thus is destined to fail, after trillions of new dollars hyperinflate our economy and debase our currency. The expectations for success are running high, creating a false sense that everything is going to be okay. This sets up a monster financial collapse that will dwarf the risks of today once it becomes clear that this program has failed. While old assets are swept into the vaults of the Fed in exchange for cash, via the arms of the U.S. Treasury, more bad assets will be created at an even faster pace as the American household, who is income starved, debt laden, and credit report deficient, will soon get hit by another tsunami of higher costs of living, making it impossible to pay their bills on time.

The Master Planners don't give a royal rip about the consumer. For example, Credit Card company schemes have managed to force 30 percent interest rates on what will be forever debt due to technicalities and small print. They mail statements within days of due dates, creating accidental late payments, granting them the right to raise rates to 30 percent. They lower credit limits without proper notice, consumers use their cards over the new limit by accident, and get hit with an increase in their interest rates to 30 percent. If they are late, their credit report gets creamed. Yet, now these credit card companies,
Wall Street firms, are being bailed out at taxpayers expense to the tune of trillions without doing a darned thing to improve this economy. The cost of this Paulson manifesto will be trillions on top of the already $600 billion spent in specific corporate bailouts this year. If they are spending trillions anyway, debasing the Dollar anyway,  then the American household should also be bailed out. A rebate of the past ten years income taxes
should be sent directly to each and every household, with the caveat that half of that money must be used  to pay off existing debt. If no debts, great, the household gets to keep the entire rebate. Further, the unconstitutional confiscation of wealth known as the real estate tax should be eliminated and replaced with a sales tax. Also, a usury interest rate ceiling of 10 percent should be imposed immediately upon all financial institutions, the key beneficiaries of the Paulson manifesto. The Treasury should begin issuing a
new currency that it backs with precious metals, and finally, the Federal Reserve should be abolished. The thinking here is trickle up economics is the medicine that is needed, not more trickle down.

The Dow Industrials rose 368.75 points Friday, closing at 11,388.44, precisely at its 50 day
moving average of 11,393. NYSE volume fell to 115 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 86 percent, with advancing issues leading at 87 percent, with upside points at 91 percent. Friday was NOT a 90 percent up day, which would have signaled a high probability of a huge Bull Market move starting, thus keeping the risk of further price decay intact. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 25 points to 436, while Supply Pressure fell 10 points to 450, telling us most of the buying was shorts covering, for the second day in a row. Paulson should know better, that without shorts, this past two day rally would
have been very modest in comparison. He is sacrificing future buying for a restraint on the downside risk over the short-run. The Demand Power/Supply Pressure indicators generated an enter short position signal September 4th, and remains there Friday. FridayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s McClellan Oscillator rose to positive +11.71. The Summation Index was essentially flat at negative ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“476.78. NYSE New Highs rose to 229, New Lows down at 119.

We got a borderline Hindenburg Omen observation Friday. The lower of NewHighs and Lows was 3.61 percent, which meets the minmum requirement of 2.20 percent, but failed the McClellan Oscillator test, because it was a positive reading, albeit barely. But the point here is, this remains an unhealthy market, even on a 400 point up day. The Hindenburg Omen from June 2008 remains on the clock through October. There is key resistance at the IndustrialÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s 50 day moving average, 11,393, and again at 11,750, the January 2000 top.

As suggested in yesterdayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s newsletter, our September 19th +/- phi mate turn date was a bottom, a short-term one, and arrived on Wednesday, September 17th, at 10,609.66. We expect a rally for week or two, then a Plunge, starting around our next phi mate turn date, September 29th (new Moon) +/- a few days. Enjoy this rally because the next decline could be horrid.

We also pointed out earlier in the week that this is an options expiration week, that the Master Planners must come to the aid of Wall Street uncovered put options writers, that a rally is essential into this Friday, September 19th. PaulsonÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s announcement regarding Trust Resolution Company B was probably not coincidental. He got a nearly 800 point rally to bail out options underwriters as the clock wound down on expiration day.
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Does This mean an up day on the ASX??


As you may be aware ASIC and the ASX have in effect banned the creation of new short positions in securities, registered managed investment schemes and certain other government securities.


In support of an orderly market CMC Markets is prohibiting shorting the following Australian Share and Sector CFD instruments from 9am (AEST) Monday, Sept 22nd 2008:


1. TAL - Tower Australia Group

2. BOQ - Bank of Queensland

3. BEN - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank

4. IAG - Insurance Australia Group

5. Sun - Suncorp-Metway

6. AMP - AMP Ltd

7. MQG - Macquarie Group

8. SGB - St George Bank

9. QBE - QBE Insurance Group

10. ANZ - Australia & New Zealand Bank

11. NAB - National Australia Bank

12. CBA - Commonwealth Bank 13. WBC - Westpac Bank

14. MCW - Macquarie Countrywide

15. CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group

16. IFL - IOOF Holdings

17. ROK - Rock Building Society

18. WBA - Wide Bay Australia

19. AXA - AXA Asia Pacific

20. BNB - Babcock and Brown

21. PPT - Perpetual

22. HGI - Henderson Group

23. AUW - Australia Wealth Management

24. AUSFINANCE - Australian Finance Sector


If you currently hold an open short position, you are not forced to close this and if you need to sell in order to close a long position your order will also be accepted.


International regulators have formalised a similar position and we anticipate that other regulators and authorities around the world will make similar announcements. We will do our best to keep you informed of any changes.


Should you have any questions regarding this, then please contact the Client Services team:


Telephone: 1300 660 262

Outside AUS: + 61 2 8221 2180

Email: clientservices@cmcmarkets.com.au


Best regards,


The CMC Markets Team





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